Influenza emergence in the face of evolutionary constraints

Different influenza subtypes can evolve at very different rates, but the causes are not well understood. In this paper, we explore whether differences in transmissibility between subtypes can play a role if there are fitness constraints on antigenic evolution. We investigate the problem using a mathematical model that separates the interaction of strains through cross-immunity from the process of emergence for new antigenic variants. Evolutionary constraints are also included with antigenic mutation incurring a fitness cost. We show that the transmissibility of a strain can become disproportionately important in dictating the rate of antigenic drift: strains that spread only slightly more easily can have a much higher rate of emergence. Further, we see that the effect continues when vaccination is considered; a small increase in the rate of transmission can make it much harder to control the frequency at which new strains emerge. Our results not only highlight the importance of considering both transmission and fitness constraints when modelling influenza evolution, but may also help in understanding the differences between the emergence of H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes.     

Exhaled aerosol transmission of pandemic and seasonal H1N1 influenza viruses in the ferret

Person-to-person transmission of influenza viruses occurs by contact (direct and fomites) and non-contact (droplet and small particle aerosol) routes, but the quantitative dynamics and relative contributions of these routes are incompletely understood. The transmissibility of influenza strains estimated from secondary attack rates in closed human populations is confounded by large variations in population susceptibilities. An experimental method to phenotype strains for transmissibility in an animal model could provide relative efficiencies of transmission. We developed an experimental method to detect exhaled viral aerosol transmission between unanesthetized infected and susceptible ferrets, measured aerosol particle size and number, and quantified the viral genomic RNA in the exhaled aerosol. During brief 3-hour exposures to exhaled viral aerosols in airflow-controlled chambers, three strains of pandemic 2009 H1N1 strains were frequently transmitted to susceptible ferrets. In contrast one seasonal H1N1 strain was not transmitted in spite of higher levels of viral RNA in the exhaled aerosol. Among three pandemic strains, the two strains causing weight loss and illness in the intranasally infected 'donor' ferrets were transmitted less efficiently from the donor than the strain causing no detectable illness, suggesting that the mucosal inflammatory response may attenuate viable exhaled virus. Although exhaled viral RNA remained constant, transmission efficiency diminished from day 1 to day 5 after donor infection. Thus, aerosol transmission between ferrets may be dependent on at least four characteristics of virus-host relationships including the level of exhaled virus, infectious particle size, mucosal inflammation, and viral replication efficiency in susceptible mucosa.     

Assessing the Viral Fitness of Oseltamivir-Resistant Influenza Viruses in Ferrets,Using a Competitive-Mixtures Model

To determine the relative fitness of oseltamivir-resistant strains compared to susceptible wild-type viruses, we combined mathematical modeling and statistical techniques with a novel in vivo “competitive-mixtures” experimental model. Ferrets were coinfected with either pure populations (100% susceptible wild-type or 100% oseltamivir-resistant mutant virus) or mixed populations of wild-type and oseltamivir-resistant influenza viruses (80%:20%, 50%:50%, and 20%:80%) at equivalent infectivity titers, and the changes in the relative proportions of those two viruses were monitored over the course of the infection during within-host and over host-to-host transmission events in a ferret contact model. Coinfection of ferrets with mixtures of an oseltamivir-resistant R292K mutant A(H3N2) virus and a R292 oseltamivir-susceptible wild-type virus demonstrated that the R292K mutant virus was rapidly outgrown by the R292 wild-type virus in artificially infected donor ferrets and did not transmit to any of the recipient ferrets. The competitive-mixtures model was also used to investigate the fitness of the seasonal A(H1N1) oseltamivir-resistant H274Y mutant and showed that within infected ferrets the H274Y mutant virus was marginally outgrown by the wild-type strain but demonstrated equivalent transmissibility between ferrets. This novel in vivo experimental method and accompanying mathematical analysis provide greater insight into the relative fitness, both within the host and between hosts, of two different influenza virus strains compared to more traditional methods that infect ferrets with only pure populations of viruses. Our statistical inferences are essential for the development of the next generation of mathematical models of the emergence and spread of oseltamivir-resistant influenza in human populations.The neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors are a class of influenza antiviral drugs that are specifically designed to inhibit the enzymatic function of the NA, thereby preventing normal viral replication. Since 1999, two NA inhibitors (NAIs), oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza), have been shown to be effective for the treatment and prophylaxis of patients infected with not only seasonal influenza, but also highly pathogenic A(H5N1) and the newly emerged A(H1N1) pandemic virus. Prior to 2007, resistance to this class of drugs was considered relatively uncommon, particularly in comparison with the other class of influenza antivirals, the adamantanes, which readily select for viral resistance in treated patients. During early clinical trials, oseltamivir resistance was detected in only 1 to 2% of adults (14) and 5 to 6% of children (33) under treatment, although later studies detected resistance in up to 18% of oseltamivir-treated children (16). In contrast, resistance following zanamivir treatment is rare, with only one reported case observed in an immunocompromised patient (6). Influenza viruses that develop resistance to these drugs typically contain mutations in the NA which, either directly or indirectly, alter the shape of the NA enzymatic site, thereby reducing the ability of the drugs to bind to this specific pocket. One of the most commonly observed mutations in oseltamivir-resistant A(H3N2) viruses is an arginine-to-lysine mutation at residue 292 (R292K) of the NA, while the predominant NA mutation in oseltamivir-resistant A(H1N1) viruses is a histidine-to-tyrosine mutation at residue 274 (H274Y) (N2 NA amino acid numbering, equivalent to residue 275 based on N1 numbering). Both of these mutations have an indirect impact on drug binding, as they affect the ability of the glutamic acid residue at position 276 to reorientate, as required for slow binding by oseltamivir (3). Many mutations that cause NAI resistance also cause reduced NA enzyme activity and, consequently, can compromise viral fitness.Previous studies have demonstrated that viruses with an R292K NA mutation demonstrated compromised growth in vitro (36) and in ferrets were significantly less infectious and did not transmit (9). The replication and transmission fitness of the H274Y mutation has also been studied previously. An H274Y mutant A(H1N1) strain isolated from a patient under oseltamivir treatment demonstrated compromised growth in cell culture compared to a wild-type (WT) virus (13), although a strain carrying the same mutation selected in vitro was found to replicate as well as the wild type (32). The infectivity and transmissibility of an H274Y mutant were found to be restricted in ferrets (13), although a second study demonstrated that transmission of the mutant virus between ferrets was possible, but required a greater viral dose of the mutant compared to the wild type (10). These results suggest that resistant virus variants with the same NA mutation may differ in replication or transmission fitness depending on other viral components. Nevertheless, based on these data and the viral fitness of other resistant mutants, it was believed that NAI-resistant viruses were unlikely to spread throughout the community due to their compromised viral fitness in the absence of drug selective pressure. This was proven incorrect during the Northern Hemisphere 2007-2008 influenza season, when large numbers of oseltamivir-resistant seasonal A(H1N1) viruses with an H274Y mutation were detected in patients who had not been treated with oseltamivir (4, 24). The mutant strain continued to spread to the Southern Hemisphere, such that by late 2008 virtually all circulating seasonal A(H1N1) viruses were oseltamivir resistant (11). The rapid global spread of this strain clearly suggested that the oseltamivir-resistant seasonal A(H1N1) virus had fitness equivalent to or greater than that of the previous oseltamivir-sensitive A(H1N1) strain. The reasons for enhanced viral fitness in this strain, when previous studies demonstrated that the acquisition of an H274Y mutation led to reduced viral fitness, remain unclear but probably involve compensatory mutations or reassortment events which may have improved the hemagglutinin (HA)/NA balance, allowing efficient transmission (5, 26).Experimental methods have been developed to assess the relative fitness of NAI-resistant strains compared with respective wild-type viruses, both in vitro and in vivo. Ferrets have been considered the most appropriate model animal for influenza research, and fitness studies have assessed variables such as minimum dose required to achieve infection, duration of viral shedding, and levels of viral load to allow comparisons between viruses. The guinea pig model has also been previously used to assess the viral fitness of influenza viruses, particularly in comparing the transmissibility of strains via either the contact or aerosol route (2). As an alternative to these traditional approaches, we have investigated a methodology that involves coinfection of ferrets with a mixture of two influenza viruses. Daily monitoring of changes in the relative proportion of those viruses over the course of the infection allows determination of the relative replication fitness of the viruses. Monitoring of recipient ferrets exposed to the infected ferrets enables the relative transmissibility of the viruses (henceforth, the relative transmission fitness) to be determined. In this study, the “competitive-mixtures” methodology was used to assess the relative replication and transmission fitness of an oseltamivir-resistant R292K mutant A(H3N2) virus compared with an oseltamivir-sensitive A(H3N2) wild-type strain and also to asses the relative replication and transmission fitness of an oseltamivir-resistant H274Y seasonal A(H1N1) mutant compared with an oseltamivir-sensitive A(H1N1) wild-type strain. Quantitative estimates for the replication fitness of mutant viruses were determined using a simple mathematical model of within-host viral replication and mixed-effects statistical tests. Transmission fitness was evaluated by application of a graphical technique that demonstrated the relationship between the proportion of mutant virus in the infectee ferrets as a function of the proportion of mutant virus in the infector ferrets.Inferences drawn from the statistical analyses presented here are essential for the refinement of existing mathematical models that simulate the spread of influenza in the human population and model the deployment of antiviral agents. These models are designed to assess the likely impact of different antiviral agent deployment strategies to control pandemic influenza (18, 21, 35). At present, data on the probability of emergence of NAI-resistant strains, the relative transmission fitness of these strains, and the probability of an individual''s infection reverting to an NAI-sensitive strain in the absence of ongoing selective pressure are severely limited. In consequence, human population-level models of influenza spread must make gross assumptions on the likely characteristics of NAI-resistant strains. Data such as those presented here will be used to inform new models of drug deployment and result in improved pandemic policy advice (20, 23).     

Characterizing the Transmission Potential of Zoonotic Infections from Minor Outbreaks

The transmission potential of a novel infection depends on both the inherent transmissibility of a pathogen, and the level of susceptibility in the host population. However, distinguishing between these pathogen- and population-specific properties typically requires detailed serological studies, which are rarely available in the early stages of an outbreak. Using a simple transmission model that incorporates age-stratified social mixing patterns, we present a novel method for characterizing the transmission potential of subcritical infections, which have effective reproduction number R<1, from readily available data on the size of outbreaks. We show that the model can identify the extent to which outbreaks are driven by inherent pathogen transmissibility and pre-existing population immunity, and can generate unbiased estimates of the effective reproduction number. Applying the method to real-life infections, we obtained accurate estimates for the degree of age-specific immunity against monkeypox, influenza A(H5N1) and A(H7N9), and refined existing estimates of the reproduction number. Our results also suggest minimal pre-existing immunity to MERS-CoV in humans. The approach we describe can therefore provide crucial information about novel infections before serological surveys and other detailed analyses are available. The methods would also be applicable to data stratified by factors such as profession or location, which would make it possible to measure the transmission potential of emerging infections in a wide range of settings.     

Bayesian Estimation of Mixture Models with Prespecified Elements to Compare Drug Resistance in Treatment-Na?ve and Experienced Tuberculosis Cases

We propose a Bayesian approach for estimating branching tree mixture models to compare drug-resistance pathways (i.e. patterns of sequential acquisition of resistance to individual antibiotics) that are observed among Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates collected from treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients. Resistant pathogens collected from treatment-naïve patients are strains for which fitness costs of resistance were not sufficient to prevent transmission, whereas those collected from treatment-experienced patients reflect both transmitted and acquired resistance, the latter of which may or may not be associated with lower transmissibility. The comparison of the resistance pathways constructed from these two groups of drug-resistant strains provides insight into which pathways preferentially lead to the development of multiple drug resistant strains that are transmissible. We apply the proposed statistical methods to data from worldwide surveillance of drug-resistant tuberculosis collected by the World Health Organization over 13 years.     

Eurasian-origin gene segments contribute to the transmissibility, aerosol release, and morphology of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus

The epidemiological success of pandemic and epidemic influenza A viruses relies on the ability to transmit efficiently from person-to-person via respiratory droplets. Respiratory droplet (RD) transmission of influenza viruses requires efficient replication and release of infectious influenza particles into the air. The 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) virus originated by reassortment of a North American triple reassortant swine (TRS) virus with a Eurasian swine virus that contributed the neuraminidase (NA) and M gene segments. Both the TRS and Eurasian swine viruses caused sporadic infections in humans, but failed to spread from person-to-person, unlike the pH1N1 virus. We evaluated the pH1N1 and its precursor viruses in a ferret model to determine the contribution of different viral gene segments on the release of influenza virus particles into the air and on the transmissibility of the pH1N1 virus. We found that the Eurasian-origin gene segments contributed to efficient RD transmission of the pH1N1 virus likely by modulating the release of influenza viral RNA-containing particles into the air. All viruses replicated well in the upper respiratory tract of infected ferrets, suggesting that factors other than viral replication are important for the release of influenza virus particles and transmission. Our studies demonstrate that the release of influenza viral RNA-containing particles into the air correlates with increased NA activity. Additionally, the pleomorphic phenotype of the pH1N1 virus is dependent upon the Eurasian-origin gene segments, suggesting a link between transmission and virus morphology. We have demonstrated that the viruses are released into exhaled air to varying degrees and a constellation of genes influences the transmissibility of the pH1N1 virus.     

Emergence of drug resistance: implications for antiviral control of pandemic influenza

Given the danger of an unprecedented spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 in humans, and great challenges to the development of an effective influenza vaccine, antiviral drugs will probably play a pivotal role in combating a novel pandemic strain. A critical limitation to the use of these drugs is the evolution of highly transmissible drug-resistant viral mutants. Here, we develop a mathematical model to evaluate the potential impact of an antiviral treatment strategy on the emergence of drug resistance and containment of a pandemic. The results show that elimination of the wild-type strain depends crucially on both the early onset of treatment in indexed cases and population-level treatment. Given the probable delay of 0.5-1 day in seeking healthcare and therefore initiating therapy, the findings indicate that a single strategy of antiviral treatment will be unsuccessful at controlling the spread of disease if the reproduction number of the wild-type strain (R0s) exceeds 1.4. We demonstrate the possible occurrence of a self-sustaining epidemic of resistant strain, in terms of its transmission fitness relative to the wild-type, and the reproduction number R0s. Considering reproduction numbers estimated for the past three pandemics, the findings suggest that an uncontrollable pandemic is likely to occur if resistant viruses with relative transmission fitness above 0.4 emerge. While an antiviral strategy is crucial for containing a pandemic, its effectiveness depends critically on timely and strategic use of drugs.     

The M segment of the 2009 new pandemic H1N1 influenza virus is critical for its high transmission efficiency in the guinea pig model

A remarkable feature of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus is its efficient transmissibility in humans compared to that of precursor strains from the triple-reassortant swine influenza virus lineage, which cause only sporadic infections in humans. The viral components essential for this phenotype have not been fully elucidated. In this study, we aimed to determine the viral factors critical for aerosol transmission of the 2009 pandemic virus. Single or multiple segment reassortments were made between the pandemic A/California/04/09 (H1N1) (Cal/09) virus and another H1N1 strain, A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (H1N1) (PR8). These viruses were then tested in the guinea pig model to understand which segment of Cal/09 virus conferred transmissibility to the poorly transmissible PR8 virus. We confirmed our findings by generating recombinant A/swine/Texas/1998 (H3N2) (sw/Tx/98) virus, a representative triple-reassortant swine virus, containing segments of the Cal/09 virus. The data showed that the M segment of the Cal/09 virus promoted aerosol transmissibility to recombinant viruses with PR8 and sw/Tx/98 virus backgrounds, suggesting that the M segment is a critical factor supporting the transmission of the 2009 pandemic virus.     

Efficient transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses with high-level oseltamivir resistance

The limited availability of approved influenza virus antivirals highlights the importance of studying the fitness and transmissibility of drug-resistant viruses. S247N is a novel, naturally occurring N1 neuraminidase mutation that reduces oseltamivir sensitivity and greatly potentiates oseltamivir resistance in the context of the H275Y mutation. Here we show that highly oseltamivir-resistant viruses containing both the S247N and H275Y mutations transmit efficiently in the guinea pig transmission model.     

Linking influenza virus tissue tropism to population-level reproductive fitness

Influenza virus tissue tropism defines the host cells and tissues that support viral replication and contributes to determining which regions of the respiratory tract are infected in humans. The location of influenza virus infection along the respiratory tract is a key determinant of virus pathogenicity and transmissibility, which are at the basis of influenza burdens in the human population. As the pathogenicity and transmissibility of influenza virus ultimately determine its reproductive fitness at the population level, strong selective pressures will shape influenza virus tissue tropisms that maximize fitness. At present, the relationships between influenza virus tissue tropism within hosts and reproductive fitness at the population level are poorly understood. The selective pressures and constraints that shape tissue tropism and thereby influence the location of influenza virus infection along the respiratory tract are not well characterized. We use mathematical models that link within-host infection dynamics in a spatially-structured human respiratory tract to between-host transmission dynamics, with the aim of characterizing the possible selective pressures on influenza virus tissue tropism. The results indicate that spatial heterogeneities in virus clearance, virus pathogenicity or both, resulting from the unique structure of the respiratory tract, may drive optimal receptor binding affinity-that maximizes influenza virus reproductive fitness at the population level-towards sialic acids with α2,6 linkage to galactose. The expanding cell pool deeper down the respiratory tract, in association with lower clearance rates, may result in optimal infectivity rates-that likewise maximize influenza virus reproductive fitness at the population level-to exhibit a decreasing trend towards deeper regions of the respiratory tract. Lastly, pre-existing immunity may drive influenza virus tissue tropism towards upper regions of the respiratory tract. The proposed framework provides a new template for the cross-scale study of influenza virus evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics in humans.     

Highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak mitigated by seasonal low pathogenic strains: Insights from dynamic modeling

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 remains a threat for both wild and domestic bird populations, while low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) strains have been reported to induce partial immunity to HPAI in poultry and some wild birds inoculated with both HPAI and LPAI strains. Here, based on the reported data and experiments, we develop a two-strain avian influenza model to examine the extent to which this partial immunity observed at the individual level can affect the outcome of the outbreaks among migratory birds in the wild at the population level during different seasons. We find a distinct mitigating effect of LPAI on the death toll induced by HPAI strain, and this effect is particularly important for populations previously exposed to and recovered from LPAI. We further investigate the effect of the dominant mode of transmission of an HPAI strain on the outcome of the epidemic. Four combinations of contact based direct transmission and indirect fecal-to-oral (or environmental) routes are examined. For a given infection peak of HPAI, indirect fecal-to-oral transmission of HPAI can lead to a higher death toll than that associated with direct transmission. The mitigating effect of LPAI can, in turn, be dependent on the route of infection of HPAI.     

Estimation of Cross-Immunity Between Drifted Strains of Influenza A/H3N2

To determine the cross-immunity between influenza strains, we design a novel statistical method, which uses a theoretical model and clinical data on attack rates and vaccine efficacy among school children for two seasons after the 1968 A/H3N2 influenza pandemic. This model incorporates the distribution of susceptibility and the dependence of cross-immunity on the antigenic distance of drifted strains. We find that the cross-immunity between an influenza strain and the mutant that causes the next epidemic is 88%. Our method also gives estimates of the vaccine protection against the vaccinating strain, and the basic reproduction number of the 1968 pandemic influenza.     

Key Molecular Factors in Hemagglutinin and PB2 Contribute to Efficient Transmission of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Virus

Animal influenza viruses pose a clear threat to public health. Transmissibility among humans is a prerequisite for a novel influenza virus to cause a human pandemic. A novel reassortant swine influenza virus acquired sustained human-to-human transmissibility and caused the 2009 influenza pandemic. However, the molecular aspects of influenza virus transmission remain poorly understood. Here, we show that an amino acid in hemagglutinin (HA) is important for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic virus (2009/H1N1) to bind to human virus receptors and confer respiratory droplet transmissibility in mammals. We found that the change from glutamine (Q) to arginine (R) at position 226 of HA, which causes a switch in receptor-binding preference from human α-2,6 to avian α-2,3 sialic acid, resulted in a virus incapable of respiratory droplet transmission in guinea pigs and reduced the virus's ability to replicate in the lungs of ferrets. The change from alanine (A) to threonine (T) at position 271 of PB2 also abolished the virus's respiratory droplet transmission in guinea pigs, and this mutation, together with the HA Q226R mutation, abolished the virus's respiratory droplet transmission in ferrets. Furthermore, we found that amino acid 271A of PB2 plays a key role in virus acquisition of the mutation at position 226 of HA that confers human receptor recognition. Our results highlight the importance of both the PB2 and HA genes on the adaptation and transmission of influenza viruses in humans and provide important insights for monitoring and evaluating the pandemic potential of field influenza viruses.     

PB1-F2 Proteins from H5N1 and 20th Century Pandemic Influenza Viruses Cause Immunopathology

With the recent emergence of a novel pandemic strain, there is presently intense interest in understanding the molecular signatures of virulence of influenza viruses. PB1-F2 proteins from epidemiologically important influenza A virus strains were studied to determine their function and contribution to virulence. Using 27-mer peptides derived from the C-terminal sequence of PB1-F2 and chimeric viruses engineered on a common background, we demonstrated that induction of cell death through PB1-F2 is dependent upon BAK/BAX mediated cytochrome c release from mitochondria. This function was specific for the PB1-F2 protein of A/Puerto Rico/8/34 and was not seen using PB1-F2 peptides derived from past pandemic strains. However, PB1-F2 proteins from the three pandemic strains of the 20^th century and a highly pathogenic strain of the H5N1 subtype were shown to enhance the lung inflammatory response resulting in increased pathology. Recently circulating seasonal influenza A strains were not capable of this pro-inflammatory function, having lost the PB1-F2 protein''s immunostimulatory activity through truncation or mutation during adaptation in humans. These data suggest that the PB1-F2 protein contributes to the virulence of pandemic strains when the PB1 gene segment is recently derived from the avian reservoir.     

Identifying Selection in the Within-Host Evolution of Influenza Using Viral Sequence Data

The within-host evolution of influenza is a vital component of its epidemiology. A question of particular interest is the role that selection plays in shaping the viral population over the course of a single infection. We here describe a method to measure selection acting upon the influenza virus within an individual host, based upon time-resolved genome sequence data from an infection. Analysing sequence data from a transmission study conducted in pigs, describing part of the haemagglutinin gene (HA1) of an influenza virus, we find signatures of non-neutrality in six of a total of sixteen infections. We find evidence for both positive and negative selection acting upon specific alleles, while in three cases, the data suggest the presence of time-dependent selection. In one infection we observe what is potentially a specific immune response against the virus; a non-synonymous mutation in an epitope region of the virus is found to be under initially positive, then strongly negative selection. Crucially, given the lack of homologous recombination in influenza, our method accounts for linkage disequilibrium between nucleotides at different positions in the haemagglutinin gene, allowing for the analysis of populations in which multiple mutations are present at any given time. Our approach offers a new insight into the dynamics of influenza infection, providing a detailed characterisation of the forces that underlie viral evolution.     

Qualitative analysis of the level of cross-protection between epidemic waves of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic

The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic was composed of multiple waves within a period of nine months in several regions of the world. Increasing our understanding of the mechanisms responsible for this multi-wave profile has important public health implications. We model the transmission dynamics of two strains of influenza interacting via cross-immunity to simulate two temporal waves of influenza and explore the impact of the basic reproduction number, as a measure of transmissibility associated to each influenza strain, cross-immunity and the timing of the onset of the second influenza epidemic on the pandemic profile. We use time series of case notifications during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland, for illustration. We calibrate our mathematical model to the initial wave of infection to estimate the basic reproduction number of the first wave and the corresponding timing of onset of the second influenza variant. We use this information to explore the impact of cross-immunity levels on the dynamics of the second wave of influenza. Our results for the 1918 pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland, indicate that a second wave can occur whenever R₀₁<1.5 or when cross-immunity levels are less than 0.58 for our estimated R₀₂ of 2.4. We also explore qualitatively profiles of two-wave pandemics and compare them with real temporal profiles of the 1918 influenza pandemic in other regions of the world including several Scandinavian cities, New York City, England and Wales, and Sydney, Australia. Pandemic profiles are classified into three broad categories namely “right-handed”, “left-handed”, and “M-shape”. Our results indicate that avoiding a second influenza epidemic is plausible given sufficient levels of cross-protection are attained via natural infection during an early (herald) wave of infection or vaccination campaigns prior to a second wave. Furthermore, interventions aimed at mitigating the first pandemic wave may be counterproductive by increasing the chances of a second wave of infection that could potentially be more virulent than the first.     

A geographical spread of vaccine-resistance in avian influenza epidemics

Vaccination can be a useful tool for control of avian influenza outbreaks in poultry, but its use is reconsidered in most of the countries worldwide because of its negative effects on the disease control. One of the most important negative effects is the potential for emergence of vaccine-resistant viruses. Actually, in the vaccination program in China and Mexico, several vaccine-resistant strains were confirmed. Vaccine-resistant strains usually cause a loss of the protection effectiveness of vaccination. Therefore, a vaccination program that engenders the emergence of the resistant strain might promote the spread of the resistant strain and undermine the control of the infectious disease, even if the vaccination protects against the transmission of a vaccine-sensitive strain. We designed and analyzed a deterministic patch-structured model in heterogeneous areas (with or without vaccination) illustrating transmission of vaccine-sensitive and vaccine-resistant strains during a vaccination program. We found that the vaccination program can eradicate the vaccine-sensitive strain but lead to a prevalence of vaccine-resistant strain. Further, interestingly, the replacement of viral strain could occur in another area without vaccination through a migration of non-infectious individuals due to an illegal trade of poultry. It is also a novel result that only a complete eradication of both strains in vaccination area can achieve the complete eradication in another areas. Thus we can obtain deeper understanding of an effect of vaccination for better development of vaccination strategies to control avian influenza spread.     

A Multi-scale Analysis of Influenza A Virus Fitness Trade-offs due to Temperature-dependent Virus Persistence

Successful replication within an infected host and successful transmission between hosts are key to the continued spread of most pathogens. Competing selection pressures exerted at these different scales can lead to evolutionary trade-offs between the determinants of fitness within and between hosts. Here, we examine such a trade-off in the context of influenza A viruses and the differential pressures exerted by temperature-dependent virus persistence. For a panel of avian influenza A virus strains, we find evidence for a trade-off between the persistence at high versus low temperatures. Combining a within-host model of influenza infection dynamics with a between-host transmission model, we study how such a trade-off affects virus fitness on the host population level. We show that conclusions regarding overall fitness are affected by the type of link assumed between the within- and between-host levels and the main route of transmission (direct or environmental). The relative importance of virulence and immune response mediated virus clearance are also found to influence the fitness impacts of virus persistence at low versus high temperatures. Based on our results, we predict that if transmission occurs mainly directly and scales linearly with virus load, and virulence or immune responses are negligible, the evolutionary pressure for influenza viruses to evolve toward good persistence at high within-host temperatures dominates. For all other scenarios, influenza viruses with good environmental persistence at low temperatures seem to be favored.     

Coexistence conditions for strains of influenza with immune cross-reaction

The accumulation of cross-immunity in the host population is an important factor driving the antigenic evolution of viruses such as influenza A. Mathematical models have shown that the strength of temporary non-specific cross-immunity and the basic reproductive number are both key determinants for evolutionary branching of the antigenic phenotype. Here we develop deterministic and stochastic versions of one such model. We examine how the time of emergence or introduction of a novel strain affects co-existence with existing strains and hence the initial establishment of a new evolutionary branch. We also clarify the roles of cross-immunity and the basic reproductive number in this process. We show that the basic reproductive number is important because it affects the frequency of infection, which influences the long term immune profile of the host population. The time at which a new strain appears relative to the epidemic peak of an existing strain is important because it determines the environment the emergent mutant experiences in terms of the short term immune profile of the host population. Strains are more likely to coexist, and hence to establish a new clade in the viral phylogeny, when there is a significant time overlap between their epidemics. It follows that the majority of antigenic drift in influenza is expected to occur in the earlier part of each transmission season and this is likely to be a key surveillance period for detecting emerging antigenic novelty.     

Antigenic Diversity,Transmission Mechanisms,and the Evolution of Pathogens

Pathogens have evolved diverse strategies to maximize their transmission fitness. Here we investigate these strategies for directly transmitted pathogens using mathematical models of disease pathogenesis and transmission, modeling fitness as a function of within- and between-host pathogen dynamics. The within-host model includes realistic constraints on pathogen replication via resource depletion and cross-immunity between pathogen strains. We find three distinct types of infection emerge as maxima in the fitness landscape, each characterized by particular within-host dynamics, host population contact network structure, and transmission mode. These three infection types are associated with distinct non-overlapping ranges of levels of antigenic diversity, and well-defined patterns of within-host dynamics and between-host transmissibility. Fitness, quantified by the basic reproduction number, also falls within distinct ranges for each infection type. Every type is optimal for certain contact structures over a range of contact rates. Sexually transmitted infections and childhood diseases are identified as exemplar types for low and high contact rates, respectively. This work generates a plausible mechanistic hypothesis for the observed tradeoff between pathogen transmissibility and antigenic diversity, and shows how different classes of pathogens arise evolutionarily as fitness optima for different contact network structures and host contact rates.