Global in scope and regionally rich: an IndiSeas workshop helps shape the future of marine ecosystem indicators

This report summarizes the outcomes of an IndiSeas workshop aimed at using ecosystem indicators to evaluate the status of the world??s exploited marine ecosystems in support of an ecosystem approach to fisheries, and global policy drivers such as the 2020 targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Key issues covered relate to the selection and integration of multi-disciplinary indicators, including climate, biodiversity and human dimension indicators, and to the development of data- and model-based methods to test the performance of ecosystem indicators in providing support for fisheries management. To enhance the robustness of our cross-system comparison, unprecedented effort was put in gathering regional experts from developed and developing countries, working together on multi-institutional survey datasets, and using the most up-to-date ecosystem models.     

Regime shifts in exploited marine food webs: detecting mechanisms underlying alternative stable states using size-structured community dynamics theory

Many marine ecosystems have undergone ‘regime shifts’, i.e. abrupt reorganizations across trophic levels. Establishing whether these constitute shifts between alternative stable states is of key importance for the prospects of ecosystem recovery and for management. We show how mechanisms underlying alternative stable states caused by predator–prey interactions can be revealed in field data, using analyses guided by theory on size-structured community dynamics. This is done by combining data on individual performance (such as growth and fecundity) with information on population size and prey availability. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and their prey in the Baltic Sea as an example to discuss and distinguish two types of mechanisms, ‘cultivation-depensation’ and ‘overcompensation’, that can cause alternative stable states preventing the recovery of overexploited piscivorous fish populations. Importantly, the type of mechanism can be inferred already from changes in the predators'' body growth in different life stages. Our approach can thus be readily applied to monitored stocks of piscivorous fish species, for which this information often can be assembled. Using this tool can help resolve the causes of catastrophic collapses in marine predatory–prey systems and guide fisheries managers on how to successfully restore collapsed piscivorous fish stocks.     

Climate impacts and oceanic top predators: moving from impacts to adaptation in oceanic systems

Climate impacts are now widely reported from coastal marine systems, but less is known for the open ocean. Here we review progress in understanding impacts on large pelagic species presented at an international workshop for the Climate Impacts on Oceanic Top Predators programme, and discuss the future with regard to the next phase of adaptation-focused research. Recent highlights include a plan to map the distribution of key species in the foodweb using both acoustics and biochemical techniques, and development of a new data sharing and access tool for fisheries and associated data, including socio-economic information. A common research focus in pelagic ecosystems is on understanding climate variability and climate change impacts on marine species, but a greater emphasis on developing future scenarios and adaptation options is needed. Workshop participants also concluded that engagement with and provision of science support to regional fisheries management organisations are critical elements for ensuring successful uptake of research. This uptake will be required for future management of fisheries as global warming continues such that some open ocean top predators can be sustainably harvested, impacts on conservation-dependent species can be avoided, and ecosystem function is not compromised.     

Marine megafauna interactions with small-scale fisheries in the southwestern Indian Ocean: a review of status and challenges for research and management

In developing regions, coastal communities are particularly dependent on small-scale fisheries for food security and income. However, information on the scale and impacts of small-scale fisheries on coastal marine ecosystems are frequently lacking. Large marine vertebrates (marine mammals, sea turtles and chondrichthyans) are often among the first species to experience declines due to fisheries. This paper reviews the interactions between small-scale fisheries and vulnerable marine megafauna in the southwestern Indian Ocean. We highlight an urgent need for proper documentation, monitoring and assessment at the regional level of small-scale fisheries and the megafauna affected by them to inform evidence-based fisheries management. Catch and landings data are generally of poor quality and resolution with compositional data, where available, mostly anecdotal or heavily biased towards easily identifiable species. There is also limited understanding of fisheries effort, most of which relies on metrics unsuitable for proper assessment. Management strategies (where they exist) are often created without strong evidence bases or understanding of the reliance of fishers on resources. Consequently, it is not possible to effectively assess the current status and ensure the sustainability of these species groups; with indications of overexploitation in several areas. To address these issues, a regionally collaborative approach between government and non-governmental organisations, independent researchers and institutions, and small-scale fisheries stakeholders is required. In combination with good governance practices, appropriate and effective, evidence-based management can be formulated to sustain these resources, the marine ecosystems they are intrinsically linked to and the livelihoods of coastal communities that are tied to them.     

Trophic amplification of climate warming

Ecosystems can alternate suddenly between contrasting persistent states due to internal processes or external drivers. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which these shifts occur, especially in exploited ecosystems. There have been several abrupt marine ecosystem shifts attributed either to fishing, recent climate change or a combination of these two drivers. We show that temperature has been an important driver of the trophodynamics of the North Sea, a heavily fished marine ecosystem, for nearly 50 years and that a recent pronounced change in temperature established a new ecosystem dynamic regime through a series of internal mechanisms. Using an end-to-end ecosystem approach that included primary producers, primary, secondary and tertiary consumers, and detritivores, we found that temperature modified the relationships among species through nonlinearities in the ecosystem involving ecological thresholds and trophic amplifications. Trophic amplification provides an alternative mechanism to positive feedback to drive an ecosystem towards a new dynamic regime, which in this case favours jellyfish in the plankton and decapods and detritivores in the benthos. Although overfishing is often held responsible for marine ecosystem degeneration, temperature can clearly bring about similar effects. Our results are relevant to ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), seen as the way forward to manage exploited marine ecosystems.     

Fishing,predation, and temperature drive herring decline in a large marine ecosystem

Since 1960, landings of Atlantic herring have been the greatest of any marine species in Canada, surpassing Atlantic cod and accounting for 24% of the total seafood harvested in Atlantic Canada. The Scotian Shelf‐Bay of Fundy herring fisheries (NAFO Division 4VWX) is among Canada''s oldest and drives this productivity, accounting for up to 75% of the total herring catch in some years. The stocks’ productivity and overall health have declined since 1965. Despite management measures to promote recovery implemented since 2003, biomass remains low and is declining. The factors that drive the productivity of 4VWX herring are primarily unresolved, likely impeding the effectiveness of management actions on this stock. We evaluated potential drivers of herring variability by analyzing 52 time‐series that describe the temporal and spatial evolution of the 4VWX herring population and the physical, ecological, and anthropogenic factors that could affect them using structural equation models. Variation in herring biomass was best accounted for by the exploitation rate''s negative effect and the geographic distribution of fishing and recruitment. Thermal phenology and temperature adversely and egg predation positively impacted the early life stage mortality rate and, ultimately, adult biomass. These findings are broadly relevant to fisheries management, but particularly for 4VWX herring, where the current management approach does not consider their early life stage dynamics or assess them within the ecosystem or climate change contexts.     

Effects of climate‐driven primary production change on marine food webs: implications for fisheries and conservation

Climate change is altering the rate and distribution of primary production in the world's oceans. Primary production is critical to maintaining biodiversity and supporting fishery catches, but predicting the response of populations to primary production change is complicated by predation and competition interactions. We simulated the effects of change in primary production on diverse marine ecosystems across a wide latitudinal range in Australia using the marine food web model Ecosim. We link models of primary production of lower trophic levels (phytoplankton and benthic producers) under climate change with Ecosim to predict changes in fishery catch, fishery value, biomass of animals of conservation interest, and indicators of community composition. Under a plausible climate change scenario, primary production will increase around Australia and generally this benefits fisheries catch and value and leads to increased biomass of threatened marine animals such as turtles and sharks. However, community composition is not strongly affected. Sensitivity analyses indicate overall positive linear responses of functional groups to primary production change. Responses are robust to the ecosystem type and the complexity of the model used. However, model formulations with more complex predation and competition interactions can reverse the expected responses for some species, resulting in catch declines for some fished species and localized declines of turtle and marine mammal populations under primary productivity increases. We conclude that climate‐driven primary production change needs to be considered by marine ecosystem managers and more specifically, that production increases can simultaneously benefit fisheries and conservation. Greater focus on incorporating predation and competition interactions into models will significantly improve the ability to identify species and industries most at risk from climate change.     

Allochthonous resources are less important for faunal communities on highly productive,small tropical islands

Ecosystems are interconnected by energy fluxes that provide resources for the inhabiting organisms along the transition zone. Especially where in situ resources are scarce, ecosystems can become highly dependent on external resources. The dependency on external input becomes less pronounced in systems with elevated in situ production, where only consumer species close to the site of external input remain subsidized, whereas species distant to the input site rely on the in situ production of the ecosystem. It is largely unclear though if this pattern is consistent over different consumer species and trophic levels in one ecosystem, and whether consumer species that occur both proximate to and at a distance from the input site differ in their dependency on external resource inputs between sites. Using stable isotope analysis, we investigated the dependency on external marine input for common ground‐associated consumer taxa on small tropical islands with high in situ production. We show that marine input is only relevant for strict beach‐dwelling taxa, while the terrestrial vegetation is the main carbon source for inland‐dwelling taxa. Consumer species that occurred both close (beach) and distant (inland) to the site of marine input showed similar proportions of marine input in their diets. This supports earlier findings that the relevance of external resources becomes limited to species close to the input site in systems with sufficient in situ production. However, it also indicates that the relevance of external input is also species‐dependent, as consumers occurring close and distant to the input site depended equally strong or weak on marine input.     

Fish and fisheries in hot water: What is happening and how do we adapt?

Rapid climate changes are currently driving substantial reorganizations of marine ecosystems around the world. A key question is how these changes will alter the provision of ecosystem services from the ocean, particularly from fisheries. To answer this question, we need to understand not only the ecological dynamics of marine systems, but also human adaptation and feedbacks between humans and the rest of the natural world. In this review, we outline what we have learned from research primarily in continental shelf ecosystems and fishing communities of North America. Key findings are that marine animals are highly sensitive to warming and are responding quickly to changes in water temperature, and that such changes are often happening faster than similar processes on land. Changes in species distributions and productivity are having substantial impacts on fisheries, including through changing catch compositions and longer distances traveled for fishing trips. Conflicts over access to fisheries have also emerged as species distributions are no longer aligned with regulations or catch allocations. These changes in the coupled natural-human system have reduced the value of ecosystem services from some fisheries and risk doing so even more in the future. Going forward, substantial opportunities for more effective fisheries management and operations, marine conservation, and marine spatial planning are likely possible through greater consideration of climate information over time-scales from years to decades.     

Varying demographic impacts of different fisheries on three Mediterranean seabird species

Fisheries have an enormous economic importance, but reconciling their socio‐economic features with the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems presents major challenges. Bycatch mortality from fisheries is clearly among the most serious global threats for marine ecosystems, affecting a wide range of top predators. Recent estimates report ca. 200,000 seabirds killed annually by bycatch in European waters. However, there is an urgent need to rigorously estimate actual mortality rates and quantify effects of bycatch on populations. The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most impacted regions. Here, we estimate for the first time both bycatch mortality rates and their population‐level effects on three endemic and vulnerable Mediterranean taxa: Scopoli's shearwater, Mediterranean shag, and Audouin's gull, that die in different types of fishing gears: longlines, gillnets and sport trolling, respectively. We use multi‐event capture–recapture modelling to estimate crucial demographic parameters, including the probabilities of dying in different fishing gears. We then build stochastic demography models to forecast the viability of the populations under different management scenarios. Longline bycatch was particularly severe for adults of Scopoli's shearwaters and Audouin's gulls (ca. 28% and 23% of total mortality, respectively) and also for immature gulls (ca. 90% of mortality). Gillnets had a lower impact, but were still responsible for ca. 9% of juvenile mortality on shags, whereas sport trolling only slightly influenced total mortality in gulls. Bycatch mortality has high population‐level impacts in all three species, with shearwaters having the highest extinction risk under current mortality rates. Different life‐history traits and compensatory demographic mechanisms between the three species are probably influencing the different bycatch impact: for shearwaters, urgent conservation actions are required to ensure the viability of their populations. Results will be very useful for guiding future seabird conservation policies and moving towards an ecosystem‐based approach to sustainable fisheries management.     

Marine protected areas can be useful but are not a silver bullet for kelp conservation

Kelp forests are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, but they are increasingly being degraded and lost due to a range of human-related stressors, leading to recent calls for their improved management and conservation. One of the primary tools to conserve marine species and biodiversity is the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). International commitments to protect 30% of the world's ecosystems are gaining momentum, offering a promising avenue to secure kelp forests into the Anthropocene. However, a clear understanding of the efficacy of MPAs for conserving kelp forests in a changing ocean is lacking. In this perspective, we question whether strengthened global protection will create meaningful conservation outcomes for kelp forests. We explore the benefits of MPAs for kelp conservation under a suite of different stressors, focusing on empirical evidence from protected kelp forests. We show that MPAs can be effective against some drivers of kelp loss (e.g., overgrazing, kelp harvesting), particularly when they are maintained in the long-term and enforced as no-take areas. There is also some evidence that MPAs can reduce impacts of climate change through building resilience in multi-stressor situations. However, MPAs also often fail to provide protection against ocean warming, marine heatwaves, coastal darkening, and pollution, which have emerged as dominant drivers of kelp forest loss globally. Although well-enforced MPAs should remain an important tool to protect kelp forests, successful kelp conservation will require implementing an additional suite of management solutions that target these accelerating threats.     

β-Diversity and Species Accumulation in Antarctic Coastal Benthos: Influence of Habitat,Distance and Productivity on Ecological Connectivity

High Antarctic coastal marine environments are comparatively pristine with strong environmental gradients, which make them important places to investigate biodiversity relationships. Defining how different environmental features contribute to shifts in β-diversity is especially important as these shifts reflect both spatio-temporal variations in species richness and the degree of ecological separation between local and regional species pools. We used complementary techniques (species accumulation models, multivariate variance partitioning and generalized linear models) to assess how the roles of productivity, bio-physical habitat heterogeneity and connectivity change with spatial scales from metres to 100''s of km. Our results demonstrated that the relative importance of specific processes influencing species accumulation and β–diversity changed with increasing spatial scale, and that patterns were never driven by only one factor. Bio-physical habitat heterogeneity had a strong influence on β-diversity at scales <290 km, while the effects of productivity were low and significant only at scales >40 km. Our analysis supports the emphasis on the analysis of diversity relationships across multiple spatial scales and highlights the unequal connectivity of individual sites to the regional species pool. This has important implications for resilience to habitat loss and community homogenisation, especially for Antarctic benthic communities where rates of recovery from disturbance are slow, there is a high ratio of poor-dispersing and brooding species, and high biogenic habitat heterogeneity and spatio-temporal variability in primary production make the system vulnerable to disturbance. Consequently, large areas need to be included within marine protected areas for effective management and conservation of these special ecosystems in the face of increasing anthropogenic disturbance.     

Marine Mammal Impacts in Exploited Ecosystems: Would Large Scale Culling Benefit Fisheries?

Competition between marine mammals and fisheries for marine resources-whether real or perceived-has become a major issue for several countries and in international fora. We examined trophic interactions between marine mammals and fisheries based on a resource overlap index, using seven Ecopath models including marine mammal groups. On a global scale, most food consumed by marine mammals consisted of prey types that were not the main target of fisheries. For each ecosystem, the primary production required (PPR) to sustain marine mammals was less than half the PPR to sustain fisheries catches. We also developed an index representing the mean trophic level of marine mammal's consumption (TL(Q)) and compared it with the mean trophic level of fisheries' catches (TL(C)). Our results showed that overall TL(Q) was lower than TL(C) (2.88 versus 3.42). As fisheries increasingly exploit lower-trophic level species, the competition with marine mammals may become more important. We used mixed trophic impact analysis to evaluate indirect trophic effects of marine mammals, and in some cases found beneficial effects on some prey. Finally, we assessed the change in the trophic structure of an ecosystem after a simulated extirpation of marine mammal populations. We found that this lead to alterations in the structure of the ecosystems, and that there was no clear and direct relationship between marine mammals' predation and the potential catch by fisheries. Indeed, total biomass, with no marine mammals in the ecosystem, generally remained surprisingly similar, or even decreased for some species.     

Reduced Global Genetic Differentiation of Exploited Marine Fish Species

Knowledge on genetic structure is key to understand species connectivity patterns and to define the spatiotemporal scales over which conservation management plans should be designed and implemented. The distribution of genetic diversity (within and among populations) greatly influences species ability to cope and adapt to environmental changes, ultimately determining their long-term resilience to ecological disturbances. Yet, the drivers shaping connectivity and structure in marine fish populations remain elusive, as are the effects of fishing activities on genetic subdivision. To investigate these questions, we conducted a meta-analysis and compiled genetic differentiation data (F_ST/Φ_ST estimates) for more than 170 fish species from over 200 published studies globally distributed. We modeled the effects of multiple life-history traits, distance metrics, and methodological factors on observed population differentiation indices and specifically tested whether any signal arising from different exposure to fishing exploitation could be detected. Although the myriad of variables shaping genetic structure makes it challenging to isolate the influence of single drivers, results showed a significant correlation between commercial importance and genetic structure, with widespread lower population differentiation in commercially exploited species. Moreover, models indicate that variables commonly used as proxy for connectivity, such as larval pelagic duration, might be insufficient, and suggest that deep-sea species may disperse further. Overall, these results contribute to the growing body of knowledge on marine genetic connectivity and suggest a potential effect of commercial fisheries on the homogenization of genetic diversity, highlighting the need for additional research focused on dispersal ecology to ensure long-term sustainability of exploited marine species.     

Prepared for change? An assessment of the current state of knowledge to support climate adaptation for Australian fisheries

Fisheries and marine ecosystems are challenged globally by climate change with subsequent biological and socio-ecological implications. Adaptation represents one pathway by which management agencies can seek to ensure sustainability of these resources for societal well-being, particularly when based on strong scientific evidence. Here, we examined the extent of primary scientific literature that is currently available to inform climate adaption initiatives for Australian fisheries. This is achieved via a systematic literature review for 99 harvested Australian marine species, aimed at identifying primary scientific articles that reported new knowledge of climate-driven biological changes and/or socio-ecological implications. We then assessed the quantity of scientific literature against estimated relative climate sensitivity scores for each species (from a previous study), and investigated factors that may influence relative research effort. We found that two-thirds of species had no peer-reviewed climate-related literature available, and that research effort among Australian fisheries species is most closely related to the number of commercial fish stocks per species, and commercial catch weight. We also found that the south-east and western Australian regions had the most climate-related biological information to support climate adaptation in fisheries management. Nonetheless, although accumulating knowledge of the biological and socio-ecological implications of climate change is important, increasing knowledge alone is insufficient to maintain the productivity and profitability of Australian fisheries in light of projected climate impacts. We suggest that the further use of this knowledge to inform decision-making processes is essential to ensure that climate adaptation options are fully explored, to allow sustainable and productive fisheries.

     

Local Ecological Knowledge and Scientific Data Reveal Overexploitation by Multigear Artisanal Fisheries in the Southwestern Atlantic

In the last decades, a number of studies based on historical records revealed the diversity loss in the oceans and human-induced changes to marine ecosystems. These studies have improved our understanding of the human impacts in the oceans. They also drew attention to the shifting baseline syndrome and the importance of assessing appropriate sources of data in order to build the most reliable environmental baseline. Here we amassed information from artisanal fishermen''s local ecological knowledge, fisheries landing data and underwater visual census to assess the decline of fish species in Southeastern Brazil. Interviews with 214 fishermen from line, beach seine and spearfishing revealed a sharp decline in abundance of the bluefish Pomatomus saltatrix, the groupers Epinephelus marginatus, Mycteroperca acutirostris, M. bonaci and M. microlepis, and large parrotfishes in the past six decades. Fisheries landing data from a 16-year period support the decline of bluefish as pointed by fishermen''s local knowledge, while underwater visual census campaigns show reductions in groupers'' abundance and a sharp population decline of the Brazilian endemic parrotfish Scarus trispinosus. Despite the marked decline of these fisheries, younger and less experienced fishermen recognized fewer species as overexploited and fishing sites as depleted than older and more experienced fishermen, indicating the occurrence of the shifting baseline syndrome. Here we show both the decline of multigear fisheries catches – combining anecdotal and scientific data – as well as changes in environmental perceptions over generations of fishermen. Managing ocean resources requires looking into the past, and into traditional knowledge, bringing historical baselines to the present and improving public awareness.     

Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.     

Potential stocks of reef fish-based ecosystem services in the Kuroshio Current region: Their relationship with latitude and biodiversity

The latitudinal decline of species richness is a general spatial pattern of biodiversity, and it applies to marine species as well. Based on a latitudinal gradient of marine species richness, potential stocks of marine ecosystem services are expected to be higher in lower latitudes through increment in biodiversity. However, little is known about the relationships of the marine ecosystem services with latitude and biodiversity. We estimated the latitudinal patterns and relationships with the biodiversity of potential stocks of three major reef fish-based ecosystem services (fisheries production, aquarium fish production, and recreational diving) at ten coral habitats from tropical to temperate zones in the Kuroshio Current region (8°37′N–33°24′N) using field survey data and information from relevant websites and administrative statistics. We found a latitudinal declin from south to north in potential stocks of aquarium fish production and diving in this region, whereas the peaks of fisheries production were found around both tropical and sub-tropical zones. Our results also showed strong positive effects of biodiversity on potential stocks of the three ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of conserving diverse fish species to sustain multiple services at high levels. Broad spatial patterns of the reef fish-based ecosystem services are useful as baselines for future evaluation of their changes. As the effects of climate change on reef fishes are predicted to vary among different latitude zones, our estimates of the ecosystem services infer specific management and economic actions for the respective zones against climate change.     

Marine Ecosystem Response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Against the backdrop of warming of the Northern Hemisphere it has recently been acknowledged that North Atlantic temperature changes undergo considerable variability over multidecadal periods. The leading component of natural low-frequency temperature variability has been termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Presently, correlative studies on the biological impact of the AMO on marine ecosystems over the duration of a whole AMO cycle (∼60 years) is largely unknown due to the rarity of continuously sustained biological observations at the same time period. To test whether there is multidecadal cyclic behaviour in biological time-series in the North Atlantic we used one of the world''s longest continuously sustained marine biological time-series in oceanic waters, long-term fisheries data and historical records over the last century and beyond. Our findings suggest that the AMO is far from a trivial presence against the backdrop of continued temperature warming in the North Atlantic and accounts for the second most important macro-trend in North Atlantic plankton records; responsible for habitat switching (abrupt ecosystem/regime shifts) over multidecadal scales and influences the fortunes of various fisheries over many centuries.