Peak Waste: When Is It Likely to Occur?

Population and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) projections are used to estimate total global municipal solid waste (MSW) generation over the twenty‐first century. Some projections for global population suggest that it will peak this century. Waste generation rates per capita generally increase with affluence, although in the most affluent countries there is also a trend toward dematerialization. The confluence of these factors means that at some point in the future total global waste generation could possibly peak. To determine when peak waste might occur, we used the shared‐socioeconomic pathway scenarios (used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] studies) combined with estimates of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation rates, extrapolated from our work for the World Bank. Despite the expectation that total MSW generation in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) and high‐income countries will peak mid‐century, with current trajectories global peak waste is not expected before 2100. The peak could be moved forward to around 2075 and reduced in intensity by some 30% if a more aggressive sustainability growth scenario were followed, rather than the current business‐as‐usual scenario. Further, the magnitude of peak waste is sensitive to the intensity of waste generation; it could vary from 7.3 to 10.9 megatonnes per day under the sustainability scenario. The timing of peak waste will substantially depend on the development of cities in Sub‐Saharan Africa, where population growth rates are more than double the rest of the world.     

Linking demographic responses and life history tactics from longitudinal data in mammals

In stochastic environments, a change in a demographic parameter can influence the population growth rate directly or via a resulting impact on age structure. Stochastic elasticity of the long‐run stochastic growth rate λ_s to a demographic parameter offers a suitable way to measure the overall demographic response because it includes both the direct effect of changing the demographic parameter and its indirect effect through changes in the age structure. From 25 mammalian populations with contrasting life histories, we investigated how pace of life and population growth rate influence the demographic responses (measured as the relative contributions of the direct and indirect components of stochastic elasticity on λ_s). We found that in short‐lived species, the change in population structure resulting from an increase in yearling survival leads to an additional increase in λ_s, whereas in long‐lived species, the same change in population structure leads to a decrease. Short‐lived species thus display a boom‐bust life history strategy contrary to long‐lived species, for which the long lifespan dampens the demographic consequences of changing age structure. Irrespective of the species’ life history strategy, the change in population age structure resulting from an increase in adult survival leads to an additional increase in λ_s due to an increase of the proportion of mature individuals in the population. On the contrary, a change in population age structure resulting from an increase of reproductive performance leads to a decrease in λ_s that is due to the increase of the proportion of immature individuals in the population. Our comparative analysis of stochastic elasticity patterns in mammals shows the existence of different demographic responses to changes in age structure between short‐ and long‐lived species, which improves our understanding of population dynamics in variable environments in relation to the species‐specific pace of life.     

旅游地生态效率测度的SBM-DEA模型及实证分析

旅游地是典型的人地关系相互作用的特殊区域,旅游地的生态效率研究是其制定与实施包容性、持续性发展政策与措施的基础。采用基于时间序列、包含非期望产出的SBM-DEA模型方法,构建旅游地生态效率测度模型及评价指标体系,以黄山风景区为例,利用1981—2014年的投入产出数据,测度旅游地复合系统的生态效率,分析其演化特征和阶段,并利用Tobit回归模型对其影响因素进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)34年来,黄山风景区旅游生态效率(综合效率)不断提升,且具较大发展潜力,在分解效率中,技术效率较高,规模效率次之,规模效率是决定综合效率的关键因素;(2)旅游生态效率的演化经历了初期低效、快速成长、成熟高效、下行风险四个阶段,不同阶段效率的特征不同,影响因素也存在差异;(3)旅游生态效率完成了由规模报酬递增向递减的过渡,资源要素的投入冗余已成为现阶段阻碍生态效率的进一步提高的关键因素;(4)旅游发展水平、产业结构和技术水平对生态效率产生显著的正向影响,投资水平产生显著的负向影响,以废弃物末端治理为表征的环保规制对生态效率的提升作用并不显著。文章最后提出,在山岳型风景区发展初期,应尽可能扩大资源要素投入规模,进入成熟阶段后,则转向逐渐控制投入规模,改善技术能力和资源配置能力,摒弃过度依靠资源消耗和环境污染的粗放式发展模式,走精细化、可持续的发展道路。     

Stage,age and individual stochasticity in demography

Demography is the study of the population consequences of the fates of individuals. Individuals are differentiated on the basis of age or, in general, life cycle stages. The movement of an individual through its life cycle is a random process, and although the eventual destination (death) is certain, the pathways taken to that destination are stochastic and will differ even between identical individuals; this is individual stochasticity. A stage‐classified demographic model contains implicit age‐specific information, which can be analyzed using Markov chain methods. The living stages in the life cycles are transient states in an absorbing Markov chain; death is an absorbing state. This paper presents Markov chain methods for computing the mean and variance of the lifetime number of visits to any transient state, the mean and variance of longevity, the net reproductive rate R₀, and the cohort generation time. It presents the matrix calculus methods needed to calculate the sensitivity and elasticity of all these indices to any life history parameters. These sensitivities have many uses, including calculation of selection gradients. It is shown that the use of R₀ as a measure of fitness or an invasion exponent gives erroneous results except when R₀=λ=1. The Markov chain approach is then generalized to variable environments (deterministic environmental sequences, periodic environments, iid random environments, Markovian environments). Variable environments are analyzed using the vec‐permutation method to create a model that classifies individuals jointly by the stage and environmental condition. Throughout, examples are presented using the North Atlantic right whale (Eubaleana glacialis) and an endangered prairie plant (Lomatium bradshawii) in a stochastic fire environment.     

The Waste Footprint of French Households in 2020: A Comparison of Scenarios of Consumption Growth Using Input‐Output Analysis

This study aims at quantifying and analyzing the waste footprint of French household consumption in 2020 with respect to different scenarios of economic growth. Three models are jointly used: (1) a multiregional unilateral input‐output model extended to waste, to quantify waste generation from economic activities induced by household consumption; (2) a coefficient‐based model dedicated to quantifying postconsumer waste as a function of household consumption; and (3) the New Econometric Model of Evaluation by Sectorial Interdependency and Supply (NEMESIS), a macroeconometric model used to elaborate different scenarios of growth in household consumption in the period 2008–2020. Three scenarios consider changes primarily in terms of household consumption volume, while one scenario additionally considers changes in the composition of consumption according to the past‐30‐year trend. First, this study suggests that if the trend in changes of composition is maintained, it will lead, by 2020, to a “relative” decoupling between French household consumption and waste footprint with respect to dry recyclables, mixed wastes, and organic wastes and to an “absolute” decoupling with respect to mineral wastes. Second, this study provides a mapping of the changes in French household waste footprints from 2008 to 2020 as a function of scenarios, with indications of where these changes would actually occur in the economy (waste from economic activities or postconsumer waste) and geographically (in France or abroad). In particular, for most of the scenarios considered, changes in French household consumption from 2008 to 2020 primarily induce changes in organic and mineral waste generation abroad rather than in France.     

Putative anaerobic activity in aerated composts

It has been suggested that anaerobic microenvironments develop in aerobic composts, regardless of the aeration system used, and that anaerobic activity is responsible for odor generation and nitrogen losses. This study was designed to measure levels of microorganisms capable of anaerobic growth in two aerated composts: municipal solid waste, a relatively nutrient-rich compost, and pulp and paper-mill solid waste, which is relatively nutrient-poor. Anaerobic microorganisms were isolated from both composts at mesophilic and thermophilic temperatures. The majority of the anaerobic mesophiles were facultative anaerobes, whereas facultative, anaerobic thermophiles varied from 0 to 100%. Serially-diluted samples were spot-plated onto various media to preserve microbial consortia. Levels of aerobic and anaerobic exoenzyme production on spot-plates were similar on cell-wall, starch, and casein media. Although microbial levels on spread plates indicate that aerobes are present in much higher numbers than anaerobes (in 47 of 56 subsamples, 90% of the population were aerobes), microbial growth levels and exoenzyme production on spot-plates indicate that anaerobes may be responsible for a large portion (greater than or equal to 72%) of the metabolic activity in anaerobic microenvironments of aerobic composts.     

Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus

1.  Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity.
2.  We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo ( Macropus rufus ), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates.
3.  Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate.
4.  Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates.
5.  Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c . 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c . 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.     

The influence of larval density, food availability and habitat longevity on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

Despite long‐standing interest in the forms and mechanisms of density dependence, these are still imperfectly understood. However, in a constant environment an increase in density must reduce per capita resource availability, which in turn leads to reduced survival, fecundity and somatic growth rate. Here we report two population experiments examining the density dependent responses under controlled conditions of an important indicator species, Chironomus riparius. The first experiment was run for 35 weeks and was started at low density with replicate populations being fed three different rations. Increased ration reduced generation time and increased population growth rate (pgr) but had no effect on survival, fecundity and female body weight in the first generation. In the second generation there was a six‐fold increase in generation time, presumably due to the greatly reduced per capita resource availability as the estimated initial densities of the second generation were 300 times greater than the first. Juvenile survival to emergence, fecundity, adult body weight and pgr declined by 90%, 75%, 35% and 99%, respectively. These large between‐generation effects may have obscured the effects of the threefold variation in ration, as only survival to emergence significantly increased with ration in the second generation. These results suggest that some chironomid larvae survive a reduction in resource availability by growing more slowly. In the ephemeral habitats sometimes occupied by C. riparius, the effects of population density may depend crucially on the longevity of the environment. A second experiment was therefore performed to measure pgr from six different starting densities over an eight‐week period. The relationship between pgr and density was concave, viewed from above. At densities above 16 larvae per cm², less than 1% of the population emerged and no offspring were produced. Under the conditions of experiment 2 – an 8‐week habitat lifespan – carrying capacity was estimated as 8 larvae per cm².     

Recruitment rates exhibit high elasticity and high temporal variation in populations of a short-lived perennial herb

Empirical studies for different life histories have shown an inverse relationship between elasticity (i.e. the proportional contribution to population growth rate) and temporal variation in vital rates. It is accepted that this relationship indicates the effect of selective pressures in reducing variation in those life‐history traits with a major impact on fitness. In this paper, we sought to determine whether changes in environmental conditions affect the relationship between elasticity of vital rates and their temporal variation, and whether vital rates with simultaneously large elasticity and temporal variation might represent a characteristic life‐history strategy. We used demographic data on 13 populations of the short‐lived Hypericum cumulicola over 5–6 years, in three time‐since‐fire classes. For each population of each time‐since‐fire, we computed the mean matrix over years and its respective elasticity matrix, and the coefficients of variation in matrix entries over study years as an estimate of temporal variability. We found that mean elasticity negatively significantly correlated with temporal variation in vital rates in populations (overall eight out of 13) included in each time‐since‐fire. However, seedling recruitment exhibited both high elasticity and high temporal variation in almost all study populations. These results indicated that (1) the general relationship between elasticity and temporal variation in vital rates was not modified by environmental changes due to time‐since‐fire, and (2) high elasticity and high temporal variation in seedling recruitment in H. cumulicola is a particular trait of the species' life history. After seed survival in the soil seed bank, seedling recruitment represents the most important life‐history trait influencing H. cumulicola population growth rate (and fitness). The high temporal variability in seedling recruitment suggests that this trait is determined by environmental cues, leading to an increase in population size and subsequent replenishment of the seed bank in favorable years.     

Life history of a neotropical marsupial: Evaluating potential contributions of survival and reproduction to population growth rate

The relative effect of survival and reproductive rates to population growth rate is expected to be similar across species with similar life-histories. We employed a matrix population model and sensitivity and elasticity analysis to assess the absolute and relative importance of age-specific survival and fertility to population growth rate of Didelphis aurita (Didelphimorphia, Didelphidae) in a rural area of Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil. The results were compared to expectations for mammals that mature early and have short generation time, such as D. aurita. Prospective analysis showed that changes in pouch young and juveniles survival would have large effects on population growth rate, relative to other vital rates, being the most critical time periods in the life cycle of D. aurita, whereas the effect of fertilities were always low. These findings do not fit to the observed pattern in mammals that mature early, where reproductive parameters have the largest relative influence on population growth rate. Although reproductive rates were characterized by a relatively small influence on population growth rate, they are still relevant because of their high variability and response to potential environmental disturbances. The first application of matrix population models to a neotropical rainforest marsupial provides information on marsupial demography and life-history strategy, increasing comprehension of this unknown group.     

Using rapid assessment and demographic methods to evaluate the effects of fishing on Heterodontus portusjacksoni off far-eastern Victoria, Australia

A rapid semi-quantitative ecological risk assessment method (productivity and susceptibility analysis) indicated that, despite its low biological productivity, the Port Jackson shark Heterodontus portusjacksoni is at low risk to all fishing methods in far-eastern Victoria, Australia, under the present fishing practices, because of its low catch susceptibility. The risk to this population, however, would increase if the shark gillnet fishery operating in the region were to retain the species as a by-product. Demographic analysis indicated that the species has medium intrinsic population growth rate and potential rebound in comparison with other chondrichthyan species, juveniles have higher elasticity than mature females and both juvenile and mature females have higher elasticities than hatchlings. Because of its low biological productivity and moderate resilience to the effects of fishing, cautious management measures will be necessary to ensure the sustainable use of H. portusjacksoni if its marketing increases in the future. Information on the dynamics of a population that is valuable to provide management advice can be obtained through demographic methods, but rapid assessment methods can also provide complementary information on the effects of fishing by considering the catch susceptibility of the population to each fishing method.     

Quantifying the links between land use and population growth rate in a declining farmland bird

Land use is likely to be a key driver of population dynamics of species inhabiting anthropogenic landscapes, such as farmlands. Understanding the relationships between land use and variation in population growth rates is therefore critical for the management of many farmland species. Using 24 years of data of a declining farmland bird in an integrated population model, we examined how spatiotemporal variation in land use (defined as habitats with “Short” and “Tall” ground vegetation during the breeding season) and habitat‐specific demographic parameters relates to variation in population growth taking into account individual movements between habitats. We also evaluated contributions to population growth using transient life table response experiments which gives information on contribution of past variation of parameters and real‐time elasticities which suggests future scenarios to change growth rates. LTRE analyses revealed a clear contribution of Short habitats to the annual variation in population growth rate that was mostly due to fledgling recruitment, whereas there was no evidence for a contribution of Tall habitats. Only 18% of the variation in population growth was explained by the modeled local demography, the remaining variation being explained by apparent immigration (i.e., the residual variation). We discuss potential biological and methodological reasons for high contributions of apparent immigration in open populations. In line with LTRE analysis, real‐time elasticity analysis revealed that demographic parameters linked to Short habitats had a stronger potential to influence population growth rate than those of Tall habitats. Most particularly, an increase of the proportion of Short sites occupied by Old breeders could have a distinct positive impact on population growth. High‐quality Short habitats such as grazed pastures have been declining in southern Sweden. Converting low‐quality to high‐quality habitats could therefore change the present negative population trend of this, and other species with similar habitat requirements.     

The biofuel potential of municipal solid waste

The world in the 21st century is facing a dual crisis of increasing waste and global climate change. Substituting fossil fuels with waste biomass‐derived cellulosic ethanol is a promising strategy to simultaneously meet part of our energy needs, mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and manage municipal solid waste (MSW). However, the global potential of MSW as an energy source is as yet unquantified. Here, we report increasing trends of MSW generation, and waste biomass‐derived cellulosic ethanol potentials in relation to socio‐economic development across 173 countries, and show that globally, up to 82.9 billion litres of waste paper‐derived cellulosic ethanol can be produced worldwide, replacing 5.36% of gasoline consumption, with accompanying GHG emissions savings of between 29.2% and 86.1%.     

Sexual cannibalism and population viability

Some behaviours that typically increase fitness at the individual level may reduce population persistence, particularly in the face of environmental changes. Sexual cannibalism is an extreme mating behaviour which typically involves a male being devoured by the female immediately before, during or after copulation, and is widespread amongst predatory invertebrates. Although the individual‐level effects of sexual cannibalism are reasonably well understood, very little is known about the population‐level effects. We constructed both a mathematical model and an individual‐based model to predict how sexual cannibalism might affect population growth rate and extinction risk. We found that in the absence of any cannibalism‐derived fecundity benefit, sexual cannibalism is always detrimental to population growth rate and leads to a higher population extinction risk. Increasing the fecundity benefits of sexual cannibalism leads to a consistently higher population growth rate and likely a lower extinction risk. However, even if cannibalism‐derived fecundity benefits are large, very high rates of sexual cannibalism (>70%) can still drive the population to negative growth and potential extinction. Pre‐copulatory cannibalism was particularly damaging for population growth rates and was the main predictor of growth declining below the replacement rate. Surprisingly, post‐copulatory cannibalism had a largely positive effect on population growth rate when fecundity benefits were present. This study is the first to formally estimate the population‐level effects of sexual cannibalism. We highlight the detrimental effect sexual cannibalism may have on population viability if (1) cannibalism rates become high, and/or (2) cannibalism‐derived fecundity benefits become low. Decreased food availability could plausibly both increase the frequency of cannibalism, and reduce the fecundity benefit of cannibalism, suggesting that sexual cannibalism may increase the risk of population collapse in the face of environmental change.     

A Carbon Footprint of Textile Recycling: A Case Study in Sweden

Global population growth and rising living standards are increasing apparel consumption. Consequently, consumption of resources and generation of textile waste are increasing. According to the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, textile consumption increased by 40% between the years 2000 and 2009 in Sweden. Given that there is currently no textile recycling plant in Sweden, the aim of this article is to explore the potential environmental benefits of various textile recycling techniques and thereby direct textile waste management strategies toward more sustainable options. Three different recycling techniques for a model waste consisting of 50% cotton and 50% polyester were identified and a life cycle assessment (LCA) was made to assess the environmental performance of them. The recycling processes are: material reuse of textile waste of adequate quality; separation of cellulose from polyester using N‐methylmorpholine‐N‐oxide as a solvent; and chemical recycling of polyester. These are compared to incineration, representing conventional textile waste treatment in Sweden. The results show that incineration has the highest global warming potential and primary energy usage. The material reuse process exhibits the best performance of the studied systems, with savings of 8 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂‐eq) and 164 gigajoules (GJ) of primary energy per tonne of textile waste. Sensitivity analyses showed that results are particularly sensitive to the considered yields of the processes and to the choice of replaced products. An integration of these recycling technologies for optimal usage of their different features for treatment of 1 tonne of textile waste shows that 10 tonnes CO₂‐eq and 169 GJ of primary energy could be saved.     

A potential multivariate index of condition for small mammals

Abstract

Post‐weaning growth rates were measured for juvenile house mice (Mus domesticus) reared under four experimental treatments representing dietary conditions in cereal‐growing areas of southeastern Australia. The mice were bred in captivity from adult wild mice captured in mature dry cereal crops during summer. Juvenile mice were caged in pairs at 23°C and offered a diet of either ripening wheat heads or mature dry wheat heads, with or without access to free water. All diets were adequate for survival, but juvenile mice on a diet of ripening wheat with water available grew at 0.25 g day–1, 260% faster than those on a diet of mature wheat and deprived access to free water. Mice on a diet of ripening wheat but deprived of free water and those on a diet of mature wheat with water available grew at intermediate rates. Post‐weaning growth rates of mice in all treatment groups were higher when the young were weaned at higher body mass. The results have implications for estimates of growth, timing of sexual maturity and reproduction of mice in field populations, and indicate that prolonged access to ripening grain and/or relief from moisture stress are likely to be critical to rapid population increase during population outbreaks.     

Induction of biochemical stress markers and apoptosis in transgenic Drosophila melanogaster against complex chemical mixtures: role of reactive oxygen species

The study was aimed to investigate the effect of leachates of solid waste from a flashlight battery factory and a pigment plant on 70 kDa heat shock protein (Hsp70) expression, generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), antioxidant enzymes activities and apoptosis in Drosophila. Third instar larvae of Drosophila melanogaster transgenic for hsp70 (hsp70-lacZ) were fed on diet mixed with leachates of solid wastes (0.05-2.0%, v/v) released from two industrial plants at three different pHs (7.00, 4.93 and 2.88) for 2-48 h. A concentration- and time-dependent significant change in Hsp70 expression, ROS generation, antioxidant enzymes activities and MDA content was observed in the exposed larvae preceding the antioxidant enzymes activities. Mitochondria-mediated, caspase-dependent apoptotic cell death in the larvae exposed to 1.0 and 2.0% leachates of flashlight battery factory was concurrent with a significant regression in Hsp70 expression and a higher ROS generation. A positive correlation drawn between ROS generation and apoptotic markers and a negative correlation between apoptotic markers and Hsp70 expression in these groups indicated the important role of ROS in the leachate-induced cellular damage. Hsp70 along with antioxidant enzymes offered protection to the organisms exposed to all the tested concentrations of the leachates of pigment plant waste and 0.5% leachate of flashlight battery factory in a cooperative manner when ROS generation was less induced. Conversely, higher levels of ROS generation in the organisms treated with 1.0 and 2.0% leachate of flashlight battery factory after 24 and 48 h resulted in regression of Hsp70 expression in them leading to cell death. The study suggests that (1) leachates of flashlight battery factory waste more adversely affected the organisms in comparison to the leachates of pigment plant waste. (2) Hsp70 may be used as a biomarker of cellular damage in organisms exposed to leachates. (3) Cell based assays using D. melanogaster as an in vivo model may provide important mechanistic information about the adverse effect of xenobiotics.     

Intraspecific resource partitioning by an opportunistic strategist, inland silverside Menidia beryllina

Seasonal variation in prey consumption and food resource overlap was evident in an inland water body for mature male, mature female and immature inland silverside (Menidia beryllina). During the first growth phase marked by intensive somatic growth by immature inland silverside, few adults were present in the population (28% of total catch), thus minimizing intraspecific competition for food resources between juvenile and adult inland silverside. During the second growth phase by adults, few juvenile inland silverside were present (0% of total catch) in the population, again minimizing intraspecific competition for food resources between juvenile and adult inland silverside. A divergence in food resource overlap was observed when mature male, mature female and immature inland silverside were present in the population. These population‐level demographic responses to energy acquisition are likely necessary to maximize individual growth of mature male, mature female and immature inland silverside.     

Survivability and post‐diapause fitness in a scolytid beetle as a function of overwintering developmental stage and the implications for population dynamics

1. It has recently been suggested that expected increases in temperature might lead to an additional generation per season in bark beetles. Thus, populations would grow more rapidly. However, an additional but not fully developed generation could lead to high winter mortality in the pre‐imaginal stages. 2. Winter survivability and post‐diapause fitness as a function of the overwintering developmental stage of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus L. were studied along an altitudinal cline. Fitness was tested in terms of weight, lipid content and flight capacity. 3. Mortality was significantly lower and emergence per brood system significantly higher for fully developed adults that entered overwintering than for larvae, pupae or callow adults. 4. Post‐diapause fitness in terms of dry weight and flight capacity was significantly higher in individuals that completed development before winter, and lipid contents also showed a trend for being higher in those individuals. 5. In conclusion, in a scenario where effective temperature sums are not adequate for the complete development of an additional generation, models may overestimate population growth by neglecting increased mortality and reduced post‐diapause fitness. The results highlight the importance of considering life‐history traits and indirect effects in addition to abiotic factors such as temperature when modelling population dynamics.     

The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences

We present the first epidemiological data on the 2002 outbreak of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in European harbour seals (Phoca vitulina). The epizootic curve to date supports a mortality rate and probability of infection identical to that of the 1988 outbreak, which killed 58% of the population. Thus immunity is playing no significant role in the dynamics of the current outbreak. Because the timing of the outbreak is important in determining local mortality rates, we predict higher mortality rates on the European continent than in Great Britain or Ireland. A stochastic model is used to quantify how recurrent epizootics affect the long‐term growth, fluctuation, and persistence of the population. Recurrent PDV epizootics with the observed frequency and severity would reduce the long‐term stochastic growth rate of the harbour seal population by half, and significantly increase the risk of quasi‐extinction.