Identifying Hendra virus diversity in pteropid bats

Hendra virus (HeV) causes a zoonotic disease with high mortality that is transmitted to humans from bats of the genus Pteropus (flying foxes) via an intermediary equine host. Factors promoting spillover from bats to horses are uncertain at this time, but plausibly encompass host and/or agent and/or environmental factors. There is a lack of HeV sequence information derived from the natural bat host, as previously sequences have only been obtained from horses or humans following spillover events. In order to obtain an insight into possible variants of HeV circulating in flying foxes, collection of urine was undertaken in multiple flying fox roosts in Queensland, Australia. HeV was found to be geographically widespread in flying foxes with a number of HeV variants circulating at the one time at multiple locations, while at times the same variant was found circulating at disparate locations. Sequence diversity within variants allowed differentiation on the basis of nucleotide changes, and hypervariable regions in the genome were identified that could be used to differentiate circulating variants. Further, during the study, HeV was isolated from the urine of flying foxes on four occasions from three different locations. The data indicates that spillover events do not correlate with particular HeV isolates, suggesting that host and/or environmental factors are the primary determinants of bat-horse spillover. Thus future spillover events are likely to occur, and there is an on-going need for effective risk management strategies for both human and animal health.     

Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk

Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175–260% (110,000–165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.     

Reproduction and nutritional stress are risk factors for Hendra virus infection in little red flying foxes (Pteropus scapulatus)

Hendra virus (HeV) is a lethal paramyxovirus which emerged in humans in 1994. Poor understanding of HeV dynamics in Pteropus spp. (flying fox or fruit bat) reservoir hosts has limited our ability to determine factors driving its emergence. We initiated a longitudinal field study of HeV in little red flying foxes (LRFF; Pteropus scapulatus) and examined individual and population risk factors for infection, to determine probable modes of intraspecific transmission. We also investigated whether seasonal changes in host behaviour, physiology and demography affect host-pathogen dynamics. Data showed that pregnant and lactating females had significantly higher risk of infection, which may explain previously observed temporal associations between HeV outbreaks and flying fox birthing periods. Age-specific seroprevalence curves generated from field data imply that HeV is transmitted horizontally via faeces, urine or saliva. Rapidly declining seroprevalence between two field seasons suggests that immunity wanes faster in LRFF than in other flying fox species, and highlights the potentially critical role of this species in interspecific viral persistence. The highest seroprevalence was observed when animals showed evidence of nutritional stress, suggesting that environmental processes that alter flying fox food sources, such as habitat loss and climate change, may increase HeV infection and transmission. These insights into the ecology of HeV in flying fox populations suggest causal links between anthropogenic environmental change and HeV emergence.     

Urban habituation, ecological connectivity and epidemic dampening: the emergence of Hendra virus from flying foxes (Pteropus spp.)

Anthropogenic environmental change is often implicated in the emergence of new zoonoses from wildlife; however, there is little mechanistic understanding of these causal links. Here, we examine the transmission dynamics of an emerging zoonotic paramyxovirus, Hendra virus (HeV), in its endemic host, Australian Pteropus bats (fruit bats or flying foxes). HeV is a biosecurity level 4 (BSL-4) pathogen, with a high case-fatality rate in humans and horses. With models parametrized from field and laboratory data, we explore a set of probable contributory mechanisms that explain the spatial and temporal pattern of HeV emergence; including urban habituation and decreased migration-two widely observed changes in flying fox ecology that result from anthropogenic transformation of bat habitat in Australia. Urban habituation increases the number of flying foxes in contact with human and domestic animal populations, and our models suggest that, in addition, decreased bat migratory behaviour could lead to a decline in population immunity, giving rise to more intense outbreaks after local viral reintroduction. Ten of the 14 known HeV outbreaks occurred near urbanized or sedentary flying fox populations, supporting these predictions. We also demonstrate that by incorporating waning maternal immunity into our models, the peak modelled prevalence coincides with the peak annual spill-over hazard for HeV. These results provide the first detailed mechanistic framework for understanding the sporadic temporal pattern of HeV emergence, and of the urban/peri-urban distribution of HeV outbreaks in horses and people.     

Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts

The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long-term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long-term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk.     

Hendra virus infection dynamics in Australian fruit bats

Hendra virus is a recently emerged zoonotic agent in Australia. Since first described in 1994, the virus has spilled from its wildlife reservoir (pteropid fruit bats, or 'flying foxes') on multiple occasions causing equine and human fatalities. We undertook a three-year longitudinal study to detect virus in the urine of free-living flying foxes (a putative route of excretion) to investigate Hendra virus infection dynamics. Pooled urine samples collected off plastic sheets placed beneath roosting flying foxes were screened for Hendra virus genome by quantitative RT-PCR, using a set of primers and probe derived from the matrix protein gene. A total of 1672 pooled urine samples from 67 sampling events was collected and tested between 1 July 2008 and 30 June 2011, with 25% of sampling events and 2.5% of urine samples yielding detections. The proportion of positive samples was statistically associated with year and location. The findings indicate that Hendra virus excretion occurs periodically rather than continuously, and in geographically disparate flying fox populations in the state of Queensland. The lack of any detection in the Northern Territory suggests prevalence may vary across the range of flying foxes in Australia. Finally, our findings suggest that flying foxes can excrete virus at any time of year, and that the apparent seasonal clustering of Hendra virus incidents in horses and associated humans (70% have occurred June to October) reflects factors other than the presence of virus. Identification of these factors will strengthen risk minimization strategies for horses and ultimately humans.     

Adequate wound care and use of bed nets as protective factors against Buruli Ulcer: results from a case control study in Cameroon

Background

Buruli ulcer is an infectious disease involving the skin, caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans. Its exact transmission mechanism remains unknown. Several arguments indicate a possible role for insects in its transmission. A previous case-control study in the Nyong valley region in central Cameroon showed an unexpected association between bed net use and protection against Buruli ulcer. We investigated whether this association persisted in a newly discovered endemic Buruli ulcer focus in Bankim, northwestern Cameroon.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a case-control study on 77 Buruli ulcer cases and 153 age-, gender- and village-matched controls. Participants were interviewed about their activities and habits. Multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis identified systematic use of a bed net (Odds-Ratio (OR) = 0.4, 95% Confidence Interval [95%CI] = [0.2–0.9], p-value (p) = 0.04), cleansing wounds with soap (OR [95%CI] = 0.1 [0.03–0.3], p<0.0001) and growing cassava (OR [95%CI] = 0.3 [0.2–0.7], p = 0.005) as independent protective factors. Independent risk factors were bathing in the Mbam River (OR [95%CI] = 6.9 [1.4–35], p = 0.02) and reporting scratch lesions after insect bites (OR [95%CI] = 2.7 [1.4–5.4], p = 0.004). The proportion of cases that could be prevented by systematic bed net use was 32%, and by adequate wound care was 34%.

Conclusions/Significance

Our study confirms that two previously identified factors, adequate wound care and bed net use, significantly decreased the risk of Buruli ulcer. These associations withstand generalization to different geographic, climatic and epidemiologic settings. Involvement of insects in the household environment, and the relationship between wound hygiene and M. ulcerans infection should now be investigated.     

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria provides substantial protection against malaria in children already protected by an insecticide-treated bednet in Burkina Faso: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in children (IPTc) is a promising new approach to the control of malaria in areas of seasonal malaria transmission but it is not known if IPTc adds to the protection provided by an insecticide-treated net (ITN).

Methods and Findings

An individually randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of seasonal IPTc was conducted in Burkina Faso in children aged 3 to 59 months who were provided with a long-lasting insecticide-treated bednet (LLIN). Three rounds of treatment with sulphadoxine pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine or placebos were given at monthly intervals during the malaria transmission season. Passive surveillance for malaria episodes was established, a cross-sectional survey was conducted at the end of the malaria transmission season, and use of ITNs was monitored during the intervention period. Incidence rates of malaria were compared using a Cox regression model and generalized linear models were fitted to examine the effect of IPTc on the prevalence of malaria infection, anaemia, and on anthropometric indicators. 3,052 children were screened and 3,014 were enrolled in the trial; 1,505 in the control arm and 1,509 in the intervention arm. Similar proportions of children in the two treatment arms were reported to sleep under an LLIN during the intervention period (93%). The incidence of malaria, defined as fever or history of fever with parasitaemia ≥5,000/µl, was 2.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.70–3.06) per child during the intervention period in the control arm versus 0.87 (95% CI 0.78–0.97) in the intervention arm, a protective efficacy (PE) of 70% (95% CI 66%–74%) (p<0.001). There was a 69% (95% CI 6%–90%) reduction in incidence of severe malaria (p = 0.04) and a 46% (95% CI 7%–69%) (p = 0.03) reduction in the incidence of all-cause hospital admissions. IPTc reduced the prevalence of malaria infection at the end of the malaria transmission season by 73% (95% CI 68%–77%) (p<0.001) and that of moderately severe anaemia by 56% (95% CI 36%–70%) (p<0.001). IPTc reduced the risks of wasting (risk ratio [RR] = 0.79; 95% CI 0.65–1.00) (p = 0.05) and of being underweight (RR = 0.84; 95% CI 0.72–0.99) (p = 0.03). Children who received IPTc were 2.8 (95% CI 2.3–3.5) (p<0.001) times more likely to vomit than children who received placebo but no drug-related serious adverse event was recorded.

Conclusions

IPT of malaria provides substantial protection against malaria in children who sleep under an ITN. There is now strong evidence to support the integration of IPTc into malaria control strategies in areas of seasonal malaria transmission.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00738946","term_id":"NCT00738946"}}NCT00738946 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Effectiveness of the AS03-adjuvanted vaccine against pandemic influenza virus A/(H1N1) 2009--a comparison of two methods; Germany, 2009/10

During the autumn wave of the pandemic influenza virus A/(H1N1) 2009 (pIV) the German population was offered an AS03-adjuvanted vaccine. The authors compared results of two methods calculating the effectiveness of the vaccine (VE). The test-negative case-control method used data from virologic surveillance including influenza-positive and negative patients. An innovative case-series methodology explored data from all nationally reported laboratory-confirmed influenza cases. The proportion of reported cases occurring in vaccinees during an assumed unprotected phase after vaccination was compared with that occurring in vaccinees during their assumed protected phase. The test-negative case-control method included 1,749 pIV cases and 2,087 influenza test-negative individuals of whom 6 (0.3%) and 36 (1.7%), respectively, were vaccinated. The case series method included data from 73,280 cases. VE in the two methods was 79% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 35–93%; P = 0.007) and 87% (95% CI = 78–92%; P<0.001) for individuals less than 14 years of age and 70% (95% CI = −45%–94%, P = 0.13) and 74% (95% CI = 64–82%; P<0.001) for individuals above the age of 14. Both methods yielded similar VE in both age groups; and VE for the younger age group seemed to be higher.     

Parent-offspring correlations in pedometer-assessed physical activity

Background

Physical activity is a major component of a healthy lifestyle in youth and adults. To identify determinants of this complex behavior is an important research objective in the process of designing interventions to promote physical activity at population level. In addition to individual determinants, there is evidence documenting familial influences on physical activity. However, the few studies that have addressed this issue with objective measures did not provide data on parent-offspring physical activity relationships throughout childhood and adolescence. The purpose of this study was to assess familial correlations in pedometer-assessed physical activity.

Methods

We measured ambulatory activity in 286 French nuclear families (283 mothers, 237 fathers, and 631 children aged 8–18 years) by pedometer recordings (Yamax Digiwalker DW 450) over a week. Correlations were computed with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for spouse pairs, siblings, mother-offspring, and father-offspring. Data were expressed as steps per day and computed both for the full recording period and separately for weekdays and weekends.

Results

The correlations were the highest between siblings (r = 0.28, 95%CI: 0.17–0.38). Parent–offspring correlations were significant in mothers (r = 0.21, 95%CI: 0.12–0.30), especially between mothers and daughters (r = 0.24, 95%CI: 0.12–0.36 vs. r = 0.18, 95%CI: 0.05–0.31 for sons), but were almost nonexistent in fathers. Correlations were generally higher on weekend days compared to weekdays. Mother-offspring correlations did not decrease with increasing age of children (r = 0.17, 95%CI: 0.00–0.34 in 8–11-year-olds, r = 0.20, 95%CI: 0.07–0.33 in 12–15-year-olds, and r = 0.25, 95%CI: 0.07–0.39 in ≥16-year-olds). Finally, between-spouse correlations were significant only during weekend days (r = 0.14, 95%CI: 0.01–0.27).

Conclusion

Ambulatory activity correlated within families, with a possible mother effect. Mother-offspring correlations remained significant through the transition from childhood to adolescence. Further studies are required to better understand the respective influences of shared activities, parental modeling and support as well as genetic factors on the familial aggregation of physical activity.     

Safety and clinical outcome of thrombolysis in ischaemic stroke using a perfusion CT mismatch between 3 and 6 hours

Objective

It may be possible to thrombolyse ischaemic stroke (IS) patients up to 6 h by using penumbral imaging. We investigated whether a perfusion CT (CTP) mismatch can help to select patients for thrombolysis up to 6 h.

Methods

A cohort of 254 thrombolysed IS patients was studied. 174 (69%) were thrombolysed at 0–3 h by using non-contrast CT (NCCT), and 80 (31%) at 3–6 h (35 at 3–4.5 h and 45 at 4.5–6 h) by using CTP mismatch criteria. Symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage (SICH), the mortality and the modified Rankin Score (mRS) were assessed at 3 months. Independent determinants of outcome in patients thrombolysed between 3 and 6 h were identified.

Results

The baseline characteristics were comparable in the two groups. There were no differences in SICH (3% v 4%, p = 0.71), any ICH (7% v 9%, p = 0.61), or mortality (16% v 9%, p = 0.15) or mRS 0–2 at 3 months (55% v 54%, p = 0.96) between patients thrombolysed at 0–3 h (NCCT only) or at 3–6 h (CTP mismatch). There were no significant differences in outcome between patients thrombolysed at 3–4.5 h or 4.5–6 h. The NIHSS score was the only independent determinant of a mRS of 0–2 at 3 months (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82–0.97, p = 0.007) in patients treated using CTP mismatch criteria beyond 3 h.

Conclusions

The use of a CTP mismatch model may help to guide thrombolysis decisions up to 6 h after IS onset.     

Hendra and Nipah viruses: pathogenesis and therapeutics

Within the past decade a number of new zoonotic paramyxoviruses emerged from flying foxes to cause serious disease outbreaks in man and livestock. Hendra virus was the cause of fatal infections of horses and man in Australia in 1994, 1999 and 2004. Nipah virus caused encephalitis in humans both in Malaysia in 1998/99, following silent spread of the virus in the pig population, and in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2004 probably as a result of direct bat to human transmission and spread within the human population. Hendra and Nipah viruses are highly pathogenic in humans with case fatality rates of 40% to 70%. Their genetic constitution, virulence and wide host range make them unique paramyxoviruses and they have been given Biosecurity Level 4 status in a new genus Henipavirus within the family Paramyxoviridae. Recent studies on the virulence, host range and cell tropisms of henipaviruses provide insights into the unique biological properties of these emerging human pathogens and suggest approaches for vaccine development and therapeutic countermeasures.     

Human herpesvirus 8 seropositivity among sexually active adults in Uganda

IntroductionSexual transmission of human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) has been implicated among homosexual men, but the evidence for sexual transmission among heterosexual individuals is controversial. We investigated the role of sexual transmission of HHV8 in a nationally representative sample in Uganda, where HHV8 infection is endemic and transmitted mostly during childhood.ResultsThe weighted prevalence of HHV8 seropositivity was 56.2%, based on 1302 seropositive individuals, and it increased significantly with age (P_trend<0.0001). In analyses adjusting for age, sex, geography, education, and HIV status, HHV8 seropositivity was positively associated with reporting two versus one marital union (OR:1.52, 95% CI: 1.17–1.97) and each unit increase in the number of children born (OR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00–1.08), and was inversely associated with ever having used a condom (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45–0.89). HHV8 seropositivity was not associated with HIV (P = 0.660) or with herpes simplex virus 2 (P = 0.732) seropositivity. Other sexual variables, including lifetime number of sexual partners or having had at least one sexually transmitted disease, and socioeconomic variables were unrelated to HHV8 seropositivity.ConclusionOur findings are compatible with the conclusion that sexual transmission of HHV8 in Uganda, if it occurs, is weak.     

HBV infection in relation to consistent condom use: a population-based study in Peru

Background

Data on hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence are limited in developing countries. There is also limited information of consistent condom use efficacy for reducing HBV transmission at the population level. The study goal was to evaluate the prevalence and factors associated with HBV infection in Peru, and the relationship between anti-HBc positivity and consistent condom use.

Methods and Findings

Data from two different surveys performed in 28 mid-sized Peruvian cities were analyzed. Participants aged 18–29 years were selected using a multistage cluster sampling. Information was collected through a validated two-part questionnaire. The first part (face-to-face) concerned demographic data, while the second part (self-administered using handheld computers) concerned sexual behavior. Hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) was tested in 7,000 blood samples. Prevalences and associations were adjusted for sample strata, primary sampling units and population weights. Anti-HBc prevalence was 5.0% (95%CI 4.1%–5.9%), with the highest prevalence among jungle cities: 16.3% (95%CI 13.8%–19.1%). In the multivariable analysis, Anti-HBc positivity was directly associated with geographic region (highlands OR = 2.05; 95%CI 1.28–3.27, and jungle OR = 4.86; 95%CI 3.05–7.74; compared to coastal region); and inversely associated with age at sexual debut (OR = 0.90; 95%CI 0.85–0.97). Consistent condom use, evaluated in about 40% of participants, was associated with reduced prevalence (OR = 0.34; 95%CI 0.15–0.79) after adjusting for gender, geographic region, education level, lifetime number of sex partners, age at sexual debut and year of survey.

Conclusion

Residence in highlands or jungle cities is associated with higher anti-HBc prevalences, whereas increasing age at sexual debut were associated with lower prevalences. Consistent condom use was associated with decreased risk of anti-HBc. Findings from this study emphasize the need of primary prevention programs (vaccination) especially in the jungle population, and imply that condom use promotion might be a potential strategy to prevent HBV infection.     

HIV incidence and risk factors for acquisition in HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda: an HIV vaccine preparedness study

Objectives

To determine the incidence of and risk factors for HIV acquisition in a cohort of HIV-uninfected partners from HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda, and to establish its suitability for HIV vaccine trials.

Methods

HIV-uninfected adults living in HIV discordant couple relationships were enrolled and followed for 2 years. Interviews, medical investigations, HIV counseling and testing, syphilis and urine pregnancy (women) tests were performed at quarterly visits. Sexual risk behaviour data were collected every 6 months.

Results

495 participants were enrolled, of whom 34 seroconverted during 786.6 person-years of observation (PYO). The overall HIV incidence rate [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 4.3 [3.1–6]; and 4.3 [2.8–6.4] and 4.4 [2.5–8] per 100 PYO in men and women respectively. Independent baseline predictors for HIV acquisition were young age [18–24 (aRR = 4.1, 95% CI 1.6–10.8) and 25–34 (aRR = 2.7, 95% CI 1.2–5.8) years]; alcohol use (aRR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.1–6); and reported genital discharge (aRR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.6–7.2) in the past year. Condom use frequency in the year preceding enrolment was predictive of a reduced risk of HIV acquisition [sometimes (aRR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2–0.8); always (aRR = 0.1, 95% CI 0.02–0.9)]. In the follow-up risk analysis, young age [18–24 (aRR = 6.2, 95% CI 2.2–17.3) and 25-34 (aRR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1–5.0) years], reported genital discharge (aRR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.1–5.5), serological syphilis (aRR 3.2, 95% CI 1.3–7.7) and the partner being ART naïve (aRR = 4.8, 95% CI 1.4–16.0) were independently associated with HIV acquisition. There were no seroconversions among participants who reported consistent condom use during the study.

Conclusions

The study has identified important risk factors for HIV acquisition among HIV discordant couples. HIV-uninfected partners in discordant couples may be a suitable population for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. However, recent confirmation that ART reduces heterosexual HIV transmission may make it unfeasible to conduct HIV prevention trials in this population.     

The role of hydrogeography and climate in the landscape epidemiology of West Nile virus in New York State from 2000 to 2010

The epidemiology and ecology of West Nile virus (WNV) have not yet been completely described. In particular, the specific roles of climate and water in the landscape in the occurrence of human WNV cases remain unknown. This study used Poisson regression to describe the relationships between WNV cases and temperature, precipitation, and the hydrogeography of the landscape in New York State from 2000 to 2010. Fully adjusted models showed that hydrogeographic area was significantly inversely associated with WNV cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.99; 95% C.I. = 0.98–0.997, p = 0.04), such that each one square kilometer increase in hydrogeographic area was associated with a 1% decrease in WNV incidence. This association was independent of both temperature, which was also associated with WNV incidence (IRR = 2.06; 95% C.I. = 1.84–2.31, p<0.001), and precipitation, which was not (IRR = 1.0; 95% C.I. = 0.99–1.01, p = 0.16). While the results are only suggestive due to the county-level aggregated data, these findings do identify a potentially important surveillance signal in the landscape epidemiology of WNV infection.     

Sex work during the 2010 FIFA World Cup: results from a three-wave cross-sectional survey

Background

In the months leading up to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, international media postulated that at least 40,000 foreign sex workers would enter South Africa, and that an increased HIV incidence would follow. To strengthen the evidence base of future HIV prevention and sexual health programmes during international sporting events, we monitored the supply and demand of female sex work in the weeks before, during and after the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted three telephonic surveys of female sex workers advertising online and in local newspapers, in the last week of May, June and July 2010. The overall response rate was 73.4% (718/978). The number of sex workers advertising online was 5.9% higher during the World Cup than before. The client turnover rate did not change significantly during (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 1.05; 95%CI: 0.90–1.23) or after (aRR = 1.06; 95%CI: 0.91–1.24) the World Cup. The fraction of non-South African sex workers declined during (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.50; 95%CI: 0.32–0.79) and after (aOR = 0.56; 95%CI: 0.37–0.86) the World Cup. Relatively more clients were foreign during the World Cup among sex workers advertising in the newspapers (aOR = 2.74; 95%CI: 1.37–5.48) but not among those advertising online (aOR = 1.06; 95%CI: 0.60–1.90). Self-reported condom use was high (99.0%) at baseline, and did not change during (aOR = 1.07; 95% CI: 0.16–7.30) or after (aOR = 1.13; 95% CI: 0.16–8.10) the Word Cup.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings do not provide evidence for mass-immigration of foreign sex workers advertising online and in local newspapers, nor a spike in sex work or risk of HIV transmission in this subpopulation of sex workers during the World Cup. Public health programmes focusing on sex work and HIV prevention during international sporting events should be based on evidence, not media-driven sensationalism that further heightens discrimination against sex workers and increases their vulnerability.     

A geographically-restricted but prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain identified in the West Midlands Region of the UK between 1995 and 2008

Background

We describe the identification of, and risk factors for, the single most prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain in the West Midlands region of the UK.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Prospective 15-locus MIRU-VNTR genotyping of all M. tuberculosis isolates in the West Midlands between 2004 and 2008 was undertaken. Two retrospective epidemiological investigations were also undertaken using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The first study of all TB patients in the West Midlands between 2004 and 2008 identified a single prevalent strain in each of the study years (total 155/3,056 (5%) isolates). This prevalent MIRU-VNTR profile (32333 2432515314 434443183) remained clustered after typing with an additional 9-loci MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping. The majority of these patients (122/155, 79%) resided in three major cities located within a 40 km radius. From the apparent geographical restriction, we have named this the “Mercian” strain. A multivariate analysis of all TB patients in the West Midlands identified that infection with a Mercian strain was significantly associated with being UK-born (OR = 9.03, 95%CI = 4.56–17.87, p<0.01), Black Caribbean (OR = 5.68, 95%CI = 2.96–10.91, p<0.01) resident in Wolverhampton (OR = 9.29, 95%CI = 5.69–15.19, p<0.01) and negatively associated with age >65 years old (OR = 0.25, 95%CI = 0.09–0.67, p<0.01). A second more detailed investigation analyzed a cohort of 82 patients resident in Wolverhampton between 2003 and 2006. A significant association with being born in the UK remained after a multivariate analysis (OR = 9.68, 95%CI = 2.00–46.78, p<0.01) and excess alcohol intake and cannabis use (OR = 6.26, 95%CI = 1.45–27.02, p = .01) were observed as social risk factors for infection.

Conclusions/Significance

The continued consistent presence of the Mercian strain suggests ongoing community transmission. Whilst significant associations have been found, there may be other common risk factors yet to be identified. Future investigations should focus on targeting the relevant risk groups and elucidating the biological factors that mediate continued transmission of this strain.