Trends in mortality statistics in England and Wales with particular reference to AIDS from 1984 to April 1987

Death certification should be able to provide accurate data on the number of deaths due to AIDS as a basis for predicting future deaths from the syndrome. Trends in deaths from other causes may identify conditions that have not been recognised to be associated with HIV infection. Mortality statistics with reference to AIDS in England and Wales were completed from death certificates. Increases in deaths from selected causes likely to be associated with AIDS or HIV infection suggested that in some patients with HIV infection, AIDS was not stated on the death certificate or subsequently notified by the doctor who signed the certificate. From calculations of excess deaths between the beginning of 1985 and the end of April 1987, compared with 1984 at least 495 deaths possibly associated with HIV infection were estimated to have occurred among men aged 15-54 during that period. In 261 AIDS or HIV infection was stated on the original or amended death entry as the cause of death, and of these 198 were included in the estimated number of excess deaths.Accurate notification of the underlying cause of death and associated diseases is required for the precise monitoring of trends in mortality from AIDS and possible identification of unrecognised conditions associated with HIV infection.     

Impact of HIV infection on mortality in young men in a London health authority.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the number of deaths attributable to HIV infection among men aged 15-64 in a geographically defined population in the United Kingdom. DESIGN--Retrospective review of death certificates and linkage with local and national HIV and AIDS surveillance data. SETTING--Riverside District Health Authority, London. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Numbers of deaths attributed to HIV infection in male residents of Riverside aged 15-64 and 15-44 over a six month period. Proportion of attributed deaths were (i) identified from death certificates by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys as being due to HIV infection and (ii) reported as cases of AIDS or HIV related deaths to the Public Health Laboratory Service Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre. RESULTS--34 of 213 (16%) deaths in men aged 15-64 and 27 of 69 (39%) deaths in men aged 15-44 were attributed to HIV infection. Six of 33 (18%) attributed deaths were identified by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys and 32/34 (94%) were reported to the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre. CONCLUSIONS--HIV infection was the leading cause of death in male residents of Riverside aged 15-44 and the third commonest cause of death in those aged 15-64. Most individuals dying of known HIV infection were reported to the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre but identification of the true cause of death from the process of death certification was poor. Measures to improve the certification of HIV and AIDS or the use of AIDS surveillance information correctly to code the cause of death needs to be considered to ensure that the true impact of HIV infection is reflected in routine mortality statistics.     

Estimating the size of the HIV epidemic by using mortality data

Evidence that more people are dying as a result of HIV infection than is reflected by the number of deaths among reported cases meeting the WHO definition of AIDS is derived from mortality data. Ninety-five causes of death likely to be associated with HIV infection were selected. Standardized mortality ratios due to these causes increased for single men aged 15-54 years from 100 in 1984 to 118 in 1987. The age, sex, marital status, temporal and geographic distribution of these excess deaths suggest that they are HIV-associated. It is estimated that 58% of excess deaths due to HIV-related causes were among cases reported to the CDSC AIDS Surveillance Programme in 1987. Some of these deaths may have been among HIV-positive people who did not meet the WHO definition at the time of death. There is a need for surveillance to be extended to include HIV-positive people who die before meeting the WHO definition if the full extent of the HIV epidemic is to be identified.     

Incidence of insulin dependent diabetes in England: a study in the Oxford region, 1985-6.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the incidence of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus up to the age of 21 in a geographically defined population in England with independent validation of completeness of case ascertainment. DESIGN--Prospective registration of newly diagnosed cases supplemented by centralised hospital discharge records and death certificates. Validation of ascertainment from general practitioners. SETTING--Oxford Regional Health Authority area (population 2.4 million). PATIENTS--All patients with insulin dependent diabetes diagnosed below age 21 during 1985-6 and resident in the region at the time of diagnosis. INTERVENTIONS--None. END POINT--Validation of a method of case ascertainment for assessing temporal variation in incidence of insulin dependent diabetes. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--The overall yearly incidence of newly diagnosed insulin dependent diabetes mellitus in people under 21 was 15.6 cases/100,000 (95% confidence interval 13.6 to 17.6). Among males the incidence was 16.8 cases (14.0 to 19.7)/100,000 and among females 14.3 cases (11.6 to 17.1)/100,000. The highest incidence, in the 10-14 year age group, was 26.4 (20.9 to 31.8) new cases/100,000 population yearly. Case ascertainment was greater than 95%. CONCLUSIONS--The incidence of insulin dependent diabetes in England is considerably higher than reported from large scale studies. It is consistent with described patterns of geographical variation. The figures provide a baseline for assessing temporal change.     

Death certification and epidemiological research. Medical Services Study Group of the Royal College of Physicians of London.

The cause of death shown on 191 death certificates was compared with the cause indicated by the hospital case notes, the consultants'' opinions, and the necropsy findings. All 191 deaths occurred among medical hospital patients aged under 50. In 39 cases there was a major discrepancy between the two sources over the cause of death and in another 54 ther was a minor but epidemiologically important difference. Death certificates are not primarily intended for epidemiological research, but researchers often rely on them. This and other studies have shown, however, that death certificates are often inaccurate records of the cause of death--even coroner''s certificates issued after a coroner''s necropsy. The accuracy of death certificates might be improved if coroners consulted clinicians more closely and if senior hospital staff completed hospital death certificates.     

The completeness and timeliness of cancer registration and the implications for measuring cancer burden

BackgroundPopulation based cancer registration provides a critical role in disease surveillance in terms of incidence, survival, cancer cluster investigations and prevalence trends, and therefore high levels of completeness and timeliness are required. This study estimates completeness and variation between early and late registrations in the N. Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR) and assesses the implications for reporting cancer incidence and for registry-based research.MethodsTwo main approaches assessed completeness. For the period 2010–2012, incidence reported in the first year of data publication was compared to incidence reported in subsequent years until 2015. Demographic characteristics and survival of incident cases ascertained before the first publication year were compared to those ascertained in subsequent years. The flow method approach was used to estimate completeness annually after the incident year.ResultsOverall incidence for all cancers increased between the first year of data publication and subsequent years up to 2015, irrespective of year of diagnosis. Late registrations had poorer survival. The flow method approach estimated the completeness of case ascertainment of NICR data to be 96% complete at five years for all cancers combined.ConclusionThe estimated completeness levels for the NICR are comparable to other high quality cancer registries internationally. While data timeliness has little impact on incidence estimates, delays in registration may have implications for specific research studies into incidence and survival. This means that improvements in the timeliness of reporting should be a target for all registries but not at the expense of completeness.     

Problems in determining the incidence of cervical cancer.

Since cancer registries have different recording practices, the incidence rates that they report must be compared with caution. Indexes of reliability of recording indicated that in 1971 the reported incidence of cervical cancer in Ontario was too high. In 1971 Ontario used a method of passive reporting of cancer cases: the Ontario Cancer Registry linked hospital reports, death certificates and reports from the Ontario Cancer Treatment and Research Foundation''s treatment centres to produce a single record for each case. Pathological confirmation was requested for cases thus recorded by the registry. In 26% of cases a diagnosis other than cervical cancer was indicated. With these cases omitted, the incidence rate became 15.1/100 000, as opposed to the 20.5/100 000 reported by the registry.     

Changing disease patterns in patients with AIDS in a referral centre in the United Kingdom: the changing face of AIDS.

OBJECTIVE--To study the changes in morbidity, mortality, and survival patterns in a population of patients with AIDS in the United Kingdom from 1982 to 1989. DESIGN--A retrospective analysis of inpatient and outpatient records of patients with AIDS. SUBJECTS--347 Patients with AIDS, predominantly homosexual or bisexual men. SETTING--Departments of immunology and genitourinary medicine, St Mary''s Hospital, London. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Presenting diagnosis of AIDS, occurrence of other opportunist diseases, cause of death, and survival since AIDS was diagnosed, in particular for those patients with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia or Kaposi''s sarcoma. RESULTS--The overall proportion of patients who developed P carinii pneumonia dropped from 56% (20/36) in 1984 to 24% (46/194) in 1989, although it has remained the index diagnosis in about half of new patients. Kaposi''s sarcoma has decreased as index diagnosis from 30% (20/67) to 20% (15/74) over the same period, though the prevalence has remained constant at around 35%. P carinii pneumonia accounted for 46% (16/35) of known causes of death in 1986 but only 3% (1/31) in 1989. Conversely, deaths due to Kaposi''s sarcoma rose from 14% (1/7) to 32% (10/31) between 1984 and 1989. Lymphoma accounted for an increased proportion of deaths among these patients with 16% (5/31) of deaths in 1989. Their median survival increased from 10 months in 1984-6 to 20 months in 1987. CONCLUSIONS--The changing patterns of disease in patients with AIDS have important implications both for health care provision and future medical research. Medical and nursing provision must be made for the increased morbidity of these diseases and the increased survival of these patients. Research should now be directed towards developing effective treatments for the opportunist infections which are currently more difficult to treat, the secondary malignancies of AIDS, as well as more effective immunorestorative treatments. Future changes in disease patterns must be recognised at an early stage so that resources can be adequately planned and allocated.     

Influence of changing travel patterns on child death rates from injury: trend analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in child mortality from unintentional injury between 1985 and 1992 and to find how changes in modes of travel contributed to these trends. DESIGN: Poisson regression modelling using data from death certificates, censuses, and national travel surveys. SETTING: England and Wales. SUBJECTS: Resident children aged 0-14. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths from unintentional injury and poisoning. RESULTS: Child deaths from injury declined by 34% (95% confidence interval 28% to 40%) per 100,000 population between 1985 and 1992. Substantial decreases in each of the leading causes of death from injury contributed to this overall decline. On average, children walked and cycled less distance and travelled substantially more miles by car in 1992 compared with 1985. Deaths from road traffic accidents declined for pedestrians by 24% per mile walked and for cyclists by 20% per mile cycled, substantially less than the declines per 100,000 population of 37% and 38% respectively. In contrast, deaths of occupants of motor vehicles declined by 42% per mile travelled by car compared with a 21% decline per 100,000 population. CONCLUSIONS: If trends in child mortality from injury continue the government''s target to reduce the rate by 33% by the year 2005 will be achieved. A substantial proportion of the decline in pedestrian traffic and pedal cycling deaths, however, seems to have been achieved at the expense of children''s walking and cycling activities. Changes in travel patterns may exact a considerable price in terms of future health problems.     

Mortality rates in subjects with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders and their siblings

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to estimate the mortality rate in subjects with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) and their siblings whose FASD status was unknown. METHODS: We used the state FASD Registry to link subjects with FASD to a North Dakota birth certificate. We were able to link 304 of 486 cases (63%). We used the birth certificates to identify the mother and children born to the mother (siblings). We then searched for death certificates for both the FASD cases and their siblings. We then calculated the annual and age‐adjusted mortality rates for the siblings of the Registry cases and compared them with mortality rates from North Dakota. RESULTS: The FASD case mortality rate was 2.4%, with a 4.5% mortality rate for their sibings, accounting for 14% of all deaths when compared to the North Dakota residents matched by age and year of death. The sibling deaths accounted for 21.5% of all cause mortality matched by age and year of death. The age‐standardized mortality ratios were 4.9 for the FASD cases and 2.6 for their siblings whose FASD status was unknown. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for FASD cases and their siblings were increased and represent a substantial proportion of all cause mortality in North Dakota. Prevention of FASD may be a useful strategy to decrease mortality. Birth Defects Research (Part A), 2008. © 2008 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Causes of death and case fatality rates among infants with down syndrome in metropolitan Atlanta

BACKGROUND: There is limited population-based information on the extent of underreporting of congenital heart defects (CHD) as a cause of death among infants with Down syndrome (DS) and on the variation in case fatality by presence of CHD and age at death. METHODS: Using data from the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program (MACDP), we identified infants with DS born 1979-2003. We used data from Georgia death certificates and the National Death Index to determine vital status and identify causes of death. Using MACDP records as a reference, we calculated the sensitivity and positive predictive value of reports of CHD as any cause of death or contributing condition in death certificates. We calculated race-specific case fatality rate by infant's age at death and presence of CHD. RESULTS: CHD was the most frequently reported cause of death from death certificates; however, a review of causes of death and birth defects data indicated a potentially greater impact of CHD among DS infant deaths than could be determined from the reported cause of death. The case fatality rate among infants with DS was significantly higher among blacks than whites, with the greatest racial disparity observed among infants without CHD who died in the post-neonatal period. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts are needed to improve reporting of causes of death related to CHD among infants with DS that would allow for a clearer assessment of determinants of case fatality among DS infants and identification of possible ways to reduce the racial disparities.     

Autopsy in California

From information complied from death certificates registered in 1952 and 1962 an examination was made of California''s autopsy performance and the characteristics of deaths in which autopsy was done. The data indicated that California had an overall autopsy rate of 37 per cent of total deaths in 1962, probably higher than any other state. In the decade reviewed, there was a 62 per cent absolute increase in autopsies and a 7 per cent increase relative to total deaths.Substantial increases in the proportion of deaths in which autopsy was done were found for physician-certified deaths in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties and for coroner-certified deaths in nonmetropolitan counties. For all but two of forty-five selected natural causes of death there were increases in the proportion of deaths in which autopsy was done.Seventy per cent of deaths occurred in some type of facility. About one-half of all deaths occurred in general hospitals, and autopsy was done in 42 per cent of such cases.The dual factors of a high autopsy rate and overrepresentation of deaths brought to autopsy in white males, ages 35-64, support the validity of a reported decline in California''s death rate for arteriosclerotic heart disease.     

Deaths From Bites and Stings of Venomous Animals

Data abstracted from 34 death certificates indicate that the three venomous animal groups most often responsible for human deaths in California from 1960 through 1976 were Hymenoptera (bees, wasps, ants and the like) (56 percent), snakes (35 percent) and spiders (6 percent). An average incidence of 2.0 deaths per year occurred during these 17 years, or an average death rate of 0.01 per 100,000 population per year. Nearly three times more males than females died of venomous animal bites and stings. Half of the deaths from venomous snake bites occurred in children younger than 5 years of age. Susceptible persons 40 years or older appeared to be particularly vulnerable to hymenopterous insect stings and often quickly died of anaphylaxis. Fatal encounters with venomous animals occurred more often around the home than at places of employment or during recreational activities. Deaths resulting from spider bites are rare in California but many bites are reported. Medical practitioners are urged to seek professional assistance in identifying offending animals causing human discomfort and to use these animals'' scientific names on death certificates and in journal articles.     

Reliability of recording uterine cancer in death certification in France and age-specific proportions of deaths from cervix and corpus uteri

French uterine cancer recordings in death certificates include 60% of "uterine cancer, Not Otherwise Specified (NOS)"; this hampers the estimation of mortalities from cervix and corpus uteri cancers. The aims of this work were to study the reliability of uterine cancer recordings in death certificates using a case matching with cancer registries and estimate age-specific proportions of deaths from cervix and corpus uteri cancers among all uterine cancer deaths by a statistical approach that uses incidence and survival data. Deaths from uterine cancer between 1989 and 2001 were extracted from the French National database of causes of death and case-to-case matched to women diagnosed with uterine cancer between 1989 and 1997 in 8 cancer registries. Registry data were considered as "gold-standard". Among the 1825 matched deaths, cancer registries recorded 830 cervix and 995 corpus uteri cancers. In death certificates, 5% and 40% of "true" cervix cancers were respectively coded "corpus" and "uterus, NOS" and 5% and 59% of "true" corpus cancers respectively coded "cervix" and "uterus, NOS". Miscoding cervix cancers was more frequent at advanced ages at death and in deaths at home or in small urban areas. Miscoding corpus cancers was more frequent in deaths at home or in small urban areas. From the statistical method, the estimated proportion of deaths from cervix cancer among all uterine cancer deaths was higher than 95% in women aged 30-40 years old but declined to 35% in women older than 70 years. The study clarifies the reason for poor encoding of uterus cancer mortality and refines the estimation of mortalities from cervix and corpus uteri cancers allowing future studies on the efficacy of cervical cancer screening.     

Problems in using birth certificate files in the capture-recapture model to estimate the completeness of case ascertainment in a population-based birth defects registry in New York State

BACKGROUND: The limitations and underlying assumptions of the capture-recapture methods have hindered their application in epidemiological settings, especially in evaluating the completeness of birth defects registries. This study explored the possibility of using birth certificates as the secondary data source in a simple two-source capture-recapture model to estimate the completeness of case ascertainment of the Congenital Malformations Registry (CMR) for selected major birth defects. METHODS: The CMR and the birth certificates were used as the primary and secondary sources, respectively. Children who were born in 1996-2001 and had selected major birth defects were identified from the two sources. The accuracy of the diagnoses was examined by comparing the individual birth defect categories of the children from the two sources. RESULTS: Discrepancies in birth defect categories in the two data sources and false positives in the birth certificates were the major problems encountered in estimating the completeness of the CMR using the simple two-source capture-recapture method. The estimated completeness for selected major birth defects was only about 71%. Stratified analyses resulted in relatively high estimated completeness for oral clefts (90%) and Down syndrome (88%). CONCLUSIONS Although the birth certificate data was not a good source for estimating the completeness of case ascertainment of the CMR using capture-recapture methods, the analyses provided reasonable estimates for some conditions that were relatively easy to identify and diagnose at birth, such as oral clefts and Down syndrome.     

AIDS Prevention and Control in Japan

Surveillance for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Japan started in September 1984 and in February 1987 was extended to seropositive carriers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibodies. A total of 2,000 hospitals and clinics throughout the country have actively participated in the surveillance. An educational program for health care workers, including physicians, was initiated in July 1985 by issuing a series of government memoranda and distributing pamphlets and posters. Counseling programs for people concerned about AIDS and laboratory support to provide screening services have been developed. Laboratories that can also perform confirmatory tests will be established shortly. The screening of all donated blood was established in November 1986.Education programs for the public have been conducted mainly through the production and distribution of various materials and pamphlets. Research has been focused primarily on diagnosis and treatment, with international cooperation emphasized. A new act of legislation has been proposed in the Parliament that will require mandatory reporting of cases of AIDS and HIV infection with confidentiality preserved. Further debate may be needed to reach national consensus on this issue. The proposed law will not include provisions that would affect international travelers, foreign students or immigrants.     

Organ donation from intensive care units in England.

OBJECTIVE--To audit all deaths in intensive care units (excepting coronary care only and neonatal intensive care units) in England to assess potential for organ procurement. DESIGN--An audit in which 14 regional health authorities and London special health authorities each designated a regional liaison officer to identify intensive care units and liaise with Department of Health and the Medical Research Council''s biostatistics unit in distribution, return, and checking of audit forms. Audit took place from 1 January to 31 March 1989 and will continue to 31 December 1990. SETTING--278 Intensive care units in England. PARTICIPANTS--Colleagues in intensive care units (doctors, nurses, coordinators, and others), who completed serially numbered audit forms for all patients who died in intensive care. RESULTS--The estimated number of deaths in intensive care units was 3085, and validated audit forms were received for 2853 deaths (92%). Brain stem death was a possible diagnosis in only 407 (14%) patients (about 1700 cases a year) and was confirmed in 282 (10%) patients (an estimated 1200 cases a year). Half the patients (95% confidence interval 45% to 57%) in whom brain stem death was confirmed became actual donors of solid organs. Tests for brain stem death were not performed in 106 (26%) of 407 patients with brain stem death as a possible diagnosis, and general medical contraindication to organ donation was recorded for 48 (17%) of 282 patients who fulfilled brain stem death criteria before cessation of heart beat. The criteria were fulfilled before cessation of heart beat and in the absence of any general medical contraindication to organ donation in 234 patients, 8% of those dying in intensive care (an estimated 1000 cases a year). Consent for organ donation was given in 152 (70%) of 218 cases (64% to 76%) when the possibility of organ donation was suggested to relatives. In only 14 out of 232 families (6%; 3% to 9%) was there no discussion of organ donation with relatives. Corneal suitability was recorded as "not known" in a high proportion (1271; 45%) of all deaths and intensive care units reported only 123 corneal donors (4% of all audited deaths). CONCLUSION--When brain stem death is a possible diagnosis tests should always be carried out for confirmation. Early referral to the transplant team or coordinator should occur in all cases of brain stem death to check contraindications to organ donation. There should be increased use of asystolic kidney donation, and patients should be routinely assessed for suitability for corneal donation. Finally, more publicity and education are necessary to promote consent.     

Causes of Death among AIDS Patients after Introduction of Free Combination Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) in Three Chinese Provinces, 2010–2011

Introduction

Although AIDS-related deaths have had significant economic and social impact following an increased disease burden internationally, few studies have evaluated the cause of AIDS-related deaths among patients with AIDS on combination anti-retroviral therapy (cART) in China. This study examines the causes of death among AIDS-patients in China and uses a methodology to increase data accuracy compared to the previous studies on AIDS-related mortality in China, that have taken the reported cause of death in the National HIV Registry at face-value.

Methods

Death certificates/medical records were examined and a cross-sectional survey was conducted in three provinces to verify the causes of death among AIDS patients who died between January 1, 2010 and June 30, 2011. Chi-square analysis was conducted to examine the categorical variables by causes of death and by ART status. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to evaluate factors associated with AIDS-related death versus non-AIDS related death.

Results

This study used a sample of 1,109 subjects. The average age at death was 44.5 years. AIDS-related deaths were significantly higher than non-AIDS and injury-related deaths. In the sample, 41.9% (465/1109) were deceased within a year of HIV diagnosis and 52.7% (584/1109) of the deceased AIDS patients were not on cART. For AIDS-related deaths (n = 798), statistically significant factors included CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ at the time of cART initiation (AOR 1.94, 95%CI 1.24–3.05), ART naïve (AOR 1.69, 95%CI 1.09–2.61; p = 0.019) and age <39 years (AOR 2.96, 95%CI 1.77–4.96).

Conclusion

For the AIDS patients that were deceased, only those who initiated cART while at a CD4 count ≥200 cells/mm3 were less likely to die from AIDS-related causes compared to those who didn’t initiate ART at all.     

Rising incidence of insulin dependent diabetes in children aged under 5 years in the Oxford region: time trend analysis. The Bart's-Oxford Study Group.

OBJECTIVES: To monitor incidence of insulin dependent diabetes in children in Oxford health region since 1985, and to look for any evidence of disproportionate increase in children aged under 5. DESIGN: Primary ascertainment of cases of childhood diabetes was by prospective registration of all patients with insulin dependent diabetes diagnosed before age 15 years between 1985 and 1996 and resident in Oxford region at time of diagnosis. This was supplemented by examination of centralised hospital discharge records and death certificates. Secondary case ascertainment was by postal surveys of general practitioners in 1987 and 1996. SETTING: Area formerly administered by Oxford Regional Health Authority. SUBJECTS: 1037 children presenting with insulin dependent diabetes under age of 15 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of insulin dependent diabetes in children aged 0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years during 1985-95. RESULTS: Overall incidence of diabetes in children aged 0-15 was 18.6 cases/100000/year and showed an annual increase of 4% from 1985 to 1996. This was mainly due to a rapid increase in children aged 0-4 years, in whom there was an annual increase of 11% (95% confidence interval 6% to 15%, P < 0.0001), while the annual increase in those aged 5-9 was 4% (0 to 7%, P = 0.05) and in those aged 10-14 was 1% (-2% to 4%, P = 0.55). CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of insulin dependent diabetes in children aged under 5 years has risen markedly in the Oxford region over the past decade. The cause of the increase is unknown, but environmental influences encountered before birth or in early postnatal life are likely to be responsible.