Invasion dynamics of round goby (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Neogobius melanostomus</Emphasis>) in Hamilton Harbour,Lake Ontario

Most introduced non-native species fail to establish as a result of mortality or reproductive failure. An established population can increase the probability of survival and reproductive success of newly introduced individuals by reducing both Allee effects and demographic stochasticity. Previously, attention has been paid to the establishment phase of the invasion process and its probability modelled as a stochastic process, while the spread phase has received less attention. By analyzing data collected during the spread phase of an invasion of the round goby, Neogobius melanostomus, in Hamilton Harbour, Lake Ontario, we develop an analytical approach to backcalculate the time to establishment and to determine the time to habitat saturation. Our modelling shows that: (1) during the transition between arrival and establishment, propagule pressure in the form of new adults entering the area can be very low and still represent a significant probability of establishment; (2) much higher concentrations of juveniles would be needed to pose a significant risk of invasion; (3) the demographic contribution of propagule pressure during the spread phase is low and its total elimination will not halt population growth and spread; (4) a short elapsed time between arrival and establishment indicated that the transition between these two phases can be characterized as a deterministic process with high propagule pressure and low adult mortality rates; and, (5) very aggressive management actions would be needed to halt population growth after population establishment, suggesting that preventative measures are the most effective management options available to reduce risk of future invasions.     

Evaluation of stochastic gravity model selection for use in estimating non-indigenous species dispersal and establishment

Predicting dispersal of nonindigenous species (NIS) is an essential component of risk analysis and management, as preventative measures are most readily applied at this stage of the invasion sequence. Gravity models provide one of the most useful techniques available to model dispersal of nonindigenous invasive species (NIS) across heterogeneous landscapes, as these models are able to capture transport patterns of recreational boaters who are dominant vectors responsible for aquatic NIS dispersal. Despite the widespread use of gravity models in forecasting biological invasions, different classes of gravity models have not been evaluated regarding their comparative ability to capture recreational transport patterns and subsequent use in predicting NIS establishment. Here we evaluate model selection between unconstrained, total-flow-constrained, production-constrained and doubly-constrained stochastic gravity models to assess dispersal of the spiny waterflea Bythotrephes between Ontario lakes. Differences between the models relate to the amount of data required and constraints under which calculations of source/destination interactions are made. For each class of gravity model, we then estimated the probability of a lake having established Bythotrephes populations by modeling the relationship between empirical presence/absence data and inbound recreational traffic (i.e. propagule pressure) via boosted regression. The unconstrained gravity model provided the best fit to observed traffic patterns of recreational boaters. However, when output from the gravity models was used to predict Bythotrephes establishment, the doubly-constrained gravity model provided the strongest relationship between inbound recreational traffic and observed Bythotrephes presence/absence, followed by the production-constrained model. Our results indicate production-constrained gravity models offer an acceptable balance between modeling recreational boater traffic and their utility to estimate establishment probabilities.     

The role of regulatory decision-making on non-indigenous species introductions

Introduction is a critical stage in vertebrates’ invasion process; once imported, they have a high probability of establishment and spread. While there is a consensus that trade is a primary conduit for non-indigenous species (NIS) introductions, and a key locus for preventive regulation, few policies have been evaluated by scientists for effectiveness. A science-based quantitative assessment of regulatory performance could significantly decrease invasion risk. We carried out a quantitative analysis of data on importation permits of terrestrial vertebrates and the reporting system, using the Israeli regulatory system as a model. This regulatory system is based on long-established wildlife protection legislation, now being used to control NIS vertebrates, much as is the case in many other countries. Ecological risk assessment for NIS was sometimes carried out, but it is not mandatory within the regulatory process, and no legally-binding criteria for assessment exist. We found a significant decrease in number of permits issued over the years, but this decrease does not reflect perception of ecological risk. We found permit quotas of much wider volumes than those actually used, indicating that trade volumes are dictated by retailers rather than by regulators. Actual imports are frequently not reported, hindering efforts to assess propagule pressure and to monitor and analyze effects of introductions. We conclude that the regulatory system should be more science-based, that the import database should be formulated to allow future ecological research and mitigation, and that legally-binding ecological risk assessment would contribute significantly to the strength of NIS regulation.     

Variability in the settlement of non-indigenous species in benthic communities from an oceanic island

The introduction of non-indigenous species (NIS) in new environments represents a major threat for coastal ecosystems. A good understanding of the mechanisms and magnitude of the impact of NIS colonisation on native ecosystems is becoming increasingly crucial to develop mitigation measures and prevent new invasions. In this present study, we asked if distinct coastal benthic communities from an oceanic island can have different vulnerability to NIS colonisation process. First, PVC settlement plates were deployed for 1 year on the rocky shore of two different locations of Madeira Island (North versus South coast). Then, we implemented a mesocosm experiment where recruited plate communities were maintained under different levels of NIS propagule pressure in order to assess their vulnerability to NIS colonisation process. Results showed that NIS colonisation success was not influenced by the level of propagule pressure, but however, final colonisation patterns varied depending on the origin of the communities. This variability can be attributed to major structural differences between the preponderant species of each community and therefore to the biotic substrate they offer to colonisers. This study highlights how biotic features can alter the NIS colonisation process and importantly, shows that in an urbanisation context, the nature of the resident communities facing invasions risks needs to be closely assessed.     

Risk analysis of the invasion pathway of the Asian gypsy moth: a known forest invader

Risk is defined with many minor variations in the biological literature. Common to most definitions are the following elements: the probability of a future event; and the consequences of the event, usually with respect to some predefined human value. Risk analysis includes elements of risk assessment (quantification of risk), uncertainty (of the event and its consequences), risk management (reducing risk to an acceptable level), and development of policy to balance finite resources with uncertainty and risk tolerance. When biological invasion and its risk are jointly examined, it is common that the consequences of invasion are not explicitly quantified, but understood to be sufficiently negative that it must be minimized to the extent possible. Risk analysis then becomes quantification of the probabilities of an introduction (event) and that the introduction leads to establishment, and the uncertainty of those probabilities. I describe a risk analysis framework for the Asian gypsy moth—a known invader—in its pathway. The framework uses the available information regarding the transportation route of the vector (ships), and a phenology model that estimates vector contamination (propagule size), the probability of introduction, and the probability of initial establishment given an introduction. Reducing propagule pressure is arguably the most important factor in reducing biological invasion; propagule pressure can be reduced by inspection and sanitation of the pathway vector (e.g., ships, trucks, humans) at the point(s) of departure and at the point of entry. I demonstrate how the risk analysis framework can be used to more efficiently target incoming ships for inspection and propagule pressure reduction.     

Relative Invasion Risk for Plankton across Marine and Freshwater Systems: Examining Efficacy of Proposed International Ballast Water Discharge Standards

Understanding the implications of different management strategies is necessary to identify best conservation trajectories for ecosystems exposed to anthropogenic stressors. For example, science-based risk assessments at large scales are needed to understand efficacy of different vector management approaches aimed at preventing biological invasions associated with commercial shipping. We conducted a landscape-scale analysis to examine the relative invasion risk of ballast water discharges among different shipping pathways (e.g., Transoceanic, Coastal or Domestic), ecosystems (e.g., freshwater, brackish and marine), and timescales (annual and per discharge event) under current and future management regimes. The arrival and survival potential of nonindigenous species (NIS) was estimated based on directional shipping networks and their associated propagule pressure, environmental similarity between donor-recipient ecosystems (based on salinity and temperature), and effects of current and future management strategies (i.e., ballast water exchange and treatment to meet proposed international biological discharge standards). Our findings show that current requirements for ballast water exchange effectively reduce invasion risk to freshwater ecosystems but are less protective of marine ecosystems because of greater environmental mismatch between source (oceanic) and recipient (freshwater) ecoregions. Future requirements for ballast water treatment are expected to reduce risk of zooplankton NIS introductions across ecosystem types but are expected to be less effective in reducing risk of phytoplankton NIS. This large-scale risk assessment across heterogeneous ecosystems represents a major step towards understanding the likelihood of invasion in relation to shipping networks, the relative efficacy of different invasion management regimes and seizing opportunities to reduce the ecological and economic implications of biological invasions.     

Predicting the spread of invasive species in an uncertain world: accommodating multiple vectors and gaps in temporal and spatial data for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bythotrephes longimanus</Emphasis>

Real-world uncertainties and data limitations make it difficult to predict how, when and where non-indigenous species (NIS) will spread. Typically only a small fraction of sites are sampled during only a few time intervals, such that we know neither the full spatial extent nor the true temporal progress of invasion. Yet, these unsampled locations might affect the invasion dynamics. We extend propagule pressure models to incorporate both human-mediated and natural fluvial dispersal vectors, and develop techniques to incorporate missing spatial and temporal data on invasions. We apply our model to Bythotrephes longimanus, a high-risk aquatic NIS, using a regional-scale 311-lake survey in a popular watershed in Ontario and extending our analysis to 1,300 unsampled lakes. Of 100 model runs with different random subsets of 50 sampled lakes reserved for validation, we were able to obtain an average area under the curve value of 0.89. Human-mediated dispersal accounted for 99.75% of the contribution of propagules to probability of establishment. Although the discovery rate is accelerating, our results suggest the annual rate of lake invasions is decelerating over time. Management efforts controlling recreational boating traffic out of the largest lakes in the system will be the most effective way of slowing the spread of B. longimanus in lakes within this system.     

Effect of propagule pressure on the establishment and spread of the little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata in a Gabonese oilfield

We studied the effect of propagule pressure on the establishment and subsequent spread of the invasive little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata in a Gabonese oilfield in lowland rain forest. Oil well drilling, the major anthropogenic disturbance over the past 21 years in the area, was used as an indirect measure of propagule pressure. An analysis of 82 potential introductions at oil production platforms revealed that the probability of successful establishment significantly increased with the number of drilling events. Specifically, the shape of the dose–response establishment curve could be closely approximated by a Poisson process with a 34% chance of infestation per well drilled. Consistent with our knowledge of largely clonal reproduction by W. auropunctata , the shape of the establishment curve suggested that the ants were not substantially affected by Allee effects, probably greatly contributing to this species' success as an invader. By contrast, the extent to which W. auropunctata spread beyond the point of initial introduction, and thus the extent of its damage to diversity of other ant species, was independent of propagule pressure. These results suggest that while establishment success depends on propagule pressure, other ecological or genetic factors may limit the extent of further spread. Knowledge of the shape of the dose–response establishment curve should prove useful in modelling the future spread of W. auropunctata and perhaps the spread of other clonal organisms.     

Parsing propagule pressure: Number,not size,of introductions drives colonization success in a novel environment

Predicting whether individuals will colonize a novel habitat is of fundamental ecological interest and is crucial to conservation efforts. A consistently supported predictor of colonization success is the number of individuals introduced, also called propagule pressure. Propagule pressure increases with the number of introductions and the number of individuals per introduction (the size of the introduction), but it is unresolved which process is a stronger driver of colonization success. Furthermore, their relative importance may depend upon the environment, with multiple introductions potentially enhancing colonization of fluctuating environments. To evaluate the relative importance of the number and size of introductions and its dependence upon environmental variability, we paired demographic simulations with a microcosm experiment. Using Tribolium flour beetles as a model system, we introduced a fixed number of individuals into replicated novel habitats of stable or fluctuating quality, varying the number of introductions through time and size of each introduction. We evaluated establishment probability and the size of extant populations through seven generations. We found that establishment probability generally increased with more, smaller introductions, but was not affected by biologically realistic fluctuations in environmental quality. Population size was not significantly affected by environmental variability in the simulations, but populations in the microcosms grew larger in a stable environment, especially with more introduction events. In general, the microcosm experiment yielded higher establishment probability and larger populations than the demographic simulations. We suggest that genetic mechanisms likely underlie these differences and thus deserve more attention in efforts to parse propagule pressure. Our results highlight the importance of preventing further introductions of undesirable species to invaded sites and suggest conservation efforts should focus on increasing the number of introductions or reintroductions of desirable species rather than increasing the size of those introduction events into harsh environments.     

Strength in size not numbers: propagule size more important than number in sexually reproducing populations

Propagule pressure has consistently been identified as a primary factor in invader success, and reducing it can be one of the most effective methods for preventing the establishment of non-native species. However, when policy is implemented to reduce propagule pressure it almost exclusively focuses on the size of individual introduction events (‘propagule size’), with little confirmation that controlling this single aspect of propagule pressure is the most effective strategy. The number of introduction events (‘propagule number’) can play as much, or more, of a role in invader success, yet only a small portion of propagule pressure research has studied the relative importance of size and number. We investigated the relative roles of propagule size and number in the establishment of a sexually reproducing species using a field mesocosm experiment that introduced Hemimysis anomala (a non-native mysid) across a range of propagule sizes and numbers. We found that single, large introductions had higher abundances and probabilities of survival than smaller, more frequent additions. This experiment illustrated that, for sexual reproducers, focusing on lowering propagule size can be the most effective method for reducing non-native establishment.     

Environmental Variability and Ontogenetic Niche Shifts in Exotic Plants May Govern Reinvasion Pressure in Restorations of Invaded Ecosystems

When restoring ecosystems dominated by exotic plants, reinvasion pressure, or the rate of new exotic recruitment following mature exotic removal, can vary broadly between similarly invaded habitats. Reinvasion pressure strongly influences restoration costs and outcomes but is difficult to predict. Ontogenetic niche shifts (ONSs, changes in niche breadth or position during development) in exotic species paired with interannual variation in abiotic conditions may decouple pre‐removal mature exotic density and average reinvasion pressure. Identifying such decouplings could improve restoration efficiency by informing site selection and management strategies, but requires estimates of average reinvasion pressure that mandate greater understanding of its principle drivers. We hypothesize that reinvasion pressure is predominantly driven by exotic propagule abundance and spatiotemporal availability of realized recruitment windows, which are periods of variable duration that permit exotic establishment from propagules. Realized recruitment windows are based on the “safe sites” concept but account for ONSs and are determined by abiotic conditions and interspecific interactions with recipient communities. Biotic resistance or facilitation may increase or decrease times required for establishment by influencing exotic growth rates or altering niche availability and may permit or preclude establishment in marginal abiotic conditions. We discuss factors influencing reinvasion pressure, basic approaches to estimate reinvasion pressure, and potential ways to increase management efficiency under different reinvasion pressure scenarios. Accurate estimates of reinvasion pressure could improve restoration efficacy, efficiency, and predictability in ecosystems dominated by exotic plants. We argue that greater theoretical and practical considerations of reinvasion pressure and ONSs are merited.     

Prediction and error in multi‐stage models for spread of aquatic non‐indigenous species

Aim Predictions of spread of non‐indigenous species allow for greater efficiency in managing invasions by targeting areas for preventative measures. The invasion sequence is a useful concept in predictions of spread, as it allows us to test hypotheses about the transport and establishment of propagules in novel habitats. Our aims are twofold: (1) to develop and validate multi‐stage invasion models for the introduced fishhook waterflea, Cercopagis pengoi, and (2) to assess how variability in the transport patterns of the propagules influences the accuracy and spatial extent for predictions of spread. Location New York State, USA. Methods We developed a two‐stage model for the spread of C. pengoi. First, we developed a stochastic gravity model for dispersal based on surveys of recreational boat traffic in New York State as a proxy for propagule pressure. We then modelled the probability of establishment based on predicted levels of propagule pressure and measures of lakes’ physicochemistry. In addition, we used Monte Carlo simulations based on the gravity model to propagate variability in boater traffic through the establishment model to assess how uncertainty in dispersal influenced predictions of spread. Results The amount recreationalists were willing to spend, lake area and population size of the city nearest to the destination lake were significant factors affecting boater traffic. In turn, boater traffic, lake area, specific conductance and turbidity were significant predictors of establishment. The inclusion of stochastic dispersal reduced the rate of false positives (i.e. incorrect prediction of an invasion) in detecting invasions at the upper 95% prediction interval for the probability of establishment. Main conclusions Combinations of measures of propagule pressure, habitat suitability and stochastic dispersal allow for the most accurate predictions of spread. Further, multi‐stage spread models may overestimate the extent of spread if stochasticity in early stages of the models is not considered.     

How propagule size and environmental suitability jointly determine establishment success: a test using dung beetle introductions

Both the size of founding populations (propagule size) and environmental suitability are known to influence whether a species newly introduced to a location will establish a self-sustaining population. However, these two factors do not operate independently: it is the interaction between propagule size and environmental suitability that determines the probability an introduced population will establish. Here I use the example of dung beetle introductions to Australia to illustrate the importance of this interaction. I first describe equations that model establishment success jointly as a function of propagule size and environmental suitability. I then show how these equations provide insight into the different outcomes observed in two dung beetle species widely introduced to Australia. In one species, variation in propagule size had relatively little influence on establishment success due to large variation in environmental suitability, leading to an essentially bimodal outcome: sites were either very suitable for establishment and introductions succeeded, or sites were unsuitable and introductions failed regardless of propagule size. For the second species, there was much less variation among locations in environmental suitability, leading to propagule size having a strong influence on establishment success. These examples highlight how the interplay between environmental suitability and founding population size is central to determining the probability an introduced species will establish.     

Allee Effects, Propagule Pressure and the Probability of Establishment: Risk Analysis for Biological Invasions

Colonization is of longstanding interest in theoretical ecology and biogeography, and in the management of weeds and other invasive species, including insect pests and emerging infectious diseases. Due to accelerating invasion rates and widespread economic costs and environmental damages caused by invasive species, colonization theory has lately become a matter of considerable interest. Here we review the concept of propagule pressure to inquire if colonization theory might provide quantitative tools for risk assessment of biological invasions. By formalizing the concept of propagule pressure in terms of stochastic differential equation models of population growth, we seek a synthesis of invasion biology and theoretical population biology. We focus on two components of propagule pressure that affect the chance of invasion: (1) the number of individuals initially introduced, and (2) the rate of subsequent immigration. We also examine how Allee effects, which are expected to be common in newly introduced populations, may inhibit establishment of introduced propagules. We find that the establishment curve (i.e., the chance of invasion as a function of initial population size), can take a variety of shapes depending on immigration rate, carrying capacity, and the severity of Allee effects. Additionally, Allee effects can cause the stationary distribution of population sizes to be bimodal, which we suggest is a possible explanation for time lags commonly observed between the detection of an introduced population and widespread invasion of the landscape.     

Migratory strategies of waterbirds shape the continental‐scale dispersal of aquatic organisms

Long distance dispersal (LDD) of propagules is an important determinant of population dynamics, community structuring and biodiversity distribution at landscape, and sometimes continental, scale. Although migratory animals are potential LDD vectors, migratory movement data have never been integrated in estimates of propagule dispersal distances and LDD probability. Here we integrated migratory movement data of two waterbird species (mallard and teal) over two continents (Europe and North America) and gut retention time of different propagules to build a simple mechanistic model of passive dispersal of aquatic plants and zooplankton. Distance and frequency of migratory movements differed both between waterbird species and continents, which in turn resulted in changes in the shapes of propagule dispersal curves. Dispersal distances and the frequency of LDD events (generated by migratory movements) were mainly determined by the disperser species and, to a lesser extent, by the continent. The gut retention time of propagules also exerted a significant effect, which was mediated by the propagule characteristics (e.g. seeds were dispersed farther than Artemia cysts). All estimated dispersal curves were skewed towards local‐scale dispersal and, although dispersal distances were lower than previous estimates based only on the vector flight speed, had fat tails produced by LDD events that ranged from 230 to 1209 km. Our results suggest that propagule dispersal curves are determined by the migratory strategy of the disperser species, the region (or flyway) through which the disperser population moves, and the propagule characteristics. Waterbirds in particular may frequently link wetlands separated by hundreds of kilometres, contributing to the maintenance of biodiversity and, given the large geographic scale of the dispersal events, to the readjustment of species distributions in the face of climate change.     

Propagule pressure and the establishment of emergent polyploid populations

BackgroundWhereas the incidence or rate of polyploid speciation in flowering plants is modest, the production of polyploid individuals within local populations is widespread. Explanations for this disparity primarily have focused on properties or interactions of polyploids that limit their persistence.HypothesisThe emergence of local polyploid populations within diploid populations is similar to the arrival of invasive species at new, suitable sites, with the exception that polyploids suffer interference from their progenitor(s). The most consistent predictor of successful colonization by invasive plants is propagule pressure, i.e. the number of seeds introduced. Therefore, insufficient propagule pressure, i.e. the formation of polyploid seeds within diploid populations, ostensibly is a prime factor limiting the establishment of newly emergent polyploids within local populations. Increasing propagule number reduces the effects of genetic, environmental and demographic stochasticity, which thwart population survival. As with invasive species, insufficient seed production within polyploid populations limits seed export, and thus reduces the chance of polyploid expansion.ConclusionThe extent to which propagule pressure limits the establishment of local polyploid populations remains to be determined, because we know so little. The numbers of auto- or allopolyploid seed in diploid populations rarely have been ascertained, as have the numbers of newly emergent polyploid plants within diploid populations. Moreover, seed production by these polyploids has yet to be assessed.     

A population model for predicting the successful establishment of introduced bird species

One of the strongest generalities in invasion biology is the positive relationship between probability of establishment and the numbers of individuals introduced. Nevertheless, a number of significant questions remain regarding: (1) the relative importance of different processes during introduction (e.g., demographic, environmental, and genetic stochasticity, and Allee effects); (2) the relative effects of propagule pressure (e.g., number of introductions, size of introductions, and lag between introductions); and (3) different life history characteristics of the species themselves. Here, we adopt an individual-based simulation modeling approach to explore a range of such details in the relationship between establishment success and numbers of individuals introduced. Our models are developed for typical exotic bird introductions, for which the relationship between probability of establishment and the numbers of individuals introduced has been particularly well documented. For both short-lived and long-lived species, probability of establishment decreased across multiple introductions (compared with a single introduction of the same total size), and this decrease was greater when inbreeding depression was included. Sensitivity analyses revealed four predictors that together accounted for >95 % of model performance. Of these, R ₀ (the average number of daughters produced per female over her lifetime) and propagule pressure were of primary importance, while random environmental effects and inbreeding depression exerted lesser influence. Initial founder size is undoubtedly going to be important for ensuring the persistence of introduced populations. However, we found the demographic traits, which influence how introduced individuals behave, to have the greatest effect on establishment success.     

Janzen–Connell effects partially supported in reef-building corals: adult presence interacts with settler density to limit establishment

In many plant and sessile marine invertebrate (SMI) taxa, population and community dynamics are heavily influenced by processes occurring during the dispersal and establishment phases. The Janzen–Connell (J–C) hypothesis predicts increased survival of early life stages with decreasing conspecific density and increased distance from conspecific adults. Evidence of J–C effects in maintaining diversity is common in plant communities, but its importance in SMI communities remains unclear. Under controlled aquarium conditions, we examined the effect of density-dependence and adult conspecific water treatments (absent/present) on propagule settlement success and settler post-settlement survival, along with associated spatial patterns, for six broadcast-spawning, reef-building coral species from three families. We also tested if settlement success was linked to increasing propagule species diversity for three coral species from two families. We found that the probability of settlement was density independent and not influenced by adult present water treatments. Yet, adult present water treatments and settler density did have a synergistic negative effect on the probability of short-term settler survival for all species examined. Settlers also showed greater spatial aggregation as their numbers increased, but were less aggregated in adult present water treatments compared to those in adult absent water treatments. We further show evidence of significant species interactions among propagules, as settlement in single-species trials was four-fold higher compared to mixed-species trials. Our findings from controlled experimental arenas indicate that the early establishment of corals was predominantly limited by density-dependent settler–adult interactions among conspecifics and propagule–propagule interactions among heterospecifics. Thus, the proximity to established conspecific adults, settler density and species diversity of propagules are relevant drivers of local coral community diversity and structure. Based on these outcomes, we suggest that the J–C hypothesis, with demonstrated importance for plants, is partially upheld for reef corals.     

Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: It is time for dispersal experiments

The experimental study of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem function has mainly addressed the effect of species and number of functional groups. In theory, this approach has mainly focused on how extinction affects function, whereas dispersal limitation of ecosystem function has been rarely discussed. A handful of seed introduction experiments, as well as numerous observations of the effects of long‐distance dispersal of alien species, indicate that ecosystem function may be strongly determined by dispersal limitation at the local, regional and/or global scales. We suggest that it is time to replace biodiversity manipulation experiments, based on random draw of species, with those addressing realistic scenarios of either extinction or dispersal. Experiments disentangling the dispersal limitation of ecosystem function should have to take into account the probability of arrival. The latter is defined as the probability that a propagule of a particular species will arrive at a particular community. Arrival probability depends on the dispersal ability and the number of propagules of a species, the distance a species needs to travel, and the permeability of the matrix landscape. Current databases, in particular those in northwestern and central Europe now enable robust estimation of arrival probability in plant communities. We suggest a general hypothesis claiming that dispersal limitation according to arrival probability will have ecosystem‐level effects different from those arising due to random arrival. This hypothesis may be rendered more region‐, landscape‐ or ecosystem‐specific by estimating arrival probabilities for different background conditions.     

Propagule pressure and native community connectivity interact to influence invasion success in metacommunities

Mechanistic insights from invasion biology indicate that propagule pressure of exotic species and native community structure can independently influence establishment success. The role of native community connectivity via species dispersal and its potential interaction with propagule pressure on invasion success in metacommunities, however, remains unknown. Native community connectivity may increase biotic resistance to invasion by enhancing species richness and evenness, but the effects could depend upon the level of propagule pressure. In this study, a mesocosm experiment was used to evaluate the independent and combined effects of exotic propagule pressure and native community connectivity on invasion success. The effects of three levels of exotic Daphnia lumholtzi propagule pressure on establishment success, community structure and ecosystem attributes were evaluated in native zooplankton communities connected by species dispersal versus unconnected communities, and relative to a control without native species. Establishment of the exotic species exhibited a propagule dose‐dependent relationship with high levels of propagule pressure resulting in the greatest establishment success. Native community connectivity, however, effectively reduced establishment at the low level of propagule pressure and further augmented native species richness across propagule pressure treatments. Propagule pressure largely determined the negative impacts of the exotic species on native species richness, native biomass and edible producer biomass. The results highlight that native community connectivity can reduce invasion success at a low propagule dose and decrease extinction risk of native competitors, but high propagule pressure can overcome connectivity‐mediated biotic resistance to influence establishment and impact of the exotic species. Together, the results emphasize the importance of the interaction of propagule pressure and community connectivity as a regulator of invasion success, and argue for the maintenance of metacommunity connectivity to confer invasion resistance.