Population dynamics, life stage and ecological modeling in Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

In this study we investigated the population dynamics of Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) with laboratory experiments, employing survival analysis and stage structure mathematical models, emphasizing survival among life stages. The study also assessed the theoretical influence of density dependence and cannibalism during immature stages, on the population dynamics of the species. The survival curves were similar, indicating that populations of C. albiceps exhibit the same pattern of survival among life stages. A strong nonlinear trend was observed, suggesting density dependence, acting during the first life stages of C. albiceps. The time-series simulations produced chaotic oscillations for all life stages, and the cannibalism did not produce qualitative changes in the dynamic behavior. The bifurcation analysis shows that for low values for survival, the population reaches a stable equilibrium, but the cannibalism results in chaotic oscillations practically over all the parametric space. The implications of the patterns of dynamic behavior observed are discussed.     

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.     

Modeling the population dynamics of annual plants with seed bank and density dependent effects

A model is proposed for the population dynamics of an annual plant (Sesbania vesicaria) with a seed bank (i.e. in which a proportion of seeds remain dormant for at least one year). A simple linear matrix model is deduced from the life cycle graph. The dominant eigenvalue of the projection matrix is estimated from demographic parameters derived from field studies. The estimated values for population growth rate () indicates that the study population should be experiencing a rapid exponential increase, but this was not the case in our population.The addition of density dependent effects on seedling survivorship and adult fecundity, effects for which field studies provide evidence, considerably improves our model. Depending on the demographic parameters, the model leads to stable equilibrium, oscillations, or chaos. Study of the behaviour of this model in the parameter space shows that the existence of a seed bank allows higher among-year variation of adult fecundity, without leaving the region of demographic stability. Field data obtained over 3 years confirm this prediction.     

Under what conditions do climate‐driven sex ratios enhance versus diminish population persistence?

For many species of reptile, crucial demographic parameters such as embryonic survival and individual sex (male or female) depend on ambient temperature during incubation. While much has been made of the role of climate on offspring sex ratios in species with temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD), the impact of variable sex ratio on populations is likely to depend on how limiting male numbers are to female fecundity in female‐biased populations, and whether a climatic effect on embryonic survival overwhelms or interacts with sex ratio. To examine the sensitivity of populations to these interacting factors, we developed a generalized model to explore the effects of embryonic survival, hatchling sex ratio, and the interaction between these, on population size and persistence while varying the levels of male limitation. Populations with TSD reached a greater maximum number of females compared to populations with GSD, although this was often associated with a narrower range of persistence. When survival depended on temperature, TSD populations persisted over a greater range of temperatures than GSD populations. This benefit of TSD was greatly reduced by even modest male limitation, indicating very strong importance of this largely unmeasured biologic factor. Finally, when males were not limiting, a steep relationship between sex ratio and temperature favoured population persistence across a wider range of climates compared to the shallower relationships. The opposite was true when males were limiting – shallow relationships between sex ratio and temperature allowed greater persistence. The results highlight that, if we are to predict the response of populations with TSD to climate change, it is imperative to 1) accurately quantify the extent to which male abundance limits female fecundity, and 2) measure how sex ratios and peak survival coincide over climate.     

Models of growth with density regulation in more than one life stage

Discrete-time models of growth of populations with nonoverlapping generations and density regulation in two life stages are studied. It is assumed that there is no delay in the effects of density. Assigning exponential, linear, or hyperbolic functions to describe the dependence of preadult survival and fecundity on density, nine models are obtained. The dynamics of the model resulting from using the exponential function to describe the density dependence of both preadult survival and fecundity is analyzed: for large values of the intrinsic rate of increase there may exist up to three equilibrium population sizes, two stable. This indicates that a life history with two episodes of density regulation can give origin to alternative stable states. The models are fitted to recruitment data from growth experiments of Drosophila laboratory populations obtained with the Serial Transfer System Type 2 (Ayala et al., 1973. Theor. Pop. Biol. 4, 331-356) and collected by other authors. The results of the fittings suggest that this recruitment data can be adequately described with the models.     

随机配对种群的两性模型的动力学性态

基于Kendall-Goodman模型，提出了一个两性具有不同生理性态的随机配对的两性模型．如果不考虑密度制约因素，那么模型存在一个全局渐近稳定的指数解；如果考虑密度制约因素，对于给定的一个出生函数，得到了唯一正平衡态存在及全局稳定的充要条件．结论表明，无论是否考虑密度制约因素，种群的性比总是稳定的．     

Extinction in relation to demographic and environmental stochasticity in age-structured models

The demographic variance of an age-structured population is defined. This parameter is further split into components generated by demographic stochasticity in each vital rate. The applicability of these parameters are investigated by checking how an age-structured population process can be approximated by a diffusion with only three parameters. These are the deterministic growth rate computed from the expected projection matrix and the environmental and demographic variances. We also consider age-structured populations where the fecundity at any stage is either zero or one, and there is neither environmental stochasticity nor dependence between individual fecundity and survival. In this case the demographic variance is uniquely determined by the vital rates defining the projection matrix. The demographic variance for a long-lived bird species, the wandering albatross in the southwestern part of the Indian Ocean, is estimated. We also compute estimates of the age-specific contributions to the total demographic variance from survival, fecundity and the covariance between survival and fecundity.     

Fecundity, body size and population dynamics of Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819) (Diptera: Calliphoridae).

In this study, the seasonal variation of fecundity, wing and tibia length were investigated in natural populations of Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819) in an attempt to determine the changes in life history of the species as a function of seasonality. A relative constant temporal trajectory was found for fecundity, wing and tibia length over twenty-four months. Positive correlations between fecundity and wing size, fecundity and tibia size and wing and tibia sizes were observed. The implications of these results for population dynamics of C. albiceps are discussed.     

Stochastic dynamics in exotic and native blowflies: an analysis combining laboratory experiments and a two-patch metapopulation model

In this study we explored the stochastic population dynamics of three exotic blowfly species, Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, and two native species, Cochliomyia macellaria and Lucilia eximia, by combining a density-dependent growth model with a two-patch metapopulation model. Stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were investigated by permitting random variations between predetermined demographic boundary values based on experimental data. Lucilia eximia and Chrysomya albiceps were the species most susceptible to the risk of local extinction. Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria exhibited lower risks of extinction when compared to the other species. The simultaneous analysis of stochastic fecundity and survival revealed an increase in the extinction risk for all species. When stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were simulated together, the coupled populations were synchronized in the five species. These results are discussed, emphasizing biological invasion and interspecific interaction dynamics.     

Density-dependent parameters and demographic equilibrium in open populations

Populations near their equilibrium are expected to show density-dependence through a negative feedback on at least one demographic parameter, e.g. survival and/or productivity. Nevertheless, it is not always clear which vital rate is affected the most, and even less whether this dependence holds in open populations in which immigration and emigration are also important. We assessed the relative importance of population density in the variation of local survival, recruitment, proportion of transients (emigrants) and productivity through the analysis of detailed life-histories of 4286  seabirds from a colony that reached an apparent demographic equilibrium after a period of exponential increase. We provide evidence that the role of population density and resource availability changes according to the demographic parameter considered. Estimates indicated that transients increased from 5% to 20% over the study period, suggesting an average turnover of about 1400 individuals per year. The parameters most influenced by population density alone were local survival and probability of transience. Recruitment was negatively associated with population density during the increasing phase but unexpected high values were also recorded at high population levels. These high values were explained by a combination of population size and food availability. Mean productivity varied with food availability, independently from population variations. The population density alone explained up to a third of the yearly variation of the vital rates considered, suggesting that open populations are equally influenced by stochastic and density-independent events (such as environmental perturbations) than by intrinsic (i.e. density-dependent) factors.     

The effect of temperature on life history parameters of Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae)

The effect of four constant temperatures (21, 26, 31 and 36°C) on biological (survival and duration of developmental stages, fecundity and longevity of females and sex ratio) and demographic parameters (R0, G, rm and ) of Tetranychus evansi was studied in the laboratory under controlled conditions: 75 ± 10% RH and 12L : 12D. The lower thermal threshold was 10.3°C. The shortest developmental time (6.3 days) was obtained at 36°C. Maximum fecundity was recorded at 31°C with 123.3 eggs per female. The highest intrinsic rate of increase (rm) (0.355) was obtained at 31°C. The optimal temperature for population growth seems to be 34°C. © Rapid Science Ltd. 1998     

Life span correlates with population dynamics in perennial herbaceous plants

Survival and fecundity are basic components of demography and therefore have a strong influence on population dynamics. These two key parameters and their relationship are crucial to understand the evolution of life histories. It remains, however, to be empirically established how life span, fecundity, and population dynamics are linked in different organism groups. We conducted a comparative study based on demographic data sets of 55 populations of 23 perennial herbs for which structured demographic models and among-year natural variation in demographic attributes were available. Life span (from 4 to 128 yr old), estimated by using an algorithm, was inversely correlated with the deviance of the population growth rate from equilibrium as well as with among-year population fluctuations. Temporal variability was greater for short-lived species than for the long-lived ones because fecundity was more variable than survival and relatively more important for population dynamics for the short-lived species. The relationship between life span and population stability suggests that selection for longevity may have played an important role in the life history evolution of plants because of its ability to buffer temporal fluctuations in population size.     

Population dynamics of Lucilia eximia (Dipt., Calliphoridae)

Abstract:  The theoretical dynamics of experimental populations of Lucilia eximia was investigated as an attempt to understand its population biology. Specifically the population dynamics of L. eximia was analysed by means of a mathematical model that incorporates fecundity and survival as density-dependent demographic parameters in discrete time. The sensitivity of these parameters to changes in the magnitude was also investigated. The mathematical model applied to experimental populations of L. eximia predicts a theoretical one-point equilibrium for immatures. The population dynamics of L. eximia is compared to the dynamics of Chrysomya species and Cochliomyia macellaria.     

Demography and dynamics of three wild horse populations in the Australian Alps

Wild horses (Equus caballus) are a non‐native species occupying over 2800 km² of the nationally significant Australian Alps National Parks. We estimated key demographic parameters (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival and annual finite population growth rate) over 3 years and related these to horse body condition and available food for three populations under natural conditions, and found a trend consistent with food limitation. The populations were independent, with different site characteristics and occupied areas, identified by land managers, as areas of concern about possible conservation impacts. Annual fecundity and juvenile survival varied across sites averaging between 0.21 and 0.31 female young per adult female, and 0.83 and 0.90 per annum, respectively, and annual adult survival was consistent across sites averaging 0.91 per annum. One population was increasing (λ = 1.09 year^?1; 95% CI 1.04–1.14) and two populations were stable (λ ～ 1.0 year^?1). Mean body condition of horses was positively correlated with mean pasture biomass rank. Across the three populations, fecundity, recruitment, body condition and annual finite population growth rate were lowest when mean pasture biomass rank was lowest and conversely highest when pasture rank was highest. We conclude that food limitation appears to be operating across these three sites. We used our results to assess the sensitivity of annual finite rate of increase (λ) to changes in key demographic parameters and found that λ was most sensitive to a change in adult survival, with the second most sensitive parameter being fecundity. Thus, if the aim of management is to reduce the size of the wild horse population then targeting adult survival is most important, followed by fecundity. Finally, we estimated the linear, negative, numerical response for wild horses between annual λ and horses per unit pasture biomass.     

Mating,births, and transitions: a flexible two-sex matrix model for evolutionary demography

Models of sexually-reproducing populations that consider only a single sex cannot capture the effects of sex-specific demographic differences and mate availability. We present a new framework for two-sex demographic models that implements and extends the birth-matrix mating-rule approach of Pollak. The model is a continuous-time matrix model that explicitly includes the processes of mating (which is nonlinear but homogeneous), offspring production, and demographic transitions and survival. The resulting nonlinear model converges to exponential growth with an equilibrium population composition. The model can incorporate age- or stage-structured life histories and flexible mating functions. As an example, we apply the model to analyze the effects of mating strategies (polygamy or monogamy, and mated unions composed of males and females, of variable duration) on the response to sex-biased harvesting. The combination of demographic complexity with the interaction of the sexes can have major population dynamic effects and can change the outcome of evolution on sex-related characters.     

The maintenance of gynodioecy and androdioecy in angiosperms

Algebraic models of gynodioecy show that the effects on the equilibrium sex ratio of the relative survival and seed production of the sexes and of inbreeding of male-fertile plants are identical for all genic modes of inheritance, provided that different genotypes among male-fertile plants (or among females) do not differ in average fitness. The effects of three modes of inbreeding on equilibrium sex ratios are examined. If there is competition between self- and cross-fertilization of male-fertile individuals, a stable sexual dimorphism can be maintained by an outbreeding advantage of females if both the proportion of cross-fertilized seeds among those borne on male-fertile individuals,t, and the inbreeding depression (fitness inbred/outbred seeds),i, are less than one half. A lower frequency of females is obtained for the same values oft andi if self-fertilization precedes cross-fertilization. If self-fertilization follows cross-fertilization, gynodioecy cannot be maintained by an outbreeding advantage of females. When the sex phenotypes of gynodioecious populations are determined by cytoplasmic inheritance, females need only a slight advantage over males in survival, ovule production or outbreeding to persist at equilibrium. When determined by nuclear genes, androdioecy can be maintained by greater fecundity or a higher survival rate of males than of female-fertile plants, but not by an outbreeding advantage. Androdioecy cannot be maintained with cytoplasmic inheritance of sex. The models suggest explanations for the more frequent occurrence of gynodioecy than of andrdioecy, the high frequency of gynodioecy in Hawaii and New Zealand, and the origin of gynodioecy from hermaphrodite but not from monoecious ancestors.     

Sex Ratio Adjustment in a Seasonally Breeding Primate Species: Evidence from the Barbary Macaque Population at Affenberg Salem

Presented are data on secondary sex ratio in a large population of semifree-ranging Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus) at Affenberg Salem. Examined were 569 births in five social groups with regard to demographic parameters, maternal age and rank. Significant differences were found between the secondary sex ratios of high ranking and low ranking females. A higher proportion of male offspring was born in the high ranking class, while both groups did not differ in fecundity rates. A detailed analysis of the reproductive cycles of 73 females showed a significant shorter interval between the end of conceptional estrus and birth in male infants and also a significantly earlier onset of deturgescence of anogenital swelling when males were conceived. These results strongly suggest that the differences in the secondary sex ratio are not due to differential abortions but rather to pre-conceptional control of sex via timing of mating in relation to ovulation.     

Fuzzy subset approach in coupled population dynamics of blowflies

This paper is a study on the population dynamics of blowflies employing a density-dependent, non-linear mathematical model and a coupled population formalism. In this study, we investigated the coupled population dynamics applying fuzzy subsets to model the population trajectory, analyzing demographic parameters such as fecundity, survival, and migration. The main results suggest different possibilities in terms of dynamic behavior produced by migration in coupled populations between distinct environments and the rescue effect generated by the connection between populations. It was possible to conclude that environmental heterogeneity can play an important role in blowfly metapopulation systems. The implications of these results for population dynamics of blowflies are discussed.     

The role of recombination and selection in the modifier theory of sex-ratio distortion

The equilibrium configurations for a two-locus multialle model of sex-linked meiotic drive are studied with regard to the recombination fraction:limit cycles can occur in the case of small recombination while stable equilibrium points associated with linkage equilibrium can exist for an intermediate range of recombination values depending on the equilibrium sex ratio, linkage disequilibrium at nearby equilibrium points taking turn with loser linkage. The evolutionary dynamics in two-locus sex-ratio distortion systems is enlightened: while equilibria with a sex ratio closer to 1/2 are more likely to be stable with respect to perturbations on the frequencies of sex-ratio distorters that are represented at equilibrium, such equilibria are also more vulnerable to the invasion of mutant distorters when there is some degree of linkage with the sex-determining locus. For X-linked multimodifier systems of sex-ratio distortion, differential fertilities and viabilities are incorporated and a maximum principle is suggested.