Invasive cane toads are unique in shape but overlap in ecological niche compared to Australian native frogs

Invasive species are an important issue worldwide but predicting invasiveness, and the underlying mechanisms that cause it, is difficult. There are several primary hypotheses to explain invasion success. Two main hypothesis based on niche spaces stand out as alternative, although not exclusive. The empty niche hypothesis states that invaders occupy a vacant niche space in the recipient community, and the niche competition hypothesis states that invaders overlap with native species in niche space. Studies on trait similarity/dissimilarity between the invader and native species can provide information on their niche overlap. Here, we use the highly invasive and well‐studied cane toad (Rhinella marina) to test these two hypotheses in Australia, and assess its degree of overlap with native species in several niche dimensions. We compare extensive morphological and environmental data of this successful invader to 235 species (97%) of native Australian frogs. Our study is the first to document the significant morphological differences between the invasive cane toad and a continent‐wide frog radiation: despite significant environmental overlap, cane toads were distinct in body size and shape from most Australian frog species, suggesting that in addition to their previously documented phenotypic plasticity and wide environmental and trophic niche breadth, their unique shape also may have contributed to their success as an invasive species in Australia. Thus, the invasive success of cane toads in Australia may be explained through them successfully colonizing an empty niche among Australian anurans. Our results support that the cane toad's distinct morphology may have played a unique role in the invasiveness of this species in Australia, which coupled with a broad environmental niche breadth, would have boosted their ability to expand their distribution across Australia. We also propose RLLR (Relative limb length ratio) as a potentially useful measure of identifying morphological niche uniqueness and a potential measure of invasiveness potential in anuran amphibians.     

Native range climate is insufficient to predict anuran invasive potential

Niche conservatism explains biological invasions worldwide. However, a plethora of ecological processes may lead invasive species to occupy environments that are different from those found within native ranges. Here, we assess the potential invadable areas of  the world’s most pervasive invasive amphibians: the cane toad, Rhinella marina?+?R. horribilis, and the North American bullfrog, Lithobates catesbeianus. The uncontrolled spread of such voracious, large-bodied, and disease-tolerant anurans has been documented to impact native faunas worldwide. To disentangle their invasion-related niche dynamics, we compared the predictive ability and distributional forecasts of ecological niche models calibrated with information from native, invaded and pooled (native?+?invaded) ranges. We found that including occurrences from invaded ranges improved model accuracy for both studied species. Non-native occurrences also accounted for 54% and 61% increase in the total area of potential distribution of the cane toad and bullfrog, respectively. Besides, the latter species occupied locations with climatic conditions that are more extreme than those found within its native range. Our results indicate that the occupancy of environments different from those found in native ranges increases the overall potential distribution of the studied invasive anuran species. Therefore, climate information on native ranges alone is insufficient to explain and anticipate the distributional patterns of invasion of cane toads and bullfrogs, underestimating predictions of potential invadable distribution. Moreover, such an observed expansion of realized niches towards occupancy of climates not found within native ranges also has clear implications for invasion risk assessments based on climate modelling worldwide.

     

A toad more traveled: the heterogeneous invasion dynamics of cane toads in Australia

To predict the spread of invasive species, we need to understand the mechanisms that underlie their range expansion. Assuming random diffusion through homogeneous environments, invasions are expected to progress at a constant rate. However, environmental heterogeneity is expected to alter diffusion rates, especially by slowing invasions as populations encounter suboptimal environmental conditions. Here, we examine how environmental and landscape factors affect the local invasion speeds of cane toads (Chaunus [Bufo] marinus) in Australia. Using high-resolution cane toad data, we demonstrate heterogeneous regional invasion dynamics that include both decelerating and accelerating range expansions. Toad invasion speed increased in regions characterized by high temperatures, heterogeneous topography, low elevations, dense road networks, and high patch connectivity. Regional increases in the toad invasion rate might be caused by environmental conditions that facilitate toad reproduction and movement, by the evolution of long-distance dispersal ability, or by some combination of these factors. In any case, theoretical predictions that neglect environmental influences on dispersal at multiple spatial scales may prove to be inaccurate. Early predictions of cane toad range expansion rates that assumed constant diffusion across homogeneous landscapes already have been proved wrong. Future attempts to predict range dynamics for invasive species should consider heterogeneity in (1) the environmental factors that determine dispersal rates and (2) the mobility of invasive populations because dispersal-relevant traits can evolve in exotic habitats. As an invasive species spreads, it is likely to encounter conditions that influence dispersal rates via one or both of these mechanisms.     

Behavioural responses of native predators to an invasive toxic prey species

One important impact of invasive species may be to modify the behaviour of native taxa. For example, the invasion of highly toxic cane toads (Bufo marinus) kills many anurophagous native predators, but other predators learn to recognize and avoid the toxic invader. We exposed native fish (northern trout gudgeons, Mogurnda mogurnda) and Dahl's aquatic frogs (Litoria dahlii) to cane toad tadpoles, then monitored the predator's responses during subsequent trials. Both the frogs and fish initially attacked toad tadpoles, but rapidly learned not to do so. Fish and adult frogs retained their aversion for at least a week, whereas recently metamorphosed frogs did not. Clearly, the spread of cane toads through tropical Australia can modify feeding responses of native aquatic predators. For predators capable of rapid avoidance learning, the primary impact of cane toads may be on foraging behaviour rather than mortality.     

Adaptation or preadaptation: why are keelback snakes (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Tropidonophis mairii</Emphasis>) less vulnerable to invasive cane toads (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Bufo marinus</Emphasis>) than are other Australian snakes?

Biological invasions can expose native predators to novel prey which may be less nutritious or detrimental to predators. The introduction and subsequent spread of cane toads (Bufo marinus) through Australia has killed many anuran-eating snakes unable to survive the toad’s toxins. However, one native species, the keelback snake (Tropidonophis mairii), is relatively resistant to toad toxins and remains common in toad-infested areas. Is the keelback’s ability to coexist with toads a function of its ancestral Asian origins, or a consequence of rapid adaptation since cane toads arrived in Australia? And does the snake’s feeding preference for frogs rather than toads reflect an innate or learned behaviour? We compared keelback populations long sympatric with toads with a population that has encountered toads only recently. Unlike toad-vulnerable snake species, sympatry with toads has not affected keelback toxin tolerances or feeding responses: T. mairii from toad-sympatric and toad-naïve populations show a similar sensitivity to toad toxin, and a similar innate preference for frogs rather than toads. Feeding responses of neonatal keelbacks demonstrate that learning plays little or no role in the snake’s aversion to toads. Thus, behavioural aversion to B. marinus as prey, and physiological tolerance to toad toxins are pre-existing innate characteristics of Australian keelbacks rather than adaptations to the cane toad’s invasion of Australia. Such traits were most likely inherited from ancestral keelbacks that adapted to the presence of bufonids in Asia. Our results suggest that the impact of invasive species on native taxa may be strongly influenced by the biogeographic histories of the species involved.     

Invasive parasites in multiple invasive hosts: the arrival of a new host revives a stalled prior parasite invasion

The success of a biological invasion can depend upon other invasions; and in some cases, an earlier invader may fail to spread until facilitated by a second invader. Our study documents a case whereby an invasive parasite has remained patchily distributed for decades due to the fragmented nature of available hosts; but the recent arrival of a broadly distributed alternative invasive host species provides an opportunity for the parasite to expand its range considerably. At least 20 years ago, endoparasitic pentastomids (Raillietiella frenata) were brought with their native host, the invasive Asian house gecko Hemidactylus frenatus, to the port city of Darwin in tropical Australia. These geckos rarely disperse away from human habitation, restricting the transmission of their parasites to urban environments – and thus, their pentastomids have remained patchily distributed and have only been recorded in scant localities, primarily surrounding Darwin. The recent range expansion of the invasive cane toad Rhinella marina into the Darwin area has provided an alternative host for this pentastomid. Our results show that the cane toad is a competent host for Ra. frenata– toads shed fully embryonated pentastomid eggs in their faeces – and that pentastomids are now common in cane toads near Darwin. Likely reflecting the tendency for the parasite's traditional definitive host (the Asian house gecko) and only known intermediate host (the cockroach) to reside around buildings, we found the prevalence of this parasite follows an urban distribution. Because cane toads are widely distributed through urban and rural habitat and can shed viable pentastomid eggs, the toad invasion is likely to facilitate the parasite's spread across the tropics, into areas (and additional susceptible hosts) that were previously inaccessible to it.     

Effects of an invasive anuran [the cane toad (Bufo marinus)] on the invertebrate fauna of a tropical Australian floodplain

The ways in which invasive organisms influence native ecosystems remain poorly understood. For example, feral cane toads Bufo marinus have spread extensively through tropical Australia over the last 70 years, but assessments of their ecological impact remain largely anecdotal. We conducted experimental trials to examine the effect of cane toad presence on invertebrate fauna in relatively small (2.4 × 1.2 m) outdoor enclosures on a floodplain near Darwin in the wet–dry tropics. Toads significantly reduced invertebrate abundance and species richness, but only to about the same degree as did an equivalent biomass of native anurans. Thus, if toads simply replaced native anurans, the offtake of invertebrates might not be substantially different from that due to native anurans before toad invasion. However, our field surveys suggest that toads cause a massive (fourfold) increase in total amphibian biomass. The end result is that cane toads act as a massive nutrient sink in the floodplain ecosystem because they consume vast numbers of invertebrates but (unlike native frogs) are largely invulnerable to predation by frog-eating predators.     

A review of ecological interactions between native frogs and invasive cane toads in Australia

Translocated from their native range in the Americas in 1935, cane toads (Rhinella marina, Bufonidae) have now spread through much of tropical and subtropical Australia. The toad's invasion and impact have attracted detailed study. In this paper, I review information on ecological interactions between cane toads and Australian anurans. The phylogenetic relatedness and ecological similarity between frogs and toads creates opportunities for diverse interactions, ranging from predation to competition to parasite transfer, plus a host of indirect effects mediated via impacts of toads on other species, and by people's attempts to control toads. The most clear‐cut effect of toads on frogs is a positive one: reducing predator pressure by fatally poisoning anuran‐eating varanid lizards. However, toads also have a wide range of other effects on frogs, some positive (e.g. taking up parasites that would otherwise infect native frogs) and others negative (e.g. eating frogs, poisoning frogs, competing with tadpoles). Although information on such mechanisms predicts intense interactions between toads and frogs, field surveys show that cane toad invasion has negligible overall impacts on frog abundance. That counter‐intuitive result is because of a broad balancing of negative and positive impacts, coupled with stochastic (weather‐induced) fluctuations in anuran abundance that overwhelm any impacts of toads. Also, the impacts of toads on frogs differ among frog species and life‐history stages, and depend upon local environmental conditions. The impacts of native frogs on cane toads have attracted much less study, but may well be important: frogs may impose biotic resistance to cane toad colonization, especially via competition in the larval phase. Overall, the interactions between native frogs and invasive toads illustrate the diverse ways in which an invader's arrival can perturb the native fauna by both direct and indirect mechanisms, and by which the native species can curtail an invader's success. These studies also offer a cautionary tale about the difficulty of predicting the impact of an invasive species, even with a clear understanding of mechanisms of direct interaction.     

Behavioural flexibility allows an invasive vertebrate to survive in a semi-arid environment

Plasticity or evolution in behavioural responses are key attributes of successful animal invasions. In northern Australia, the invasive cane toad (Rhinella marina) recently invaded semi-arid regions. Here, cane toads endure repeated daily bouts of severe desiccation and thermal stress during the long dry season (April–October). We investigated whether cane toads have shifted their ancestral nocturnal rehydration behaviour to one that exploits water resources during the day. Such a shift in hydration behaviour could increase the fitness of individual toads by reducing exposure to desiccation and thermal stress suffered during the day even within terrestrial shelters. We used a novel method (acoustic tags) to monitor the daily hydration behaviour of 20 toads at two artificial reservoirs on Camfield station, Northern Territory. Remarkably, cane toads visited reservoirs to rehydrate during daylight hours, with peaks in activity between 9.00 and 17.00. This diurnal pattern of rehydration activity contrasts with nocturnal rehydration behaviour exhibited by adult toads in their native geographical range and more mesic parts of Australia. Our results demonstrate that cane toads phase shift a key behaviour to survive in a harsh semi-arid landscape. Behavioural phase shifts have rarely been reported in invasive species but could facilitate ongoing invasion success.     

Cane toads a threat to West Indian wildlife: mortality of Jamaican boas attributable to toad ingestion

The notorious “cane toad” (Bufo marinus) is considered to be one of the 100 worst invasive species in the world. A native of South and Central America, Mexico, and the Rio Grande Valley of the United States, this large toad was intentionally introduced to islands in the Caribbean, and subsequently throughout the southern Pacific, as a biological control agent to combat sugar cane pests. Unfortunately, the primary result of those introductions has been deleterious impacts on native biotas, primarily through competition and predation. More recently, the cane toad has devastated populations of amphibian-eating predators in Australia, through the ingestion of this highly toxic anuran. Elsewhere, however, the impact of the toad on native predators has not been documented. Here we report the first evidence that the cane toad is impacting native predators in other geographic regions. Specifically, we document death due to cane toad poisoning in the endemic and threatened Jamaican boa (Epicrates subflavus). To our knowledge, this is the first report of cane toads causing mortality in naturally occurring predators outside of Australia. Like all members of the genus, B. marinus secretes a powerful bufogenin toxin, which is often fatal if ingested by naïve species that have not co-evolved with Bufo species. Our results should therefore serve as a warning that other endemic predator species in the West Indies and elsewhere may be at risk. Thus, efforts to control the population growth and spread of cane toads may be of even greater conservation concern than previously recognized.     

Effects of invasive cane toads on Australian mosquitoes: Does the dark cloud have a silver lining?

Research on the ecological impacts of invasive organisms typically looks only for negative impacts, ignoring the possibility that the wider community might see benefits in some of these effects. To truly understand the impact of invasive species, we need to look as broadly as possible, and incorporate studies on a diversity of variables. The spread of the South American cane toad (Bufo marinus) through tropical Australia is widely viewed as an ecological catastrophe, but anecdotal reports suggest that the invasion of toads may reduce the numbers of mosquitoes (and thus, potentially, the risk they pose to human health). We conducted experiments to determine whether the presence of toad tadpoles affects survival rates, adult body sizes and/or rates of oviposition of four species of disease-carrying mosquitoes. In the laboratory, the presence of toad tadpoles significantly reduced the sizes of adult mosquitoes at emergence, and also reduced survival rates of the larvae of one mosquito species. In field trials, mosquitoes were less likely to oviposit in waterbodies containing toad tadpoles. Accordingly, these data suggest (but do not prove) that toad invasion may reduce mosquito abundance. More generally, any overall evaluation of the impact of an invasive species needs to consider possible benefits (e.g. to human health) as well as negative effects (e.g. to native species). Both types of information are essential to inform community decisions about the management of feral taxa such as the cane toad in Australia.     

Geographical range,heat tolerance and invasion success in aquatic species

Species with broader geographical ranges are expected to be ecological generalists, while species with higher heat tolerances may be relatively competitive at more extreme and increasing temperatures. Thus, both traits are expected to relate to increased survival during transport to new regions of the globe, and once there, establishment and spread. Here, we explore these expectations using datasets of latitudinal range breadth and heat tolerance in freshwater and marine invertebrates and fishes. After accounting for the latitude and hemisphere of each species’ native range, we find that species introduced to freshwater systems have broader geographical ranges in comparison to native species. Moreover, introduced species are more heat tolerant than related native species collected from the same habitats. We further test for differences in range breadth and heat tolerance in relation to invasion success by comparing species that have established geographically restricted versus extensive introduced distributions. We find that geographical range size is positively related to invasion success in freshwater species only. However, heat tolerance is implicated as a trait correlated to widespread occurrence of introduced populations in both freshwater and marine systems. Our results emphasize the importance of formal risk assessments before moving heat tolerant species to novel locations.     

Modelling species distributions without using species distributions: the cane toad in Australia under current and future climates

Accurate predictions of the potential distribution of range-shifting species are required for effective management of invasive species, and for assessments of the impact of climate change on native species. Range-shifting species pose a challenge for traditional correlative approaches to range prediction, often requiring the extrapolation of complex statistical associations into novel environmental space. Here we take an alternative approach that does not use species occurrence data, but instead captures the fundamental niche of a species by mechanistically linking key organismal traits with spatial data using biophysical models. We demonstrate this approach with a major invasive species, the cane toad Bufo marinus in Australia, assessing the direct climatic constraints on its ability to move, survive, and reproduce. We show that the current range can be explained by thermal constraints on the locomotor potential of the adult stage together with limitations on the availability of water for the larval stage. Our analysis provides a framework for biologically grounded predictions of the potential for cane toads to expand their range under current and future climate scenarios. More generally, by quantifying spatial variation in physiological constraints on an organism, trait-based approaches can be used to investigate the range-limits of any species. Assessments of spatial variation in the physiological constraints on an organism may also provide a mechanistic basis for forecasting the rate of range expansion and for understanding a species' potential to evolve at range-edges. Mechanistic approaches thus have broad application to process-based ecological and evolutionary models of range-shift.     

A native dasyurid predator (common planigale,Planigale maculata) rapidly learns to avoid a toxic invader

Abstract Interactions between invasive species and native fauna afford a unique opportunity to examine interspecific encounters as they first occur, without the complications introduced by coevolution. In northern Australia, the continuing invasion of the highly toxic cane toad Bufo marinus poses a threat to many frog‐eating predators. Can predators learn to distinguish the novel toxic prey item from native prey (and thus, avoid being poisoned), or are longer‐term genetically based changes to attack behaviour needed before predators can coexist with toads? To predict the short‐term impact of cane toads on native predators, we need to know the proportion of individuals that will attack toads, the proportion surviving the encounter, and whether surviving predators learn to avoid toads. We quantified these traits in a dasyurid (common planigale, Planigale maculata) that inhabits tropical floodplains across northern Australia. Although 90% of naïve planigales attacked cane toads, 83% of these animals survived because they either rejected the toad unharmed, or killed and consumed the prey snout‐first (thereby avoiding the toxin‐laden parotoid glands). Most planigales showed one‐trial learning and subsequently refused to attack cane toads for long time periods (up to 28 days). Toad‐exposed planigales also avoided native frogs for up to 9 days, thereby providing an immediate benefit to native anurans. However, the predators gradually learnt to use chemical cues to discriminate between frogs and toads. Collectively, our results suggest that generalist predators can learn to distinguish and avoid novel toxic prey very rapidly – and hence, that small dasyurid predators can rapidly adapt to the cane toad invasion. Indeed, it may be feasible to teach especially vulnerable predators to avoid cane toads before the toads invade, by deploying low‐toxicity baits that stimulate taste‐aversion learning.     

Interacting biocontrol programmes: invasive cane toads reduce rates of breakdown of cowpats by dung beetles

Ecological interactions among invasive species can affect not only the success of the invaders, but also their impact on ecosystems in the invaded range. In Australia, both dung beetles (subfamily Scarabaeinae) and cane toads (Rhinella marina) were introduced for biocontrol: the beetles to break down bovine faeces piles (cowpats) that otherwise accumulate and reduce pasture productivity, and the cane toad to consume scarab beetles that eat sugarcane and thus reduce sugar production. The dung beetles have been a success, whereas the toads have been a failure. Our experimental studies show that as well as impacting native fauna directly, cane toads reduce the rate of cowpat breakdown by consuming dung beetles. In the laboratory, dehydrated toads actively sought out cowpats based on scent cues, and in field enclosures, the presence of a cane toad significantly reduced rates of cowpat decomposition. Although toads have benefited from agricultural activities, their spread across Australia likely has reduced the effectiveness of one of the most successful biocontrol programmes ever conducted in that continent.     

The Interacting Effects of Ungulate Hoofprints and Predatory Native Ants on Metamorph Cane Toads in Tropical Australia

Many invasive species exploit the disturbed habitats created by human activities. Understanding the effects of habitat disturbance on invasion success, and how disturbance interacts with other factors (such as biotic resistance to the invaders from the native fauna) may suggest new ways to reduce invader viability. In tropical Australia, commercial livestock production can facilitate invasion by the cane toad (Rhinella marina), because hoofprints left by cattle and horses around waterbody margins provide distinctive (cool, moist) microhabitats; nevertheless the same microhabitat can inhibit the success of cane toads by increasing the risks of predation or drowning. Metamorph cane toads actively select hoofprints as retreat-sites to escape dangerous thermal and hydric conditions in the surrounding landscape. However, hoofprint geometry is important: in hoofprints with steep sides the young toads are more likely to be attacked by predatory ants (Iridomyrmex reburrus) and are more likely to drown following heavy rain. Thus, anthropogenic changes to the landscape interact with predation by native taxa to affect the ability of cane toads in this vulnerable life-history stage to thrive in the harsh abiotic conditions of tropical Australia.     

School for Skinks: Can Conditioned Taste Aversion Enable Bluetongue Lizards (Tiliqua scincoides) to Avoid Toxic Cane Toads (Rhinella marina) as Prey?

The invasion of cane toads (Rhinella marina) through Australia imperils native predators that are killed if they consume these toxic anurans. The magnitude of impact depends upon the predators’ capacity for aversion learning: toad impact is lower if predators can learn not to attack toads. In laboratory trials, we assessed whether bluetongue lizards (Tiliqua scincoides) – a species under severe threat from toads – are capable of learned taste aversion and whether we can facilitate that learning by exposing lizards to toad tissue combined with a nausea‐inducing chemical (lithium chloride). Captive bluetongues rapidly learned to avoid the ‘unpalatable’ food. Taste aversion also developed (albeit less strongly) in response to meals of minced cane toad alone. Our data suggest that taste aversion learning may help bluetongue lizards survive the onslaught of cane toads, but that many encounters will be fatal because the toxin content of toads is so high relative to lizard tolerance of those toxins. Thus, baiting with nausea‐inducing (but non‐lethal) toad products might provide a feasible management option to reduce the impact of cane toad invasion on these native predators.     

The ecological impact of invasive cane toads (Bufo marinus) in Australia

Although invasive species are viewed as major threats to ecosystems worldwide, few such species have been studied in enough detail to identify the pathways, magnitudes, and timescales of their impact on native fauna. One of the most intensively studied invasive taxa in this respect is the cane toad (Bufo marinus), which was introduced to Australia in 1935. A review of these studies suggests that a single pathway-lethal toxic ingestion of toads by frog-eating predators-is the major mechanism of impact, but that the magnitude of impact varies dramatically among predator taxa, as well as through space and time. Populations of large predators (e.g., varanid and scincid lizards, elapid snakes, freshwater crocodiles, and dasyurid marsupials) may be imperilled by toad invasion, but impacts vary spatially even within the same predator species. Some of the taxa severely impacted by toad invasion recover within a few decades, via aversion learning and longer-term adaptive changes. No native species have gone extinct as a result of toad invasion, and many native taxa widely imagined to be at risk are not affected, largely as a result of their physiological ability to tolerate toad toxins (e.g., as found in many birds and rodents), as well as the reluctance of many native anuran-eating predators to consume toads, either innately or as a learned response. Indirect effects of cane toads as mediated through trophic webs are likely as important as direct effects, but they are more difficult to study. Overall, some Australian native species (mostly large predators) have declined due to cane toads; others, especially species formerly consumed by those predators, have benefited. For yet others, effects have been minor or have been mediated indirectly rather than through direct interactions with the invasive toads. Factors that increase a predator's vulnerability to toad invasion include habitat overlap with toads, anurophagy, large body size, inability to develop rapid behavioral aversion to toads as prey items, and physiological vulnerability to bufotoxins as a result of a lack of coevolutionary history of exposure to other bufonid taxa.     

What is the potential of spread in invasive bryophytes?

Although the number of invasive bryophytes is much lower than that of higher plants, they threaten habitats that are often species rich and of high conservation relevance. Their potential of spread has, however, never been determined. Here, we assess whether the three most invasive bryophyte species shifted their niche during the invasion process and whether the extent of the study area defined to calibrate the model (geographic background, GB) affects model transferability. We then determine whether ecological niche models (ENMs) developed in their native range can be projected in other areas to assess their invasive potential. The macroclimatic niches of Campylopus introflexus, Orthodontium lineare and Lophocolea semiteres were compared in their native range (Southern Hemisphere) and in their invasion range (Northern Hemisphere) using ordination techniques. ENMs from an ensemble model were calibrated in the native range and projected onto the Northern Hemisphere using different GBs. No evidence for niche expansion in the invaded range was found and the species occur in the invaded range under climate conditions that are similar to those in the native range. The performance of the models to predict occurrences in the invaded range increased with the extent of the GB. The potential range of all species included entire regions on continents where they are still absent. The expansion of the investigated species appears to be constrained by climate conditions that are similar to those currently prevailing in their native range, which is consistent with our failure to demonstrate macroclimatic niche shift in the invaded range. The use of large GBs is recommended in such vagile organisms with large, disjunct distributions. The models indicated that invasive bryophyte species might become a threat in central and eastern Europe, North America and eastern Asia if accidentally introduced or naturally dispersed.     

Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter

The classical approach to predicting the geographical extent of species invasions consists of training models in the native range and projecting them in distinct, potentially invasible areas. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this approach could be hampered by a change of the realized climatic niche, allowing invasive species to spread into habitats in the invaded ranges that are climatically distinct from those occupied in the native range. We propose an alternative approach that involves fitting models with pooled data from all ranges. We show that this pooled approach improves prediction of the extent of invasion of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa) in North America on models based solely on the European native range. Furthermore, it performs equally well on models based on the invaded range, while ensuring the inclusion of areas with similar climate to the European niche, where the species is likely to spread further. We then compare projections from these models for 2080 under a severe climate warming scenario. Projections from the pooled models show fewer areas of intermediate climatic suitability than projections from the native or invaded range models, suggesting a better consensus among modelling techniques and reduced uncertainty.