Adding time-calibrated branch lengths to the Asteraceae supertree

New inference techniques,such as supertrees,have improved the construction of large phylogenies,helping to reveal the tree of life.In addition,these large phylogenies have enhanced the study of other evolutionary questions,such as whether traits have evolved in a neutral or adaptive way,or what factors have influenced diversification.However,supertrees usually lack branch lengths,which are necessary for all these issues to be investigated.Here,divergence times within the largest family of flowering plants,namely the Asteraceae,are reviewed to estimate time-calibrated branch lengths in the supertree of this lineage.An inconsistency between estimated dates of basal branching events and the earliest asteraceous fossil pollen record was detected.In addition,the impact of different methods of branch length assignment on the total number of transitions between states in the reconstruction of sexual system evolution in Asteraceae was investigated.At least for this dataset,different branch length assignation approaches influenced maximum likelihood(ML)reconstructions only and not Bayesian ones.Therefore,the selection of different branch length information is not arbitrary and should be carefully assessed,at least when ML approaches are being used.The reviewed divergence times and the estimated time-calibrated branch lengths provide a useful tool for future phylogenetic comparative and macroevolutionary studies of Asteraceae.     

Directional biases in phylogenetic structure quantification: a Mediterranean case study

Recent years have seen an increasing effort to incorporate phylogenetic hypotheses to the study of community assembly processes. The incorporation of such evolutionary information has been eased by the emergence of specialized software for the automatic estimation of partially resolved supertrees based on published phylogenies. Despite this growing interest in the use of phylogenies in ecological research, very few studies have attempted to quantify the potential biases related to the use of partially resolved phylogenies and to branch length accuracy, and no work has examined how tree shape may affect inference of community phylogenetic metrics. In this study, we tested the influence of phylogenetic resolution and branch length information on the quantification of phylogenetic structure, and also explored the impact of tree shape (stemminess) on the loss of accuracy in phylogenetic structure quantification due to phylogenetic resolution. For this purpose, we used 9 sets of phylogenetic hypotheses of varying resolution and branch lengths to calculate three indices of phylogenetic structure: the mean phylogenetic distance (NRI), the mean nearest taxon distance (NTI) and phylogenetic diversity (stdPD) metrics. The NRI metric was the less sensitive to phylogenetic resolution, stdPD showed an intermediate sensitivity, and NTI was the most sensitive one; NRI was also less sensitive to branch length accuracy than NTI and stdPD, the degree of sensitivity being strongly dependent on the dating method and the sample size. Directional biases were generally towards type II errors. Interestingly, we detected that tree shape influenced the accuracy loss derived from the lack of phylogenetic resolution, particularly for NRI and stdPD. We conclude that well‐resolved molecular phylogenies with accurate branch length information are needed to identify the underlying phylogenetic structure of communities, and also that sensitivity of phylogenetic structure measures to low phylogenetic resolution can strongly vary depending on phylogenetic tree shape.     

Divergence time uncertainty and historical biogeography reconstruction – an example from Urophylleae (Rubiaceae)

Aim When hypotheses of historical biogeography are evaluated, age estimates of individual nodes in a phylogeny often have a direct impact on what explanation is concluded to be most likely. Confidence intervals of estimated divergence times obtained in molecular dating analyses are usually very large, but the uncertainty is rarely incorporated in biogeographical analyses. The aim of this study is to use the group Urophylleae, which has a disjunct pantropical distribution, to explore how the uncertainty in estimated divergence times affects conclusions in biogeographical analysis. Two hypotheses are evaluated: (1) long‐distance dispersal from Africa to Asia and the Neotropics, and (2) a continuous distribution in the boreotropics, probably involving migration across the North Atlantic Land Bridge, followed by isolation in equatorial refugia. Location Tropical and subtropical Asia, tropical Africa, and central and southern tropical America. Methods This study uses parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of chloroplast DNA and nuclear ribosomal DNA data from 56 ingroup species, beast molecular dating and a Bayesian approach to dispersal–vicariance analysis (Bayes‐DIVA) to reconstruct the ancestral area of the group, and the dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis method to test biogeographical hypotheses. Results When the two models of geographic range evolution were compared using the maximum likelihood (ML) tree with mean estimates of divergence times, boreotropical migration was indicated to be much more likely than long‐distance dispersal. Analyses of a large sample of dated phylogenies did, however, show that this result was not consistent. The age estimate of one specific node had a major impact on likelihood values and on which model performed best. The results show that boreotropical migration provides a slightly better explanation of the geographical distribution patterns of extant Urophylleae than long‐distance dispersal. Main conclusions This study shows that results from biogeographical analyses based on single phylogenetic trees, such as a ML or consensus tree, can be misleading, and that it may be very important to take the uncertainty in age estimates into account. Methods that account for the uncertainty in topology, branch lengths and estimated divergence times are not commonly used in biogeographical inference today but should definitely be preferred in order to avoid unwarranted conclusions.     

Phylogeny and divergence of the pinnipeds (Carnivora: Mammalia) assessed using a multigene dataset

Background  

Phylogenetic comparative methods are often improved by complete phylogenies with meaningful branch lengths (e.g., divergence dates). This study presents a dated molecular supertree for all 34 world pinniped species derived from a weighted matrix representation with parsimony (MRP) supertree analysis of 50 gene trees, each determined under a maximum likelihood (ML) framework. Divergence times were determined by mapping the same sequence data (plus two additional genes) on to the supertree topology and calibrating the ML branch lengths against a range of fossil calibrations. We assessed the sensitivity of our supertree topology in two ways: 1) a second supertree with all mtDNA genes combined into a single source tree, and 2) likelihood-based supermatrix analyses. Divergence dates were also calculated using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock with rate autocorrelation to test the sensitivity of our supertree results further.     

Building megaphylogenies for macroecology: taking up the challenge

The last decades have seen an upsurge in ecological studies incorporating phylogenetic information with increasing species samples, motivated by the common conjecture that species with common ancestors should share some ecological characteristics due to niche conservatism. This has been carried out using various methods of increasing complexity and reliability: using only taxonomical classification; constructing supertrees that incorporate only topological information from previously published phylogenies; or building supermatrices of molecular data that are used to estimate phylogenies with evolutionary meaningful branch lengths. Although the latter option is more informative than the others, it remains under‐used in ecology because ecologists are generally unaware of or unfamiliar with modern molecular phylogenetic methods. However, a solid phylogenetic hypothesis is necessary to conduct reliable ecological analysis integrating evolutive aspects. Our aim here is to clarify the concepts and methodological issues associated with the reconstruction of dated megaphylogenies, and to show that it is nowadays possible to obtain accurate and well sampled megaphylogenies with informative branch‐lengths on large species samples. This is possible thanks to improved phylogenetic methods, vast amounts of molecular data available from databases such as Genbank, and consensus knowledge on deep phylogenetic relationships for an increasing number of groups of organisms. Finally, we include a detailed step‐by‐step workflow pipeline (Supplementary material), from data acquisition to phylogenetic inference, mainly based on the R environment (widely used by ecologists) and the use of free web‐servers, that has been applied to the reconstruction of a species‐level phylogeny of all breeding birds of Europe.     

Log Transformation Improves Dating of Phylogenies

Phylogenetic trees inferred from sequence data often have branch lengths measured in the expected number of substitutions and therefore, do not have divergence times estimated. These trees give an incomplete view of evolutionary histories since many applications of phylogenies require time trees. Many methods have been developed to convert the inferred branch lengths from substitution unit to time unit using calibration points, but none is universally accepted as they are challenged in both scalability and accuracy under complex models. Here, we introduce a new method that formulates dating as a nonconvex optimization problem where the variance of log-transformed rate multipliers is minimized across the tree. On simulated and real data, we show that our method, wLogDate, is often more accurate than alternatives and is more robust to various model assumptions.     

Branch length estimation and divergence dating: estimates of error in Bayesian and maximum likelihood frameworks

Background  

Estimates of divergence dates between species improve our understanding of processes ranging from nucleotide substitution to speciation. Such estimates are frequently based on molecular genetic differences between species; therefore, they rely on accurate estimates of the number of such differences (i.e. substitutions per site, measured as branch length on phylogenies). We used simulations to determine the effects of dataset size, branch length heterogeneity, branch depth, and analytical framework on branch length estimation across a range of branch lengths. We then reanalyzed an empirical dataset for plethodontid salamanders to determine how inaccurate branch length estimation can affect estimates of divergence dates.     

Birth-death prior on phylogeny and speed dating

Background  

In recent years there has been a trend of leaving the strict molecular clock in order to infer dating of speciations and other evolutionary events. Explicit modeling of substitution rates and divergence times makes formulation of informative prior distributions for branch lengths possible. Models with birth-death priors on tree branching and auto-correlated or iid substitution rates among lineages have been proposed, enabling simultaneous inference of substitution rates and divergence times. This problem has, however, mainly been analysed in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, an approach requiring computation times of hours or days when applied to large phylogenies.     

Change in community phylogenetic structure during tropical forest succession: evidence from New Guinea

Ecologists have recently interpreted patterns of phylogenetic distance among coexisting species as indicative of processes affecting community assembly during forest succession. We investigated plant community phylogenetic structure along a successional gradient in New Guinean lowland rain forest. We surveyed all trees with diameter at breast height ≥ 5 cm in nineteen 0.25 ha plots representing younger secondary, older secondary, and primary forest. We estimated plant community phylogeny from rbcL gene sequences to quantify change in phylogenetic structure during succession. Mean phylogenetic distance among co‐occurring trees increased with total basal area per plot, a proxy for forest age. Significant phylogenetic clustering was detected in secondary forest whereas primary forest was significantly over‐dispersed relative to null expectations. We examined the sensitivity of these patterns to various methods of branch length estimation and phylogenetic uncertainty. Power to detect community phylogenetic patterns when equal branch lengths were assumed was weak in comparison to direct molecular and time‐calibrated measures of divergence. Inferred change during forest succession was also robust to phylogenetic uncertainty so long as temporal information was incorporated in estimates of divergence. The observed patterns are consistent with processes of environmental filtering during tropical forest succession giving way to other processes in primary forests including density‐dependence.     

Plesiomorphic character states cause systematic errors in molecular phylogenetic analyses: a simulation study

Analysis of sequence data using time‐reversible substitution models and maximum likelihood (ML) algorithms is currently the most popular method to infer phylogenies, despite the fact that results often contradict each other. Searching for sources of error we focus on a hitherto neglected feature of these methods: character polarity is usually thought to be irrelevant in ML analyses. Mechanisms that lead to wrong tree topologies were analysed at the level of split‐supporting site patterns. In simulations, plesiomorphic site patterns can be identified by comparison with known root sequences. These patterns cause some surprising effects: Using data sets generated with simulations of sequence evolution along a variety of topologies and inferring trees using the same (correct) model, we show for cases of branch‐length heterogeneity that (i) as already known, ML analyses can fail to recover the correct tree even when the correct substitution model is used, but also that (ii) plesiomorphic character states cause substantial mistakes and therefore character polarity is relevant, and (iii) accumulating chance similarities on long branches are far less misleading than plesiomorphic states accumulating on shorter branches. The artefacts occur when branch lengths are heterogeneous. The systematic errors disappear for the most part when the sites with symplesiomorphies supporting false clades are deleted from the data set. We conclude that many of the phylogenies published during the past decades may be false due to the neglected effects of symplesiomorphies.     

Integrating fossil preservation biases in the selection of calibrations for molecular divergence time estimation

The selection of fossil data to use as calibration age priors in molecular divergence time estimates inherently links neontological methods with paleontological theory. However, few neontological studies have taken into account the possibility of a taphonomic bias in the fossil record when developing approaches to fossil calibration selection. The Sppil-Rongis effect may bias the first appearance of a lineage toward the recent causing most objective calibration selection approaches to erroneously exclude appropriate calibrations or to incorporate multiple calibrations that are too young to accurately represent the divergence times of target lineages. Using turtles as a case study, we develop a Bayesian extension to the fossil selection approach developed by Marshall (2008. A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibrations points. Am. Nat. 171:726-742) that takes into account this taphonomic bias. Our method has the advantage of identifying calibrations that may bias age estimates to be too recent while incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic parameter estimates such as tree topology and branch lengths. Additionally, this method is easily adapted to assess the consistency of potential calibrations to any one calibration in the candidate pool.     

Computing diversity from dated phylogenies and taxonomic hierarchies: does it make a difference to the conclusions?

Recently, dated phylogenies have been increasingly used for ecological studies on community structure and conservation planning. There is, however, a major impediment to a systematic application of phylogenetic methods in ecology: reliable phylogenies with time-calibrated branch lengths are lacking for a large number of taxonomic groups and this condition is likely to continue for a long time. A solution for this problem consists in using undated phylogenies or taxonomic hierarchies as proxies for dated phylogenies. Nonetheless, little is known on the potential loss of information of these approaches compared to studies using dated phylogenies with time-calibrated branch lengths. The aim of this study is to ask how the use of undated phylogenies and taxonomic hierarchies biases a very simple measure of diversity, the mean pairwise phylogenetic distance between community species, compared to the diversity of dated phylogenies derived from the freely available software Phylomatic. This is illustrated with three sets of data on plant species sampled at different scales. Our results show that: (1) surprisingly, the diversity computed from dated phylogenies derived from Phylomatic is more strongly related to the diversity computed from taxonomic hierarchies than to the diversity computed from undated phylogenies, while (2) less surprisingly, the strength of this relationship increases if we consider only angiosperm species.     

An evaluation of new parsimony‐based versus parametric inference methods in biogeography: a case study using the globally distributed plant family Sapindaceae

Aim Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony‐based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony‐based method, dispersal–vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes‐DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study. Location World‐wide. Methods Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes‐DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years. Results Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes‐DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events – which in Bayes‐DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node. Main conclusions By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes‐DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide‐spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large‐scale biogeographical patterns in plants.     

Investigating the timing of origin and evolutionary processes shaping regional species diversity: Insights from simulated data and neotropical butterfly diversification rates

Different diversification scenarios have been proposed to explain the origin of extant biodiversity. However, most existing meta‐analyses of time‐calibrated phylogenies rely on approaches that do not quantitatively test alternative diversification processes. Here, I highlight the shortcomings of using species divergence ranks, which is a method widely used in meta‐analyses. Divergence ranks consist of categorizing cladogenetic events to certain periods of time, typically to either Pleistocene or to pre‐Pleistocene ages. This approach has been claimed to shed light on the origin of most extant species and the timing and dynamics of diversification in any biogeographical region. However, interpretations drawn from such method often confound two fundamental questions in macroevolutionary studies, tempo (timing of evolutionary rate shifts) and mode (“how” and “why” of speciation). By using simulated phylogenies under four diversification scenarios, constant‐rate, diversity‐dependence, high extinction, and high speciation rates in the Pleistocene, I showed that interpretations based on species divergence ranks might have been seriously misleading. Future meta‐analyses of dated phylogenies need to be aware of the impacts of incomplete taxonomic sampling, tree topology, and divergence time uncertainties, as well as they might be benefited by including quantitative tests of alternative diversification models that acknowledge extinction and diversity dependence.     

Branch Length Heterogeneity Leads to Nonindependent Branch Length Estimates and Can Decrease the Efficiency of Methods of Phylogenetic Inference

Branch length estimates play a central role in maximum-likelihood (ML) and minimum-evolution (ME) methods of phylogenetic inference. For various reasons, branch length estimates are not statistically independent under ML or ME. We studied the response of correlations among branch length estimates to the degree of among-branch length heterogeneity (BLH) in the model (true) tree. The frequency and magnitude of (especially negative) correlations among branch length estimates were both shown to increase as BLH increases under simulation and analytically. For ML, we used the correct model (Jukes–Cantor). For ME, we employed ordinary least-squares (OLS) branch lengths estimated under both simple p-distances and Jukes–Cantor distances, analyzed with and without an among-site rate heterogeneity parameter. The efficiency of ME and ML was also shown to decrease in response to increased BLH. We note that the shape of the true tree will in part determine BLH and represents a critical factor in the probability of recovering the correct topology. An important finding suggests that researchers cannot expect that different branches that were in fact the same length will have the same probability of being accurately reconstructed when BLH exists in the overall tree. We conclude that methods designed to minimize the interdependencies of branch length estimates (BLEs) may (1) reduce both the variance and the covariance associated with the estimates and (2) increase the efficiency of model-based optimality criteria. We speculate on possible ways to reduce the nonindependence of BLEs under OLS and ML. Received: 9 March 1999 / Accepted: 4 May 1999     

The ancestral distance test: what relatedness can reveal about correlated evolution in large lineages with missing character data and incomplete phylogenies

The ancestral distance test is introduced to detect correlated evolution between two binary traits in large phylogenies that may lack resolved subclades, branch lengths, and/or comparative data. We define the ancestral distance as the time separating a randomly sampled taxon from its most recent ancestor (MRA) with extant descendants that have an independent trait. The sampled taxon either has (target sample) or lacks (nontarget sample) a dependent trait. Modeled as a Markov process, we show that the distribution of ancestral distances for the target sample is identical to that of the nontarget sample when characters are uncorrelated, whereas ancestral distances are smaller on average for the target sample when characters are correlated. Simulations suggest that the ancestral distance can be estimated using the time, total branch length, taxonomic rank, or number of speciation events between a sampled taxon and the MRA. These results are shown to be robust to deviations from Markov assumptions. A Monte Carlo technique estimates P-values when fully resolved phylogenies with branch lengths are available, and we evaluate the Monte Carlo approach using a data set with known correlation. Measures of relatedness were found to provide a robust means to test hypotheses of correlated character evolution.     

Mega-phylogeny approach for comparative biology: an alternative to supertree and supermatrix approaches

Background  

Biology has increasingly recognized the necessity to build and utilize larger phylogenies to address broad evolutionary questions. Large phylogenies have facilitated the discovery of differential rates of molecular evolution between trees and herbs. They have helped us understand the diversification patterns of mammals as well as the patterns of seed evolution. In addition to these broad evolutionary questions there is increasing awareness of the importance of large phylogenies for addressing conservation issues such as biodiversity hotspots and response to global change. Two major classes of methods have been employed to accomplish the large tree-building task: supertrees and supermatrices. Although these methods are continually being developed, they have yet to be made fully accessible to comparative biologists making extremely large trees rare.     

Relative efficiencies of the maximum-likelihood, neighbor-joining, and maximum-parsimony methods when substitution rate varies with site

The relative efficiencies of the maximum-likelihood (ML), neighbor- joining (NJ), and maximum-parsimony (MP) methods in obtaining the correct topology and in estimating the branch lengths for the case of four DNA sequences were studied by computer simulation, under the assumption either that there is variation in substitution rate among different nucleotide sites or that there is no variation. For the NJ method, several different distance measures (Jukes-Cantor, Kimura two- parameter, and gamma distances) were used, whereas for the ML method three different transition/transversion ratios (R) were used. For the MP method, both the standard unweighted parsimony and the dynamically weighted parsimony methods were used. The results obtained are as follows: (1) When the R value is high, dynamically weighted parsimony is more efficient than unweighted parsimony in obtaining the correct topology. (2) However, both weighted and unweighted parsimony methods are generally less efficient than the NJ and ML methods even in the case where the MP method gives a consistent tree. (3) When all the assumptions of the ML method are satisfied, this method is slightly more efficient than the NJ method. However, when the assumptions are not satisfied, the NJ method with gamma distances is slightly better in obtaining the correct topology than is the ML method. In general, the two methods show more or less the same performance. The NJ method may give a correct topology even when the distance measures used are not unbiased estimators of nucleotide substitutions. (4) Branch length estimates of a tree with the correct topology are affected more easily than topology by violation of the assumptions of the mathematical model used, for both the ML and the NJ methods. Under certain conditions, branch lengths are seriously overestimated or underestimated. The MP method often gives serious underestimates for certain branches. (5) Distance measures that generate the correct topology, with high probability, do not necessarily give good estimates of branch lengths. (6) The likelihood-ratio test and the confidence-limit test, in Felsenstein's DNAML, for examining the statistical of branch length estimates are quite sensitive to violation of the assumptions and are generally too liberal to be used for actual data. Rzhetsky and Nei's branch length test is less sensitive to violation of the assumptions than is Felsenstein's test. (7) When the extent of sequence divergence is < or = 5% and when > or = 1,000 nucleotides are used, all three methods show essentially the same efficiency in obtaining the correct topology and in estimating branch lengths.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)      

A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibration points

A central challenge facing the temporal calibration of molecular phylogenies is finding a quantitative method for estimating maximum age constraints on lineage divergence times. Here, I provide such a method. This method requires an ultrametric tree generated without reference to the fossil record. Exploiting the fact that the relative branch lengths on the ultrametric tree are proportional to time, this method identifies the lineage with the greatest proportion of its true temporal range covered by the fossil record. The oldest fossil of this calibration lineage is used as the minimum age constraint. The maximum age constraint is obtained by adding a confidence interval onto the end point of the calibration lineage, thus making it possible to bracket the true divergence times of all lineages on the tree. The approach can also identify fossils that have been grossly misdated or misassigned to the phylogeny. The method assumes that the relative branch lengths on the ultrametric tree are accurate and that fossilization is random. The effect of violations of these assumptions is assessed. This method is simple to use and is illustrated with a reanalysis of Near et al.'s turtle data.