Spatial analysis of urban material stock with clustering algorithms: A Northern European case study

A large share of construction material stock (MS) accumulates in urban built environments. To attain a more sustainable use of resources, knowledge about the spatial distribution of urban MS is needed. In this article, an innovative spatial analysis approach to urban MS is proposed. Within this scope, MS indicators are defined at neighborhood level and clustered with k‐mean algorithms. The MS is estimated bottom‐up with (a) material‐intensity coefficients and (b) spatial data for three built environment components: buildings, road transportation, and pipes, using seven material categories. The city of Gothenburg, Sweden is used as a case study. Moreover, being the first case study in Northern Europe, the results are explored through various aspects (material composition, age distribution, material density), and, finally, contrasted on a per capita basis with other studies worldwide. The stock is estimated at circa 84 million metric tons. Buildings account for 73% of the stock, road transport 26%, and pipes 1%. Mineral‐binding materials take the largest share of the stock, followed by aggregates, brick, asphalt, steel, and wood. Per capita, the MS is estimated at 153 metric tons; 62 metric tons are residential, which, in an international context, is a medium estimate. Denser neighborhoods with a mix of nonresidential and residential buildings have a lower proportion of MS in roads and pipes than low‐density single‐family residential neighborhoods. Furthermore, single‐family residential neighborhoods cluster in mixed‐age classes and show the largest content of wood. Multifamily buildings cluster in three distinct age classes, and each represent a specific material composition of brick, mineral binding, and steel. Future work should focus on megacities and contrasting multiple urban areas and, methodologically, should concentrate on algorithms, MS indicators, and spatial divisions of urban stock.     

Tracking Construction Material over Space and Time: Prospective and Geo‐referenced Modeling of Building Stocks and Construction Material Flows

Construction material plays an increasingly important role in the environmental impacts of buildings. In order to investigate impacts of materials on a building level, we present a bottom‐up building stock model that uses three‐dimensional and geo‐referenced building data to determine volumetric information of material stocks in Swiss residential buildings. We used a probabilistic modeling approach to calculate future material flows for the individual buildings. We investigated six scenarios with different assumptions concerning per‐capita floor area, building stock turnover, and construction material. The Swiss building stock will undergo important structural changes by 2035. While this will lead to a reduced number in new constructions, material flows will increase. Total material inflow decreases by almost half while outflows double. In 2055, the total amount of material in‐ and outflows are almost equal, which represents an important opportunity to close construction material cycles. Total environmental impacts due to production and disposal of construction material remain relatively stable over time. The cumulated impact is slightly reduced for the wood‐based scenario. The scenario with more insulation material leads to slightly higher material‐related emissions. An increase in per‐capita floor area or material turnover will lead to a considerable increase in impacts. The new modeling approach overcomes the limitations of previous bottom‐up building models and allows for investigating building material flows and stocks in space and time. This supports the development of tailored strategies to reduce the material footprint and environmental impacts of buildings and settlements.     

Geospatial Characterization of Material Stock in the Residential Sector of a Latin‐American City

Building stock constitutes a huge repository of construction materials in a city and a potential source for replacing primary resources in the future. This article describes the application of a methodological approach for analyzing the material stock (MS) in buildings and its spatial distribution at a city‐wide scale. A young Latin‐American city, the city of Chiclayo in Peru, was analyzed by combining geographical information systems (GIS) data, census information, and data collected from different sources. Application of the methodology yielded specific indicators for the physical size of buildings (i.e., gross floor area and number of stories) and their material composition. The overall MS in buildings, in 2007, was estimated at 24.4 million tonnes (Mt), or 47 tonnes per capita. This mass is primarily composed of mineral materials (97.7%), mainly concrete (14.1 Mt), while organic materials (e.g., 0.15 Mt of wood) and metals (e.g., 0.40 Mt of steel) constitute the remaining share (2.3%). Moreover, historical census data and projections were used to evaluate the changes in the MS from 1981 to 2017; showing a 360% increase of the MS in the last 36 years. This study provides essential supporting information for urban planners, helping to provide a better understanding of the availability of resources in the city and its future potential supply for recycling as well as to develop strategies for the management of construction and demolition waste.     

Toward a low-carbon and circular building sector: Building strategies and urbanization pathways for the Netherlands

Buildings are an important part of society's environmental impacts, both in the construction and in the use phase. As the energy performance of buildings improve, construction materials become more important as a cause of environmental impact. Less attention has been given to those materials. We explore, as an alternative for conventional buildings, the use of biobased materials and circular building practices. In addition to building design, we analyze the effect of urbanization. We assess the potential to close material cycles together with the material related impact, between 2018 and 2050 in the Netherlands. Our results show a limited potential to close material cycles until 2050, as a result of slow stock turnover and growth of the building stock. At present, end-of-life recycling rates are low, further limiting circularity. Primary material demand can be lowered when shifting toward biobased or circular construction. This shift also reduces material related carbon emissions. Large-scale implementation of biobased construction, however, drastically increases land area required for wood production. Material demand differs strongly spatially and depends on the degree of urbanization. Urbanization results in higher building replacement rates, but constructed dwellings are generally small compared to scenarios with more rural developments. The approach presented in this work can be used to analyze strategies aimed at closing material cycles in the building sector and lowering buildings' embodied environmental impact, at different spatial scales.     

基于建筑容量的城市建设用地碳汇量核算方法

城市建设中的矿物质材料开发利用活动不仅导致大量碳排放,也产生了碳吸收.以往建筑矿物质材料的碳吸收过程一直没有得到重视和科学量化.本研究采用遥感影像阴影高度反演技术,提取地块的建筑容量,识别建筑类型,以此为依据确定矿物材料用量及碳含量参数,采用热重分析法测定碳化率,基于以上步骤构建城市建筑碳汇量的核算方法,并选取沈阳市蒲河新来测试这一核算方法,同时进行不确定性分析.结果表明: 1996—2016年,沈阳市蒲河新城各类型建筑产生的碳汇总量依次为:居住建筑>公共服务建筑>其他类建筑>商业金融建筑>工业建筑;各类建筑用地的碳汇容积率依次为:商业金融建筑>居住建筑>公共服务建筑>其他类建筑>工业建筑.本研究构建的基于建筑容量提取的城市尺度的建筑碳汇量核算方法,可以快速准确地估算不同类型城市建设用地无机材料产生的碳汇量.在城市自然碳汇有限条件下,利用建筑碳汇增加城市碳汇量,能够为我国城市低碳发展提供新的思路.     

Estimating Materials Stocked by Land‐Use Type in Historic Urban Buildings Using Spatio‐Temporal Analytical Tools

The construction industry is an important contributor to urban economic development and consumes large volumes of building material that are stocked in cities over long periods. Those stocked spaces store valuable materials that may be available for recovery in the future. Thus quantifying the urban building stock is important for managing construction materials across the building life cycle. This article develops a new approach to urban building material stock analysis (MSA) using land‐use heuristics. Our objective is to characterize buildings to understand materials stocked in place by: (1) developing, validating, and testing a new method for characterizing building stock by land‐use type and (2) quantifying building stock and determining material fractions. We conduct a spatial MSA to quantify materials within a 2.6‐square‐kilometer section of Philadelphia from 2004 to 2012. Data were collected for buildings classified by land‐use type from many sources to create maps of material stock and spatial material intensity. In the spatial MSA, the land‐use type that returned the largest footprint (by percentage) and greatest (number) of buildings were civic/institutional (42%; 147) and residential (23%; 275), respectively. The model was validated for total floor space and the absolute overall error (n = 46; 20%) in 2004 and (n = 47; 24%) in 2012. Typically, commercial and residential land‐use types returned the lowest overall error and weighted error. We present a promising alternative method for characterizing buildings in urban MSA that leverages multiple tools (geographical information systems [GIS], design codes, and building models) and test the method in historic Philadelphia.     

Evaluation of Modeling Approaches to Determine End‐of‐Life Flows Associated with Buildings: A Viennese Case Study on Wood and Contaminants

Dynamic material flow analysis enables the forecasting of secondary raw material potential for waste volumes in future periods, by assessing past, present, and future stocks and flows of materials in the anthroposphere. Analyses of waste streams of buildings stocks are uncertain with respect to data and model structure. Wood construction in Viennese buildings serve as a case study to compare different modeling approaches for determining end‐of‐life (EoL) wood and corresponding contaminant flows (lead, chlorine, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). A delayed input and a leaching stock modeling approach are used to determine wood stocks and flows from 1950 until 2100. Cross‐checking with independent estimates and sensitivity analyses are used to evaluate the results’ plausibility. In the situation of the given data in the present case study, the delay approach is a better choice for historical observations of EoL wood and for analyses at a substance level. It has some major drawbacks for future predictions at the goods level, though, as the durability of a large number of historical buildings with considerably higher wood content is not reflected in the model. The wood content parameter differs strongly for the building periods and has therefore the highest influence on the results. Based on this knowledge, general recommendations can be derived for analyses on waste flows of buildings at a goods and substance level.     

城市住宅建筑系统流量-存量动态模拟——以北京市为例

地面建筑物的累积与更新是城市化过程的结果与显性特征之一。城市建筑系统在不同层面上与外部环境系统进行着物质能量交换,对这种交互产生的资源压力与环境胁迫的关注,使其成为城市代谢研究领域中的热点问题。系统分析与模拟城市建筑物流量-存量的动态变化过程及其资源环境响应,对于揭示城市建筑系统代谢机理,提高城市总体规划精准性、强化资源系统韧性管理、提升废弃物处置效率等宏观战略具有重要意义。以北京市为例,基于Stella建模平台,构建了城市居民住宅建筑系统流量-存量的动态模拟模型,定量模拟了不同管理情景下钢材需求量与建筑拆除垃圾产生量的变化区间。结果表明:(1)基准情景下,北京住宅建筑新建流量前期增速较快,2005年达到峰值3024.1万m~2,而拆除流量约于2057年达到峰值,拆除面积为2073.14万m~2;城市住宅建筑存量最高值出现在2075年左右,面积为7.51亿m~2;(2)与基准情景相比,如果人均住宅建筑面积提高到45 m~2,从现在到模拟期结束(2019—2100)将增加钢铁需求量3251.65万t;而如果延长住宅建筑寿命至设计值,同期可减少钢铁需求量3022.9万t;(3)基准情景、大面积情景以及长寿命情景下,北京市城镇住宅建筑拆除垃圾峰值产生量分别为0.29亿t、0.39亿t、0.20亿t,政府管理部门应采取有针对性的应对措施,提前做出综合利用和处理处置方案。     

The Copper Balance of Cities

Material management faces a dual challenge: on the one hand satisfying large and increasing demands for goods and on the other hand accommodating wastes and emissions in sinks. Hence, the characterization of material flows and stocks is relevant for both improving resource efficiency and environmental protection. This article focuses on the urban scale, a dimension rarely investigated in past metal flow studies. We compare the copper (Cu) metabolism of two cities in different economic states, namely, Vienna (Europe) and Taipei (Asia). Substance flow analysis is used to calculate urban Cu balances in a comprehensive and transparent form. The main difference between Cu in the two cities appears to be the stock: Vienna seems close to saturation with 180 kilograms per capita (kg/cap) and a growth rate of 2% per year. In contrast, the Taipei stock of 30 kg/cap grows rapidly by 26% per year. Even though most Cu is recycled in both cities, bottom ash from municipal solid waste incineration represents an unused Cu potential accounting for 1% to 5% of annual demand. Nonpoint emissions are predominant; up to 50% of the loadings into the sewer system are from nonpoint sources. The results of this research are instrumental for the design of the Cu metabolism in each city. The outcomes serve as a base for identification and recovery of recyclables as well as for directing nonrecyclables to appropriate sinks, avoiding sensitive environmental pathways. The methodology applied is well suited for city benchmarking if sufficient data are available.     

The Growth of Urban Building Stock: Unintended Lock‐in and Embedded Environmental Effects

Building stocks constitute enduring components of urban infrastructure systems, but little research exists on their residence time or changing environmental impacts. Using Los Angeles County, California, as a case study, a framework is developed for assessing the changes of building stocks in cities (i.e., a generalizable framework for estimating the construction and deconstruction rates), the residence time of buildings and their materials, and the associated embedded environmental impacts. In Los Angeles, previous land‐use decisions prove not easily reversible, and past building stock investments may continue to constrain the energy performance of buildings. The average age of the building stock has increased steadily since 1920 and more rapidly after the post–World War II construction surge in the 1950s. Buildings will likely endure for 60 years or longer, making this infrastructure a quasi‐permanent investment. The long residence time, combined with the physical limitations on outward growth, suggest that the Los Angeles building stock is unlikely to have substantial spatial expansion in the future. The construction of buildings requires a continuous investment in material, monetary, and energetic resources, resulting in environmental impacts. The long residence time of structures implies a commitment to use and maintain the infrastructure, potentially creating barriers to an urban area's ability to improve energy efficiency. The immotility of buildings, coupled with future environmental goals, indicates that urban areas will be best positioned by instituting strategies that ensure reductions in life cycle (construction, use, and demolition) environmental impacts.     

High-resolution mapping of 33 years of material stock and population growth in Germany using Earth Observation data

Global societal material stock in buildings and infrastructure have accumulated rapidly within the last decades, along with population growth. Recently, an approach for nation-wide mapping of material stock at 10 m spatial resolution, using freely available and globally consistent Earth Observation (EO) imagery, has been introduced as an alternative to cost-intensive cadastral data or broad-scale but thematically limited nighttime light-based mapping. This study assessed the potential of EO data archives to create spatially explicit time series data of material stock dynamics and their relation to population in Germany, at a spatial resolution of 30 m. We used Landsat imagery with a change-aftereffect-trend analysis to derive yearly masks of land surface change from 1985 onward. Those served as an input to an annual reverse calculation of six material stock types and building volume-based annual gridded population, based on maps for 2018. Material stocks and population in Germany grew by 13% and 4%, respectively, showing highly variable spatial patterns. We found a minimum building stock of ca. 180 t/cap across all municipalities and growth processes characterized by sprawl. A rapid growth of stocks per capita occurred in East Germany after the reunification in 1990, with increased building activity but population decline. Possible over- or underestimations of stock growth cannot be ruled out due to methodological assumptions, requiring further research.     

Long-term Coordination of Timber Production and Consumption Using a Dynamic Material and Energy Flow Analysis

A dynamic model for wood and energy flows is used to analyze regional timber management. The model combines a sitequality-dependent forest-growth module with modules for the timber industry, timber products use, waste management, and energy supply. The model is calibrated with data of a Swiss lowland region for the period of 1900–1997. Scenarios are developed for the period until 2100 in order to discuss possible future roles of domestic timber.
Model simulations show that, with present strategies, timber overproduction will further increase in the twenty-first century because of an increase in forest site quality in the second half of the twentieth century, among other reasons. The increase in building gross floor area of the region by a factor of 5 during the twentieth century coincides with a reduction of timber use in building construction by a factor of 4.5, from 90 kg/m2 to 20 kg/m2. Increasing timber density in buildings could address overproduction; however, a strategy of timber construction could not be accomplished with domestic timber alone. A balance of production and consumption on the present level could also be achieved in a scenario in which the present building stock is gradually exchanged during the twenty-first century with buildings that exclusively use a combination of solar panels on roofs and domestic firewood and used wood as heat-energy sources. These replacement buildings would have density typical of late twentieth-century buildings, and they would need to perform on a low-energy standard of not more than 130 MJ/m2/yr.     

The weight of islands: Leveraging Grenada's material stocks to adapt to climate change

The building stock consumes large amounts of resources for maintenance and expansion which is only exacerbated by disaster events where large‐scale reconstruction must occur quickly. Recent research has shown the potential for application of material stock (MS) accounts for informing disaster risk planning. In this research, we present a methodological approach to analyze the vulnerability of the material stock in buildings to extreme weather events and sea‐level rise (SLR) due to climate change. The main island of Grenada, a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) in the Caribbean region, was used as a case study. A bottom‐up approach based on a geographic information system (GIS) is used to calculate the total MS of aggregate, timber, concrete, and steel in buildings. The total MS in buildings in 2014 was calculated to be 11.9 million tonnes (Mt), which is equivalent to 112 tonnes per capita. Material gross addition to stock (GAS) between 1993 to 2009 was 6.8 Mt and the average value over the time period was 4.0 tonnes per capita per year. In the year following Hurricane Ivan (2004), the per capita GAS for timber increased by 172%, while for other metals, GAS spiked by 103% (compared to average growth rates of 11% and 8%, respectively, between 1993 and 2009). We also ran a future “Ivan‐II” scenario and estimated a hypothetical loss of between 135 and 216 kilotonnes (kt) of timber from the building stock. The potential impact of SLR is also assessed, with an estimated 1.6 Mt of building material stock exposed under a 2‐m scenario. We argue that spatial material stock accounts have an important application in planning for resilience and provide indication of the link between natural disaster recovery and resource use patterns.     

Building Inventory and Refurbishment Scenario Database Development for Switzerland

Material usage and the related embodied environmental impact have grown in significance in the built environment. Therefore, cities and governments need to develop strategies to reduce both the consumption of resources during usage phase as well as the embodied impact of the current building stock. This article proposes a new component‐based building inventory database as a basis to develop such strategies using building stock modeling. The developed database clusters the building stock according to building typology (single‐family houses, multifamily houses, and office buildings), age, and the main construction systems of the different building components. Based on the component makeup, it lists the necessary material input and waste output for different refurbishment options for each building component. The advantages of the proposed database structure are shown based on two applications for the developed database for Switzerland. The component‐based database allows optimization of refurbishment strategies not only from an energetic perspective, but also with respect to materials, both on the input (sourcing of materials) and the output (waste streams) level. The database structure makes it possible to continuously extend the data set by adding new refurbishment options or add data such as component‐specific lifetimes, costs, or labor intensities of the refurbishment options. In combination with an aligned economic model, this would give an even more holistic view, impact, and feasibility of different refurbishment scenarios both in environmental and economic terms.     

Urban development and sustainability challenges chronicled by a century of construction material flows and stocks in Tiexi,China

Construction materials are considerable forces of global environmental impacts, but their dynamics vis‐à‐vis urban development are poorly documented, in part because their long lifespans require elusive and sometimes nonexistent decade‐long high‐resolution data. This study analyzes the construction material flow and stock trends that shaped and were shaped by the development, decline, and renewal of the Tiexi district of Shenyang, a microcosm of China's urban transformations since the early 20th century. Chronicling building‐by‐building the material flows and stock accumulations involved in the buildup of this area, we shed light on the physical resource context of its socioeconomic history. We find that 42 million tonnes of construction materials were needed to develop the Tiexi district from 1910 to 2018, and 18 million tonnes of material outflows were generated by end‐of‐life building demolition. However, over 55% of inflows and 93% of outflows occurred since 2002 during a complete redevelopment of the district. Only small portions of end‐of‐life materials could have been reused or recycled because of temporal and typological mismatches of supply and demand and technical limitations. Our analysis reveals a dramatic decrease in median building lifetimes to as low as 6 years in the early 21st century. These findings contribute to the discussion of long‐term environmental efficiency and sustainability of societal development through construction and reflect on the challenges of urban renewal processes not only in China but also in other developing and developed countries that lost (or may lose) their traditional economic base and restructure their urban forms. This article met the requirements for a Silver/Silver JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges .     

Transforming the Norwegian Dwelling Stock to Reach the 2 Degrees Celsius Climate Target

Residential buildings account for about one‐third of the final energy demand in Norway. Many cost‐effective measures for reducing heat losses in buildings are known, and their implementation may make the building sector one of the largest contributors to climate change mitigation. To determine the sectoral emission reduction potential, we model a complete transformation of the dwelling stock by 2050 by applying both renovation and reconstruction with different energy standards. We propose a new dynamic stock model with an optimization routine to identify and prioritize buildings with the highest energy saving potential. We combine material flow analysis (MFA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) techniques to extend the sectoral boundary beyond direct household emissions. Despite an expected population growth of almost 50% between 2000 and 2050, sectoral carbon emissions in that period may drop between 30% and 40% for scenarios where the stock is completely transformed by either reconstruction or renovation to the passive house standard. Due to its lower upstream impact, renovation leads to a lower sectoral carbon footprint than reconstruction. Full transformation, however, is not sufficient to achieve an emissions reduction of 50% or more, as required on average to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, because hot water generation, appliances, and lighting will dominate the sectoral footprint once the stock has been transformed. A first estimate of the additional impact of realistic energy efficiency and lifestyle changes in the nonheating part of the sector reveals a maximal total reduction potential of about 75%.     

Quality Evaluation of Steel,Aluminum, and Road Material Recycled from End‐of‐Life Urban Buildings in Japan in Terms of Total Material Requirement

In this study we introduce the concept of total material requirement (TMR) to quantify the quality of materials from end‐of‐life buildings. The TMRs for the recycling of materials (urban ore TMR [UO‐TMR]) from four types of Japanese buildings ( Japanese traditional wooden structure [ JTWS], wooden frame with walls structure [ WFS ], reinforced‐concrete structure [RCS], and steel‐based structure [SS]) have been estimated and the trade‐off between the increase in function of recycled materials such as steel made from scrap and the additional inputs of energy and materials required to create the increase in function were evaluated. Steel made from scrap, aluminum made from scrap, and road material are assumed to be recycled from steel products, aluminum products, and aggregate and cement concrete in the buildings, respectively. Case study analyses were carried out to determine the effect of recycling only aboveground materials compared to recycling both aboveground and subsurface materials. Also, the effect of varying the recycling rate of wooden demolition debris is determined. The UO‐TMRs of steel made from scrap range from 4.7 kilograms per kilogram (kg/kg) to 18.2 kg/kg. Urban tailings (unrecycled components) account for the greatest proportion of the UO‐TMR of steel made from scrap, and the next largest contributor is the recycling process. In the case of aluminum made from scrap, the UO‐TMRs range from 22 to 196 kg/kg, with the contribution of urban tailings generally dominant, and the second largest contributor being on‐site demolition and shredding. The UO‐TMRs of recycled road material range from 1.04 to 1.16 kg/kg and are similar for different recycling cases and types of buildings.     

Resource Consumption of New Urban Construction in China

The volume of China's recent additions to its urban-built environment is unprecedented. China now accounts for half of all new building area in the world. Increases in building stocks of all types have occurred during an extended period of accelerated growth of the national economy. This expansion promises to continue through 2030. As a result, the rapid conversion of land from low-density agricultural and light manufacturing to new urban zones of high density and material-intensive commercial and residential buildings has consumed enormous quantities of domestic and imported resources and has irreversibly altered the Chinese landscape. This article examines the consumption of material resources dedicated to Chinese building construction through a survey and analysis of the material intensity of three major building types. This provides a basis for outlining the emerging life-cycle issues of recent additions to the built environment and of continued construction. With this as the starting point, the field of industrial ecology can work toward formulating strategies for a circular economy that include a resource-efficient urban China.     

我国城市大气环境与周边区域二维和三维景观格局关系

城市内部的大气环境受到周边区域景观格局的剧烈影响,小尺度上大气污染状况与周边区域景观格局的关系研究对从城市建设角度减缓城市大气污染有着重要现实意义。本研究以2017年中国30个省会城市的266个大气污染监测站点的NO₂、SO₂、PM_2.5和PM₁₀年均浓度为因变量,选择监测站点周边3 km区域内的10个二维和三维景观格局指数(建筑物数量、建筑物聚集度、建筑物密度、不透水面比例、餐饮数量密度、建筑占地面积、建筑高层比、容积率、建筑面积和建筑物类型Shannon多样性指数)为自变量,利用增强回归树模型研究景观格局对4种大气污染物浓度的影响。结果表明: 4种大气污染物浓度在空间分布上总体呈现出中部和北部城市明显高于东南沿海城市和西南部城市。NO₂、SO₂、PM_2.5和PM₁₀浓度的最大影响因素均为不透水面比例,其相对影响贡献率分别为40.7%、36.3%、51.0%和51.8%。不同区域大气污染浓度最主要影响因子识别结果表明,华东和华中地区为不透水面比例;华南地区为建筑物数量和建筑物密度;华北地区是不透水面比例和建筑物类型多样性;东北地区是不透水面比例和建筑物数量;西南地区是建筑物类型多样性;西北地区是建筑物密度。各区域的主要影响因子差异是气候、地形、城市规划等因素所致。