Accuracy of estimated phylogenetic trees from molecular data

Summary The accuracies and efficiencies of four different methods for constructing phylogenetic trees from molecular data were examined by using computer simulation. The methods examined are UPGMA, Fitch and Margoliash's (1967) (F/M) method, Farris' (1972) method, and the modified Farris method (Tateno, Nei, and Tajima, this paper). In the computer simulation, eight OTUs (32 OTUs in one case) were assumed to evolve according to a given model tree, and the evolutionary change of a sequence of 300 nucleotides was followed. The nucleotide substitution in this sequence was assumed to occur following the Poisson distribution, negative binomial distribution or a model of temporally varying rate. Estimates of nucleotide substitutions (genetic distances) were then computed for all pairs of the nucleotide sequences that were generated at the end of the evolution considered, and from these estimates a phylogenetic tree was reconstructed and compared with the true model tree. The results of this comparison indicate that when the coefficient of variation of branch length is large the Farris and modified Farris methods tend to be better than UPGMA and the F/M method for obtaining a good topology. For estimating the number of nucleotide substitutions for each branch of the tree, however, the modified Farris method shows a better performance than the Farris method. When the coefficient of variation of branch length is small, however, UPGMA shows the best performance among the four methods examined. Nevertheless, any tree-making method is likely to make errors in obtaining the correct topology with a high probability, unless all branch lengths of the true tree are sufficiently long. It is also shown that the agreement between patristic and observed genetic distances is not a good indicator of the goodness of the tree obtained.     

Accuracy of phylogenetic trees estimated from DNA sequence data

The relative merits of four different tree-making methods in obtaining the correct topology were studied by using computer simulation. The methods studied were the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA), Fitch and Margoliash's (FM) method, thd distance Wagner (DW) method, and Tateno et al.'s modified Farris (MF) method. An ancestral DNA sequence was assumed to evolve into eight sequences following a given model tree. Both constant and varying rates of nucleotide substitution were considered. Once the DNA sequences for the eight extant species were obtained, phylogenetic trees were constructed by using corrected (d) and uncorrected (p) nucleotide substitutions per site. The topologies of the trees obtained were then compared with that of the model tree. The results obtained can be summarized as follows: (1) The probability of obtaining the correct rooted or unrooted tree is low unless a large number of nucleotide differences exists between different sequences. (2) When the number of nucleotide substitutions per sequence is small or moderately large, the FM, DW, and MF methods show a better performance than UPGMA in recovering the correct topology. The former group of methods is particularly good for obtaining the correct unrooted tree. (3) When the number of substitutions per sequence is large, UPGMA is at least as good as the other methods, particularly for obtaining the correct rooted tree. (4) When the rate of nucleotide substitution varies with evolutionary lineage, the FM, DW, and MF methods show a better performance in obtaining the correct topology than UPGMA, except when a rooted tree is to be produced from data with a large number of nucleotide substitutions per sequence.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)      

A simple graphic method for reconstructing phylogenetic trees from molecular data

A simple graphic method is proposed for reconstructing phylogenetic trees from molecular data. This method is similar to the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean, but the process of computation of average distances and reconstruction of new matrices, required in the latter method, is eliminated from this new method, so that one can reconstruct a phylogenetic tree without using a computer, unless the number of operational taxonomic units is very large. Furthermore, this method allows a phylogenetic tree to have multifurcating branches whenever there is ambiguity with bifurcation.     

The augmentation algorithm and molecular phylogenetic trees

Summary The augmentation procedure of G.W. Moore leads to correct estimates of the total number of nucleotide substitutions separating two genes descendent from a common ancestor provided the data base is sufficiently dense. These estimates are in agreement with the true distance values from simulations of known evolutionary pathways. The estimates, on the average, are unbiased: they neither overaugment nor underaugment seriously. The variance of the population of augmented distance values reflects accurately the variance of the population of true distance values and is thus not abnormally large due to procedural defects in the algorithm.The augmented distances are in agreement with stochastic models tested on real data when the latter take proper account of the restricted mutability of codons resulting from natural selection.When the experimental data base is not dense, the augmented distance values and population variance may underestimate both the true distance values and their variance. This has a logical consequence that there exist significant and numerous errors in the ancestral sequences reconstructed by the parsimony principle from such data bases.The restrictions, resulting from natural selection, on the mutability of different nucleotide sites is shown to bear critically on the accuracy of estimates of the total number of nucleotide replacements made by stochastic models.     

The inference of evolutionary trees from molecular data.

1. Procedures for multiple alignment of sequence data, subsequent phylogenetic inference, and testing of the trees derived are presented. 2. The assumptions underlying different approaches and the extent to which they are valid are discussed.     

Estimation of evolutionary distance for reconstructing molecular phylogenetic trees

The most commonly used measure of evolutionary distance in molecular phylogenetics is the number of nucleotide substitutions per site. However, this number is not necessarily most efficient for reconstructing a phylogenetic tree. In order to evaluate the accuracy of evolutionary distance, D(t), for obtaining the correct tree topology, an accuracy index, A(t), was proposed. This index is defined as D'(t)/square root of[D(t)], where D'(t) is the first derivative of D(t) with respect to evolutionary time and V[D(t)] is the sampling variance of evolutionary distance. Using A(t), namely, finding the condition under which A(t) gives the maximum value, we can obtain an evolutionary distance which is efficient for obtaining the correct topology. Under the assumption that the transversional changes do not occur as frequently as the transitional changes, we obtained the evolutionary distances which are expected to give the correct topology more often than are the other distances.      

Effects of sequence diversity and recombination on the accuracy of phylogenetic trees estimated by kSNP

kSNP v2 is a powerful tool for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) identification from complete microbial genomes and for estimating phylogenetic trees from the identified SNPs. kSNP can analyse finished genomes, genome assemblies, raw reads or any combination of those and does not require either genome alignment or reference genomes. This study uses sequence evolution simulations to evaluate the topological accuracy of kSNP trees and to assess the effects of diversity and recombination on that accuracy. The accuracies of kSNP trees are strongly affected by increasing diversity, with parsimony accuracy > maximum‐likelihood accuracy > neighbour‐joining accuracy. Accuracy is also strongly influenced by recombination; as recombination increases accuracy decreases. Reliable trees are arbitrarily defined as those that have ≥ 90% topological accuracy. It is determined that the best predictor of topological accuracy is the ratio of r/m, a measure of the effect of recombination, to FCK (the fraction of core kmers), a measure of diversity. Tools are available to allow investigators to determine both r/m and FCK, and the relationship between topological accuracy and the ratio of r/m to FCK is determined. The practical implication of this study is that kSNP is an effective tool for estimating phylogenetic trees from microbial genome sequences provided that both recombination and sequence diversity are within acceptable ranges.     

Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees

Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.     

TREEasy: An automated workflow to infer gene trees,species trees,and phylogenetic networks from multilocus data

Multilocus genomic data sets can be used to infer a rich set of information about the evolutionary history of a lineage, including gene trees, species trees, and phylogenetic networks. However, user‐friendly tools to run such integrated analyses are lacking, and workflows often require tedious reformatting and handling time to shepherd data through a series of individual programs. Here, we present a tool written in Python—TREEasy—that performs automated sequence alignment (with MAFFT), gene tree inference (with IQ‐Tree), species inference from concatenated data (with IQ‐Tree and RaxML‐NG), species tree inference from gene trees (with ASTRAL, MP‐EST, and STELLS2), and phylogenetic network inference (with SNaQ and PhyloNet). The tool only requires FASTA files and nine parameters as inputs. The tool can be run as command line or through a Graphical User Interface (GUI). As examples, we reproduced a recent analysis of staghorn coral evolution, and performed a new analysis on the evolution of the “WGD clade” of yeast. The latter revealed novel patterns that were not identified by previous analyses. TREEasy represents a reliable and simple tool to accelerate research in systematic biology ( https://github.com/MaoYafei/TREEasy ).     

Predicting rates of interspecific interaction from phylogenetic trees

Integrating phylogenetic information can potentially improve our ability to explain species' traits, patterns of community assembly, the network structure of communities, and ecosystem function. In this study, we use mathematical models to explore the ecological and evolutionary factors that modulate the explanatory power of phylogenetic information for communities of species that interact within a single trophic level. We find that phylogenetic relationships among species can influence trait evolution and rates of interaction among species, but only under particular models of species interaction. For example, when interactions within communities are mediated by a mechanism of phenotype matching, phylogenetic trees make specific predictions about trait evolution and rates of interaction. In contrast, if interactions within a community depend on a mechanism of phenotype differences, phylogenetic information has little, if any, predictive power for trait evolution and interaction rate. Together, these results make clear and testable predictions for when and how evolutionary history is expected to influence contemporary rates of species interaction.     

Statistics for phylogenetic trees

This paper poses the problem of estimating and validating phylogenetic trees in statistical terms. The problem is hard enough to warrant several tacks: we reason by analogy to rounding real numbers, and dealing with ranking data. These are both cases where, as in phylogeny the parameters of interest are not real numbers. Then we pose the problem in geometrical terms, using distances and measures on a natural space of trees. We do not solve the problems of inference on tree space, but suggest some coherent ways of tackling them.     

Statistical measures of uncertainty for branches in phylogenetic trees inferred from molecular sequences by using model-based methods

In recent years, the emphasis of theoretical work on phylogenetic inference has shifted from the development of new tree inference methods to the development of methods to measure the statistical support for the topologies. This paper reviews 3 approaches to assign support values to branches in trees obtained in the analysis of molecular sequences: the bootstrap, the Bayesian posterior probabilities for clades, and the interior branch tests. In some circumstances, these methods give different answers. It should not be surprising: their assumptions are different. Thus the interior branch tests assume that a given topology is true and only consider if a particular branch length is longer than zero. If a tree is incorrect, a wrong branch (a low bootstrap or Bayesian support may be an indication) may have a non-zero length. If the substitution model is oversimplified, the length of a branch may be overestimated, and the Bayesian support for the branch may be inflated. The bootstrap, on the other hand, approximates the variance of the data under the real model of sequence evolution, because it involves direct resampling from this data. Thus the discrepancy between the Bayesian support and the bootstrap support may signal model inaccuracy. In practical application, use of all 3 methods is recommended, and if discrepancies are observed, then a careful analysis of their potential origins should be made.     

Probability distribution of molecular evolutionary trees: A new method of phylogenetic inference

A new method is presented for inferring evolutionary trees using nucleotide sequence data. The birth-death process is used as a model of speciation and extinction to specify the prior distribution of phylogenies and branching times. Nucleotide substitution is modeled by a continuous-time Markov process. Parameters of the branching model and the substitution model are estimated by maximum likelihood. The posterior probabilities of different phylogenies are calculated and the phylogeny with the highest posterior probability is chosen as the best estimate of the evolutionary relationship among species. We refer to this as the maximum posterior probability (MAP) tree. The posterior probability provides a natural measure of the reliability of the estimated phylogeny. Two example data sets are analyzed to infer the phylogenetic relationship of human, chimpanzee, gorilla, and orangutan. The best trees estimated by the new method are the same as those from the maximum likelihood analysis of separate topologies, but the posterior probabilities are quite different from the bootstrap proportions. The results of the method are found to be insensitive to changes in the rate parameter of the branching process. Correspondence to: Z. Yang     

BIMLR: A method for constructing rooted phylogenetic networks from rooted phylogenetic trees

Rooted phylogenetic trees constructed from different datasets (e.g. from different genes) are often conflicting with one another, i.e. they cannot be integrated into a single phylogenetic tree. Phylogenetic networks have become an important tool in molecular evolution, and rooted phylogenetic networks are able to represent conflicting rooted phylogenetic trees. Hence, the development of appropriate methods to compute rooted phylogenetic networks from rooted phylogenetic trees has attracted considerable research interest of late. The C_ASS algorithm proposed by van Iersel et al. is able to construct much simpler networks than other available methods, but it is extremely slow, and the networks it constructs are dependent on the order of the input data. Here, we introduce an improved C_ASS algorithm, BIMLR. We show that BIMLR is faster than C_ASS and less dependent on the input data order. Moreover, BIMLR is able to construct much simpler networks than almost all other methods. BIMLR is available at http://nclab.hit.edu.cn/wangjuan/BIMLR/.     

Evolutionary models of phylogenetic trees

The most widely used evolutionary model for phylogenetic trees is the equal-rates Markov (ERM) model. A problem is that the ERM model predicts less imbalance than observed for trees inferred from real data; in fact, the observed imbalance tends to fall between the values predicted by the ERM model and those predicted by the proportional-to-distinguishable-arrangements (PDA) model. Here, a continuous multi-rate (MR) family of evolutionary models is presented which contains entire subfamilies corresponding to both the PDA and ERM models. Furthermore, this MR family covers an entire range from 'completely balanced' to 'completely unbalanced' models. In particular, the MR family contains other known evolutionary models. The MR family is very versatile and virtually free of assumptions on the character of evolution; yet it is highly susceptible to rigorous analyses. In particular, such analyses help to uncover adaptability, quasi-stabilization and prolonged stasis as major possible causes of the imbalance. However, the MR model is functionally simple and requires only three parameters to reproduce the observed imbalance.