Long‐term change within a Neotropical forest: assessing differential functional and floristic responses to disturbance and drought

Disentangling the relative roles of biotic and abiotic forces influencing forest structure, function, and local community composition continues to be an important goal in ecology. Here, utilizing two forest surveys 20‐year apart from a Central American dry tropical forest, we assess the relative role of past disturbance and local climatic change in the form of increased drought in driving forest dynamics. We observe: (i) a net decrease in the number of trees; (ii) a decrease in total forest biomass by 7.7 Mg ha^?1 but when calculated on subquadrat basis the biomass per unit area did not change indicating scale sensitivity of forest biomass measures; (iii) that the decrease in the number of stems occurred mainly in the smallest sizes, and in more moist and evergreen habitats; (iv) that there has been an increase in the proportion of trees that are deciduous, compound leaved and are canopy species, and a concomitant reduction in trees that are evergreen, simple‐leaved, and understory species. These changes are opposite to predictions based on recovery from disturbance, and have resulted in (v) a uniform multivariate shift from a more mesic to a more xeric forest. Together, our results show that over relatively short time scales, community composition and the functional dominance may be more responsive to climate change than recovery to past disturbances. Our findings point to the importance of assessing proportional changes in forest composition and not just changes in absolute numbers. Our findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that tropical tree species exhibit differential sensitivity to changes in precipitation. Predicted future decreases in rainfall may result in quick differential shifts in forest function, physiognomy, and species composition. Quantifying proportional functional composition offers a basis for a predictive framework for how the structure, and diversity of tropical forests will respond to global change.     

Long‐term phytoplankton community changes in a deep subalpine lake: responses to nutrient availability and climatic fluctuations

1. In natural lakes, modifications in the species composition and abundance of phytoplankton communities may ultimately be responses to changes in nutrient availability and climatic fluctuations. Phytoplankton and associated environmental factors were collected at monthly intervals from the beginning of the 1990s to 2007 in the large subalpine Lake Garda (z_max = 350 m, V = 49 × 10⁹ m³). In this study period, the lake showed a slight and continuous increase of total phosphorus (TP) in the water column, up to concentrations of 18–20 μg P L^?1. This increase represented the last stage of a long‐term process of enrichment documented since the 1970s, when concentrations of TP were below or around 10 μg P L^?1. 2. At the community level, annual phytoplankton cycles underwent a unidirectional and slow shift mainly due to changes in the species more affected by the nutrient enrichment of the lake. After a first and long period of dominance by conjugatophytes (Mougeotia) and diatoms (Fragilaria), phytoplankton biomass in recent years was sustained by cyanobacteria (Planktothrix). Other important modifications in the development of phytoplankton were superimposed on this pattern due to the effects of annual climate fluctuations principally mediated by the deep mixing events at spring overturn and, secondarily, by temperature and thermal stability of the water column during the growing season. 3. Interannual variations in the stability and temperature of the water column appeared to influence the development of a few subdominant flagellates (dinophytes and cryptophytes). Nevertheless, the major impact of climate on phytoplankton was indirect, and mediated through the effects of winter climatic conditions on deep mixing dynamics. Winter climatic fluctuations proved to be a key element in a linked chain of causal factors including cooling of hypolimnetic waters, deep vertical mixing and epilimnetic nutrient replenishment. The process of fertilisation was measurable both for TP and dissolved inorganic nitrogen, although only the first had a large effect, reinforcing the seasonal growth of a few dominant groups. The degree of nutrient replenishment further increased the spring development of large diatoms and the increase of Planktothrix in summer and autumn. 4. Currently, changes in nutrient concentrations have the greatest effect on the phytoplankton community, while direct effects due to the interannual variations in the thermal regime are of secondary importance compared with the indirect effects mediated through deep water mixing and spring fertilisation. Overall, the results demonstrate that the consequences of climatic fluctuations and climate warming on phytoplankton communities need to be studied at different levels of complexity and integration, from the direct effects of temperature and thermal regime, to the indirect effects mediated by the physiographic characteristics of water bodies.