Applying voting rules to panel-based decision making in LCA

Background, aim, and scope  Cross-category weighting is one possible way to facilitate internal decision making when dealing with ambiguous impact assessment results, with simple additive weighting being a commonly used method. Yet, the question as to whether the methods applied today can, in fact, identify the most “environmentally friendly” alternative from a group perspective remains unanswered. The aim of this paper is to propose a new method for group decision making that ensures the effective identification of the most preferable alternative. Materials and methods  Common approaches to deduce a single set of weighting factors for application in a group decision situation (e.g., arithmetic mean, consensus) are discussed based on simple mathematics, empirical data, and thought experiments. After proposing an extended definition for “effectiveness” in group decision making, the paper recommends the use of social choice theory whose main focus is to identify the most preferable alternative based on individuals’ rankings of alternatives. The procedure is further supplemented by a Monte Carlo analysis to facilitate the assessment of the result’s robustness. Results  The general feasibility of the method is demonstrated. It generates a complete ranking of alternatives, which does not contain cardinal single scores. In terms of effectiveness, the mathematical structure of the procedure ensures the eligibility for compromise of the group decision proposal. The sensitivity analysis supports the decision makers in understanding the robustness of the proposed group ranking. Discussion  The method is based upon an extended definition of effectiveness which acknowledges the eligibility for compromise as the core requirement in group decision contexts. It is shown that multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) methods in use in life cycle assessment (LCA) today do not necessarily meet this requirement because of their mathematical structure. Further research should focus on empirical proof that the generated group results are indeed more eligible for compromise than results generated by current methods that utilize an averaged group weighting set. This is closely related to the question considering under which mathematical constraints it is even possible to generate an essentially different result. Conclusions  The paper describes a new multi-attribute group decision support system (MGDSS) for the identification of the most preferable alternative(s) for use in panel-based LCA studies. The main novelty is that it refrains from deducing a single set of weighting factors which is supposed to represent the panel as a whole. Instead, it applies voting rules that stem from social choice theory. Because of its mathematical structure, the procedure is deemed superior to common approaches in terms of its effectiveness. Recommendations and perspectives  The described method may be recommended for use in internal, panel-based LCA studies. In addition, the basic approach of the method—the combination of MADM methods with social choice theory—can be recommended for use in all those situations where multi-attribute decisions are to be made in a group context.     

Optimal foraging for multiple nutrients in an unpredictable environment

Foraging theory has typically been concerned with the acquisition of a single resource even though organisms from mammals to protozoa are capable of balancing their requirements for multiple resources. Existing theory concerning multiple nutrients from multiple foods does not predict the sequence of food selection. We constructed an optimisation model of the simplest case of two foods containing differing amounts of two nutrients. We begin with the well-supported assumption that reproductive value declines with the distance from target nutrient intake. We show that nutrient space divides into two distinct areas where the animal should exclusively consume one food or the other. The organism thus initially concentrates on one food type until the border between the areas is reached and then moves as closely as possible along the border to approach the target. This strategy is commonly observed in a range of organisms, suggesting that the assumed fitness function is common.     

Coping with uncertainty: breeding adjustments to an unpredictable environment in an opportunistic raptor

No environment is truly constant in time. As a result, animals have evolved multiple adjustments to cope with such fluctuations. However, the allocation of effort to costly activities that imply long-term commitments, such as breeding, may be extremely challenging when future resources change constantly and unpredictably, a context that has received little investigation. To fill this gap, we studied the breeding response by a wetland-dependent raptor, the black kite Milvus migrans, to within and between-years fluctuations in resource availability (inundation levels). The breeding performance of the population was decomposed into reproductive components expressed in a sequence of successive tasks along the breeding cycle (e.g. timing of laying, clutch size, hatching success, brood reduction). Variation in each component was related to resource levels observed at different key dates of the season in order to test whether and when population-level reproduction was adjusted to available resources. Along a 22-year time-series, inundation levels fluctuated unpredictably within and among years, and mostly affected the later components of kites' reproduction, such as hatching success and the incidence of brood reduction, which were the main determinants of the population yearly breeding output. Results were consistent with multiple adjustments to cope with uncertainty. As the season progressed and resources became easier to assess, a bet-hedging waiting strategy based on a conservatively small, invariant and asynchronous clutch gave way to real-time resource-tracking mechanisms mediated by progressive adjustments to current prey availability, so that population-level breeding rates were determined and tuned to resources rather late in the season. Such adjustments were the likely outcome of the interaction between parental tactics and environmental constraints. Behavioural flexibility, such as dietary opportunism, probably promoted further resistance to resource oscillations. Given that all ecosystems show some degree of unpredictability, resource-tracking adjustments, such as the ones depicted here, are likely to be commonplace in most communities.     

The organization of a honeyeater community in an unpredictable environment

The honeyeater community of an open-layered forest was studied in the New England National Park over a 2.5 year period. Various aspects of honeyeater behaviour (aggression, social and foraging) were examined during transects and by use of time-budgets. Time-budgets were used to estimate the daily energy requirements for each species. Since nectar availability in the study area was variable, the energy produced per day by the nectar sources was occasionally insufficient to meet the daily energy demands of the honeyeater community. No strong spatial partitioning of the nectar resources by the birds was found. Use of the resources appeared to be based primarily on dominance interactions (interspecific aggression), with the larger species tending to dominate the smaller ones. Smaller species survive in the area because of their behavioural attributes and greater foraging efficiency which enables them to use the sparse supply of nectar on poor days. Temporal gradients in nectar richness may be just as important as spatial gradients in permitting the coexistence of species which use the same resource in the same habitat. Most of the results from this study fail to support the predictions made elsewhere concerning the organization of communities in unpredictable environments.     

Emergence and dynamics of cyclopoid copepods in an unpredictable environment

SUMMARY. 1. We studied species composition, abundance and population dynamics of cyclopoid copepods emerging from dormancy from the sediments of a temporary pond in South Carolina in 1985, 1988 and 1989. During a drought in 1988–89, the maximum hydroperiod was 19 days; in 1985 and late 1989-early 1990, the hydroperiods were 57 and 118 days. We also report on species present in 1984 and 1987, two years that had longer hydroperiods, and on abundance of cyclopoids in 1984. 2. Within a day after standing water appeared, fourth-instar copepodids of Diacydops haueri and D. crassicaudis brachycercus became active. These two species appeared every time the pond filled in winter, spring, or autumn. Other species, including Acanthocyclops vernalis, were usually not collected until weeks or months after the pond filled. Because the times and durations of fillings were extremely variable, species composition differed among years, with the most species (eleven) appearing in 1984, the year with the longest hydroperiod. 3. The abundances of emerging Diacydops were much lower in 1988 and 1989 (range of means from seven fillings in spring and autumn: 675–7382 animals m^?2) than 1985 (range of means from three fillings in winter: 26,037–107,418 animals m^?2). Low abundances of emerging animals could have been caused by poor survival of dormant animals, poor production during preceding seasons, or incomplete emergence of the dormant populations. 4. Substrate samples from the dry pond were collected in spring, summer, and autumn 1988 and winter 1989 to measure emergence of the cyclopoids in laboratory incubations. Population densities of emerging animals were much lower in 1988 and 1989 (range of means from seven experiments: 0–120 animals m^?2 over the first 3 days) than in similar experiments in 1984 (Taylor & Mahoney, 1990, means from two experiments: 3630 and 6890 animals m^?2). 5. Despite the low abundance of animals emerging from dormancy in late 1989, the cyclopoid populations in 1990 reached similar densities of copepodids (10^4?-10⁵ animals m^?2) to those reached in 1984 and 1985. These results suggest that short generation time and high reproductive capacity permit rapid recovery from population reductions.     

Complexity of environment and parsimony of decision rules in insect societies

This paper shows how colonies of social insects process information and solve problems in a complex environment, while keeping some parsimony at the level of the individuals' decision rules. Two studies on ant foraging reveal the diversity of adaptive colony-level patterns that can be generated through self-organization, based on the same individual-level recruitment rules. Regarding prey scavenging, the "ability to retrieve the prey" rule accounts for changes in foraging patterns, with increasing prey size, that show all stages intermediate between an individual and a mass exploitation of food resources. Regarding liquid food foraging, the "ability to ingest a desired volume" rule enables a colony to adjust the number of tending ants to the honeydew production of aphids. In both cases, decision rules are based on intelligent criteria that intrinsically integrate information on multiple variables that are relevant to the ants. Furthermore, the environment can contribute directly to the emergence of collective patterns, independently of any individual behavioral changes. Each environmental factor, including abiotic ones, that alters the dynamics of information transfer in group-living animals should be reconsidered not simply as a constraint but also as a part of the decision-making process and as a agent that shapes the collective pattern.     

Conservatism in laboratory microsocieties: unpredictable payoffs accentuate group-specific traditions

Theoretical work predicts that individuals should strategically increase their reliance on social learning when individual learning would be costly or risky, or when the payoffs for individually learned behaviors are uncertain. Using a method known to elicit cumulative cultural evolution in the laboratory, we investigated the degree of within-group similarity, and between-group variation, in design choices made by participants under conditions of varying uncertainty about the likely effectiveness of those designs. Participants were required to build a tower from spaghetti and modeling clay, their goal being to build the tower as high as possible. In one condition, towers were measured immediately on completion and, therefore, participants were able to judge the success of their design during building. In the other condition, participants' towers were measured 5 min after completion, following a deliberate attempt to test the tower's stability, making it harder for participants to judge whether an innovative solution was liable to result in a good score on the final measurement. Cultural peculiarity (i.e., the extent to which a design could be identified as belonging to a particular chain) was stronger in the delayed measure condition, indicating that participants were placing greater reliance on social learning. Furthermore, in this condition, there was only very weak evidence of successive improvement in performance over learner generations, whereas in the immediate measure condition there was a clear effect of steadily increasing scores on the goal measurement. Increasing the risk associated with learning for oneself may favor the development of arbitrary traditions.     

Choice of optimal oviposition sites by Hoplobatrachus occipitalis (Anura: Ranidae) in an unpredictable and patchy environment

 The rock pools on the river bank of the Comoé National Park (West Africa) provide a very diverse and unpredictable environment for anuran larval development. Because rock pools differ considerably in biotic and abiotic parameters, it should be adaptive for reproducing anurans to choose the most suitable oviposition sites. During the beginning of each rainy season (March to May), from 1991 to 1995, we investigated the allocation of breeding sites by Hoplobatrachus occipitalis, counted the number of eggs, and measured several biotic and abiotic factors that might influence the choice of a spawning site. The probability of predation by conspecific cannibalistic tadpoles and the water-holding capacity (WHC) of pools were the best predictor of number of eggs laid. We experimentally investigated the influence of these two parameters on egg-laying and showed that adults potentially can assess the presence, density, and size of tadpoles in pools by chemical cues. Likewise, manipulation of the water-holding capacity caused a rapid change in egg-laying behavior. To assess the risk of desiccation, frogs have to visit familiar pools repeatedly to monitor the decrease in volume over time and thus gain information about the pools’ water-holding capacity. Received: 22 April 1996 / Accepted: 17 July 1996     

Self-organized control of bipedal locomotion by neural oscillators in unpredictable environment

A new principle of sensorimotor control of legged locomotion in an unpredictable environment is proposed on the basis of neurophysiological knowledge and a theory of nonlinear dynamics. Stable and flexible locomotion is realized as a global limit cycle generated by a global entrainment between the rhythmic activities of a nervous system composed of coupled neural oscillators and the rhythmic movements of a musculo-skeletal system including interaction with its environment. Coordinated movements are generated not by slaving to an explicit representation of the precise trajectories of the movement of each part but by dynamic interactions among the nervous system, the musculo-skeletal system and the environment. The performance of a bipedal model based on the above principle was investigated by computer simulation. Walking movements stable to mechanical perturbations and to environmental changes were obtained. Moreover, the model generated not only the walking movement but also the running movement by changing a single parameter nonspecific to the movement. The transitions between the gait patterns occurred with hysteresis.     

Altered risk-based decision making following adolescent alcohol use results from an imbalance in reinforcement learning in rats

Alcohol use during adolescence has profound and enduring consequences on decision-making under risk. However, the fundamental psychological processes underlying these changes are unknown. Here, we show that alcohol use produces over-fast learning for better-than-expected, but not worse-than-expected, outcomes without altering subjective reward valuation. We constructed a simple reinforcement learning model to simulate altered decision making using behavioral parameters extracted from rats with a history of adolescent alcohol use. Remarkably, the learning imbalance alone was sufficient to simulate the divergence in choice behavior observed between these groups of animals. These findings identify a selective alteration in reinforcement learning following adolescent alcohol use that can account for a robust change in risk-based decision making persisting into later life.     

Decision making: singin' in the brain

Which neurons in the brain "decide" to initiate particular behaviors in response to sensory information? In this issue of Neuron, two papers (Kohatsu et?al. and von Philipsborn et?al.) identify candidates in the courtship circuitry of Drosophila. The activity of these neurons is both regulated by sex pheromones and necessary and sufficient to trigger male love song.     

Cytokinesis: placing and making the final cut

Cytokinesis is the process by which cells physically separate after the duplication and spatial segregation of the genetic material. A number of general principles apply to this process. First the microtubule cytoskeleton plays an important role in the choice and positioning of the division site. Once the site is chosen, the local assembly of the actomyosin contractile ring remodels the plasma membrane. Finally, membrane trafficking to and membrane fusion at the division site cause the physical separation of the daughter cells, a process termed abscission. Here we will discuss recent advances in our understanding of the mechanisms of cytokinesis in animals, yeast, and plants.