一般增长曲线模型中的条件最优预测

研究了线性约束条件下的一般增长曲线模型中一类线性可预测变量和Φ-线性可预测变量的最优预测问题,分别得到了条件最优线性无偏预测和条件最优Φ-线性无偏预测,并证明了它们在几乎处处意义下的唯一性.     

种群增长模型中的增长率和增长速率的比较

针对在一道高考题中出现的种群增长率与高中必修(人教版)教材中增长率的涵义不同,通过介绍种群增长模型的三种类型,旨在辨析增长率和增长速率.     

珍稀濒危植物青钩栲种群数量特征研究

提出自适应种群增长新模型Ｓ＝ｅｘｐ（ａｌｎ＾２（１＋ｃｅ＾－ｒｔ）＋βｌｎ（１＋ｃｅ＾－ｅｔ）＋γ）,该模型包融了Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ模型、Ｓｍｉｔｈ模型、Ｇｏｍｐｅｒｔｚ模型、崔－Ｌａｗｓｏｎ模型、张－Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ模型和刘－Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ模型,运用遗传算法适应新模型进行参数估计,拟合青钩栲种群增长规律比其它种群增长模型更符合青钩栲群种的实际增长趋势,说明新模型具有一定的实用价值。     

格氏栲种群优势度增长改进模型的研究

提出有限的空间种群增长的Logistic改进模型探讨格氏栲种群基面积增长规律,即dS/dt=rS(1-S^θ/K）。该模型通过树种的竞争特性因子θ控制,将指数增长、线性制约、下凹增长和上凸增长非线性制约概括一个统一的自适应性的非线性制约通用模型。运用改进单纯形对Logistic改进模型进行优化,拟合结果表明改进模型是格氏栲种群优势度增长动态变化的一个极好机理描述式,其增长速度最大是在141年。     

喀斯特季节性雨林蚬木种群的增长模型

蚬木是喀斯特季节性雨林的优势种和特征种,研究蚬木种群的增长过程将为深入理解喀斯特季节性雨林动态提供基础。根据一个15hm2固定样地的调查数据,采用logistic模型及其4种改进模型对蚬木种群的增长过程进行了拟合,用残差平方和、决定系数和AIC准则对拟合的模型进行评价。结果表明:李新运模型和刘金福模型的拟合效果较好,但综合考虑模型的拟合效果和模型的简洁性,logistic模型和S形增长过程模型为较优模型。用logistic模型对蚬木种群的增长过程进行深入分析发现,种群增长最快的时期为50a左右,而在150a后,种群逐渐进入增长饱和期。种群目前接近增长饱和期,所以应加强保护,以维持蚬木群落的稳定发展。     

成虫期长于幼期的昆虫实验种群生殖力表参数估计模型的改进

针对昆虫的某些类群成虫期长于幼期的实际情况,利用矩阵建立了内禀增长力估计的改进型模型,使得因成虫期过长而引起的世代重叠情况下,子孙后代在母代成虫存活期内的繁殖量得到表达.对成虫期远长于幼期而引发的当代成虫生殖期间,出现的世代重叠和生殖量进行估计,使得内禀增长力rm的计算与实际较为吻合.经rm的精确值估计模型的验算,证明新模型比原模型在估计rm值时,更加接近精确值.     

孑遗植物水松(Glyptostrobus pensilis)种群优势度增长规律研究

运用有限空间种群增长的逻辑斯谛模型探讨屏南水松(Glyptostrobus pensilis)种群基面积的增长规律,并通过改进单纯型法进行最优拟合.研究结果表明,洪-Logistic新模型比其它种群增长模型更符合水松种群的实际增长趋势.该模型残差平方和Q为1.7831,内禀增长率为0.7604,特征返回时间Tr为1.3116径级年,最大增长速率出现在第8径级,即胸径为48～54 cm时期,平衡位置在环境容量为58.1991 m2/hm2处.可见水松种群增长较慢,平衡性脆弱,受破坏后恢复时间较长.研究结果可为屏南水松种群的保护和管理提供理论依据.     

孑遗植物水松（Glyptostrobus pensilis）种群优势度增长规律研究

运用有限空间种群增长的逻辑斯谛模型探讨屏南水松（Glyptostrobus pensilis）种群基面积的增长规律,并通过改进单纯型法进行最优拟合。研究结果表明,洪-Logistic新模型比其它种群增长模型更符合水松种群的实际增长趋势。该模型残差平方和Q为1．7831,内禀增长率为0．7604,特征返回时间n为1．3116径级年,最大增长速率出现在第8径级,即胸径为48～54cm时期,平衡位置在环境容量为58．1991m^2／hm^2处。可见水松种群增长较慢,平衡性脆弱,受破坏后恢复时间较长。研究结果可为屏南水松种群的保护和管理提供理论依据。     

一种自适应的种群增长模型及参数估计

通过对种群增长的非线性制约机制的数学形态分析,提出了一种新的种群增长数学模型ｄｘ／ｄｔ＝ｒｘ（１－（ｘ／ｘｍ）＾ｓ）其解析解为：ｘ（ｔ）＝ｘｍ／（１＋（ｘ＾ｓｍ／ｘ＾ｓ０－１）ｅ＾－ｒｓｔ）＾１／ｓ该模型当非线性密度制约指数ｓ〈１,ｓ＝１,ｓ〉１及ｓ→∞时分别对尖于ＳｍｉｔｈＬｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ,崔－Ｌａｗｓｏｎ及指数增长模型,具有自适应性,本文还提出了一种种群增长模型对数估计的搜索寻优方法,只要给出     

孑遗植物水松(Glyptostrobus pensilis)种群优势度增长规律研究

运用有限空间种群增长的逻辑斯谛模型探讨屏南水松(Glyptostrobus pensilis)种群基面积的增长规律,并通过改进单纯型法进行最优拟合。研究结果表明,洪-Logistic新模型比其它种群增长模型更符合水松种群的实际增长趋势。该模型残差平方和Q为1.7831,内禀增长率为0.7604,特征返回时间Tr为1.3116径级年,最大增长速率出现在第8径级,即胸径为48～54cm时期,平衡位置在环境容量为58.1991m2/hm2处。可见水松种群增长较慢,平衡性脆弱,受破坏后恢复时间较长。研究结果可为屏南水松种群的保护和管理提供理论依据。     

Forest Rehabilitation and Its Implication for Forest Transition Theory

Forest transition theory bases its predictions of forest recovery in temperate regions primarily on macro-economic factors. In tropical countries, it is important to understand additional complex processes underlying forest recovery. Forest rehabilitation—meaning efforts to restore tree cover—is an important contributor to forest recovery in many tropical regions. Forest rehabilitation itself is subject to multiple factors that influence its scale, effectiveness and outcomes. This paper reviews forest rehabilitation in six countries—Brazil, China, Indonesia, Peru, Philippines and Vietnam. The cases reviewed suggest that globally, forest rehabilitation efforts can be understood in four time periods, or eras, each with distinct approaches to forest rehabilitation and outcomes. Various factors that influence forest rehabilitation outcomes evolved during these eras. Current outcomes of forest rehabilitation can only be adequately predicted if the historical processes influencing forest rehabilitation are understood. The paper suggests that forest transition in the tropics needs to be analyzed not only in terms of macro-economic factors, but also in terms of the factors that influence forest rehabilitation outcomes as well as other processes that affect forest cover increase.     

Divergent Paths for Adult Mortality in Russia and Central Asia: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Adult mortality has been lower in Kyrgyzstan vs. Russia among males since at least 1981 and among females since 1999. Also, Kyrgyzstan’s mortality fluctuations have had smaller amplitude. This has occurred in spite of worse macro-economic outcomes in Kyrgyzstan. To understand these surprising patterns, we analyzed cause-specific mortality in Kyrgyzstan vs. Russia for the period 1981-2010, using unpublished official data. We find that, as in Russia, fluctuations in Kyrgyzstan have been primarily due to changes in external causes and circulatory causes, and alcohol appears to play an important role. However, in contrast with Russia, mortality from these causes in Kyrgyzstan has been lower and has increased by a smaller amount. As a result, the mortality gap between the two countries is overwhelmingly attributable to external and cardio-vascular causes, and more generally, to causes that have been shown to be strongly related to alcohol consumption. These cause-specific results, together with the existence of large ethnic differentials in mortality in Kyrgyzstan, highlight the importance of cultural and religious differences, and their impact on patterns of alcohol consumption, in explaining the mortality gap between the two countries. These findings show that explanatory frameworks relying solely on macro-economic factors are not sufficient for understanding differences in mortality levels and trends among former Soviet republics.     

Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-S model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale: A case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang,China

Uses of models of land use change are primary tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and supporting land use planning and policy. However, no single model is able to capture all of key processes essential to explore land use change at different scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and impacts. Based on the multi-scale characteristics of land use change, combination and integration of currently existed models of land use change could be a feasible solution. Taken Sangong watershed as a case study, this paper describes an integrated methodology in which the conversion of land use and its effect model (CLUE), a spatially explicit land use change model, has been combined with a system dynamic model (SD) to analyze land use dynamics at different scales. A SD model is used to calculate area changes in demand for land types as a whole while a CLUE model is used to transfer these demands to land use patterns. Without the spatial consideration, the SD model ensures an appropriate treatment of macro-economic, demographic and technology developments, and changes in economic policies influencing the demand and supply for land use in a specific region. With CLUE model the land use change has been simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use suitability, spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply. The application of the combination of SD and CLUE model in Sangong watershed suggests that this methodology have the ability to reflect the complex behaviors of land use system at different scales to some extent and be a useful tool for analysis of complex land use driving factors such as land use policies and assessment of its impacts on land use change. The established SD model was fitted or calibrated with the 1987–1998 data and validated with the 1998–2004 data; combining SD model with CLUE-S model, future land use scenarios were analyzed during 2004–2030. This work could be used for better understanding of the possible impacts of land use change on terrestrial ecosystem and provide scientific support for land use planning and managements of the watershed.     

Greatness and tribulations of Zeiss and Leitz, two famous German optic companies - I. Zeiss

In a series of three articles, a parallel is drawn between the histories of the two most famous German optic companies, Zeiss and Leitz. Born in the middle of the 19th century, Zeiss went through National Socialism, World War II, partition and reunification of Germany. Archive documents abound, but a careful analysis is necessary to understand or guess the part played by the main actors, as Ernst Abbe, brilliant German physicist, or Küppenbender who eclipsed Emanuel Goldberg, a pioneer in information storage and retrieval. The reunification of Germany provided the opportunity for the reuniting of the eastern and western Carl Zeiss enterprises, creating a macro-economic shock, with radical change for the Carl Zeiss Jena company. Today, Carl Zeiss AG is a global leader in the optical and optoelectronic industry.     

Understanding Recession and Self-Rated Health with the Partial Proportional Odds Model: An Analysis of 26 Countries

IntroductionSelf-rated health is demonstrated to vary substantially by both personal socio-economic status and national economic conditions. However, studies investigating the combined influence of individual and country level economic indicators across several countries in the context of recent global recession are limited. This paper furthers our knowledge of the effect of recession on health at both the individual and national level.MethodsUsing the Life in Transition II study, which provides data from 19,759 individuals across 26 European nations, we examine the relationship between self-rated health, personal economic experiences, and macro-economic change. Data analyses include, but are not limited to, the partial proportional odds model which permits the effect of predictors to vary across different levels of our dependent variable.ResultsHousehold experiences with recession, especially a loss of staple good consumption, are associated with lower self-rated health. Most individual-level experiences with recession, such as a job loss, have relatively small negative effects on perceived health; the effect of individual or household economic hardship is strongest in high income nations. Our findings also suggest that macroeconomic growth improves self-rated health in low-income nations but has no effect in high-income nations. Individuals with the greatest probability of “good” self-rated health reside in wealthy countries ($23,910 to $50, 870 GNI per capita).ConclusionBoth individual and national economic variables are predictive of self-rated health. Personal and household experiences are most consequential for self-rated health in high income nations, while macroeconomic growth is most consequential in low-income nations.     

Application of three independent consequential LCA approaches to the agricultural sector in Luxembourg

Purpose

Consequential Life Cycle Assessment (C-LCA) is a “system modelling approach in which activities in a product system are linked so that activities are included in the product system to the extent that they are expected to change as a consequence of a change in demand”. Hence, C-LCA focuses on micro-economic actions linked to macro-economic consequences, by identifying the (marginal) suppliers and technologies prone to be affected by variable scale changes in the demand of a product. Detecting the direct and indirect environmental effects due to changes in the production system is not an easy task. Hence, researchers have combined the consequential perspective with different econometric models. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess an increase in biocrops cultivation in Luxembourg using three different consequential modelling approaches to understand the benefits, drawbacks and assumptions linked to each approach as applied to the case study selected.

Methods

Firstly, a partial equilibrium (PE) model is used to detect changes in land cultivation based on the farmers’ revenue maximisation. Secondly, another PE model is proposed, which considers a different perspective aiming at minimising a total adaptation cost (so-called opportunity cost) to satisfy a given new demand of domestically produced biofuel. Finally, the consequential system delimitation for agricultural LCA approach, as proposed by Schmidt (Int J Life Cycle Assess 13:350–364, 2008), is applied.

Results and discussion

The two PE models present complex shifts in crop rotation land use changes (LUCs), linked to the optimisation that is performed, while the remaining approach has limited consequential impact on changes in crop patterns since the expert opinion decision tree constitutes a simplification of the ongoing LUCs. However, environmental consequences in the latter were considerably higher due to intercontinental trade assumptions recommended by the experts that were not accounted for in the economic models. Environmental variations between the different scenarios due to LUCs vary based on the different expert- or computational-based assumptions. Finally, environmental consequences as compared with the current state-of-the-art are lame due to the limited impact of the shock within the global trade market.

Conclusions

The use of several consequential modelling approaches within the same study may help widen the interpretation of the advantages or risks of applying a specific change to a production system. In fact, different models may not only be good alternatives in terms of comparability of scenarios and assumptions, but there may also be room for complementing these within a unique framework to reduce uncertainties in an integrated way.     

Contrasting palm species and use diversity in the Yucatan Peninsula and the Ecuadorian Amazon

We analyze the relationship between palm species diversity and diversity of palm use in two areas (Amazonian Ecuador; Yucatan Peninsula) of equivalent size but with contrasting characteristics in palm species diversity and morphology, and in the phylogenetic composition of palm flora. The areas also differ in their cultural and socioeconomic contexts. Palm use diversity is significantly higher in the Ecuadorian Amazon than in the Yucatan Peninsula and the lower species diversity of palms in the Yucatan Peninsula is not matched by a more intensive use of the fewer species found there. The taxonomic composition of the palm flora is a poor predictor of extent of use and morphological characteristics of palm species affect usefulness only in the Ecuadorian Amazon. The Yucatecans’ more limited reliance on forest products might explain the observed patterns. Ornamental palm use is an indicator of a general change in plant use patterns associated with tourism and macro-economic development in the Yucatan Peninsula. We find a positive relationship between ecosystem plant diversity and plant use diversity, but socioeconomic factors such as market integration strongly influence the use of local biodiversity. Palms represent a diverse and important natural resource that deserves further investigation to secure its sustainable management and conservation in the two studied sites, regardless of their degree of market integration.     

Axonal model for temperature stimulation

Recent studies indicate that a rapid increase in local temperature plays an important role in nerve stimulation by laser. To analyze the temperature effect, our study modified the classical HH axonal model by incorporating a membrane capacitance-temperature relationship. The modified model successfully simulated the generation and propagation of action potentials induced by a rapid increase in local temperature when the Curie temperature of membrane capacitance is below 40 °C, while the classical model failed to simulate the axonal excitation by temperature stimulation. The new model predicts that a rapid increase in local temperature produces a rapid increase in membrane capacitance, which causes an inward membrane current across the membrane capacitor strong enough to depolarize the membrane and generate an action potential. If the Curie temperature of membrane capacitance is 31 °C, a temperature increase of 6.6–11.2 °C within 0.1–2.6 ms is required for axonal excitation and the required increase is smaller for a faster increase. The model also predicts that: (1) the temperature increase could be smaller if the global axon temperature is higher; (2) axons of small diameter require a smaller temperature increase than axons of large diameter. Our study indicates that the axonal membrane capacitance-temperature relationship plays a critical role in inducing the transient membrane depolarization by a rapidly increasing temperature, while the effects of temperature on ion channel kinetics cannot induce depolarization. The axonal model developed in this study will be very useful for analyzing the axonal response to local heating induced by pulsed infrared laser.     

Integrated basin flow assessments: concepts and method development in Africa and South-east Asia

1. This study summarises our development and application in developing countries of a process for assessing the ecological, social and economic costs and benefits of water-resource developments, as an aid to basin planning.
2. During 15 years of work in Africa and Asia, the process sequentially included the whole river ecosystem and the whole flow regime in the assessment; used a multidisciplinary team and a scenario-based approach that gave equal weighting to the ecological, social, resource-economic and macro-economic costs and benefits of development; quantified or semi-quantified the costs and benefits in data-poor situations, capturing expert opinion and local wisdom as well as data; recognised that the final allocation of water for ecosystem maintenance should be a societal choice of trade-offs between resource protection and development.
3. Flow assessments were increasingly done at the basin rather than project level and introduced the concept and practicality of Development Space as a tool to aid basin planning.
4. Later assessments included valuation of regulating, cultural and provisioning services provided by rivers as part of the cost-benefit analysis.
5. Implementation of managed flows as outlined above is a complex and long-term process that should include a number of major steps, from development of the appropriate legislation to monitoring of management decisions and adaptive management. Country or region-wide implementation at this scale could well take one to two decades, even where the political will and technical skills exist.
6. We conclude by offering eight principles that we believe would promote genuinely sustainable use of rivers.     

Dynamic Modelling of Northeast China Transect Responses to Global Change-A Regional Vegetation Model Driven by Remote Sensing Information

A remote sensing driven dynamic simulation model was developed for terrestrial ecosystems. The model was encoded in C language under the environment of SPAMOD, a spatial simulation tool developed under MS Windows. The model was applied to Northeast China Transect to simulate the dynamics of green and non-green biomass of 12 vegetation categories as well as soil water of 3 layers. The green biomass was converted to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of AVHRR remote sensing, and compared with the observed NDVI from 1986 to 1990. The model was also compared with ground measurements of biomass and productivity along the transect. Ambient CO2 concentration, monthly mean air temperature and monthly precipitation were regarded as the three basic driving variables for global change study. The model also included the effects of temperature and precipitation on sunshine fracti6n, relative humidity, radiation, soil water and eventually plant growth. For each CO2 and climatic scenario, the model was run for an equilibrium solution. The results indicated that the natural vegetation of the transect was very sensitive to variation of temperature and CO2 concentration. With CO2 remained unchanged and temperature increased by 4 CE, the induced increase in evapotranspiration could reduce the average biomass and net primary productivity (NPP) over the whole transect by 32.1% and 41.9 % respectively. In contrast, a 20 % increase in precipitation alone could lead to an increase of the average biomass and NPP by 8.1% and 13.4% respectively. Under the present climatic conditions, CO2 doubling could increase the average biomass and NPP by 12.2% and 17.1% respectively. Because of compensation between the positive effects of CO2 and precipitation increase and the negative effect of temperature increase, a comprehensive interaction among CO2 doubling, a 20% increase of precipitation and a 4 ℃ increase of temperature altogether can lead to approximately a 2% reduction in the biomass and NPP of the natural vegetation over the whole transect.