Aggregated mental models predict observed outcomes following Eurasian Beaver (Castor fiber) reintroduction

Outcome prediction is important for conservation; however, analysis may be hampered by specialist resource deficiencies. Mental modelling techniques offer a potential solution, drawing on accessible sources of knowledge held informally by local stakeholders. Mental models show linked social and ecological variables from the perspectives of community members, whose insights may otherwise be neglected. Currently, an important weakness in conservation mental modelling is inadequate attention paid to real-time model predictive validity. To address this knowledge gap, baseline mental model predictions concerning Beaver (Castor fiber) reintroduction in Southwest England were followed up at three years. Participants were invited to submit outcome observations for concept variables identified in their original models, blind to inferences based on model dynamic analysis, so that the two sets of data could be compared. Individual concept values and models were found to show weak and highly inconsistent predictive validity, however, multi-stakeholder aggregated mental models showed consistently strong predictive performance. This finding was enhanced by setting tighter thresholds for inclusion of individual model items in aggregation procedures. Threshold effects can be interpreted as a reflection of greater agreement: tighter thresholds retain more highly shared model components. It is proposed that enhanced real-time predictive validity for aggregated models is explained by a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ statistical effect, analogous to well-recognised crowd judgement effects observed in relation to much simpler questions. The findings show the scope for stakeholder mental modelling methods as an investigative tool, to supplement more conventional ecosystem assessments in predicting data-poor conservation outcomes.     

Species distribution models as a tool to estimate reproductive parameters: a case study with a passerine bird species

1.?Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) assess relationships between species distribution data and environmental features, to evaluate the environmental suitability (ES) of a given area for a species, by providing a measure of the probability of presence. If the output of SDMs represents the relationships between habitat features and species performance well, SDM results can be related also to other key parameters of populations, including reproductive parameters. To test this hypothesis, we evaluated whether SDM results can be used as a proxy of reproductive parameters (breeding output, territory size) in red-backed shrikes (Lanius collurio). 2.?The distribution of 726 shrike territories in Northern Italy was obtained through multiple focused surveys; for a subset of pairs, we also measured territory area and number of fledged juveniles. We used Maximum Entropy modelling to build a SDM on the basis of territory distribution. We used generalized least squares and spatial generalized mixed models to relate territory size and number of fledged juveniles to SDM suitability, while controlling for spatial autocorrelation. 3.?Species distribution models predicted shrike distribution very well. Territory size was negatively related to suitability estimated through SDM, while the number of fledglings significantly increased with the suitability of the territory. This was true also when SDM was built using only spatially and temporally independent data. 4.?Results show a clear relationship between ES estimated through presence-only SDMs and two key parameters related to species' reproduction, suggesting that suitability estimated by SDM, and habitat quality determining reproduction parameters in our model system, are correlated. Our study shows the potential use of SDMs to infer important fitness parameters; this information can have great importance in management and conservation.     

Integrating GIS and expert judgment in a multi-criteria analysis to map and develop a habitat suitability index: A case study of large mammals on the Malayan Peninsula

Many habitat patches in tropical landscapes have become less suitable for wildlife due to an increase in anthropogenic disturbances. An index of habitat suitability based on the ecological factors that collectively determine the suitability of an organism's habitat is important for conservation planning. However, a widely accepted and comprehensive multi-criteria habitat suitability index for umbrella species is still lacking, particularly in areas where information related to the biology and ecology of the species of interest is not available. Therefore we develop preliminary habitat maps and measure the degree of habitat suitability for large mammals, focusing on four umbrella species in the State of Selangor, Peninsular Malaysia: Panthera tigris jacksoni (Malayan tiger), Tapirus indicus (Malayan tapir), Helarctos malayanus malayanus (Malayan sun bear), and Rusa unicolor cambojensis (sambar deer). The former two are endangered and the latter two are vulnerable according to the IUCN Red List. The suitability of habitat patches for each species was measured across the entire study area as well as in nine wildlife protected areas by integrating GIS data and expert opinion. Expert opinions were used as the source of information regarding the stresses faced by the species because there was insufficient information available from ground surveys.We developed an index and maps of habitat suitability for each species, which were then integrated to represent a combined index (ranging from 0 to 27) and spatially explicit maps of the area's habitat suitability for large mammals. The average large mammal habitat suitability index value of the State of Selangor (9) indicates that many habitat patches have become unsuitable for such species. Of the nine wildlife protected areas, Fraser's Hill (22), Sungai Dusun (22), and Bukit Kutu (21) are very suitable; Klang Gate (20) and Templers Park (17) are suitable; and the remaining four are unsuitable for large mammals. We assume that this preliminary habitat suitability index and mapping are useful for conservation planning of wildlife habitats at both landscape and regional scales, as well as providing an initial foundation for revision by future research with significant new information.     

DNA barcoding as an effective tool to complement wetland management: A case study of a protected area in Italy

In recent years, DNA barcoding has been suggested as a useful molecular technique to complement traditional taxonomic expertise for fast species identification and biodiversity inventories. In this study, in situ application of DNA barcodes was tested on the plant community of a wetland area in central Italy. Four cpDNA markers (trnH–psbA, rbcL, rpoC1, and matK) were tested on 40 plant species, 26 of which strictly connected to the aquatic habitat. Universality of the method, ease of data retrieval, and correct assignation of the genetic markers to each species were evaluated. The markers showed different prospects of reliable applicability. The obtained sequences were blasted against the NCBI database to verify the correct species identification. A score ranging between 32% and 67% was achieved. Overall, eight species remained unidentified with all the tested barcodes due to the absence of conspecific sequences in the available databases. This work demonstrates some limitations in the applicability of DNA barcoding to accomplish complete taxonomical surveys. Difficulties encountered in this study urge refinement of technical protocols and accessibility to wider databases. Future technological advances and larger sample sets will certainly reinforce DNA barcoding as a useful tool to address knowledge and conservation of wetlands.     

Microhabitat suitability as a tool to improve the success rate of a translocation or reintroduction,case‐study of the bullhead (Cottus perifretum) in Flanders,Belgium

Microhabitat suitability models are useful tools to enhance the reintroduction success of fish. Since 2008, a translocation and reintroduction program has been carried out in Flanders to prevent substantial loss of genetic variability in the Cottus perifretum (bullhead) population, and to meet the goals set by the Habitat Directive. To this end, habitat suitability of potential headstreams was assessed on a macrohabitat and microhabitat scale prior to the reintroduction. On a macrohabitat scale, water quality, habitat structure, food availability, and fish community were screened. Based on microhabitat models for bullhead in the summer period, microhabitat suitability was assessed in headstreams where macrohabitat characteristics showed a high potential for success. Both macro‐ and microhabitat assessment showed that reintroduction of bullheads in the Nellebeek, Bruelbeek, and Mollendaalbeek would most likely lead to self‐sustaining populations. For the Sint‐Annabeek, the microhabitat suitability model, considering depth and stream velocity, estimates that 7.5–9.5% of the headstream is suitable for bullhead. However, when substratum is taken into account, the microhabitat suitability index shows that only 4.3–5.8% of the brook is suitable. The current habitat quality and quantity in the Sint‐Annabeek is estimated to support a mean total population of 812 bullheads. However, the microhabitat suitability can be substantially improved by the artificial deposition of medium‐sized gravel (5–50 mm) and large gravel (50–100 mm). By doing so, the mean estimated population size could increase up to 1,330 individuals. Our results show that habitat improvement is necessary prior to the reintroduction of bullheads in the Sint‐Annabeek.     

AFLP markers as a tool to reconstruct complex relationships: A case study in Rosa (Rosaceae)

The genus Rosa has a complex evolutionary history caused by several factors, often in conjunction: extensive hybridization, recent radiation, incomplete lineage sorting, and multiple events of polyploidy. We examined the applicability of AFLP markers for reconstructing (species) relationships in Rosa, using UPGMA clustering, Wagner parsimony, and Bayesian inference. All trees were well resolved, but many of the deeper branches were weakly supported. The cluster analysis showed that the rose cultivars can be separated into a European and an Oriental cluster, each being related to different wild species. The phylogenetic analyses showed that (1) two of the four subgenera (Hulthemia and Platyrhodon) do not deserve subgeneric status; (2) section Carolinae should be merged with sect. Cinnamomeae; (3) subsection Rubigineae is a monophyletic group within sect. Caninae, making sect. Caninae paraphyletic; and (4) there is little support for the distinction of the five other subsections within sect. Caninae. Comparison of the trees with morphological classifications and with previous molecular studies showed that all methods yielded reliable trees. Bayesian inference proved to be a useful alternative to parsimony analysis of AFLP data. Because of their genome-wide sampling, AFLPs are the markers of choice to reconstruct (species) relationships in evolutionary complex groups.     

A rapid method for constructing precaution maps based on a simple virtual ecology model: a case study on the range expansion of the invasive aquatic species Limnoperna fortunei

Before invasion, or in its early stages, information on the invader in target areas is generally extremely limited. In such situations, managers must select focal areas in which to concentrate control and mitigation efforts. Here, we discuss a rapid method for selecting areas in which to control invasive aquatic species based on limited information. We used a simple cellular automata model that does not require species-specific information, but simulates the process of invasive species expansion and includes observed expansion progress to detect keystone areas. As a case study, we simulated the expansion of an invasive aquatic mussel, Limnoperna fortunei, in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, and detected the areas in which control efforts should be concentrated. To some extent, our model was able to predict the expansion of L. fortunei from the initial detected invasion to the current distribution. We predicted areas with a high potential of spreading and areas that would suffer from high propagule pressure. Results revealed a mismatch between areas with high spread potential and those with high propagule pressure. Managers should concentrate their invasion prevention efforts in the former because these are likely to have a greater long-term influence. Additionally, we predicted future expansion from the current distribution and showed that current scattered populations could merge naturally. Our approach is useful for establishing a management plan before or in the early stages of invasion.     

Satellite surface reflectance improves habitat distribution mapping: a case study on heath and shrub formations in the Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain)

Aim We aim to map the distribution of four heath and shrub formations constituting habitats of high conservation priority in Europe, whose occurrence is strongly dependent on human activities. Specifically, we assess whether the use of LANDSAT data in habitat distribution modelling may account for land use management, allowing accurate mapping of real distribution patterns. In particular, we explore whether reflectance values may be a better alternative to other remote sensing data traditionally used in modelling approaches (i.e. spectral vegetation indices and classified land cover maps). Finally, we test whether modelling performance is affected by the ecological traits of the dominant species of the target formations. Location Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain). Methods We generated maps for the four formations (two specialists vs. two generalists) using MaxEnt. First, we ran the models with environmental predictors only (topography, climate, lithology and human disturbances). Then, we compared the advantages of including, in turn, different data derived from LANDSAT imagery: reflectance values (corresponding to different wavelength channels of the multispectral image), a spectral index and a land cover map. We assessed changes in explanatory power and also in the formation’s predicted distribution patterns. Results Formations dominated by specialist species were accurately mapped on a base of environmental variables only, whereas those dominated by generalists were overpredicted. Average mean temperature, southness and distance to urban areas were the variables contributing most in predictions of environmental models. LANDSAT channels increased the accuracy of all models, but mainly those for formations dominated by generalist species. They showed advantages against other remote sensing data traditionally used in modelling approaches. Main conclusions Habitat distribution models allowed accurate mapping of heath and shrub formations. The use of reflectance values as predictors improved the accuracy of the models, particularly for formations dominated by generalist species, supplying environmental information that was otherwise unavailable.     

A critical assessment of two species distribution models: a case study of the vervet monkey (Cercopithecus aethiops)

Aim Species distribution models are invaluable tools in biogeographical, ecological and applied biological research, but specific concerns have been raised in relation to different modelling techniques in terms of their validity. Here we compare two fundamentally different approaches to species distribution modelling, one based on simple occurrence data where the lack of an ecological framework has been criticized, and the other firmly based in socio‐ecological theory but requiring highly detailed behavioural information that is often limited in availability. Location (Sub‐Saharan) Africa. Methods We used two distinct techniques to predict the realized distribution of a model species, the vervet monkey (Cercopithecus aethiops Linnaeus, 1758). A maximum entropy model was produced taking 13 environmental variables and presence‐only data from 174 sites throughout Africa as input, with an additional 58 sites retained to test the model. A time‐budget model considering the same environmental variables was constructed from detailed behavioural data on 20 groups representing 14 populations, with presence‐only data from the remaining 218 sites reserved to test model predictions on vervet monkey occurrence. Both models were further validated against a reference species distribution map as drawn up by the African Mammals Databank. Results Both models performed well, with the time budget and maximum entropy algorithms correctly predicting vervet monkey presence at 78.4% and 91.4% of their respective test sites. Similarly, the time‐budget model correctly predicted presence and absence at 87.4% of map pixels against the reference distribution map, and the maximum entropy model achieved a success rate of 81.8%. Finally, there was a high level of agreement (81.6%) between the presence–absence maps produced by the two models, and the environmental variables identified as most strongly driving vervet monkey distribution were the same in both models. Main conclusions The time‐budget and maximum entropy models produced accurate and remarkably similar species distribution maps, despite fundamental differences in their conceptual and methodological approaches. Such strong convergence not only provides support for the credibility of current results, but also relieves concerns about the validity of the two modelling approaches.     

Using species distribution models to locate animal aggregations: a case study with Hippodamia undecimnotata (Schneider) overwintering aggregation sites

1. The protection of animals' aggregation sites is increasingly seen as a key conservation strategy. However, to efficiently protect aggregation sites, they need to be accurately located. Species distribution models (SDMs) are an important tool in biological conservation to predict spatial distribution of species and they are used here to predict the distribution of the aggregation sites of a ladybird (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) species. 2. Hippodamia undecimnotata forms spectacular overwintering aggregations at the same locations every year across southern and eastern Europe. In this study, an SDM was developed and its performance tested for H. undecimnotata aggregations in southwest France. Moreover, the study looked at how environmental variables correlate with ladybirds' abundance in the aggregation sites. 3. The occurrence of aggregations was best described by one model including isolated prominent object, pesticide risk, altitude and vegetation coverage. Furthermore, ladybird abundance at the aggregation sites is positively correlated with altitude. The SDM occurrence model performance was found to be high (area under the curve = 0.92 and true skill statistic = 0.78). 4. It is suggested that H. undecimnotata may be an umbrella species, because some aggregation sites were also used by other ladybird species. Therefore, the protection of the aggregation sites of this species may benefit several other species. 5. This study provides nature conservation stakeholders with a tool to locate overwintering aggregations, a first step towards the protection of these sites.     

A geospatial approach to monitoring impervious surfaces in watersheds using Landsat data (the Mondego Basin,Portugal as a case study)

The urbanization of watersheds is a highly dynamic global phenomenon that must be monitored. With consequences for the environment, the population, and the economy, accurate products at adequate spatial and temporal resolutions are required and demanded by the science community and stakeholders alike. To address these needs, a new Impervious Surface Area (ISA) product was created for a Portuguese Watershed (Mondego river) from Landsat data (a combination of leaf-on multispectral bands, derived products, and NDVI time series), using Regression Tree Models (RTM). The product provides 30-m spatial resolution ISA estimates (0–100%) with a Mean Average Error (MAE) of 1.6% and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.5%.A strategy to update the baseline product was tested in earlier imagery (2001 and 2007) for a subset of the watershed. Instead of updating the baseline product, the strategy seeks to identify stable training samples and remove those where change was detected in a time series of Change Vector Analysis (CVA). The stable samples were then used to create new ISA models using RTM. The updated maps were similar to the original product in terms of accuracy metrics (MAE: 2001: 2.6%; 2007:3.6%).The products and methodology offer a new perspective on the urban development of the watershed, at a scale previously unavailable. It can also be replicated elsewhere at a low cost, leveraging the growing Landsat data archive, and provide timely information on relevant land cover metrics to the scientific community and stakeholders.     

A strategy to develop molecular markers applicable to a wide range of crosses for marker assisted selection in plant breeding: a case study on anthracnose disease resistance in lupin (Lupinus angustifolius L.)

A key challenge in marker-assisted selection (MAS) for molecular plant breeding is to develop markers linked to genes of interest which are applicable to multiple breeding populations. In this study representative F₂ plants from a cross Mandalup (resistant to anthracnose disease) × Quilinock (susceptible) of Lupinus angustifolius were used in DNA fingerprinting by Microsatellite-anchored Fragment Length Polymorphism (MFLP). Nine candidate MFLP markers linked to anthracnose resistance were identified, then ‘validated’ on 17 commercial cultivars. The number of “false positives” (showing resistant-allele band but lack of the R gene) for each of the nine candidate MFLP markers on the 17 cultivars ranged from 1 to 9. The candidate marker with least number of false positive was selected, sequenced, and was converted into a co-dominant, sequence-specific, simple PCR based marker suitable for routine implementation. Testing on 180 F₂ plants confirmed that the converted marker was linked to the R gene at 5.1 centiMorgan. The banding pattern of the converted marker was consistent with the disease phenotype on 23 out of the 24 cultivars. This marker, designated “AnManM1”, is now being used for MAS in the Australian lupin breeding program. We conclude that generation of multiple candidate markers, followed by a validation step to select the best marker before conversion to an implementable form is an efficient strategy to ensure wide applicability for MAS.     

On the reliability of a simple method for scoring phenotypes to estimate heritability: A case study with pupal color in Heliconius erato phyllis, Fabricius 1775 (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae)

In this paper, two methods for assessing the degree of melanization of pupal exuviae from the butterfly Heliconius erato phyllis, Fabricius 1775 (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Heliconiini) are compared. In the first method, which was qualitative, the exuviae were classified by scoring the degree of melanization, whereas in the second method, which was quantitative, the exuviae were classified by optical density followed by analysis with appropriate software. The heritability (h(2)) of the degree of melanization was estimated by regression and analysis of variance. The estimates of h (2) were similar with both methods, indicating that the qualitative method could be particularly suitable for field work. The low estimates obtained for heritability may have resulted from the small sample size (n = 7-18 broods, including the parents) or from the allocation-priority hypothesis in which pupal color would be a lower priority trait compared to morphological traits and adequate larval development.