Are the birch trees in Southern England a source of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula</Emphasis> pollen for North London?

Birch pollen is highly allergenic. Knowledge of daily variations, atmospheric transport and source areas of birch pollen is important for exposure studies and for warnings to the public, especially for large cities such as London. Our results show that broad-leaved forests with high birch tree densities are located to the south and west of London. Bi-hourly Betula pollen concentrations for all the days included in the study, and for all available days with high birch pollen counts (daily average birch pollen counts >80 grains/m³), show that, on average, there is a peak between 1400 hours and 1600 hours. Back-trajectory analysis showed that, on days with high birch pollen counts (n = 60), 80% of air masses arriving at the time of peak diurnal birch pollen count approached North London from the south in a 180 degree arc from due east to due west. Detailed investigations of three Betula pollen episodes, with distinctly different diurnal patterns compared to the mean daily cycle, were used to illustrate how night-time maxima (2200–0400 hours) in Betula pollen counts could be the result of transport from distant sources or long transport times caused by slow moving air masses. We conclude that the Betula pollen recorded in North London could originate from sources found to the west and south of the city and not just trees within London itself. Possible sources outside the city include Continental Europe and the Betula trees within the broad-leaved forests of Southern England.     

Integration of flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology: analysis of their spatial and temporal coherence in Germany (1992–1999)

We studied the possibility of integrating flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology in Germany. Data were analyzed for three pollen types (Betula, Poaceae, Artemisia) at 51 stations with pollen traps, and corresponding phenological flowering dates for 400 adjacent stations (< 25 km) for the years 1992–1993 and 1997–1999. The spatial and temporal coherence of these data sets was investigated by comparing start and peak of the pollen season with local minima and means of plant flowering. Our study revealed that start of birch pollen season occurred on average 5.7 days earlier than local birch flowering. For mugwort and grass, the pollen season started on average after local flowering was observed; mugwort pollen was found 4.8 days later and grass pollen season started almost on the same day (0.6 days later) as local flowering. Whereas the peak of the birch pollen season coincided with the mean flowering dates (0.4 days later), the pollen peaks of the other two species took place much later. On average, the peak of mugwort pollen occurred 15.4 days later than mean local flowering, the peak of grass pollen catches followed 22.6 days after local flowering. The study revealed a great temporal divergence between pollen and flowering dates with an irregular spatial pattern across Germany. Not all pollen catches could be explained by local vegetation flowering. Possible reasons include long-distance transport, pollen contributions of other than phenologically observed species and methodological constraints. The results suggest that further research is needed before using flowering dates in phenology to extrapolate pollen counts.     

Long distance pollen transport cause problems for determining the timing of birch pollen season in Fennoscandia by using phenological observations

The male flowering and leaf bud burst of birch take place almost simultaneously, suggesting that the observations of leaf bud burst could be used to determine the timing of birch pollen release. However, long‐distance transport of birch pollen before the onset of local flowering may complicate the utilization of phenological observations in pollen forecasting.

We compared the timing of leaf bud burst of silver birch with the timing of the stages of birch pollen season during an eight year period (1997–2004) at five sites in Finland. The stages of the birch pollen season were defined using four different thresholds: 1) the first date of the earliest three‐day period with airborne birch pollen counts exceeding 10 grains m^?3 air; and the dates when the accumulated pollen sum reaches 2) 5%; 3) 50% and 4) 95% of the annual total. Atmospheric modelling was used to determine the source areas for the observed long‐distance transported pollen, and the exploitability of phenological observations in pollen forecasting was evaluated.

Pair‐wise comparisons of means indicate that the timing of leaf bud burst fell closest to the date when the accumulated pollen sum reached 5% of the annual total, and did not differ significantly from it at any site (p<0.05; Student‐Newman‐Keuls test). It was found that the timing of leaf bud burst of silver birch overlaps with the first half of the main birch pollen season. However, phenological observations alone do not suffice to determine the timing of the main birch pollen season because of long‐distance transport of birch pollen.     

Parameterization of the birch pollen diurnal cycle

The purpose of this study was to investigate the patterns of birch pollen counts over a diurnal cycle and propose a parameterization that is useful for inclusion into operational and research short- and long-term modeling for birch pollen atmospheric transport and deposition at different spatial scales. The evaluation of patterns of diurnal cycles on monthly and interannual bases has been done based on analysis of a 26-year time series of birch pollen counts from the Danish pollen measurement site in Copenhagen. The suggested parameterization, based on a simple trigonometric function, includes dependencies on the time of birch pollen maximum and minimum occurrence on a diurnal cycle, averaged concentration at the end of the previous day, and time shift.     

Diurnal Variation of Airborne Birch Pollen at Some Sites in Sweden

A study of the diurnal variations of airborne birch pollen in Sweden showed that the effect of rainfall on pollen counts is more complex than was previously thought. Most of the pollen counting sites in Sweden showed the same pattern of diurnal variations as described by other observers, i. e. lower concentrations during the early morning and a maximum in the middle of the day or early in the evening. Especially in one pollen counting site, viz, in Östersund, near the geographical centre of Sweden, we noted many occasions when the concentration of birch pollen increased concurrently with the beginning of heavy showers of rain. A few hours later the number of pollen grains decreased, when the pollen was washed out of the air. We noted great differences in the occurrence of such pollen peaks between different parts of the country. The phenomenon was more frequent in Östersund than in Stockholm, maybe due to the differing topography. Heavy rains seem to be more influential if large amounts of pollen have previously been brought high up into the air, e.g. by warm air or by long-distance transport of pollen, and this should be considered when making pollen forecasts.     

Modelling analysis of source regions of long-range transported birch pollen that influences allergenic seasons in Lithuania

This study analyses the spatial and temporal distribution of regional and long-range transported birch (Betula L.) pollen in Lithuania and the neighbouring countries. The potential long-range transport cases of birch pollen in Lithuania were analysed for the whole period of available observations, 2004–2007. The birch pollen was recorded at three measurement stations in Lithuania by using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps. The phenological observations in Lithuania were also used for the detection of potential long-range transport-induced episodes. Two variants of the regional and continental scale atmospheric dispersion model SILAM (Lagrangian and Eulerian) in an adjoint mode (used for inverse dispersion modelling and data assimilation), and the trajectory model HYSPLIT were employed to evaluate the source origins of the observed pollen. During four seasons in 2004–2007, we found in total 24 cases, during which remarkable pollen concentrations were recorded before the local flowering season. According to modelling, most of these were originated from the sources outside Lithuania: Latvia, southern Sweden, Denmark, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova, possibly, also coastal regions of Germany and Poland. Two episodes were attributed to local early-flowering birch trees. The spatial and temporal patterns of the long-range transport of early pollen to Lithuania were found out to be highly variable; the predicted source regions for the cases considered were similar only for some dates in 2004 and 2006. During the analysed period, we found both cases, in which the predictions of the SILAM model variants and those of the HYSPLIT model were similar, and cases, in which there were substantial differences. In general, for complicated atmospheric circulation patterns the model predictions can be drastically different, with a tendency of trajectory model to fail reproducing the key episode features.     

Source areas and long-range transport of pollen from continental land to Tenerife (Canary Islands)

The Canary Islands, due to their geographical position, constitute an adequate site for the study of long-range pollen transport from the surrounding land masses. In this study, we analyzed airborne pollen counts at two sites: Santa Cruz de Tenerife (SCO), at sea level corresponding to the marine boundary layer (MBL), and Izaña at 2,367 m.a.s.l. corresponding to the free troposphere (FT), for the years 2006 and 2007. We used three approaches to describe pollen transport: (1) a classification of provenances with an ANOVA test to describe pollen count differences between sectors; (2) a study of special events of high pollen concentrations, taking into consideration the corresponding meteorological synoptic pattern responsible for transport and back trajectories; and (3) a source–receptor model applied to a selection of the pollen taxa to show pollen source areas. Our results indicate several extra-regional pollen transport episodes to Tenerife. The main provenances were: (1) the Mediterranean region, especially the southern Iberian Peninsula and Morocco, through the trade winds in the MBL. These episodes were characterized by the presence of pollen from trees (Casuarina, Olea, Quercus perennial and deciduous types) mixed with pollen from herbs (Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae and Poaceae wild type). (2) The Saharan sector, through transport at the MBL level carrying pollen principally from herbs (Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, Cyperaceae and Poaceae wild type) and, in one case, Casuarina pollen, uplifted to the free troposphere. And (3) the Sahel, characterized by low pollen concentrations of Arecaceae, Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, Cyperaceae and Poaceae wild type in sporadic episodes. This research shows that sporadic events of long-range pollen transport need to be taken into consideration in Tenerife as possible responsible agents in respiratory allergy episodes. In particular, it is estimated that 89–97% of annual counts of the highly allergenous Olea originates from extra-regional sources in southern Iberia and northern Africa.     

Sources,impact and exchange of early-spring birch pollen in the Moscow region and Finland

The paper presents an assessment of birch pollen seasons in Finland and Russia. The re-analysis covered the period from 1994 to 2005 and was focused on suspected long-range transport events that were recorded both in Moscow and at several Finnish sites. In order to trace the origin of airborne pollen before the onset of local pollination, we used both aerobiological and phenological observations combined with forward and adjoint (inverse) dispersion model simulations. It is shown that, although the Moscow region is surrounded by extensive birch forests, it still receives substantial amounts of foreign pollen before local pollination. In the Moscow region, the sources of long-range-transported pollen are in the south and south-west, sometimes even in the east. In Finland, there are frequently cases, before the local flowering season, in which Finnish territory receives Russian pollen; however in the opposite direction, from Finland to the Moscow region, no transport episodes were unequivocally registered. Analysis of the end of the seasons was more problematic, due to contributions to pollen observations from local sources; this results in difficulties in the reliable identification of the long-range transport episodes. Apart from its short-term effects on the pollen seasons, long-range transport can have substantial impacts on the exchange of genetic material within Europe. A quick atmospheric pathway for gene transport can be important for adaptation of plants to a changing climate.     

Synoptic and meteorological characterisation of olive pollen transport in Córdoba province (south-western Spain)

The main goal of the present study was to provide a detailed analysis of olive pollen transport dynamics in the province of Córdoba (south-western Spain) by applying back-trajectory analysis. Pollen data from 2006 and 2007 were analysed at four monitoring sites: Córdoba city in the centre of the province, Baena and Priego de Córdoba located in the south, and El Cabril reserve (Hornachuelos Natural Park) in the north. Particular attention was paid to nine episodes of high pollen counts. Synoptic surface maps were used, and kinematic back-trajectories (3D) were computed using the hybrid single particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory model (HYSPLIT) at 500 m above ground level, run with a time-step of 6 h over a period of 36 h. Findings were analysed in conjunction with daily and bi-hourly airborne pollen data, field phenological data and hourly surface meteorological data recorded at nearby stations: temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind direction and wind speed. The results identified two pollen source areas over the Córdoba province, the largest one located in the south, affecting Baena, Priego de Córdoba and Córdoba city, and one smaller located in the west, which determines mainly the pollen cycle over the north of the province, El Cabril. In addition, two air mass circulations were found, one coming from the south and crossing the main olive pollen sources very close to the surface and being frequently associated with higher pollen counts, and the other coming from the west and, in the episodes investigated, influencing mainly the north of the province.     

Prediction of birch airborne pollen counts by examining male catkin numbers in Hokkaido,northern Japan

Birch pollen is a very common cause of pollinosis in Hokkaido, northern Japan. Birch airborne pollen concentrations vary each year; hence, the development of a method for predicting annual airborne pollen concentration is very important in preventing widespread symptoms of pollinosis. In the current study, we investigated airborne pollen counts and male catkin numbers (male flower index) of birch in four cities of Hokkaido between 2002 and 2008. Airborne pollen surveys were conducted using Durham’s sampler, and male catkin numbers determined for three major birch species (Betula platyphylla var. japonica, B. emanii, and B. maximowicziana). We found an annual variation in male flower index for all the three birch species investigated. This variation worked in combination with the amount of precipitation during the pollen season to influence total birch pollen counts. In conclusion, the male catkin numbers of three major birch species reliably predict airborne pollen counts in Hokkaido, but only when the effect of precipitation during pollen season is considered.     

The contribution of long-distance transport to the presence of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ambrosia</Emphasis> pollen in central northern Italy

Ragweed is an allergenic weed of public health concern in several European countries. In Italy ragweed occurs prevalently in north-north-eastern regions, where sensitization is increasing. Because of the small diameter of pollen grains, ragweed pollen is often involved in episodes of long-range transport, as already shown in central Italy. The objective of this study was to evaluate the extent of such transport by comparing pollen and meteorological data for two northern Italian cities (Parma and Mantova) with data from Pistoia and Florence in central Italy. In 2002 and 2004 peaks in ragweed pollen levels were detected in these four cities on the same day, and concentrations of the grains were above clinical thresholds. Weather-map analysis and computation of back-trajectories showed that air masses from eastern Europe might carry ragweed pollen to a wide area of central and northern Italy. These findings suggest that episodes of long-range transport of ragweed pollen could be clinically relevant, resulting in sensitization of a large number of people. The results might provide a basis for monitoring and forecasting periods of long-distance transport with the objective of reducing their effects on allergic patients.     

Birch pollen production,transport and deposition for the period 1984–1993 at Kevo,northernmost Finland

Summary Betula pollen production and flowering, pollen transport and pollen deposition are considered for the mountain birch region of northern Finland for the ten-year period 1984–1993. The most abundant flowering year was 1989 and, after that, 1985. In these years the highest values were also recorded for pollen in the air. There is a significant correlation between the amount of pollen released and the thermal sum of the previous year. In terms of pollen deposition the peak years were 1989 and 1986. The correlation between the amount of pollen in the air and that being deposited on the ground is also statisticaly significant. It is evident that some birch pollen is already present in the air before local flowering begins and that, in some years, this non-local pollen can account for more than 20% of the yearly total. This preflowering proportion was highest in 1985 and 1993, the latter being a prolific flowering year in the south of the country. There is a clear relationship between the proportion of the non-local pollen in the air and the proportion ofBetula pubescens/pendula type pollen deposited on the ground and, conversely, there is a significant correlation between the amount of local pollen in the air and the amount ofBetula tortuosa plusB. nana type pollen being deposited on the ground. The questions both of the viability of this long-distance pollen and of its ability to cause allergic reactions are considered. An assessment is also made of the degree to which fossil birch pollen assemblages can be realistically interpreted in terms of local vegetation if a varying proportion of the same pollen type is non-local.     

A satellite-based map of onset of birch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula</Emphasis>) flowering in Norway

Birch (Betula pubescens L.) is by far the most common deciduous tree in Norway and birch forests define the forest line both northwards and upwards. Because of its mountainous topography, long fjords, and long length from north to south, Norway is climatically and ecologically very diverse. Therefore, developing pollen forecasts in Norway is a challenging task. In this study we use MODIS-NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) satellite data with 250 m spatial resolution and 16-days time resolution for the period 2000–2007, and birch pollen counts from ten Burkad traps distributed throughout Norway, to characterize the onset of birch flowering in Norway. Four of the seven trap stations with long-term series show significant values at the 5% level or better between the MODIS-NDVI defined onset and the date when the annual accumulated birch pollen sum reaches 2.5% of the annual total. A map of Norway that shows the eight-year mean (2000–2007) onset of birch flowering was produced. It reveals large differences in the timing of the onset of birch flowering along the north–south and altitude gradients. The map provides useful general information that can be utilized by the Norwegian pollen forecast service. This study shows that remote sensing is a useful tool for not only characterizing the onset of the birch pollen season but also revealing regional differences not easily detected by pollen stations alone.     

Airborne birch and oak pollen grains and birch pollen allergens at a common sampling station in Stockholm

In the present study, the airborne concentrations of birch and oak pollen grains and birch pollen allergens have been recorded in samples from a common sampling station in Stockholm. The sampling period was between April 22^nd and May 31^st 2003. The objectives were to evaluate if analysis of allergen particles in parallel with pollen grains would be relevant to aid subjects suffering from pollinosis. Days with low birch pollen counts had relatively high nominal allergen concentrations in the beginning of the sampling period. The birch pollen grain concentration peaks, during the dry pollination culmination interval in the middle of the period, were associated with correspondingly lower nominal concentrations of allergens than grains. At the end of the sampling period very high nominal amounts of allergen appeared, as reflected by high concentrations of oak pollen grains. The high allergen concentrations were obtained as a result of inherent cross‐reactivity of anti‐ Bet v 1 antibodies with Que a antigens, which are immunologically analogous with Bet v 1. Allergen concentrations increased and decreased after light and heavy rain, respectively. Results obtained indicate that adding a pollen count forecast with allergen concentration data should aid pollen allergic subjects to avoid particulate allergens which might be expected to penetrate more easily than pollen grains into indoor environments.     

Towards numerical forecasting of long-range air transport of birch pollen: theoretical considerations and a feasibility study

This paper considers the feasibility of numerical simulation of large-scale atmospheric transport of allergenic pollen. It is shown that at least small grains, such as birch pollen, can stay in the air for a few days, which leads to a characteristic scale for their transport of ∼10³ km. The analytical consideration confirmed the applicability of existing dispersion models to the pollen transport task and provided some reference parameterizations of the key processes, including dry and wet deposition. The results were applied to the Finnish Emergency Dispersion Modelling System (SILAM), which was then used to analyze pollen transport to Finland during spring time in 2002–2004. Solutions of the inverse problems (source apportionment) showed that the main source areas, from which the birch flowering can affect Finnish territory, are the Baltic States, Russia, Germany, Poland, and Sweden—depending on the particular meteorological situation. Actual forecasting of pollen dispersion required a birch forest map of Europe and a unified European model for birch flowering, both of which were nonexistent before this study. A map was compiled from the national forest inventories of Western Europe and satellite images of broadleaf forests. The flowering model was based on the mean climatological dates for the onset of birch forests rather than conditions of any specific year. Utilization of probability forecasting somewhat alleviated the problem, but the development of a European-wide flowering model remains the main obstacle for real-time forecasting of large-scale pollen distribution.     

The relationship between birch pollen,air pollution and weather types and their effect on antihistamine purchase in two Swedish cities

Exposure to elevated air pollution levels can aggravate pollen allergy symptoms. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between airborne birch (Betula) pollen, urban air pollutants NO₂, O₃ and PM₁₀ and their effects on antihistamine demand in Gothenburg and Malmö, Sweden, 2006–2012. Further, the influence of large-scale weather pattern on pollen-/pollution-related risk, using Lamb weather types (LWTs), was analysed. Daily LWTs were obtained by comparing the atmospheric pressure over a 16-point grid system over southern Sweden (scale ~3000 km). They include two non-directional types, cyclonic (C) and anticyclonic (A) and eight directional types depending on the wind direction (N, NE, E…). Birch pollen levels were exceptionally high under LWTs E and SE in both cities. Furthermore, LWTs with dry and moderately calm meteorological character (A, NE, E, SE) were associated with strongly elevated air pollution (NO₂ and PM₁₀) in Gothenburg. For most weather situations in both cities, simultaneously high birch pollen together with high air pollution had larger over-the-counter (OTC) sales of antihistamines than situations with high birch pollen alone. LWTs NE, E, SE and S had the highest OTC sales in both cities. In Gothenburg, the city with a higher load of both birch pollen and air pollution, the higher OTC sales were especially obvious and indicate an increased effect on allergic symptoms from air pollution. Furthermore, Gothenburg LWTs A, NE, E and SE were associated with high pollen and air pollution levels and thus classified as high-risk weather types. In Malmö, corresponding high-risk LWTs were NE, E, SE and S. Furthermore, occurrence of high pollen and air pollutants as well as OTC sales correlated strongly with vapour pressure deficit and temperature in Gothenburg (much less so in Malmö). This provides evidence that the combination of meteorological properties associated with LWTs can explain high levels of birch pollen and air pollution. Our study shows that LWTs represent a useful tool for integrated daily air quality forecasting/warning.     

The Pannonian plain as a source of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ambrosia</Emphasis> pollen in the Balkans

This study aims to find likely sources of Ambrosia pollen recorded during 2007 at five pollen-monitoring sites in central Europe: Novi Sad, Ruma, Negotin and Nis (Serbia) and Skopje (Macedonia). Ambrosia plants start flowering early in the morning and so Ambrosia pollen grains recorded during the day are likely to be from a local source. Conversely, Ambrosia pollen grains recorded at night or very early in the morning may have arrived via long-range transport. Ambrosia pollen counts were analysed in an attempt to find possible sources of the pollen and to identify Ambrosia pollen episodes suitable for further investigation using back-trajectory analysis. Diurnal variations and the magnitude of Ambrosia pollen counts during the 2007 Ambrosia pollen season showed that Novi Sad and Ruma (Pannonian Plain) and to a lesser degree Negotin (Balkans) were located near to sources of Ambrosia pollen. Mean bi-hourly Ambrosia pollen concentrations peaked during the middle of the day, and concentrations at these sites were notably higher than at Nis and Skopje. Three episodes were selected for further analysis using back-trajectory analysis. Back-trajectories showed that air masses brought Ambrosia pollen from the north to Nis and, on one occasion, to Skopje (Balkans) during the night and early morning after passing to the east of Novi Sad and Ruma during the previous day. The results of this study identified the southern part of the Pannonian Plain around Novi Sad and Ruma as being a potential source region for Ambrosia pollen recorded at Nis and Skopje in the Balkans.     

Exploring the spatio-temporal relationship between two key aeroallergens and meteorological variables in the United Kingdom

Constructing accurate predictive models for grass and birch pollen in the air, the two most important aeroallergens, for areas with variable climate conditions such as the United Kingdom, require better understanding of the relationships between pollen count in the air and meteorological variables. Variations in daily birch and grass pollen counts and their relationship with daily meteorological variables were investigated for nine pollen monitoring sites for the period 2000–2010 in the United Kingdom. An active pollen count sampling method was employed at each of the monitoring stations to sample pollen from the atmosphere. The mechanism of this method is based on the volumetric spore traps of Hirst design (Hirst in Ann Appl Biol 39(2):257–265, 1952). The pollen season (start date, finish date) for grass and birch were determined using a first derivative method. Meteorological variables such as daily rainfall; maximum, minimum and average temperatures; cumulative sum of Sunshine duration; wind speed; and relative humidity were related to the grass and birch pollen counts for the pre-peak, post peak and the entire pollen season. The meteorological variables were correlated with the pollen count data for the following temporal supports: same-day, 1-day prior, 1-day mean prior, 3-day mean prior, 7-day mean prior. The direction of influence (positive/negative) of meteorological variables on pollen count varied for birch and grass, and also varied when the pollen season was treated as a whole season, or was segmented into the pre-peak and post-peak seasons. Maximum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of grass pollen in the atmosphere. Both maximum temperature (pre-peak) and sunshine produced a strong positive correlation, and rain produced a strong negative correlation with grass pollen count in the air. Similarly, average temperature, wind speed and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of birch pollen in the air. Both wind speed and rain produced a negative correlation with birch pollen count in the air and average temperature produced a positive correlation.     

Long-distance transport ofBetula pollen grains and allergic symptoms

Summary An example of the potential importance of air masses as carriers of aero-allergens from distant source areas is provided. Considerable amount ofBetula pollen is relatively often transported to Fennoscandia before the local birch flowering period, mainly by southeastern air masses from eastern part of central Europe. Although the distance and the transport time in some cases can be extensive, the pollen grains seem to cause allergic reactions among sensitive persons.A comparison between the clinical results andBetula pollen counts from the time before the local flowering season in Stockholm in 1989 is presented.     

Long-term and short-term forecast models for Poaceae (grass) pollen in Poznań, Poland,constructed using regression analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than 10 years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994 to 2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within two days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1–4 when forecasting variations in daily average grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006, respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.