Use of DNA fingerprinting in planning a breeding program for the riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis)

The riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis) is an endangered and endemic species found within a small geographic range in semiarid southern Africa. A captive breeding program has been initiated for reintroducing rabbits into suitable but vacant habitat. DNA fingerprinting was used to identify individuals within a captive group suitable for inclusion in a larger captive breeding program. This methodology allowed the ranking of suitabilities of these individuals, and the results emphasize the need to capture wild rabbits over a wide geographic area for setting up a larger founder population. A statistical technique for inferring linkage between fingerprint probes was used. Fingerprinting methodology allowed a genetic basis for planning the captive breeding program. © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Population modelling and genetics of a critically endangered Madagascan palm Tahina spectabilis

Madagascar is home to 208 indigenous palm species, almost all of them endemic and >80% of which are endangered. We undertook complete population census and sampling for genetic analysis of a relatively recently discovered giant fan palm, the Critically Endangered Tahina spectablis in 2008 and 2016. Our 2016 study included newly discovered populations and added to our genetic study. We incorporated these new populations into species distribution niche model (SDM) and projected these onto maps of the region. We developed population matrix models based on observed demographic data to model population change and predict the species vulnerability to extinction by undertaking population viability analysis (PVA). We investigated the potential conservation value of reintroduced planted populations within the species potential suitable habitat. We found that the population studied in 2008 had grown in size due to seedling regeneration but had declined in the number of reproductively mature plants, and we were able to estimate that the species reproduces and dies after approximately 70 years. Our models suggest that if the habitat where it resides continues to be protected the species is unlikely to go extinct due to inherent population decline and that it will likely experience significant population growth after approximately 80 years due to the reproductive and life cycle attributes of the species. The newly discovered populations contain more genetic diversity than the first discovered southern population which is genetically depauperate. The species appears to demonstrate a pattern of dispersal leading to isolated founder plants which may eventually lead to population development depending on local establishment opportunities. The conservation efforts currently put in place including the reintroduction of plants within the species potential suitable habitat if maintained are thought likely to enable the species to sustain itself but it remains vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts.     

Potential distribution of the critically endangered dragonfly Libellula angelina (Odonata: Libellulidae) under shared socio-economic pathways

Libellula angelina is an endangered dragonfly species that is native to East Asia. Recently, their population has become severely reduced through habitat loss. To protect L. angelina populations, we need to understand which factors determine their distribution and how their potential habitats will change in the future. In this study, the habitat preference of L. angelina was identified through field surveys, and the potential distribution of L. angelina and the impact of integrated climate–land cover changes were simulated using the MaxEnt model. Furthermore, the wetland loss scenario was applied to areas where the current trend in wetland loss will continue in the future. The field survey identified that L. angelina prefers small inland wetlands: permanent freshwater, ponds; permanent rivers, ponds; irrigated land; and estuarine waters. From the MaxEnt results, altitude was the variable with the greatest contribution and distance from wetlands was the most unique variable. MaxEnt described the geographic pattern of occurrences under the current climate well, with few areas requiring any further survey. In the future projection, the potential habitat area was increased by up to 48.8% and 30.6% in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. However, potential habitat loss was expected if wetlands continue to decline as they have done in the last 20 years. The wetland loss scenario resulted in potential habitat losses of 1.9%–2.3% and 4.5%–6.1% in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Therefore, to protect L. angelina populations we must minimize the loss of current populations, secure wetlands and strengthen the connectivity between wetlands.     

Climate-based ensemble modelling to evaluate the global distribution of Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky)

1. Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a forest pest that damages a wide range of trees in areas where it has recently been introduced, demanding a proactive evaluation of its possible future distribution.
2. This study aimed to project the potential distribution of A. glabripennis using species distribution modelling and constructed an ensemble map for evaluating global risk areas.
3. We used CLIMEX and MaxEnt to evaluate the potential distribution of A. glabripennis as a function of current and future climates.
4. The results showed that the models predicted a high probability of A. glabripennis distribution where this species is currently found, and the suitable climate was shifted northward due to climate change.
5. The projected area differed between the models because of different modelling algorithm and climate change scenario; thus, an ensemble map projecting the consensus areas from two models was constructed to identify the risk areas that corresponded to the eastern United States, Europe, and native countries, Korea and China, and nearby Japan.
6. From the perspective of ensemble modelling for evaluating species distributions with reduced uncertainties, this study will enhance the model reliability for defining areas at risk of A. glabripennis occurrence.

     

Combining population genetics,species distribution modelling and field assessments to understand a species vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is recognized as a major threat to biodiversity. Multidisciplinary approaches that combine population genetics and species distribution modelling to assess these threats and recommend conservation actions are critical but rare. Combined, these methods provide independent verification and a more compelling case for developing conservation actions. This study integrates these data streams together with field assessments and spatial analyses to develop future genetic resource management recommendations. The study species was Callistemon teretifolius (Needle Bottlebrush), a shrub species endemic to the Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges, South Australia, and potentially vulnerable to climate change. Chloroplast microsatellite and Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism data were combined with species distribution modelling (MaxEnt), spatial analysis and field assessment to evaluate climate change vulnerability. Two major genetic groups were identified (Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges). Populations in the Flinders Ranges, especially the Southern Flinders Ranges exhibited the highest genetic diversity, indicating a possible genetic refugium. Lower genetic diversity to the south in the Mount Lofty Ranges and north in the Gammon Ranges may be due to post‐glacial expansion into these areas from the Flinders Ranges or loss of alleles. Low levels of contemporary gene flow were identified, which suggests Callistemon teretifolius may have a limited capacity to respond to climate change through migration. Range restrictions were predicted for all future climates, especially in the north. It is likely that C. teretifolius will be adversely affected by climate change, due to limited gene flow, predicted range restriction and loss of suitable habitat. The Southern Flinders Ranges should be a priority for conservation because it contains the highest number of individuals and genetic diversity. We recommend monitoring and adaptive management involving restoration in the Southern Flinders Ranges, potentially incorporating genetic translocations from other areas to capture diversity, to assist C. teretifolius to adapt to climate change.     

Species distribution modelling of the endangered Mahogany Glider (Petaurus gracilis) reveals key areas for targeted survey and conservation

The Mahogany Glider (Petaurus gracilis) is one of the most endangered marsupials in Australia. Its known distribution is an approximately 120 km strip of fragmented coastal woodland in north-east Queensland, from north of Townsville to the Tully area. Records are clustered in a number of well-surveyed areas, with significant areas of lowland habitat unsurveyed. Around 30% of historic records fall in areas that were subsequently cleared for farmland, and ongoing clearing and fragmentation of lowland sclerophyll forest continues within the potential distribution. Resolving the distribution is an urgent requirement to guide conservation but Mahogany Gliders are difficult to detect in the field. Species distribution modelling offers a technique for estimating the fine-scale distribution and for targeting further field survey and conservation efforts. We used known occurrence records (N = 481) to predict the distribution of Mahogany Gliders across the Wet Tropics bioregion. We used climatic, topographic and other environmental predictors to generate distribution models using Maxent and Random Forest algorithms, each with two bias correction methods. The predictions revealed that many unknown populations may exist within the currently defined distribution and in important areas beyond this (e.g. Hinchinbrook Island). There was reasonable congruence between models, and we include syntheses of the models to present the most likely current distribution. The most important predictor variables across the models were precipitation seasonality (high seasonality), elevation (generally <100 m), soil type (hydrosols) and vegetation type (including Eucalyptus and Melaleuca woodlands). Our results identify core habitat and reveal key areas that require targeted field surveys. Importantly, the predicted suitable habitat is highly fragmented and ongoing conservation efforts need to improve habitat connectivity and limit further fragmentation.     

气候变化对阔叶红松林潜在地理分布区的影响

物种地理分布主要取决于它对气候、地形等环境因子的适应性。基于22个环境因子和阔叶红松林的4类主要建群树种——红松、紫椴、水曲柳和蒙古栎的地理分布数据,采用最大熵模型模拟了阔叶红松林的潜在分布区域,并分析决定阔叶红松林地理分布的主要气候和地形因子,最后利用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的3种排放场景(SRES-A2、SRES-A1B、SRES-B1)下2020、2050、2080年的气候数据预测阔叶红松林的未来潜在分布区。结果表明:各树种的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)都大于0.8,说明模型有很好的预测能力;影响阔叶红松林分布的主导环境因子是年降雨量、季节性降雨量、海拔、年平均温度、最湿季度的平均温度。在基准气候条件下,阔叶红松林的高度适宜分布区主要分布在长白山和小兴安岭地区,占研究区总面积的11.69%,低度适宜区面积、不适宜区面积分别占研究区总面积的23%和65.31%。模型预测结果显示,未来在A2、A1B和B1气候情景下,阔叶红松林高度适宜区的南界与北界都向北移动,其面积有缩减的趋势,而低度适宜区的面积有增加的趋势。     

Heterozygote excess in ancient populations of the critically endangered Dioon caputoi (Zamiaceae,Cycadales) from central Mexico

Dioon caputoi is a long‐lived cycad known from only four populations that range in size from 50 to 120, mostly adult individuals. Dioon caputoi has the most narrow geographical range of all Dioon spp. (less than 10 km), existing completely within the boundaries of the Tehuacán–Cuicatlán Biosphere Reserve, Mexico. Negative inbreeding values were found in all four populations (F_IT = ?0.242) and within subpopulations (F_IS = ?0.379). Only c. 10% of the total genetic variation was partitioned among populations (F_ST = 0.099). We also found that most mean values of genetic variation (A = 1.91 ± 0.12; P = 78.9 ± 10.2; H_E = 0.35 ± 0.01) are within the range reported for other Dioon species with larger populations and with wider geographical ranges. These results support recent findings that rare plant species maintain high levels of genetic diversity. The heterozygote excess found at all loci is discussed in detail from a neutral evolutionary perspective, leaving arguments as working hypotheses for further research. © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2008, 158 , 436–447.     

Population status of the Simeulue monkey (Macaca fascicularis fusca)

The oceanic island of Simeulue, west of Sumatra, is inhabited by a distinct subspecies of the long-tailed macaque (Macaca fascicularis fusca) [Miller, 1903]. In January 1982 and March 1984, a survey was conducted to establish its population status. The monkey is morphologically different from other Sunda shelf M. fascicularis populations. In productive habitats, it lives in small groups (10–15 individuals) and reaches a density of more than one monkey/hectare (ha). The island's total population is estimated to be at least 50,000. The authors suggest that the location of a proposed reserve be shifted to include more of the most favorable habitat, i.e., alluvial forest.     

Geographical distribution modelling of the bronze bug: a worldwide invasion

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Niche modelling to guide conservation actions in France for the endangered crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes in relation to the invasive Pacifastacus leniusculus

1. The white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) is globally endangered due to the impacts of habitat modification and fragmentation, water pollution, climate change, and invasive species, particularly the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus). These pressures have caused the decline of A. pallipes populations in Europe, demonstrating the importance of predicting the species' potential distribution under current and future conditions. Focusing on the watercourses of mainland France, we aimed to identify suitable areas for A. pallipes to guide the conservation of current populations and future introduction actions or protection measures.
2. We applied ecological niche modelling to model the potential distribution of both A. pallipes and P. leniusculus and identified locations suitable for A. pallipes only. We also assessed the potential distribution of the species under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively describing low-warming and high-warming conditions.
3. We found that A. pallipes and P. leniusculus exploit equivalent niches in France. Despite this, under current conditions, about 5% of the study area simultaneously records a high suitability for A. pallipes and a low suitability for P. leniusculus and is therefore of significant conservation interest. This percentage remains relatively stable under RCP 2.6 for 2050 and 2100, but decreases to 2% under RCP 8.5 for 2100.
4. Ecological niche modelling can supply crucial guidance for conservation actions aimed at protecting endangered species at a national scale by identifying sites most suitable for protection and sites where climate change and invasive species constitute a threat.

     

气候变化对东北濒危动物驼鹿潜在生境的影响

气候变化是造成生物多样性下降和物种灭绝的主要因素之一。研究气候变化对物种生境,尤其是濒危物种生境影响对未来保护物种多样性和保持生态系统功能完整性具有重要意义。以驼鹿乌苏里亚种(Alces alces cameloides)为研究对象,选取了对驼鹿分布可能存在影响的22个环境因子,利用最大熵(Maxent)模型模拟了驼鹿基准气候条件下在我国东北的潜在生境分布,并预测了RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种气候变化情景下2041—2060年(2050s)、2061—2080年(2070s)驼鹿潜在分布,采用接收工作曲线下面积(AUC)对模型预测能力进行评估。研究结果表明:最大熵模型预测驼鹿潜在生境分布的精度较高(平均AUC值为0.845),22个环境因子中,年均温、最暖季均温、年降水、平均日较差是影响驼鹿生境分布的主要因子。基准气候条件下,驼鹿的潜在生境面积占研究区域总面积的36.4%,潜在生境分布区主要在大、小兴安岭。随着时间的推移,研究区内驼鹿当前潜在生境面积明显减少,而新增潜在生境面积较少,总面积呈现急剧减少的趋势,其中RCP8.5情景减少程度大于RCP4.5情景。至2050s阶段,当前潜在生境面积平均将减少62.3%,新增潜在分布面积平均仅为3.6%,总潜在生境面积最高将减少65.6%,平均将减少58.8%;至2070s阶段,当前潜在生境面积平均将减少75.8%,新增潜在分布面积平均仅为1.9%,总潜在生境面积最高将减少93.1%,平均减少73.9%。空间分布上,驼鹿的潜在生境的几何中心将先向西北移动,然后再向高纬度地区西南方向迁移,至2050s阶段,潜在分布生境的几何中心在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的迁移距离分别为183.5 km和210.8 km;至2070s阶段,相应情景下的迁移距离将缩短至28.7 km和33.8 km。潜在生境分布整体呈现向高海拔、高纬度迁移的趋势。     

Population genetics and conservation priorities for the critically endangered island endemic Delphinium pentagynum subsp. formenteranum (Ranunculaceae)

Isozyme electrophoresis was used to evaluate levels of genetic diversity and population genetic structure of the critically endangered (CR) perennial larkspur, Delphinium pentagynum subsp. formenteranum (Ranunculaceae), endemic to the island of Formentera (Balearic Islands, Spain). There is only one known population for this taxon, containing only 480 individuals. Moderate values of diversity were detected (P = 40.7%, A = 1.6 and H _e = 0.180), within the range observed in other surveyed larkspurs, but higher than most island endemics. Moderate levels of inbreeding were detected, probably as a consequence of the population's genetic structuring (biparental inbreeding). Threats to this taxon are mainly anthropogenic (fires, grazing, pathway works, and building pressures), although given that only one population exists, stochastic risks cannot be ignored. Conservation of D. pentagynum subsp. formenteranum requires in situ strategies, such as implementing a monitoring program and establishing a botanical reserve, and ex situ strategies, such as collection and long-term storage of seeds.     

山西翅果油树的适生区预测及其对气候变化的响应

研究濒危物种生境在气候变化下的响应对保护物种多样性和保持生态系统功能完整性具有重要意义.本文选取我国特有濒危植物翅果油树为研究对象,以该物种73个野外调查数据和35个环境因子为基础,应用最大熵模型对山西翅果油树当前的适生分布区进行预测;进而结合政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告发布的气候模式数据,探讨未来不同气候情景下山西翅果油树分布格局的变化趋势.结果表明:受试者工作特征曲线分析法的AUC值为0.987,表明模型的模拟精度很好且预测可靠性高;刀切法检验结果显示,降水量季节变化、温度年变化范围、年均温、等温线、表层土p H值和年降水量是影响翅果油树分布的主要环境因子,其累积贡献率达到了94.8%;当前,山西翅果油树的适生区主要集中在山西省吕梁山南部和中条山地带;未来不同气候情景下,到21世纪70年代翅果油树适生区面积均有不同幅度的缩减,低浓度情景(RCP 2.6)下呈先增后减趋势,中高浓度情景(RCP 4.5和RCP8.5)下响应较敏感且呈先减后增趋势.两个不同适生区的空间分布格局对气候变化也有不同的响应,吕梁山南部表现出纬度方向的轻微波动,而中条山地带则是海拔方向的迁移.     

Incorporating biotic interactions in the distribution models of African wild silk moths (Gonometa species,Lasiocampidae) using different representations of modelled host tree distributions

Biotic interactions influence species niches and may thus shape distributions. Nevertheless, species distribution modelling has traditionally relied exclusively on environmental factors to predict species distributions, while biotic interactions have only seldom been incorporated into models. This study tested the ability of incorporating biotic interactions, in the form of host plant distributions, to increase model performance for two host‐dependent lepidopterans of economic interest, namely the African silk moth species, Gonometa postica and Gonometa rufobrunnea (Lasiocampidae). Both species are dependent on a small number of host tree species for the completion of their life cycle. We thus expected the host plant distribution to be an important predictor of Gonometa distributions. Model performance of a species distribution model trained only on abiotic predictors was compared to four species distribution models that additionally incorporated biotic interactions in the form of four different representations of host plant distributions as predictors. We found that incorporating the moth–host plant interactions improved G. rufobrunnea model performance for all representations of host plant distribution, while for G. postica model performance only improved for one representation of host plant distribution. The best performing representation of host plant distribution differed for the two Gonometa species. While these results suggest that incorporating biotic interactions into species distribution models can improve model performance, there is inconsistency in which representation of the host tree distribution best improves predictions. Therefore, the ability of biotic interactions to improve species distribution models may be context‐specific, even for species which have obligatory interactions with other organisms.     

Impacts by feral goats on critically endangered Crepidiastrum grandicollum (Compositae) endemic to the Ogasawara Islands

Oceanic islands are biodiversity hotspots with highly endemic ecosystems that are vulnerable to invasive alien species. Understanding the status of endangered species and identifying threats have the highest priority for insular biodiversity conservation. The two remaining populations of endangered Crepidiastrum grandicollum on Chichi-jima Island were studied for 5 years to describe their status and evaluate the impacts of feral goats (Capra hircus). The main cause of population decline was browsing by goats. The populations protected by the exclosures were stable but declined after an exclosure was removed. Even in the protected population, regeneration was limited outside the exclosures and in 1 year of the survey, a high proportion of feeding damage by moth larvae was observed in one population. These facts indicate that exclosures are not a sufficient conservation measure, and eradication of goats and population restoration in novel habitats are necessary to reduce the extinction risk of C. grandicollum.     

Species Distribution Modelling predicts habitat suitability and reduction of suitable habitat under future climatic scenario for Sclerophrys perreti: A critically endangered Nigerian endemic toad

Sclerophrys perreti is a critically endangered Nigerian native frog currently imperilled by human activities. A better understanding of its potential distribution and habitat suitability will aid in conservation; however, such knowledge is limited for S. perreti. Herein, we used a species distribution model (SDM) approach with all known occurrence data (n = 22) from our field surveys and primary literature, and environmental variable predictors (19 bioclimatic variables, elevation and land cover) to elucidate habitat suitability and impact of climate change on this species. The SDM showed that temperature and precipitation were the predictors of habitat suitability for S. perreti with precipitation seasonality as the strongest predictor of habitat suitability. The following variable also had a significant effect on habitat suitability: temperature seasonality, temperature annual range, precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of wettest quarter and isothermality. The model predicted current suitable habitat for S. perreti covering an area of 1,115 km². However, this habitat is predicted to experience 60% reduction by 2050 owing to changes in temperature and precipitation. SDM also showed that suitable habitat exists in south-eastern range of the inselberg with predicted low impact of climate change compared to other ranges. Therefore, this study recommends improved conservation measures through collaborations and stakeholder's meeting with local farmers for the management and protection of S. perreti.     

Distribution status and habitat characteristics of the endangered freshwater fish,Microphysogobio rapidus (Cyprinidae)

To investigate distribution, habitat characteristics, and current conservation status of the endangered endemic species, rapid small gudgeon Microphysogobio rapidus (Cyprinidae), we surveyed a total of 79 sites from the historic records (20 sites) plus additional sites (59 sites) with good habitat conditions, analyzed their sites, and compared them with historic recorded sites to reveal the factors of extinction threats and causes. We found only eight out of 79 sites in the Nam River areas. The habitats were greatly reduced and restricted compared with the historic sites, which mainly cause from habitat modification, such as various types of river renovations at the main stream and tributary streams of the Nakdong River. The present habitats are higher water temperature and more number of fish species than the absent ones, but conductivity, total nitrogen, and number of weir are lower. In addition, the present sites are lower low velocity at pool and higher mean substrate at pool. From this study, we suggest that maintaining good water quality and preventing anthropogenic impacts greatly aid conservation of the M. rapidus in South Korea.     

Geographic distribution of phlebotomine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Central-West Brazil

This study updates the geographic distributions of phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil and analyses the climatic factors associated with their occurrence. The data were obtained from the entomology services of the state departments of health in Central-West Brazil, scientific collections and a literature review of articles from 1962-2014. Ecological niche models were produced for sandfly species with more than 20 occurrences using the Maxent algorithm and eight climate variables. In all, 2,803 phlebotomine records for 127 species were analysed. Nyssomyia whitmani, Evandromyia lenti and Lutzomyia longipalpis were the species with the greatest number of records and were present in all the biomes in Central-West Brazil. The models, which were produced for 34 species, indicated that the Cerrado areas in the central and western regions of Central-West Brazil were climatically more suitable to sandflies. The variables with the greatest influence on the models were the temperature in the coldest months and the temperature seasonality. The results show that phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil have different geographical distribution patterns and that climate conditions in essentially the entire region favour the occurrence of at least one Leishmania vector species, highlighting the need to maintain or intensify vector control and surveillance strategies.