Lagged Effect of Diurnal Temperature Range on Mortality in a Subtropical Megacity of China

Background

Many studies have found extreme temperature can increase the risk of mortality. However, it is not clear whether extreme diurnal temperature range (DTR) is associated with daily disease-specific mortality, and how season might modify any association.

Objectives

To better understand the acute effect of DTR on mortality and identify whether season is a modifier of the DTR effect.

Methods

The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of DTR on deaths (non-accidental mortality (NAD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease (RD) and cerebrovascular disease (CBD)) in the full year, the cold season and the warm season.

Results

A non-linear relationship was consistently found between extreme DTR and mortality. Immediate effects of extreme low DTR on all types of mortality were stronger than those of extreme high DTR in the full year. The cumulative effects of extreme DTRs increased with the increment of lag days for all types of mortality in cold season, and they were greater for extreme high DTRs than those of extreme low DTRs. In hot season, the cumulative effects for extreme low DTRs increased with the increment of lag days, but for extreme high DTR they reached maxima at a lag of 13 days for all types of mortality except for CBD(at lag6 days), and then decreased.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that extreme DTR is an independent risk factor of daily mortality, and season is a modifier of the association of DTR with daily mortality.     

Modifiers of diurnal temperature range and mortality association in six Korean cities

Rapid temperature changes within a single day may be critical for populations vulnerable to thermal stress who have difficulty adjusting themselves behaviorally and physiologically. We hypothesized that diurnal temperature range (DTR) is associated with mortality, and that this association is modified by season and socioeconomic status (SES). We evaluated meteorological and mortality data from six metropolitan areas in Korea from 1992 to 2007. We applied generalized linear models (GLM) for quantifying the estimated effects of DTR on mortality after adjusting for mean temperature, dew point temperature, day of the week, and seasonal and long-term trends. Most areas showed a linear DTR–mortality relationship, with evidence of increasing mortality with increasing DTR. Deaths among the elderly (75 years or older), females, the less educated, and the non-hospital population were associated more strongly with DTR than with the corresponding categories. DTR was the greatest threat to vulnerable study populations, with greater influence in the fall season. DTR was found to be a predictor of mortality, and this relationship was modified by season and SES.     

Does diurnal temperature range influence seasonal suicide mortality? Assessment of daily data of the Helsinki metropolitan area from 1973 to 2010

Several studies show a peak in suicide rates during springtime and suggest differences in the seasonal variation of suicides. However, the seasonal distribution of the temperature impact on suicide is less clear. This study investigated the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) on suicide mortality. Daily temperature and suicide data for Helsinki were analyzed for the period of 1973–2010 inclusive. Overall, DTR reached its maximum during the spring from mid-April to mid-June, which is also the season with highest suicide mortality in the study region. Specifically, the seasonal timing and maxima for both DTR and suicides vary from year to year. Time series analysis of DTR and suicide records revealed a significant (P?<?0.01) correlation between the springtime DTR maxima and suicide rates for males. No similar association could be found for females. These results provide evidence that a higher springtime DTR could be linked statistically to a higher seasonal suicide rate each spring, whereas the exact timing of the DTR peak did not associate with the seasonal suicide rate. A possible mechanism behind the springtime association between the DTR and suicides originates from brown adipose tissue (BAT) over-activity. Activation of BAT through the winter improves cold tolerance at the cost of heat tolerance. This might trigger anxiety and psychomotor agitation, affecting mood in a negative way. As a hypothesis, the compromised heat tolerance is suggested to increase the risk of death from suicide.     

Impact of diurnal temperature range on human health: a systematic review

Increasing epidemiological studies have shown that a rapid temperature change within 1 day is an independent risk factor for human health. This paper aimed to systematically review the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and human health and to propose future research directions. A literature search was conducted in October 2013 using the databases including PubMed, ScienceDirect, and EBSCO. Empirical studies regarding the relationship between DTR and mortality and morbidity were included. Twenty-five relevant studies were identified, among which, 11 investigated the relationship between DTR and mortality and 14 examined the impact of DTR on morbidity. The majority of existing studies reported that DTR was significantly associated with mortality and morbidity, particularly for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Notably, compared with adults, the elderly and children were more vulnerable to DTR effects. However, there were some inconsistencies regarding the susceptible groups, lag time, and threshold of DTR. The impact of DTR on human health may be confounded or modified by season, socioeconomic, and educational status. Further research is needed to further confirm the adverse effects of DTR in different geographical locations; examine the effects of DTR on the health of children aged one or under; explore extreme DTR effects on human health; analyze the difference of DTR effects on human health in different locations and the modified effects of potential confounding factors; and develop detailed preventive measures against large DTR, particularly for susceptible groups.     

Effect of diurnal temperature range on cardiovascular markers in the elderly in Seoul, Korea

While diurnal temperature range (DTR) has been found to be a risk factor for mortality, evaluation of the underlying mechanisms involved in this association are lacking. To explain the association between DTR and health effects, we investigated how cardiovascular markers responded to DTR. Data was obtained from 560 participants who regularly attended a community elderly welfare center located in Seoul, Korea. Data collection was conducted a total of five times over a 3-year period beginning in August, 2008. We examined systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), and heart rate variability (HRV). Mixed-effects models and generalized additive mixed models were used to assess the relationship of DTR with BP, HR, and HRV. BP was not associated significantly with rapid temperature changes during the day. While HR was associated linearly with increments of DTR, the relationship between DTR and HRV showed nonlinear associations, or the presence of a cutoff around median DTR. At the cutoff level of DTR determined by an inflection point in the graph, standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and root mean square successive difference (RMSSD) were peaked, whereas the low frequency:high frequency (LF:HF) ratio was elevated with decreasing DTR below the cutoff level. The study demonstrated that HR increases with increasing temperature range during the day, and that HRV is reduced at small or large DTR, which suggests minimal cardiovascular stress around the median level of temperature range during the day.     

Field metabolic rate of lactating female Galápagos fur seals (Arctocephalus galapagoensis): the influence of offspring age and environment.

Galápagos fur seals, Arctocephalus galapagoensis, live in a seasonal environment which varies strongly in productivity from year to year. We measured how the field metabolic rates (FMR) of lactating females varied with season, pup age and year. Energy expenditure was measured using doubly labeled water (DLW) during the cold seasons of 1984 and 1985 in 9 mothers of 1-3-month-old pups and 5 mothers of yearlings, and during the 1986 warm season in 8 mothers of 6-month-old pups. Young pups gained 0.84% mass/day during the cold season, but larger pups during the warm season lost 1.25% mass/day. During the warm season, females had lower relative total body water than during the cold season suggesting higher fat content during the warm, less productive season, but the effect was even more marked when comparing different years of the study: fat content was high in 1984 and 1986 and low in 1985. The FMR of mothers varied from 134 to 167 W but did not show significant differences between any of the pup age-groups. Among the years of the study, FMR showed only a trend towards low energy expenditure of mothers of young pups in 1984. The mean FMR was lower than for other otariids. Mothers may limit energy expenditure independent of pup age and season to minimize their own risk of starvation in an environment of comparatively low productivity, varying unpredictably due to frequent El Ni?o events.     

1961-2014年中国沿海极端气温事件变化及区域差异分析

基于1961-2014年156个地面气象站日尺度的气温数据集,利用趋势分析、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平、Pettitt检验、主成分分析等方法分析了中国沿海地区极端气温事件的时空变化特征。结果表明：中国沿海及各子区域极端气温暖指数呈上升趋势,冷指数和气温日较差呈下降趋势,夜指数的年际倾向率明显大于昼指数的年际倾向率;除相对指数、极高值指数和冷（暖）持续日数的多年均值在各子区域之间相差不大以外,霜冻日数、冰冻日数以及气温日较差的多年均值从北至南依次递减,与之相反,夏季日数、热夜日数、极端气温极低值指数以及生长季长度的多年均值则从北至南依次增加。各子区域极端气温指数年际间的主周期介于2-8 a,均无显著的年代际震荡周期;各子区域极端气温指数的突变主要发生在1980s和1990s期间,冷指数和极低值指数的突变时间稍早于暖指数和极高值指数的突变时间,突变后,极端暖事件和气温的极值事件进入多发阶段,极端冷事件进入相对少发的阶段;主成分分析中第一主成分高载荷的极端气温指数对日均气温和日最高（低）气温均有较好的指示性,这类极端指数两两之间的相关性也较强,低载荷的极端气温指数对日均气温和日最高（低）气温的指示性相对较弱,与其他极端气温指数之间的相关性也均较弱。     

Alternative respiration of fungus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phycomyces blakesleeanus</Emphasis>

Respiratory characteristics of germinating spores, developing mycelium and mitochondria of the fungus Phycomyces blakesleeanus were investigated by means of oxygen Clark-type electrode. The effects of respiratory inhibitors and metabolic compounds on oxygen consumption were tested. It was demonstrated that P. blakesleeanus apart of cyanide-sensitive respiration, CSR, possess alternative respiration, (cyanide-resistant respiration, CRR) which is constitutive and whose capacity decreases during development. Maximum is observed for activated spores where CRR capacity is significantly greater than CSR. After treatment with antimycin A, a third type of respiration insensitive to antimycin A and low concentration of SHAM (sufficient for inhibition of CRR), but sensitive to cyanide and high concentration of SHAM, has been expressed.     

Climate response of Picea schrenkiana based on tree-ring width and maximum density

The effect of global warming on alpine forests is complex. It is crucial, therefore, to investigate the effects of climate change on the radial growth of trees at different altitudes. The tree growth–climate relationship remains poorly understood at large spatial scales in the Tianshan Mountains, China. Schrenk spruce (P. schrenkiana) is a unique tree species to this area. In this study, we collected tree-ring width and maximum density data from nine plots along an altitudinal gradient. Results showed that altitude affected both tree-ring width and maximum density. At high altitudes, tree-ring width was positively correlated with temperature in February of the current year. Tree-ring width was also positively correlated with precipitation in July of the previous year, and January and July of the current year, and negatively correlated with the monthly diurnal temperature range (DTR). At low altitudes, tree-ring width was negatively correlated with temperature in the early growing season and the growing season. Tree-ring width was positively correlated with precipitation in June and September of the previous year, and May of the current year. The tree-ring maximum density was positively correlated with temperature and the DTR of the growing season, and negatively correlated with precipitation in winter and growing season. Moving correlation analysis showed that the positive response of tree-ring width to precipitation in the growing season was enhanced over time at high altitudes. In the low-altitude trees, the negative response of tree-ring width to temperature in the growing season was reduced, while the positive response to precipitation in the growing season was enhanced. The positive response relationship between tree-ring maximum density and the temperature in July weakened over time. At low altitudes, the negative response of tree-ring maximum density to winter precipitation was strengthened, and a stable negative response to July precipitation was observed. As the climate becomes wetter and warmer in the Tianshan Mountains, our results suggest that the radial growth of trees may benefit at elevations above 2400 m a.s.l. There was no obvious elevation limit for the increase in tree-ring maximum density. These findings provide a basis for sustainable forest management under global climate change.     

同域分布的野猪与狍活动节律及与月光周期的关系

完全的竞争者不能共存,物种间生态位分化是同域物种长期稳定共存的基础。不同物种在同一分布区时间生态位的分化对其共存至关重要。为研究同域分布物种的共存机制,在2018年11月到2021年7月利用远红外相机监测技术对穆棱东北红豆杉国家级自然保护区同域分布的野猪(Sus scrofa)和狍(Capreolus pygargus)进行了野外监测研究,并利用核密度估计方法和雅各布斯选择指数(JSI)对日活动节律和一段时间内的活动周期选择进行了评估,同时还利用非参数检验评估了2个物种的活动与月光周期的关系。研究结果表明,狍不管在全年还是在不同的季节,日活动节律均为双峰模式,而野猪的活动模式表现出明显的可塑性,在全年和冷季为单峰型,暖季为双峰型,二者在日活动节律上的重叠程度较高(Dhat>0.59),在暖季的重叠系数最高(Dhat=0.65)。此外,在时间段的选择上,狍在全年和冷季更喜欢在黎明和黄昏活动(0.170.32),而野猪活动在全年和冷季对白天和黄昏的选择更多(JSI>0.3),暖季则更喜欢在白天活动(J...     

Natural and human causes of earwig mortality during winter: temperature,parasitoids and soil tillage

Beneficial arthropods are often used for suppressing specific pest outbreaks in agricultural crop systems. The European earwig, Forficula auricularia L., (Dermaptera: Forficulidae), is an important natural enemy in fruit orchards. Recently, ecological studies were published describing earwig dispersal and survival during summer, hereby revealing clear differences between populations with a single brood (SBP) and two broods a year (DBP). In this article, we will describe three potential mortality factors of earwigs during the underground winter period, namely cold temperatures, parasitoids and soil tillage. This knowledge is essential for making efficient management strategies for increasing earwig abundance in fruit orchards. The effect of cold temperatures was checked during a 3‐year semi‐field experiment. Parasitism rates of Triarthria spp. (Fallén) and Ocytata pallipes (Fallén) (Diptera: Tachinidae) were obtained in a rearing experiment. The negative effect of soil tillage on the survival of earwigs nests was checked in a field experiment covering a 4‐year time period. A strong, negative relation between temperature [cooling day degrees (CDD)] and survival of female and male earwigs during winter was found. Male earwigs of SBP died very quickly, mimicking natural conditions. Between 60% and 90% of females do not survive winter. Survival of females in DBP was higher than in SBP. Parasitism rates vary a lot between species, generation, year and location (0–20%). During winter, we found a maximum mortality of 13%. There is a clear trend that soil tillage can reduce the number of nymphs in spring and summer by 50%. Implications for biocontrol are the following: (i) mortality owing to temperature can be predicted using CDD and if necessary preventive management actions can be undertaken to control pests; (ii) parasitism rates are negligible compared to high impact of temperature; and (iii) soil tillage can be timed more accurately using a recently developed day degree model.     

大针茅草原地上生物量形成的规律与特点

大针茅草原能进行光合作用的时间为160—170天。地上生物量的季节生长曲线呈单峰型,适宜的收获期在8月份。地上生物量的增长与群落的高度增长呈明显相关(R=0.959)。立枯量于6月份开始出现,其增长规律与绿色量呈相反的趋势。刈割后的再生草量以春季(5月份)刈割后的产量最高。仲夏(7月份)刈割对草场生产力的威胁最大。群落产量结构的研究表明：5己于人cm以上可供牲畜采食的部分约占总产量的70—80％。     

近60年来印江河流域极端气候演变及其对净初级生产力和归一化植被指数的影响

极端气候事件的发生改变了区域水热条件,并影响着生态环境变化。然而,目前长时间尺度上极端气候的演变规律及其对生态环境的影响尚不明晰。采用Mann-Kendall趋势及突变检验法、连续小波变换和Hurst指数法揭示了喀斯特槽谷印江河流域极端气候的变化趋势、突变时间、周期性特征和未来演变规律,并利用Lindeman-Merenda-Gold模型定量评估了极端气候溶变对生态环境变化的影响。结果表明：(1)印江河流域极端气温显著上升,降雨量增多,呈现湿热多雨的气候特征。未来极端气温事件持续等级将更高,持续强度也更强。(2)同类型极端气候具有潜在的关联性,但不同类型极端气候间的影响较小,且多呈负相关。(3)印江河流域平均净初级生产力(NPP)和归一化植被指数(NDVI)在2000—2015年间呈现相反的变化趋势,NPP平均值为598.53 g C m^-2 a^-1,平均减少速率为-3.32 g C m^-2 a^-1。NDVI平均值为0.59,平均增长速率为0.0013/a。(4)冷持续指数(CSDI)、平均温差(D...     

Larger diurnal temperature range undermined later autumn leaf senescence with warming in Europe

Aim

Climate change regulates autumn leaf senescence date (LSD), exhibiting a strong phenological control of plant carbon uptake. Unlike the delaying effect of daily mean temperature (T_mean) on LSD, the impact of warming asymmetry in daytime and nighttime, as evidenced by variations of the diurnal temperature range (DTR), remains elusive. The objectives of this study were to investigate physiological and ecological impacts of DTR on LSD using long-term in situ observations and to predict the future trends of LSD under warming.

Location

Europe.

Time period

1950–2015.

Major taxa studied

Plant phenology.

Methods

We used partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and ridge regression to explore the impacts of DTR on LSD. To quantify the importance of potential drivers of LSD, we trained random forest models and applied the SHapley Additive exPlanations method to isolate the marginal contributions of each predictor on LSD. For LSD modelling and projection, we first evaluated two temperature-driven LSD models [i.e., cooling-degree-day (CDD, without DTR effect) and day–night-temperature CDD (DN_CDD, with DTR effect)], then applied them to predict future LSDs.

Results

We found that observational increases in T_mean and DTR had contrasting effects on LSD. Increased T_mean delayed the LSD, whereas larger DTR overall had an advancing effect. Considering the DTR effect, the T_mean sensitivity of LSD was 14% lower than presently estimated (2.4 vs. 2.8 days °C⁻¹). Warming asymmetry-related drought stress and plant functional traits (i.e., plant isohydricity and water-use efficiency) potentially explained the advancing effect of DTR on LSD. We found that current projections of future LSD are overestimated because the DTR effect is discounted, suggesting the need for an adequate understanding of how plant phenology responds to warming asymmetry.

Main conclusions

Our findings highlight the importance of DTR in controlling LSD variations with an advancing-dominant effect and call for the improvement of phenology modelling incorporating the DTR effect. Given that DTR showed a globally narrowing trend over the last several decades, more efforts are needed to understand the potential ecological impacts of warming asymmetry and vegetation response to climate change.     

Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.     

On the association between daily mortality and air mass types in Athens,Greece during winter and summer

In this study, we examined the short-term effects of air mass types on mortality in Athens, Greece. An objective air mass types classification was used, based on meteorological parameters measured at the surface. Mortality data were treated with generalized additive models (GAM) and extending Poisson regression, using a LOESS smoother to control for the confounding effects of seasonal patterns, adjusting also for temperature, long-term trends, day of the week, and ambient particle concentrations. The introduced air mass classification explains the daily variation of mortality to a statistically significant degree. The highest daily mortality was observed on days characterized by southerly flow conditions for both the cold (increase in relative risk for mortality 9%; with a 95% confidence interval: 3-14%), and the warm period (7%; with a 95% confidence interval: 2-13%) of the year. The northeasterly flow is associated with the lowest mortality. Effects on mortality, independent of temperature, are observed mainly for lag 0 during the cold period, but persist longer during the warm period. Not adjusting for temperature and/or ambient particle levels slightly alters the results, which then reflect the known temperature and particle effects, already reported in the literature. In conclusion, we find that air mass types have independent effects on mortality for both the cold and warm season and may be used to predict weather-related adverse health effects.     

Comparing early embryo mortality in dairy cows during hot and cool seasons of the year

The objectives of this study were to identify the level and stage of embryonic mortality that occur in dairy cows during hot and cool seasons of the year. Experimental dairy cows, of varying ages, were artificially inseminated with frozen-thawed semen from proven Holstein sires. Females on each dairy unit were then randomly allocated to one of three experimental groups after partitioning by day of artificial insemination, days post partum, parity, and current milk production level. In Group I and Group II, nonsurgical embryo collection was performed on each cow using Dulbecco's phosphate-buffered saline as the flushing medium. Embryos from cows in Group I were collected on Days 6 or 7 post insemination during the hot (n=93) and cool (n=64) seasons. Embryos from cows in Group II were collected on Days 13 or 14 post insemination during the hot (n=97) and cool (n=63) seasons. In Group III, contemporary control cows were also inseminated during the hot (n=106) and cool (n=106) seasons, and fetal heart beat was evaluated via ultrasound between Days 25 and 35 following insemination. Embryo viability decreased (P<0.05) from 59% at Day 7 to 27% at Day 14 in the hot season, but was not decreased during the cool season (52 vs. 60%). Pregnancy rate at Days 25 to 35 was 21% in the hot season, which was less (P<0.05) than the 36% in the cool season. The percentage of unfertilized ova collected in both the hot and cool seasons suggests that fertilization failure was not affected by season of breeding. In summary, embryonic loss after Day 7 of pregnancy appears to be a problem in this hot, dry climate.     

Larval abundance and recruitment of Carcinus maenas L. close to its southern geographic limit: a case of match and mismatch

In the Ria Formosa lagoon (S. Portugal), Carcinus maenas larvae have been observed only during the cold part of the year (October–May), when the water temperature stays below 23 °C. Larvae suffer high mortality during day time (about 80% during 6 h). Hence, they will only develop outside the lagoon, as proved by the observation of zoea I stages exclusively. Main recruitment starts in April, i.e. much later than the first larvae appear. Small crabs prefer Zostera noltii patches and colonize other sites when the carapace width exceeds about 5 mm. A reserve of some small crabs is found in Zostera noltii patches nearly all year round. It is postulated that one of the key factors for successful propagation of the species is a match between physiological reactions (here in particular temperature effect on reproductive cycle and larval release), and the ecological conditions for larval survival and recruitment, such as predator impact, food availability or currents.     

Effect of photoperiod experienced by parents on diapause induction in Trichogramma cacoeciae

In the genus Trichogramma, the prepupal stage can survive the cold season in diapause. However, optimal conditions for the induction of this cessation of development during the process of mass production of the parasitoid in a biological control program depend on the species. In Trichogramma cacoeciae Marchal (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae), diapause is induced more easily if the parents are reared under short‐day conditions (L10:D14), and if the temperature is 10 °C rather than 13 °C. However, the effect of parental photoperiod on diapause induction is weaker at lower temperatures (10 °C). Following diapause induction, individuals can be stored at 3 °C for several months, up to 1 year. Non‐optimal conditions led to the establishment of a quiescent state in some or all individuals. In such cases, it was necessary to reduce the storage period to 1 or 2 months only, to prevent high mortality rates and low fecundity.     

Daily and hourly movement of male desert-dwelling elephants

The daily and hourly movements of eight male desert-dwelling elephants of various ages (12–45 years old) were determined hourly by global positioning system (GPS)/telemetry collars during the wet, cold dry and hot dry seasons of 2006 in northwest Namibia. The average daily movement in the wet season was greater than that observed during either the cold dry or the hot dry seasons. A similar difference was also observed for the movement rates, with the highest average rate of hourly movement recorded during the wet season. The diurnal movements (both distance and rate) were greater than those in the nocturnal hours during the wet season, whilst during the cold dry and hot dry season the reverse was true. The daily cycle of movement also changed seasonally, with greatest movement rates observed during the wet season between 11.00–20.00 hours, during the cold dry season between 14.00–21.00 hours; and between 04.00–11.00 hours during the hot dry season. Periods of decreased movement rates were observed between 09.00–10.00 and 02.00–03.00 hours in the wet season; 03.00–06.00 and 11.00–13.00 hours in the cold dry season; and 01.00–03.00 and 12.00–14.00 hours during the hot dry season.