Seasonality of mortality in Sri Lanka: Biometeorological considerations

The seasonal variation of mortality in Sri Lanka was studied in relation to meteorological variables. Time series data of the total monthly number of deaths in men and women from 1976 to 1980 were analyzed by power spectrum analysis of the fast Fourier transformation method in the areas of Colombo (lowland area, altitude 7 m) and Nuwara-Eliya (highland area, altitude 1890 m), respectively. In the Colombo area, where the mean temperature was always high (mean, 27.5 °C), a seasonal variation in mortality of 6 months was validated by power spectrum analysis with peak times in June and November. These mortality peaks corresponded to those of the amounts of rainfall which also showed an identical predominant period of 6 months. In the Nuwara Eliya area, where the mean temperature was always low at about 15–16 °C, a seasonal variation of approximately 3 months was found in addition to the 6 months' periodicity. The comparison of the power spectrum pattern of mortality with those of meteorological variables suggested that the amount of rainfall was associated with the seasonal variation of mortality in the Nuwara-Eliya area. In conclusion, the seasonality of mortality in Sri Lanka, a typical tropical zone country, was related to seasonal variation in the amount of rainfall, or a humidity factor, but not to mean temperature.     

Day-to-day and seasonal fluctuations of urban mortality in Kyoto,Japan

The study and interpretation of temporal variability in mortality requires the consideration of both exogenous and endogenous influences as underlying factors. In the present paper the relative contribution of fluctuations in daily weather was investigated using the unbiased techniques of lagged cross-correlation and spectral analyses. The study focused on patterns of daily mortality in Kyoto, Japan. Studied herein were total mortality of all ages less accidental, ischemic heart (IHD), cerebrovascular (CVD), cardiovascular (IHD + CVD), cancer and among elderly (over 70 years of age) deaths. The meteorological factors were mean, maximum and minimum daily temperature, mean barometric pressure, mean relative humidity, and mean and maximum wind speed. It was found that after extreme weather conditions, such as heat waves (with mean air temperature in excess of 30°C) or the intrusion of cold waves (with mean air temperature below 0°C), mortality increased to about three times the daily average with a lag effect of usually one—three days and up to one week. Over the year, however, weather fluctuations were found to account statistically for no more than 10% of the overall annual variability in mortality. Importantly, the short-term upswings in mortality were usually accompanied by noticeable drops in the number of deaths on the subsequent days suggesting a triggering effect of external factors. The most weather-sensitive mortality group was people over 70 years of age.     

A prospective study of seasonal variation in shift-work tolerance

Seasonal effects on shift-work tolerance were assessed using the Standardized Shiftwork Index and the 21-item Hamilton Depression Scale. Participants (N=88) mainly worked a two-day, two-night, four-off rotation with 12 h shifts changing at 06:00 and 18:00 h in Vancouver, Canada. At this latitude (approximately 49 degrees N), daylength varies seasonally from approximately 16 to approximately 8 h, and both daily commutes occur in the dark in mid-winter and in sunlight in mid-summer. Questionnaires were completed twice, near the summer and winter solstices (order counterbalanced). Outcome variables were mood, general psychological health, sleep quality, chronic fatigue, physical health, job satisfaction, and social and domestic disruption. Of these, general psychological health and mood were significantly worse in winter, while sleep was more disturbed in summer. In winter, 31% exceeded the cutoff for psychological distress, and >70% scored in the higher than normal range for depressive symptoms. In summer, the proportions dropped to 19% and 53%, respectively. Measures of physical health and psychosocial well-being showed no seasonal effects. Relationships among explanatory and outcome variables, assessed by linear regression and canonical correlations, were also stable across season. Neuroticism was the strongest predictor of tolerance to shift work. Age was predictive only of sleep disturbance in both summer and winter. These results indicate that time of year can affect important outcome measures in shift-work assessment and intervention studies. The high average scores on measures of psychological distress and depression in winter suggest that at northern latitudes, some shift schedules may increase the risk of seasonal-type depression.     

A study of weekly and seasonal variation of stroke onset

A registry based study was conducted to assess the variation in first-onset stroke with weekdays and seasons, in relation to the effects of age. Between 1 December 1991 and 30 November 1998, 10,729 first-onset stroke patients aged 25 or more were registered in Toyama Prefecture, Japan. We compared the weekly and seasonal variation in first-onset stroke by a one-way goodness-of-fit chi(2)-test. The relationship between seasonal variation in stroke onset and age was also evaluated by the method of Kendall's tau-b R x C tables with ordered categories. The frequency of onset of all strokes and cerebral infarctions (CI) was significantly higher on weekdays than at weekends (P < 0.01). More men had strokes and CI on a Monday (P < 0.01), and more women had cerebral hemorrhage (CH) on a Monday and CI at the end of the week. Stroke incidence was higher in patients aged less than 60 years (20.6%) than in those aged 60 years or over (18.7%) on a Monday compared to the weekend. By chi(2)-test, comparing observed with expected numbers of stroke onsets, weighted by the number of days in each 3-month period, the incidence of all strokes, CI and CH was significantly higher in winter and spring than in summer. The seasonal variation in the onset of stroke declined with age: all strokes (P < 0.001) and CH (P < 0.001) in both genders; subarachnoid hemorrhage (P < 0.001) only in men. Our study shows that the onset of stroke is more frequent on weekdays than on weekends, and may be associated with changes in psychophysiological stresses between working days and the weekend. We also observed a clear negative dose response relationship between seasonal variations in occurrence and age. It may be speculated that younger people have more change to work outdoors, exposing themselves to the winter environment. Their lifestyle and physiological condition may be different from those of older people.     

Vertical distribution and seasonal variation of eelgrass beds in Iwachi Bay,Izu Peninsula,Japan

The vertical distribution and population structure of eelgrass beds were surveyed in Iwachi Bay, along the Pacific coast of central Japan. Samplings were conducted from May through November 1977 by SCUBA. Eelgrass was distributed between 3 and 11 m in depth. The relative light intensity at 12 m depth was 11% at the lower range. The highest population density was 290 shoots/m² in September and the fresh weight of biomass was 888 g/m² in July at 7 m depth. The maximum mean leaf area index was about 3 at 10 m depth in July. The ratio of reproductive shoots to the total shoots was about 36% at 7 m depth in June. Eelgrass showed good growth at 7–10 m depth, which is comparatively deeper than other eelgrass habitations. The high values of water transparency and sunshine duration, as well as solar radiation compared with other localities was believed to contribute to the growth of eelgrass in deeper waters in Iwachi Bay.     

Large-scale seasonal variation in the prevalence and severity of chytridiomycosis

The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has been implicated as the causative agent of mass mortalities, population declines and the extinctions of amphibian species worldwide. Although several studies have shown that the prevalence of chytridiomycosis (the disease caused by the fungus) increases in cooler months, the magnitude and timing of these seasonal fluctuations have yet to be accurately quantified. We conducted disease sampling in a single population of stony creek frogs Litoria wilcoxii on 13 occasions over a 21-month period and used quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction to detect and quantify the number of B. dendrobatidis zoospores present on samples. Disease prevalence varied significantly across sampling sessions, peaking at 58.3% (in early spring) and dropping to as low as 0% on two occasions (late summer and early autumn). There was a significant negative relationship between disease prevalence and mean air temperature in the 30 days prior to sampling. These large-scale seasonal fluctuations in chytridiomycosis levels will strongly influence conservation programs and amphibian disease research.     

Phenotypic and genetic characterizations of Streptococcus dysgalactiae strains isolated from fish collected in Japan and other Asian countries

Lancefield group C Streptococcus dysgalactiae is an emerging fish pathogen, which was first isolated in 2002 in Japan. Streptococcus dysgalactiae isolates collected from diseased fish in Japan ( n =12), Taiwan ( n =12), China ( n =2), Malaysia ( n =3), and Indonesia ( n =1) were characterized using biased sinusoidal field gel electrophoresis (BSFGE), sodA gene sequence analysis, and antimicrobial susceptibility. These isolates exhibited high phenotypic homogeneity irrespective of the countries from where the strains were collected. Seventeen isolates were found to be resistant to oxytetracycline and carried the tet (M) gene, except for the strains collected in Taiwan and the PP1564 strain collected in China. The sodA gene sequence analysis revealed that 23 isolates were identical, except for one Japanese isolate (KNH07902), in which a single nucleotide differed from that of the other isolates. Based on BSFGE typing by ApaI macrorestriction, the isolates – including the Japanese, Taiwanese, and Chinese isolates – could be grouped into one main cluster at a 70% similarity level. However, the macrorestriction genotypes of some isolates were apparently distinct from those of the main cluster.     

Cyclic variation in seasonal recruitment and the evolution of the seasonal decline in Ural owl clutch size

Plastic life-history traits can be viewed as adaptive responses to environmental conditions, described by a reaction norm. In birds, the decline in clutch size with advancing laying date has been viewed as a reaction norm in response to the parent's own (somatic or local environmental) condition and the seasonal decline in its offspring's reproductive value. Theory predicts that differences in the seasonal recruitment are mirrored in the seasonal decrease in clutch size. We tested this prediction in the Ural owl. The owl's main prey, voles, show a cycle of low, increase and peak phases. Recruitment probability had a humped distribution in both increase and peak phases. Average recruitment probability was two to three times higher in the increase phase and declined faster in the latter part of the season when compared with the peak phase. Clutch size decreased twice as steep in the peak (0.1 eggs day-1) as in the increase phase (0.05 eggs day-1). This result appears to refute theoretical predictions of seasonal clutch size declines. However, a re-examination of current theory shows that the predictions of modelling are less robust to details of seasonal condition accumulation in birds than originally thought. The observed pattern can be predicted, assuming specifically shaped seasonal increases in condition across individuals.     

Is the rain in India on the wane? Biometeorological consideration

The trends in the total and seasonal rainfall and rainy days of 13 stations analysed by means of the 20-year running mean reveal no out and out decreasing tendency. Slight importance is to be attached to the decline in the statistically dry season of little value to agriculture. The waning tendency reported earlier for Ranchi plateau since 1920 following deforestation is not substantiated. As for the accentuation of aridity in NW India since 1960 that has been suggested earlier, the conclusion was based on the combined precipitation data of several arid Afrasian stations having mediterranean and tropical regimes. 20-year moving mean of combined rainfall of 5 stations in and around Indian tropical desert as well vegetational data do not support this view.Opinion is expressed in recent years that the rainfall in India and Africa is declining steadily in the last decades (Warren, 1974; Winstanley, 1973). The present paper aims to examine critically how far this notion is true for India from the view point of a bioclimatologist.     

Statistical analysis of the seasonal variation in demographic data

There has been little agreement as to whether reproduction or similar demographic events occur seasonally and, especially, whether there is any universal seasonal pattern. One reason is that the seasonal pattern may vary in different populations and at different times. Another reason is that different statistical methods have been used. Every statistical model is based on certain assumed conditions and hence is designed to identify specific components of the seasonal pattern. Therefore, the statistical method applied should be chosen with due consideration. In this study we present, develop, and compare different statistical methods for the study of seasonal variation. Furthermore, we stress that the methods are applicable for the analysis of many kinds of demographic data. The first approaches in the literature were based on monthly frequencies, on the simple sine curve, and on the approximation that the months are of equal length. Later, "the population at risk" and the fact that the months have different lengths were considered. Under these later assumptions the targets of the statistical analyses are the rates. In this study we present and generalize the earlier models. Furthermore, we use trigonometric regression methods. The trigonometric regression model in its simplest form corresponds to the sine curve. We compare the regression methods with the earlier models and reanalyze some data. Our results show that models for rates eliminate the disturbing effects of the varying length of the months, including the effect of leap years, and of the seasonal pattern of the population at risk. Therefore, they give the purest analysis of the seasonal pattern of the demographic data in question, e.g., rates of general births, twin maternities, neural tube defects, and mortality. Our main finding is that the trigonometric regression methods are more flexible and easier to handle than the earlier methods, particularly when the data differ from the simple sine curve.     

Characteristic seasonal variation in dissolved uranium concentration induced by the change of lake water pH in Lake Biwa,Japan

Epilimnion-dominated profiles of dissolved uranium (U) have been observed during summer in an oxygenated Japanese lake, Lake Biwa, contrary to the commonly accepted view that U shows conservative behavior in oxygenated seas and lakes. Monthly observations were conducted to reveal the mechanism for such characteristic distribution and geochemical behavior of dissolved U in the lake. In the surface water, dissolved U concentration started to increase in spring, peaked in summer, and decreased from autumn to winter. In contrast, the concentration remained almost constant in the middle layer (40 m depth) and decreased slightly in the bottom layer (70 m depth) throughout the stagnation period. Mass balance calculations of U suggest that the major mechanism for seasonal variations in the surface layer is the supply of U, not via water inflow from the watershed, but by internal chemical reactions within the lake. A laboratory experiment using the lake water and sediment demonstrated that U was desorbed from and adsorbed onto sediment in response to variations in lake water pH. From these results, it is inferred that the seasonal variation in the concentration of dissolved U in the epilimnion results mainly from the desorptive/adsorptive processes of U between sediment/water interface in response to variation in water pH, which is affected by biological activity in the lake.     

A community-based study of seasonal variation in the onset of chronic fatigue syndrome and idiopathic chronic fatigue

One proposed hypothesis regarding the etiology of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is that there is a subgroup of patients in which symptom onset is precipitated by a viral infection. If this is indeed true, then one would anticipate a greater incidence of the emergence of CFS symptoms during months when viral infections occur with the greatest frequency. The current community-based epidemiology study examined the month of symptom onset for 31 patients with CFS and 44 others with idiopathic chronic fatigue (ICF). It was determined that the distribution of the month of illness onset for the CFS and ICF groups was nonrandom, with greater numbers of participants than expected reporting an onset of CFS and ICF during January. (Chronobiology International, 18(2), 315-319, 2001)