Infield greenhouse gas emissions from sugarcane soils in Brazil: effects from synthetic and organic fertilizer application and crop trash accumulation

Bioethanol from sugarcane is becoming an increasingly important alternative energy source worldwide as it is considered to be both economically and environmentally sustainable. Besides being produced from a tropical perennial grass with high photosynthetic efficiency, sugarcane ethanol is commonly associated with low N fertilizer use because sugarcane from Brazil, the world's largest sugarcane producer, has a low N demand. In recent years, several models have predicted that the use of sugarcane ethanol in replacement to fossil fuel could lead to high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings. However, empirical data that can be used to validate model predictions and estimates from indirect methodologies are scarce, especially with regard to emissions associated with different fertilization methods and agricultural management practices commonly used in sugarcane agriculture in Brazil. In this study, we provide in situ data on emissions of three GHG (CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄) from sugarcane soils in Brazil and assess how they vary with fertilization methods and management practices. We measured emissions during the two main phases of the sugarcane crop cycle (plant and ratoon cane), which include different fertilization methods and field conditions. Our results show that N₂O and CO₂ emissions in plant cane varied significantly depending on the fertilization method and that waste products from ethanol production used as organic fertilizers with mineral fertilizer, as it is the common practice in Brazil, increase emission rates significantly. Cumulatively, the highest emissions were observed for ratoon cane treated with vinasse (liquid waste from ethanol production) especially as the amount of crop trash on the soil surface increased. Emissions of CO₂ and N₂O were 6.9 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 and 7.5 kg ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively, totaling about 3000 kg in CO₂ equivalent ha^?1 yr^?1.     

Negative emissions from stopping deforestation and forest degradation,globally

Forest growth provides negative emissions of carbon that could help keep the earth's surface temperature from exceeding 2°C, but the global potential is uncertain. Here we use land‐use information from the FAO and a bookkeeping model to calculate the potential negative emissions that would result from allowing secondary forests to recover. We find the current gross carbon sink in forests recovering from harvests and abandoned agriculture to be ?4.4 PgC/year, globally. The sink represents the potential for negative emissions if positive emissions from deforestation and wood harvest were eliminated. However, the sink is largely offset by emissions from wood products built up over the last century. Accounting for these committed emissions, we estimate that stopping deforestation and allowing secondary forests to grow would yield cumulative negative emissions between 2016 and 2100 of about 120 PgC, globally. Extending the lifetimes of wood products could potentially remove another 10 PgC from the atmosphere, for a total of approximately 130 PgC, or about 13 years of fossil fuel use at today's rate. As an upper limit, the estimate is conservative. It is based largely on past and current practices. But if greater negative emissions are to be realized, they will require an expansion of forest area, greater efficiencies in converting harvested wood to long‐lasting products and sources of energy, and novel approaches for sequestering carbon in soils. That is, they will require current management practices to change.     

Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is considered one of the most cost-effective strategies for mitigating climate change. However, historical deforestation and emission rates―critical inputs for setting reference emission levels for REDD+―are poorly understood. Here we use multi-source, time-series satellite data to quantify carbon emissions from deforestation in the Amazon basin on a year-to-year basis between 2000 and 2010. We first derive annual deforestation indicators by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF) product. MODIS indicators are calibrated by using a large sample of Landsat data to generate accurate deforestation rates, which are subsequently combined with a spatially explicit biomass dataset to calculate committed annual carbon emissions. Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr⁻¹ and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr⁻¹ respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha⁻¹, ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha⁻¹). Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha⁻¹•yr⁻¹ from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such efforts.     

Direct N2O emission factors for synthetic N‐fertilizer and organic residues applied on sugarcane for bioethanol production in Central‐Southern Brazil

The production and use of biofuels have increased rapidly in recent decades. Bioethanol derived from sugarcane has become a promising alternative to fossil fuel for use in automotive vehicles. The ‘savings’ calculated from the carbon footprint of this energy source still generates many questions related to nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from sugarcane cultivation. We quantified N₂O emissions from soil covered with different amounts of sugarcane straw and determined the direct N₂O emission factors of nitrogen fertilizers (applied at the planting furrows and in the topdressing) and the by‐products of sugarcane processing (filter cake and vinasse) applied to sugarcane fields. The results showed that the presence of different amounts of sugarcane straw did not change N₂O emissions relative to bare soil (control). N‐fertilizer increased N₂O emissions from the soil, especially when urea was used, both at the planting furrow (plant cane) and during the regrowth process (ratoon cane) in relation to ammonium nitrate. The emission factor for N‐fertilizer was 0.46 ± 0.33%. The field application of filter cake and vinasse favored N₂O emissions from the soil, the emission factor for vinasse was 0.65 ± 0.29%, while filter cake had a lower emission factor of 0.13 ± 0.04%. The experimentally obtained N₂O emission factors associated with sugarcane cultivation, specific to the major sugarcane production region of the Brazil, were lower than those considered by the IPCC. Thus, the results of this study should contribute to bioethanol carbon footprint calculations.     

Perspective of the Sugarcane Industry in Brazil

The sugarcane industry in Brazil is experiencing a rapid shift towards creating the grounds for a green and sustainable biorefinary industry. After 30 years of ProAlcool, the federal government program that boosted Brazil’s sugarcane industry by creating a mandate to blend ethanol with gasoline, flex fuel engines now dominate Brazil’s automobile industry. Currently, bioethanol replaces around 30% of the gasoline consumed in the country and its demand is projected to more that double in the next 10 years. On another front, the sugarcane genomics program created by FAPESP in the late 1990s paved the way for the establishment of innovative biotechnology startup companies that attracted the attention of the largest agro-biotechnology sector companies of the world. Almost all of these companies now have their sugarcane research centers surrounding the city of Campinas, São Paulo. In addition, innovative synthetic biology companies are developing technologies to produce diesel, jet fuel and other high value molecules using sugarcane juice as a carbon source. The sugarcane industry also teamed with petrochemical companies and already established operating plants to produce bioplastics. Innovations have also occurred in the field of co-generation of electricity from sugarcane bagasse. Currently sugarcane supplies 4% of the electricity needs of the country. Collectively, these innovations suggest that Brazil’s sugarcane industry could supply over 30% of the country energy needs by 2021 and a significant fraction of new bioproducts produced by its nascent biorefinary plants.     

Carbon Pools and Emissions from Deforestation in Extra-Tropical Forests of Northern Argentina Between 1900 and 2005

We estimated carbon pools and emissions from deforestation in northern Argentine forests between 1900 and 2005, based on forest inventories, deforestation estimates from satellite images and historical data on forests and agriculture. Carbon fluxes were calculated using a book-keeping model. We ran 1000 simulations for a 105-year period with different combinations of values of carbon stocks (Mg C ha⁻¹), soil carbon in the top 0.2 m, and annual deforestation series. The 1000 combinations of parameters were performed as a sensitivity analysis that for each run, randomly selected the values of each variable within a predefined range of values and probability distributions. Using the simulation outputs, we calculated the accumulated C emissions due to deforestation from 1900 to 2005 and the annual emission as the average of the 1000 simulations, and uncertainties of our estimates as the standard deviation. We found that northern Argentine forests contain an estimated 4.54 Pg C (2.312 Pg C in biomass and 2.233 Pg C in soil). Between 1900 and 2005 approximately 30% of the forests were deforested, yielding carbon emissions of 0.945 (SD = 0.270) Pg C. Estimated average annual carbon emissions between 1996 and 2005, mostly from deforestation of the Chaco dry forests, were 20,875 (SD = 6,156) Gg C y⁻¹ (1 Gg = 10⁻⁶ Pg). These values represent the largest source of carbon from land-cover change in the extra-tropical southern hemisphere, between 0.9 and 2.7% of the global carbon emissions from deforestation, and approximately 10% of carbon emissions from the Brazilian Amazon. Deforestation, which has accelerated during the last decades as a result of modern agriculture expansion, represents a major national source of greenhouse gases and the second emission source, after fossil fuel consumption by fixed sources. We conclude that Argentine forests are an important carbon pool and emission source that need more attention for accurate global estimates, and seasonally dry forest deforestation is a key component of the Argentine carbon cycle. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Lifecycle assessment of fuel ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil

Background, aim, and scope

This paper presents the lifecycle assessment (LCA) of fuel ethanol, as 100% of the vehicle fuel, from sugarcane in Brazil. The functional unit is 10,000 km run in an urban area by a car with a 1,600-cm³ engine running on fuel hydrated ethanol, and the resulting reference flow is 1,000 kg of ethanol. The product system includes agricultural and industrial activities, distribution, cogeneration of electricity and steam, ethanol use during car driving, and industrial by-products recycling to irrigate sugarcane fields. The use of sugarcane by the ethanol agribusiness is one of the foremost financial resources for the economy of the Brazilian rural area, which occupies extensive areas and provides far-reaching potentials for renewable fuel production. But, there are environmental impacts during the fuel ethanol lifecycle, which this paper intents to analyze, including addressing the main activities responsible for such impacts and indicating some suggestions to minimize the impacts.

Materials and methods

This study is classified as an applied quantitative research, and the technical procedure to achieve the exploratory goal is based on bibliographic revision, documental research, primary data collection, and study cases at sugarcane farms and fuel ethanol industries in the northeast of São Paulo State, Brazil. The methodological structure for this LCA study is in agreement with the International Standardization Organization, and the method used is the Environmental Design of Industrial Products. The lifecycle impact assessment (LCIA) covers the following emission-related impact categories: global warming, ozone formation, acidification, nutrient enrichment, ecotoxicity, and human toxicity.

Results and discussion

The results of the fuel ethanol LCI demonstrate that even though alcohol is considered a renewable fuel because it comes from biomass (sugarcane), it uses a high quantity and diversity of nonrenewable resources over its lifecycle. The input of renewable resources is also high mainly because of the water consumption in the industrial phases, due to the sugarcane washing process. During the lifecycle of alcohol, there is a surplus of electric energy due to the cogeneration activity. Another focus point is the quantity of emissions to the atmosphere and the diversity of the substances emitted. Harvesting is the unit process that contributes most to global warming. For photochemical ozone formation, harvesting is also the activity with the strongest contributions due to the burning in harvesting and the emissions from using diesel fuel. The acidification impact potential is mostly due to the NOx emitted by the combustion of ethanol during use, on account of the sulfuric acid use in the industrial process and because of the NOx emitted by the burning in harvesting. The main consequence of the intensive use of fertilizers to the field is the high nutrient enrichment impact potential associated with this activity. The main contributions to the ecotoxicity impact potential come from chemical applications during crop growth. The activity that presents the highest impact potential for human toxicity (HT) via air and via soil is harvesting. Via water, HT potential is high in harvesting due to lubricant use on the machines. The normalization results indicate that nutrient enrichment, acidification, and human toxicity via air and via water are the most significant impact potentials for the lifecycle of fuel ethanol.

Conclusions

The fuel ethanol lifecycle contributes negatively to all the impact potentials analyzed: global warming, ozone formation, acidification, nutrient enrichment, ecotoxicity, and human toxicity. Concerning energy consumption, it consumes less energy than its own production largely because of the electricity cogeneration system, but this process is highly dependent on water. The main causes for the biggest impact potential indicated by the normalization is the nutrient application, the burning in harvesting and the use of diesel fuel.

Recommendations and perspectives

The recommendations for the ethanol lifecycle are: harvesting the sugarcane without burning; more environmentally benign agricultural practices; renewable fuel rather than diesel; not washing sugarcane and implementing water recycling systems during the industrial processing; and improving the system of gases emissions control during the use of ethanol in cars, mainly for NOx. Other studies on the fuel ethanol from sugarcane may analyze in more details the social aspects, the biodiversity, and the land use impact.     

Environmental change and the carbon balance of Amazonian forests

Extreme climatic events and land‐use change are known to influence strongly the current carbon cycle of Amazonia, and have the potential to cause significant global climate impacts. This review intends to evaluate the effects of both climate and anthropogenic perturbations on the carbon balance of the Brazilian Amazon and to understand how they interact with each other. By analysing the outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4) model ensemble, we demonstrate that Amazonian temperatures and water stress are both likely to increase over the 21st Century. Curbing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 62% in 2010 relative to the 1990s mean decreased the Brazilian Amazon's deforestation contribution to global land use carbon emissions from 17% in the 1990s and early 2000s to 9% by 2010. Carbon sources in Amazonia are likely to be dominated by climatic impacts allied with forest fires (48.3% relative contribution) during extreme droughts. The current net carbon sink (net biome productivity, NBP) of +0.16 (ranging from +0.11 to +0.21) Pg C year^?1 in the Brazilian Amazon, equivalent to 13.3% of global carbon emissions from land‐use change for 2008, can be negated or reversed during drought years [NBP = ?0.06 (?0.31 to +0.01) Pg C year^?1]. Therefore, reducing forest fires, in addition to reducing deforestation, would be an important measure for minimizing future emissions. Conversely, doubling the current area of secondary forests and avoiding additional removal of primary forests would help the Amazonian gross forest sink to offset approximately 42% of global land‐use change emissions. We conclude that a few strategic environmental policy measures are likely to strengthen the Amazonian net carbon sink with global implications. Moreover, these actions could increase the resilience of the net carbon sink to future increases in drought frequency.     

Maximum impacts of future reforestation or deforestation on atmospheric CO2

There is scope for land‐use changes to increase or decrease CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere over the next century. Here we make simple but robust calculations of the maximum impact of such changes. Historical land‐use changes (mostly deforestation) and fossil fuel emissions have caused an increase in atmospheric concentration of CO₂ of 90 ppm between the pre‐industrial era and year 2000. The projected range of CO₂ concentrations in 2100, under a range of emissions scenarios developed for the IPCC, is 170–600 ppm above 2000 levels. This range is mostly due to different assumptions regarding fossil fuel emissions. If all of the carbon so far released by land‐use changes could be restored to the terrestrial biosphere, atmospheric CO₂ concentration at the end of the century would be about 40–70 ppm less than it would be if no such intervention had occurred. Conversely, complete global deforestation over the same time frame would increase atmospheric concentrations by about 130–290 ppm. These are extreme assumptions; the maximum feasible reforestation and afforestation activities over the next 50 years would result in a reduction in CO₂ concentration of about 15–30 ppm by the end of the century. Thus the time course of fossil fuel emissions will be the major factor in determining atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for the foreseeable future.     

Urban ecosystems and the North American carbon cycle

Approximately 75–80% of the population of North America currently lives in urban areas as defined by national census bureaus, and urbanization is continuing to increase. Future trajectories of fossil fuel emissions are associated with a high degree of uncertainty; however, if the activities of urban residents and the rate of urban land conversion can be captured in urban systems models, plausible emissions scenarios from major cities may be generated. Integrated land use and transportation models that simulate energy use and traffic‐related emissions are already in place in many North American cities. To these can be added a growing dataset of carbon gains and losses in vegetation and soils following urbanization, and a number of methods of validating urban carbon balance modeling, including top down atmospheric monitoring and urban ‘metabolic’ studies of whole ecosystem mass and energy flow. Here, we review the state of our understanding of urban areas as whole ecosystems with regard to carbon balance, including both drivers of fossil fuel emissions and carbon cycling in urban plants and soils. Interdisciplinary, whole‐ecosystem studies of the socioeconomic and biophysical factors that influence urban carbon cycles in a range of cities may greatly contribute to improving scenarios of future carbon balance at both continental and global scales.     

Potential for carbon sequestration in European soils: preliminary estimates for five scenarios using results from long-term experiments

One of the main options for carbon mitigation identified by the IPCC is the sequestration of carbon in soils. In this paper we use statistical relationships derived from European long-term experiments to explore the potential for carbon sequestration in soils in the European Union. We examine five scenarios, namely (a) the amendment of arable soils with animal manure, (b) the amendment of arable soils with sewage sludge, (c) the incorporation of cereal straw into the soils in which it was grown, (d) the afforestation of surplus arable land through natural woodland regeneration, and (e) extensification of agriculture through ley-arable farming. Our calculations suggest only limited potential to increase soil carbon stocks over the next century by addition of animal manure, sewage sludge or straw (Þbl 15 Tg C y^–1), but greater potential through extensification of agriculture (≈ 40 Tg C y^–1) or through the afforestation of surplus arable land (≈ 50 Tg C y^–1). We estimate that extensification could increase the total soil carbon stock of the European Union by 17%. Afforestation of 30% of present arable land would increase soil carbon stocks by about 8% over a century and would substitute up to 30 Tg C y^–1 of fossil fuel carbon if the wood were used as biofuel. However, even the afforestation scenario, with the greatest potential for carbon mitigation, can sequester only 0.8% of annual global anthropogenic CO₂-carbon. Our figures suggest that, although efforts in temperate agriculture can contribute to global carbon mitigation, the potential is small compared to that available through reducing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions by halting tropical and sub-tropical deforestation or by reducing fossil fuel burning.     

Bioethanol production from sugarcane and emissions of greenhouse gases – known and unknowns

Bioethanol production from sugarcane is discussed as an alternative energy source to reduce dependencies of regional economies on fossil fuels. Even though bioethanol production from sugarcane is considered to be a beneficial and cost‐effective greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy, it is still a matter of controversy due to insufficient information on the total GHG balance of this system. Aside from the necessity to account for the impact of land use change (LUC), soil N₂O emissions during sugarcane production and emissions of GHG due to preharvest burning may significantly impact the GHG balance. Based on a thorough literature review, we show that direct N₂O emissions from sugarcane fields due to nitrogen (N) fertilization result in an emission factor of 3.87±1.16% which is much higher than suggested by IPCC (1%). N₂O emissions from N fertilization accounted for 40% of the total GHG emissions from ethanol–sugarcane production, with an additional 17% from trash burning. If LUC‐related GHG emissions are considered, the total GHG balance turns negative mainly due to vegetation carbon losses. Our study also shows that major gaps in knowledge still exist about GHG sources related to agricultural management during sugarcane production, e.g. effects of irrigation, vinasse and filter cake application. Therefore, more studies are needed to assess if bioethanol from sugarcane is a viable option to reduce energy‐related GHG emissions.     

Maize cellulosic biofuels: soil carbon loss can be a hidden cost of residue removal

Second generation biofuels, like cellulosic ethanol, have potential as important energy sources that can lower fossil fuel carbon emissions without affecting global food commodity prices. Agricultural crop residues, especially maize, have been proposed for use as biofuel, but the net greenhouse warming effect of the gained fossil fuel carbon offset needs to account for any ecosystem carbon losses caused by the large‐scale maize residue removal. Using differential ¹³C isotopic ratios between residue and soil in an incubation experiment, we found that removal of residue increased soil organic matter decomposition by an average of 16%, or 540–800 kg carbon ha^?1. Thus, removal of residue for biofuel production can have a hidden carbon cost, reducing potential greenhouse gas benefits. Accurate net carbon accounting of cellulosic biofuel needs to include not only fossil fuel savings from use of the residue, but also any declines in soil carbon caused directly and indirectly by residue removal.     

Declining Amazon biomass due to deforestation and subsequent degradation losses exceeding gains

In the Amazon, deforestation and climate change lead to increased vulnerability to forest degradation, threatening its existing carbon stocks and its capacity as a carbon sink. We use satellite L-Band Vegetation Optical Depth (L-VOD) data that provide an integrated (top-down) estimate of biomass carbon to track changes over 2011–2019. Because the spatial resolution of L-VOD is coarse (0.25°), it allows limited attribution of the observed changes. We therefore combined high-resolution annual maps of forest cover and disturbances with biomass maps to model carbon losses (bottom-up) from deforestation and degradation, and gains from regrowing secondary forests. We show an increase of deforestation and associated degradation losses since 2012 which greatly outweigh secondary forest gains. Degradation accounted for 40% of gross losses. After an increase in 2011, old-growth forests show a net loss of above-ground carbon between 2012 and 2019. The sum of component carbon fluxes in our model is consistent with the total biomass change from L-VOD of 1.3 Pg C over 2012-2019. Across nine Amazon countries, we found that while Brazil contains the majority of biomass stocks (64%), its losses from disturbances were disproportionately high (79% of gross losses). Our multi-source analysis provides a pessimistic assessment of the Amazon carbon balance and highlights the urgent need to stop the recent rise of deforestation and degradation, particularly in the Brazilian Amazon.     

Life cycle assessment of bio-based ethanol produced from different agricultural feedstocks

Purpose

Bio-based products are often considered sustainable due to their renewable nature. However, the environmental performance of products needs to be assessed considering a life cycle perspective to get a complete picture of potential benefits and trade-offs. We present a life cycle assessment of the global commodity ethanol, produced from different feedstock and geographical origin. The aim is to understand the main drivers for environmental impacts in the production of bio-based ethanol as well as its relative performance compared to a fossil-based alternative.

Methods

Ethanol production is assessed from cradle to gate; furthermore, end-of-life emissions are also included in order to allow a full comparison of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, assuming degradation of ethanol once emitted to air from household and personal care products. The functional unit is 1 kg ethanol, produced from maize grain in USA, maize stover in USA, sugarcane in North-East of Brazil and Centre-South of Brazil, and sugar beet and wheat in France. As a reference, ethanol produced from fossil ethylene in Western Europe is used. Six impact categories from the ReCiPe assessment method are considered, along with seven novel impact categories on biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES).

Results and discussion

GHG emissions per kilogram bio-based ethanol range from 0.7 to 1.5 kg CO₂ eq per kg ethanol and from 1.3 to 2 kg per kg if emissions at end-of-life are included. Fossil-based ethanol involves GHG emissions of 1.3 kg CO₂ eq per kg from cradle-to-gate and 3.7 kg CO₂ eq per kg if end-of-life is included. Maize stover in USA and sugar beet in France have the lowest impact from a GHG perspective, although when other impact categories are considered trade-offs are encountered. BES impact indicators show a clear preference for fossil-based ethanol. The sensitivity analyses showed how certain methodological choices (allocation rules, land use change accounting, land use biomes), as well as some scenario choices (sugarcane harvest method, maize drying) affect the environmental performance of bio-based ethanol. Also, the uncertainty assessment showed that results for the bio-based alternatives often overlap, making it difficult to tell whether they are significantly different.

Conclusions

Bio-based ethanol appears as a preferable option from a GHG perspective, but when other impacts are considered, especially those related to land use, fossil-based ethanol is preferable. A key methodological aspect that remains to be harmonised is the quantification of land use change, which has an outstanding influence in the results, especially on GHG emissions.     

Modeling the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of deforestation‐driven carbon emissions: the INPE‐EM framework applied to the Brazilian Amazon

We present a generic spatially explicit modeling framework to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation (INPE‐EM). The framework incorporates the temporal dynamics related to the deforestation process and accounts for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity of the region under study. We build an emission model for the Brazilian Amazon combining annual maps of new clearings, four maps of biomass, and a set of alternative parameters based on the recent literature. The most important results are as follows: (a) Using different biomass maps leads to large differences in estimates of emission; for the entire region of the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade, emission estimates of primary forest deforestation range from 0.21 to 0.26 Pg C yr^?1. (b) Secondary vegetation growth presents a small impact on emission balance because of the short duration of secondary vegetation. In average, the balance is only 5% smaller than the primary forest deforestation emissions. (c) Deforestation rates decreased significantly in the Brazilian Amazon in recent years, from 27 Mkm² in 2004 to 7 Mkm² in 2010. INPE‐EM process‐based estimates reflect this decrease even though the agricultural frontier is moving to areas of higher biomass. The decrease is slower than a non‐process instantaneous model would estimate as it considers residual emissions (slash, wood products, and secondary vegetation). The average balance, considering all biomass, decreases from 0.28 in 2004 to 0.15 Pg C yr^?1 in 2009; the non‐process model estimates a decrease from 0.33 to 0.10 Pg C yr^?1. We conclude that the INPE‐EM is a powerful tool for representing deforestation‐driven carbon emissions. Biomass estimates are still the largest source of uncertainty in the effective use of this type of model for informing mechanisms such as REDD+. The results also indicate that efforts to reduce emissions should focus not only on controlling primary forest deforestation but also on creating incentives for the restoration of secondary forests.     

Satellite‐based estimates reveal widespread forest degradation in the Amazon

Anthropogenic and natural forest disturbance cause ecological damage and carbon emissions. Forest disturbance in the Amazon occurs in the form of deforestation (conversion of forest to non‐forest land covers), degradation from the extraction of forest resources, and destruction from natural events. The crucial role of the Amazon rainforest in the hydrologic cycle has even led to the speculation of a disturbance “tipping point” leading to a collapse of the tropical ecosystem. Here we use time series analysis of Landsat data to map deforestation, degradation, and natural disturbance in the Amazon Ecoregion from 1995 to 2017. The map was used to stratify the study area for selection of sample units that were assigned reference labels based on their land cover and disturbance history. An unbiased statistical estimator was applied to the sample of reference observations to obtain estimates of area and uncertainty at biennial time intervals. We show that degradation and natural disturbance, largely during periods of severe drought, have affected as much of the forest area in the Amazon Ecoregion as deforestation from 1995 to 2017. Consequently, an estimated 17% (1,036,800 ± 24,800 km², 95% confidence interval) of the original forest area has been disturbed as of 2017. Our results suggest that the area of disturbed forest in the Amazon is 44%–60% more than previously realized, indicating an unaccounted for source of carbon emissions and pervasive damage to forest ecosystems.     

Comparative LCA of ethanol versus gasoline in Brazil using different LCIA methods

Purpose

The main objective of this study is to expand the discussion about how, and to what extent, the environmental performance is affected by the use of different life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) illustrated by the case study of the comparison between environmental impacts of gasoline and ethanol form sugarcane in Brazil.

Methods

The following LCIA methods have been considered in the evaluation: CML 2001, Impact 2002+, EDIP 2003, Eco-indicator 99, TRACI 2, ReCiPe, and Ecological Scarcity 2006. Energy allocation was used to split the environmental burdens between ethanol and surplus electricity generated at the sugarcane mill. The phases of feedstock and (bio)fuel production, distribution, and use are included in system boundaries.

Results and discussion

At the midpoint level, comparison of different LCIA methods showed that ethanol presents lower impacts than gasoline in important categories such as global warming, fossil depletion, and ozone layer depletion. However, ethanol presents higher impacts in acidification, eutrophication, photochemical oxidation, and agricultural land use categories. Regarding to single-score indicators, ethanol presented better performance than gasoline using ReCiPe Endpoint LCIA method. Using IMPACT 2002+, Eco-indicator 99, and Ecological Scarcity 2006, higher scores are verified for ethanol, mainly due to the impacts related to particulate emissions and land use impacts.

Conclusions

Although there is a relative agreement on the results regarding equivalent environmental impact categories using different LCIA methods at midpoint level, when single-score indicators are considered, use of different LCIA methods lead to different conclusions. Single-score results also limit the interpretability at endpoint level, as a consequence of small contributions of relevant environmental impact categories weighted in a single-score indicator.     

Energy and emission benefits of alternative transportation liquid fuels derived from switchgrass: a fuel life cycle assessment

We conducted a mobility chains, or well-to-wheels (WTW), analysis to assess the energy and emission benefits of cellulosic biomass for the U.S. transportation sector in the years 2015-2030. We estimated the life-cycle energy consumption and emissions associated with biofuel production and use in light-duty vehicle (LDV) technologies by using the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model. Analysis of biofuel production was based on ASPEN Plus model simulation of an advanced fermentation process to produce fuel ethanol/protein, a thermochemical process to produce Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) and dimethyl ether (DME), and a combined heat and power plant to co-produce steam and electricity. Our study revealed that cellulosic biofuels as E85 (mixture of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline by volume), FTD, and DME offer substantial savings in petroleum (66-93%) and fossil energy (65-88%) consumption on a per-mile basis. Decreased fossil fuel use translates to 82-87% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all unblended cellulosic biofuels. In urban areas, our study shows net reductions for almost all criteria pollutants, with the exception of carbon monoxide (unchanged), for each of the biofuel production option examined. Conventional and hybrid electric vehicles, when fueled with E85, could reduce total sulfur oxide (SO(x)) emissions to 39-43% of those generated by vehicles fueled with gasoline. By using bio-FTD and bio-DME in place of diesel, SO(x) emissions are reduced to 46-58% of those generated by diesel-fueled vehicles. Six different fuel production options were compared. This study strongly suggests that integrated heat and power co-generation by means of gas turbine combined cycle is a crucial factor in the energy savings and emission reductions.     

Estimating 20‐year land‐use change and derived CO2 emissions associated with crops,pasture and forestry in Brazil and each of its 27 states

Land‐use change (LUC) in Brazil has important implications on global climate change, ecosystem services and biodiversity, and agricultural expansion plays a critical role in this process. Concerns over these issues have led to the need for estimating the magnitude and impacts associated with that, which are increasingly reported in the environmental assessment of products. Currently, there is an extensive debate on which methods are more appropriate for estimating LUC and related emissions and regionalized estimates are lacking for Brazil, which is a world leader in agricultural production (e.g. food, fibres and bioenergy). We developed a method for estimating scenarios of past 20‐year LUC and derived CO₂ emission rates associated with 64 crops, pasture and forestry in Brazil as whole and in each of its 27 states, based on time‐series statistics and in accordance with most used carbon‐footprinting standards. The scenarios adopted provide a range between minimum and maximum rates of CO₂ emissions from LUC according to different possibilities of land‐use transitions, which can have large impacts in the results. Specificities of Brazil, like multiple cropping and highly heterogeneous carbon stocks, are also addressed. The highest CO₂ emission rates are observed in the Amazon biome states and crops with the highest rates are those that have undergone expansion in this region. Some states and crops showing large agricultural areas have low emissions associated, especially in southern and eastern Brazil. Native carbon stocks and time of agricultural expansion are the most decisive factors to the patterns of emissions. Some implications on LUC estimation methods and standards and on agri‐environmental policies are discussed.