Seasonality of births in Croatia

The aim of this paper was to investigate seasonal fluctuations of the number of births in Croatia. Vital registration data from the years 1970-2002 was used for analysis of the quarterly data (from the years 1970-1997), and monthly data (from the years 1998-2002). Both data sets were smoothed, using seasonal variation removal for quarterly data, and T4253H smoothing for monthly data. Edwards test and Ratchet circular scan tests were used in analysis. The results showed an increase in the summer birth proportion and decrease in the spring birth proportion, distorted during the wartime period (1991-1995). Monthly analysis reveals highest birth proportion in Croatia during July-September period, with peak date moving towards the end of summer, and reaching stability in the beginning of September during the years 2000-2002. This presumes highest conception rate during the beginning of the Christmas holiday season. Secondary peak in January was found in some years, which presumably sets second period of increased conception rate into the Easter holiday season, supporting the observation of the holiday-related birth peaks. Both quarterly and monthly data indicate a birth pattern that does not resemble either "European", or "American" seasonal pattern. Regional analysis showed lack of seasonality in the capital city of Zagreb and either intermittent or stable seasonality pattern in the rest of the country.     

Effects of maternal birth season on birth seasonality in the Canadian population during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries

Birth records of the French-Canadian population for the period 1621-1765 were analyzed retrospectively to examine the effect of maternal birth season on the seasonal distribution of births. Preliminary examination indicated that there was a bimodal pattern in birth seasonality: a major peak in early spring, a trough in early summer, a minor peak in autumn, and a trough around December. Because this seasonality was strongly biased at the level of the first birth by the month of marriage, which was concentrated in November, the seasonality of nonfirst births (n = 32,926) was examined in relation to the four seasons of maternal birth. Mothers born in May-July showed a flatter monthly distribution of nonfirst births at a maternal age of 28 years or more. Analysis of marriage-first birth intervals indicated that mothers who married in August-October showed a lower percentage of immediate conception (intervals of 8-10 months), whereas those mothers born in May-July had a higher percentage of immediate conception. This difference in birth seasonality shown by mothers born in May-July is similar to results from early twentieth-century Japan. Some seasonal infertility factors could have affected the embryos at the earliest stage of pregnancy, modifying a part of the seasonal variation in birth rate.     

Seasonality in the incidence of cervical carcinoma in teenagers and young adults in Northern England, 1968-2005

Infection with human papillomavirus is an established risk factor for cervical carcinoma. However, the role of other environmental factors is less well established. To further investigate whether other agents may be involved, the authors have analyzed seasonal variation in cervical cancer with respect to month of birth and separately month of diagnosis. All 85 cases diagnosed in 15-24-yr-olds during the period 1968-2005 were extracted from the specialist population-based Northern Region Young Persons' Malignant Disease Registry. The chi-square heterogeneity test was used to assess overall nonuniform variation in month of birth and separately month of diagnosis. Poisson regression analysis was used to fit sinusoidal (harmonic) models to the data using month of birth and month of diagnosis in separate models. Based on month of birth, there was statistically significant heterogeneity (p=.03) and a significant sinusoidal pattern, with an incidence peak involving births in the autumn months (p=.03). Based on month of diagnosis, there was marginally significant heterogeneity (p=.06). The evidence of seasonal variation around time of birth for cervical carcinoma is highly novel and suggests possible early etiological involvement of environmental factors.     

大兴安岭中部天然次生林种子雨动态

本研究于2018—2019年对大兴安岭中部白桦林、针叶林和针阔混交林3种林型的种子雨落种量进行了动态监测,并对3种林型主要树种的种子雨季节动态、落叶动态、种子雨千粒重、种子雨年际变化和种子雨空间格局进行了分析。结果表明: 各林型中兴安落叶松种子雨和白桦种子雨呈现明显的单峰型分布。针阔树种(落叶松、樟子松、云杉、白桦、山杨)的落叶量呈现出明显的季节动态,各林型落叶量大多在9月中上旬达到高峰。在针阔混交林和针叶林中,处于高峰期的兴安落叶松种子雨千粒重明显大于初始期和末尾期的兴安落叶松种子雨千粒重,3种林型下白桦千粒重在季节上未表现出明显的差异。兴安落叶松和白桦的种子雨均呈现出明显的年际变化,2018年为种子散种量的丰年,2019年为歉年。两年时间内,所有种子雨的空间格局在总体上均表现为聚集分布,种子雨和幼苗幼树在空间分布格局上存在一致性。     

Seasonality of births is associated with seasonality of marriages in Malta

This study was carried out to quantify secular trends in seasonal variation in births in Malta, a small Mediterranean country where the vast proportion of births occur in wedlock due to a predominantly Roman Catholic population. It also related such variations to seasonal variation in marriages. Annual seasonal peaks of marriages and births were analysed over the period 1950-1996 by X11 ARIMA. A significant peak in marriages (n = 111,932) in the third quarter of the year was found for almost the entire period under study. This was paralleled by a peak in births (n = 299,558) for the period 1970-1996, which lagged after the peak in marriages by 13-14 months. For the period 1994-1996, when monthly data for monthly pregnancies were available by pregnancy order, the peak in births was caused by first pregnancies only. Seasonal patterns in births occur almost universally due to cultural and/or biometeorological factors. The best known patterns include those of the southern United States, where births decline in April and May, and in northern Europe, where births peak in March and April. In Malta, the late summer peak in births appears to be due to a practical and planned approach by Maltese couples to contraceptive planning, probably influenced by the Roman Catholic ethos and social pressures, with unprotected intercourse occurring only after marriage. In Malta, birth control, albeit by so-called natural methods, was introduced in the 1960s. Prior to this period, births peaked towards the beginning/end of the year, and this may be the more natural seasonality of births in Malta.     

Statistical analysis of the seasonal variation in the twinning rate.

There have been few secular analyses of the seasonal variation in human twinning and the results are conflicting. One reason for this is that the seasonal pattern of twinning varies in different populations and at different periods. Another reason is that the statistical methods used are different. The changing pattern of seasonal variation in twinning rates and total maternities in Denmark was traced for three periods (1855-69, 1870-94, and 1937-84). Two alternative methods of analysis are considered. The method of Walter and Elwood and a trigonometric regression model give closely similar results. The seasonal distribution of twin maternities for the periods in the 19th century showed highly significant departures. For both twin and general maternities, the main peaks can be seen from March to June and a local peak in September. During the spring-summer season the twinning rates were higher than the total birth rates, indicating a stronger seasonal variation for the twin maternities than for the general maternities. For 1937-84, there was a similar, but less accentuated, pattern. Studies of other populations are compared with the Danish results. The more accentuated seasonal variation of twinning in the past indicate that some factors in the past affected women during summer-autumn and around Christmas time, making them more fecund and particularly to be more prone to polyovulation and/or more able to complete a gestation with multiple embryos.     

Patterns of seasonal and yearly mass variation in West African tropical savannah birds

Birds in the northern hemisphere usually increase mass reserves in response to seasonal low temperatures and shorter day length that increase foraging unpredictability and so starvation risk. In the lowland tropics, relatively low temperatures and short day lengths are absent and so the risk of starvation may be reduced, leading to much smaller seasonal effects on mass. Nevertheless, other factors such as high temperatures and water and food availability may vary greatly between tropical wet and dry seasons, leading to variable starvation risk and seasonal mass effects. Using data collected from 47 species of birds caught over a 10‐year period in a tropical savannah region in West Africa we tested for seasonal variation in mass in response to a predictable, strongly seasonal tropical climate. Many species (91%) showed seasonal variation in mass, and this was often in a clear annual pattern that was constant across the years. Many species (89%) varied their mass in response to seasonally predictable rainfall. Annual variation in mass was also important (45% of species). Relatively few species (13%) had a seasonal pattern of mass variation that varied between years. Feeding guild or migratory status was not found to affect seasonal or annual mass variation. Seasonal mass change was on average 8.1% across the 21 species with a very large sample size and was comparable with both northern and southern temperate species. Our study showed that biologically significant consistent seasonal mass variation is common in tropical savannah bird species, and this is most likely in response to changing resource availability brought about by seasonal rainfall and the interrupted foraging response due to the constraints of breeding.     

Temporal, seasonal, and regional differences in births and deaths in Aland (Finland)

A good knowledge of the seasonal variation during normal years is of fundamental importance for analyses of the effects of wars, famines, epidemics, or similar privations on births and deaths. In this study we consider data from the Aland Islands (Finland) for 1650-1950. During the period 1650-1793 there are subperiods with missing data for all parishes, and consequently the total data for the Aland Islands for this period have to be estimated using available data. For the period 1794-1950 the registered data seem to be complete and reliable, but the war year 1809 shows a marked deficit of births. During the last decades of the 19th century the number of births increases markedly and after that shows a strong decrease. After the 1930s births increase again. To allow seasonality comparisons between the Aland Islands as a whole and its subregions, we base our studies on seasonal indexes. There is a markedly decreasing temporal trend in the seasonal variation of births for the Aland Islands as a whole, but the general pattern remains mainly the same, having two peaks, one in March-April and one in September-October. For the period 1901-1950 the seasonal variation almost disappeared. The strength of the seasonal variation in births shows regional differences, but the general pattern is mainly the same. The outermost parish, K?kar, an isolate of its own, shows the strongest seasonal variation in births. The annual number of deaths shows some marked peaks, especially in the war year 1809. For both sexes there are marked peaks in 1809, indicating that the deaths were mainly caused by epidemic diseases rather than by killing in battles. For mortality a decreasing trend in the seasonal variation is observed during 1650-1750, but after 1751-1800 the strength of seasonality shows an increasing trend and a sinusoidal pattern.     

Seasonal variation in growth of greater snow goose goslings: the role of food supply

Even though growth rate is an important fitness component, it is still controversial to what extent parent birds adjust the timing of offspring hatch to natural variations in food supply to maximize offspring growth. We studied the role of food availability in explaining inter- and intra-seasonal variation of growth rate in goslings of greater snow geese over 5 years. The peak of hatching generally coincided with the peak of food availability. However, early-hatched goslings usually grew faster than birds hatched at the peak, which in␣turn grew faster than late-hatched goslings, although this phenomenon was not observed in all years. There was considerable variation in growth rate among the five years, the smallest goslings produced in the best year (1991) being larger than the largest goslings of the poorest year (1994). We developed three indices of food availability, based on the cumulative availability of plant biomass and nitrogen content during the growth period, and showed that the cumulative exposure to nitrogen biomass explained up to 43% of variation (intra- and inter-annual) in body size just before fledging. In years with good feeding conditions, early-hatched goslings had access to more nitrogen during their growing period than those hatching on or after the peak and they grew faster. In years of lower food availability, early-hatched goslings had no detectable advantage over peak- or late-hatched birds for access to protein-rich food and no seasonal decline in growth rate was observed. These results confirm the critical role of food supply in the seasonal variation of growth rate in Arctic-nesting geese. Received: 27 June 1997 / Accepted: 9 October 1997     

Seasonal variation of cold-induced vasooscillation on rabbit ear central artery

We studied the seasonal variation of vasooscillation of a rabbit ear central artery induced by exposure of the earlobes to - 7 degrees C liquid. The data were collected over a period of 10 years and analyzed by month. a) The index of arterial temperature fluctuation (IATF), i.e., activation index of cold-induced vasooscillation (CIVO), ranged from 114.5 +/- 26.7 (mean +/- SE) in January to 386.7 +/- 36.1 in June. A significant variation over all 12 months was revealed by analysis of variance (P less than 0.01). The values measured in May (317.1 +/- 47.3), June (386.7 +/- 36.1), and July (315.1 +/- 36.0) were significantly larger than those of other months. b) The monthly IATFs were correlated with the open air temperatures (r = 0.7017, P less than 0.05); however, the peak IATF occurred in June, while the peak open air temperature was in August. c) There was no seasonal variation of the arterial temperature either before or at 18-20 min after -7 degrees C immersion. Arterial temperature was not related to IATF during -7 degrees C exposure. d) When measuring-site temperature was steady, the thermistor temperature changed in parallel with the output from a laser blood volume meter. e) The CIVO was independent of systemic blood pressure and heart rate, which suggested that the occurrence of CIVO was regulated by changes in local vascular resistance.     

Seasonal Variations in Notification of Active Tuberculosis Cases in China, 2005–2012

Background

Although seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB) incidence has been described in many countries, it remains unknown in China.

Methods

A time series decomposition analysis (X-12-ARIMA) was performed to examine the seasonal variation in active TB cases nationwide from 2005 through 2012 in China. Seasonal amplitude was calculated for the evaluation of TB seasonal variation.

Results

A total of 7.78 million active TB cases were reported over a period of 8 years. A spring peak (April) was observed with seasonal amplitude of 46.3%, compared with the winter trough (February). Most cases in provinces with subtropical and tropical monsoon climate showed lower amplitudes than those in temperate continental, plateau and mountain climate regions. The magnitude of seasonality varied inversely with annual average temperature, r (95% CI) = -0.71 (-0.79, -0.61). The seasonal amplitudes were 56.7, 60.5, 40.6, 46.4 and 50.9% for patients aged ≤14, 15–24, 25–44, 45–64, and ≥65 years, respectively. Students demonstrated greater seasonal amplitude than peasants, migrant workers and workers (115.3% vs. 43.5, 41.6 and 48.1%). Patients with pulmonary TB had lower amplitude compared to patients with pleural and other extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB) (45.9% vs. 52.0 and 56.3%). Relapse cases with sputum smear positive TB (SS+ TB) had significantly higher seasonal amplitude compared to new cases with sputum smear positive TB (52.2% vs. 41.6%).

Conclusions

TB is a seasonal disease in China. The peak and trough of TB transmission actually are in winter and in autumn respectively after factors of delay are removed. Higher amplitudes of TB seasonality are more likely to happen in temperate continental, plateau and mountain climate regions and regions with lower annual average temperature, and young person, students, patients with EPTB and relapse cases with SS+ TB are more likely to be affected by TB seasonality.     

Seasonal variation of livebirths, stillbirths, extramarital births and twin maternities in Switzerland.

A study was made of the seasonal variation in all births, and births according to marital status, multiplicity and birth status (live and still) in Switzerland recorded between 1876 and 1990. To obtain seasonal variation in as pure as possible form, our analyses are based on rates. When comparing the seasonality in data sets showing markedly different levels, standardised indices were used. Assuming the length of pregnancies with twins to be about one month shorter than for pregnancies with singletons, lagged twinning rates were calculated but, in comparison with actual twinning rates, the general seasonal variation remained. Therefore, this study was based on actual twinning rates. A monotonic increase in the amplitude of the seasonal variation in general births was noted for the period 1876-1930, with strong seasonal variation holding for 1921-1980. After that, a marked decline in the amplitude can be observed. Seasonality of both all births and twin maternities showed very similar pattern for the periods 1876-1930 and 1969-1990, with maxima in the spring (March-May) and troughs in late autumn (October-December). Twin maternities showed a strong seasonality for the period 1876-1930, being about 20% higher in March than in October. The twinning rate in the period 1876-1930 was about 2.6 per thousand units higher than in the period 1969-90. For twin maternities there was also a stronger seasonal variation during the earlier period than during the later one. The pattern of the seasonal variation for extramarital births, showing a maximum in February (conceptions in May-June) and a minimum in August (conceptions in November-December) with a difference of no less than 24% was more marked than for the marital births. It seems likely that this seasonality of extra-marital maternities was due mainly to seasonal variation of coital rates and multiple ovulation in the early summer months coinciding with optima of light, temperature and food supply. A strong reduction in the rate of stillbirths (gestational age more than 29 weeks) was observed during the twentieth century. The stillbirth rate declined from about 40 per 1000 in the 1870s to fewer than 5 per 1000 in the 1980s. Irrespective of this strong decline in the stillbirth rate, the same seasonal rhythm was noticed throughout the period with high stillbirth rates among births around March and low rates during the summer and autumn.     

Report of the Council of the Association of Applied Biologists for the year 1968

Bock (1963) showed that in the years 1956-60 early season sprays achieved good control of coffee berry disease (CBD) in East Rift areas of Kenya. In recent years, however, this spray programme has given erratic and often very poor results. In field experiments in 1966 yields of main (late) crop were increased from 151 to 652 kg/ha by early season sprays but in 1967 practically no control of the disease was achieved. Of the fungicides examined captafol was superior to copper; ‘Tuzet’, the best antisporulant, gave the poorest control. Analysis of the data indicates that this large seasonal variation depends on the very different inter-relationships between rainfall, cropping pattern and timing of sprays which obtained in the 2 years. The hypothesis that early-season sprays achieve control of CBD mainly by reducing the sporulating capacity of the maturing bark is questioned. The view is put forward that the protectant action of these sprays has been underestimated.     

Incidence of Infertility in Dairy Cows

The incidence of anoestrus, suboestrus, delayed ovulation, cystic ovaries, repeat breeder cows, endometritis and other forms of infertility was studied in 283 herds over a period of eight years (2,304 cases). The total incidence of infertility (0.111 cases per cow per year) varied significantly from year to year. The peak of the seasonal variation occurred in December-April and did not correspond with the seasonal variation in calving. Both the size of herd and the type of housing affected the incidence of infertility, but the differences were great in respect of the various diagnoses. The incidence of ketosis by herd correlated significantly with the incidence of infertility by herd.     

Leaf litterfall patterns of perennial plant species in the arid Patagonian Monte,Argentina

The objective of this study was to investigate the variation in leaf litterfall patterns of desert plant species in relation to the intra- and interannual variation of precipitation. We collected the leaf litterfall of 12 representative species of the dominant life forms in the arid Patagonian Monte (evergreen shrubs, deciduous shrubs, and perennial grasses) at monthly intervals during three consecutive years. All shrub species showed a marked seasonality in the pattern of leaf litterfall, but the date of the peak of leaf litterfall differed among them. The peak of leaf litterfall in three deciduous and three evergreen shrubs occurred in summer months while in one deciduous shrub and in two other evergreen shrubs the peak of leaf litterfall was in autumn and winter, respectively. In contrast, the leaf litterfall of perennial grasses occurred through the year without a seasonal pattern. In most shrub species, increasing annual precipitation was related to increasing leaf litterfall and the peak of leaf litterfall was positively related to precipitation events occurred some months before, during winter. Moreover, the magnitude of responses in terms of variation in leaf litterfall in relation to interannual variation of precipitation was not the same for all species. Evergreen shrubs showed lower responses than deciduous species. These differences in leaf litterfall patterns were consistent with differences in leaf traits. In conclusion, we found new evidence of species-specific responses of leaf litterfall patterns to precipitation, suggesting that other factors than precipitation may control leaf litterfall in desert plants.     

Influence of dietary intake and physical activity on annual rhythm of human blood cholesterol concentrations

Seasonal variation in the plasma total cholesterol (TC) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) have been repeatedly reported, with contradictory results regarding the pattern of seasonal variation of these parameters. Furthermore, it is still not well established whether the variation is due to changes in the nutrition or changes in physical activity depending on the season. The aim of this study was therefore to determine plasma TC and HDL-C in different groups of healthy participants: 19 vegetarians with a constant diet independent of the season, 14 athletes with almost constant physical activity over the year, and 114 controls in the age groups 20-26 years (mean age 24 + 1.5 years) and 40-48 years (mean age 44.3 + 2.1 years). Over 2 years, blood samples were collected every 2-3 months and were analyzed for plasma TC and HDL-C. At all visits, body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) were calculated, and nutrition and physical activity profiles were obtained. The seasonal model was calculated using object-oriented software for the analysis of longitudinal data in S (OSWALD); multiple regression analysis was used to determine the influence of age, gender, diet, and physical activity on seasonal changes of the lipid parameters. In all groups, we found an annual rhythm of the plasma TC and HDL-C concentrations, which can be mathematically described by a sine curve with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. This rhythm was independent of the age, gender, BMI, diet, or physical activity. The observed seasonal differences between the maximum and the minimum were about 5%-10% for TC and about 5%-8% for HDL-C concentration. These differences were greater than the determined circadian (TC 3.5%, HDL-C 4%) and day-to-day changes for TC and HDL-C (coefficient of variation <5% for both). In conclusion, annual rhythm of TC and HDL-C is not primarily induced by seasonal differences in dietary intake or physical activity. Therefore, the annual rhythm in cholesterol levels is most likely determined by endogenous factors or factors directly related to seasonal changes in the environment.     

盐生荒漠地表水热与二氧化碳通量的季节变化及驱动因素

以古尔班通古特沙漠南缘原始盐生荒漠为对象,利用涡度相关法,对原始盐生荒漠地表水热、二氧化碳通量进行了连续观测,对通量的季节变化、浅层土壤水分条件改变对盐生荒漠植物群落水汽、二氧化碳通量以及水分利用效率的影响进行了系统的分析.结果表明:净辐射通量、潜热通量和二氧化碳通量都具有明显的季节变化趋势,而显热通量的季节变化不明显.在有效能量的分配上,显热通量是有效能量的主要输出项.在降水影响期和非影响期,二氧化碳通量没有明显的变化;而在非降水影响期潜热通量明显降低,表明土壤水分处于亏缺状态,但二氧化碳通量并没有降低的趋势,而与前期保持高度的一致性.以此可以推断,该荒漠盐生植物群落并不以降水为主要水分来源,降水后水汽通量和二氧化碳通量变化的不一致性是该原始盐生荒漠独特植物特征决定的.降水影响期原始盐生荒漠植物群落的水分利用效率低于非影响期,是由于降水后土壤蒸发迅速增加,而植物蒸腾与光合并未随之增加造成的.     

Intraspecific differentiation of social behavior and shelter selection in Mesobuthus gibbosus (Brullé, 1832) (Scorpiones: Buthidae)

We compared seasonal shelter selection and social behavior of Mesobuthus gibbosus from autumn to mid-summer in two similar phryganic ecosystems, in continental Greece (near Volos city) and in insular Greece (eastern Crete), and in the laboratory under simulated abiotic conditions. Our results showed that shelter selection is a critical indicator of the seasonal social behavior of the species. The abrupt climatic changes in spring caused a differentiation in shelter selection between the cold period (November–February) and the warm period (March–June) at both sites. Sociality was exhibited only during winter in the field and was more extensive under cold conditions in the laboratory. Co-occurrence of scorpions proved to be age-specific, facilitated by population density and by harsh abiotic conditions during winter, and negatively influenced by intraspecific competition, which was higher in continental Greece. The response of scorpions to changes of abiotic factors reveals synchronization of seasonal shelter selection with climatic changes.     

Seasonal variation of thermophilic campylobacters in sewage sludge

The seasonal variation of thermophilic campylobacters in Lancaster's sewage sludge was studied over a 21 month period. The numbers in fresh sludge (from primary sedimentation) vary between approximately 200 and 5000/100 ml for most of the year but there was a large increase in May and June (in May 1988 there were 42,100 campylobacters/100 ml which is 17 times more than in the preceding April). In 1989 there was a similar May/June peak but with lower numbers. This seasonal variation, measured by environmental monitoring, reflects the incidence of infections in the community. The same pattern was found in 2-d old sludge but the numbers were substantially lower (40% lower over the experimental period). Thermophilic campylobacters were virtually absent from digested sludge and sludge prior to land distribution. Survival experiments confirm that campylobacters survive for only a few hours in both sterile and unsterile digested and undigested sludge. These results suggest that it is safe to dispose of Lancaster's digested sludge on land but there is still uncertainty about the ability of campylobacters to survive in sludge in the viable but non-culturable form.     

Seasonal variation of thermophilic campylobacters in sewage sludge

The seasonal variation of thermophilic campylobacters in Lancaster's sewage sludge was studied over a 21 month period. The numbers in fresh sludge (from primary sedimentation) vary between approximately 200 and 5000/100 ml for most of the year but there was a large increase in May and June (in May 1988 there were 42100 campylobacters/100 ml which is 17 times more than in the preceding April). In 1989 there was a similar May/June peak but with lower numbers. This seasonal variation, measured by environmental monitoring, reflects the incidence of infections in the community. The same pattern was found in 2-d old sludge but the numbers were substantially lower (40% lower over the experimental period).
Thermophilic campylobacters were virtually absent from digested sludge and sludge prior to land distribution. Survival experiments confirm that campylobacters survive for only a few hours in both sterile and unsterile digested and undigested sludge. These results suggest that it is safe to dispose of Lancaster's digested sludge on land but there is still uncertainty about the ability of campylobacters to survive in sludge in the viable but non-culturable form.