Anticipated climate and land‐cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo's orang‐utans

Habitat loss and climate change pose a double jeopardy for many threatened taxa, making the identification of optimal habitat for the future a conservation priority. Using a case study of the endangered Bornean orang‐utan, we identify environmental refuges by integrating bioclimatic models with projected deforestation and oil‐palm agriculture suitability from the 1950s to 2080s. We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm with information on habitat needs to predict suitable habitat for the present day and 1950s. We then projected to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in models incorporating only land‐cover change, climate change or both processes combined. For future climate, we incorporated projections from four model and emission scenario combinations. For future land cover, we developed spatial deforestation predictions from 10 years of satellite data. Refuges were delineated as suitable forested habitats identified by all models that were also unsuitable for oil palm – a major threat to tropical biodiversity. Our analyses indicate that in 2010 up to 260 000 km² of Borneo was suitable habitat within the core orang‐utan range; an 18–24% reduction since the 1950s. Land‐cover models predicted further decline of 15–30% by the 2080s. Although habitat extent under future climate conditions varied among projections, there was majority consensus, particularly in north‐eastern and western regions. Across projections habitat loss due to climate change alone averaged 63% by 2080, but 74% when also considering land‐cover change. Refuge areas amounted to 2000–42 000 km² depending on thresholds used, with 900–17 000 km² outside the current species range. We demonstrate that efforts to halt deforestation could mediate some orang‐utan habitat loss, but further decline of the most suitable areas is to be expected given projected changes to climate. Protected refuge areas could therefore become increasingly important for ongoing translocation efforts. We present an approach to help identify such areas for highly threatened species given environmental changes expected this century.     

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province,China

Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species’ habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least‐cost model for the current period (1960–1990) and the 2050s (2041–2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least‐cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km² of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km² and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km² and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high‐priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.     

Climate controls the distribution of a widespread invasive species: implications for future range expansion

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Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park,China

Climate change has direct impacts on wildlife and future biodiversity protection efforts. Vulnerability assessment and habitat connectivity analyses are necessary for drafting effective conservation strategies for threatened species such as the Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus). We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the current (1950–2000) and future (2041–2060) habitat suitability by combining bioclimatic and environmental variables, and identified potential climate refugia for Tibetan brown bears in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China. Next, we selected Circuit model to simulate potential migration paths based on current and future climatically suitable habitat. Results indicate a total area of potential suitable habitat under the current climate scenario of approximately 31,649.46 km², of which 28,778.29 km² would be unsuitable by the 2050s. Potentially suitable habitat under the future climate scenario was projected to cover an area of 23,738.6 km². Climate refugia occupied 2,871.17 km², primarily in the midwestern and northeastern regions of Yangtze River Zone, as well as the northern region of Yellow River Zone. The altitude of climate refugia ranged from 4,307 to 5,524 m, with 52.93% lying at altitudes between 4,300 and 4,600 m. Refugia were mainly distributed on bare rock, alpine steppe, and alpine meadow. Corridors linking areas of potentially suitable brown bear habitat and a substantial portion of paths with low‐resistance value were distributed in climate refugia. We recommend various actions to ameliorate the impact of climate change on brown bears, such as protecting climatically suitable habitat, establishing habitat corridors, restructuring conservation areas, and strengthening monitoring efforts.     

Potential distribution of Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang and its predicted responses to climate change based on a comprehensive habitat suitability model

Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang is a rare and endangered traditional Chinese medicinal plant. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species in the present and future in China. First, using nine different algorithms, we built an ensemble model to explore the possible impacts of climate change on the habitat distribution of this species. Then, based on this model, we built a CHS model to further identify the distribution characteristics of N. incisum‐suitable habitats in three time periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s) while considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for N. incisum covers approximately 83.76 × 10³ km², and these locations were concentrated in the Tibet Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, and Sichuan Province. In the future, the areas of suitable habitat for N. incisum would significantly decrease and would be 69.53 × 10³ km² and 60.21 × 10³ km² in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. However, the area of marginally suitable habitat would remain relatively stable. This study provides a more reliable and comprehensive method for modelling the current and future distributions of N. incisum, and it provides valuable insights for highlighting priority areas for medicinal plant conservation and resource utilization.     

Plant communities as a tool in temporary ponds conservation in SW Portugal

Temporary ponds are seasonal wetlands annually subjected to extreme and unstable ecological conditions, neither truly aquatic nor truly terrestrial. This habitat and its flora have been poorly studied and documented because of the ephemeral character of the flora, the changeable annual weather that has a great effect on the small, herbaceous taxa and the declining abundance of temporary ponds. The objectives of this study are: (a) to define plant community diversity in terms of floristic composition of ephemeral wetlands in SW Portugal, (b) to identify temporary pond types according to their vegetation composition and (c) to identify those ponds that configure the European community priority habitat (3170* – Mediterranean temporary ponds). Vegetation sampling was conducted in 29 ponds, identifying 168 species grouped among 15 plant communities. Soil texture, pH, organic C and N content were measured, but only N and percent of clay appear to be related with the distribution of each community type. The results showed that ephemeral wetlands could be classified into four type: vernal pools, marshlands, deep ponds and disturbed wetlands. Vernal pools correspond to the Mediterranean temporary ponds (3170*), protected as priority habitat under the EU Habitats Directive. Submersed Isoetes species (Isoetes setaceum and Isoetes velatum) represents, together with Eryngium corniculatum, the indicator species for vernal pools. We identify also indicator plant communities of this priority habitat, namely I. setaceum and E. corniculatum–Baldellia ranunculoides plant communities. In this region, the conservation of temporary ponds has so far been compatible with traditional agricultural activities, but today these ponds are endangered by the intensification of agriculture and the loss of traditional land use practices and by the development of tourism. Guest editors: B. Oertli, R. Cereghino, A. Hull & R. Miracle Pond Conservation: From Science to Practice. 3rd Conference of the European Pond Conservation Network, Valencia, Spain, 14–16 May 2008     

Extent, properties, and landscape setting of geographically isolated wetlands in urban southern New England watersheds

We assessed the extent and characteristics of geographically isolated wetlands (i.e., wetlands completely surrounded by upland) in a series of watersheds in the urban northeast US. We applied a previously developed index of urbanization to a sample of 10 watersheds selected at random from a set of 30 watersheds whose boundaries lay within the borders of Rhode Island, USA. The index of urbanization in our sample watersheds ranged over more than an order of magnitude and increased with increasing amount of urban land use in the watersheds (r ² = 0.51, F = 8.22, P = 0.02). The density of isolated wetlands in the watersheds averaged 1.93 ± 0.21 wetlands km⁻² and comprised 38.2 ± 1.77% of all wetlands. Isolated wetlands were smaller than those connected to other waters (non-isolated), and accounted for 6.01–16.5% of the total wetland area in the watersheds. The area of isolated wetlands as a percent of all wetland area significantly increased with increasing watershed urbanization (r ² = 0.62, F = 12.9, P = 0.007). Isolated wetlands were predominantly deciduous forested wetlands, and urban land cover in the 50 m buffer surrounding isolated wetlands was significantly higher than in the 50 m surrounding non-isolated wetlands. The proportion of urban land cover was greater in a 150 than a 50 m buffer surrounding the wetlands. Our results suggest that an increase in the index of urbanization of 50 will result in 7% of the watershed’s wetlands being lost from federal protection. These findings indicate that the process of urbanization, along with accompanying habitat fragmentation, may result in an increase in the vulnerability of wetlands to loss and degradation and therefore has implications for the management and conservation of geographically isolated wetlands.     

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy‐deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate‐only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km²) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km² (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate‐only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.     

Predicting the distributions of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana tree species under current and future climate change scenarios in Ethiopia

Distributions of potential ranges of plant species are not yet fully known in Ethiopia where high climatic variability and vegetation types are found. This study was undertaken to predict distributions of suitable habitats of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana under current and two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2070) in Ethiopia. Eleven environmental variables with less correlation coefficients (r < 0.7) were used to make the prediction. Shifting in extents of habitat suitability and effects of elevation, solar radiation and topographic position in relation to the current and future climatic scenarios were statistically analysed using independent t-test and linear model. We found decreasing area of highly suitable habitat from 0.51% to 0.46%, 0.36% and 0.33%, 0.24% for Prunus africana and 1.13% to 1.02%, 0.77% and 0.76%, 0.60% for Pouteria adolfi-friederici, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by 2050 and 2070 respectively. Moist and dry afromontane forests are identified as the most suitable habitat for both species. Overall, our results suggest that climate change can promote dynamic suitable habitat niches under different future climate scenarios. Therefore, biodiversity conservation strategies should take into account habitat suitability dynamics issues and identify where to conserve species before implementing conservation practices.     

Identifying the ecological causes of long-term declines of wetland-dependent birds in an urbanizing landscape

Many wetland-dependent birds are thought to be experiencing significant population declines, although population trend data for this suite of birds are rare and the causes of declines poorly understood. We used a 26-year dataset (1980–2005) of wetland bird abundance and distribution among 196 wetlands in northeastern Illinois (i.e., Chicago and its suburbs) to evaluate population trends and identify underlying ecological causes. We used aerial photography and GIS to quantify wetland habitat structure (i.e., the extent of emergent vegetation) and changes in surrounding land use. We then evaluated how changes in land use affected the structure of wetlands and ultimately wetland bird populations. Of the 12 species analyzed, seven experienced significant declines, three showed non-significant declines, and two experienced significant increases. Population declines could not be attributed to wetland loss because none of our wetlands were destroyed. Concurrent research at these wetlands also suggests that neither low adult survival nor poor reproductive success were responsible for the declines. Increased development within 2 km of wetlands, however, was associated with extreme changes in the structure of wetlands. Wetlands tended either to lose much of their vegetation and become open ponds, or become rank stands of dense vegetation. Both changes made wetlands less suitable for many wetland birds. While “no net loss” legislation may protect wetlands from being filled or drained, development near wetlands appears to be altering hydrology, resulting in habitat degradation and population declines of several wetland-dependent bird species.     

气候变化对孑遗植物银杉的潜在分布及生境破碎度的影响

以孑遗植物银杉(Cathaya argyrophylla Chun et Kuang)为研究对象,选取65个地理分布记录和19个生物气候因子(bio1—bio19),利用MaxEnt模型预测四种不同浓度路径下(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5),银杉在2050s和2070s两个年代的潜在分布变化,并利用景观指数对气候变化情景下银杉适宜生境空间格局特征转变及生境破碎度变化进行分析。结果表明:在当前气候情景下,银杉适宜生境面积约占研究区面积的14.32%,主要分布于北纬24°—32°、东经105°—114°之间,位于四川盆地东南地区、云贵高原东北地区、南岭西段地区以及浙闽丘陵的北部地区。在未来不同气候情景下,银杉适宜生境变化特征显著,面积呈增加趋势,形状上整体呈四周向中间聚集。气候变化对银杉适宜生境的景观指数影响主要表现在斑块数量增多、斑块密度增加、面积加权平均形状指数变大,对分离度与聚散性影响较小;气候变化对银杉生境破碎化程度的影响表现在破碎化两极现象减弱,总体破碎化程度加剧。研究选取7个景观指数并结合PCA法得到综合的破碎度指数来定量分析银杉适宜生境破碎化程度变化,相比单一指标的定量评价和多个指标的定性分析,更能代表银杉生境的实际破碎化程度。     

Predicting impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity of Kalopanax septemlobus in South Korea

Understanding the drivers of habitat distribution patterns and assessing habitat connectivity are crucial for conservation in the face of climate change. In this study, we examined a sparsely distributed tree species, Kalopanax septemlobus (Araliaceae), which has been heavily disturbed by human use in temperate forests of South Korea. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling (MaxEnt) to identify the climatic and topographic factors driving the distribution of the species. Then, we constructed habitat models under current and projected climate conditions for the year 2050 and evaluated changes in the extent and connectivity of the K. septemlobus habitat. Annual mean temperature and terrain slope were the two most important predictors of species distribution. Our models predicted the range shift of K. septemlobus toward higher elevations under medium-low and high emissions scenarios for 2050, with dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (51% and 85%, respectively). In addition, connectivity analysis indicated that climate change is expected to reduce future levels of habitat connectivity. Even under the Representative Construction Pathway (RCP) 4.5 medium-low warming scenario, the projected climate conditions will decrease habitat connectivity by 78%. Overall, suitable habitats for K. septemlobus populations will likely become more isolated depending on the severity of global warming. The approach presented here can be used to efficiently assess species and habitat vulnerability to climate change.     

Nutrient status and retention in pristine and disturbed wetlands in Uganda: management implications

Wetlands in Uganda experience different forms of human pressure ranging from drainage for agriculture and industrial development to over harvesting of wetland products. In order to develop sustainable management tools for wetland ecosystems in Uganda and the Lake Victoria Region, water quality analyses were carried out in a rural undisturbed (pristine) wetland (Nabugabo wetland in Masaka) and two urban wetlands that are experiencing human and urban development pressure (the Nakivubo wetland in Kampala and Kirinya wetland in Jinja). The former wetland forms the main inflow into Lake Nabugabo while the other two border the northern shore of Lake Victoria, Uganda. Nabugabo wetland buffers Lake Nabugabo against surface runoff from the catchment, while Nakivubo and Kirinya wetlands provides a water treatment function for wastewater from Kampala City and Jinja town respectively, in addition to buffering Lake Victoria against surface runoff. Water quality was assessed in all the wetland sites, and in addition nutrient content and storage was investigated in the main plant species (papyrus, Phragmites, Miscanthidium and cocoyam) in Nakivubo and Kirinya wetlands. A pilot experiment was also carried out to assess the wastewater treatment potential of both the papyrus vegetation and an important agricultural crop Colocasia esculenta (cocoyam). Low electrical conductivity, ammonium–nitrogen and ortho-phosphate concentrations were recorded at the inflow into Nabugabo wetland (41.5 μS/cm; 0.91 mg/l and 0.42 mg/l respectively) compared to the Nakivubo and Kirinya wetlands (335 μS/cm; 31.68 mg/l and 2.83 mg/l and 502 μS/cm; 10 mg/l and 1.87 mg/l respectively). The papyrus vegetation had higher biomass in Nakivubo and Kirinya wetlands (6.7 kg DW m⁻²; 7.2 kg DW m⁻² respectively), followed by Phragmites (6.5, 6.7), cocoyams (6.4, 6.6) and Miscanthidium (4.0, 4.2). The papyrus vegetation also exhibited a higher wastewater treatment potential than the agricultural crop (cocoyam) during the pilot experiment (maximum removal degree of ammonium–nitrogen being 95% and 67% for papyrus and yams). It was concluded that urbanisation pressure reduces natural wetland functioning either through the discharge of wastewater effluent or the degradation of natural wetland vegetation. It is recommended that wetland vegetation be restored to enhance wetland ecosystem functioning and for wetlands that are not yet under agricultural pressure, efforts should be made to halt any future encroachment.     

Litter decomposition in created and reference wetlands in West Virginia,USA

Large amounts of resources have gone into wetland mitigation in recent years; however, it is still unclear whether wetland function is being replaced along with wetland area. Litter decomposition is linked to numerous wetland functions. In this study, we measured plant litter decomposition potential over 12 months in 8 created and 8 reference wetlands located in the Allegheny Mountains of West Virginia, USA. Broadleaf cattail (Typha latifolia L.) litter bags were placed in each wetland and collected at 3 month intervals. Linear decomposition rate constants and percent mass remaining were similar between wetland types (created and reference) and among Cowardin classifications (palustrine: unconsolidated bottom, aquatic bed, emergent, and scrub/shrub). Created wetland age was not correlated with decomposition potential. Our study found that created wetlands had similar litter decomposition potential as reference wetlands indicating that similar processes are likely acting upon litter decomposition within both natural and created wetlands.     

气候变化对丹顶鹤秋季迁徙路线潜在生境适宜性的影响

目前全球变暖趋势的加剧对丹顶鹤等大型濒危水禽的栖息地造成了严重的威胁。由于监测方法和技术手段的限制,丹顶鹤在迁徙路线上潜在生境的分布范围尚不清楚,气候变化对丹顶鹤迁徙路线生境适宜性的影响机理有待进一步研究。基于138个丹顶鹤样本分布信息和19种环境变量数据,利用 BIOMOD2 软件包构建了丹顶鹤潜在生境评价的组合模型,对丹顶鹤在亚洲东部秋季迁徙路线上的生境适宜性进行数值模拟,并预测SSP1.2-6气候背景下2021-2040年、2041-2060年、2061-2080年、2081-2100年四个不同阶段的丹顶鹤潜在生境范围的变化趋势。研究结果表明:与单模型的模拟结果相比,集成9种单模型的BIOMOD2组合模型预测精度更高。集成模型的重要性分析表明,气温日较差是丹顶鹤生境适宜性变化的最重要的影响因子。受气候变化的影响2021-2040年、2041-2060年、2061-2080年、2081-2100年丹顶鹤潜在生境的面积将分别减少到2.60×10⁵km²、2.58×10⁵km²、2.75×10⁵km²、2.56×10⁵km²,迁徙路线上胶东半岛和环渤海地区适栖生境面积减少的最为显著。本研究对于迁徙路线上珍稀水禽潜在适宜生境的模拟及全球变化背景下珍稀水禽栖息地的保育和修复具有重要意义。     

水菜花种群潜在生境选择与空间格局预测

国家二级保护野生植物水菜花(Ottelia cordata)，喜生于清洁的水环境中，对环境变化极为敏感，是检验湿地环境及气候变化的关键指示物种之一，在我国仅零星分布于海南北部的火山熔岩湿地区，生存状况不容乐观。研究水菜花种群潜在生境选择及其空间格局演变，有利于加强濒危物种保护保育及湿地生态系统修复、管理。该研究基于GIS平台和MaxEnt模型，结合气候、地形和土壤因子，探究水菜花种群环境限制因子及其在气候变化背景下潜在适宜生境的演变格局。结果表明，水菜花种群对温差与降水量变化敏感，等温性、最冷季度降水量、土壤类型和年均降水量对水菜花种群分布影响显著；全新世中期-当前-2070年气候变化背景下，水菜花适宜生境面积先减小后增大，分布重心呈西南-东北-西南转移格局；未来气候情景下，水菜花种群高度和中度适宜生境缩减，低适宜生境增加，南部地区将出现新增适宜生境，东北、西北及西南部适宜生境将发生消减。该研究从气候环境角度论证了水菜花种群的潜在生境选择及空间变化特征，可为濒危物种保护保育、湿地管理及其生物多样性维护工作提供参考和指导。     

Geographical ecology and conservation of Eugenia L. (Myrtaceae) in the Brazilian Cerrado: Past,present and future

Human actions have caused the fragmentation of natural vegetation, habitat loss and climate change. The Cerrado, considered one of the global hotspots of diversity, has suffered great habitat loss due to these factors, which has been aggravated by the agricultural expansion that took place during the last 60 years. In this context, we chose species of the genus Eugenia L. (Myrtaceae) occurring in the Brazilian Cerrado to describe richness patterns and range loss, and determine conservation priorities for the Cerrado. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were applied to calculate the geographical range of each species in the past (Last Glacial Maximum – LGM, 21 000 years ago), present (PIP, representing current climatic conditions – 1760 years ago) and future (near future – NF, 2080–2100). These results were combined to calculate the richness of the group and also to estimate the range loss of these species in the future. Moreover, we evaluated the irreplaceability of areas for species conservation, aiming to maximize the biotic stability of Eugenia species. Our results showed that the highest species richness in the past was found in the southwestern region of the Cerrado and, currently, the richest regions are found in the central and southeastern areas. However, in the future, we predict a shift of the greatest values of richness towards the southeastern region, an area currently occupied by the Atlantic forest. Although areas with high conservation priorities were found scattered across the biome, this shift is worrisome due to the high fragmentation rate and intensive human occupation thoughout the Atlantic region. Thus, conservation efforts should focus on areas found within these limits.     

Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal wetlands worldwide, yet the fate of individual wetlands will vary based on local topography, wetland morphology, sediment dynamics, hydrologic processes, and plant‐mediated feedbacks. Local variability in these factors makes it difficult to predict SLR effects across wetlands or to develop a holistic regional perspective on SLR response for a diversity of wetland types. To improve regional predictions of SLR impacts to coastal wetlands, we developed a model that addresses the scale‐dependent factors controlling SLR response and accommodates different levels of data availability. The model quantifies SLR‐driven habitat conversion within wetlands across a region by predicting changes in individual wetland hypsometry. This standardized approach can be applied to all wetlands in a region regardless of data availability, making it ideal for modeling SLR response across a range of scales. Our model was applied to 105 wetlands in southern California that spanned a broad range of typology and data availability. Our findings suggest that if wetlands are confined to their current extents, the region will lose 12% of marsh habitats (vegetated marsh and unvegetated flats) with 0.6 m of SLR (projected for 2050) and 48% with 1.7 m of SLR (projected for 2100). Habitat conversion was more drastic in wetlands with larger proportions of marsh habitats relative to subtidal habitats and occurred more rapidly in small lagoons relative to larger sites. Our assessment can inform management of coastal wetland vulnerability, improve understanding of the SLR drivers relevant to individual wetlands, and highlight significant data gaps that impede SLR response modeling across spatial scales. This approach augments regional SLR assessments by considering spatial variability in SLR response drivers, addressing data gaps, and accommodating wetland diversity, which will provide greater insights into regional SLR response that are relevant to coastal management and restoration efforts.     

气候变化情景下裸冠菊在中国的潜在适生区分布预测

外来入侵植物裸冠菊(Gymnocoronis spilanthoides)具有较强的入侵适应性能快速繁殖扩散,会对本土物种的生长繁殖及本地生态安全、景观格局等产生不良影响。基于265个有效分布点和7个环境变量,调整优化预测模型的调控倍频和特征组合参数,应用MaxEnt、ArcGIS、R软件预测当前和未来(2050s, 2070s)不同气候情景(SSP126, SSP245,SSP370, SSP585)下裸冠菊在中国的潜在地理分布,定量分析其适生区的空间变化及质心移动轨迹,最后采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)和测试遗漏率评估模型的精确性。未来气候模式选择中国国家气候中心开发的CMIP6中BCC-CSM2-MR。结果表明：(1)模型预测结果极准确,各组模型的AUC值均高于0.97;(2)最干季降水量(bio17)、最冷季度平均温(bio11)、温度季节性变化(bio4)和最暖季度平均降雨量(bio18)是影响裸冠菊地理分布的主导气候因子;(3)当前气候条件下,裸冠菊的总适生区面积达到191.18×10⁴km²,约占国土总面积的1...     

Temporal and spatial habitat preferences and biotic interactions between mosquito larvae and antagonistic crustaceans in the field

Investigations on natural antagonists of mosquito larvae found that micro‐crustaceans (e.g., Cladocera) control mosquito populations under experimental conditions. However, their relevance for mosquito control under field situations remains widely unclear because important information about habitat preferences and time of occurrence of crustaceans and mosquito larvae are still missing. In order to fill this knowledge gap, a field study was undertaken in different wetland areas of Saxony, Germany, in different habitats (i.e., grassland, forest, and reed‐covered wetlands). We found negative interactions between larvae of Ae. vexans and predatory Cyclopoida (Crustacean: Copepoda), which both were dominant during the first two weeks of hydroperiod, at ponds located at grassland habitats. Larvae of Cx. pipiens were spatially associated with competing Cladocera, but they colonized ponds more rapidly. Populations of Cladocera established from the third week of hydroperiod and prevented Cx. pipiens colonization thereafter. Ostracoda were highly abundant during the whole hydroperiod, but their presence was restricted to habitats of reed‐covered wetland at one geographical area. Mosquito larvae hardly occurred at those ponds. In general, we found that ponds at the reed‐covered wetlands provided better conditions for the initial development of crustaceans and hence, mosquito larval colonization was strongly inhibited. Grassland habitat, in contrast, favored early development of mosquito larvae. This study showed that micro‐crustaceans are relevant for mosquito management but their impact on mosquito larvae varies between species and depends on environmental conditions.