Density-dependent cladogenesis in birds

A characteristic signature of adaptive radiation is a slowing of the rate of speciation toward the present. On the basis of molecular phylogenies, studies of single clades have frequently found evidence for a slowdown in diversification rate and have interpreted this as evidence for density dependent speciation. However, we demonstrated via simulation that large clades are expected to show stronger slowdowns than small clades, even if the probability of speciation and extinction remains constant through time. This is a consequence of exponential growth: clades, which, by chance, diversify at above the average rate early in their history, will tend to be large. They will also tend to regress back to the average diversification rate later on, and therefore show a slowdown. We conducted a meta-analysis of the distribution of speciation events through time, focusing on sequence-based phylogenies for 45 clades of birds. Thirteen of the 23 clades (57%) that include more than 20 species show significant slowdowns. The high frequency of slowdowns observed in large clades is even more extreme than expected under a purely stochastic constant-rate model, but is consistent with the adaptive radiation model. Taken together, our data strongly support a model of density-dependent speciation in birds, whereby speciation slows as ecological opportunities and geographical space place limits on clade growth.     

When should we expect early bursts of trait evolution in comparative data? Predictions from an evolutionary food web model

Conceptual models of adaptive radiation predict that competitive interactions among species will result in an early burst of speciation and trait evolution followed by a slowdown in diversification rates. Empirical studies often show early accumulation of lineages in phylogenetic trees, but usually fail to detect early bursts of phenotypic evolution. We use an evolutionary simulation model to assemble food webs through adaptive radiation, and examine patterns in the resulting phylogenetic trees and species' traits (body size and trophic position). We find that when foraging trade-offs result in food webs where all species occupy integer trophic levels, lineage diversity and trait disparity are concentrated early in the tree, consistent with the early burst model. In contrast, in food webs in which many omnivorous species feed at multiple trophic levels, high levels of turnover of species' identities and traits tend to eliminate the early burst signal. These results suggest testable predictions about how the niche structure of ecological communities may be reflected by macroevolutionary patterns.     

Estimating diversification rates from phylogenetic information

Patterns of species richness reflect the balance between speciation and extinction over the evolutionary history of life. These processes are influenced by the size and geographical complexity of regions, conditions of the environment, and attributes of individuals and species. Diversity within clades also depends on age and thus the time available for accumulating species. Estimating rates of diversification is key to understanding how these factors have shaped patterns of species richness. Several approaches to calculating both relative and absolute rates of speciation and extinction within clades are based on phylogenetic reconstructions of evolutionary relationships. As the size and quality of phylogenies increases, these approaches will find broader application. However, phylogeny reconstruction fosters a perceptual bias of continual increase in species richness, and the analysis of primarily large clades produces a data selection bias. Recognizing these biases will encourage the development of more realistic models of diversification and the regulation of species richness.     

The ecological dynamics of clade diversification and community assembly

Clades diversify in an ecological context, but most macroevolutionary models do not directly encapsulate ecological mechanisms that influence speciation and extinction. A data set of 245 chordate, arthropod, mollusk, and magnoliophyte phylogenies had a majority of clades that showed rapid lineage accumulation early with a slowing more recently, whereas a small but significant minority showed accelerated lineage accumulation in their recent histories. Previous analyses have demonstrated that macroevolutionary birth-death models can replicate the pattern of slowing lineage accumulation only by a strong decrease in speciation rate with increasing species richness and extinction rate held extremely low or absent. In contrast, the metacommunity model presented here could generate the full range of patterns seen in the real phylogenies by simply manipulating the degree of ecological differentiation of new species at the time of speciation. Specifically, the metacommunity model predicts that clades showing decelerating lineage accumulation rates are those that have diversified by ecological modes of speciation, whereas clades showing accelerating lineage accumulation rates are those that have diversified primarily by modes of speciation that generate little or no ecological diversification. A number of testable predictions that integrate data from molecular systematics, community ecology, and biogeography are also discussed.     

A comparative study of mammalian diversification pattern

Although mammals have long been regarded as a successful radiation, the diversification pattern among the clades is still poorly known. Higher-level phylogenies are conflicting and comprehensive comparative analyses are still lacking. Using a recently published supermatrix encompassing nearly all extant mammalian families and a novel comparative likelihood approach (MEDUSA), the diversification pattern of mammalian groups was examined. Both order- and family-level phylogenetic analyses revealed the rapid radiation of Boreoeutheria and Euaustralidelphia in the early mammalian history. The observation of a diversification burst within Boreoeutheria at approximately 100 My supports the Long Fuse model in elucidating placental diversification progress, and the rapid radiation of Euaustralidelphia suggests an important role of biogeographic dispersal events in triggering early Australian marsupial rapid radiation. Diversification analyses based on family-level diversity tree revealed seven additional clades with exceptional diversification rate shifts, six of which represent accelerations in net diversification rate as compared to the background pattern. The shifts gave origin to the clades Muridae+Cricetidae, Bovidae+Moschidae+Cervidae, Simiiformes, Echimyidae, Odontoceti (excluding Physeteridae+Kogiidae+Platanistidae), Macropodidae, and Vespertilionidae. Moderate to high extinction rates from background and boreoeutherian diversification patterns indicate the important role of turnovers in shaping the heterogeneous taxonomic richness observed among extant mammalian groups. Furthermore, the present results emphasize the key role of extinction on erasing unusual diversification signals, and suggest that further studies are needed to clarify the historical radiation of some mammalian groups for which MEDUSA did not detect exceptional diversification rates.     

Rapid speciation and ecological divergence in the American seven-spined gobies (Gobiidae,Gobiosomatini) inferred from a molecular phylogeny

Abstract.— The American seven-spined gobies (Gobiidae, Gobiosomatini) are highly diverse both in morphology and ecology with many endemics in the Caribbean region. We have reconstructed a molecular phylogeny of 54 Gobio-somatini taxa (65 individuals) based on a 1646-bp region that includes the mitochondrial 12S rRNA, tRNA-Val, and 16S rRNA genes. Our results support the monophyly of the seven-spined gobies and are in agreement with the existence of two major groups within the tribe, the Gobiosoma group and the Microgobius group. However, they reject the monophyly of some of the Gobiosomatini genera. We use the molecular phylogeny to study the dynamics of speciation in the Gobiosomatini by testing for departures from the constant speciation rate model. We observe a burst of speciation in the early evolutionary history of the group and a subsequent slowdown. Our results show a split among clades into coastal-estuarian, deep ocean, and tropical reef habitats. Major habitat shifts account for the early significant acceleration in lineage splitting and speciation rate and the initial divergence of the main Gobiosomatini clades. We found that subsequent diversification is triggered by behavior and niche specializations at least in the reef-associated clades. Overall, our results confirm that the diversity of Gobiosomatini has arisen during episodes of adaptive radiation, and emphasize the importance of ecology in marine speciation.     

Primate diversification inferred from phylogenies and fossils

Biodiversity arises from the balance between speciation and extinction. Fossils record the origins and disappearance of organisms, and the branching patterns of molecular phylogenies allow estimation of speciation and extinction rates, but the patterns of diversification are frequently incongruent between these two data sources. I tested two hypotheses about the diversification of primates based on ～600 fossil species and 90% complete phylogenies of living species: (1) diversification rates increased through time; (2) a significant extinction event occurred in the Oligocene. Consistent with the first hypothesis, analyses of phylogenies supported increasing speciation rates and negligible extinction rates. In contrast, fossils showed that while speciation rates increased, speciation and extinction rates tended to be nearly equal, resulting in zero net diversification. Partially supporting the second hypothesis, the fossil data recorded a clear pattern of diversity decline in the Oligocene, although diversification rates were near zero. The phylogeny supported increased extinction ～34 Ma, but also elevated extinction ～10 Ma, coinciding with diversity declines in some fossil clades. The results demonstrated that estimates of speciation and extinction ignoring fossils are insufficient to infer diversification and information on extinct lineages should be incorporated into phylogenetic analyses.     

The shape and temporal dynamics of phylogenetic trees arising from geographic speciation

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth-death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth-death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.     

Exploring the tempo of species diversification in legumes

Whatever criteria are used to measure evolutionary success – species numbers, geographic range, ecological abundance, ecological and life history diversity, background diversification rates, or the presence of rapidly evolving clades – the legume family is one of the most successful lineages of flowering plants. Despite this, we still know rather little about the dynamics of lineage and species diversification across the family through the Cenozoic, or about the underlying drivers of diversification. There have been few attempts to estimate net species diversification rates or underlying speciation and extinction rates for legume clades, to test whether among-lineage variation in diversification rates deviates from null expectations, or to locate species diversification rate shifts on specific branches of the legume phylogenetic tree. In this study, time-calibrated phylogenetic trees for a set of species-rich legume clades – Calliandra, Indigofereae, Lupinus, Mimosa and Robinieae – and for the legume family as a whole, are used to explore how we might approach these questions. These clades are analysed using recently developed maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods to detect species diversification rate shifts and test for among-lineage variation in speciation, extinction and net diversification rates. Possible explanations for rate shifts in terms of extrinsic factors and/or intrinsic trait evolution are discussed. In addition, several methodological issues and limitations associated with these analyses are highlighted emphasizing the potential to improve our understanding of the evolutionary dynamics of legume diversification by using much more densely sampled phylogenetic trees that integrate information across broad taxonomic, geographical and temporal levels.     

EXPLOSIVE EVOLUTIONARY RADIATIONS: DECREASING SPECIATION OR INCREASING EXTINCTION THROUGH TIME?

A common pattern in time-calibrated molecular phylogenies is a signal of rapid diversification early in the history of a radiation. Because the net rate of diversification is the difference between speciation and extinction rates, such "explosive-early" diversification could result either from temporally declining speciation rates or from increasing extinction rates through time. Distinguishing between these alternatives is challenging but important, because these processes likely result from different ecological drivers of diversification. Here we develop a method for estimating speciation and extinction rates that vary continuously through time. By applying this approach to real phylogenies with explosive-early diversification and by modeling features of lineage-accumulation curves under both declining speciation and increasing extinction scenarios, we show that a signal of explosive-early diversification in phylogenies of extant taxa cannot result from increasing extinction and can only be explained by temporally declining speciation rates. Moreover, whenever extinction rates are high, "explosive early" patterns become unobservable, because high extinction quickly erases the signature of even large declines in speciation rates. Although extinction may obscure patterns of evolutionary diversification, these results show that decreasing speciation is often distinguishable from increasing extinction in the numerous molecular phylogenies of radiations that retain a preponderance of early lineages.     

Detecting shifts in diversity limits from molecular phylogenies: what can we know?

Large complete species-level molecular phylogenies can provide the most direct information about the macroevolutionary history of clades having poor fossil records. However, extinction will ultimately erode evidence of pulses of rapid speciation in the deep past. Assessment of how well, and for how long, phylogenies retain the signature of such pulses has hitherto been based on a--probably untenable--model of ongoing diversity-independent diversification. Here, we develop two new tests for changes in diversification 'rules' and evaluate their power to detect sudden increases in equilibrium diversity in clades simulated with diversity-dependent speciation and extinction rates. Pulses of diversification are only detected easily if they occurred recently and if the rate of species turnover at equilibrium is low; rates reported for fossil mammals suggest that the power to detect a doubling of species diversity falls to 50 per cent after less than 50 Myr even with a perfect phylogeny of extant species. Extinction does eventually draw a veil over past dynamics, suggesting that some questions are beyond the limits of inference, but sudden clade-wide pulses of speciation can be detected after many millions of years, even when overall diversity is constrained. Applying our methods to existing phylogenies of mammals and angiosperms identifies intervals of elevated diversification in each.     

Signatures of random and selective mass extinctions in phylogenetic tree balance

Current models of diversification with evolving speciation rates have trouble mimicking the extreme imbalance seen in estimated phylogenies. However, these models have not incorporated extinction. Here, we report on a simple simulation model that includes heritable and evolving speciation rates coupled with mass extinctions, Random (but not selective) mass extinctions, coupled with evolving among-lineage variation in speciation rates, increase imbalance of postrecovery clades. Thus, random mass extinctions are plausible contributors to the imbalance of modern clades. Paleontological evidence suggests that mass extinctions are often random with respect to ecological and morphological traits, consistent with our simulations. In contrast, evidence that the current anthropogenic mass extinction is phylogenetically selective suggests that the current extinction episode may be qualitatively different from past ones in the way it reshapes future biotas.     

Molecular phylogenies and historical biogeography of a circumtropical group of gastropods (Genus: Nerita): implications for regional diversity patterns in the marine tropics

To determine how historical processes, namely speciation, extinction, and dispersal, have contributed to regional species diversity patterns across the marine tropics, we examined the biogeographical history of a circumtropical genus of intertidal gastropods. A species-level phylogeny of Nerita, representing approximately 87% of extant species, was developed from 1608bp of mitochondrial (COI and 16S) and nuclear (ATPSalpha) markers. Phylogenetic relationships generally corresponded to prior classifications; however, comprehensive sampling revealed a number of previously undetected ESUs. Using the resulting tree as a framework, we combined geographical distributions and fossil evidence to reconstruct ancestral ranges, produce a time-calibrated chronogram, and estimate diversification rates. Analyses revealed two monophyletic eastern Pacific+Atlantic (EPA) clades, each of which likely split from an Indo-West Pacific (IWP) sister clade prior to an early Miocene Tethys Seaway closure. More recent diversification throughout the IWP appears to have been driven by both vicariance and dispersal events; EPA diversity has been further shaped by speciation across the Central American Seaway prior to its closure and dispersal across the Atlantic. Despite the latter, inter-regional dispersal has been rare, and likely contributes little to regional diversity patterns. Similarly, infrequent transitions into temperate regions combined with reduced diversification rates may explain low diversity in West and South Pacific clades. Since origination, Nerita diversification appears remarkably constant, with the exception of a lag in the late Eocene-early Oligocene and elevated rates in the late Oligocene-early Miocene. However, a comparison among regions suggested that IWP clades have experienced, on average, higher rates of speciation. Fossil evidence indicates that the EPA likely witnessed greater extinction relative to the IWP. We propose that regional differences in species diversity in Nerita have been largely shaped by differential rates of speciation and extinction.     

Rapid cladogenesis in marine fishes revisited

Lineages that underwent rapid cladogenesis are attractive systems for the study of mechanisms underlying taxonomic, ecological, morphological, and behavioral diversification. Recently developed statistical methods provide insights into historical patterns of diversity and allow distinguishing bursts of cladogenesis from stochastic background rates in the presence of confounding factors such as extinction and incomplete taxon sampling. Here, we compare the dynamics of speciation in several marine fish lineages some of which were previously proposed to have undergone significant changes of cladogenesis through time. We tested for evidence of episodes of rapid cladogenesis using the constant rate and Monte Carlo constant rate tests that are robust to incomplete taxon sampling. These tests employ the statistic gamma to measure the relative position of internal node in a chronogram. For the first time, we conducted a comparative analysis to address the behavior of the statistic under different chronogram-constructing methods (Langley-Fitch, nonparametric rate smoothing, and penalized likelihood). Although estimates of gamma sometimes differ widely among methods, acceptance or rejection of the constant rate model within a particular clade appears to be robust to the choice of method. Bursts of cladogenesis were detected in 14 of 34 studied datasets. Some of these were previously proposed to represent marine fish "radiations," whereas others are identified anew. Our results indicate that the wider application of tree shape methods that are able to detect significantly elevated rates of speciation is useful to more precisely define clades that underwent episodes of rapid cladogenesis in marine fish clades. Contrasting the patterns of phylogenetic diversification in marine fish lineages may facilitate the identification of common evolutionary trajectories versus idiosyncrasies, and ultimately help towards a better understanding of the factors and processes underlying speciation in the marine realm.     

Rapid allopatric speciation in logperch darters (Percidae: Percina)

Theory predicts that clades diversifying via sympatric speciation will exhibit high diversification rates. However, the expected rate of diversification in clades characterized by allopatric speciation is less clear. Previous studies have documented significantly higher speciation rates in freshwater fish clades diversifying via sympatric versus allopatric modes, leading to suggestions that the geographic pattern of speciation can be inferred solely from knowledge of the diversification rate. We tested this prediction using an example from darters, a clade of approximately 200 species of freshwater fishes endemic to eastern North America. A resolved phylogeny was generated using mitochondrial DNA gene sequences for logperches, a monophyletic group of darters composed of 10 recognized species. Divergence times among logperch species were estimated using a fossil calibrated molecular clock in centrarchid fishes, and diversification rates in logperches were estimated using several methods. Speciation events in logperches are recent, extending from 4.20 +/- 1.06 million years ago (mya) to 0.42 +/- 0.22 mya, with most speciation events occurring in the Pleistocene. Diversification rates are high in logperches, at some nodes exceeding rates reported for well-studied adaptive radiations such as Hawaiian silverswords. The geographic pattern of speciation in logperches was investigated by examining the relationship between degree of sympatry and the absolute age of the contrast, with the result that diversification in logperches appears allopatric. The very high diversification rate observed in the logperch phylogeny is more similar to freshwater fish clades thought to represent examples of sympatric speciation than to clades representing allopatric speciation. These results demonstrate that the geographic mode of speciation for a clade cannot be inferred from the diversification rate. The empirical observation of high diversification rates in logperches demonstrates that allopatric speciation can occur rapidly.     

Comparing the rates of speciation and extinction between phylogenetic trees

Over the past decade or so it has become increasingly popular to use reconstructed evolutionary trees to investigate questions about the rates of speciation and extinction. Although the methodology of this field has grown substantially in its sophistication in recent years, here I will take a step back to present a very simple model that is designed to investigate the relatively straightforward question of whether the tempo of diversification (speciation and extinction) differs between two or more phylogenetic trees, without attempting to attribute a causal basis to this difference. It is a likelihood method, and I demonstrate that it generally shows type I error that is close to the nominal level. I also demonstrate that parameter estimates obtained with this approach are largely unbiased. As this method can be used to compare trees of unknown relationship, it will be particularly well‐suited to problems in which a difference in diversification rate between clades is suspected, but in which these clades are not particularly closely related. As diversification methods can easily take into account an incomplete sampling fraction, but missing lineages are assumed to be missing at random, this method is also appropriate for cases in which we have hypothesized a difference in the process of diversification between two or more focal clades, but in which many unsampled groups separate the few of interest. The method of this study is by no means an attempt to replace more sophisticated models in which, for instance, diversification depends on the state of an observed or unobserved discrete or continuous trait. Rather, my intention is to provide a complementary approach for circumstances in which a simpler hypothesis is warranted and of biological interest.     

Angiosperm diversification through time

The extraordinary diversity of angiosperms is the ultimate outcome of the interplay of speciation and extinction, which determine the net diversification of different lineages. We document the temporal trends of angiosperm diversification rates during their early history. Absolute diversification rates were estimated for order-level clades using ages derived from relaxed molecular clock analyses that included or excluded a maximal constraint to angiosperm age. Diversification rates for angiosperms as a whole ranged from 0.0781 to 0.0909 net speciation events per million years, with dates from the constrained analysis. Diversification through time plots show an inverse relationship between clade age and rate, where the younger clades tend to have the highest rates. Angiosperm diversity is found to have mixed origins: slightly less than half of the living species belong to lineages with low to moderate diversification rates, which appeared between 130 and 102 Mya (Barremian-uppermost Albian; Lower Cretaceous). Slightly over half of the living species belong to lineages with moderate to high diversification rates, which appeared between 102 and 77 Mya (Cenomanian-mid Campanian; Upper Cretaceous). Terminal lineages leading to living angiosperm species, however, may have originated soon or long after the phylogenetic differentiation of the clade to which they belong.     

Congruent phylogenetic and fossil signatures of mammalian diversification dynamics driven by Tertiary abiotic change

Computational methods for estimating diversification rates from extant species phylogenetic trees have become abundant in evolutionary research. However, little evidence exists about how their outcome compares to a complementary and direct source of information: the fossil record. Furthermore, there is virtually no direct test for the congruence of evolutionary rates based on these two sources. This task is only achievable in clades with both a well‐known fossil record and a complete phylogenetic tree. Here, we compare the evolutionary rates of ruminant mammals as estimated from their vast paleontological record—over 1200 species spanning 50 myr—and their living‐species phylogeny. Significantly, our results revealed that the ruminant's fossil record and phylogeny reflect congruent evolutionary processes. The concordance is especially strong for the last 25 myr, when living groups became a dominant part of ruminant diversity. We found empirical support for previous hypotheses based on simulations and neontological data: The pattern captured by the tree depends on how clade specific the processes are and which clades are involved. Also, we report fossil evidence for a postradiation speciation slowdown coupled with constant, moderate extinction in the Miocene. The recent deceleration in phylogenetic rates is connected to rapid extinction triggered by recent climatic fluctuations.     

Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation

Molecular phylogenies are increasingly being used to investigate the patterns and mechanisms of macroevolution. In particular, node heights in a phylogeny can be used to detect changes in rates of diversification over time. Such analyses rest on the assumption that node heights in a phylogeny represent the timing of diversification events, which in turn rests on the assumption that evolutionary time can be accurately predicted from DNA sequence divergence. But there are many influences on the rate of molecular evolution, which might also influence node heights in molecular phylogenies, and thus affect estimates of diversification rate. In particular, a growing number of studies have revealed an association between the net diversification rate estimated from phylogenies and the rate of molecular evolution. Such an association might, by influencing the relative position of node heights, systematically bias estimates of diversification time. We simulated the evolution of DNA sequences under several scenarios where rates of diversification and molecular evolution vary through time, including models where diversification and molecular evolutionary rates are linked. We show that commonly used methods, including metric‐based, likelihood and Bayesian approaches, can have a low power to identify changes in diversification rate when molecular substitution rates vary. Furthermore, the association between the rates of speciation and molecular evolution rate can cause the signature of a slowdown or speedup in speciation rates to be lost or misidentified. These results suggest that the multiple sources of variation in molecular evolutionary rates need to be considered when inferring macroevolutionary processes from phylogenies.     

HOW DOES ECOLOGICAL OPPORTUNITY INFLUENCE RATES OF SPECIATION,EXTINCTION, AND MORPHOLOGICAL DIVERSIFICATION IN NEW WORLD RATSNAKES (TRIBE LAMPROPELTINI)?

Ecological adaptive radiation theory predicts an increase in both morphological and specific diversification when organisms colonize new environments. Accordingly, bursts of morphological diversification, characterized by low within‐subclade morphological disparity, may be associated with these increases in speciation rates. Conversely, increasing species density, reduction in available habitat, or increasing extinction rates are expected to cause rates of diversification to decline. We test these hypotheses by examining the tempo and mode of speciation in the lampropeltinine snakes, a morphologically variable group that colonized the New World ～24 million years ago and radiated throughout the Miocene. We show that specific diversification increased early in the history of the group, and that most morphological variation is partitioned among, rather than within subclades. These patterns provide further evidence for the hypothesis that morphological variation tends to be strongly partitioned among lineages when clades undergo early bursts of species diversification. A reduction in speciation rates may be indicative of density dependent effects due to a saturation of available ecological opportunity, rather than increases in extinction rates at the onset of the Pleistocene/Pliocene glacial cycles. This evidence runs counter to the general Pleistocene species pump model.