Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.     

Viability of the Endangered Little Bustard <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tetrax tetrax</Emphasis> Population of Western France

Stochastic computer simulations are used to evaluate the sensitivity of Little bustard population parameters, estimating the survival probabilities of the seven endangered Little bustard populations of central-western France for which conservation actions are currentlybeing or have been implemented. Different scenarios of parameter compensation for those nuclei to establish parameter levels assuring population viability are discussed. Adult survival, productivity per female, initial population size and carrying capacity were the most sensitive parameters in a hypothetical, isolated population. Juvenile survival also affected population survival, although its sensitivity was lower. Sex ratio did not have a linear effect on population survival, but probability of extinction increased for extreme values. Productivity per female and initial population size, varied strongly among the populations studied, determining their average time of extinction and growth rate. When a metapopulation scenario was simulated, the survival probabilities of each population and the metapopulations stayed close to 1.0 if no mortality was associated to migration. When mortality during migration was included in the simulations, the metapopulation's probability of survival significantly decreased under 90%. This approach may help managers to correctly address conservation measures and design effective strategies, which should be directed mainly to improve productivity, enhance female survival, and minimise mortality during migration (e.g. promoting insect-rich nesting substrates, avoiding female killing and nest destruction at harvesting, reducing the risk of collision with powerlines, or controlling poaching).     

秀丽高原鳅种群生存力分析及最小可存活种群数估算

秀丽高原鳅(Triplophysa venusta)系金沙江的土著种, 是云南省重要保护鱼类; 由于其栖息水域建设水电站, 加之云南连年干旱, 导致其种群数量锐减。采用漩涡模型对不同生境下的秀丽高原鳅种群生存力进行了模拟分析, 并估算了其最小可存活种群数。结果表明: 灾害是影响种群长期存活的关键因子, 种群繁殖率和性未成熟个体死亡率对种群生存力影响较大, 而种群的环境容纳量大小则无显著影响; 若连续进行40年的成鱼捕获(2000尾/年), 可使种群在100年内的灭绝概率增至100%, 而若连续进行20年的人工增殖放流(1000尾1龄鱼/年), 可使100年内的灭绝概率降至35.8%。通过模拟计算, 使种群在当前生境下以95%的概率存活100年所需的最小种群数为16000尾。由此可见, 减少灾害发生频率、降低性未成熟个体死亡率、增加繁殖率以及进行人工增殖放流是秀丽高原鳅种群保护与恢复的有效措施。研究为秀丽高原鳅种群保护、渔政管理与人工增殖放流提供了理论依据。     

Steady states in population models with monotone,stochastic dynamics

Existence, uniqueness and asymptotic stability of stochastic equilibrium are established in multi-dimensional population models with monotone dynamics.     

Smoke on the water: Can riverine fish populations recover following a catastrophic fire‐related sediment slug?

Abstract In early 2003 a series of large, wildfire‐related sediment slugs occurred in streams in the south‐eastern Australian alpine region. Back‐pack and boat‐mounted electrofishing were used to measure changes in riverine fish fauna after one particularly large sediment slug which started in an upland stream and then travelled downstream through 200 km of third and fourth order stream. Twelve impact sites and eight control sites were surveyed where there were previous data on fish populations. The sites were surveyed directly after the sediment slug had passed and then 12, 24 and 36 months after. Immediately after the sediment slug, fish abundances fell by between 95–100% at four impact sites in the upper reaches of the study area, primarily due to the effect of low‐dissolved oxygen levels. Twelve months later fish numbers were still decreased in the upper catchment but showed signs of recovery after 24 months. Further downstream, where water quality was not as severely affected by the sediment slug, the effects on native fishes were less apparent. The circumstances of these events represented a unique opportunity to obtain baseline data regarding the effects of post‐fire disturbances on fish, and their time to recovery. If fire were to occur in catchments where endangered species exist, our results suggest that actions such as translocation may be required to ensure the long‐term survival of threatened species.     

The Role of Density Regulation in Extinction Processes and Population Viability Analysis

We review the role of density dependence in the stochastic extinction of populations and the role density dependence has played in population viability analysis (PVA) case studies. In total, 32 approaches have been used to model density regulation in theoretical or applied extinction models, 29 of them are mathematical functions of density dependence, and one approach uses empirical relationships between density and survival, reproduction, or growth rates. In addition, quasi-extinction levels are sometimes applied as a substitute for density dependence at low population size. Density dependence further has been modelled via explicit individual spacing behaviour and/or dispersal. We briefly summarise the features of density dependence available in standard PVA software, provide summary statistics about the use of density dependence in PVA case studies, and discuss the effects of density dependence on extinction probability. The introduction of an upper limit for population size has the effect that the probability of ultimate extinction becomes 1. Mean time to extinction increases with carrying capacity if populations start at high density, but carrying capacity often does not have any effect if populations start at low numbers. In contrast, the Allee effect is usually strong when populations start at low densities but has only a limited influence on persistence when populations start at high numbers. Contrary to previous opinions, other forms of density dependence may lead to increased or decreased persistence, depending on the type and strength of density dependence, the degree of environmental variability, and the growth rate. Furthermore, effects may be reversed for different quasi-extinction levels, making the use of arbitrary quasi-extinction levels problematic. Few systematic comparisons of the effects on persistence between different models of density dependence are available. These effects can be strikingly different among models. Our understanding of the effects of density dependence on extinction of metapopulations is rudimentary, but even opposite effects of density dependence can occur when metapopulations and single populations are contrasted. We argue that spatially explicit models hold particular promise for analysing the effects of density dependence on population viability provided a good knowledge of the biology of the species under consideration exists. Since the results of PVAs may critically depend on the way density dependence is modelled, combined efforts to advance statistical methods, field sampling, and modelling are urgently needed to elucidate the relationships between density, vital rates, and extinction probability.     

Is the Atlantic Forest protected area network efficient in maintaining viable populations of Brachyteles hypoxanthus?

Habitat loss and fragmentation are serious threats to biodiversity conservation in the Atlantic Forest. A network of protected areas is essential to the protection of native biodiversity. However, internal and external factors may threaten the preservation of biota, thus population viability analyses (PVA) are important tools in protected area design and management planning. A PVA was carried out, using the computer package VORTEX, to assess the effectiveness of the protected area network within the Atlantic Forest in Brazil in retaining viable populations of the endemic primate Brachyteles hypoxanthus. The Brazilian Atlantic Forest has 42 protected areas within B. hypoxanthus geographic distribution area, and only five of those were considered to retain viable populations for 50 generations, whereas 28 were predicted to suffer from genetic decay, seven from both genetic decay and demographic stochasticity, and two of them are probably extinct populations. The model indicates that although the protected area network of the Atlantic Forest will likely keep B. hypoxanthus populations for the next 50 generations, most of them (35 out of 42, or 83%) will be facing some kind of demographic and/or genetic problem and will probably need management actions to be implemented in order to ensure their persistence.     

Combining Population Viability Analysis with Decision Analysis

Management of endangered species requires methods to assess the effects of strategies, providing a basis for deciding on a best course of action. An important component of assessment is population viability analysis (PVA). The latter may be formally implemented through decision analysis (DA). These methods are most useful for conservation when used in conjunction. In this paper we outline the objectives and the potential of both frameworks and their overlaps. Both are particularly helpful when dealing with uncertainty. A major problem for conservation decision-making is the interpretation of observations and scientific measurements. This paper considers probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches to assessment and decision-making and recommends appropriate contexts for alternative approaches.     

Comparative ecology of the European eel, Anguilla anguilla (L., 1758), in a large Iberian river

A total of 1,816 eels were sampled in 1988, from seven sampling areas. Four areas were located in brackish water and the remaining three were located in freshwater reaches of the Tagus river basin. Eels were more abundant in the middle estuary and decreased both in the upstream and in the downstream directions, with a predominance of males in higher density areas. Smaller individuals preferred more peripheral areas, such as margins and upper reaches in the brackish water zone, and the tributaries of the freshwater habitats. It was assumed that this distribution pattern resulted from three main factors: (i) the dominance of larger specimens; (ii) the need to avoid predators and; (iii) the search for better trophic conditions. The condition of the individuals generally decreased toward the upper reaches, apparently due to a corresponding decrease in feeding intensity. The presence of the Belver dam in the main river, 158 km upstream from the sea, seemed to impose major alterations to the described patterns. The concentration of specimens below this impassable obstacle yielded a reduction in the proportion of females and a decrease in the condition and survival of the eels, contributing to a reduction in the spawning success of this population. Suggestions to diminish the effects of the dam, and to preserve the fishery are also presented.     

Using ecological theory to plan restorations of the endangered Beach jacquemontia (Convolvulaceae) in fragmented habitats

Population viability and metapopulation theory and models are heuristic tools that can be used to plan restorations and assess their success. Using examples from South Florida, USA, we review background information and ongoing reintroduction experiments with the federally endangered coastal perennial vine, beach jacquemontia, Jacquemontia reclinata (Convolvulaceae). All known wild populations are declining in isolated habitat fragments varying in size, occupied area, and degree of isolation. Eleven reintroduction sites ranging in size from 422 to 4800 m² within the extant species’ range have been identified that have characteristics suitable for J. reclinata introductions and have land managers amenable to restoration efforts. Previous RAPD analysis indicated that genetic diversity of natural populations was positively correlated with population size; the two largest populations had the highest genetic diversity and the smallest populations had relatively low genetic diversity. Despite habitat fragmentation and large distances between some populations, migration rates were very high among populations (m=4.05). Experimental crosses indicated the species has a mixed mating system. From 2001 to 2005, we have introduced 935 J. reclinata in seven experiments in five locations using plants propagated ex situ at Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden. Reintroductions have dramatically increased the number of plants in the wild by 72%. Survival from the time of transplant to 2005 ranged from 2% to 97%, was not significantly correlated with metapopulation parameters, such as, founding population size, patch size, or connectivity to extant populations. Reintroduced plants are contributing seed and pollen to the wild populations, but no recruited seedlings have yet been observed. Although it may take decades before we can consider the reintroduced populations to be self-sustainable, we argue that planning restorations for rare species based on predictions from ecological theory is advisable to allow a higher probability of success.     

The rate of multi-step evolution in Moran and Wright-Fisher populations

Several groups have recently modeled evolutionary transitions from an ancestral allele to a beneficial allele separated by one or more intervening mutants. The beneficial allele can become fixed if a succession of intermediate mutants are fixed or alternatively if successive mutants arise while the previous intermediate mutant is still segregating. This latter process has been termed stochastic tunneling. Previous work has focused on the Moran model of population genetics. I use elementary methods of analyzing stochastic processes to derive the probability of tunneling in the limit of large population size for both Moran and Wright-Fisher populations. I also show how to efficiently obtain numerical results for finite populations. These results show that the probability of stochastic tunneling is twice as large under the Wright-Fisher model as it is under the Moran model.     

Blowing-up of deterministic fixed points in stochastic population dynamics

We discuss the stochastic dynamics of biological (and other) populations presenting a limit behaviour for large environments (called deterministic limit) and its relation with the dynamics in the limit. The discussion is circumscribed to linearly stable fixed points of the deterministic dynamics, and it is shown that the cases of extinction and non-extinction equilibriums present different features. Mainly, non-extinction equilibria have associated a region of stochastic instability surrounded by a region of stochastic stability. The instability region does not exist in the case of extinction fixed points, and a linear Lyapunov function can be associated with them. Stochastically sustained oscillations of two subpopulations are also discussed in the case of complex eigenvalues of the stability matrix of the deterministic system.     

Species Survival in Fragmented Landscapes: Where are We Now?

We present a brief introduction to current attempts to understand and mitigate the effects of fragmentation on species survival. We provide a short overview of the contributions of empiricists, modellers, and practitioners in this issue of Biodiversity and Conservation, which were initiated during a workshop held in Australia in February 2002 on the topic ‘Species Survival in Fragmented Landscapes: Where are we now?’. These contributions address the themes ‘uncertainty in research and management’, ‘tools for quantifying risk and predicting species sensitivity to fragmentation’, and ‘tools for reassembling fragmented landscapes’. A final contribution provides a synthesis across the contributions and highlights the most important areas for future research on species survival in fragmented landscapes.     

Stationary gene frequency distribution in the environment fluctuating between two distinct states

Summary A general method is given to obtain a stationary distribution in a stochastic one-dimensional dynamical system in which an environmental parameter specifying the dynamical system is a stationary Markov process with only two states. By applying this method, the exact stationary gene frequency distribution is obtained for a genic selection model in the environment fluctuating between two distinct states. Several limiting stationary distributions are obtained therefrom, and one of them is shown to coincide with a stationary solution of the diffusion equation heuristically derived by us for more general cases. Discussion is given on the relationship between the diffusion equations obtained by various authors starting from discrete, non-overlapping generation models.     

Assessing re-introductions of the African Wild dog (Lycaon pictus) in the Limpopo Valley Conservancy, South Africa, using the stochastic simulation program VORTEX

The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) is one of Africa's most endangered species and therefore classified as endangered by IUCN. Earlier distributions included most of Africa but currently the African wild dog only has populations larger than 300 individuals in three countries (Botswana, Tanzania and South Africa). In 1998, a plan was launched in South Africa to manage sub-populations of the African wild dog in several small, geographically isolated, conservation areas. This management program involved the reintroduction of wild dogs into suitable conservation areas and periodic translocations among them. We used the stochastic population simulation model VORTEX to evaluate the Limpopo Valley Conservancy in the north of South Africa, as a possible reintroduction site for African wild dogs. The simulations showed that the size of the initial population released only had a small effect on the population dynamics. However, when individuals were supplemented and harvested over a longer period the probability of persistence increased. Number of females breeding, male mortality, and carrying capacity were key factors in the population dynamics, but according to VORTEX the severity of natural catastrophes had the greatest influence on the extinction risk and inbreeding. We suggest that the reintroduction program may be successful, if areas are properly secured, the dogs are held in a boma before release, wild animals or at least a mix of wild and captive animals are used for the release and the animals are vaccinated against rabies. It is, however, essential to continue monitoring followed by modelling efforts to re-evaluate the success of the reintroduction program.