Increased risk of fragility fractures among HIV infected compared to uninfected male veterans

Background

HIV infection has been associated with an increased risk of fragility fracture. We explored whether or not this increased risk persisted in HIV infected and uninfected men when controlling for traditional fragility fracture risk factors.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Cox regression models were used to assess the association of HIV infection with the risk for incident hip, vertebral, or upper arm fracture in male Veterans enrolled in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Virtual Cohort (VACS-VC). We calculated adjusted hazard ratios comparing HIV status and controlling for demographics and other established risk factors. The sample consisted of 119,318 men, 33% of whom were HIV infected (34% aged 50 years or older at baseline, and 55% black or Hispanic). Median body mass index (BMI) was lower in HIV infected compared with uninfected men (25 vs. 28 kg/m²; p<0.0001). Unadjusted risk for fracture was higher among HIV infected compared with uninfected men [HR: 1.32 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.47)]. After adjusting for demographics, comorbid disease, smoking and alcohol abuse, HIV infection remained associated with an increased fracture risk [HR: 1.24 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.39)]. However, adjusting for BMI attenuated this association [HR: 1.10 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.25)]. The only HIV-specific factor associated with fragility fracture was current protease inhibitor use [HR: 1.41 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.70)].

Conclusions/Significance

HIV infection is associated with fragility fracture risk. This risk is attenuated by BMI.     

Reduction of femoral fractures in long-term care facilities: the Bavarian fracture prevention study

Background

Hip fractures are a major public health burden. In industrialized countries about 20% of all femoral fractures occur in care dependent persons living in nursing care and assisted living facilities. Preventive strategies for these groups are needed as the access to medical services differs from independent home dwelling older persons at risk of osteoporotic fractures. It was the objective of the study to evaluate the effect of a fall and fracture prevention program on the incidence of femoral fracture in nursing homes in Bavaria, Germany.

Methods

In a translational intervention study a fall prevention program was introduced in 256 nursing homes with 13,653 residents. The control group consisted of 893 nursing homes with 31,668 residents. The intervention consisted of staff education on fall and fracture prevention strategies, progressive strength and balance training, and on institutional advice on environmental adaptations. Incident femoral fractures served as outcome measure.

Results

In the years before the intervention risk of a femoral fracture did not differ between the intervention group (IG) and control group (CG). During the one-year intervention period femoral fracture rates were 33.6 (IG) and 41.0/1000 person years (CG), respectively. The adjusted relative risk of a femoral fracture was 0.82 (95% CI 0.72-0.93) in residents exposed to the fall and fracture prevention program compared to residents from CG.

Conclusions

The state-wide dissemination of a multi-factorial fall and fracture prevention program was able to reduce femoral fractures in residents of nursing homes.     

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome and risks of abnormal serum alanine aminotransferase in Hispanics: a population-based study

Aim

Study the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and risk factors for and association with elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) as markers of hepatic injury in a large Hispanic health disparity cohort with high rates of obesity.

Methods

Analysis of data from a prospective cross-sectional population based study. From 2004-7, we randomly recruited 2000 community participants to the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort collecting extensive socioeconomic, clinical and laboratory data. We excluded 153 subjects due to critical missing data. Pearson chi-square tests and Student''s t-tests were used for categorical and continuous variable analysis, respectively. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the risk factors for elevated ALT.

Results

The mean age of the cohort was 45 years and 67% were females. The majority of the cohort was either overweight (32.4%) or obese (50.7%). Almost half (43.7%) had MS and nearly one-third diabetes. Elevated ALT level was more prevalent in males than females. Obesity was a strong risk for abnormal ALT in both genders. Hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia and young age were risks for elevated ALT in males only, whereas increased fasting plasma glucose was associated with elevated ALT in females only.

Conclusion

We identified high prevalence of MS and markers of liver injury in this large Mexican American cohort with gender differences in prevalence and risk factors, with younger males at greatest risk.     

Esophagitis in a high H. pylori prevalence area: severe disease is rare but concomitant peptic ulcer is frequent

Background

Few data are available on the prevalence of erosive and severe esophagitis in Western countries.

Objective

To retrospectively determine the prevalence and the factors predicting erosive esophagitis and severe esophagitis in a large series of endoscopies in Spain.

Design

Retrospective observational study. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine variables predicting severe esophagitis.

Setting

Databases of 29 Spanish endoscopy units.

Patients

Patients submitted to a diagnostic endoscopy during the year 2005.

Interventions

Retrospective review of the databases.

Main Outcome Measurements

Esophagitis severity (graded according to the Los Angeles classification) and associated endoscopic findings.

Results

Esophagitis was observed in 8.7% of the 93,699 endoscopies reviewed. Severe esophagitis (LA grade C or D) accounted for 22.5% of cases of the disease and was found in 1.9% of all endoscopies. Incidences of esophagitis and those of severe esophagitis were 86.2 and 18.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year respectively. Male sex (OR 1.89) and advanced age (OR 4.2 for patients in the fourth age quartile) were the only variables associated with severe esophagitis. Associated peptic ulcer was present in 8.8% of cases.

Limitations

Retrospective study, no data on individual proton pump inhibitors use.

Conclusions

Severe esophagitis is an infrequent finding in Spain. It occurs predominantly in males and in older individuals. Peptic ulcer disease is frequently associated with erosive esophagitis.     

Population-based rates of revision of primary total hip arthroplasty: a systematic review

Background

Most research on failure leading to revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) is reported from single centers. We searched PubMed between January 2000 and August 2010 to identify population- or community-based studies evaluating ten-year revision risks. We report ten-year revision risk using the Kaplan-Meier method, stratifying by age and fixation technique.

Results

Thirteen papers met the inclusion criteria. Cemented prostheses had Kaplan-Meier estimates of revision-free implant survival of ten years ranging from 88% to 95%; uncemented prostheses had Kaplan-Meier estimates from 80% to 85%. Estimates ranged from 72% to 86% in patients less than 60 years old and from 90 to 96% in older patients.

Conclusion

Data reported from national registries suggest revision risks of 5 to 20% ten years following primary THA. Revision risks are lower in older THA recipients. Uncemented implants may have higher ten-year rates of revision, regardless of age.     

The Epidemic of Hip Fractures: Are We on the Right Track?

Background

Hip fractures are a public health problem, leading to hospitalization, long-term rehabilitation, reduced quality of life, large healthcare expenses, and a high 1-year mortality. Especially older adults are at greater risk of fractures than the general population, due to the combination of an increased fall risk and osteoporosis. The aim of this study was to determine time trends in numbers and incidence rates of hip fracture-related hospitalizations and admission duration in the older Dutch population.

Methods and Findings

Secular trend analysis of all hospitalizations in the older Dutch population (≥65 years) from 1981 throughout 2008, using the National Hospital Discharge Registry. Numbers, age-specific and age-adjusted incidence rates (per 10,000 persons) of hospital admissions and hospital days due to a hip fracture were used as outcome measures in each year of the study. Between 1981 and 2008, the absolute number of hip fractures doubled in the older Dutch population. Incidence rates of hip fracture-related hospital admissions increased with age, and were higher in women than in men. The age-adjusted incidence rate increased from 52.0 to 67.6 per 10,000 older persons. However, since 1994 the incidence rate decreased (percentage annual change −0.5%, 95% CI: −0.7; −0.3), compared with the period 1981–1993 (percentage annual change 2.3%, 95% CI: 2.0; 2.7). The total number of hospital days was reduced by a fifth, due to a reduced admission duration in all age groups. A possible limitation was that data were obtained from a linked administrative database, which did not include information on medication use or co-morbidities.

Conclusions

A trend break in the incidence rates of hip fracture-related hospitalizations was observed in the Netherlands around 1994, possibly as a first result of efforts to prevent falls and fractures. However, the true cause of the observation is unknown.     

An Osteoprotegerin Gene Polymorphism Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Hip Fracture in Japanese Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results from the IORRA Observational Cohort Study

Introduction

Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have a higher prevalence of osteoporosis and hip fracture than healthy individuals. Multiple genetic loci for osteoporotic fracture were identified in recent genome-wide association studies. The purpose of this study was to identify genetic variants associated with the occurrence of hip fracture in Japanese patients with RA.

Methods

DNA samples from 2,282 Japanese patients with RA were obtained from the DNA collection of the Institute of Rheumatology Rheumatoid Arthritis cohort (IORRA) study. Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that have been reported to be associated with fractures in recent studies were selected and genotyped. Forty hip fractures were identified with a maximum follow-up of 10 years. The genetic risk for hip fracture was examined using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model.

Results

The risk analyses revealed that patients who are homozygous for the major allele of SNP rs6993813, in the OPG locus, have a higher risk for hip fracture (hazard ratio [95% CI]  = 2.53 [1.29–4.95], P  = 0.0067). No association was found for the other SNPs.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that an OPG allele is associated with increased risk for hip fracture in Japanese patients with RA.     

Influenza-related mortality trends in Japanese and American seniors: evidence for the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren

Background

The historical Japanese influenza vaccination program targeted at schoolchildren provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the indirect benefits of vaccinating high-transmitter groups to mitigate disease burden among seniors. Here we characterize the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren based on data from Japan and the US.

Methods

We compared age-specific influenza-related excess mortality rates in Japanese seniors aged ≥65 years during the schoolchildren vaccination program (1978–1994) and after the program was discontinued (1995–2006). Indirect vaccine benefits were adjusted for demographic changes, socioeconomics and dominant influenza subtype; US mortality data were used as a control.

Results

We estimate that the schoolchildren vaccination program conferred a 36% adjusted mortality reduction among Japanese seniors (95%CI: 17–51%), corresponding to ∼1,000 senior deaths averted by vaccination annually (95%CI: 400–1,800). In contrast, influenza-related mortality did not change among US seniors, despite increasing vaccine coverage in this population.

Conclusions

The Japanese schoolchildren vaccination program was associated with substantial indirect mortality benefits in seniors.     

External Validation of the Garvan Nomograms for Predicting Absolute Fracture Risk: The Troms? Study

Background

Absolute risk estimation is a preferred approach for assessing fracture risk and treatment decision making. This study aimed to evaluate and validate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in a Norwegian cohort.

Methods

The analysis included 1637 women and 1355 aged 60+ years from the Tromsø study. All incident fragility fractures between 2001 and 2009 were registered. The predicted probabilities of non-vertebral osteoporotic and hip fractures were determined using models with and without BMD. The discrimination and calibration of the models were assessed. Reclassification analysis was used to compare the models performance.

Results

The incidence of osteoporotic and hip fracture was 31.5 and 8.6 per 1000 population in women, respectively; in men the corresponding incidence was 12.2 and 5.1. The predicted 5-year and 10-year probability of fractures was consistently higher in the fracture group than the non-fracture group for all models. The 10-year predicted probabilities of hip fracture in those with fracture was 2.8 (women) to 3.1 times (men) higher than those without fracture. There was a close agreement between predicted and observed risk in both sexes and up to the fifth quintile. Among those in the highest quintile of risk, the models over-estimated the risk of fracture. Models with BMD performed better than models with body weight in correct classification of risk in individuals with and without fracture. The overall net decrease in reclassification of the model with weight compared to the model with BMD was 10.6% (p = 0.008) in women and 17.2% (p = 0.001) in men for osteoporotic fractures, and 13.3% (p = 0.07) in women and 17.5% (p = 0.09) in men for hip fracture.

Conclusions

The Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator is valid and clinically useful in identifying individuals at high risk of fracture. The models with BMD performed better than those with body weight in fracture risk prediction.     

Can Falls Risk Prediction Tools Correctly Identify Fall-Prone Elderly Rehabilitation Inpatients? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Falls of elderly people may cause permanent disability or death. Particularly susceptible are elderly patients in rehabilitation hospitals. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify falls prediction tools available for assessing elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals.

Methods and Findings

We searched six electronic databases using comprehensive search strategies developed for each database. Estimates of sensitivity and specificity were plotted in ROC space graphs and pooled across studies. Our search identified three studies which assessed the prediction properties of falls prediction tools in a total of 754 elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. Only the STRATIFY tool was assessed in all three studies; the other identified tools (PJC-FRAT and DOWNTON) were assessed by a single study. For a STRATIFY cut-score of two, pooled sensitivity was 73% (95%CI 63 to 81%) and pooled specificity was 42% (95%CI 34 to 51%). An indirect comparison of the tools across studies indicated that the DOWNTON tool has the highest sensitivity (92%), while the PJC-FRAT offers the best balance between sensitivity and specificity (73% and 75%, respectively). All studies presented major methodological limitations.

Conclusions

We did not identify any tool which had an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity, or which were clearly better than a simple clinical judgment of risk of falling. The limited number of identified studies with major methodological limitations impairs sound conclusions on the usefulness of falls risk prediction tools in geriatric rehabilitation hospitals.     

Family history and breast cancer hormone receptor status in a Spanish cohort

Background

Breast cancer is a heterogenous disease that impacts racial/ethnic groups differently. Differences in genetic composition, lifestyles, reproductive factors, or environmental exposures may contribute to the differential presentation of breast cancer among Hispanic women.

Materials and Methods

A population-based study was conducted in the city of Santiago de Compostela, Spain. A total of 645 women diagnosed with operable invasive breast cancer between 1992 and 2005 participated in the study. Data on demographics, breast cancer risk factors, and clinico-pathological characteristics of the tumors were collected. Hormone receptor negative tumors were compared with hormone receptor postive tumors on their clinico-pathological characteristics as well as risk factor profiles.

Results

Among the 645 breast cancer patients, 78% were estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) or progesterone receptor-positive (PR+), and 22% were ER−&PR−. Women with a family history of breast cancer were more likely to have ER−&PR− tumors than women without a family history (Odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91–2.26). This association was limited to cancers diagnosed before age 50 (Odds ratio, 2.79; 95% confidence interval, 1.34–5.81).

Conclusions

An increased proportion of ER−&PR− breast cancer was observed among younger Spanish women with a family history of the disease.     

Bone related health status in adolescent cyclists

Purpose

To describe bone status and analyse bone mass in adolescent cyclists.

Methods

Male road cyclists (n = 22) who had been training for a minimum of 2 years and a maximum of 7 years with a volume of 10 h/w, were compared to age-matched controls (n = 22) involved in recreational sports activities. Subjects were divided in 2 groups based on age: adolescents under 17 yrs (cyclists, n = 11; controls, n = 13) and over 17 yrs (cyclists, n = 11; controls, n = 9). Peak oxygen uptake (VO₂max) was measured on a cycloergometer. Whole body, lumbar spine, and hip bone mineral content (BMC), density (BMD) and bone area were assessed using dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Volumetric BMD (vBMD) and bone mineral apparent density (BMAD) were also estimated.

Results

The BMC of cyclists was lower for the whole body, pelvis, femoral neck and legs; BMD for the pelvis, hip, legs and whole body and legs bone area was lower but higher in the hip area (all, P≤0.05) after adjusting by lean mass and height. The BMC of young cyclists was 10% lower in the leg and 8% higher in the hip area than young controls (P≤0.05). The BMC of cyclists over 17 yrs was 26.5%, 15.8% and 14.4% lower BMC at the pelvis, femoral neck and legs respectively while the BMD was 8.9% to 24.5% lower for the whole body, pelvis, total hip, trochanter, intertrochanter, femoral neck and legs and 17.1% lower the vBMD at the femoral neck (all P≤0.05). Grouped by age interaction was found in both pelvis and hip BMC and BMD and in femoral neck vBMD (all P≤0.05).

Conclusion

Cycling performed throughout adolescence may negatively affect bone health, then compromising the acquisition of peak bone mass.     

Effect of intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy on the risk of arterial thromboembolic events: a meta-analysis

Background

Intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) monoclonal antibodies are used in ocular neovascular diseases. A consensus has emerged that intravenous anti-VEGF can increase the risk of arterial thromboembolic events. However, the role of intravitreal anti-VEGF in arterial thromboembolism is controversial. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the effects of intravitreal anti-VEGF on the risk of arterial thromboembolic events.

Methods

Electronic databases were searched to identify relevant randomized clinical trials comparing intravitreal anti-VEGF with controls. Criteria for inclusion in our meta-analysis included a study duration of no less than 12 months, the use of a randomized control group not receiving any intravitreal active agent, and the availability of outcome data for arterial thromboembolic events, myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and vascular death. The risk ratios and 95% CIs were calculated using a fixed-effects or random-effects model, depending on the heterogeneity of the included studies.

Results

A total of 4942 patients with a variety of ocular neovascular diseases from 13 randomized controlled trials were identified and included for analysis. There was no significant difference between intravitreal anti-VEGF and control in the risk of all events, with risk ratios of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.64 to 1.19) for arterial thromboembolic events, 0.96 (95% CI, 0.55–1.68) for cerebrovascular accidents, 0.69 (95% CI 0.40–1.21) for myocardial infarctions, and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.37–1.27) for vascular death.

Conclusions

The strength evidence suggests that the intravitreal use of anti-VEGF antibodies is not associated with an increased risk of arterial thromboembolic events.     

Clinical manifestations associated with neurocysticercosis: a systematic review

Background

The clinical manifestations of neurocysticercosis (NCC) are poorly understood. This systematic review aims to estimate the frequencies of different manifestations, complications and disabilities associated with NCC.

Methods

A systematic search of the literature published from January 1, 1990, to June 1, 2008, in 24 different electronic databases and 8 languages was conducted. Meta-analyses were conducted when appropriate.

Results

A total of 1569 documents were identified, and 21 included in the analysis. Among patients seen in neurology clinics, seizures/epilepsy were the most common manifestations (78.8%, 95%CI: 65.1%–89.7%) followed by headaches (37.9%, 95%CI: 23.3%–53.7%), focal deficits (16.0%, 95%CI: 9.7%–23.6%) and signs of increased intracranial pressure (11.7%, 95%CI: 6.0%–18.9%). All other manifestations occurred in less than 10% of symptomatic NCC patients. Only four studies reported on the mortality rate of NCC.

Conclusions

NCC is a pleomorphic disease linked to a range of manifestations. Although definitions of manifestations were very rarely provided, and varied from study to study, the proportion of NCC cases with seizures/epilepsy and the proportion of headaches were consistent across studies. These estimates are only applicable to patients who are ill enough to seek care in neurology clinics and likely over estimate the frequency of manifestations among all NCC cases.     

Population-attributable risks for ischemic stroke in a community in South Brazil: a case-control study

Background

Risk factors for ischemic stroke are mostly known, but it is still unclear in most countries, what are their combined population-attributable risk percent (PAR%). In a case-control study the individual odds ratios (ORs) and the individual and combined PAR%, including risk factors not addressed in previous studies were estimated.

Methods

Cases and controls were selected from patients attending to an emergency department. Cases were patients aged with 45 years or more with the first episode of ischemic stroke, characterized by a focal neurological deficit or change in the mental status occurring during the previous 24 hours. Controls, matched to cases by age and gender, were selected from patients without neurological complaints.

Results

133 cases and 272 controls were studied. Odds ratios for ischemic stroke were: atrial fibrillation (27.3; CI 95% 7.5–99.9), left ventricular hypertrophy (20.3; CI 95% 8.8–46.4), history of hypertension (11.2; CI 95% 5.4–23.3), physical inactivity (6.6; CI 95% 3.3–13.1), low levels of HDL-cholesterol (5.0; CI 95%2.8–8.9), heavy smoking (2.8; CI 95% 1.5–5.0), carotid bruit (2.5; CI 95% 1.3–4.6), diabetes (2.4; CI 95% 1.4–4.0) and alcohol abuse (2.1; CI 95% 1.1–4.0), The combination of these risk factors accounted for 98.9% (95% CI; 96.4%–99.7%) of the PAR% for all stroke.

Conclusions

Nine risk factors, easily identified, explain almost 100% of the population attributable risk for ischemic stroke.     

Recognition of morphometric vertebral fractures by artificial neural networks: analysis from GISMO Lombardia Database

Background

It is known that bone mineral density (BMD) predicts the fracture''s risk only partially and the severity and number of vertebral fractures are predictive of subsequent osteoporotic fractures (OF). Spinal deformity index (SDI) integrates the severity and number of morphometric vertebral fractures. Nowadays, there is interest in developing algorithms that use traditional statistics for predicting OF. Some studies suggest their poor sensitivity. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) could represent an alternative. So far, no study investigated ANNs ability in predicting OF and SDI. The aim of the present study is to compare ANNs and Logistic Regression (LR) in recognising, on the basis of osteoporotic risk-factors and other clinical information, patients with SDI≥1 and SDI≥5 from those with SDI = 0.

Methodology

We compared ANNs prognostic performance with that of LR in identifying SDI≥1/SDI≥5 in 372 women with postmenopausal-osteoporosis (SDI≥1, n = 176; SDI = 0, n = 196; SDI≥5, n = 51), using 45 variables (44 clinical parameters plus BMD). ANNs were allowed to choose relevant input data automatically (TWIST-system-Semeion). Among 45 variables, 17 and 25 were selected by TWIST-system-Semeion, in SDI≥1 vs SDI = 0 (first) and SDI≥5 vs SDI = 0 (second) analysis. In the first analysis sensitivity of LR and ANNs was 35.8% and 72.5%, specificity 76.5% and 78.5% and accuracy 56.2% and 75.5%, respectively. In the second analysis, sensitivity of LR and ANNs was 37.3% and 74.8%, specificity 90.3% and 87.8%, and accuracy 63.8% and 81.3%, respectively.

Conclusions

ANNs showed a better performance in identifying both SDI≥1 and SDI≥5, with a higher sensitivity, suggesting its promising role in the development of algorithm for predicting OF.     

School absenteeism as an adjunct surveillance indicator: experience during the second wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Quebec, Canada

Background

A school absenteeism surveillance system was implemented in the province of Quebec, Canada during the second wave of the 2009 H1N1pandemic. This paper compares this surveillance approach with other available indicators.

Method

All (3432) elementary and high schools from Quebec were included. Each school was required to report through a web-based system any day where the proportion of students absent for influenza-like illness (ILI) exceeded 10% of current school enrolment.

Results

Between October 18 and December 12 2009, 35.6% of all schools met the 10% absenteeism threshold. This proportion was greater in elementary compared to high schools (40% vs 19%) and in smaller compared to larger schools (44% vs 22%). The maximum absenteeism rate was reached the first day of reporting or within the next two days in 55% and 31% of schools respectively. The first reports and subsequent peak in school absenteeism provincially preceded the peak in paediatric hospitalization by two and one weeks, respectively. Trends in school surveillance otherwise mirrored other indicators.

Conclusion

During a pandemic, school outbreak surveillance based on a 10% threshold appears insufficient to trigger timely intervention within a given affected school. However, school surveillance appears well-correlated and slightly anticipatory compared to other population indicators. As such, school absenteeism warrants further evaluation as an adjunct surveillance indicator whose overall utility will depend upon specified objectives, and other existing capacity for monitoring and response.     

A systematic review of African studies on intimate partner violence against pregnant women: prevalence and risk factors

Background

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is very high in Africa. However, information obtained from the increasing number of African studies on IPV among pregnant women has not been scientifically analyzed. This paper presents a systematic review summing up the evidence from African studies on IPV prevalence and risk factors among pregnant women.

Methods

A key-word defined search of various electronic databases, specific journals and reference lists on IPV prevalence and risk factors during pregnancy resulted in 19 peer-reviewed journal articles which matched our inclusion criteria. Quantitative articles about pregnant women from Africa published in English between 2000 and 2010 were reviewed. At least two reviewers assessed each paper for quality and content. We conducted meta-analysis of prevalence data and reported odds ratios of risk factors.

Results

The prevalence of IPV during pregnancy ranges from 2% to 57% (n = 13 studies) with meta-analysis yielding an overall prevalence of 15.23% (95% CI: 14.38 to 16.08%). After adjustment for known confounders, five studies retained significant associations between HIV and IPV during pregnancy (OR1.48–3.10). Five studies demonstrated strong evidence that a history of violence is significantly associated with IPV in pregnancy and alcohol abuse by a partner also increases a woman''s chances of being abused during pregnancy (OR 2.89–11.60). Other risk factors include risky sexual behaviours, low socioeconomic status and young age.

Conclusion

The prevalence of IPV among pregnant women in Africa is one of the highest reported globally. The major risk factors included HIV infection, history of violence and alcohol and drug use. This evidence points to the importance of further research to both better understand IPV during pregnancy and feed into interventions in reproductive health services to prevent and minimize the impact of such violence.     

Long term sequelae from childhood pneumonia; systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The risks of long term sequelae from childhood pneumonia have not been systematically assessed. The aims of this study were to: (i) estimate the risks of respiratory sequelae after pneumonia in children under five years; (ii) estimate the distribution of the different types of respiratory sequelae; and (iii) compare sequelae risk by hospitalisation status and pathogen.

Methods

We systematically reviewed published papers from 1970 to 2011. Standard global burden of disease categories (restrictive lung disease, obstructive lung disease, bronchiectasis) were labelled as major sequelae. ‘Minor’ sequelae (chronic bronchitis, asthma, other abnormal pulmonary function, other respiratory disease), and multiple impairments were also included. Thirteen papers were selected for inclusion. Synthesis was by random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression.

Results

Risk of at least one major sequelae was 5.5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 2.8–8.3%) in non hospitalised children and 13.6% [6.2–21.1%]) in hospitalised children. Adenovirus pneumonia was associated with the highest sequelae risk (54.8% [39.2–70.5%]) but children hospitalised with no pathogen isolated also had high risk (17.6% [10.9–24.3%]). The most common type of major sequela was restrictive lung disease (5.4% [2.5–10.2%]) . Potential confounders such as loss to follow up and median age at infection were not associated with sequelae risk in the final models.

Conclusions

All children with pneumonia diagnosed by a health professional should be considered at risk of long term sequelae. Evaluation of childhood pneumonia interventions should include potential impact on long term respiratory sequelae.     

Why Are Clinicians Not Embracing the Results from Pivotal Clinical Trials in Severe Sepsis? A Bayesian Analysis

Background

Five pivotal clinical trials (Intensive Insulin Therapy; Recombinant Human Activated Protein C [rhAPC]; Low-Tidal Volume; Low-Dose Steroid; Early Goal-Directed Therapy [EGDT]) demonstrated mortality reduction in patients with severe sepsis and expert guidelines have recommended them to clinical practice. Yet, the adoption of these therapies remains low among clinicians.

Objectives

We selected these five trials and asked: Question 1-What is the current probability that the new therapy is not better than the standard of care in my patient with severe sepsis? Question 2-What is the current probability of reducing the relative risk of death (RRR) of my patient with severe sepsis by meaningful clinical thresholds (RRR >15%; >20%; >25%)?

Methods

Bayesian methodologies were applied to this study. Odds ratio (OR) was considered for Question 1, and RRR was used for Question 2. We constructed prior distributions (enthusiastic; mild, moderate, and severe skeptic) based on various effective sample sizes of other relevant clinical trials (unfavorable evidence). Posterior distributions were calculated by combining the prior distributions and the data from pivotal trials (favorable evidence).

Main Findings

Answer 1-The analysis based on mild skeptic prior shows beneficial results with the Intensive Insulin, rhAPC, and Low-Tidal Volume trials, but not with the Low-Dose Steroid and EGDT trials. All trials'' results become unacceptable by the analyses using moderate or severe skeptic priors. Answer 2-If we aim for a RRR>15%, the mild skeptic analysis shows that the current probability of reducing death by this clinical threshold is 88% for the Intensive Insulin, 62–65% for the Low-Tidal Volume, rhAPC, EGDT trials, and 17% for the Low-Dose Steroid trial. The moderate and severe skeptic analyses show no clinically meaningful reduction in the risk of death for all trials. If we aim for a RRR >20% or >25%, all probabilities of benefits become lower independent of the degree of skepticism.

Conclusions

Our clinical threshold analysis offers a new bedside tool to be directly applied to the care of patients with severe sepsis. Our results demonstrate that the strength of evidence (statistical and clinical) is weak for all trials, particularly for the Low-Dose Steroid and EGDT trials. It is essential to replicate the results of each of these five clinical trials in confirmatory studies if we want to provide patient care based on scientifically sound evidence.