International Trade Modelling Using Open Flow Networks: A Flow-Distance Based Analysis

This paper models and analyzes international trade flows using open flow networks (OFNs) with the approaches of flow distances, which provide a novel perspective and effective tools for the study of international trade. We discuss the establishment of OFNs of international trade from two coupled viewpoints: the viewpoint of trading commodity flow and that of money flow. Based on the novel model with flow distance approaches, meaningful insights are gained. First, by introducing the concepts of trade trophic levels and niches, countries’ roles and positions in the global supply chains (or value-added chains) can be evaluated quantitatively. We find that the distributions of trading “trophic levels” have the similar clustering pattern for different types of commodities, and summarize some regularities between money flow and commodity flow viewpoints. Second, we find that active and competitive countries trade a wide spectrum of products, while inactive and underdeveloped countries trade a limited variety of products. Besides, some abnormal countries import many types of goods, which the vast majority of countries do not need to import. Third, harmonic node centrality is proposed and we find the phenomenon of centrality stratification. All the results illustrate the usefulness of the model of OFNs with its network approaches for investigating international trade flows.     

Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study

Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: “Political action” and “Technical steps”. There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts’ countries were also observed.     

Inequalities in Global Trade: A Cross-Country Comparison of Trade Network Position,Economic Wealth,Pollution and Mortality

In this paper we investigate how structural patterns of international trade give rise to emissions inequalities across countries, and how such inequality in turn impact countries’ mortality rates. We employ Multi-regional Input-Output analysis to distinguish between sulfur-dioxide (SO2) emissions produced within a country’s boarders (production-based emissions) and emissions triggered by consumption in other countries (consumption-based emissions). We use social network analysis to capture countries’ level of integration within the global trade network. We then apply the Prais-Winsten panel estimation technique to a panel data set across 172 countries over 20 years (1990–2010) to estimate the relationships between countries’ level of integration and SO2 emissions, and the impact of trade integration and SO2 emission on mortality rates. Our findings suggest a positive, (log-) linear relationship between a country’s level of integration and both kinds of emissions. In addition, although more integrated countries are mainly responsible for both forms of emissions, our findings indicate that they also tend to experience lower mortality rates. Our approach offers a unique combination of social network analysis with multiregional input-output analysis, which better operationalizes intuitive concepts about global trade and trade structure.     

Short and Long Term Investor Synchronization Caused by Decoupling

The dynamics of collective decision making is not yet well understood. Its practical relevance however can be of utmost importance, as experienced by people who lost their fortunes in turbulent moments of financial markets. In this paper we show how spontaneous collective “moods” or “biases” emerge dynamically among human participants playing a trading game in a simple model of the stock market. Applying theory and computer simulations to the experimental data generated by humans, we are able to predict the onset of such moments before they actually happen.     

Action Recognition Depends on Observer’s Level of Action Control and Social Personality Traits

Humans recognize both the movement (physical) goals and action (conceptual) goals of individuals with whom they are interacting. Here, we assessed whether spontaneous recognition of others’ goals depends on whether the observers control their own behavior at the movement or action level. We also examined the relationship between individual differences in empathy and ASD-like traits, and the processing of other individual’s movement and action goals that are known to be encoded in the “mirroring” and “mentalizing” brain networks. In order to address these questions, we used a computer-based card paradigm that made it possible to independently manipulate movement and action congruency of observed and executed actions. In separate blocks, participants were instructed to select either the right or left card (movement-control condition) or the higher or lower card (action-control condition), while we manipulated action- and movement-congruency of both actors’ goals. An action-congruency effect was present in all conditions and the size of this effect was significantly correlated with self-reported empathy and ASD-like traits. In contrast, movement-congruency effects were only present in the movement-control block and were strongly dependent on action-congruency. These results illustrate that spontaneous recognition of others’ behavior depends on the control scheme that is currently adopted by the observer. The findings suggest that deficits in action recognition are related to abnormal synthesis of perceived movements and prior conceptual knowledge that are associated with activations in the “mirroring” and “mentalizing” cortical networks.     

Developmental Trajectories of Body Mass Index Among Japanese Children and Impact of Maternal Factors during Pregnancy

Background

The aims of this study were to 1) determine the distinct patterns of body mass index (BMI) trajectories in Japanese children, and 2) elucidate the maternal factors during pregnancy, which contribute to the determination of those patterns.

Methodology/Principal Findings

All of the children (1,644 individuals) born in Koshu City, Japan, between 1991 and 1998 were followed in a longitudinal study exploring the subjects’ BMI. The BMI was calculated 11 times for each child between birth and 12 years of age. Exploratory latent class growth analyses were conducted to identify trajectory patterns of the BMI z-scores. The distribution of BMI trajectories were best characterized by a five-group model for boys and a six-group model for girls. The groups were named “stable thin,” “stable average,” “stable high average,” “progressive overweight,” and “progressive obesity” in both sexes; girls were allocated to an additional group called “progressive average.” Multinomial logistic regression found that maternal weight, smoking, and skipping breakfast during pregnancy were associated with children included in the progressive obesity pattern rather than the stable average pattern. These associations were stronger for boys than for girls.

Conclusions/Significance

Multiple developmental patterns in Japanese boys and girls were identified, some of which have not been identified in Western countries. Maternal BMI and some unfavorable behaviors during early pregnancy may impact a child’s pattern of body mass development. Further studies to explain the gender and regional differences that were identified are warranted, as these may be important for early life prevention of weight-associated health problems.     

Information Seeking Regarding Tobacco and Lung Cancer: Effects of Seasonality

This paper conducted one of the first comprehensive international Internet analyses of seasonal patterns in information seeking concerning tobacco and lung cancer. Search query data for the terms “tobacco” and “lung cancer” from January 2004 to January 2014 was collected from Google Trends. The relevant countries included the USA, Canada, the UK, Australia, and China. Two statistical approaches including periodogram and cross-correlation were applied to analyze seasonal patterns in the collected search trends and their associations. For these countries except China, four out of six cross-correlations of seasonal components of the search trends regarding tobacco were above 0.600. For these English-speaking countries, similar patterns existed in the data concerning lung cancer, and all cross-correlations between seasonal components of the search trends regarding tobacco and that regarding lung cancer were also above 0.700. Seasonal patterns widely exist in information seeking concerning tobacco and lung cancer on an international scale. The findings provide a piece of novel Internet-based evidence for the seasonality and health effects of tobacco use.     

Viewing Complex,Dynamic Scenes “Through the Eyes” of Another Person: The Gaze-Replay Paradigm

We present a novel “Gaze-Replay” paradigm that allows the experimenter to directly test how particular patterns of visual input—generated from people’s actual gaze patterns—influence the interpretation of the visual scene. Although this paradigm can potentially be applied across domains, here we applied it specifically to social comprehension. Participants viewed complex, dynamic scenes through a small window displaying only the foveal gaze pattern of a gaze “donor.” This was intended to simulate the donor’s visual selection, such that a participant could effectively view scenes “through the eyes” of another person. Throughout the presentation of scenes presented in this manner, participants completed a social comprehension task, assessing their abilities to recognize complex emotions. The primary aim of the study was to assess the viability of this novel approach by examining whether these Gaze-Replay windowed stimuli contain sufficient and meaningful social information for the viewer to complete this social perceptual and cognitive task. The results of the study suggested this to be the case; participants performed better in the Gaze-Replay condition compared to a temporally disrupted control condition, and compared to when they were provided with no visual input. This approach has great future potential for the exploration of experimental questions aiming to unpack the relationship between visual selection, perception, and cognition.     

Effect of Energy Under-Reporting on Secular Trends of Dietary Patterns in a Mediterranean Population

BackgroundDiet is an important factor in the prevention of chronic diseases. Analysis of secular trends of dietary patterns can be biased by energy under-reporting. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to analyse the impact of energy under-reporting on dietary patterns and secular trends in dietary patterns defined by cluster analysis.ResultsThree clusters, “healthy”, “mixed” and “western”, were identified for both surveys. The “mixed” cluster was the predominant cluster in both surveys. Excluding EUR reduced the proportion of the “mixed” cluster up to 6.40% in the 2000 survey; this caused secular trend increase in the prevalence of the “mixed” pattern. Cross-classification analysis of all participants and PER’ data showed substantial agreement in cluster assignments: 68.7% in 2000 and 84.4% in 2005. Excluding EUR did not cause meaningful (≥15%) changes in the “healthy” pattern. It provoked changes in consumption of some food groups in the “mixed” and “western” patterns: mainly decreases of unhealthy foods within the 2000 and increases of unhealthy foods within the 2005 surveys. Secular trend effects of EUR were similar to those within the 2005 survey. Excluding EUR reversed the direction of secular trends in consumption of several food groups in PER in the “mixed” and “western” patterns.ConclusionsEUR affected distribution of participants between dietary patterns within and between surveys, secular trends in food group consumption and amount of food consumed in all, but not in the “healthy” pattern. Our findings emphasize threats from energy under-reporting in dietary data analysis.     

Correlated miR-mRNA Expression Signatures of Mouse Hematopoietic Stem and Progenitor Cell Subsets Predict “Stemness” and “Myeloid” Interaction Networks

Several individual miRNAs (miRs) have been implicated as potent regulators of important processes during normal and malignant hematopoiesis. In addition, many miRs have been shown to fine-tune intricate molecular networks, in concert with other regulatory elements. In order to study hematopoietic networks as a whole, we first created a map of global miR expression during early murine hematopoiesis. Next, we determined the copy number per cell for each miR in each of the examined stem and progenitor cell types. As data is emerging indicating that miRs function robustly mainly when they are expressed above a certain threshold (∼100 copies per cell), our database provides a resource for determining which miRs are expressed at a potentially functional level in each cell type. Finally, we combine our miR expression map with matched mRNA expression data and external prediction algorithms, using a Bayesian modeling approach to create a global landscape of predicted miR-mRNA interactions within each of these hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell subsets. This approach implicates several interaction networks comprising a “stemness” signature in the most primitive hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) populations, as well as “myeloid” patterns associated with two branches of myeloid development.     

“Liking” as an early and editable draft of long-run affective value

Psychological and neural distinctions between the technical concepts of “liking” and “wanting” pose important problems for motivated choice for goods. Why could we “want” something that we do not “like,” or “like” something but be unwilling to exert effort to acquire it? Here, we suggest a framework for answering these questions through the medium of reinforcement learning. We consider “liking” to provide immediate, but preliminary and ultimately cancellable, information about the true, long-run worth of a good. Such initial estimates, viewed through the lens of what is known as potential-based shaping, help solve the temporally complex learning problems faced by animals.

What is the distinction between ’liking’ and ’wanting’? Why could we ’want’ something that we do not ’like,’ or ’like’ something but be unwilling to exert effort to acquire it? This Essay argues that the primary hedonic phenomenon called ’liking’ might solve the temporal credit assignment problem for learning that arises when true reinforcement values are available slowly or late.     

Women’s Longitudinal Patterns of Smoking during the Pre-Conception,Pregnancy and Postnatal Period: Evidence from the UK Infant Feeding Survey

BackgroundAn understanding of women’s longitudinal patterns of smoking during the pre-conception, pregnancy and postnatal period and the factors associated with these patterns could help better inform smoking cessation services and interventions.MethodsLatent class analysis (LCA) was used to empirically identify women’s smoking patterns in a sample of 10,768 mothers from the 2010 UK Infant Feeding Survey. Multinomial logistic regression was used to identify characteristics associated with these patterns.ResultsLCA identified five distinct smoking patterns during the pre-conception, pregnancy and postnatal period: “non-smokers” (74.1% of women); “pregnancy-inspired quitters” (10.2%); “persistent smokers” (10.1%); “temporary quitters” (4.4%); and postnatal quitters (1.1%). Smoking patterns varied markedly according to socio-demographic variables and parity. After adjusting for these variables, mothers who lived during pregnancy with a partner who smoked were more likely to be temporary quitters (aOR 2.64, 95% CI 1.74–3.99) or persistent smokers (aOR 3.32, 95% CI 2.34–4.72) than pregnancy-inspired quitters. Mothers who lived during pregnancy with someone else other than a partner who smoked were more likely to be persistent smokers (aOR 2.34, 95% CI 1.38–3.97) or postnatal quitters (aOR 2.97, 95% CI 1.07–8.24) than pregnancy-inspired quitters. Mothers given information on how their partner could stop smoking if they lived during pregnancy with a smoking partner were less likely to be persistent smokers (aOR 0.42, 95% CI 0.27–0.65) than pregnancy-inspired quitters.ConclusionHealth professionals should ask about smoking at every opportunity, and refer women who self-report as current smokers to an evidence based smoking cessation service.     

The Global Crisis of Malaria: Report on a Yale Conference

An international conference, “The Global Crisis of Malaria: Lessons of the Past and Future Prospects,” met at Yale University, November 7-9, 2008. The symposium was organized by Professor Frank Snowden and sponsored by the Provost’s office, the MacMillan Center, the Program in the History of Science and History of Medicine, and the Section of the History of Medicine at the Yale School of Medicine. It brought together experts on malaria from a variety of disciplines, countries, and experiences — physicians, research scientists, historians of medicine, public health officials, and representatives of several non-governmental organizations (NGOs). An underlying theme was that much could be gained from a big-picture examination across disciplinary frontiers of the contemporary public health problem caused by malaria. Particular features of the conference were its intense scrutiny of historical successes and failures in malaria control and its demonstration of the relevance of history to policy discussions in the field.     

Performance of Social Network Sensors during Hurricane Sandy

Information flow during catastrophic events is a critical aspect of disaster management. Modern communication platforms, in particular online social networks, provide an opportunity to study such flow and derive early-warning sensors, thus improving emergency preparedness and response. Performance of the social networks sensor method, based on topological and behavioral properties derived from the “friendship paradox”, is studied here for over 50 million Twitter messages posted before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We find that differences in users’ network centrality effectively translate into moderate awareness advantage (up to 26 hours); and that geo-location of users within or outside of the hurricane-affected area plays a significant role in determining the scale of such an advantage. Emotional response appears to be universal regardless of the position in the network topology, and displays characteristic, easily detectable patterns, opening a possibility to implement a simple “sentiment sensing” technique that can detect and locate disasters.     

Understanding Neighborhood Environment Related to Hong Kong Children’s Physical Activity: A Qualitative Study Using Nominal Group Technique

Background

Relationships between the neighborhood environment and children’s physical activity have been well documented in Western countries but are less investigated in ultra-dense Asian cities. The aim of this study was to identify the environmental facilitators and barriers of physical activity behaviors among Hong Kong Chinese children using nominal group technique.

Methods

Five nominal groups were conducted among 34 children aged 10–11 years from four types of neighborhoods varying in socio-economic status and walkability in Hong Kong. Environmental factors were generated by children in response to the question “What neighborhood environments do you think would increase or decrease your willingness to do physical activity?” Factors were prioritized in order of their importance to children’s physical activity.

Results

Sixteen unique environmental factors, which were perceived as the most important to children’s physical activity, were identified. Factors perceived as physical activity-facilitators included “Sufficient lighting”, “Bridge or tunnel”, “Few cars on roads”, “Convenient transportation”, “Subway station”, “Recreation grounds”, “Shopping malls with air conditioning”, “Fresh air”, “Interesting animals”, and “Perfume shop”. Factors perceived as physical activity-barriers included “People who make me feel unsafe”, “Crimes nearby”, “Afraid of being taken or hurt at night”, “Hard to find toilet in shopping mall”, “Too much noise”, and “Too many people in recreation grounds”.

Conclusions

Specific physical activity-related environmental facilitators and barriers, which are unique in an ultra-dense city, were identified by Hong Kong children. These initial findings can inform future examinations of the physical activity-environment relationship among children in Hong Kong and similar Asian cities.     

Biological trade and markets

Cooperation between organisms can often be understood, like trade between merchants, as a mutually beneficial exchange of services, resources or other ‘commodities’. Mutual benefits alone, however, are not sufficient to explain the evolution of trade-based cooperation. First, organisms may reject a particular trade if another partner offers a better deal. Second, while human trade often entails binding contracts, non-human trade requires unwritten ‘terms of contract’ that ‘self-stabilize’ trade and prevent cheating even if all traders strive to maximize fitness. Whenever trading partners can be chosen, market-like situations arise in nature that biologists studying cooperation need to account for. The mere possibility of exerting partner choice stabilizes many forms of otherwise cheatable trade, induces competition, facilitates the evolution of specialization and often leads to intricate forms of cooperation. We discuss selected examples to illustrate these general points and review basic conceptual approaches that are important in the theory of biological trade and markets. Comparing these approaches with theory in economics, it turns out that conventional models—often called ‘Walrasian’ markets—are of limited relevance to biology. In contrast, early approaches to trade and markets, as found in the works of Ricardo and Cournot, contain elements of thought that have inspired useful models in biology. For example, the concept of comparative advantage has biological applications in trade, signalling and ecological competition. We also see convergence between post-Walrasian economics and biological markets. For example, both economists and biologists are studying ‘principal–agent’ problems with principals offering jobs to agents without being sure that the agents will do a proper job. Finally, we show that mating markets have many peculiarities not shared with conventional economic markets. Ideas from economics are useful for biologists studying cooperation but need to be taken with caution.     

The Emergence of Three Human Development Clubs

We examine the joint distribution of levels of income per capita, life expectancy, and years of schooling across countries in 1960 and in 2000. In 1960 countries were clustered in two groups; a rich, highly educated, high longevity “developed” group and a poor, less educated, high mortality, “underdeveloped” group. By 2000 however we see the emergence of three groups; one underdeveloped group remaining near 1960 levels, a developed group with higher levels of education, income, and health than in 1960, and an intermediate group lying between these two. This finding is consistent with both the ideas of a new “middle income trap” that countries face even if they escape the “low income trap”, as well as the notion that countries which escaped the poverty trap form a temporary “transition regime” along their path to the “developed” group.     

Some personal and historical notes on the utility of “deep-etch” electron microscopy for making cell structure/function correlations

This brief essay talks up the advantages of metal replicas for electron microscopy and explains why they are still the best way to image frozen cells in the electron microscope. Then it explains our approach to freezing, namely the Van Harreveld trick of “slamming” living cells onto a supercold block of metal sprayed with liquid helium at −269ºC, and further talks up this slamming over the alternative of high-pressure freezing, which is much trickier but enjoys greater favor at the moment. This leads me to bemoan the fact that there are not more young investigators today who want to get their hands on electron microscopes and use our approach to get the most “true to life” views of cells out of them with a minimum of hassle. Finally, it ends with a few perspectives on my own career and concludes that, personally, I''m permanently stuck with the view of the “founding fathers” that cell ultrastructure will ultimately display and explain all of cell function, or as Palade said in his Nobel lecture,electron micrographs are “irresistible and half transparent … their meaning buried under only a few years of work,” and “reasonable working hypotheses are already suggested by the ultrastructural organization itself.”     

Temporal Characteristics of Online Syntactic Sentence Planning: An Event-Related Potential Study

During sentence production, linguistic information (semantics, syntax, phonology) of words is retrieved and assembled into a meaningful utterance. There is still debate on how we assemble single words into more complex syntactic structures such as noun phrases or sentences. In the present study, event-related potentials (ERPs) were used to investigate the time course of syntactic planning. Thirty-three volunteers described visually animated scenes using naming formats varying in syntactic complexity: from simple words (‘W’, e.g., “triangle”, “red”, “square”, “green”, “to fly towards”), to noun phrases (‘NP’, e.g., “the red triangle”, “the green square”, “to fly towards”), to a sentence (‘S’, e.g., “The red triangle flies towards the green square.”). Behaviourally, we observed an increase in errors and corrections with increasing syntactic complexity, indicating a successful experimental manipulation. In the ERPs following scene onset, syntactic complexity variations were found in a P300-like component (‘S’/‘NP’>‘W’) and a fronto-central negativity (linear increase with syntactic complexity). In addition, the scene could display two actions - unpredictable for the participant, as the disambiguation occurred only later in the animation. Time-locked to the moment of visual disambiguation of the action and thus the verb, we observed another P300 component (‘S’>‘NP’/‘W’). The data show for the first time evidence of sensitivity to syntactic planning within the P300 time window, time-locked to visual events critical of syntactic planning. We discuss the findings in the light of current syntactic planning views.     

Acute Alcohol Consumption Impairs Controlled but Not Automatic Processes in a Psychophysical Pointing Paradigm

Numerous studies have investigated the effects of alcohol consumption on controlled and automatic cognitive processes. Such studies have shown that alcohol impairs performance on tasks requiring conscious, intentional control, while leaving automatic performance relatively intact. Here, we sought to extend these findings to aspects of visuomotor control by investigating the effects of alcohol in a visuomotor pointing paradigm that allowed us to separate the influence of controlled and automatic processes. Six male participants were assigned to an experimental “correction” condition in which they were instructed to point at a visual target as quickly and accurately as possible. On a small percentage of trials, the target “jumped” to a new location. On these trials, the participants’ task was to amend their movement such that they pointed to the new target location. A second group of 6 participants were assigned to a “countermanding” condition, in which they were instructed to terminate their movements upon detection of target “jumps”. In both the correction and countermanding conditions, participants served as their own controls, taking part in alcohol and no-alcohol conditions on separate days. Alcohol had no effect on participants’ ability to correct movements “in flight”, but impaired the ability to withhold such automatic corrections. Our data support the notion that alcohol selectively impairs controlled processes in the visuomotor domain.