Metacommunity,mainland‐island system or island communities? Assessing the regional dynamics of plant communities in a fragmented landscape

Understanding the regional dynamics of plant communities is crucial for predicting the response of plant diversity to habitat fragmentation. However, for fragmented landscapes the importance of regional processes, such as seed dispersal among isolated habitat patches, has been controversially debated. Due to the stochasticity and rarity of among‐patch dispersal and colonization events, we still lack a quantitative understanding of the consequences of these processes at the landscape‐scale. In this study, we used extensive field data from a fragmented, semi‐arid landscape in Israel to parameterize a multi‐species incidence‐function model. This model simulates species occupancy pattern based on patch areas and habitat configuration and explicitly considers the locations and the shapes of habitat patches for the derivation of patch connectivity. We implemented an approximate Bayesian computation approach for parameter inference and uncertainty assessment. We tested which of the three types of regional dynamics – the metacommunity, the mainland‐island, or the island communities type – best represents the community dynamics in the study area and applied the simulation model to estimate the extinction debt in the investigated landscape. We found that the regional dynamics in the patch‐matrix study landscape is best represented as a system of highly isolated ‘island’ communities with low rates of propagule exchange among habitat patches and consequently low colonization rates in local communities. Accordingly, the extinction rates in the local communities are the main drivers of community dynamics. Our findings indicate that the landscape carries a significant extinction debt and in model projections 33–60% of all species went extinct within 1000 yr. Our study demonstrates that the combination of dynamic simulation models with field data provides a promising approach for understanding regional community dynamics and for projecting community responses to habitat fragmentation. The approach bears the potential for efficient tests of conservation activities aimed at mitigating future losses of biodiversity.     

Which plant traits predict species loss in calcareous grasslands with extinction debt?

Aim Habitat loss and degradation pose a major threat to biodiversity, which can result in the extinction of habitat characteristic species. However, many species exhibit a delayed response to environmental changes because of the slow intrinsic dynamics of populations, resulting in extinction debt. We assess directly the changes in habitat characteristic species composition by comparing historical (1923) and current inventories in highly fragmented grasslands. We aim to characterize the species that constitute extinction debt in European calcareous grasslands. Location Europe, Estonia, 59–60° N, 24–25° E. Methods We related eleven life‐history traits and selected habitat preferences to local extinctions of populations in grasslands where extinction debt has been largely paid. Traits were chosen to describe species dispersal and persistence abilities and were quantified from databases. Results The studied grasslands have lost 90% of their area and 30% of their characteristic plant populations in 90 years. Species more prone to local population extinction were characterized by shorter life span, self‐pollination, a lack of clonal growth, fewer seeds per shoot, lower average height, lower soil nitrogen preference and higher requirements for light, indicating a limited ability to tolerate the range of changes in biotic and abiotic conditions of the sites. Locally extinct populations were also characterized by wind‐dispersed seeds, lower seed weight and lower terminal velocity of seeds, suggesting that species strategies for long‐distance dispersal are not favoured in highly fragmented landscapes. Thus, both increased habitat isolation and decreased habitat quality are important in determining local population extinction. Main conclusions Populations more prone to local extinction were characterized by a number of life‐history traits, demonstrating a greater extinction risk for species with poorer abilities for local persistence and competition. Our results can be applied to less degraded grasslands where the extinction debt is not yet paid to determine those species most susceptible to future extinction.     

Evidence for a possible extinction debt in Swiss wetland specialist plants

1. Habitat loss leading to smaller patch sizes and decreasing connectivity is a major threat to global biodiversity. While some species vanish immediately after a change in habitat conditions, others show delayed extinction, that is, an extinction debt. In case of an extinction debt, the current species richness is higher than expected under present habitat conditions.
2. We investigated wetlands of the canton of Zürich in the lowlands of Eastern Switzerland where a wetland loss of 90% over the last 150 years occurred. We related current species richness to current and past patch area and connectivity (in 1850, 1900, 1950, and 2000). We compared current with predicted species richness in wetlands with a substantial loss in patch area based on the species‐area relationship of wetlands without substantial loss in patch area and studied relationships between the richness of different species groups and current and historical area and connectivity of wetland patches.
3. We found evidence of a possible extinction debt for long‐lived wetland specialist vascular plants: in wetlands, which substantially lost patch area, current species richness of long‐lived specialist vascular plants was higher than would have been expected based on current patch area. Additionally and besides current wetland area, historical area also explained current species richness of these species in a substantial and significant way. No evidence for an extinction debt in bryophytes was found.
4. The possible unpaid extinction debt in the wetlands of the canton of Zürich is an appeal to nature conservation, which has the possibility to prevent likely future extinctions of species through specific conservation measures. In particular, a further reduction in wetlands must be prevented and restoration measures must be taken to increase the number of wetlands.

     

Do asynchronies in extinction debt affect the structure of trophic networks? A case study of antagonistic butterfly larvae–plant networks

Habitat loss and fragmentation affect species richness in fragmented habitats and can lead to immediate or time‐delayed species extinctions. Asynchronies in extinction and extinction debt between interacting species may have severe effects on ecological networks. However, these effects remain largely unknown. We evaluated the effects of habitat patch and landscape changes on antagonistic butterfly larvae–plant trophic networks in Mediterranean grasslands in which previous studies had shown the existence of extinction debt in plants but not in butterflies. We sampled current species richness of habitat‐specialist and generalist butterflies and vascular plants in 26 grasslands. We assessed the direct effects of historical and current patch and landscape characteristics on species richness and on butterfly larvae–plant trophic network metrics and robustness. Although positive species‐ and interactions–area relationships were found in all networks, structure and robustness was only affected by patch and landscape changes in networks involving the subset of butterfly specialists. Larger patches had more species (butterflies and host plants) and interactions but also more compartments, which decreased network connectance but increased network stability. Moreover, most likely due to the rescue effect, patch connectivity increased host‐plant species (but not butterfly) richness and total links, and network robustness in specialist networks. On the other hand, patch area loss decreased robustness in specialist butterfly larvae–plant networks and made them more prone to collapse against host plant extinctions. Finally, in all butterfly larvae–plant networks we also detected a past patch and landscape effect on network asymmetry, which indicates that there were different extinction rates and extinction debts for butterflies and host plants. We conclude that asynchronies in extinction and extinction debt in butterfly–plant networks provoked by patch and landscape changes caused changes in species richness and network links in all networks, as well as changes in network structure and robustness in specialist networks.     

Relative importance of landscape and species characteristics on extinction debt,immigration credit and relaxation time after habitat turnover

Habitat turnover concomitantly causes destruction and creation of habitat patches. Following such a perturbation, metapopulations harbor either an extinction debt or an immigration credit, that is the future decrease or increase in population numbers due to this disturbance. Extinction debt and immigration credit are rarely considered simultaneously and disentangled from the relaxation time (time to new equilibrium). In this contribution, we test the relative importance of two potential drivers of time-delayed metapopulation dynamics: the spatial configuration of the habitat turnover and species dispersal ability. We provide a simulation-based investigation projecting metapopulation dynamics following habitat turnover in virtual landscapes. We consider two virtual species (a short-distance and a long-distance disperser) and five scenarios of habitat turnover depending on net habitat loss or gain and habitat aggregation. Our analyses reveal that (a) the main determinant of the magnitude of the extinction debt or immigration credit is the net change in total habitat area, followed by species dispersal distance and finally by the post-turnover habitat aggregation; (b) relaxation time weakly depends on the magnitude of the immigration credit or of the extinction debt; (c) the main determinant of relaxation time is dispersal distance followed by the net change in total habitat area and finally by the post-turnover habitat aggregation. These results shed light on the relative importance of dispersal ability and habitat turnover spatial structure on the components of time-delayed metapopulation dynamics.     

Effects of habitat history and extinction selectivity on species-richness patterns of an island land snail fauna

Aim Local‐scale diversity patterns are not necessarily regulated by contemporary processes, but may be the result of historical events such as habitat changes and selective extinctions that occurred in the past. We test this hypothesis by examining species‐richness patterns of the land snail fauna on an oceanic island where forest was once destroyed but subsequently recovered. Location Hahajima Island of the Ogasawara Islands in the western Pacific. Methods Species richness of land snails was examined in 217 0.25 × 0.25 km squares during 1990–91 and 2005–07. Associations of species richness with elevation, current habitat quality (proportion of habitat composed of indigenous trees and uncultivated areas), number of alien snail species, and proportion of forest loss before 1945 in each area were examined using a randomization test and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models. Extinctions in each area and on the entire island were detected by comparing 2005–07 records with 1990–91 records and previously published records from surveys in 1987–91 and 1901–07. The association of species extinction with snail ecotype and the above environmental factors was examined using a spatial generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). Results The level of habitat loss before 1945 explained the greatest proportion of variation in the geographical patterns of species richness. Current species richness was positively correlated with elevation in the arboreal species, whereas it was negatively correlated with elevation in the ground‐dwelling species. However, no or a positive correlation was found between elevation and richness of the ground‐dwelling species in 1987–91. The change of the association with elevation in the ground‐dwelling species was caused by greater recent extinction at higher elevation, possibly as a result of predation by malacophagous flatworms. In contrast, very minor extinction levels have occurred in arboreal species since 1987–91, and their original patterns have remained unaltered, mainly because flatworms do not climb trees. Main conclusions The species‐richness patterns of the land snails on Hahajima Island are mosaics shaped by extinction resulting from habitat loss more than 60 years ago, recent selective extinction, and original faunal patterns. The effects of habitat destruction have remained long after habitat recovery. Different factors have operated during different periods and at different time‐scales. These findings suggest that historical processes should be taken into account when considering local‐scale diversity patterns.     

Metapopulation dynamics of a beetle species confined to burned forest sites in a managed forest region

Despite increasing awareness of the theoretical importance of habitat dynamics on metapopulations, only a few empirical studies have been conducted. We aimed to increase our understanding of how patch size, dynamics and connectivity affect colonization–extinction dynamics and the occurrence patterns of a beetle (Stephanopachys linearis), which breeds only in burned trees, existing as dynamic habitat patches that have become rare in managed forest landscapes. We assessed species’ presence/absence twice in all known habitat patches (i.e. > 1 ha sites where forest fires had occurred during the previous 2–15 yr) in a 200 × 150 km region of central Sweden, dominated by managed boreal forest. Evaluated over six years, the colonization rate was 47% and the local extinction risk was 65%. Probability of colonization increased with patch size (number of suitable trees in a site) and connectivity to occupied patches within 30 km, and decreased with increasing time since fire. Local extinction risk decreased with habitat patch size but increased, unexpectedly, with connectivity. Occurrence increased with patch size and decreased with increasing time since fire. At a regional scale, S. linearis tracks the fire dynamics by colonising sites with burned trees and by becoming extinct at rates which make the species rare at sites where burnt trees are more than eight years old. In managed boreal forest landscapes, a large proportion of sites may be created by prescribed burning (in our study area: 82%), and consequently human decisions strongly affect the future amount of habitat for fire‐dependent species and its spatial distribution. Stephanopachys linearis uses burned sites more often if more trees are retained and, to some extent, if sites are concentrated in those parts of a region that already support high population densities of the species.     

Inconsistent detection of extinction debts using different methods

The extinction debt, delayed species extinctions following landscape degradation, is a widely discussed concept. But a consensus about the prevalence of extinctions debts is hindered by a multiplicity of methods and a lack of comparisons among habitats. We applied three contrasting species–area relationship methods to test for plant community extinction debts in three habitats which had different degradation histories over the last century: calcareous grassland, heathland and woodland. These methods differ in their data requirements, with the first two using information on past and current habitat area alongside current species richness, whilst the last method also requires data on past species richness. The most data‐intensive, and hence arguably most reliable method, identified extinction debts across all habitats for specialist species, whilst the other methods did not. All methods detected an extinction debt in calcareous grassland, which had undergone the most severe degradation. We conclude that some methods failed to detect an extinction debt, particularly in habitats that have undergone moderate degradation. Data on past species numbers are required for the most reliable method; as such data are rare, extinction debts may be under‐reported.     

The biodiversity‐dependent ecosystem service debt

Habitat destruction is driving biodiversity loss in remaining ecosystems, and ecosystem functioning and services often directly depend on biodiversity. Thus, biodiversity loss is likely creating an ecosystem service debt: a gradual loss of biodiversity‐dependent benefits that people obtain from remaining fragments of natural ecosystems. Here, we develop an approach for quantifying ecosystem service debts, and illustrate its use to estimate how one anthropogenic driver, habitat destruction, could indirectly diminish one ecosystem service, carbon storage, by creating an extinction debt. We estimate that c. 2–21 Pg C could be gradually emitted globally in remaining ecosystem fragments because of plant species loss caused by nearby habitat destruction. The wide range for this estimate reflects substantial uncertainties in how many plant species will be lost, how much species loss will impact ecosystem functioning and whether plant species loss will decrease soil carbon. Our exploratory analysis suggests that biodiversity‐dependent ecosystem service debts can be globally substantial, even when locally small, if they occur diffusely across vast areas of remaining ecosystems. There is substantial value in conserving not only the quantity (area), but also the quality (biodiversity) of natural ecosystems for the sustainable provision of ecosystem services.     

Bird Assemblages in Anthropogenic Habitats: Identifying a Suitability Gradient for Native Species in the Atlantic Forest

Traditional approaches to the study of species persistence in fragmented landscapes generally consider a binary classification of habitat being suitable or unsuitable; however, the range of human‐modified habitats within a region may offer a gradient of habitat suitability (or conservation value) for species. We identified such a gradient by comparing bird assemblages among contrasting land uses (pine plantations of different age, annual crops, clear cuts and cattle pastures) in the Upper Parana Atlantic forest. Bird assemblages and vegetation structure were characterized in an extensive area of 4400 km² in Argentina and Paraguay during the breeding seasons of 2005–2010. Similarity of bird assemblages between anthropogenic habitats and the native forest and the proportion of forest species increased with vegetation vertical structure, while the proportion of open‐area species decreased. As a consequence, mature tree plantations were the most suitable habitats for forest species and were mainly used by frugivores and bark insectivores. In contrast, open habitats were the least suitable habitat for forest species and were used primarily by insectivores. Human‐created habitats that are structurally complex can be used by a subset of forest species, and may improve functional connectivity and mitigate edge effects. The conservation of large tracks of native forests, however, is critical for the long‐term persistence of the entire bird assemblage, especially for native forest dependent species.     

Habitat destruction and the extinction debt revisited: The Allee effect

Habitat destruction, often caused by anthropogenic disturbance, can lead to the extinction of species at an unprecedented rate. It is important, therefore, to consider habitat destruction when assessing population viability. Another factor often ignored in population viability analysis, is the Allee effect that adds to the risk of populations already on the verge of extinction. Understanding the Allee effect on species dynamics and response to habitat destruction has intrinsic value in conservation prioritization. Here, the Allee effect was considered in a multi-species hierarchical competition model. Results showed that species persistence declines dramatically due to the Allee effect, and certain species become more susceptible to habitat destruction than others. Two extinction orders emerged under habitat destruction: either the best competitor becomes extinct first or the best colonizer first. The extinction debt and order, as well as the time lag between habitat destruction and species extinction, were found to be determined by species abundance and the intensity of the Allee effect.     

Species–area relationships and biodiversity loss in fragmented landscapes

To estimate species loss from habitat destruction, ecologists typically use species–area relationships, but this approach neglects the spatial pattern of habitat fragmentation. Here, we provide new, easily applied, analytical methods that place upper and lower bounds on immediate species loss at any spatial scale and for any spatial pattern of habitat loss. Our formulas are expressed in terms of what we name the ‘Preston function’, which describes triphasic species–area relationships for contiguous regions. We apply our method to case studies of deforestation and tropical tree species loss at three different scales: a 50 ha forest plot in Panama, the tropical city‐state of Singapore and the Brazilian Amazon. Our results show that immediate species loss is somewhat insensitive to fragmentation pattern at small scales but highly sensitive at larger scales: predicted species loss in the Amazon varies by a factor of 16 across different spatial structures of habitat loss.     

Understanding extinction debts: spatio–temporal scales,mechanisms and a roadmap for future research

Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such extinctions and investigating long‐term consequences of perturbations has proven challenging, because perturbations are not isolated and occur across various spatial and temporal scales, from local habitat losses to global warming. Additionally, the relative importance of eco‐evolutionary processes varies across scales, because levels of ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations and (meta)communities, respond hierarchically to perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge of the scales and mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical and methodological studies addressing either the spatio–temporal scales of extinction debts or the eco‐evolutionary mechanisms delaying extinctions. Extinction debts were detected across a range of ecosystems and taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging from 9 to 90% of current species richness. The duration over which debts have been sustained varies from 5 to 570 yr, and projections of the total period required to settle a debt can extend to 1000 yr. Reported causes of delayed extinctions are 1) life‐history traits that prolong individual survival, and 2) population and metapopulation dynamics that maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors that may extend survival time such as microevolutionary dynamics, or delayed extinctions of interaction partners, have rarely been analyzed. Therefore, we propose a roadmap for future research with three key avenues: 1) the microevolutionary dynamics of extinction processes, 2) the disjunctive loss of interacting species and 3) the impact of multiple regimes of perturbation on the payment of debts. For their ability to integrate processes occurring at different levels of ecological organization, we highlight mechanistic simulation models as tools to address these knowledge gaps and to deepen our understanding of extinction dynamics.     

Extinction debt and the role of static and dynamical fragmentation on biodiversity

The mass-extinction events caused by human-driven habitat loss are a current concern in conservation science. However, the observed number of extinctions is considerably smaller than predicted. The overestimation of extinction rates comes from the time-delay which depends on the species sensitivity to habitat changes. The standard method of predicting the effect of habitat loss on biodiversity is to use the species–area relationship and progressively following it backwards to smaller areas. The difference between the actual number of species and the one provided by the backwards species–area relationship is dubbed extinction debt. Previous studies in general adopt a static view for the spatial distribution of species. Nonetheless, a precise understanding of the problem urges us to adopt a dynamic framework to this issue since the time between disturbances of the landscape plays an active role in influencing the strength of the extinction debt. In this context, here we address two distinct approaches for this question: a static and a dynamic view of fragmentation. In the former we quantify the extinction debt in a quenched spatial distribution of species, whereas in the latter the community is let to evolve between disturbance events of the landscape. Here we show that the size of the extinction debt depends on the pattern of the fragmentation. It is found that random distributions of destroyed habitats provide larger extinction debts than those obtained for contiguous areas of fragmentation. Furthermore, in the dynamic approach it is observed that dispersal can lead to unexpected outcomes such as lower biodiversity levels than ones inferred from the backwards species–area relationship.     

Species–area relationships of red-listed species in old boreal forests: a large-scale data analysis

Aim Species–area relationships are often applied, but not generally approved, to guide practical conservation planning. The specific species group analysed may affect their applicability. We asked if species–area curves constructed from extensive databases of various sectors of natural resource administration can provide insights into large‐scale conservation of boreal forest biodiversity if the analyses are restricted only to red‐listed species. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods Our data included 12,645 records of 219 red‐listed Coleoptera and Fungi from the whole of Finland. The forest data also covered the entire country, 202,761 km². The units of species–area analyses were 224 municipalities where the red‐listed forest species have been observed. We performed a hierarchical partitioning analysis to reveal the relative importance of different potential explanatory variables. Based on the results, for all red‐listed species, species associated with coniferous trees and for Fungi, the area of economically over‐aged forests explained the best the variation in data. For species associated with deciduous trees and Coleoptera, the forest area explained better variation in data than the area of old forests. In the subsequent log–log species–area regression analyses, we used the best variables as the explanatory variable for each species group. Results There was a strong relationship between the number of all red‐listed species and the area of old forests remaining, with a z‐value of 0.45. The area explained better the number of species associated with conifer trees and Fungi than the number of species associated with deciduous trees and Coleoptera. Main conclusions The high z‐values of species–area curves indicate that the remaining old‐growth patches constitute a real archipelago for the conifer‐associated red‐listed species, since lower values had been expected if the surrounding habitat matrix were a suitable habitat for the species analysed.     

How well is current plant trait composition predicted by modern and historical forest spatial configuration?

There is increasing evidence to suggest that a delayed response of many forest species to habitat loss and fragmentation leads to the development of extinction debts and immigration credits in affected forest habitat. These time lags result in plant communities which are not well predicted by present day landscape structure, reducing the accuracy of biodiversity assessments and predictions for future change. Here, species richness data and mean values for five life history characteristics within deciduous broadleaved forest habitat across Great Britain were used to quantify the degree to which aspects of present day forest plant composition are best explained by modern or historical forest patch area. Ancient forest specialist richness, mean rarity and mean seed terminal velocity were not well predicted by modern patch area, implying the existence of a degree of lag in British forest patches. Mean seedbank persistence values were more closely related to modern patch area than historical, particularly in larger patches. The variation in response for different mean trait values suggests that species respond to landscape change at different rates depending upon their combinations of different trait states. Current forest understorey communities are therefore likely to consist of a mixture of declining species whose extinction debt is still to be paid, and faster colonising immigrant species. These results indicate that without management action, rare and threatened species of plant are likely to be lost in the future as a result of changes in forest spatial configuration that have already taken place. The lag seen here for rare specialist plants suggests however that there may still be scope to protect such species before they are lost from forest patches.     

A preliminary population viability analysis of the critically endangered blue‐eyed black lemur (Eulemur flavifrons)

Population viability analysis is an important tool to assess the extinction risk in small populations of highly specialized primates. The blue‐eyed black lemur (Eulemur flavifrons) is critically endangered with a restricted range in the north‐western dry deciduous forest of Madagascar, where habitat fragmentation and loss of forest connectivity threaten its survival. We performed a population viability analysis (PVA) of this lemur in Ankarafa Forest in the Sahamalaza Peninsula National Park, north‐western Madagascar, to determine the demographic parameters most influential for population persistence and to assess extinction probabilities. We conducted PVA analyses using different demographic parameters which characterize the species including reproduction, lifespan and population size using the software VORTEX for six scenarios with 100 iterations and simulated over 100 years. The simulations suggested the first extinction within 13 years when the percentage of habitat destruction increased up to 12%. Severe habitat destruction such as fire and logging was the major cause which led to the risk of population extinction. Conservation strategies, in particular measures to reduce habitat destruction, are proposed to ensure the survival of this critically endangered lemur.     

Potential extinction debt due to habitat loss and fragmentation in subalpine moorland ecosystems

Habitat loss and fragmentation would often induce delayed extinction, referred to as extinction debt. Understanding potential extinction debts would allow us to reduce future extinction risk by restoring habitats or implementing conservation actions. Although growing empirical evidence has predicted extinction debts in various ecosystems exposed to direct human disturbances, potential extinction debts in natural ecosystems with minimal direct human disturbance are little studied. Ongoing climate change may cause habitat loss and fragmentation, particularly in natural ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change, potentially leading to future local extinctions. Recent climate change would lead to extended growing season caused by earlier snowmelt in spring, resulting in expansion of shrubby species and thereby habitat loss and fragmentation of mountainous moorlands. We examined the potential extinction debts of species diversity and functional diversity (FD; trait variation or multivariate trait differences within a community) in subalpine moorland ecosystems subjected to few direct human disturbances. Plant species richness for all species and for moorland specialists were primarily explained by the past kernel density of focal moorlands (a proxy for spatial clustering of moorlands around them) but not the past area of the focal moorlands, suggesting potential extinction debt in subalpine moorland ecosystems. The higher kernel density of the focal moorland in the past indicates that it was originally surrounded by more neighborhood moorlands and/or had been locally highly fragmented. Patterns in current plant species richness have been shaped by the historical spatial configuration of moorlands, which have disappeared over time. In contrast, we found no significant relationships between the FD and historical and current landscape variables depicting each moorland. The prevalence of trait convergence might result in a less sensitive response of FD to habitat loss and fragmentation compared to that of species richness. Our finding has an important implication that climate change induced by human activities may threaten biodiversity in natural ecosystems through habitat loss and fragmentation.

     

How,and how much,natural cover loss increases species richness

Aim The species–area relationship has been applied in the conservation context to predict monotonic species richness declines as natural area is converted to human‐dominated land covers. However, some conversion of natural cover could introduce new habitat types and allow new open habitat species to occur. Moreover, decelerating richness–area relationships suggest that, as natural area is converted to human‐dominated covers, more species will be added to the rare habitat than are lost from the common one. Area effects and increased habitat diversity could each lead to a peaked relationship between species richness and the relative amount of natural area. The purpose of this study is to quantify the effect on avian species richness of conversion of natural area to human‐dominated land cover. Location Ontario, Canada. Methods We evaluated the responses of total avian richness, forest bird richness and open habitat bird richness to remaining natural area within 993 quadrats, each of 100 km². We quantified the amount of natural land cover and land‐cover heterogeneity using remote sensing data. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to disentangle the relationships among avian richness, natural area and land‐cover heterogeneity. Results Spatial variation in avian richness was a peaked function of remaining natural area, such that losses of up to 44% of the natural area increased avian richness. This partly reflects increased variety of land cover; however, SEM suggests that much of the increase in richness is due to pure area effects. Richness of forest species declined by two species over this range of natural cover loss while open habitat bird richness increased by approximately 20 species. The effect of natural area on species richness is consistent with the sum of species–area curves for natural habitat species and human‐dominated habitat species. Main conclusions At least in northern temperate forests, almost half of the natural land cover can be converted to human‐dominated forms before avian richness declines. Conversion of < 50% of regional natural area to human‐dominated land cover can benefit open‐area species richness with relatively few losses of forest obligate species. However, with > 50% natural area conversion, species begin to drop out of regional assemblages.     

Extinction–immigration dynamics lag behind environmental filtering in shaping the composition of tropical dry forests within a changing landscape

The impact of rapid habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity is a major issue. However, we still lack an integrative understanding of how these changes influence biodiversity dynamics over time. In this study, we investigate the effects of these changes in terms of both niche-based and neutral dynamics. We hypothesize that habitat loss has delayed effects on neutral immigration–extinction dynamics, while edge effects and environmental heterogeneity in habitat patches have rapid effects on niche-based dynamics. We analyzed taxonomic and functional composition of 100 tree communities in a tropical dry forest landscape of New-Caledonia subject to habitat loss and fragmentation. We designed an original, process-based simulation framework, and performed Approximate Bayesian Computation to infer the influence of niche-based and neutral processes. Then, we performed partial regressions to evaluate the relationships between inferred parameter values of communities and landscape metrics (distance to edge, patch area, and habitat amount around communities), derived from either recent or past (65 yr ago) aerial photographs, while controlling for the effect of soil and topography. We found that landscape structure influences both environmental filtering and immigration. Immigration rate was positively related to past habitat amount surrounding communities. In contrast, environmental filtering was mostly affected by present landscape structure and mainly influenced by edge vicinity and topography. Our results highlight that landscape changes have contrasting spatio-temporal influences on niche-based and neutral assembly dynamics. First, landscape-level habitat loss and community isolation reduce immigration and increase demographic stochasticity, resulting in slow decline of local species diversity and extinction debt. Second, recent edge creation affects environmental filtering, incurring rapid changes in community composition by favoring species with edge-adapted strategies. Our study brings new insights about temporal impacts of landscape changes on biodiversity dynamics. We stress that landscape history critically influences these dynamics and should be taken into account in conservation policies.