基于MaxEnt模型的气候变化下杏树鬃球蚧在中国的潜在地理分布预测

【目的】杏树鬃球蚧在天山野果林暴发成灾,对野杏的生存以及野果林的生态环境造成严重影响,同时危害栽培果园。预测未来气候情景下杏树鬃球蚧在中国的潜在适生区,可为农林部门开展防控工作提供科学依据。【方法】收集关于杏树鬃球蚧的分布点与气候数据,采用MaxEnt模型预测其在中国的适生区。【结果】MaxEnt模型中的AUC值为0.949,表明预测结果具有较高可靠性。最冷月最低温度、最冷季度降水量、温度季节性变化标准差、等温性是影响杏树鬃球蚧潜在分布的主要环境变量。杏树鬃球蚧在我国分布区较为广阔。该模型预测杏树鬃球蚧的高适生区主要分布在辽宁省环渤海区域、河北、北京、天津、山东、河南、陕西省中部、甘肃和陕西的临界处,以及新疆维吾尔自治区的伊犁哈萨克自治州、巴音郭楞蒙古自治州和阿勒泰地区,中适生区以高适生区为核心向外蔓延。其高、中、低适生区分别占中国陆地面积的4.62%、6.69%、18.77%。未来气候情景下,高适生区呈进一步扩散趋势,尤其在新疆地区,高适生区大面积扩散。【结论】杏树鬃球蚧适生区面积占陆地面积的30.08%,有继续扩张和大面积暴发风险,在我国西北地区、华北地区面临的形势更为严峻,应引起相关部门关注。     

气候变化和人类活动干扰下骆驼刺潜在分布格局变化特征

气候变化和人类活动是影响物种分布的最重要因素。骆驼刺是我国荒漠区的重要建群种,建群种的丧失将对荒漠生态系统产生严重损伤。因此预测气候变化和人类活动影响下骆驼刺适宜生境的变化特点对保护我国荒漠生态系统具有重要的意义。本研究采用61个骆驼分布点数据,和21个环境因子数据,运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）预测骆驼刺当前在有、无人类活动干扰下的适宜生境分布,对影响其分布的环境因素进行了评估。并预测未来（2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080,2081-2100）四条共享社会经济路径（SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585）情景下,骆驼刺潜在分布区的变化特点。研究结果表明,在无人类活动干扰的情况下,骆驼刺适生区面积达132.29万km²,覆盖我国西北干旱区的大部分面积。年均降水量、最冷季度平均温、平均气温日较差、年均温、温度季节性、降水的季节性和高程被确定为影响骆驼刺潜在分布区的最重要因素。而在加入人类活动强度因素之后,骆驼刺适生区面积显著下降至71.31万km²,且呈现出破碎化状态。此时,年降水量、人类活动强度和高程是影响骆驼刺分布的最重要原因。在未来气候情景下,骆驼刺的适生区将产生一定的扩张。尤其在中高强迫（SSP370）和高强迫（SSP585）情景下,骆驼刺的适生面积将随时间推移产生显著的增加,且这种扩张主要向高纬度和高海拔地区发展。骆驼刺能保留大部分原有生境,仅在内蒙古中西部地区发生少量收缩。在气候变化条件下,骆驼刺能够在西北干旱区生存并扩张,故可将其作为防沙治沙的优良物种进行保护与开发。     

入侵植物薇甘菊在贵州的潜在适生区及其变化趋势

【目的】薇甘菊是一种危害性极大的外来入侵植物,2016—2022年间,多次在贵州省发现其入侵种群。预测薇甘菊在贵州的潜在适生区及其变化规律,可对贵州薇甘菊防控体系建设提供依据。【方法】在全球筛选薇甘菊分布点1001个,结合22个环境因子数据,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测当前及未来气候条件下薇甘菊在贵州的潜在分布情况,并进行主导因子分析。【结果】当前气候条件下,薇甘菊在贵州的高适生区面积为1.51万km²,占全省面积的8.60%,主要位于黔西南州和黔南州;在未来气候条件下,薇甘菊在贵州的适生区呈扩增状态,适生区分布中心坐标(26.43°N,107.00°E)由黔南州向贵阳市转移;影响薇甘菊适生范围的主导因子是年平均温度、昼夜温差平均值、温度季节性变化、最冷月份最低温、年降水量和最热季平均降水量。【结论】薇甘菊在贵州的适生区范围广,温度和降水是主要影响因素。在未来气候条件下,薇甘菊在贵州的适生区呈扩增状态,整体向北迁移扩散的趋势明显。     

未来气候变化下栎树猝死病菌在中国的适生性分析

基于中国国家有害生物检疫信息平台的有关记录和文献以及WoldClim网站,获取栎树猝死病菌的地理分布数据及气候数据,并用SPSS软件和刀切法筛选主导环境变量。利用MaxEnt生态位模型和ArcGIS软件,对栎树猝死病菌现代和未来情景下在我国的潜在适生区进行预测,并计算和绘制栎树猝死病菌高风险区质心转移轨迹。通过不同年份和不同气候情况下的受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)的训练集和测试集受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值均大于0.91,说明MaxEnt模型准确并适用于预测栎树猝死病菌在我国的潜在分布,同时结合其主要寄主植物的地理分布进一步增强预测模型的可信度。预测结果表明,最冷季度降水量、最冷季度平均温度、最干季度平均温度和年均降水量是影响栎树猝死病菌分布的主要环境变量。而2030s(2021—2040年)、2050s(2041—2060年)和2070s(2061—2080年)在3种气候情景下(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5),栎树猝死病菌的潜在适生区相较于现代情景下都有所增加。此外,高风险区面积在3个年代3种情景下的面积增长率均高于45%。高风险区质心变化的预测结果表...     

茶园重要捕食性天敌白斑猎蛛在中国的潜在适生区预测

白斑猎蛛是茶园重要的捕食性天敌,对茶园害虫生物防治起着重要作用。研究白斑猎蛛的潜在分布范围以及气候变暖对其分布潜在的影响,对保护和利用白斑猎蛛,充分发挥其对茶园害虫的生态调控作用具有重要意义。基于白斑猎蛛当前在中国的163个分布点和6个环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型预测当前及未来(2050年)2种气候情景(SSP2＿4.5、SSP5＿8.5)下白斑猎蛛在中国的潜在适生区。结果显示,MaxEnt模型对白斑猎蛛潜在适生区分布预测具有较好的准确度,平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.852;测试样本遗漏率与预测遗漏率基本吻合,模型构建效果很好。白斑猎蛛在中国大部分省份均有分布,当前适宜分布区总面积约为429.93万km~2,占国土总面积的44.78%;高适生区主要分布在山东、河南、江苏、安徽、湖北、重庆、浙江、江西、湖南、贵州、福建。未来气候情景下,白斑猎蛛潜在适生区面积呈扩大趋势,主要体现在新疆、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、陕西、广东、广西、海南的适生区范围扩张。在SSP5＿8.5气候情景下,总适生区面积变化最大,由当前的429.93万km~2增加到562.22万km~2,增幅达30.7...     

气候变化对全球马缨丹分布影响的空间模拟

【目的】马缨丹是世界10种最有害的入侵杂草之一,预测其潜在适生区变化对入侵植物防控具有重要意义。【方法】以马缨丹为研究对象,采用有效分布点数据1744份和10个气候因子,使用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS10.4软件,选用当前气候情景以及2050sSSP126、2050sSSP245、2050sRCP5.8、2090sSSP126、2090sSSP245、2090sSSP585 6个不同气候情景,对马缨丹全球潜在分布区进行预测。【结果】温度和降水因子是制约马缨丹入侵的主要因子,其中年降水量(bio12,48.6%)、最干季度的平均温度(bio9,36.4%)、温度季节性(bio4,4.6%)和最热季度的平均温度(bio10,4.2%)是制约马缨丹分布格局的主要环境因子。南美洲、非洲南部、亚洲南部以及澳大利亚北部和东部具有较高的入侵风险。从当前气候情景到2050年气候情景再到2090年气候情景的过渡中,其适生区面积呈增加趋势,其中高适生区面积持续增加。【结论】在水热条件以及生物因素3个层面上严格防控马缨丹入侵,以增加土著生态系统的完整性。     

桫椤的潜在适生区及其变化

桫椤是极为珍贵的孑遗木本蕨类植物。本研究利用Maxent生态位模型研究其全球潜在适生区及其变化,并运用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)验证了精度,以为其资源的保护、搜寻和引种栽培提供参考。结果表明: 桫椤的潜在适生区主要位于亚洲,少量分布于北美洲、中美洲和香草四岛、新西兰、新喀里多尼亚、斐济。当前气候条件下,桫椤的全球适生区总面积为357.1万km²,其中,亚洲占88.4%,中国占49.5%。桫椤在中国的高适生区主要分布在云贵高原、四川盆地、岭南和台湾岛。影响桫椤适生区分布的主导因子为最暖季降水量、7月平均降水量、温度季节性和昼夜温差月均值。在SSP1_2.6气候情景下,2041—2060年,桫椤全球潜在适生区面积预计减少7.8%,2081—2100年预计增加3.2%;在SSP2_4.5气候情景下,2041—2060和2081—2100年其面积预计分别增加2.9%和7.2%;在SSP5_8.5气候情景下,2041—2060和2081—2100年其面积预计分别增加3.3%和5.3%。     

基于MaxEnt模型的甘肃安西极旱荒漠国家级自然保护区北山羊生境评估

明晰甘肃安西极旱荒漠国家级自然保护区珍稀濒危物种北山羊的分布格局,并阐释气候变化和人类活动对北山羊的影响,对今后北山羊生境管理和物种保护具有重要意义。基于北山羊实测分布点记录和环境变量数据,结合MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS空间分析功能,利用CMIP6的8个气候模式均值预测中度发展路径（SSP2-4.5）下,基准期（1970-2000年）和未来气候（2041-2060年、2081-2100年）变化情景下,甘肃安西极旱荒漠国家级自然保护区北山羊的潜在适生区分布范围及变化,并综合贡献率和置换重要性值对北山羊生境选择关键环境因子进行了分析。研究结果表明：（1） MaxEnt模型的预测精度较高,三种气候条件下ROC曲线下面积（AUC,Area Under Curve）>0.97,且真实技巧统计（TSS,True Skill Statistic）>0.90,模拟结果可靠。（2）影响北山羊生境选择的主要环境因子为气候条件（降水量季节性变异系数和等温性）、海拔和人为干扰（距泉和居名点距离）。水是保护区北山羊生存的最基本要素,气候条件共同控制北山羊生境条件。此外,北山羊习性决定其生境宜选择高海拔和远离人类活动影响地区。（3）基准期保护区北山羊主要分布在北片和南片高海拔山区,面积365.77 km²（占整个保护区的4.31%）,北山羊适生区面积北片>南片、中高等适生区主要位于保护区北片。（4） CMIP6未来气候变化情景下,随着保护区生态环境改善和濒危物种保护措施的实施,北山羊潜在适生区面积呈增加趋势,但是受北山羊近亲繁殖的影响,整体上北山羊数量和适生区面积增加并不显著且有向南部及高海拔地区转移趋势。     

中国东北地区12个建群树种对气候变化响应的MaxEnt模型分析

气候变化是当前全球生物多样性面临的最大威胁之一,对物种地理分布格局具有较大影响。东北森林物种丰富度较高,目前尚缺乏基于主要树种、未来不同气候模式的综合研究。基于12种建群树种的分布数据及23个环境变量（19个生物气候因子、土地利用类型、海拔、坡度、坡向）数据,应用MaxEnt模型首次对东北地区乔木树种在3种气候变化情景下（SSP126可持续路径、SSP245中间路径、SSP585化石燃料为主发展路径）的潜在丰富度分布格局、主导环境变量以及树种损失、获得和周转情况进行了预测。结果表明：不同未来气候情景下东北地区各树种的潜在分布变化存在差异,适生区面积减小的树种有：兴安落叶松、山杨、春榆、白桦、水曲柳、胡桃楸、蒙古栎、辽东桤木,减小幅度达到10%-30%;适生区面积变化不大的树种有：红皮云杉、樟子松、黄檗,多数情况下低、中和高适生区面积变化发生了抵消,导致总适生区面积变化不大;适生区增加的树种有：红松,增加幅度达20%左右。环境因素将影响东北地区乔木树种潜在适宜性分布,其中,降水因素对东北地区树种分布格局起关键作用,尤其是降水量季节性变化,是影响东北地区50%左右树种分布格局的主导环境因子。东北地区乔木树种在无迁移和SSP585气候情景下受威胁程度相对较高,而在SSP126气候情景下大多处于低风险状态;物种迁移假设的对物种受威胁程度的影响先于气候变化情景的影响,树种发生适度迁移能够缓解树种受威胁的状况。网格单元中物种损失和周转的预测表明,东北地区树种高周转率主要由树种高损失率造成,损失率较高的地区往往树种周转率也相对较高。预测气候变化对东北地区树木分布格局的影响,有助于制定更有效的气候变化适应策略,以促进东北地区树木的可持续发展。     

气候变化情景下裸冠菊在中国的潜在适生区分布预测

外来入侵植物裸冠菊(Gymnocoronis spilanthoides)具有较强的入侵适应性能快速繁殖扩散,会对本土物种的生长繁殖及本地生态安全、景观格局等产生不良影响。基于265个有效分布点和7个环境变量,调整优化预测模型的调控倍频和特征组合参数,应用MaxEnt、ArcGIS、R软件预测当前和未来(2050s, 2070s)不同气候情景(SSP126, SSP245,SSP370, SSP585)下裸冠菊在中国的潜在地理分布,定量分析其适生区的空间变化及质心移动轨迹,最后采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)和测试遗漏率评估模型的精确性。未来气候模式选择中国国家气候中心开发的CMIP6中BCC-CSM2-MR。结果表明：(1)模型预测结果极准确,各组模型的AUC值均高于0.97;(2)最干季降水量(bio17)、最冷季度平均温(bio11)、温度季节性变化(bio4)和最暖季度平均降雨量(bio18)是影响裸冠菊地理分布的主导气候因子;(3)当前气候条件下,裸冠菊的总适生区面积达到191.18×10⁴km²,约占国土总面积的1...     

Foreign exploration for Scirtothrips perseae Nakahara (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) and associated natural enemies on avocado (Persea americana Miller)

Scirtothrips perseae Nakahara was discovered attacking avocados in California, USA, in 1996. Host plant surveys in California indicated that S. perseae has a highly restricted host range with larvae being found only on avocados, while adults were collected from 11 different plant species. As part of a management program for this pest, a “classical” biological control program was initiated and foreign exploration was conducted to delineate the home range of S. perseae, to survey for associated natural enemies and inventory other species of phytophagous thrips on avocados grown in Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Trinidad, and Brazil. Foreign exploration efforts indicate that S. perseae occurs on avocados grown at high altitudes (>1500 m) from Uruapan in Mexico south to areas around Guatemala City in Guatemala. In Costa Rica, S. perseae is replaced by an undescribed congener as the dominant phytophagous thrips on avocados grown at high altitudes (>1300 m). No species of Scirtothrips were found on avocados in the Dominican Republic, Trinidad, or Brazil. In total, 2136 phytophagous thrips were collected and identified, representing over 47 identified species from at least 19 genera. The significance of these species records is discussed. Of collected material 4% were potential thrips biological control agents. Natural enemies were dominated by six genera of predatory thrips (Aeolothrips, Aleurodothrips, Franklinothrips, Leptothrips, Scolothrips, and Karnyothrips). One genus each of parasitoid (Ceranisus) and predatory mite (Balaustium) were found. Based on the results of our sampling techniques, prospects for the importation of thrips natural enemies for use in a “classical” biological control program in California against S. perseae are not promising.     

Phylogeny of cardinalfishes (Teleostei: Gobiiformes: Apogonidae) and the evolution of visceral bioluminescence

The cardinalfishes (Apogonidae) are a diverse clade of small, mostly reef-dwelling fishes, for which a variety of morphological data have not yielded a consistent phylogeny. We use DNA sequence to hypothesize phylogenetic relationships within Apogonidae and among apogonids and other acanthomorph families, to examine patterns of evolution including the distribution of a visceral bioluminescence system. In conformance with previous studies, Apogonidae is placed in a clade with Pempheridae, Kurtidae, Leiognathidae, and Gobioidei. The apogonid genus Pseudamia is recovered outside the remainder of the family, not as sister to the superficially similar genus Gymnapogon. Species sampled from the Caribbean and Western Atlantic (Phaeoptyx, Astrapogon, and some Apogon species) form a clade, as do the larger-bodied Glossamia and Cheilodipterus. Incidence of visceral bioluminescence is found scattered throughout the phylogeny, independently for each group in which it is present. Examination of the fine structure of the visceral bioluminescence system through histology shows that light organs exhibit a range of morphologies, with some composed of complex masses of tubules (Siphamia, Pempheris, Parapriacanthus) and others lacking tubules but containing chambers formed by folds of the visceral epithelium (Acropoma, Archamia, Jaydia, and Rhabdamia). Light organs in Siphamia, Acropoma, Pempheris and Parapriacanthus are distinct from but connected to the gut; those in Archamia, Jaydia, and Rhabdamia are simply portions of the intestinal tract, and are little differentiated from the surrounding tissues. The presence or absence of symbiotic luminescent bacteria does not correlate with light organ structure; the tubular light organs of Siphamia and chambered tubes of Acropoma house bacteria, those in Pempheridae and the other Apogonidae do not.     

Biological control of three floating water weeds,<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eichhornia crassipes,Pistia stratiotes</Emphasis>, and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Salviniamolesta</Emphasis> in the Republic of Congo

Since 1999, four specific weevils (Coleoptera, Curculionidae) were released in the Republic of Congo against three exotic floating water weeds: Neochetina eichhorniae Warner and N. bruchi Hustache against water hyacinth, Neohydronomus affinis Hustache against water lettuce, and Cyrtobagous salviniae Calder and Sands against water fern. Recoveries of exotic weevils were made from all 24 release sites except one, and all four species have established and spread (up to 800 km for water hyacinth weevils). Within a few years of releases, control of water fern and water lettuce was such that fishing and navigation could be resumed, while reductions of water hyacinth populations were only beginning.     

Taxonomic status of the species of the green algal genusNeochloris

Komárek has recently reviewed the various species assigned to the green algal genusNeochloris Starr (Chlorococcales, Chlorococcaceae) and removed those with uninucleate vegetative cells to a new genus,Ettlia. Watanabe & Floyd, unaware ofKomárek's work, also reviewed the species ofNeochloris and distributed them among three genera—Neochloris, Chlorococcopsis gen. nov., andParietochloris gen. nov.—on the basis of details of the covering of the zoospore and the arrangement of the basal bodies of the flagellar apparatus. This paper reconciles these two treatments and makes additional recommendations at the ranks of genus, family, order, and class.     

A molecular phylogeny of Hebeloma species from Europe

In order to widen the scope of existing phylogenies of the ectomycorrhizal agaric genus Hebeloma a total of 53 new rDNA ITS sequences from that genus was generated, augmented by sequences retrieved from GenBank, and analysed using Bayesian, strict consensus and neighbour joining methods. The lignicolous Hebelomina neerlandica, Gymnopilus penetrans, and two species of Galerina served as outgroup taxa. Anamika indica, as well as representatives of the genera Hymenogaster and Naucoria, were included to test the monophyly of Hebeloma, which is confirmed by the results. Hebeloma, Naucoria, Hymenogaster and Anamika indica cluster in a strongly supported monophyletic hebelomatoid clade. All trees largely reflect the current infrageneric classification within Hebeloma, and divide the genus into mostly well-supported monophyletic groups surrounding H. crustuliniforme, H. velutipes, H. sacchariolens, H. sinapizans, and H. radicosum, with H. sarcophyllum being shown at an independent position; however this is not well supported. The section Indusiata divides with strong support into three groups, the position of the pleurocystidiate Hebeloma cistophilum suggests the possible existence of a third subsection within sect. Indusiata. Subsection Sacchariolentia is raised to the rank of section.     

Die GattungKarschia — Bindeglied zwischen bitunicaten Ascomyceten und lecanoralen Flechtenpilzen?

The genusKarschia, in the earlier sense, including saprophytes and parasites on lichens, has been thought to be a non-lichenized parallel genus of the lichen genusBuellia. Modern workers included it on the one hand inBuellia, on the other hand combined it with bitunicate ascomycetes. It is now proved thatKarschia is heterogeneous and contains but superficially similar members both of the genusBuellia of theLecanorales and of typical or masked bitunicateAscomycetes. Therefore, it can not be regarded as a link betweenLecanorales andDothideales. The type species ofKarschia belongs to theDothideales.

     

Demographic characteristics of an intertidal bay goby (Lepidogobius lepidus)

Synopsis In a fourteen month study (May 1976 – June 1977) I examined the following characteristics of an intertidal bay goby (Lepidogobius lepidus) in Morro Bay, California, U.S.A.: annual and seasonal patterns of abundance, age composition and growth rates, survivorship and mortality patterns, and the reproductive cycle for female gobies. Fishes were collected with the aid of quinaldine and otoliths and ovaries removed. Age and growth rates were estimated from otolith annuli using a back calculation formula and a Brody-Bertalanffy growth curve. Mortality rates were derived using the methods of Heincke (1913), Robson & Chapman (1960), mean age, and a catch curve (Ricker 1975). A gonad index was used to describe the annual reproductive cycle. Results indicated that abundance fluctuated seasonally and that these fluctuations appeared to be caused by reproductive emigrations. Bay gobies reached an age of 7+ and a standard length of 87 mm. Growth was relatively constant (6 mm yr⁻¹) until age 5, at which point it began to decline. The mean rates of survivorship, mortality, and instantaneous mortality were 0.75, 0.25, and 0.29 respectively. Mortality rates for individual age classes ranged from 0.13 to 0.51 and increased with age. This stock appears to reproduce mainly during the winter.     

Systematic significance of mature embryo of bamboos

The mature embryo of seven species belonging to five genera of Indian bamboos is described. In all these the basic pattern of embryo organisation is same: the scutellar and coleoptilar bundles are not separated by an internode, the epiblast is absent, the lower portion of the scutellum and the coleorhiza are separated by a cleft and the margins of embryonic leaves overlap. The features unique to fleshy fruited bamboos are: presence of a massive scutellum, the juxtaposition of plumule and radicle and the occurrence of a bud in the axil of the coleoptile. The fleshy fruit bearing bamboos should be classified into one group, the tribeMelocanneae. Evidence is provided to recognise additional groups in the subfamilyBambusoideae.