气候变化背景下野生动物脆弱性评估方法研究进展

脆弱性评估是研究气候变化影响野生动物的重要内容,识别野生动物脆弱性,是适应和减缓气候变化影响的关键和基础。开展气候变化背景下野生动物的脆弱性评估工作,目的是为了确定易受气候变化影响的物种和明确导致物种脆弱性的因素,其评估结果有助于人类认识气候变化对野生动物的影响,为野生动物适应气候变化保护对策的制定提供科学依据。对野生动物而言(物种),脆弱性是物种受气候变化影响的程度,包括暴露度、敏感性和适应能力三大要素。其中,暴露度是由气候变化引起的外在因素,如温度、降雨量、极值天气等;敏感性是受物种自身因素影响,如种间关系、耐受性等;适应能力是物种通过自身调整来减小气候变化带来的影响,如迁移或扩散到适宜生境的能力、塑性反应和进化反应等。对近期有关气候变化背景下野生动物脆弱性评估方法予以综述,比较每种评估方法所选取指标的差异,总结在脆弱性评估中遇到的不确定性指标的处理方法,以及脆弱性评估结果在野生动物适应气候变化对策中的应用。通过总结野生动物脆弱性评估方法,以期为气候变化背景下评估我国野生动物资源的脆弱性提供参考方法。     

Climate‐niche factor analysis: a spatial approach to quantifying species vulnerability to climate change

Climate change vulnerability assessments are an important tool for understanding the threat that climate change poses to species and populations, but do not generally yield insight into the spatial variation in vulnerability throughout a species’ habitat. We demonstrate how to adapt the method of ecological‐niche factor analysis (ENFA) to objectively quantify aspects of species sensitivity to climate change. We then expand ENFA to quantify aspects of exposure and vulnerability to climate change as well, using future projections of global climate models. This approach provides spatially‐explicit insight into geographic patterns of vulnerability, relies only on readily‐available spatial data, is suitable for a wide range of species and habitats, and invites comparison between different species. We apply our methods to a case study of two species of montane mammals, the American pika Ochotona princeps and the yellow‐bellied marmot Marmota flaviventris.     

中国水稻生产对历史气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性

有效的适应措施需要了解两类基础信息,一是农业生产所面临的各种气候变异风险,二是作物产量对潜在气候变异风险的反应及其机制.评价作物生产对历史气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性,可以在时间上和空间上揭示气候变化的趋势及作物产量对其的反应,从而为适应行动的全面开展提供基础信息.通过分析1981-2007年水稻生育期3个气候因子(平均温度、日较差、辐射)的变化对水稻产量的影响,评估我国水稻生产对这3个气候因子变化的敏感性和脆弱性及其区域分布状况.结果表明,1981-2007年间我国大部分水稻产区生育期内3个气候因子均发生了明显变化,存在着气候变异风险,其中以最高温的变化最普遍和明显,导致水稻生产中高温热害风险增加.部分区域水稻产量变化与单一气象因子的变化存在着显著的线性相关,这些地区气候因子的变化可以一定程度地解释水稻产量变化趋势,其中产量变化对辐射变化最敏感.当水稻生育期内平均温度上升1℃、日较差升高1℃、辐射下降10％时,我国部分地区水稻产量随之发生了相应的变化,其中辐射降低导致我国水稻生产的脆弱面积最大,其次为日较差.受3种气象因子变化趋势的综合影响,约有30％的水稻产区对1981-2007年的气候变化趋势敏感,少部分地区表现为脆弱,但水稻主产区受到的影响不大,且在东北地区还集中表现出产量增加的趋势,为我国水稻发展提供了契机.     

气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究进展

近百年来,全球气候系统正经历着以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化。研究海岸带系统对气候变化的响应机制,评估气候变化对海岸带社会、经济和生态的潜在影响,提出切实可行的应对策略,是保障海岸带系统安全的重要前提。回顾了IPCC的四次评估报告,分析了全球气候变化对海岸带的影响。总结了海岸带脆弱性评估框架以及脆弱性评价指标体系,综述了国内外气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究的进展。在综述国内外该领域研究进展的基础上,展望了气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究。全球气候变化及其对海岸带的影响还有大量的科学技术问题需要进一步探讨,同时也需要对各种适应气候变化措施的可行性和有效性进行研究和验证。     

An integrated risk assessment for climate change: analysing the vulnerability of sharks and rays on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

An Integrated Risk Assessment for Climate Change (IRACC) is developed and applied to assess the vulnerability of sharks and rays on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to climate change. The IRACC merges a traditional climate change vulnerability framework with approaches from fisheries ecological risk assessments. This semi‐quantitative assessment accommodates uncertainty and can be applied at different spatial and temporal scales to identify exposure factors, at‐risk species and their key biological and ecological attributes, critical habitats a`nd ecological processes, and major knowledge gaps. Consequently, the IRACC can provide a foundation upon which to develop climate change response strategies. Here, we describe the assessment process, demonstrate its application to GBR shark and ray species, and explore the issues affecting their vulnerability to climate change. The assessment indicates that for the GBR, freshwater/estuarine and reef associated sharks and rays are most vulnerable to climate change, and that vulnerability is driven by case‐specific interactions of multiple factors and species attributes. Changes in temperature, freshwater input and ocean circulation will have the most widespread effects on these species. Although relatively few GBR sharks and rays were assessed as highly vulnerable, their vulnerability increases when synergies with other factors are considered. This is especially true for freshwater/estuarine and coastal/inshore sharks and rays. Reducing the impacts of climate change on the GBR's sharks and rays requires a range of approaches including mitigating climate change and addressing habitat degradation and sustainability issues. Species‐specific conservation actions may be required for higher risk species (e.g. the freshwater whipray, porcupine ray, speartooth shark and sawfishes) including reducing mortality, preserving coastal catchments and estuarine habitats, and addressing fisheries sustainability. The assessment identified many knowledge gaps concerning GBR habitats and processes, and highlights the need for improved understanding of the biology and ecology of the sharks and rays of the GBR.     

自然生态系统响应气候变化的脆弱性评价研究进展

以气候变暖为标志的全球气候变化已引起各国政府、国际组织和科学工作者的高度重视.气候变化给人类及自然生态系统带来的风险和危害日趋增大.生态系统脆弱性分析和评价是适应和减缓气候变化的关键和基础,已成为近年来气候变化领域和生态学领域的研究热点.目前国内外学者正在不同领域、不同空间尺度上开展响应气候变化的脆弱性评价,其中以自然生态系统为评价对象的脆弱性研究也有了长足的发展.本文通过对脆弱性的概念、气候变化脆弱性评价研究现状、自然生态系统响应气候变化的脆弱性定量评价方法的综述,探讨了该研究领域存在的问题和未来的发展前景.     

Profiling urban vulnerabilities to climate change: An indicator-based vulnerability assessment for European cities

Governing climate change in cities entails a good understanding of urban vulnerabilities. This research presents an Indicator-based Vulnerability Assessment for 571 European cities. Basing on panel data from Urban Audit database and a set of newly developed indicators, we assessed urban vulnerabilities for the following impact chains: (i) heatwaves on human health; (ii) drought on water planning, and; (iii) flooding (sub-divided into pluvial, fluvial and coastal) on the socio-economic tissue and the urban fabric. Results shed light on the key challenges that specific groups of European cities face in order to better deal with the expected impacts of climate change. This knowledge is a necessary step to advance in the understanding of urban risks to climate change and the development of effective EU policies for urban adaptation.     

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change

Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western US, using data on observed climate trends from 1948 to 2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (a) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (b) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (c) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms—niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)—each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together, these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.     

A global assessment of the vulnerability of shellfish aquaculture to climate change and ocean acidification

Human‐induced climate change and ocean acidification (CC‐OA) is changing the physical and biological processes occurring within the marine environment, with poorly understood implications for marine life. Within the aquaculture sector, molluskan culture is a relatively benign method of producing a high‐quality, healthy, and sustainable protein source for the expanding human population. We modeled the vulnerability of global bivalve mariculture to impacts of CC‐OA over the period 2020–2100, under RCP8.5. Vulnerability, assessed at the national level, was dependent on CC‐OA‐related exposure, taxon‐specific sensitivity and adaptive capacity in the sector. Exposure risk increased over time from 2020 to 2100, with ten nations predicted to experience very high exposure to CC‐OA in at least one decade during the period 2020–2100. Predicted high sensitivity in developing countries resulted, primarily, from the cultivation of species that have a narrow habitat tolerance, while in some European nations (France, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) high sensitivity was attributable to the relatively high economic value of the shellfish production sector. Predicted adaptive capacity was low in developing countries primarily due to governance issues, while in some developed countries (Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) it was linked to limited species diversity in the sector. Developing and least developed nations (n = 15) were predicted to have the highest overall vulnerability. Across all nations, 2060 was identified as a tipping point where predicted CC‐OA will be associated with the greatest challenge to shellfish production. However, rapid declines in mollusk production are predicted to occur in the next decade for some nations, notably North Korea. Shellfish culture offers human society a low‐impact source of sustainable protein. This research highlights, on a global scale, the likely extent and nature of the CC‐OA‐related threat to shellfish culture and this sector enabling early‐stage adaption and mitigation.     

Assessing household livelihood vulnerability to climate change: The case of Northwest Vietnam

This study applied livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and livelihood effect index (LEI) to assess vulnerability from climate variability and change of three agricultural and natural resources dependent commune in northwest Vietnam, a country that is expected to bear some of the most severe impacts of climate change. Based on a survey of 335 farm household data, complemented with secondary data on climate factors, a composite index was calculated and differential vulnerabilities were compared. The results of the analysis suggest that one of the communities, “Pa Vay Su,” was more vulnerable than the others, particularly in relation to housing, knowledge and skills, socio-demographics, health and water security, social networks, and livelihood strategy. “Hien Luong” commune, on the other hand, was more vulnerable in relation to other LVI indicators with the exception of food security, climate variability, and natural disasters. “Moc Chau” community was more vulnerable in relation to water security, social demographic than Hien Luong commune. Overall, the article shows that three different vulnerability assessment indices can be broadly applied in comparable setting in other areas of country and they could usefully establish the basis for a nationally applicable index to identify and prioritize adaptation and mitigation needs.     

Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change

Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low‐income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one‐third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub‐Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock‐based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self‐sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform.     

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900–1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.     

Variable choice affects estimations of vulnerability to climate change

For practical reasons, assessments of species' vulnerability to rising temperatures are often limited to measuring responses to a single ecological response variable, but this could result in an underestimation of vulnerability. Using the Cape Rockjumper Chaetops frenatus (‘Rockjumper’) we examined the thermal risk to nestling Rockjumpers for sublethal (i.e. reduced nestling mass gain) and lethal (i.e. increased nest predation) consequences of sustained hot weather under both current and predicted future climatic conditions (RCP 8.5). We used a direct approach to examine these risks, first as independent ecological responses and then as combined risk driven by both response variables (mass gain and predation risk). This study revealed that the inclusion of multiple climate-related responses affected the predicted vulnerability to climate change. Further, our analyses showed that increased vulnerability to climate change will vary within the Rockjumper's habitat. Our results demonstrate that the variability in predicted thermal risk depends on which response variable was used, with implications for how and where conservation practitioners direct their already limited resources.     

Probabilistic spatio‐temporal assessment of vegetation vulnerability to climate change in Swaziland

In a spatially explicit climate change impact assessment, a Bayesian network (BN) model was implemented to probabilistically simulate future response of the four major vegetation types in Swaziland. Two emission scenarios (A2 and B2) from an ensemble of three statistically downscaled coupled atmosphere‐ocean global circulation models (CSIRO‐Mk3, CCCma‐CGCM3 and UKMO‐HadCM3) were used to simulate possible changes in BN‐based environmental envelopes of major vegetation communities. Both physiographic and climatic data were used as predictors representing the 2020s, 2050s and the 2080s periods. A comparison of simulated vegetation distribution and the expert vegetation map under baseline conditions showed an overall correspondence of 97.7% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.966. Although the ensemble projections showed comparable trends during the 2020s, the results from the A2 storyline were more drastic indicating that grassland and the Lebombo bushveld will be impacted negatively as early as the 2020s with about 1 °C temperature increase. The bioclimatically suitable areas of all but one vegetation type decline drastically after about 2 °C warming, more so under the more severe A2 scenario and in particular during the 2080s. The sour bushveld is the only vegetation type that initially responds positively to warming by possibly encroaching to the highly vulnerable grassland areas. Vulnerability of vegetation is increased by the limited ability to migrate into suitable climates due to close affinity to certain geological formations and the fragmentation of the landscape by agriculture and other land uses. This is expected to have serious impacts on biodiversity in the country. Under warmer climates, the likely vegetation types to emerge are uncertain due to future novel combinations of climate and bedrock lithology. The strengths and limitations of the BN approach are also discussed.     

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.     

Species vulnerability to climate change: impacts on spatial conservation priorities and species representation

Climate change may shrink and/or shift plant species ranges thereby increasing their vulnerability and requiring targeted conservation to facilitate adaptation. We quantified the vulnerability to climate change of plant species based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and assessed the effects of including these components in complementarity‐based spatial conservation prioritisation. We modelled the vulnerability of 584 native plant species under three climate change scenarios in an 11.9 million hectare fragmented agricultural region in southern Australia. We represented exposure as species' geographical range under each climate change scenario as quantified using species distribution models. We calculated sensitivity as a function of the impact of climate change on species' geographical ranges. Using a dispersal kernel, we quantified adaptive capacity as species' ability to migrate to new geographical ranges under each climate change scenario. Using Zonation, we assessed the impact of individual components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) on spatial conservation priorities and levels of species representation in priority areas under each climate change scenario. The full vulnerability framework proved an effective basis for identifying spatial conservation priorities under climate change. Including different dimensions of vulnerability had significant implications for spatial conservation priorities. Incorporating adaptive capacity increased the level of representation of most species. However, prioritising sensitive species reduced the representation of other species. We conclude that whilst taking an integrated approach to mitigating species vulnerability to climate change can ensure sensitive species are well‐represented in a conservation network, this can come at the cost of reduced representation of other species. Conservation planning decisions aimed at reducing species vulnerability to climate change need to be made in full cognisance of the sensitivity of spatial conservation priorities to individual components of vulnerability, and the trade‐offs associated with focussing on sensitive species.     

Trait‐based climate vulnerability assessments in data‐rich systems: An application to eastern Bering Sea fish and invertebrate stocks

Trait‐based climate vulnerability assessments based on expert evaluation have emerged as a rapid tool to assess biological vulnerability when detailed correlative or mechanistic studies are not feasible. Trait‐based assessments typically view vulnerability as a combination of sensitivity and exposure to climate change. However, in some locations, a substantial amount of information may exist on system productivity and environmental conditions (both current and projected), with potential disparities in the information available for data‐rich and data‐poor stocks. Incorporating this level of detailed information poses challenges when conducting, and communicating uncertainty from, rapid vulnerability assessments. We applied a trait‐based vulnerability assessment to 36 fish and invertebrate stocks in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), a data‐rich ecosystem. In recent years, the living marine resources of the EBS and Aleutian Islands have supported fisheries worth more than US $1 billion of annual ex‐vessel value. Our vulnerability assessment uses projections (to 2039) from three downscaled climate models, and graphically characterizes the variation in climate projections between climate models and between seasons. Bootstrapping was used to characterize uncertainty in specific biological traits and environmental variables, and in the scores for sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability. The sensitivity of EBS stocks to climate change ranged from “low” to “high,” but vulnerability ranged between “low” and “moderate” due to limited exposure to climate change. Comparison with more detailed studies reveals that water temperature is an important variable for projecting climate impacts on stocks such as walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), and sensitivity analyses revealed that modifying the rule for determining vulnerability increased the vulnerability scores. This study demonstrates the importance of considering several uncertainties (e.g., climate projections, biological, and model structure) when conducting climate vulnerability assessments, and can be extended in future research to consider the vulnerability of user groups dependent on these stocks.     

Translating niche features: Modelling differential exposure of Argentine reptiles to global climate change

Global climate change affects the distributions of ectotherms and may be the cause of several conservation problems, such as great displacement of climatic suitable spaces for species and, consequently, important reductions of the extent of liveable places, threatening the existence of many of them. Species exposure (and hence vulnerability) to global climate change is linked to features of their climatic niches (such as the relative position of the inhabited localities of each species in the climatic space), and therefore to characteristics of their geographic ranges (such as the extent of the distributions or altitudinal range inhabited by the species). In order to analyze the pattern of response of Argentine reptiles to global climate change, we ran phylogenetic generalized least squares models using species exposure to global climate change as a response variable, and (i) niche properties (breadth and position of the species in the climate space) and (ii) general features of the distribution of species (maximum latitude, altitudinal range, maximum elevation, distributional range and proximity to the most important dispersal barrier) as predictors. Our results suggest that the best way to explain climate change exposure is by combining breadth and position of climatic niche of the species or combining geographic features that are indicators of both niche characteristics. Our best model shows that in our study area, species with the narrowest distributional ranges that also inhabit the highest elevations are the most exposed to the effects of global climate change. In this sense, reptile species from Yungas, Puna and Andes ecoregions could be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We believe that these types of models may represent an interesting tool for determining species and places particularly threatened by the effects of global climate change, which should be strongly considered in conservation planning.