Effects‐initiated assessments are not risk assessments

True risk assessments address the probability of a future risk occurring given a certain set of circumstances. However, “effects‐initiated assessments”; or “retrospective assessments”; often are improperly included under the broad appellation of “risk assessment”; and are conducted when an apparently adverse effect is seen in some environmental component and the question of cause (i.e., etiology) is raised. Base line risk assessments at Superfund sites or for Natural Resource Damage Assessments are examples of effects‐initiated assessments. We argue here that this type of study is not a risk assessment, either by strict definition of terminology or by logical approach taken in answering the posed question (s), and should more properly be called “diagnostic ecology.”; Diagnostic ecology starts from the premise that ecological effects have occurred and exposure to a Stressor has taken place. The problem then is to pose all possible etiologies and utilize deductive logic to systematically eliminate each agent except for one as the actual cause. A risk assessment, on the other hand, employs inductive reasoning. That is, hypotheses are generated about the possible sources of a stressor and the possible outcome if exposure occurs. Both exercises require an understanding of the ecological relationships of the various components in the ecosystem, both need an understanding of die cause‐and‐effect relationships of agents, and both require a proper framing of the questions being asked. However, risk assessors should not try to fit all environmental impact assessments into a single framework, but rather should recognize that biomedical techniques are better suited for solving diagnostic riddles than are prospective risk assessment approaches.     

An Ecological Basis for Integrated Environmental Management

Historically, approaches to environmental management activities have been reactive rather than proactive. Environmental laws and regulations have been generated primarily in response to particular issues (e.g., chemical contamination), creating a piecemeal approach for managing the environment. Responsibilities for managing different resources (e.g., water, air, forests, wildlife) have been assigned to different agencies or groups within government, further fragmenting environmental management. Proactive approaches that recognize the interconnectedness of environmental components are necessary to address complex and long-term environmental management issues. This Perspective proposes an environmental management approach that is comprehensive and systematic, while still being comprehensible to decision-makers and other stakeholders. The proposed approach is based on ecology and environmental values related to decision-making. It considers interrelationships among and between living organisms (including humans) and their physical environment. The proposed approach builds on the ecological risk assessment (ERA) paradigm, including goal (or problem) identification, values identification (ecological and human) for the environment being managed, and data collection and analysis focused on management decision-making. Stakeholder involvement and active participation are essential elements. As demonstrated herein, application of the proposed framework has enabled environmental managers to achieve workable solutions and to avoid or resolve environmental conflicts at both local and regional scales. The proposed framework is demonstrably transportable across political boundaries, applicable to all environments involving natural resources, independent of any particular ideology, and applicable to environmental management activities at all scales.     

An aggregation framework to link indicators associated with multifunctional land use to the stakeholder evaluation of policy options

In the last decade efforts have been carried out by the scientific community aimed at building integrated frameworks to support the decision-making process when sustainability issues are addressed. This paper proposes a further advancement in integrated assessment procedures by setting up an operational multi-scale and transparent framework, which comprises the assessment of European regions in terms of sustainability, and the identification of the impact that policy options might have on the sustainability of these regions. The framework is designed for use in ex ante sustainability impact assessment of policy scenarios on multifunctionality of land use and integrates economic, environmental and social issues across a variety of sectors (agriculture, forestry, transport, tourism and energy). The proposed method provides a conceptual framework applicable at different scales (European, regional), and takes into account the great variability of European regions. The described methodology is based on linear additive models to weight and aggregate selected indicators to a set of land use functions identified to describe the goods and services provided by the different land uses that summarise the most relevant economic, environmental and social issues of a region. The framework is designed to allow the evaluation of impacts at an international scale (e.g. the European Union), or on selected regions.The aggregation framework can be used to evaluate the impact that policy options have on the sustainability of multifunctional land use systems with competing demands. A conceptual envelope, called the “trade-off evaluation space”, delineates all possible developments in the functions of the land. The sustainability limits identify the subset of ‘acceptable’ policy options within the trade-off evaluation space, so that the distance of each land use function from sustainability limits can be estimated and trade-offs between the different functions of the multifunctional land use system can be identified. The proposed methodology is adaptable to different contexts: if the assumption is taken that all land use functions are equally weighted the framework can be used to analyse policy cases and take decisions on policy options at the European or regional level. However, at the local-scale the framework can also be applied through a participatory approach and the distribution of weights can be rediscussed with local stakeholders. In both cases the proposed system can be used as a tool for discussion among all interested parties.     

Raw material criticality assessment as a complement to environmental life cycle assessment: Examining methods for product‐level supply risk assessment

The diversity of raw materials used in modern products, compounded by the risk of supply disruptions—due to uneven geological distribution of resources, along with socioeconomic factors like production concentration and political (in)stability of raw material producing countries—has drawn attention to the subject of raw material “criticality.” In this article, we review the state of the art regarding the integration of criticality assessment, herein termed “product‐level supply risk assessment,” as a complement to environmental life cycle assessment. We describe and compare three methods explicitly developed for this purpose—Geopolitical Supply Risk (GeoPolRisk), Economic Scarcity Potential (ESP), and the Integrated Method to Assess Resource Efficiency (ESSENZ)—based on a set of criteria including considerations of data sources, uncertainties, and other contentious methodological aspects. We test the methods on a case study of a European‐manufactured electric vehicle, and conclude with guidance for appropriate application and interpretation, along with opportunities for further methodological development. Although the GeoPolRisk, ESP, and ESSENZ methods have several limitations, they can be useful for preliminary assessments of the potential impacts of raw material supply risks on a product system (i.e., “outside‐in” impacts) alongside the impacts of a product system on the environment (i.e., “inside‐out” impacts). Care is needed to not overlook critical raw materials used in small amounts but nonetheless important to product functionality. Further methodological development could address regional and firm‐level supply risks, multiple supply‐chain stages, and material recycling, while improving coverage of supply risk characterization factors.     

Integration of Effects-Based and Stressor-Based Approaches into a Holistic Framework for Cumulative Effects Assessment in Aquatic Ecosystems

As the density of development increases, there is a growing need to address the cumulative effects of project developments on the environment. In Canada this need has been recognized in legislation whereby new project developments that require an environmental assessment under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act are required to address the cumulative effects of proposed project activities relative to the existing environmental condition. Unfortunately, existing stressor-based and effects-based approaches to environmental assessment do not adequately address cumulative effects as defined under the Act when used in isolation. However, elements from each approach can be conceptually incorporated into a holistic cumulative effects assessment framework. Key framework components include: (1) an effects-based assessment to determine existing accumulated environmental state, (2) a stressor-based assessment to predict potential impacts of new development relative to the existing environmental state, (3) post-development monitoring to assess the accuracy of impact predictions and to provide an avenue for adaptive management, and (4) decision-making frameworks to link scientific information to public opinion and managerial action. The key advantage of this framework is that it provides a more holistic, systematic approach for incorporation of ecological information into a scientific and management framework for cumulative effects assessment.     

Toward an Overall Analytical Framework for the Integrated Sustainability Assessment of the Production and Supply of Raw Materials and Primary Energy Carriers

The sustainable production and supply of raw materials (“nonenergy raw materials”) and primary energy carriers (“energy raw materials”) is a core element of many policies. The natural resource base for their production and supply, and the access thereto, are limited. Moreover, raw material supply is high on environmental and social impact agendas as well. A broad, quantitative framework that supports decision makers is recommended so as to make use of raw materials and primary energy carriers more sustainably. First, this article proposes a holistic classification of raw materials and primary energy carriers. This is an essential prerequisite for developing an integrated sustainability assessment framework (ISAF). Indeed, frequently, only a subset of raw materials and primary energy carriers are considered in terms of their source, sector, or final application. Here, 85 raw materials and 30 primary energy carriers overall are identified and grouped into seven and five subgroups, respectively. Next, this article proposes a quantitative ISAF for the production and supply of raw materials and primary energy carriers, covering all the sustainability pillars. With the goal of comprehensiveness, the proposed ISAF integrates sustainability issues that have been covered and modeled in quite different quantitative frameworks: ecosystem services; classical life cycle assessment (LCA); social LCA; resource criticality assessment; and particular international concerns (e.g., conflict minerals assessment). The resulting four areas of concerns (i.e., environmental, technical, economic, and social/societal) are grouped into ten specific sustainability concerns. Finally, these concerns are quantified through 15 indicators, enabling the quantitative sustainability assessment of the production and supply of raw materials and primary energy carriers.     

The Health Risk Assessment Approach,a Tool for Managing Risks on the Scale of a Territory: A French Experience

In France, regulatory analysis of the environment and human health potential consequences is implemented for an isolated industrial activity that requests an authorization to operate using the health risk assessment method. To date, the question is enlarged to the impact of the combination of multiple sources of pollution on the same territory. The main conclusions of the work launched by the French High Council of Public Health focus on four key points: (i) the utility of conducting such an analysis at a territory scale, (ii) the delimitation of the area, (iii) the conditions for the different stakeholders’ involvement, and (iv) the methodological specificities of the “zone health risk assessment.” The work encompassed literature reviews, seminars, and interviews of stakeholders. The utility of a Z-HRA is the central objective for the management of risk. It can no longer be conducted only for itself. The delimitation of the zone entails economic, political, environmental, and population aspects. Stakeholders become key actors in a steering and monitoring committee. Among methodological specificities, cumulative exposure comes first. Interpretation of the results should focus on risk management objectives. Finally, inclusion of Z-HRAs in flexible regulations that can be adapted to the local context is recommended.     

Comparative Risk Assessment Methods and Their Applicability to Dredged Material Management Decision-Making

This article reviews the status of comparative risk assessment within the context of environmental decision-making; evaluates its potential application as a decision-making framework for selecting alternative technologies for dredged material management; and makes recommendations for implementing such a framework. One of the most important points from this review for decision-making is that comparative risk assessment, however conducted, is an inherently subjective, value-laden process. There is some objection to this lack of total scientific objectivity (“hard version” of comparative risk assessment). However, the “hard versions” provide little help in suggesting a method that surmounts the psychology of choice in decision-making schemes. The application of comparative risk assessment in the decision-making process at dredged material management facilities will have an element of value and professional judgment in the process. The literature suggests that the best way to incorporate this subjectivity and still maintain a defensible comparative framework is to develop a method that is logically consistent and allows for uncertainty by comparing risks on the basis of more than one set of criteria, more than one set of categories, and more than one set of experts. It should incorporate a probabilistic approach where necessary and possible, based on management goals.     

An integrated environment and cost assessment method based on LCA and LCC for mechanical product manufacturing

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to provide an integrated method to identify the resource consumption, environmental emission, and economic cost for mechanical product manufacturing from economic and ecological dimensions and ultimately to provide theoretical and data support of energy conservation and emission reduction for mechanical product manufacturing.

Methods

The applied research methods include environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle cost (LCC). In life cycle environmental assessment, the inventory data are referred from Chinese Life Cycle Database and midpoint approach and EDIP2003 and CML2001 models of life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) are selected. In life cycle cost assessment, three cost categories are considered. The proposed environment and cost assessment method is based on the theory of social willingness to pay for potential environmental impacts. With the WD615 Steyr engine as a case, life cycle environment and cost are analyzed and evaluated.

Results and discussion

The case study indicates that, in different life cycle phases, the trend of cost result is generally similar to the environmental impacts; the largest proportion of cost and environmental impact happened in the two phases of “material production” and “component manufacturing” and the smallest proportion in “material transport” and “product assembly.” The environmental impact category of Chinese resource depletion potential (CRDP) accounted for the largest proportion, followed by global warming potential (GWP) and photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP), whereas the impacts of eutrophication potential (EP) and acidification potential (AP) are the smallest. The life cycle “conventional cost” accounted for almost all the highest percentage in each phase (except “material transport” phase), which is more than 80% of the total cost. The “environmental cost” and “possible cost” in each phase are relatively close, and the proportion of which is far below the “conventional cost.”

Conclusions

The proposed method enhanced the conventional LCA. The case results indicate that, in a life cycle framework, the environment and cost analysis results could support each other, and focusing on the environment and cost analysis for mechanical product manufacturing will contribute to a more comprehensive eco-efficiency assessment. Further research on the life cycle can be extended to phases of “early design,” “product use,” and “final disposal.” Other LCIA models and endpoint indicators are advocated for this environmental assessment. Environmental cost can also be further investigated, and the relevant social willingness to pay for more environmental emissions is advocated to be increased.

     

基于“双核”新框架的烟台近岸海洋环境健康综合评价

海洋生态环境健康已成为制约海洋经济发展的关键因素,科学评估近岸海洋生态环境整体的健康状况对持续利用海洋资源环境十分紧要。本研究基于新构建的以海洋生态系统自身状态为内核、以人类社会经济学指标为外核的“双核”评价框架和2008—2016年的调查资料,对烟台近岸海洋环境健康状况进行综合评估。结果表明: 烟台近岸海域的内核评级以“优”、“良”为主,总体上沉积物质量最好,水体环境质量稍差,而生物群落则是决定最终评级的核心因素;外核评价方面,以海洋产业产值和海洋保护区面积计算的外核得分为0.98。烟台近海最终的“双核”评价结果为“优/良+0.98”,这表明烟台近岸海域在保持高开发利用程度的情况下,目前海域生态环境健康状况仍然良好,但部分区域已经开始恶化,需在发展海洋产业的同时予以密切关注。“双核”框架的评价结果可为海洋资源开发和环境保护的管理决策提供指导,对实现海洋资源环境的可持续利用具有重要意义。     

Examining arts education policy development through policy frameworks

ABSTRACT

While policy formation frameworks are commonly used to understand public policy developments, scholars rarely have used them to reflect on arts education policies. Such analysis is important because it can assist both in identifying the genesis of past policies, including who the important actors are, how issues are framed and problematized, and how specific solutions are designed, as well as how to interpret unfolding policies. In this article, I review three prominent policy frameworks: Kingdon's “multiple streams framework,” Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith's “advocacy coalition framework,” and Baumgartner and Jones' “punctuated equilibrium framework.” After reviewing the frameworks, I address the following questions: (a) How would these conceptual frameworks predict arts education policy development to proceed? (b) How would these conceptual frameworks explain constituents and coalitions that affect the arts education policy sphere? (c) How would these conceptual frameworks illuminate precipitating events that drive the policy development process? I apply the frameworks to several instances of arts education policy development, including the formal designation of the arts as a core subjects under the Goals 2000: Educate America Act of 1994 (P.L. 103-227), the development of the 2014 National Core Arts Standards, and music's enumeration in the Every Student Succeeds Act of 2015. Because these three policy issues differ in important ways, they can help to illuminate the breadth of arts education policy.     

Explaining Industrial Symbiosis Emergence,Development, and Disruption: A Multilevel Analytical Framework

Industrial symbiosis (IS) is the process by which by‐products are revalorized and exchanged among distinct business entities. The literature suggests that IS can bring financial, social, and environmental benefits to firms and society. Analytical tools have been developed for uncovering IS arrangements and guidelines suggested for designing IS arrangements where they do not yet exist. Despite these suggested benefits and in spite of these tools, few planned IS arrangements have successfully materialized, with notable exceptions in East Asia. Understanding why IS networks emerge and expand or falter requires both macro‐ and micro‐level analysis. Some explanatory factors have been extensively covered in the IS literature, such as the important role of coordinating organizations. But the analysis of enterprise‐level actions and strategies as well as the conditions in the external environment that act on the enterprises and the network are not as well examined. The article outlines an analytical framework that draws upon insights from research on cleaner production, corporate social responsibility, diffusion of innovation, and the role of the state in development. The framework is consistent with the view that the evolution of IS networks is characterized by “equifinality.” Different networks may achieve IS as a result of quite different combinations of factors. No general theory of IS success or decline is offered because no such theory can be expected. IS emergence, development, and disruption is approached as a problem of sociohistorical analysis. For such phenomena, analytical frameworks provide a common explanatory starting point, but no predictive power.     

湖北梁子湖流域社会生态系统可持续发展的“安全公正空间”

近年来日益增强的人类活动正逐步威胁着地球生态系统的健康发展,给区域可持续发展及环境保护带来了巨大的挑战。如何在社会经济发展的同时维持安全的生态环境？这是可持续发展研究的一个重要问题。本研究借鉴“安全公正空间”理论框架,以长江中下游地区梁子湖流域为例,综合湖泊沉积记录、环境监测数据和社会经济数据,分析该区域内关键生态-环境过程的现状及居民社会福祉指标达成度(达成度指社会基础指标当前值相对于目标值的完成情况),构建了梁子湖流域社会生态系统可持续发展的“安全公正空间”。结果表明: 梁子湖流域内淡水利用、耕地资源、空气质量、水土保持和化学污染等指标超越了环境上限,处于“危险”状态,未来的环境管理中需重点调控;在社会福祉方面,清洁用水与卫生设施、产业创新维度的达成度相对较低;人均GDP与水土保持和空气质量呈显著负相关,体现了社会经济发展对水、土、气的负面效应。本研究借助多源环境数据,特别是湖泊沉积的长序列数据,有效再现了历史环境变化过程,揭示了流域社会生态系统管理中面临的环境及居民福祉短板,为区域可持续发展提供了重要的参考信息。     

Trends in the Development of Ecological Risk Assessment and Management Frameworks

Ecological risk assessment and management have grown from a long history of assessment and management activities aimed at improving the everyday lives of humans. The background against which ecological risk assessment and management has developed is discussed and recent trends in the development of risk assessment and management frameworks documented. Seven frameworks from five different countries are examined. All maintain an important role for science, suggest adaptive approaches to decision-making and have well-defined analytical steps. Differences in approaches toward the separation of policy and science, the preference for management over assessment, the inclusion of stakeholders, the iterative nature of the analytical cycle, the use of decision criteria and economic information suggest considerable evolution in framework design over time. Despite the changes, no consensus on the design of a framework is apparent and work remains to be done on refining an integrative framework that effectively incorporates both policy and science considerations for environmental management purposes.     

美国、加拿大环境和健康风险管理方法

对目前美国和加拿大多个部门使用的风险评价与风险管理方法进行了全面回顾和综合分析,论述各种不同方法的特征,深入探讨各种管理方法的基础、利弊、使用经验,辨识环境、人类健康和职业健康风险综合方法中应该包含的要素,阐述风险管理目标的确定方法,以期为中国的环境风险管理提供经验。     

Recent Advances in Design for Environment at Motorola

Motorola is a large electronics company that uses design for environment (DfE) t o address our customers' environmental needs. In working to integrate environmental considerations into product design, Motorola has encountered new challenges in product design, and as a result has had to develop new frameworks and employ new analytical tools. This article describes those challenges and Motorola's efforts to date. The examination of how products are designed in Motorola led to the realization that there are distinct phases in design: concept development, detail design, and prototype manufacture. In the earlier phases where the greatest flexibility for product reconfiguration exists, there is the least amount of detailed information available for use in making environmental assessments. In an effort to match the data availability to the environmental assessment needs, Motorola developed a tiered approach to DE using a matrix-based abridged life-cycle assessment (LCA) in the concept development stage, a scoring system based in part on multiattribute value theory in the detail design stage, and potentially full-scale life-cycle assessment in the prototype manufacturing stage.     

Post-conditioning hormesis creates a “subtraction to background” disease process: biological,aging, and environmental risk assessment implications

The interaction of background disease processes with environmental induced diseases has long been an issue of considerable interest and debate with respect to its impact on risk assessment. Whether and to what extent these processes should be considered independent or additive to background has been the principal focus of debate. The concept of hormesis, a biphasic dose response characterized by a low dose stimulation and a high dose inhibition, as framed within the context of post-conditioning, reveal the occurrence of a third type of “background” possibility, that of “subtraction to background”. This novel application of the hormesis concept, which is framed within the biological context of post-conditioning adaptive processes, offers considerable implications for the assessment of aging and environmental risk assessment.     

生态脆弱区贫困与生态环境的博弈分析

生态脆弱区既是生态环境破坏最典型、最强烈的区域,也是贫困问题最集中的区域。然而,实践中试图摆脱"贫困陷阱"的成功案例并不多见。其中一个重要原因是鲜有协同生态保护与扶贫的研究,尤其是忽视了不同利益主体的相互作用过程与机制。从博弈论的视角,探讨生态脆弱区不同利益主体的两组核心博弈,即政府与民众以及政府与企业的博弈。研究发现,扶贫与生态环境保护相互作用过程事实上就是协调不同利益主体的目标与利益的博弈过程,博弈结果一定程度上决定了扶贫的效果以及生态环境保护的效应。研究为深入理解贫困与生态环境相互作用的过程与机制提供一个理论分析框架,并为中国生态脆弱区可持续发展实践提供有益借鉴。     

Weight-of-Evidence Issues and Frameworks for Sediment Quality (And Other) Assessments

Weight of evidence (WOE) frameworks for integrating and interpreting multiple lines of evidence are discussed, focusing on sediment quality assessments, and introducing a series of ten papers on WOE. Approaches to WOE include individual lines of evidence (LOE) as well as combined LOE (indices, statistical summarization, logic systems, scoring systems, and best professional judgment [BPJ]). The application of WOE, based on multiple LOE, is discussed relative to the published literature. Fully implementing WOE requires consideration of six main LOE in sediment (or other assessments); these LOE generally correspond to other causality considerations including Koch's Postulates. However, the issue of sediment stability is an additional consideration, and the use of tabular decision matrices is recommended in a logic system to address LOE described by others as “analogy”, “plausibility”, or “logical and scientific sense.” Three examples of logic system WOE determinations based on the Sediment Quality Triad and using tabular decision matrices are provided. Key lessons from these examples include the: generally limited utility of sediment quality value (SQV)-based LOE; need for BPJ; importance of ecological relevance; importance of assessing background conditions; and, need for appropriately customizing study designs to suit sitespecific circumstances (rather than application of “boiler-plate” assessments). Overall, more quantitative approaches are needed that better define certainty elements of WOE in an open framework process, i.e., statistical summarization culminating in a logic system incorporating BPJ.     

The Concept of City Carbon Maps: A Case Study of Melbourne,Australia

Cities are thought to be associated with most of humanity's consumption of natural resources and impacts on the environment. Cities not only constitute major centers of economic activity, knowledge, innovation, and governance—they are also said to be linked to approximately 70% to 80% of global carbon dioxide emissions. This makes cities primary agents of change in a resource‐ and carbon‐constraint world. In order to set meaningful targets, design successful policies, and implement effective mitigation strategies, it is important that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounting for cities is accurate, comparable, comprehensive, and complete. Despite recent developments in the standardization of city GHG accounting, there is still a lack of consistent guidelines regarding out‐of‐boundary emissions, thus hampering efforts to identify mitigation priorities and responsibilities. We introduce a new conceptual framework—based on environmental input‐output analysis—that allows for a consistent and complete reconciliation of direct and indirect GHG emissions from a city. The “city carbon map” shows local, regional, national, and global origins and destinations of flows of embodied emissions. We test the carbon map concept by applying it to the greater metropolitan area of Melbourne, Australia. We discuss the results and limitations of the approach in the light of possible mitigation strategies and policies by different urban stakeholders.