British species that are present in Australia have different traits from British species that are not present in Australia

Aim

Introduced species spreading to natural ecosystems is a leading cause of environmental change and a key feature of the Anthropocene. While there have been many studies of the traits of introduced and invasive species, less is known about the traits that affect a species' chances of reaching and establishing in new areas. We asked whether British species that are present in Australia have different traits to British species that are not present in Australia.

Location

Great Britain and Australia.

Methods

We compiled a list of all vascular plant species from Great Britain and divided them into those that are present in Australia (395 species) and those that are not present in Australia (1171 species). We compiled data for each species' seed mass, seedbank longevity, maximum plant height, flower size, flower colour and geographical extent in the British Isles. We conducted independent sample t-tests for continuous variables and Chi-squared tests for categorical variables to determine differences between groups.

Results

We found British species present in Australia have, on average, larger geographic extents in the British Isles, longer periods of seed bank longevity (mean ~3 months as opposed to ~3 weeks), and maximum heights that are on average 36% taller than British species that are not present in Australia. However, British species present in Australia did not have significantly different flower size, flower colour or seed mass from British species that are not present in Australia.

Main Conclusions

British species that are present in Australia and British species that are not present in Australia differ in several traits. These differences likely result from a combination of factors including introduction biases, environmental filters during establishment and stochasticity. Our results suggest that humans may be consciously and unconsciously selecting species for introduction. Some of the traits that are associated with an increased chance of a species being transported to/establishing in a new range also contribute to invasiveness. Thus, anthropogenic introduction biases could contribute to an increased risk of ecosystem invasion.     

The geographical range of British birds expands during 15 years of warming

Capsule Abundance monitoring data suggest that the short-term response of breeding birds to recent warming in Great Britain has been range expansion, caused by poleward shifts of leading range margins and no significant shifts of trailing range margins.

Aims To quantify latitudinal and elevational shifts of breeding bird populations in Great Britain and test for differential shifts in range margins during a period of warming (1994–2009).

Methods We modelled the population density of 80 species as a smooth function of latitude, longitude, elevation and year. Reference points on the distribution curve were used to describe latitudinal and elevational shifts.

Results Across species, poleward shifts in the leading range margin were greater than in the range-centre. The trailing range margin was largely static, providing evidence for significant range expansion. The magnitude of latitudinal range shift lagged behind the equivalent shift in temperature, suggesting that species may be accumulating a climatic debt. There was no evidence for consistent elevational shifts.

Conclusion Contrary to the generally expected long-term consequences of climate change of range contraction, we show that the short-term response to recent warming has been range expansion. This suggests the mechanisms of short-term and long-term consequences of climate change may differ.     

A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species

One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existing methods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.     

Chasing a changing climate: Reproductive and dispersal traits predict how sessile species respond to global warming

Aim

Studies of species' range shifts have become increasingly relevant for understanding ecology and biogeography in the face of accelerated global change. The combination of limited mobility and imperilled status places some species at a potentially greater risk of range loss, extirpation or extinction due to climate change. To assess the ability of organisms with limited movement and dispersal capabilities to track shifts associated with climate change, we evaluated reproductive and dispersal traits of freshwater mussels (Unionida), sessile invertebrates that require species‐specific fish for larval dispersal.

Location

North American Atlantic Slope rivers.

Methods

To understand how unionid mussels may cope with and adapt to current and future warming trends, we identified mechanisms that facilitated their colonization of the northern Atlantic Slope river basins in North America after the Last Glacial Maximum. We compiled species occurrence and life history trait information for each of 55 species, and then selected life history traits for which ample data were available (larval brooding duration, host fish specificity, host infection strategy, and body size) and analysed whether the trait state for each was related to mussel distribution in Atlantic Slope rivers.

Results

Brooding duration (p < .01) and host fish specificity (p = .02) were significantly related to mussel species distribution. Long‐term brooders were more likely than short‐term brooders to colonize formerly glaciated rivers, as were host generalists compared to specialists. Body size and host infection strategy were not predictive of movement into formerly glaciated rivers (p > .10).

Main conclusions

Our results are potentially applicable to many species for which life history traits have not been well‐documented, because reproductive and dispersal traits in unionid mussels typically follow phylogenetic relationships. These findings may help resource managers prioritize species according to climate change vulnerability and predict which species might become further imperilled with climate warming. Finally, we suggest that similar trait‐based decision support frameworks may be applicable for other movement limited taxa.

     

Poleward range expansion without a southern contraction in the ground beetle Agonum viridicupreum (Coleoptera, Carabidae)

We investigated the extent of poleward shifts in the distribution range of Agonum viridicupreum due to climate change in the western Palaearctic. Species' records were obtained from extensive literature sources as well as from collections, and consistent amateur entomologists' recordings. Within the general geographic range of the species, we analyzed in detail two parts of both, the northern and southern distribution range boundaries: (1 and 2) north-western Germany (leading or high-latitude edge), (3) Israel and (4) southern Italy (rear or low-latitude edge). Temporal changes in the occurrence data of the species indicated a northward shift of the leading edge of a minimum of 100 km within the last 50 to 100 years. In contrast, according to the data gathered, the rear edge has not changed during the last decades. Further studies are needed in order to fully understand the underlying mechanisms of the different behaviour of leading and rear range edges of Agonum viridicupreum in the current context of global change. Despite our incomplete understanding, chronosequences of the occurrence of the given species have the potential to optimize climate niche modelling to predict trends in the distribution range in the future.     

Rapid evolution of larval life history,adult immune function and flight muscles in a poleward‐moving damselfly

Although a growing number of studies have documented the evolution of adult dispersal‐related traits at the range edge of poleward‐expanding species, we know little about evolutionary changes in immune function or traits expressed by nondispersing larvae. We investigated differentiation in larval (growth and development) and adult traits (immune function and flight‐related traits) between replicated core and edge populations of the poleward‐moving damselfly Coenagrion scitulum. These traits were measured on individuals reared in a common garden experiment at two different food levels, as allocation trade‐offs may be easier to detect under energy shortage. Edge individuals had a faster larval life history (growth and development rates), a higher adult immune function and a nearly significant higher relative flight muscle mass. Most of the differentiation between core and edge populations remained and edge populations had a higher relative flight muscle mass when corrected for latitude‐specific thermal regimes, and hence could likely be attributed to the range expansion process per se. We here for the first time document a higher immune function in individuals at the expansion front of a poleward‐expanding species and documented the rarely investigated evolution of faster life histories during range expansion. The rapid multivariate evolution in these ecological relevant traits between edge and core populations is expected to translate into changed ecological interactions and therefore has the potential to generate novel eco‐evolutionary dynamics at the expansion front.     

Precocious reproduction increases at the leading edge of a mangrove range expansion

Climate change‐driven shifts in species ranges are ongoing and expected to increase. However, life‐history traits may interact with climate to influence species ranges, potentially accelerating or slowing range shifts in response to climate change. Tropical mangroves have expanded their ranges poleward in the last three decades. Here, we report on a shift at the range edge in life‐history traits related to reproduction and dispersal. With a common garden experiment and field observations, we show that Rhizophora mangle individuals from northern populations reproduce at a younger age than those from southern populations. In a common garden at the northern range limit, 38% of individuals from the northernmost population were reproductive by age 2, but less than 10% of individuals from the southernmost population were reproductive by the same age, with intermediate amounts of reproduction from intermediate latitudes. Field observations show a similar pattern of younger reproductive individuals toward the northern range limit. We also demonstrate a shift toward larger propagule size in populations at the leading range edge, which may aid seedling growth. The substantial increase in precocious reproduction at the leading edge of the R. mangle range could accelerate population growth and hasten the expansion of mangroves into salt marshes.     

Testing the abundant‐centre hypothesis using intertidal porcelain crabs along the Chilean coast: linking abundance and life‐history variation

Aim The abundant‐centre hypothesis (ACH) is based on the assumption that physiological constraints limit populations at the edges of their distributional range, yet the geographical variation of physiological performance or life‐history traits has rarely been examined. Here we examine the applicability of the ACH in a marine system by testing whether physiological predictions are reflected in large‐scale variations of life‐history traits. Location The Chilean coast (18°–42° S), encompassing more than 2500 km along the Pacific coast of South America. Methods Five porcelain crab species (Petrolisthes granulosus, Petrolisthes laevigatus, Petrolisthes tuberculatus, Petrolisthes violaceus and Allopetrolisthes angulosus) were sampled on intertidal boulder beaches at 13 sampling sites. For each species and site we evaluated: (1) relative abundance (density), (2) maximum size, (3) size at maturity, (4) sex ratio, (5) proportion of ovigerous females, and (6) presence of recruits. The shape of the spatial distribution of each trait was evaluated statistically against the prediction of four hypothetical models (normal, ramped‐south, ramped‐north and abundant‐edge). Results The relative abundance and life‐history traits showed different spatial patterns among species. Relative abundance (across sites) was fitted by a normal model in only two species. No model fitted the spatial variation in body size and size at first maturity, which showed a slight but monotonic poleward increase in all species. Sex ratio showed a prominent hump‐shaped pattern, with females prevailing in the centre of the ranges and males dominating towards the range boundaries; this pattern was statistically significant in three of the five studied species. The proportion of ovigerous females showed no clear latitudinal trends, and mature individuals were observed across most of the geographical range of the species. However, recruits tended to be absent towards the southern (poleward) boundaries of the distribution. Main conclusions The ACH does not apply to all species equally. The link between abundance and life‐history traits is complex and variable among the porcelain crab species studied. Overall, the observed patterns were consistent with the idea that equatorward boundaries might be controlled by physiological restrictions mainly affecting adult survival, whereas poleward boundaries might be shaped by limitations in reproductive output and larval survival. Our results underline the importance of incorporating ecological, physiological and life‐history studies in future tests of the ACH.     

Climate tracking by freshwater fishes suggests that fish diversity in temperate lakes may be increasingly threatened by climate warming

Aim

Many freshwater fishes are migrating poleward to more thermally suitable habitats in response to warming climates. In this study, we aimed to identify which freshwater fishes are most sensitive to climatic changes and asked: (i) how fast are lakes warming? (ii) how fast are fishes moving? and (iii) are freshwater fishes tracking climate?

Location

Ontario, Canada.

Methods

We assembled a database containing time series data on climate and species occurrence data from 10,732 lakes between 1986 and 2017. We calculated the rate of lake warming and climate velocity for these lakes. Climate velocities were compared with biotic velocities, specifically the rate at which the northernmost extent of each species shifted north.

Results

Lakes in Ontario warmed by 0.2°C decade⁻¹ on average, at a climate velocity of 9.4 km decade⁻¹ between 1986 and 2017. In response, some freshwater fishes have shifted their northern range boundaries with considerable interspecific variation ranging from species moving southwards at a rate of −58.9 km decade⁻¹ to species ranges moving northwards at a rate of 83.6 km decade⁻¹ over the same time period. More freshwater fish species are moving into northern lakes in Ontario than those being lost. Generally, predators are moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey fishes are being lost from northern lakes.

Main Conclusions

The concurrent loss of cooler refugia, combined with antagonistic competitive and predatory interactions with the range expanding species, has resulted in many commercially important predators moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey species have contracted their northern range edge boundaries. Trophic partitioning of range shifts highlights a previously undocumented observation of the loss of freshwater fishes from lower trophic levels in response to climate-driven migrations.     

Low larval densities in northern populations reinforce range expansion by a Mediterranean damselfly

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Climate-driven range dynamics of the freshwater limpet, Ancylus fluviatilis (Pulmonata, Basommatophora)

Aim Our aim was to understand the processes that have shaped the present‐day distribution of the freshwater limpet Ancylus fluviatilis sensu stricto in order to predict the consequences of global climate change for the geographical range of this species. Location North‐western Europe. Methods We sampled populations of A. fluviatilis sensu stricto over the entire range of the species (north‐western Europe) and sequenced 16S ribosomal RNA (16S) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) mitochondrial fragments to perform phylogenetic and phylogeographical analyses. Climatic niche modelling allowed us to infer the climatic preferences of the species. A principal components analysis identified the most important climatic factors explaining the actual range of A. fluviatilis. We also identified which climatic factor was the most limiting at range margins, and predicted the species’ geographical range under a climate change scenario [Community Climate Model 3 (CCM3)]. Results By means of the phylogeographical analysis, we infer that A. fluviatilis sensu stricto occupied northern refuges during the Last Glacial Maximum. We show that the climatic preferences of Baltic populations are significantly different from those of Central European populations. The projection of the occupied area under the CCM3 climate model predicts a moderate poleward shift of the northern range limits, but a dramatic loss of areas currently occupied, for instance in northern Germany and in southern Great Britain. Main conclusions The post‐glacial range dynamics of A. fluviatilis are not governed by niche conservatism. Therefore, we must be cautious about bioclimatic model predictions: the expected impact of climate change could be tempered by the adaptive potential this species has already shown in its evolutionary history. Thus, modelling approaches should rather be seen as conservative forecasts of altered species ranges as long as the adaptive potential of the organisms in question cannot be predicted.     

Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae

Aim

To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change.

Location

South African Cape Floristic Region.

Methods

We use data‐driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species‐specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long‐distance dispersal on top of expected spatio‐temporal dynamics of suitable habitat.

Results

Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography.

Main conclusions

Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data‐driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.

     

Forecasted range shifts of arid-land fishes in response to climate change

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according to fish traits. We examined relationships among traits and range shift metrics either singly using univariate linear modeling or combined with multivariate redundancy analysis. We found that trophic and dispersal traits were associated with shifts at the leading and trailing edges, respectively, although projected range shifts were largely unexplained by traits. As expected, piscivores and omnivores with broader diets shifted upslope most at the leading edge while more specialized invertivores exhibited minimal changes. Fishes that were more mobile shifted upslope most at the trailing edge, defying predictions. No traits explained changes in range center or size. Finally, current preference explained multivariate range shifts, as fishes with faster current preferences exhibited smaller multivariate changes. Although range shifts were largely unexplained by traits, more specialized invertivorous fishes with lower dispersal propensity or greater current preference may require the greatest conservation efforts because of their limited capacity to shift ranges under climate change.     

Fishing pressure and species traits affect stream fish invasions both directly and indirectly

Aim

We sought to identify direct and indirect effects of factors contributing to establishment and spread of 272 stream fish species.

Location

Two hundred and ninety‐seven watersheds in the eastern United States.

Methods

We modelled two variables: (1) whether a species had become established outside its native range (establishment) and (2) the number of watersheds in which species established outside their native range (spread). We estimated these variables by comparing historical distributions to a rich data set of contemporary sampling. We calculated metrics of human use (indexing propagule pressure), and gathered species trait data from an open‐access database. We then used piecewise path analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of human use, native range size and species traits on the two metrics of species introductions.

Results

We identified a hierarchical causal structure in which native range size and fishing pressure were important direct determinants of introductions. Species traits had some direct effects, but played a more indirect role. Native range size was significantly affected by thermal tolerance and diet breadth. Likewise, fishing pressure was significantly affected by life history strategy: larger‐bodied, longer‐living and more fecund species were positively associated with fishing pressure.

Main conclusions

Functional traits can confer an advantage to some species during the establishment phase, but human use is important for subsequent dispersal throughout the non‐native range. However, human use is non‐random, and is largely a function of species traits. Considering both direct and indirect effects of traits across stages of the invasion process can help to elucidate the full role of traits in species invasions.

     

Warming drives poleward range contractions of Beringian endemic plant species at high latitudes

Aim

Species are expected to disperse poleward in response to climate change. For species that are endemic to the high latitudes, this implies that many in the future would face a “no-where-to-go” situation as they are currently occupying the northernmost portion of the continent. Further, because endemism may arise from a combination of physical barriers, climate and geological history, the persistence of many species may require spatial matching of multiple environmental factors within a limited dispersal space. Thus, it is not clear how endemic species might spatially adjust their distributions in response to climate change and whether there are future climate change refugia for these species.

Location

Northwest North America.

Taxa

Plants.

Time Period

Current and the future (2040).

Methods

We used ensemble bioclimatic models to evaluate drivers and directional patterns of future change in the distributions of 66 North American Beringian and amphi-Beringian species currently occurring in Alaska and the Yukon. We explored the spatial pattern of species richness, losses and climate change refugia across the region.

Results

More than 80% of the species showed northward shifts in their latitudinal centroids under intermediate warming and are expected to shift their range northward by more than 140 km on average by 2040. Additionally, more than 60% were projected to experience range contractions and up to 20% of the species would have the potential to expand their ranges by more than 100%.

Main Conclusions

Suitable habitat for endemic species in northwest North America is expected to decline significantly, especially for species occupying the Arctic tundra. Although the models identified several potential refugia from future climate change, especially at high latitude and elevation, whether the species would be able to colonize new habitats on their own and/or capitalize sufficiently on in situ refugia remains a pertinent conservation question.     

Phenotypic variability of rusty crayfish (Faxonius rusticus) at the leading edge of its riverine invasion

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Forecasting the combined effects of climate and land use change on Mexican bats

Aim

Climate and land use change are among the most important threatening processes driving biodiversity loss, especially in the tropics. Although the potential impacts of each threat have been widely studied in isolation, few studies have assessed the impacts of climate and land cover change in combination. Here, we evaluate the exposure of a large mammalian clade, bats, to multiple scenarios of environmental change and dispersal to understand potential consequences for biodiversity conservation.

Location

Mexico.

Methods

We used ensemble species distribution models to forecast changes in environmental suitability for 130 bat species that occur in Mexico by 2050s under four dispersal assumptions and four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We identified regions with the strongest projected impacts for each scenario and assessed the overlap across scenarios.

Results

The combined effects of climate and land use change will cause an average reduction in environmental suitability for 51% of the species across their range, regardless of scenario. Overall, species show a mean decrease in environmental suitability in at least 46% of their current range in all scenarios of change and dispersal. Climate scenarios had a higher impact on species environmental suitability than land use scenarios. There was a spatial overlap of 43% across the four environmental change scenarios for the regions projected to have the strongest impacts.

Main conclusions

Combined effects of future environmental change may result in substantial declines in environmental suitability for Mexican bats even under optimistic scenarios. This study highlights the vulnerability of megadiverse regions and an indicator taxon to human disturbance. The consideration of combined threats can make an important difference in how we react to changes to conserve our biodiversity as they pose different challenges.

     

Higher investment in flight morphology does not trade off with fecundity estimates in a poleward range‐expanding damselfly

1. Evolutionary increases in dispersal‐related traits are frequently documented during range expansions. Investment in flight‐related traits is energetically costly and a trade‐off with fecundity may be expected during range expansion. 2. However, in contrast to wing‐dimorphic species, this trade‐off is not general in wing‐monomorphic species. In the absence of a dispersal‐‐fecundity trade‐off, an increased investment in clutch size at the expansion front is expected possibly at a cost of reduced offspring size. 3. The study evaluated investment in female flight morphology and fecundity‐related traits (clutch size, hatchling size) and potential trade‐offs among these traits in replicated populations of the poleward range‐expanding damselfly Coenagrion scitulum. 4. Females at the expansion front had a higher relative thorax length, indicating an increased investment in flight; this can be explained by spatial sorting of dispersal ability or in situ natural selection at the expansion front. Edge females produced larger hatchlings, however, this pattern was totally driven by the population‐specific thermal larval regimes and could not be attributed to the range expansion per se. By contrast, clutch sizes did not differ between core and edge populations. There was no signal of a dispersal–fecundity trade‐off either for a trade‐off between clutch size and hatchling size. 5. These results indicate that evolution of a higher dispersal ability at the expansion front of C. scitulum does not trade off with investment in fecundity, hence a dispersal–fecundity trade‐off is unlikely to slow down range expansion of this species.     

Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters

Modern climate change is producing poleward range shifts of numerous taxa, communities and ecosystems worldwide. The response of species to changing environments is likely to be determined largely by population responses at range margins. In contrast to the expanding edge, the low-latitude limit (rear edge) of species ranges remains understudied, and the critical importance of rear edge populations as long-term stores of species' genetic diversity and foci of speciation has been little acknowledged. We review recent findings from the fossil record, phylogeography and ecology to illustrate that rear edge populations are often disproportionately important for the survival and evolution of biota. Their ecological features, dynamics and conservation requirements differ from those of populations in other parts of the range, and some commonly recommended conservation practices might therefore be of little use or even counterproductive for rear edge populations.     

Dispersal and the interspecific abundance-occupancy relationship in British birds

Aim To test the prediction that deviations of species from the positive interspecific relationship between abundance and occupancy (a measure of geographical range size) are related to differences in dispersal. Location Great Britain. Methods Quantitative data on the abundances, occupancy and dispersal distances of British birds are compared using phylogenetic comparative methods. Results Measures of natal and adult dispersal distance, and the intraspecific variance in these parameters, explain little variation in occupancy in addition to that accounted for by population size. Individual dispersal variables failed to explain significant variance when added individually to a model with population size as a predictor. Migrants and species using wet habitats tend to disperse further than residents and dry habitat species. Analysing these four groups separately revealed effects of dispersal only on the occupancy attained by dry habitat species. Conclusions The only consistent predictor of occupancy in these analyses was population size.