Predicting potential distribution of Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen in China under climate change scenarios

Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen is a woody plant species of the family Rhamnaceae (order Rhamnales) that possesses high nutritional and medicinal value. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of Z. spinosa is of great significance for the investigation, protection, and exploitation of this germplasm resource. For this study, optimized maximum entropy models were employed to predict the distribution patterns and changes of its present (1970–2000) and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) potential suitable regions in China under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 & SSP5‐8.5). The results revealed that the total area of the present potential suitable region for Z. spinosa is 162.60 × 10⁴ km², which accounts for 16.94% of China''s territory. Within this area, the regions having low, medium, and high suitability were 80.14 × 10⁴ km², 81.50 × 10⁴ km², and 0.96 × 10⁴ km², respectively, with the high suitability regions being distributed primarily in Shanxi, Hebei, and Beijing Provinces. Except for SSP‐1‐2.6‐2070s, SSP‐5‐8.5‐2070s, and SSP‐5‐8.5‐2090s, the suitable areas for Z. spinosa in the future increased to different degrees. Meanwhile, considering the distribution of Z. spinosa during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study predicted that the low impact areas of Z. spinosa were mainly restricted to Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin Provinces. The results of core distributional shifts showed that, except for SSP1‐2.6, the center of the potential suitable region of Z. spinosa exhibited a trend of gradually shifting to the northwest.     

Projected impacts of climate change on snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province,China

Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate‐related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km² under current conditions and 228,997 km² under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km² and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.     

Potential distribution of Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang and its predicted responses to climate change based on a comprehensive habitat suitability model

Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang is a rare and endangered traditional Chinese medicinal plant. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species in the present and future in China. First, using nine different algorithms, we built an ensemble model to explore the possible impacts of climate change on the habitat distribution of this species. Then, based on this model, we built a CHS model to further identify the distribution characteristics of N. incisum‐suitable habitats in three time periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s) while considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for N. incisum covers approximately 83.76 × 10³ km², and these locations were concentrated in the Tibet Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, and Sichuan Province. In the future, the areas of suitable habitat for N. incisum would significantly decrease and would be 69.53 × 10³ km² and 60.21 × 10³ km² in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. However, the area of marginally suitable habitat would remain relatively stable. This study provides a more reliable and comprehensive method for modelling the current and future distributions of N. incisum, and it provides valuable insights for highlighting priority areas for medicinal plant conservation and resource utilization.     

Simulation of the potential distribution of rare and endangered Satyrium species in China under climate change

Satyrium is an endangered and rare genus of plant that has various pharmacodynamic functions. In this study, optimized MaxEnt models were used in analyzing potential geographical distributions under current and future climatic conditions (the 2050s and 2070s) and dominant environmental variables influencing their geographic distribution. The results provided reference for implementation of long‐term conservation and management approaches for the species. The results showed that the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium ciliatum (S. ciliatum) in China is 32.51 × 10⁴ km², the total suitable habitat area for Satyrium nepalense (S. nepalense) in China is 61.76 × 10⁴ km², and the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium yunnanense (S. yunnanense) in China is 89.73 × 10⁴ km² under current climatic conditions. The potential suitable habitat of Satyrium is mainly distributed in Southwest China. The major environmental variables influencing the geographical distribution of S. ciliatum were isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11). Environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) affected the geographical distribution of S. nepalense; and environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and lower temperature of coldest month (bio6) affected the geographical distribution of S. yunnanense. The distribution range of Satyrium was extended as global warming increased, showing emissions of greenhouse gases with lower concentration (SSP1‐2.6) and higher concentration (SSP5‐8.5). According to the study, the distribution of suitable habitat will shift with a change to higher elevation areas and higher latitude areas in the future.     

Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change

Climate change is one of the major threats to global amphibian diversity, and consequently, the species distribution is expected to shift considerably in the future. Therefore, predicting such shifts is important to guide conservation and management plans. Here, we used eight independent environmental variables and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to model the current and future habitat suitability of the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus) and then defined the dispersal limits of the species using cost distance analysis. The current habitat suitability model generated using the maximum entropy algorithm was highly consistent with the known distribution of the species and had good predictive performance. Projections onto years 2050 and 2070 predicted a drastic decrease of habitat suitability across all RCPs, with up to 90.1% decrease of suitable area and 98.0% decrease of optimal area predicted from binary presence grids. The models also predicted a northeastward shift of habitat suitability toward high‐elevation areas and a persistence of suitability along the central ridge of the Baekdudaegan Range. This area is likely to become a climatic refugium for the species in the future, and it should be considered as an area of conservation priority. Therefore, we urge further ecological studies and population monitoring to be conducted across the range of O. koreanus. The vulnerability to rapid climate change is also shared by other congeneric species, and assessing the impacts of climate change on these other species is needed to better conserve this unique lineage of salamanders.     

The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past,present, and future distribution

Fagus mexicana Martínez (Mexican beech) is an endangered Arcto‐Tertiary Geoflora tree species that inhabit isolated and fragmented tropical montane cloud forests in eastern Mexico. Exploring past, present, and future climate change effects on the distribution of Mexican beech involves the study of spatial ecology and temporal patterns to develop conservation plans. These are key to understanding the niche conservatism of other forest communities with similar environmental requirements. For this study, we used species distribution models by combining occurrence records, to assess the distribution patterns and changes of the past (Last Glacial Maximum), present (1981–2010), and future (2040–2070) periods under two climate scenarios (SSP 3‐7.0 & SSP 5‐8.5). Next, we determined the habitat suitability and priority conservation areas of Mexican beech as associated with topography, land cover use, distance to the nearest town, and environmental variables. By considering the distribution of Mexican beech during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study estimated that high‐impact areas of Mexican beech forests were restricted to specific areas of the Sierra Madre Oriental that constitute refugia from the Last Glacial Maximum. Regrettably, our results exhibited that Mexican beech distribution has decreased 71.3% since the Last Glacial Maximum and this trend will for the next 50 years, migrating to specific refugia at higher altitudes. This suggests that the states of Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Puebla will preserve the habitat suitability features as ecological refugia, related to high moisture and north‐facing slopes. For isolated and difficult‐to‐access areas, the proposed methods are powerful tools for relict‐tree species, which deserve further conservation.     

Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change

Identifying the factors predicting the high‐elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in eastern Tajikistan. This study used environmental niche models (ENMs) to map and compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for Marco Polo argali. Argali occurrence points were collected during field surveys conducted from 2009 to 2016. Our models showed that terrain ruggedness and annual mean temperature had strong correlations on argali distribution. We then used two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time periods (2050 and 2070) to model the impacts of climate change on Marco Polo argali habitat. Results indicated a decline of suitable habitat with majority of losses observed at lower elevations (3,300–4,300 m). Models that considered all variables (climatic and nonclimatic) predicted losses of present suitable areas of 60.6% (6,928 km²) and 63.2% (7,219 km²) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Results also showed averaged habitat gains of 46.2% (6,106 km²) at much higher elevations (4,500–6,900 m) and that elevational shifts of habitat use could occur in the future. Our results could provide information for conservation planning for this near threatened species in the region.     

Genetic structure and life history are key factors in species distribution models of spiny lobsters

AimWe incorporated genetic structure and life history phase in species distribution models (SDMs) constructed for a widespread spiny lobster, to reveal local adaptations specific to individual subspecies and predict future range shifts under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario.LocationIndo‐West Pacific.MethodsMaxEnt was used to construct present‐day SDMs for the spiny lobster Panulirus homarus and individually for the three genetically distinct subspecies of which it comprises. SDMs incorporated both sea surface and benthic (seafloor) climate layers to recreate discrete influences of these habitats during the drifting larval and benthic juvenile and adult life history phases. Principle component analysis (PCA) was used to infer environmental variables to which individual subspecies were adapted. SDM projections of present‐day habitat suitability were compared with predictions for the year 2,100, under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario.ResultsIn the PCA, salinity best explained P. h. megasculptus habitat suitability, compared with current velocity in P. h. rubellus and sea surface temperature in P. h. homarus. Drifting and benthic life history phases were adapted to different combinations of sea surface and benthic environmental variables considered. Highly suitable habitats for benthic phases were spatially enveloped within more extensive sea surface habitats suitable for drifting larvae. SDMs predicted that present‐day highly suitable habitats for P. homarus will decrease by the year 2,100.Main conclusionsIncorporating genetic structure in SDMs showed that individual spiny lobster subspecies had unique adaptations, which could not be resolved in species‐level models. The use of sea surface and benthic climate layers revealed the relative importance of environmental variables during drifting and benthic life history phases. SDMs that included genetic structure and life history were more informative in predictive models of climate change effects.     

气候变化对丹顶鹤秋季迁徙路线潜在生境适宜性的影响

目前全球变暖趋势的加剧对丹顶鹤等大型濒危水禽的栖息地造成了严重的威胁。由于监测方法和技术手段的限制,丹顶鹤在迁徙路线上潜在生境的分布范围尚不清楚,气候变化对丹顶鹤迁徙路线生境适宜性的影响机理有待进一步研究。基于138个丹顶鹤样本分布信息和19种环境变量数据,利用 BIOMOD2 软件包构建了丹顶鹤潜在生境评价的组合模型,对丹顶鹤在亚洲东部秋季迁徙路线上的生境适宜性进行数值模拟,并预测SSP1.2-6气候背景下2021-2040年、2041-2060年、2061-2080年、2081-2100年四个不同阶段的丹顶鹤潜在生境范围的变化趋势。研究结果表明:与单模型的模拟结果相比,集成9种单模型的BIOMOD2组合模型预测精度更高。集成模型的重要性分析表明,气温日较差是丹顶鹤生境适宜性变化的最重要的影响因子。受气候变化的影响2021-2040年、2041-2060年、2061-2080年、2081-2100年丹顶鹤潜在生境的面积将分别减少到2.60×10⁵km²、2.58×10⁵km²、2.75×10⁵km²、2.56×10⁵km²,迁徙路线上胶东半岛和环渤海地区适栖生境面积减少的最为显著。本研究对于迁徙路线上珍稀水禽潜在适宜生境的模拟及全球变化背景下珍稀水禽栖息地的保育和修复具有重要意义。     

Fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus distribution and habitat suitability in Nepal

The fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus is a wetland specialist species endemic to South and Southeast Asia. Nepal represents the northern limit of its biogeographic range, but comprehensive information on fishing cat distribution in Nepal is lacking. To assess their distribution, we compiled fishing cat occurrence records (n = 154) from Nepal, available in published literature and unpublished data (2009–2020). Bioclimatic and environmental variables associated with their occurrence were used to predict the fishing cat habitat suitability using MaxEnt modeling. Fishing cat habitat suitability was associated with elevation (152–302 m), precipitation of the warmest quarter, i.e., April–June (668–1014 mm), precipitation of the driest month (4–7 mm), and land cover (forest/grassland and wetland). The model predicted an area of 4.4% (6679 km²) of Nepal as potential habitat for the fishing cat. About two‐thirds of the predicted potentially suitable habitat lies outside protected areas; however, a large part of the highly suitable habitat (67%) falls within protected areas. The predicted habitat suitability map serves as a reference for future investigation into fishing cat distribution as well as formulating and implementing effective conservation programs in Nepal. Fishing cat conservation initiatives should include habitats inside and outside the protected areas to ensure long‐term survival. We recommend conservation of wetland sites, surveys of fishing cats in the identified potential habitats, and studying their genetic connectivity and population status.     

Current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub Hydrangea macrophylla in China estimated by MaxEnt

Climate change has a significant impact on the growth and distribution of vegetation worldwide. Hydrangea macrophylla is widely distributed and considered a model species for studying the distribution and responses of shrub plants under climate change. These results can inform decision‐making regarding shrub plant protection, management, and introduction of germplasm resources, and are of great importance for formulating ecological countermeasures to climate change in the future. We used the maximum entropy model to predict the change, scope expansion/reduction, centroid movement, and dominant climate factors that restrict the growth and distribution of H. macrophylla in China under current and future climate change scenarios. It was found that both precipitation and temperature affect the distribution of suitable habitat for H. macrophylla. Akaike information criterion (AICc) was used to select the feature combination (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM). After the establishment of the optimal model (FC = QP, RM = 0.5), the complexity and over‐fitting degree of the model were low (delta AICc = 0, omission rate = 0.026, difference between training and testing area under the curve values = 0.0009), indicating that it had high accuracy in predicting the potential geographical distribution of H. macrophylla (area under the curve = 0.979). Overall, from the current period to future, the potential suitable habitat of this species in China expanded to the north. The greenhouse effect caused by an increase in CO₂ emissions would not only increase the area of high‐suitability habitat in Central China, but also expand the area of total suitable habitat in the north. Under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), the migration distance of the centroid was the longest (e.g., By 2070s, the centroids of total and highly suitable areas have shifted 186.15 km and 89.84 km, respectively).     

Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park,China

Climate change has direct impacts on wildlife and future biodiversity protection efforts. Vulnerability assessment and habitat connectivity analyses are necessary for drafting effective conservation strategies for threatened species such as the Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus). We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the current (1950–2000) and future (2041–2060) habitat suitability by combining bioclimatic and environmental variables, and identified potential climate refugia for Tibetan brown bears in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China. Next, we selected Circuit model to simulate potential migration paths based on current and future climatically suitable habitat. Results indicate a total area of potential suitable habitat under the current climate scenario of approximately 31,649.46 km², of which 28,778.29 km² would be unsuitable by the 2050s. Potentially suitable habitat under the future climate scenario was projected to cover an area of 23,738.6 km². Climate refugia occupied 2,871.17 km², primarily in the midwestern and northeastern regions of Yangtze River Zone, as well as the northern region of Yellow River Zone. The altitude of climate refugia ranged from 4,307 to 5,524 m, with 52.93% lying at altitudes between 4,300 and 4,600 m. Refugia were mainly distributed on bare rock, alpine steppe, and alpine meadow. Corridors linking areas of potentially suitable brown bear habitat and a substantial portion of paths with low‐resistance value were distributed in climate refugia. We recommend various actions to ameliorate the impact of climate change on brown bears, such as protecting climatically suitable habitat, establishing habitat corridors, restructuring conservation areas, and strengthening monitoring efforts.     

气候变化情景下裸冠菊在中国的潜在适生区分布预测

外来入侵植物裸冠菊(Gymnocoronis spilanthoides)具有较强的入侵适应性能快速繁殖扩散,会对本土物种的生长繁殖及本地生态安全、景观格局等产生不良影响。基于265个有效分布点和7个环境变量,调整优化预测模型的调控倍频和特征组合参数,应用MaxEnt、ArcGIS、R软件预测当前和未来(2050s, 2070s)不同气候情景(SSP126, SSP245,SSP370, SSP585)下裸冠菊在中国的潜在地理分布,定量分析其适生区的空间变化及质心移动轨迹,最后采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)和测试遗漏率评估模型的精确性。未来气候模式选择中国国家气候中心开发的CMIP6中BCC-CSM2-MR。结果表明：(1)模型预测结果极准确,各组模型的AUC值均高于0.97;(2)最干季降水量(bio17)、最冷季度平均温(bio11)、温度季节性变化(bio4)和最暖季度平均降雨量(bio18)是影响裸冠菊地理分布的主导气候因子;(3)当前气候条件下,裸冠菊的总适生区面积达到191.18×10⁴km²,约占国土总面积的1...     

Mapping potential wildlife habitats around Haro Abba Diko controlled hunting area,Western Ethiopia

Remote sensing and geographic information system technologies provide useful data to analyze and map potential wildlife habitats based on physical parameters collected from the field. HADCHA was established with a total area of 20,000 ha, while many more comparable potential wildlife habitats were left outside the area. This study aims to identify and map potential wildlife habitats around HADCHA. Data were collected using Landsat 5 thematic mapper and Sentinel‐2A satellite image, a digital elevation model with 30 m pixels downloaded from ASTER data, and existing GIS Shapefile layers. Thematic Mapper data were downloaded from USGS and processed with Erdas Imagine 2015 software. To evaluate potential wildlife habitat around HADCHA, habitat suitability parameters such as settlement, slope, water, and road buffer zones were used for habitat evaluation and mapping. Accordingly, 16,795 ha of potential wildlife habitats were identified and mapped on westwards of HADCHA. In the new PPWH, about 476.68 ha (2.84%) were moderately suitable, 14,119.17 ha (84.04%) suitable and 2,200.08 ha (13.10%) highly suitable but only 4.2 ha (0.02%) identified as unsuitable. Legal protection of the PPWH around HADCHA could increase the conservation of African buffalo, other mammals, and their habitats. While the mapped potential wildlife habitats had the potential to be parts of HADCHA, it was neglected and has not yet obtained conservation attention. The finding appeals for legal protection of the PPWH and expansion of HADCHA, which could maximize the conservation efforts taken to wild animals of the area. Neglecting this potential wildlife habitat for a long period of time exposed African buffalo and other large‐sized mammals to illegal hunting practices. Policymakers and conservationists shall revise and design the future action plan of HADCHA on how to expand the current‐controlled hunting area and maximize revenue generation from African buffalo and other potential trophy species of the area.     

Widespread occurrence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Ontario,Canada, and predicted habitat suitability for the emerging Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans

Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungi Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, is associated with massive amphibian mortality events worldwide and with some species’ extinctions. Previous ecological niche models suggest that B. dendrobatidis is not well‐suited to northern, temperate climates, but these predictions have often relied on datasets in which northern latitudes are underrepresented. Recent northern detections of B. dendrobatidis suggest that these models may have underestimated the suitability of higher latitudes for this fungus. We used qPCR to test for B. dendrobatidis in 1,041 non‐invasive epithelial swab samples from 18 species of amphibians collected across 735,345 km² in Ontario and Akimiski Island (Nunavut), Canada. We detected the pathogen in 113 samples (10.9%) from 11 species. Only one specimen exhibited potential clinical signs of disease. We used these data to produce six Species Distribution Models of B. dendrobatidis, which classified half of the study area as potential habitat for the fungus. We also tested each sample for B. salamandrivorans, an emerging pathogen that is causing alarming declines in European salamanders, but is not yet detected in North America. We did not detect B. salamandrivorans in any of the samples, providing a baseline for future surveillance. We assessed the potential risk of future introduction by comparing salamander richness to temperature‐dependent mortality, predicted by a previous exposure study. Areas with the highest species diversity and predicted mortality risk extended 60,530 km² across southern Ontario, highlighting the potential threat B. salamandrivorans poses to northern Nearctic amphibians. Preventing initial introduction will require coordinated, transboundary regulation of trade in amphibians (including frogs that can carry and disperse B. salamandrivorans), and surveillance of the pathways of introduction (e.g., water and wildlife). Our results can inform surveillance for both pathogens and efforts to mitigate the spread of chytridiomycosis through wild populations.     

Species distribution models for predicting the habitat suitability of Chinese fire‐bellied newt Cynops orientalis under climate change

Climate change influences species geographical distribution and diversity pattern. The Chinese fire‐bellied newt (Cynops orientalis) is an endemic species distributed in East‐central China, which has been classified as near‐threatened species recently due to habitat destruction and degradation and illegal trade in the domestic and international pet markets. So far, little is known about the spatial distribution of the species. Based on bioclimatic data of the current and future climate projections, we modeled the change in suitable habitat for C. orientalis by ten algorithms, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. In this study, 46 records of C. orientalis from East China and 8 bioclimatic variables were used. Among the ten modeling algorithms, four (GAM, GBM, Maxent, and RF) were selected according to their predictive abilities. The current habitat suitability showed that C. orientalis had a relatively wide but fragmented distribution, and it encompassed 41,862 km². The models suggested that precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio6) had the highest contribution to the model. This study revealed that C. orientalis is sensitive to climate change, which will lead to a large range shift. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of range shifts for C. orientalis should provide a useful reference for implementing long‐term conservation and management strategies for amphibians in East China.     

Predicting the distributions of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana tree species under current and future climate change scenarios in Ethiopia

Distributions of potential ranges of plant species are not yet fully known in Ethiopia where high climatic variability and vegetation types are found. This study was undertaken to predict distributions of suitable habitats of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana under current and two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2070) in Ethiopia. Eleven environmental variables with less correlation coefficients (r < 0.7) were used to make the prediction. Shifting in extents of habitat suitability and effects of elevation, solar radiation and topographic position in relation to the current and future climatic scenarios were statistically analysed using independent t-test and linear model. We found decreasing area of highly suitable habitat from 0.51% to 0.46%, 0.36% and 0.33%, 0.24% for Prunus africana and 1.13% to 1.02%, 0.77% and 0.76%, 0.60% for Pouteria adolfi-friederici, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by 2050 and 2070 respectively. Moist and dry afromontane forests are identified as the most suitable habitat for both species. Overall, our results suggest that climate change can promote dynamic suitable habitat niches under different future climate scenarios. Therefore, biodiversity conservation strategies should take into account habitat suitability dynamics issues and identify where to conserve species before implementing conservation practices.     

Impacts of temperature on giant panda habitat in the north Minshan Mountains

Understanding the impacts of meteorological factors on giant pandas is necessary for future conservation measures in response to global climate change. We integrated temperature data with three main habitat parameters (elevation, vegetation type, and bamboo species) to evaluate the influence of climate change on giant panda habitat in the northern Minshan Mountains using a habitat assessment model. Our study shows that temperature (relative importance = 25.1%) was the second most important variable influencing giant panda habitat excepting the elevation. There was a significant negative correlation between temperature and panda presence (ρ = −0.133, P < 0.05), and the temperature range preferred by giant pandas within the study area was 18–21°C, followed by 15–17°C and 22–24°C. The overall suitability of giant panda habitats will increase by 2.7%, however, it showed a opposite variation patterns between the eastern and northwestern region of the study area. Suitable and subsuitable habitats in the northwestern region of the study area, which is characterized by higher elevation and latitude, will increase by 18007.8 hm² (9.8% habitat suitability), while the eastern region will suffer a decrease of 9543.5 hm² (7.1% habitat suitability). Our results suggest that increasing areas of suitable giant panda habitat will support future giant panda expansion, and food shortage and insufficient living space will not arise as problems in the northwest Minshan Mountains, which means that giant pandas can adapt to climate change, and therefore may be resilient to climate change. Thus, for the safety and survival of giant pandas in the Baishuijiang Reserve, we propose strengthening the giant panda monitoring program in the west and improving the integrity of habitats to promote population dispersal with adjacent populations in the east.     

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province,China

Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species’ habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least‐cost model for the current period (1960–1990) and the 2050s (2041–2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least‐cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km² of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km² and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km² and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high‐priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.     

Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one‐third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high‐latitude regions. Similarly, at least one‐fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.