Qualitative analysis of an HIV transmission model.

In 1988, a multiple-group model for HIV transmission with preferred mixing was proposed by Jacquez and coworkers. In the present paper, the work done by Jacquez et al. is extended. It is shown that the stability modulus of the Jacobian matrix at the no-disease equilibrium is a threshold for this model. Furthermore, if the no-disease equilibrium is unstable, the number of infected individuals will remain above a certain positive level regardless of initial levels; that is, the disease will persist uniformly. The stability of the endemic equilibrium in the case of restricted mixing is also studied. A series of sufficient conditions for local and global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium are stated.     

Sustained and transient oscillations and chaos induced by delayed antiviral immune response in an immunosuppressive infection model

Sustained and transient oscillations are frequently observed in clinical data for immune responses in viral infections such as human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus. To account for these oscillations, we incorporate the time lag needed for the expansion of immune cells into an immunosuppressive infection model. It is shown that the delayed antiviral immune response can induce sustained periodic oscillations, transient oscillations and even sustained aperiodic oscillations (chaos). Both local and global Hopf bifurcation theorems are applied to show the existence of periodic solutions, which are illustrated by bifurcation diagrams and numerical simulations. Two types of bistability are shown to be possible: (i) a stable equilibrium can coexist with another stable equilibrium, and (ii) a stable equilibrium can coexist with a stable periodic solution.     

Models for the spread of universally fatal diseases

In the formulation of models of S-I-R type for the spread of communicable diseases it is necessary to distinguish between diseases with recovery with full immunity and diseases with permanent removal by death. We consider models which include nonlinear population dynamics with permanent removal. The principal result is that the stability of endemic equilibrium may depend on the population dynamics and on the distribution of infective periods; sustained oscillations are possible in some cases.     

Oscillations in a patchy environment disease model

For a single patch SIRS model with a period of immunity of fixed length, recruitment-death demographics, disease related deaths and mass action incidence, the basic reproduction number R(0) is identified. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R(0)<1. For R(0)>1, local stability of the endemic equilibrium and Hopf bifurcation analysis about this equilibrium are carried out. Moreover, a practical numerical approach to locate the bifurcation values for a characteristic equation with delay-dependent coefficients is provided. For a two patch SIRS model with travel, it is shown that there are several threshold quantities determining its dynamic behavior and that travel can reduce oscillations in both patches; travel may enhance oscillations in both patches; or travel can switch oscillations from one patch to another.     

Chemical oscillations arise solely from kinetic nonlinearity and hence can occur near equilibrium.

A minimal kinetic scheme for a system displaying sustained chemical oscillations is presented. The system is isothermal, and all steps in the scheme are kinetically reversible. The oscillations are analyzed and the crucial points elucidated. Both positive and negative feedback, if properly introduced, support oscillations, provided the state responsible for feedback is optimally buffered. It is shown that the requisite nonlinearity is introduced at the kinetic level because of feedback regulation and not, as is usually assumed, by large affinities that introduce nonlinearity at the thermodynamic level. Hence, sustained oscillations may occur near equilibrium.     

Stability and Bifurcations in an Epidemic Model with Varying Immunity Period

An epidemic model with distributed time delay is derived to describe the dynamics of infectious diseases with varying immunity. It is shown that solutions are always positive, and the model has at most two steady states: disease-free and endemic. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable. When an endemic equilibrium exists, it is possible to analytically prove its local and global stability using Lyapunov functionals. Bifurcation analysis is performed using DDE-BIFTOOL and traceDDE to investigate different dynamical regimes in the model using numerical continuation for different values of system parameters and different integral kernels.     

Global Hopf bifurcation analysis of an susceptible-infective-removed epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay

An susceptible-infective-removed epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay is proposed. The stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is studied. And then, the conditions which guarantee the existence of local Hopf bifurcation are given. Furthermore, we show that the local Hopf bifurcation implies the global Hopf bifurcation after the second critical value of delay. The obtained results show that the time delay in media coverage can not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. However, the time delay affects the stability of the endemic equilibrium and produces limit cycle oscillations while the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Finally, some examples for numerical simulations are included to support the theoretical prediction.     

Rational behavioral response and the transmission of STDs

The susceptible-infected (SI) model is extended by allowing for individual optimal choices of self-protective actions against infection, where agents differ with respect to preferences and costs of self-protection. It is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium prevalence exists when the basic reproductive number of a STD is strictly greater than unity, and that the disease-free equilibrium is the unique steady state equilibrium when the basic reproductive number is less than or equal to one. Unlike in models that take individual behavior as given and fixed, the endemic equilibrium prevalence need not vary monotonically with respect to the basic reproductive number. Specifically, with endogenously determined self-protective behavior, a reduction in the basic reproductive number may in fact increase the endemic equilibrium prevalence. The global stability of the endemic steady state is established for the case of a homogeneous population by showing that, for any non-zero initial disease prevalence, there exists an equilibrium path which converges to the endemic steady state.     

A diffusive SI model with Allee effect and application to FIV

A minimal reaction-diffusion model for the spatiotemporal spread of an infectious disease is considered. The model is motivated by the Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) which causes AIDS in cat populations. Because the infected period is long compared with the lifespan, the model incorporates the host population growth. Two different types are considered: logistic growth and growth with a strong Allee effect. In the model with logistic growth, the introduced disease propagates in form of a travelling infection wave with a constant asymptotic rate of spread. In the model with Allee effect the spatiotemporal dynamics are more complicated and the disease has considerable impact on the host population spread. Most importantly, there are waves of extinction, which arise when the disease is introduced in the wake of the invading host population. These waves of extinction destabilize locally stable endemic coexistence states. Moreover, spatially restricted epidemics are possible as well as travelling infection pulses that correspond either to fatal epidemics with succeeding host population extinction or to epidemics with recovery of the host population. Generally, the Allee effect induces minimum viable population sizes and critical spatial lengths of the initial distribution. The local stability analysis yields bistability and the phenomenon of transient epidemics within the regime of disease-induced extinction. Sustained oscillations do not exist.     

Existence, multiplicity and stability of endemic states for an age-structured S-I epidemic model

We study an S-I type epidemic model in an age-structured population, with mortality due to the disease. A threshold quantity is found that controls the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and guarantees the existence of an endemic equilibrium. We obtain conditions on the age-dependence of the susceptibility to infection that imply the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium. An example with two endemic equilibria is shown. Finally, we analyse numerically how the stability of the endemic equilibrium is affected by the extra-mortality and by the possible periodicities induced by the demographic age-structure.     

一类具有垂直传染和预防接种的传染病模型的稳定性

考虑了垂直传染和预防接种因素对传染病流行影响的SEIRS模型,主要研究了系统的平衡点及其稳定性,得出当预防接种水平超过某一个阈值时疾病可以根除,若接种水平低于阈值时疾病将流行.     

一类具有标准发生率的SIS型传染病模型的全局稳定性

研究一类具有标准发生率的SIS传染病模型,讨论了各类平衡点存在的条件;运用微分方程的定性理论,得到了无病平衡点E_1和地方病平衡点E_2的全局渐近稳定的充分条件.     

Dynamics and stability of a three-dimensional model of cell signal transduction

In this paper, we consider a three-dimensional model of cell signal transduction. In this model, the deactivation of signalling proteins occur throughout the cytosol and activation is localized to specific sites in the cell. We use matched asymptotic expansions to construct the dynamic solutions of signalling protein concentrations. The result of the asymptotic analysis is a system of ordinary differential equations. This reduced system is compared to numerical simulations of the full three-dimensional system. As well, we consider the stability of equilibrium solutions. We find that the systems under consideration may undergo sustained oscillations, hysteresis and other complex behaviors. The simulations of the full three-dimensional system agree with simulations of the reduced ordinary differential equations.     

Competition in the presence of a virus in an aquatic system: an SIS model in the chemostat

Recent research indicates that viruses are much more prevalent in aquatic environments than previously imagined. We derive a model of competition between two populations of bacteria for a single limiting nutrient in a chemostat where a virus is present. It is assumed that the virus can only infect one of the populations, the population that would be a more efficient consumer of the resource in a virus free environment, in order to determine whether introduction of a virus can result in coexistence of the competing populations. We also analyze the subsystem that results when the resistant competitor is absent. The model takes the form of an SIS epidemic model. Criteria for the global stability of the disease free and endemic steady states are obtained for both the subsystem as well as for the full competition model. However, for certain parameter ranges, bi-stability, and/or multiple periodic orbits is possible and both disease induced oscillations and competition induced oscillations are possible. It is proved that persistence of the vulnerable and resistant populations can occur, but only when the disease is endemic in the population. It is also shown that it is possible to have multiple attracting endemic steady states, oscillatory behavior involving Hopf, saddle-node, and homoclinic bifurcations, and a hysteresis effect. An explicit expression for the basic reproduction number for the epidemic is given in terms of biologically meaningful parameters. Mathematical tools that are used include Lyapunov functions, persistence theory, and bifurcation analysis.     

Analysis of SIR epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate and treatment

This paper deals with the nonlinear dynamics of a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, vertical transmission, vaccination for the newborns of susceptible and recovered individuals, and the capacity of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infectives when it is below the capacity and constant when the number of infectives reaches the capacity. Under some conditions, it is shown that there exists a backward bifurcation from an endemic equilibrium, which implies that the disease-free equilibrium coexists with an endemic equilibrium. In such a case, reducing the basic reproduction number less than unity is not enough to control and eradicate the disease, extra measures are needed to ensure that the solutions approach the disease-free equilibrium. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the model can have multiple endemic equilibria due to the effect of treatment, vaccination and other parameters. The existence and stability of the endemic equilibria of the model are analyzed and sufficient conditions on the existence and stability of a limit cycle are obtained. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analytical results.     

Optimal population stabilization and control using the Leslie matrix model

We consider the problem of optimal stabilization and control of populations which follow the Leslie model dynamics, within state space and control systems theory and methodology. Various types of culling strategies are formulated and introduced into the Leslie model as control inputs, and their effect on global asymptotic stability is investigated. Our new approach provides answers to several unexplored problems. We show that in general it is possible to achieve a desired stable equilibrium population level, through the design of a class ofshifted-proportional stabilizing culling policies. Further, we formulate general non-linear constrained opitmization problems, for obtaining the cost-optimal policy among this generally infinite class of such stabilizing policies. The theoretical findings are illustrated through the solution of the problem over an infinite planning horizon for a numerical example. A comparative study of the costs and dynamic effects of various culling strategies also supports the mathematical results.     

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.      

Oscillatory viral dynamics in a delayed HIV pathogenesis model

We consider an HIV pathogenesis model incorporating antiretroviral therapy and HIV replication time. We investigate the existence and stability of equilibria, as well as Hopf bifurcations to sustained oscillations when drug efficacy is less than 100%. We derive sufficient conditions for the global asymptotic stability of the uninfected steady state. We show that time delay has no effect on the local asymptotic stability of the uninfected steady state, but can destabilize the infected steady state, leading to a Hopf bifurcation to periodic solutions in the realistic parameter ranges.     

The role of seasonality in the dynamics of deer tick populations

In this paper, we formulate a nonlinear system of difference equations that models the three-stage life cycle of the deer tick over four seasons. We study the effect of seasonality on the stability and oscillatory behavior of the tick population by comparing analytically the seasonal model with a non-seasonal one. The analysis of the models reveals the existence of two equilibrium points. We discuss the necessary and sufficient conditions for local asymptotic stability of the equilibria and analyze the boundedness and oscillatory behavior of the solutions. A main result of the mathematical analysis is that seasonality in the life cycle of the deer tick can have a positive effect, in the sense that it increases the stability of the system. It is also shown that for some combination of parameters within the stability region, perturbations will result in a return to the equilibrium through transient oscillations. The models are used to explore the biological consequences of parameter variations reflecting expected environmental changes.     

Asymmetry in the Presence of Migration Stabilizes Multistrain Disease Outbreaks

We study the effect of migration between coupled populations, or patches, on the stability properties of multistrain disease dynamics. The epidemic model used in this work displays a Hopf bifurcation to oscillations in a single, well-mixed population. It is shown numerically that migration between two non-identical patches stabilizes the endemic steady state, delaying the onset of large amplitude outbreaks and reducing the total number of infections. This result is motivated by analyzing generic Hopf bifurcations with different frequencies and with diffusive coupling between them. Stabilization of the steady state is again seen, indicating that our observation in the full multistrain model is based on qualitative characteristics of the dynamics rather than on details of the disease model.