Estimation of ion channel kinetics from fluctuations of macroscopic currents

For single channel recordings, the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of kinetic rates and conductance is well established. A direct extrapolation of this method to macroscopic currents is computationally prohibitive: it scales as a power of the number of channels. An approximated MLE that ignored the local time correlation of the data has been shown to provide estimates of the kinetic parameters. In this article, an improved approximated MLE that takes into account the local time correlation is proposed. This method estimates the channel kinetics using both the time course and the random fluctuations of the macroscopic current generated by a homogeneous population of ion channels under white noise. It allows arbitrary kinetic models and stimulation protocols. The application of the proposed algorithm to simulated data from a simple three-state model on nonstationary conditions showed reliable estimates of all the kinetic constants, the conductance and the number of channels, and reliable values for the standard error of those estimates. Compared to the previous approximated MLE, it reduces by a factor of 10 the amount of data needed to secure a given accuracy and it can even determine the kinetic rates in macroscopic stationary conditions.     

Optimal estimation of ion-channel kinetics from macroscopic currents

Markov modeling provides an effective approach for modeling ion channel kinetics. There are several search algorithms for global fitting of macroscopic or single-channel currents across different experimental conditions. Here we present a particle swarm optimization(PSO)-based approach which, when used in combination with golden section search (GSS), can fit macroscopic voltage responses with a high degree of accuracy (errors within 1%) and reasonable amount of calculation time (less than 10 hours for 20 free parameters) on a desktop computer. We also describe a method for initial value estimation of the model parameters, which appears to favor identification of global optimum and can further reduce the computational cost. The PSO-GSS algorithm is applicable for kinetic models of arbitrary topology and size and compatible with common stimulation protocols, which provides a convenient approach for establishing kinetic models at the macroscopic level.     

Efficient maximum likelihood estimation of kinetic rate constants from macroscopic currents

A new method is described that accurately estimates kinetic constants, conductance and number of ion channels from macroscopic currents. The method uses both the time course and the strength of correlations between different time points of macroscopic currents and utilizes the property of semiseparability of covariance matrix for computationally efficient estimation of current likelihood and its gradient. The number of calculation steps scales linearly with the number of channel states as opposed to the cubic dependence in a previously described method. Together with the likelihood gradient evaluation, which is almost independent of the number of model parameters, the new approach allows evaluation of kinetic models with very complex topologies. We demonstrate applicability of the method to analysis of synaptic currents by estimating accurately rate constants of a 7-state model used to simulate GABAergic macroscopic currents.     

Global parameter optimization for cardiac potassium channel gating models.

Quantitative ion channel model evaluation requires the estimation of voltage dependent rate constants. We have tested whether a unique set of rate constants can be reliably extracted from nonstationary macroscopic voltage clamp potassium current data. For many models, the rate constants derived independently at different membrane potentials are not unique. Therefore, our approach has been to use the exponential voltage dependence predicted from reaction rate theory (Stevens, C. F. 1978. Biophys. J. 22:295-306; Eyring, H., S. H. Lin, and S. M. Lin. 1980. Basic Chemical Kinetics. Wiley and Sons, New York) to couple the rate constants derived at different membrane potentials. This constrained the solution set of rate constants to only those that also obeyed this additional set of equations, which was sufficient to obtain a unique solution. We have tested this approach with data obtained from macroscopic delayed rectifier potassium channel currents in voltage-clamped guinea pig ventricular myocyte membranes. This potassium channel has relatively simple kinetics without an inactivation process and provided a convenient system to determine a globally optimized set of voltage-dependent rate constants for a Markov kinetic model. The ability of the fitting algorithm to extract rate constants from the macroscopic current data was tested using "data" synthesized from known rate constants. The simulated data sets were analyzed with the global fitting procedure and the fitted rate constants were compared with the rate constants used to generate the data. Monte Carlo methods were used to examine the accuracy of the estimated kinetic parameters. This global fitting approach provided a useful and convenient method for reliably extracting Markov rate constants from macroscopic voltage clamp data over a broad range of membrane potentials. The limitations of the method and the dependence on initial guesses are described.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of molecular motor kinetics from staircase dwell-time sequences

Molecular motors, such as kinesin, myosin, or dynein, convert chemical energy into mechanical energy by hydrolyzing ATP. The mechanical energy is used for moving in discrete steps along the cytoskeleton and carrying a molecular load. High resolution single molecule recordings of motor steps appear as a stochastic sequence of dwells, resembling a staircase. Staircase data can also be obtained from other molecular machines such as F1 -ATPase, RNA polymerase, or topoisomerase. We developed a maximum likelihood algorithm that estimates the rate constants between different conformational states of the protein, including motor steps. We model the motor with a periodic Markov model that reflects the repetitive chemistry of the motor step. We estimated the kinetics from the idealized dwell-sequence by numerical maximization of the likelihood function for discrete-time Markov models. This approach eliminates the need for missed event correction. The algorithm can fit kinetic models of arbitrary complexity, such as uniform or alternating step chemistry, reversible or irreversible kinetics, ATP concentration and mechanical force-dependent rates, etc. The method allows global fitting across stationary and nonstationary experimental conditions, and user-defined a priori constraints on rate constants. The algorithm was tested with simulated data, and implemented in the free QuB software.     

Reverse engineering of biochemical equations from time-course data by means of genetic programming

Increased research aimed at simulating biological systems requires sophisticated parameter estimation methods. All current approaches, including genetic algorithms, need pre-existing equations to be functional. A generalized approach to predict not only parameters but also biochemical equations from only observable time-course information must be developed and a computational method to generate arbitrary equations without knowledge of biochemical reaction mechanisms must be developed. We present a technique to predict an equation using genetic programming. Our technique can search topology and numerical parameters of mathematical expression simultaneously. To improve the search ability of numeric constants, we added numeric mutation to the conventional procedure. As case studies, we predicted two equations of enzyme-catalyzed reactions regarding adenylate kinase and phosphofructokinase. Our numerical experimental results showed that our approach could obtain correct topology and parameters that were close to the originals. The mean errors between given and simulation-predicted time-courses were 1.6 x 10(-5)% and 2.0 x 10(-3)%, respectively. Our equation prediction approach can be applied to identify metabolic reactions from observable time-courses.     

Stochastic Dynamic Model for Estimation of Rate Constants and Their Variances from Noisy and Heterogeneous PET Measurements

Tissue heterogeneity, radioactive decay and measurement noise are the main error sources in compartmental modeling used to estimate the physiologic rate constants of various radiopharmaceuticals from a dynamic PET study. We introduce a new approach to this problem by modeling the tissue heterogeneity with random rate constants in compartment models. In addition, the Poisson nature of the radioactive decay is included as a Poisson random variable in the measurement equations. The estimation problem will be carried out using the maximum likelihood estimation. With this approach, we do not only get accurate mean estimates for the rate constants, but also estimates for tissue heterogeneity within the region of interest and other possibly unknown model parameters, e.g. instrument noise variance, as well. We also avoid the problem of the optimal weighting of the data related to the conventionally used weighted least-squares method. The new approach was tested with simulated time–activity curves from the conventional three compartment – three rate constants model with normally distributed rate constants and with a noise mixture of Poisson and normally distributed random variables. Our simulation results showed that this new model gave accurate estimates for the mean of the rate constants, the measurement noise parameter and also for the tissue heterogeneity, i.e. for the variance of the rate constants within the region of interest.     

Multiscale modeling of skeletal muscle properties and experimental validations in isometric conditions

In this article, we describe an approach to model the electromechanical behavior of the skeletal muscle based on the Huxley formulation. We propose a model that complies with a well established macroscopic behavior of striated muscles where force-length, force–velocity, and Mirsky–Parmley properties are taken into account. These properties are introduced at the microscopic scale and related to a tentative explanation of the phenomena. The method used integrates behavior ranging from the microscopic to the macroscopic scale, and allows the computation of the dynamics of the output force and stiffness controlled by EMG or stimulation parameters. The model can thus be used to simulate and carry out research to develop control strategies using electrical stimulation in the context of rehabilitation. Finally, through animal experiments, we estimated model parameters using a Sigma Point Kalman Filtering technique and dedicated experimental protocols in isometric conditions and demonstrated that the model can accurately simulate individual variations and thus take into account subject dependent behavior.     

A structural EM algorithm for phylogenetic inference.

A central task in the study of molecular evolution is the reconstruction of a phylogenetic tree from sequences of current-day taxa. The most established approach to tree reconstruction is maximum likelihood (ML) analysis. Unfortunately, searching for the maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree is computationally prohibitive for large data sets. In this paper, we describe a new algorithm that uses Structural Expectation Maximization (EM) for learning maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees. This algorithm is similar to the standard EM method for edge-length estimation, except that during iterations of the Structural EM algorithm the topology is improved as well as the edge length. Our algorithm performs iterations of two steps. In the E-step, we use the current tree topology and edge lengths to compute expected sufficient statistics, which summarize the data. In the M-Step, we search for a topology that maximizes the likelihood with respect to these expected sufficient statistics. We show that searching for better topologies inside the M-step can be done efficiently, as opposed to standard methods for topology search. We prove that each iteration of this procedure increases the likelihood of the topology, and thus the procedure must converge. This convergence point, however, can be a suboptimal one. To escape from such "local optima," we further enhance our basic EM procedure by incorporating moves in the flavor of simulated annealing. We evaluate these new algorithms on both synthetic and real sequence data and show that for protein sequences even our basic algorithm finds more plausible trees than existing methods for searching maximum likelihood phylogenies. Furthermore, our algorithms are dramatically faster than such methods, enabling, for the first time, phylogenetic analysis of large protein data sets in the maximum likelihood framework.     

Maximum likelihood estimation and identification directly from single-channel recordings.

We present a method for analysis of noisy sampled data from a single-channel patch clamp which bypasses restoration of an idealized quantal signal. We show that, even in the absence of a specific model, the conductance levels and mean dwell times within those levels can be estimated. Estimation of the rate constants of a hypothesized kinetic scheme is more difficult. We present examples in which the rate constants can be effectively estimated and examples in which they cannot.     

Estimating effective population size from samples of sequences: a bootstrap Monte Carlo integration method.

We would like to use maximum likelihood to estimate parameters such as the effective population size N(e) or, if we do not know mutation rates, the product 4N(e) mu of mutation rate per site and effective population size. To compute the likelihood for a sample of unrecombined nucleotide sequences taken from a random-mating population it is necessary to sum over all genealogies that could have led to the sequences, computing for each one the probability that it would have yielded the sequences, and weighting each one by its prior probability. The genealogies vary in tree topology and in branch lengths. Although the likelihood and the prior are straightforward to compute, the summation over all genealogies seems at first sight hopelessly difficult. This paper reports that it is possible to carry out a Monte Carlo integration to evaluate the likelihoods approximately. The method uses bootstrap sampling of sites to create data sets for each of which a maximum likelihood tree is estimated. The resulting trees are assumed to be sampled from a distribution whose height is proportional to the likelihood surface for the full data. That it will be so is dependent on a theorem which is not proven, but seems likely to be true if the sequences are not short. One can use the resulting estimated likelihood curve to make a maximum likelihood estimate of the parameter of interest, N(e) or of 4N(e) mu. The method requires at least 100 times the computational effort required for estimation of a phylogeny by maximum likelihood, but is practical on today's work stations. The method does not at present have any way of dealing with recombination.     

A sodium channel gating model based on single channel, macroscopic ionic, and gating currents in the squid giant axon.

Sodium channel gating behavior was modeled with Markovian models fitted to currents from the cut-open squid giant axon in the absence of divalent cations. Optimum models were selected with maximum likelihood criteria using single-channel data, then models were refined and extended by simultaneous fitting of macroscopic ionic currents, ON and OFF gating currents, and single-channel first latency densities over a wide voltage range. Best models have five closed states before channel opening, with inactivation from at least one closed state as well as the open state. Forward activation rate constants increase with depolarization, and deactivation rate constants increase with hyperpolarization. Rates of inactivation from the open or closed states are generally slower than activation or deactivation rates and show little or no voltage dependence. Channels tend to reopen several times before inactivating. Macroscopic rates of activation and inactivation result from a combination of closed, open and inactivated state transitions. At negative potentials the time to first opening dominates the macroscopic current due to slow activation rates compared with deactivation rates: channels tend to reopen rarely, and often inactivate from closed states before they reopen. At more positive potentials, the time to first opening and burst duration together produce the macroscopic current.     

Analysis of three- and four-compartment models forin vivo radioligand-neuroreceptor interaction

Currently applied three-copartment models for analyzing kinetic data derived fromin vivo positron emission tomographic (PET) studies of radioligand-neuroreceptor interactions require assumptions which may not be strictly valid. Such assumptions include very rapid kinetics for nonspecific binding and the absence of multiple specific receptors or subtypes. Computer simulations, based on an exact analytical solution of the relevant differential equations, indicate the numerical errors that can arise when the assumptions are invalid. We propose a fourcompartment model which requires fewer assumptions. A simple relationship is derived for expressing the microscopic rate constants of either the three- or four-compartment model as explicit functions of the experimentally-observed macroscopic rate constants. This could eliminate the need for time-consuming, iterative, non-linear, curve-fitting approaches and numerical integration. The usefulness of the four-compartment model is limited, however, by the sensitivity and temporal resolution of current PET imaging devices.     

Estimating single-channel kinetic parameters from idealized patch-clamp data containing missed events.

We present here a maximal likelihood algorithm for estimating single-channel kinetic parameters from idealized patch-clamp data. The algorithm takes into account missed events caused by limited time resolution of the recording system. Assuming a fixed dead time, we derive an explicit expression for the corrected transition rate matrix by generalizing the theory of Roux and Sauve (1985, Biophys. J. 48:149-158) to the case of multiple conductance levels. We use a variable metric optimizer with analytical derivatives for rapidly maximizing the likelihood. The algorithm is applicable to data containing substates and multiple identical or nonidentical channels. It allows multiple data sets obtained under different experimental conditions, e.g., concentration, voltage, and force, to be fit simultaneously. It also permits a variety of constraints on rate constants and provides standard errors for all estimates of model parameters. The algorithm has been tested extensively on a variety of kinetic models with both simulated and experimental data. It is very efficient and robust; rate constants for a multistate model can often be extracted in a processing time of approximately 1 min, largely independent of the starting values.     

Aberrant crypt foci and semiparametric modeling of correlated binary data

Summary .   Motivated by the spatial modeling of aberrant crypt foci (ACF) in colon carcinogenesis, we consider binary data with probabilities modeled as the sum of a nonparametric mean plus a latent Gaussian spatial process that accounts for short-range dependencies. The mean is modeled in a general way using regression splines. The mean function can be viewed as a fixed effect and is estimated with a penalty for regularization. With the latent process viewed as another random effect, the model becomes a generalized linear mixed model. In our motivating data set and other applications, the sample size is too large to easily accommodate maximum likelihood or restricted maximum likelihood estimation (REML), so pairwise likelihood, a special case of composite likelihood, is used instead. We develop an asymptotic theory for models that are sufficiently general to be used in a wide variety of applications, including, but not limited to, the problem that motivated this work. The splines have penalty parameters that must converge to zero asymptotically: we derive theory for this along with a data-driven method for selecting the penalty parameter, a method that is shown in simulations to improve greatly upon standard devices, such as likelihood crossvalidation. Finally, we apply the methods to the data from our experiment ACF. We discover an unexpected location for peak formation of ACF.     

Inactivation viewed through single sodium channels

Recordings of the sodium current in tissue-cultured GH3 cells show that the rate of inactivation in whole cell and averaged single channel records is voltage dependent: tau h varied e-fold/approximately 26 mV. The source of this voltage dependence was investigated by examining the voltage dependence of individual rate constants, estimated by maximum likelihood analysis of single channel records, in a five-state kinetic model. The rate constant for inactivating from the open state, rather than closing, increased with depolarization, as did the probability that an open channel inactivates. The rate constant for closing from the open state had the opposite voltage dependence. Both rate constants contributed to the mean open time, which was not very voltage dependent. Both open time and burst duration were less than tau h for voltages up to -20 mV. The slowest time constant of activation, tau m, was measured from whole cell records, by fitting a single exponential either to tail currents or to activating currents in trypsin-treated cells, in which the inactivation was abolished. tau m was a bell-shaped function of voltage and had a voltage dependence similar to tau h at voltages more positive than -35 mV, but was smaller than tau h. At potentials more negative than about -10 mV, individual channels may open and close several times before inactivating. Therefore, averaged single channel records, which correspond with macroscopic current elicited by a depolarization, are best described by a convolution of the first latency density with the autocorrelation function rather than with 1 - (channel open time distribution). The voltage dependence of inactivation from the open state, in addition to that of the activation process, is a significant factor in determining the voltage dependence of macroscopic inactivation. Although the rates of activation and inactivation overlapped greatly, independent and coupled inactivation could not be statistically distinguished for two models examined. Although rates of activation affect the observed rate of inactivation at intermediate voltages, extrapolation of our estimates of rate constants suggests that at very depolarized voltages the activation process is so fast that it is an insignificant factor in the time course of inactivation. Prediction of gating currents shows that an inherently voltage-dependent inactivation process need not produce a conspicuous component in the gating current.     

The Estimation of Rapid Rate Constants from Current-Amplitude Frequency Distributions of Single-Channel Recordings

A method is described for estimating rapid rate constants from the distributions of current amplitude observed in single-channel electrical recordings. It has the advantages over previous, similar approaches that it can accommodate both multistate kinetic models and adjustable filtering of the data using an 8-pole Bessel filter. The method is conceptually straightforward: the observed distributions of current amplitude are compared with theoretical distributions derived by combining several simplifying assumptions about the underlying stochastic process with a model of the filter and electrical noise. Parameters are estimated by approximate maximum likelihood. The method was used successfully to estimate rate constants for both a simple two-state kinetic model (the transitions between open and closed states during the rapid gating of an outward-rectifying K⁺-selective channel in the plasma membrane of Acetabularia) and a complex multistate kinetic model (the blockade of the maxi cation channel in the plasma membrane of rye roots by verapamil). For the two-state model, parameters were estimated well, provided that they were not too fast or too slow in relation to the sampling rate. In the three-state model the precision of estimates depended in a complex way on the values of all rate parameters in the model. Received: 4 October 1996/Revised: 2 September 1997     

Estimating kinetic constants from single channel data.

The process underlying the opening and closing of ionic channels in biological or artificial lipid membranes can be modeled kinetically as a time-homogeneous Markov chain. The elements of the chain are kinetic states that can be either open or closed. A maximum likelihood procedure is described for estimating the transition rates between these states from single channel data. The method has been implemented for linear kinetic schemes of fewer than six states, and is suitable for nonstationary data in which one or more independent channels are functioning simultaneously. It also provides standard errors for all estimates of rate constants and permits testing of smoothly parameterized subhypotheses of a general model. We have illustrated our approach by analysis of single channel data simulated on a computer and have described a procedure for analysis of experimental data.     

A mutation in the pore of the sodium channel alters gating.

Ion permeation and channel gating are classically considered independent processes, but site-specific mutagenesis studies in K channels suggest that residues in or near the ion-selective pore of the channel can influence activation and inactivation. We describe a mutation in the pore of the skeletal muscle Na channel that alters gating. This mutation, I-W53C (residue 402 in the mu 1 sequence), decreases the sensitivity to block by tetrodotoxin and increases the sensitivity to block by externally applied Cd2+ relative to the wild-type channel, placing this residue within the pore near the external mouth. Based on contemporary models of the structure of the channel, this residue is remote from the regions of the channel known to be involved in gating, yet this mutation abbreviates the time to peak and accelerates the decay of the macroscopic Na current. At the single-channel level we observe a shortening of the latency to first opening and a reduction in the mean open time compared with the wild-type channel. The acceleration of macroscopic current kinetics in the mutant channels can be simulated by changing only the activation and deactivation rate constants while constraining the microscopic inactivation rate constants to the values used to fit the wild-type currents. We conclude that the tryptophan at position 53 in the domain IP-loop may act as a linchpin in the pore that limits the opening transition rate. This effect could reflect an interaction of I-W53 with the activation voltage sensors or a more global gating-induced change in pore structure.     

Extinction risk of a density-dependent population estimated from a time series of population size

Environmental threats, such as habitat size reduction or environmental pollution, may not cause immediate extinction of a population but shorten the expected time to extinction. We develop a method to estimate the mean time to extinction for a density-dependent population with environmental fluctuation. We first derive a formula for a stochastic differential equation model (canonical model) of a population with logistic growth with environmental and demographic stochasticities. We then study an approximate maximum likelihood (AML) estimate of three parameters (intrinsic growth rate r, carrying capacity K, and environmental stochasticity sigma(2)(e)) from a time series of population size. The AML estimate of r has a significant bias, but by adopting the Monte Carlo method, we can remove the bias very effectively (bias-corrected estimate). We can also determine the confidence interval of the parameter based on the Monte Carlo method. If the length of the time series is moderately long (with 40-50 data points), parameter estimation with the Monte Carlo sampling bias correction has a relatively small variance. However, if the time series is short (less than or equal to 10 data points), the estimate has a large variance and is not reliable. If we know the intrinsic growth rate r, however, the estimate of K and sigma(2)(e)and the mean extinction time T are reliable even if only a short time series is available. We illustrate the method using data for a freshwater fish, Japanese crucian carp (Carassius auratus subsp.) in Lake Biwa, in which the growth rate and environmental noise of crucian carp are estimated using fishery records.