黄河流域旱塬区农户生计脆弱性及影响因素

黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展成为事关中华民族伟大复兴的千秋大计。人地系统协调与农业农村高质量发展是黄河流域高质量发展的重要内容,也是实施城乡融合与乡村振兴战略的内涵所在。而在气候多变、水旱灾害异常的背景下,依赖农业为生的黄河流域旱塬区农户生计面临着不可持续的威胁。当前亟需评估基于等级差异的农户生计脆弱性影响因素,建立农户的可持续生计,为巩固脱贫攻坚成果、解决相对贫困提供借鉴。以黄河流域旱塬区的渭北旱塬为例,在综合评价农户生计脆弱性指数的基础上对农户的生计脆弱性等级进行排序,使用有序logistic回归分析了影响农户生计脆弱性的关键因素,并进一步使用夏普利值进行分解。结果发现：(1)非农户和一兼户占了研究样本的大多数,从脆弱性的三个维度来看,纯农户的暴露水平最高,敏感性最低,非农户的适应能力最高;(2)回归结果表明,耕地数量、耕地质量、房屋结构、家庭固定资产数量、村民信任、整体健康状况影响显著;(3)夏普利值分解发现,生计资本的排序为：物质资本>人力资本>社会资本>自然资本,各类资本的组成成分中,家庭固定资产数量的贡献度最高,整体健康状况次之,村民信任、耕地质量、房屋结...     

A Temporal Dimension of Household Vulnerability in Three Rural Communities in Lijiang,China

We examine the dynamics of household vulnerability during the past 30 years within three different social-ecological upland systems in Lijiang, Yunnan. Interviews were conducted to construct coupled human-environmental timelines to facilitate the understanding of livelihood dynamics in the context of more general changes that constitute both constraints and opportunities. The results indicate that significant livelihood changes including specialization, diversification and migration have been primarily driven by socio-political influences. Overall vulnerability of households has decreased differently across villages. Nevertheless, climate change is a concern as households perceive increasing temperature, declining precipitation and unpredictable extreme events. In the future, households’ vulnerability might increase since important components of current livelihoods remain climate sensitive. Moreover, environmentally destructive practices such as illegal logging might reinforce the negative impacts of climate change and thus undermine sustainable adaptation.     

长江流域生态退捕渔民生计脆弱性评价及生计风险预测

渔民作为长江十年禁渔的参与主体,其后续生计发展将直接决定此生态保护政策的实施成效。在重构非自愿生态移民生计脆弱性评价体系的基础上,结合长江流域重点禁渔水域典型退捕渔民的抽样数据,测度渔民生计脆弱性指数(LVI)并找出影响后续生计恢复的主要障碍因子,最后跨领域的引入支持向量回归(SVR)预测模型动态分析了不同区域渔户生计脆弱性的演变趋势。结果表明:(1)渔民弃船上岸后呈现出生计脆弱性的比例较高,但不同类型区域间存在明显差异,其中内湖保护区最高,干流非保护区次之而干流保护区最低;(2)敏感性维度在诱发渔民生计脆弱性上起着主导作用,即个体禀赋比安置区条件更为重要,特别是成员年龄大但无基本社保兜底,受教育程度低且"双转"难的渔民家庭更易陷入生计困境;(3)自然和金融资本是推动渔民生计恢复的主要生计资本,而阻碍渔民生计脆弱性降低的共性因子主要有上岸后的收支失衡,社会支持不足及过分依赖原有生计方式等,同时各区域在脆弱性各维度上还有特殊的障碍因子;(4)推动安置区经济社会发展和家庭转产增收后,并不一定能确保缓解未来五年中的渔户生计脆弱性程度,上岸后完成社会融入并有效降低生产生活成本也至关重要,而干流保护区则还需加强人力资本建设,否则后续将面临极高的返贫风险;(5)长江临近区域的同类渔民生计脆弱性现状、面临的生计风险、后续生计恢复的进程具有一定的相似性和规律性,生计监测和帮扶政策可进行协同统筹。     

A Vulnerability Assessment of 300 Species in Florida: Threats from Sea Level Rise,Land Use,and Climate Change

Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida’s biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.     

An assessment of social vulnerability to climate change among the districts of Arunachal Pradesh,India

The present study highlighted the state of climate change induced social vulnerability of the districts of Arunachal Pradesh. For the purpose of assessment of one of the most fragile ecosystems of the eastern Himalaya, the ‘Integrated Vulnerability Assessment Approach’ and IPCC’s definition of vulnerability were utilized. The assessment was based on various secondary data, like socio-economic and biophysical indicators, collected from several authenticated sources; and the respective weightage of these indicators was assigned by using ‘Principal Component Analysis’. Vulnerability was calculated as the net effect of exposure and sensitivity on the adaptive capacity. Anjaw district of eastern Arunachal Pradesh was found to be the most vulnerable district, while Tawang district of western Arunachal Pradesh happened to be the least vulnerable. This net effect was found negative in 7 out of 12 districts viz. Anjaw, Upper Siang, West Siang, Lower Dibang Valley, East Siang, East Kameng and Kurung Kurmey. This net negative effect could be construed as an alarming situation.     

可持续生计框架下连片特困区发展机理——以宁夏限制开发生态区为例

生计资本与农户收支有着密切关系,决定农户的生计策略,影响区域的发展机理与发展模式.基于参与式农村评估和数理统计方法,分民族、地形、农户类型对宁夏限制开发生态区农户生计资本与农户收支状况进行定量评估,创建农户非农性指数,揭示生计资本与农户收支和非农性指数的关系,结合研究区实际对农户可持续生计进行研究,探讨区域发展机理.结果表明: 研究区农户生计资本量整体偏低,其中,回族略高于汉族、川道农户高于山地农户、兼业户和非农业户显著高于农业户;区域发展与非农性指数和人力、物质等资本显著正相关,与自然资本显著负相关,需着力提升农户的非农性指数和人力、物质等资本量,同时引导农户对农业生产资料进行流转,促进自然资本两极分化.     

Assessing household livelihood vulnerability to climate change: The case of Northwest Vietnam

This study applied livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and livelihood effect index (LEI) to assess vulnerability from climate variability and change of three agricultural and natural resources dependent commune in northwest Vietnam, a country that is expected to bear some of the most severe impacts of climate change. Based on a survey of 335 farm household data, complemented with secondary data on climate factors, a composite index was calculated and differential vulnerabilities were compared. The results of the analysis suggest that one of the communities, “Pa Vay Su,” was more vulnerable than the others, particularly in relation to housing, knowledge and skills, socio-demographics, health and water security, social networks, and livelihood strategy. “Hien Luong” commune, on the other hand, was more vulnerable in relation to other LVI indicators with the exception of food security, climate variability, and natural disasters. “Moc Chau” community was more vulnerable in relation to water security, social demographic than Hien Luong commune. Overall, the article shows that three different vulnerability assessment indices can be broadly applied in comparable setting in other areas of country and they could usefully establish the basis for a nationally applicable index to identify and prioritize adaptation and mitigation needs.     

多重压力下重点生态功能区农户生计脆弱性——以甘南黄河水源补给区为例

农户作为农村社会中最小的生计单元,面临着多重压力的冲击,这些压力不仅加剧了重点生态功能区农户的生计脆弱性,更威胁到该区生态服务功能的提升,当前亟需准确评估多重压力下农户的生计脆弱性,为制定可持续的生计政策提供借鉴。以甘南黄河水源补给区为例,利用入户调查数据,评估了多重压力下农户的生计脆弱性,分析了多重压力下农户生计脆弱性的形成过程。结果发现：（1）家人患病、子女学费开支高和自然灾害三种生计压力对甘南黄河水源补给区农户生计的影响最为剧烈,经济压力是该区农户面临最频繁的压力类型,但自然压力对该区农户的生计脆弱性影响最大;（2）经济示范区农户的生计敏感性最高,重点保护区农户的适应能力最低;（3）重点保护区农户的生计脆弱性最高,经济示范区次之,恢复治理区最低,自然压力冲击下农户的生计脆弱性最高;（4）不同类型的生计压力影响农户生计脆弱性的路径不同,自然压力通过影响自然资源依赖度与自然资本、社会压力通过影响饮水条件与社会资本、经济压力通过影响家庭抚养比与金融资本来影响生计脆弱性,生计压力之间的交互作用会增强农户的生计脆弱性。     

Mapping and analysis of the physical vulnerability of coastal Tamil Nadu

Abstract

This is an integrated study to classify Tamil Nadu Coast in terms of its vulnerability to coastal processes. It is accomplished through estimating Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the entire stretch of the said coast using weighted averages of six parameters, viz., geomorphology, shoreline changes, coastal slope, and relative sea level rise, mean significant wave height and mean tidal range. Thus, CVI evaluates the state of the coast in terms of level of risk hovering on it as and when it is affected by oceanic hazards. The target of this study is to evaluate the vulnerability status of coastal stretches of 35 taluks of Tamil Nadu. Twenty one percent of the coastal stretch is under very high vulnerability level. Following this is 36% stretch under high vulnerability state. Another 34% coastal stretch is in moderate setting. Low vulnerability state prevails about 6%. Further, it is learnt that there are only 2% of Tamil Nadu coastal region coming under the least vulnerable category. The study revealed the very high vulnerability of Nagapattinam coastal region. The present study may also help create awareness among people about marine natural hazards such as coastal erosion, inundation, loss of life and their properties.     

干旱区内陆河流域农户生计对生态退化的脆弱性评价——以石羊河中下游为例

生态退化对干旱区内陆河流域农业人口的负面影响非常显著,当前急需评估农户生计对生态退化的脆弱性,识别脆弱群体及脆弱性成因,并依此寻求降低生计脆弱性的对策措施。以石羊河中下游为研究区,基于366户农户调查数据,分析了不同类型农户对生态退化的暴露度、敏感性及适应能力,评估了农户生计对生态退化的脆弱性,探明了影响农户生计对生态退化脆弱性的关键因素。结果表明:(1)高收入及高文化程度农户的适应能力强,暴露度与敏感性高,生计脆弱性较低;(2)从纯农户到非农户、从单一生计农户到多种生计农户,适应能力依次增强,暴露度与敏感性递减,生计脆弱性降低;(3)改善生态环境质量,提高农户的富裕水平、受教育程度及社会资本,促进生计转型能够显著降低农户生计对生态退化的脆弱性。最后,提出了减轻农户生计脆弱性的对策建议及未来需进一步关注的问题。     

Assessment of sustainable livelihoods of different farmers in hilly red soil erosion areas of southern China

Livelihood vulnerability in environmentally fragile areas is emerging as a key issue due to its positive feedback to environmental degradation. Assessment of sustainable livelihoods is a crucial prerequisite for targeting interventions. However, aggregated analysis usually obtained ambiguous conclusions because they ignored the heterogeneity of rural households. Here, we evaluated the livelihood sustainability of different rural households by constructing an improved Livelihood Sustainability Index (LSI) in hilly red soil erosion areas of southern China. Changting County was selected as the study case by virtue of its unique representativeness in soil erosion and poverty. The results showed that livelihood sustainability among rural households was far from equivalent. Different from previous studies, higher nonfarm income share was not always consistent with higher extent of livelihood sustainability. Besides nonfarm employment, agricultural specialization could be another viable pathway to attain sustainable livelihoods. We also found that intergenerational sustainability was one primary cause for long-term livelihood differentiation of rural households. The poor education in rural areas would aggravate livelihood vulnerability of the poor and threaten the sustainable livelihoods of specialized agricultural households. Policy implications include further investment in rural infrastructure, irrigation and drainage, and stimulus for land transfer and concentration to facilitate agrarian specialization; enhancing investment in rural education to improve intergenerational sustainability; as well as targeting of the most vulnerable households, for example, promoting development of social insurance, social relief, and medical services for orphans and widows.     

Climate Change and Structural Vulnerability of a Metropolitan Energy System

In this article, we present methodology and results of a vulnerability assessment of the energy system of the metropolitan region Bremen‐Oldenburg in Northwest Germany. This work is part of the regional climate adaptation project “nordwest2050” aiming at innovative solutions toward a climate‐proof and resilient region. Methodologically, we extended the established vulnerability assessment based on climate change impacts by a structural analysis, highlighting general weaknesses of the metropolitan energy system. Our findings indicate that the structural vulnerabilities of the energy system around Bremen‐Oldenburg pose a greater threat to maintaining the system's services than climate change itself. Climate‐change–based vulnerabilities, however, aggravate many of the structural vulnerabilities and therefore demand attention in their own right. The structural vulnerabilities mainly originate from political and regulatory uncertainties, turbulent market conditions, conflicts along the supply chains, and the current dynamics in the energy sector induced by increased climate mitigation efforts. One of our main conclusions is thus that the metropolitan energy system's capabilities to handle turbulence, perturbations, and surprises must be improved. This will also help in reducing the climate‐change vulnerabilities, because such a system is better equipped when facing currently hard‐to‐predict changes in climate parameters. The results of the assessment described here will be used as the starting point to find options for innovations toward a climate‐proof and resilient energy system for the region in the course of the remaining project.     

Profiling urban vulnerabilities to climate change: An indicator-based vulnerability assessment for European cities

Governing climate change in cities entails a good understanding of urban vulnerabilities. This research presents an Indicator-based Vulnerability Assessment for 571 European cities. Basing on panel data from Urban Audit database and a set of newly developed indicators, we assessed urban vulnerabilities for the following impact chains: (i) heatwaves on human health; (ii) drought on water planning, and; (iii) flooding (sub-divided into pluvial, fluvial and coastal) on the socio-economic tissue and the urban fabric. Results shed light on the key challenges that specific groups of European cities face in order to better deal with the expected impacts of climate change. This knowledge is a necessary step to advance in the understanding of urban risks to climate change and the development of effective EU policies for urban adaptation.     

禁牧政策下宁夏盐池县农户适应策略及其影响因素

禁牧政策下农户的适应策略是农户为了应对外界干预而做出的各种适应性改变,生计变化是其中最重要的部分。通过实地调查获得研究数据,对比分析禁牧初期和禁牧10a农户生计模式、养殖及种植方面的变化,并以农户的生计资本作为自变量,运用有序多分类和二项的Logistic回归模型分析农户适应策略(农户生计多样性、养殖规模及养殖方式)变化的影响因素。研究得出:1与禁牧初期相比,当前农户的适应策略主要表现为农户生计模式具有初步非农化倾向,生计多样性增加,大部分农户养殖规模减小或不变,农户生产结构有所调整,粮食作物种植面积增加,而经济作物种植面积减小,单只羊的养殖成本增加。2农户生计资本水平对其适应策略具有重要影响,农户生计多样性变化的主要影响因素有人力资本、金融资本和社会资本;影响农户养殖规模变化的主要有自然资本、物质资本、金融资本和社会资本,而影响农户养殖模式选择的主要是物质资本和金融资本因素。     

不同地貌背景下民族村农户生计脆弱性及其影响因子

基于2014年贫困户实地调查数据,运用集对分析和障碍度模型对宁夏海原县农户生计脆弱性及其胁迫因子进行实证分析.结果表明: 海原县农户生计脆弱性总体较高且呈现地貌和民族差异化,平原区、河谷川地山间洼地农户生计脆弱性低于土石山区、黄土梁区和中山地貌区;回汉混居村农户生计脆弱性高于纯回族与纯汉族村.农户自身必要资产的缺乏和外部地理环境敏感性的胁迫是海原县农户生计脆弱的深层原因.生计结构不合理与生计方式单一导致生计脆弱性长期积累;地理环境的不易改变使扶贫资源的地区可进入性降低.农户生计应对能力的提高需建立明确的村级水权分配制度,实施教育贫困户对口帮扶,加大生计方式多元化转型的成本投入,开发村域连锁综合商品市场.农户生计脆弱性的治理应把“公路村村通”建设放在“村村通工程”更突出的位置,坚持气象防灾和保险企业减灾相结合,开发农业生产保险系统.     

自然生态系统响应气候变化的脆弱性评价研究进展

以气候变暖为标志的全球气候变化已引起各国政府、国际组织和科学工作者的高度重视.气候变化给人类及自然生态系统带来的风险和危害日趋增大.生态系统脆弱性分析和评价是适应和减缓气候变化的关键和基础,已成为近年来气候变化领域和生态学领域的研究热点.目前国内外学者正在不同领域、不同空间尺度上开展响应气候变化的脆弱性评价,其中以自然生态系统为评价对象的脆弱性研究也有了长足的发展.本文通过对脆弱性的概念、气候变化脆弱性评价研究现状、自然生态系统响应气候变化的脆弱性定量评价方法的综述,探讨了该研究领域存在的问题和未来的发展前景.     

Vulnerability of wheat farmers: Toward a conceptual framework

Vulnerability is expected to differ based on climatic conditions as well as socio-economic attributes of farming households. In this regard, attention toward vulnerability assessments is increasing within policy-making processes, to assist in selecting suitable coping strategies and policies to reduce farmers’ vulnerability. Through identifying the main vulnerability indicators from a sustainability perspective (including social, economic, and environmental dimensions) among wheat farmers, this study is seeking an inclusive conceptual framework to assess their vulnerability to both socio-economic and environmental changes. Taking the main elements (i.e., sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity) of vulnerability into account, this paper tried to develop an inclusive systemic framework to understand the most important indicators of vulnerability for wheat farmers at various spatial and temporal scales. It is supposed that the framework is a useful guide for policymakers in identifying the vulnerable groups of wheat farmers and zones so that they can decide about proper coping strategies to effectively deal with adverse effects of climate and undesired socioeconomic changes in the wheat farming system.     

What Actually Confers Adaptive Capacity? Insights from Agro-Climatic Vulnerability of Australian Wheat

Vulnerability assessments have often invoked sustainable livelihoods theory to support the quantification of adaptive capacity based on the availability of capital—social, human, physical, natural, and financial. However, the assumption that increased availability of these capitals confers greater adaptive capacity remains largely untested. We quantified the relationship between commonly used capital indicators and an empirical index of adaptive capacity (ACI) in the context of vulnerability of Australian wheat production to climate variability and change. We calculated ACI by comparing actual yields from farm survey data to climate-driven expected yields estimated by a crop model for 12 regions in Australia’s wheat-sheep zone from 1991–2010. We then compiled data for 24 typical indicators used in vulnerability analyses, spanning the five capitals. We analyzed the ACI and used regression techniques to identify related capital indicators. Between regions, mean ACI was not significantly different but variance over time was. ACI was higher in dry years and lower in wet years suggesting that farm adaptive strategies are geared towards mitigating losses rather than capitalizing on opportunity. Only six of the 24 capital indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity in a way predicted by theory. Another four indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity but of the opposite sign, countering our theory-driven expectation. We conclude that the deductive, theory-based use of capitals to define adaptive capacity and vulnerability should be more circumspect. Assessments need to be more evidence-based, first testing the relevance and influence of capital metrics on adaptive capacity for the specific system of interest. This will more effectively direct policy and targeting of investment to mitigate agro-climatic vulnerability.     

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.     

气候变化对渔区感知指数、生计策略和生态效应的影响

气候变化已对全球海洋生态环境产生了直接影响,并对渔业资源、渔业生产与渔户生计造成巨大的负面影响,而渔户也通过生计适应影响海洋生态环境。迄今为止,关于渔户对气候变化的感知、生计适应及其生态效应的研究成果较少,基于家庭调查的实证研究更鲜见于报道。选取中国东南沿海的一个典型渔区——福建省霞浦县牙城镇,采用参与式农村评估法(Participatory Rural Appraisal,PRA),基于158份渔户家庭的有效数据,构建气候变化影响感知指数,揭示气候变化影响感知指数与生计资本的内在关联,并进一步探究渔户的生计适应策略及其产生的生态效应。结果表明:(1)渔户对气候变化及其影响的感知较为强烈;(2)渔户的气候变化影响感知指数与生计资本呈现一定的相关性;(3)渔户主要调整了生计生产方式和多样化收入经营两方面策略;(4)渔户生计适应策略的调整会对海洋生态环境产生正面和负面的影响。在此基础上,提出保护渔户生计安全、防范气候变化风险、保护海洋生态环境的政策建议,为当地及其他典型渔区更好地应对气候变化提供有益参考。