Climate change, conservation and management: an assessment of the peer-reviewed scientific journal literature

Recent reviews of the conservation literature indicate that significant biases exist in the published literature regarding the regions, ecosystems and species that have been examined by researchers. Despite the global threat of climatic change, similar biases may be occurring within the sub-discipline of climate-change ecology. Here we hope to foster critical thought and discussion by considering the directions taken by conservation researchers when addressing climate change. To form a quantitative basis for our perspective, we assessed 248 papers from the climate change literature that considered the conservation management of biodiversity and ecosystems. We found that roughly half of the studies considered climate change in isolation from other threatening processes. We also found that the majority of surveyed scientific publications were conducted in the temperate forests of Europe and North America. Regions such as Latin America that are rich in biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climate change were not well represented. We caution that such biases in research effort may be distracting our attention away from vulnerable regions, ecosystems and species. Specifically we suggest that the under-representation of research from regions low in adaptive capacity and rich in biodiversity requires international collaboration by those experienced in climate-change research, with researchers from less wealthy nations who are familiar with local issues, ecosystems and species. Furthermore, we caution that the propensity of ecologists to work in essentially unmodified ecosystems may fundamentally hamper our ability to make useful recommendations in a world that is experiencing significant global change.     

Climate change and coral reef connectivity

This review assesses and predicts the impacts that rapid climate change will have on population connectivity in coral reef ecosystems, using fishes as a model group. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development, potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier reef-seeking behaviour. Depending on the spatial arrangement of reefs, the expectation would be a reduction in dispersal distances and the spatial scale of connectivity. Small increase in temperature might enhance the number of larvae surviving the pelagic phase, but larger increases are likely to reduce reproductive output and increase larval mortality. Changes to ocean currents could alter the dynamics of larval supply and changes to planktonic productivity could affect how many larvae survive the pelagic stage and their condition at settlement; however, these patterns are likely to vary greatly from place-to-place and projections of how oceanographic features will change in the future lack sufficient certainty and resolution to make robust predictions. Connectivity could also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effects of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. Changes to the spatial and temporal scales of connectivity have implications for the management of coral reef ecosystems, especially the design and placement of marine-protected areas. The size and spacing of protected areas may need to be strategically adjusted if reserve networks are to retain their efficacy in the future.     

Climate change, phenology and species detectability in a monitoring scheme

The knowledge of the state of biodiversity on the globe is based on a large number of monitoring schemes. Quite often the results of these schemes are sensitive to the timing of monitoring due to the phenology of species, which in turn may affect the detectability of species during censuses. As global warming has been shown to cause changes in phenology, there is an increasing risk that species detectability will be altered if the timing of monitoring is not adapted to this change. I tested how sensitive species detectability is to the timing of censuses and whether there are potential climate-driven temporal changes in the detectability of 73 Finnish land bird species monitored using single-visit line-transects in 1987–2010. This was done by investigating seasonal and annual patterns in the proportion of birds in the main belt and those detected by displaying activity. Over 20 of the study species showed significant changes in detectability within the census season. However, only three species showed a significant trend in annual detectability. According to multi-species analyses there was a slight but significant increasing trend in the proportion of displaying birds and a slight decreasing trend in the proportion of birds in the main belt. However, the observed species-specific annual changes in displaying activity or in proportion of birds in main belt were not associated with the observed population trends of species during the same period. Nevertheless, the findings highlight a strong potential risk that species detectability can change if climate change escalates in the future. I recommend researchers to investigate how sensitive their monitoring systems are for phenological changes and prepare tools for taking potential changes in detectability into account.     

Climate change and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales

In recent years there have been several spells of high temperatures providing analogues for the conditions that might become more common as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Statistical models were developed of the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures and these were then used to provide estimates of the possible effects of future warmer summers. Routinely collected data on the number of reported cases of food poisoning were analysed for the years 1982–1991. Regression analysis was used to establish the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures of the same and the previous month. Published scenarios for future temperatures were applied to these statistical models to provide estimates of the possible impacts of warmer conditions. The monthly incidence of food poisoning was found to be significantly associated with the temperature of the same and of the previous month with the latter having the stronger effect. Using published data on the relationship between reported and actual numbers of cases of food poisoning, it is estimated that annually there might be an additional 179 000 cases of food poisoning by the year 2050 as a result of climate change. The observed relationship with the same month's temperature underlines the need for improvements in storage, preparation and hygiene close to the point of consumption. However, there was a much stronger relationship with the temperature of the previous month, indicating the importance of conditions earlier in the food production process. Improvements in areas such as animal husbandry and slaughtering may also be necessary to avoid the adverse effects of a warmer climate.     

A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland

Impact indicators are systems/organisms, the vitality of which alters in response to changes in environmental condition. The indicators assessed in this review fall within the impact category of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. Instrumental records have shown unequivocal changes in climatic conditions over the past 30 years at a global level but impact indicators allow these changes to be monitored at a finer resolution. Our main aim was to review sets of indicators of climate change currently used in various countries and to make recommendations for their use in the Irish environment. We review a preliminary set of climate change impact indicators in five sectors: agriculture; plant and animal distribution patterns; phenology; palaeoecology and human health. Currently, the most effective impact indicators of climate change have proved to be phenological observations of tree developmental stages. The strongest factor limiting the use of indicators is the lack of long-term data sets from which a climatic signal can be extracted.     

Climate change and hydrological regime in arid lands: Impacts of dams on the plant diversity,vegetation structure and soil in Saudi Arabia

As the direct effects of climate change on the hydrological regime, Saudi Arabia has constructed more than 522 dams of various capacities as part of economic and environmental development. The study aims to assess the impact of dams on plant diversity, vegetation structure and soil in Saudi Arabia. Thirty-five stands were selected from the dams of different sizes of Saudi Arabia. Vegetation samples were established before (upstream) and after (downstream) the dam, and at the undammed (unaffected by the dam) to compare species diversity in the dam sites and undammed sites and to document the potential effects of dams on vegetation structure. A total of 151 plant species belonging to 36 families have been recorded. The vegetation associations are essentially shrubby with widespread annuals. Six novel associations were identified with the application of TWINSPAN, DCA, and CCA programs. They were named after the characteristic species as follows: VG I: Acacia gerrardii-Caralluma retrospiciens; VGII: Acacia tortilis-Maerua oblongifolia; VGIII: Lycium shawii-Farsetia aegyptiaca; VG IV: Farsetia stylosa-Cornulaca monocantha; VG V: Suaeda aegyptiaca-Salsola imbricata-Prosopis farcta and VGVI: Xanthium strumarium-Ochradenus baccatus. These plant communities are evaluated and discussed according to their floristic structure, vegetation diversity and edaphic variables. The riparian or streamside zones upstream and downstream that are periodically flooded contain highly diverse plant communities that are structured by flooding, which creates disturbance and acts as a dispersal mechanism for plants than undammed sites.     

气候变化对鸟类影响：长期研究的意义

过去一个多世纪全球气候发生了明显变化,地球表面温度正在逐渐变暖。已有大量研究结果表明,鸟类已经在种群动态变化、生活史特性以及地理分布范围等方面对全球气候变化作出了相应的反应。根据全球范围内气候变化对鸟类影响的研究资料,尤其是北美和欧洲的一些长期研究项目的成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类分布范围、物候、繁殖和种群动态变化等方面的可能影响。这些长期研究项目为探讨气候变化在个体和种群的水平上如何长时间地影响鸟类提供了独特的机会,对未来中国鸟类学研究也会有所裨益。     

Climate change causes rapid collapse of a keystone shrub from insular Alpine ecosystems

Increasing species regression speeds are one of the consequences of global warming, which affect both rare and abundant species. However, long-term monitoring data are rarely available to understand the effects of global warming. Alpine ecosystems on islands are some of the most unique in terms of species composition around the world, with high proportions of endemics. Yet, they are some of the most threatened by climate change. In such areas, global warming causes the invasion of other species that move upwards from ecosystems at lower elevations, which exacerbates climate change impact on these areas. Obtaining fine-scale data on decline rates in keystone species in these areas is essential to understand the degradation processes underway in high mountain systems. This study uses historical aerial images to analyse at a fine-scale the rate of decline of a keystone endemic species, Spartocytisus supranubius (L. f.) Christ ex G. Kunkel, in Tenerife (Canary Islands). Fifty plots were randomly selected in Teide National Park to evaluate the area occupied by living individuals of this species using image segmentation techniques. We conclude that the dominant species in this area, S. supranubius, underwent a mean decline over 32 years between 28.7 and 41.0, depending on whether we consider the observed or interpolated data. Our results suggest that we are facing a possible collapse of the broom and allow us to propose listing this species as vulnerable, according to the IUCN criteria of threatened species. The regression in coverage was negatively correlated with temperature and positively with precipitation.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Climate change‐associated trends in net biomass change are age dependent in western boreal forests of Canada

The impacts of climate change on forest net biomass change are poorly understood but critical for predicting forest's contribution to the global carbon cycle. Recent studies show climate change‐associated net biomass declines in mature forest plots. The representativeness of these plots for regional forests, however, remains uncertain because we lack an assessment of whether climate change impacts differ with forest age. Using data from plots of varying ages from 17 to 210 years, monitored from 1958 to 2011 in western Canada, we found that climate change has little effect on net biomass change in forests ≤ 40 years of age due to increased growth offsetting increased mortality, but has led to large decreases in older forests due to increased mortality accompanying little growth gain. Our analysis highlights the need to incorporate forest age profiles in examining past and projecting future forest responses to climate change.     

Effects of constant and fluctuating incubation temperatures on hatching success and hatchling traits in the diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) in the context of the warming climate

As global temperatures continue to rise, so too will the nest temperatures of many species of turtles. Yet for most turtle species, including the estuarine diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin), there is limited information on embryonic sensitivity to elevated temperature. We incubated eggs of M. terrapin at three, mean temperatures (31, 34, 37 °C) under two thermal exposure regimes (constant or semi-naturally fluctuating temperature) and measured hatching success, developmental rate, and hatchling size. Hatching success was 100% at 31 °C and 67% at 34 °C, respectively; at 37 °C, all eggs failed early in the incubation period. These values were unaffected by exposure regime. The modeled LT₅₀ (temperature that was lethal to 50% of the test population) was 34.0 °C in the constant and 34.2 °C in the fluctuating thermal regime, reflecting a steep decline in survival between 33 and 35 °C. Hatchlings having been incubated at a constant 34 °C hatched sooner than those incubated at 31 °C under either constant or fluctuating temperature. Hatchlings were smaller in straight carapace length (CL) and width after having been incubated at 34 °C compared to 31 °C. Larger (CL) hatchlings resulted from fluctuating temperature conditions relative to constant temperature conditions, regardless of mean temperature. Based upon recent temperatures in natural nests, the M. terrapin population studied here appears to possess resiliency to several degrees of elevated mean nest temperatures, beyond which, embryonic mortality will likely sharply increase. When considered within the mosaic of challenges that Maryland's M. terrapin face as the climate warms, including ongoing habitat losses due to sea level rise and impending thermal impacts on bioenergetics and offspring sex ratios, a future increase in embryonic mortality could be a critical factor for a population already experiencing ecological and physiological challenges due to climate change.     

Climate change threatens on endangered relict Serbian spruce

The increase in length and severity of drought events predicted for South-Eastern Europe are expected to engender important changes to remaining native forests. To make informed management decisions promoting their conservation, it is important to better understand their responses to climate and environmental disturbances.In this study, we analyze growth responses over a network of 15 sites of Serbian spruce (Picea omorika), an endemic relict conifer species of the Balkan region — with a natural range restricted to the canyon of the Drina river at the border between Serbia and Bosnia Herzegovina — that has already shown signs of decline and dieback likely induced by increasing temperature and drought.Tree-ring analyses spanning the common period from 1974 to 2016 have shown a strong growth reduction and highlighted an increasing negative growth response to summer drought over the last 30–40 years. The strength of the response differed among individuals and sites, where younger trees and those growing at lower altitude suffered more from drought.Management practices oriented at reducing drought impact, such as thinning to reduce competition for water resources and enhance survival of seedlings, together with assisted natural regeneration and migration to more suitable habitats, are recommended for the conservation of this relict species. The measures are even more necessary considering that this species is more vulnerable than others due to its weak capacity to naturally regenerate and compete.     

National and European perspectives on climate change sensitivity of the habitats directive characteristic plant species

The main goal of the Habitats Directive, a key document for European conservation, is to maintain a ‘favourable’ conservation status of selected species and habitats. In the face of near-future climatic change this goal may become difficult to achieve. Here, we evaluate the sensitivity to climate change of 84 plant species that characterise the Danish habitat types included in the Habitats Directive. A fuzzy bioclimatic envelope model, linking European and Northwest African species’ distribution data with climate, was used to predict climatically suitable areas for these species in year 2100 under two-climate change scenarios. Climate sensitivity was evaluated at both Danish and European scales to provide an explicit European perspective on the impacts predicted for Denmark. In all 69–99% of the species were predicted to become negatively affected by climate change at either scale. Application of international Red List criteria showed that 43–55% and 17–69% would become vulnerable in Denmark and Europe, respectively. Northwest African atlas data were used to improve the ecological accuracy of the future predictions. For comparison, using only European data added 0–7% to these numbers. No species were predicted to become extinct in Europe, but 4–7% could be lost from Denmark. Some species were predicted to become positively affected in Denmark, but negatively affected in Europe. In addition to nationally endangered species, this group would be an important focus for a Danish conservation strategy. A geographically differentiated Danish conservation strategy is suggested as the eastern part of Denmark was predicted to be more negatively affected than the western part. No differences in the sensitivity of the Habitats Directive habitats were found. We conclude that the conservation strategy of the Habitats Directive needs to integrate the expected shifts in species’ distributions due to climate change.     

Conservation action in Saudi Arabia: Challenges and opportunities

The conservation of biological diversity is gaining an increasing amount of global attention. In particular, in Saudi Arabia, conservation actions have become a topic of focus, with many successful initiatives being implemented. Despite these efforts, several wild animal species in Saudi Arabia still require special attention to ensure their long-term conservation and survival. If not effectively controlled, certain challenges could threaten the conservation status of local wildlife. Various conservation strategies are employed in Saudi Arabia to control these challenges, minimize their influence, and promote conservation action. Such strategies have proven to be effective; however, further efforts are still required, particularly outside protected areas. The conservation of species in critical situations primarily depends on the creation of protected areas and human intervention. Wildlife conservation is a collaborative effort; every individual has a role to play in protecting wild animals in each unique ecosystem to ensure their survival and the sustainability of their habitats for future generations.     

Climate change induced hybridization in flying squirrels

There is now unequivocal evidence for global climate change; however, its potential impacts on evolutionary processes remain unclear. Many species have responded to contemporary climate change through shifts in their geographic range. This could lead to increased sympatry between recently diverged species; likely increasing the potential for hybridization. Recently, following a series of warm winters, southern flying squirrels ( Glaucomys volans ) in Ontario, Canada rapidly expanded their northern range limit resulting in increased sympatry with the closely related northern flying squirrel ( Glaucomys sabrinus ). This provided the opportunity to test the prediction that contemporary climate change can act as a catalyst creating conditions for the formation of hybrid zones. Following extensive sampling and molecular analyses (nuclear and mitochondrial DNA), we identified the occurrence of hybridization between sympatric G. sabrinus and G. volans . There was evidence of backcrossing but not of extensive introgession, consistent with the hypothesis of recent rather than historic hybridization. To our knowledge, this is the first report of hybrid zone formation following a range expansion induced by contemporary climate change. This is also the first report of hybridization between North American flying squirrel species.     

Surrogate species protection in Bolivia under climate and land cover change scenarios

The Amazon rainforest covers more than 60% of Bolivia’s lowlands, providing habitat for many endemic and threatened species. Bolivia has the highest rates of deforestation of the Amazon biome, which degrades and fragments species habitat. Anthropogenic habitat changes could be exacerbated by climate change, and therefore, developing relevant strategies for biodiversity protection under global change scenarios is a necessary step in conservation planning.In this research we used multi-species umbrella concept to evaluate the degree of habitat impacts due to climate and land cover change in Bolivia. We used species distribution modeling to map three focal species (Jaguar, Lowland Tapir and Lesser Anteater) and assessed current protected area network effectiveness under future climate and land cover change scenarios for 2050.The studied focal species will lose between 70% and 83% of their ranges under future climate and land-cover change scenarios, decreasing the level of protection to 10% of their original ranges. Existing protected area network should be reconsidered to maintain current and future biodiversity habitats.     

Using motion-sensor camera technology to infer seasonal activity and thermal niche of the desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii)

Understanding the relationships between environmental variables and wildlife activity is an important part of effective management. The desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii), an imperiled species of arid environments in the southwest US, may have increasingly restricted windows for activity due to current warming trends. In summer 2013, we deployed 48 motion sensor cameras at the entrances of tortoise burrows to investigate the effects of temperature, sex, and day of the year on the activity of desert tortoises. Using generalized estimating equations, we found that the relative probability of activity was associated with temperature (linear and quadratic), sex, and day of the year. Sex effects showed that male tortoises are generally more active than female tortoises. Temperature had a quadratic effect, indicating that tortoise activity was heightened at a range of temperatures. In addition, we found significant support for interactions between sex and day of the year, and sex and temperature as predictors of the probability of activity. Using our models, we were able to estimate air temperatures and times (days and hours) that were associated with maximum activity during the study. Because tortoise activity is constrained by environmental conditions such as temperature, it is increasingly vital to conduct studies on how tortoises vary their activity throughout the Sonoran Desert to better understand the effects of a changing climate.     

Response of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change and human perturbation

Despite 20 years of intensive effort to understand the global carbon cycle, the budget for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is unbalanced. To explain why atmospheric CO₂ is not increasing as rapidly as it should be, various workers have suggested that land vegetation acts as a sink for carbon dioxide. Here, I examine various possibilities and find that the evidence for a sink of sufficient magnitude on land is poor. Moreover, it is unlikely that the land vegetation will act as a sink in the postulated warmer global climates of the future. In response to rapid human population growth, destruction of natural ecosystems in the tropics remains a large net source of CO₂ for the atmosphere, which is only partially compensated by the potential for carbon storage in temperate and boreal regions. Direct and inadvertent human effects on land vegetation might increase the magnitude of regional CO₂ storage on land, but they are unlikely to play a significant role in moderating the potential rate of greenhouse warming in the future.     

Temperature-related mortality in France, a comparison between regions with different climates from the perspective of global warming

This paper aims to explain the results of an observational population study that was carried out between 1991 and 1995 in six regions (departments) in France. The study was to assess the relationship between temperature and mortality in a few areas of France that offer widely varying climatic conditions and lifestyles, to determine their thermal optimum, defined as a 3 degrees C temperature band with the lowest mortality rate in each area, and then to compare the mortality rates from this baseline band with temperatures above and below the baseline. The study period was selected because it did not include extreme cold or hot events such as a heatwave. Data on daily deaths from each department were first used to examine the entire population and then to examine men, women, various age groups and various causes of death (respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, other disease of the circulatory system, and all other causes excluding violent deaths). Mean temperatures were provided by the National Weather Service. The results depicted an asymmetrical V- or U-shaped relationship between mortality and temperature, with a thermal optimum lower for the elderly, and generally lower for women than for men except in Paris. The relationship was also different depending on the cause of death. In all cases, more evidence was collected showing that cold weather was more deadly than hot weather, and it would now be interesting to enlarge the study to include years with cold spells and heatwaves. Furthermore, the results obtained could be of great use in estimating weather-related mortality as a consequence of future climate-change scenarios.