The observed relationship between the occurrence of acute radiation effects and leukemia mortality among A-bomb survivors

In an analysis of a follow-up study of a fixed population of 73,330 atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the slope of an estimated dose response between ionizing radiation and leukemia mortality was found to be steeper (P less than 0.002), by a factor of 2.4, among those who reported epilation within 60 days of the bombings, compared to those who did not experience this sign of acute radiation exposure. The strength of this empirical finding as evidence of biological association in individual radiosensitivity for these two end points is studied here. The major factor complicating the interpretation of this finding as evidence of such an association is the degree of imprecision of the radiation dosimetry system used in assignment of radiation doses to the A-bomb survivors. Using models recently suggested for dealing with dosimetry errors in epidemiological analysis of the A-bomb survivor data, the sensitivity of the apparent association between leukemia mortality and severe epilation to the assumed level of dosimetry error is investigated.     

Enhanced intestinal tumor multiplicity and grade in vivo after HZE exposure: mouse models for space radiation risk estimates

Carcinogenesis induced by space radiation is considered a major risk factor in manned interplanetary and other extended missions. The models presently used to estimate the risk for cancer induction following deep space radiation exposure are based on data from A-bomb survivor cohorts and do not account for important biological differences existing between high-linear energy transfer (LET) and low-LET-induced DNA damage. High-energy and charge (HZE) radiation, the main component of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), causes highly complex DNA damage compared to low-LET radiation, which may lead to increased frequency of chromosomal rearrangements, and contribute to carcinogenic risk in astronauts. Gastrointestinal (GI) tumors are frequent in the United States, and colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer accounting for 10% of all cancer deaths. On the basis of the aforementioned epidemiological observations and the frequency of spontaneous precancerous GI lesions in the general population, even a modest increase in incidence by space radiation exposure could have a significant effect on health risk estimates for future manned space flights. Ground-based research is necessary to reduce the uncertainties associated with projected cancer risk estimates and to gain insights into molecular mechanisms involved in space-induced carcinogenesis. We investigated in vivo differential effects of γ-rays and HZE ions on intestinal tumorigenesis using two different murine models, ApcMin/+ and Apc1638N/+. We showed that γ- and/or HZE exposure significantly enhances development and progression of intestinal tumors in a mutant-line-specific manner, and identified suitable models for in vivo studies of space radiation–induced intestinal tumorigenesis.     

A systems-based mathematical modelling framework for investigating the effect of drugs on solid tumours

Background and Purpose

Most information on the dose-response of radiation-induced cancer is derived from data on the A-bomb survivors. Since, for radiation protection purposes, the dose span of main interest is between zero and one Gy, the analysis of the A-bomb survivors is usually focused on this range. However, estimates of cancer risk for doses larger than one Gy are becoming more important for radiotherapy patients. Therefore in this work, emphasis is placed on doses relevant for radiotherapy with respect to radiation induced solid cancer.

Materials and methods

For various organs and tissues the analysis of cancer induction was extended by an attempted combination of the linear-no-threshold model from the A-bomb survivors in the low dose range and the cancer risk data of patients receiving radiotherapy for Hodgkin's disease in the high dose range. The data were fitted using organ equivalent dose (OED) calculated for a group of different dose-response models including a linear model, a model including fractionation, a bell-shaped model and a plateau-dose-response relationship.

Results

The quality of the applied fits shows that the linear model fits best colon, cervix and skin. All other organs are best fitted by the model including fractionation indicating that the repopulation/repair ability of tissue is neither 0 nor 100% but somewhere in between. Bone and soft tissue sarcoma were fitted well by all the models. In the low dose range beyond 1 Gy sarcoma risk is negligible. For increasing dose, sarcoma risk increases rapidly and reaches a plateau at around 30 Gy.

Conclusions

In this work OED for various organs was calculated for a linear, a bell-shaped, a plateau and a mixture between a bell-shaped and plateau dose-response relationship for typical treatment plans of Hodgkin's disease patients. The model parameters (α and R) were obtained by a fit of the dose-response relationships to these OED data and to the A-bomb survivors. For any three-dimensional inhomogenous dose distribution, cancer risk can be compared by computing OED using the coefficients obtained in this work.     

Analyses of combined mortality data on workers at the Hanford Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant

An important objective of studies of workers exposed occupationally to chronic low doses of ionizing radiation is to provide a direct assessment of health risks resulting from this exposure. This objective is most effectively accomplished by conducting combined analyses that allow evaluation of the totality of evidence from all study populations. In this paper, combined analyses of mortality in workers at the Hanford Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Rocky Flats Nuclear Weapons Plant are presented. These combined analyses provide no evidence of a correlation between radiation exposure and mortality from all cancer or from leukemia. Of 11 other specific types of cancer analyzed, multiple myeloma was the only cancer found to exhibit a statistically significant correlation with radiation exposure. Estimates of the excess risk of all cancer and of leukemia, based on the combined data, were negative. Upper confidence limits based on the combined data were lower than for any single population, and were similar to estimates obtained from recent analyses of A-bomb survivor data. These results strengthen support for the conclusion that estimates obtained through extrapolation from high-dose data do not seriously underestimate risks of low-dose exposure, but leave open the possibility that extrapolation may overestimate risks.     

Study of cognitive function among the Adult Health Study (AHS) population in Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Although neuropsychological dysfunction is found among A-bomb survivors exposed in utero as it is among patients who receive central nervous system radiotherapy, neuropsychological examinations have not been conducted on the survivors. Its prevalence may be increased as a result of the increased rate of strokes reported among those exposed to a high radiation dose. In this study, we examined the effects of radiation exposure on cognitive function among adult survivors in the Adult Health Study (AHS). The study subjects were men and women born prior to September 1932 who had undergone biennial examinations during the period 1992-1996 in Hiroshima or 1993-1998 in Nagasaki. We evaluated cognitive performance for 3,113 subjects with the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI), and we examined the relationship between cognitive performance and potentially related factors (sex, age, city where the subjects were exposed, years of education, and radiation dose). In contrast to exposure to radiotherapy, exposure to atomic bomb radiation had no apparent effect on cognitive function. Factors that did affect cognitive function were age, sex, city and years of education. Further investigation, including examination of other neurological functions, is required before a final conclusion regarding radiation-induced neurological dysfunction can be reached.     

Immunological responses of aging Japanese A-bomb survivors

Immune response parameters were studied on 1341 A-bomb survivors residing in Hiroshima, Japan. Mononuclear cells were isolated from venous blood and tested for interleukin-2 production; lymphocytes were purified and tested for natural killer (NK) cell activity and interferon (IFN) production; and serum was tested for IFN and circulating immune complex (CIC) levels. Statistical analyses were performed for each type of assay using a linear models procedure including sex, age at the time of the bomb, radiation exposure, all the interaction variables, and the categorical variable day-of-assay in the model. The findings showed that (1) none of the immunologic variables were significantly affected by radiation exposure; (2) NK activity and CIC levels were positively associated with age; and (3) NK activity was on average higher for males than females. The data exemplify the difficulty in reaching firm conclusions concerning associations with radiation exposure when the dependent variable exhibits a large degree of interindividual and day-of-assay variability.     

Radiation-related ophthalmological changes and aging among Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors: a reanalysis.

The relationship of ionizing radiation to the age-related ophthalmological findings of the 1978-1980 ophthalmological examination of A-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki has been reanalyzed using DS86 eye organ dose estimates. The main purpose of this reevaluation was to determine whether age and radiation exposure, as measured using the recently revised dosimetry information (DS86), have an additive, synergistic, or antagonistic effect. The data in this study are limited to axial opacities and posterior subcapsular changes, for which a definite radiation-induced effect has been observed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors. The best model fitting for axial opacities gives a significant positive effect for both linear dose and linear age-related regression coefficients and a significant negative effect for an interaction between radiation dose and age. Such a negative interaction implies an antagonistic effect in that the relative risks in relation to radiation exposure doses become smaller with an increase in age. On the other hand, the best-fitting relationship for posterior subcapsular changes suggested a linear-quadratic dose and linear age-related effect. The estimate of the quadratic dose coefficient shows a highly negative correlation with age, but the negative quadratic dose term is extremely small and is of little biological significance.     

Epidemiological studies of cataract risk at low to moderate radiation doses: (not) seeing is believing

The prevailing belief for some decades has been that human radiation-related cataract occurs only after relatively high doses; for instance, the ICRP estimates that brief exposures of at least 0.5-2 Sv are required to cause detectable lens opacities and 5 Sv for vision-impairing cataracts. For protracted exposures, the ICRP estimates the corresponding dose thresholds as 5 Sv and 8 Sv, respectively. However, several studies, especially in the last decade, indicate that radiation-associated opacities occur at much lower doses. Several studies suggest that medical or environmental radiation exposure to the lens confers risk of opacities at doses well under 1 Sv. Among Japanese A-bomb survivors, risks for cataracts necessitating lens surgery were seen at doses under 1 Gy. The confidence interval on the A-bomb dose threshold for cataract surgery prevalence indicated that the data are compatible with a dose threshold ranging from none up to only 0.8 Gy, similar to the dose threshold for minor opacities seen among Chernobyl clean-up workers with primarily protracted exposures. Findings from various studies indicate that radiation risk estimates are probably not due to confounding by other cataract risk factors and that risk is seen after both childhood and adult exposures. The recent data are instigating reassessments of guidelines by various radiation protection bodies regarding permissible levels of radiation to the eye. Among the future epidemiological research directions, the most important research need is for adequate studies of vision-impairing cataract after protracted radiation exposure.     

Experimental derivation of relative biological effectiveness of A-bomb neutrons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and implications for risk assessment

Epidemiological data on the health effects of A-bomb radiation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide the framework for setting limits for radiation risk and radiological protection. However, uncertainty remains in the equivalent dose, because it is generally believed that direct derivation of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons from the epidemiological data on the survivors is difficult. To solve this problem, an alternative approach has been taken. The RBE of polyenergetic neutrons was determined for chromosome aberration formation in human lymphocytes irradiated in vitro, compared with published data for tumor induction in experimental animals, and validated using epidemiological data from A-bomb survivors. The RBE of fission neutrons was dependent on dose but was independent of the energy spectrum. The same RBE regimen was observed for lymphocyte chromosome aberrations and tumors in mice and rats. Used as a weighting factor for A-bomb survivors, this RBE system was superior in eliminating the city difference in chromosome aberration frequencies and cancer mortality. The revision of the equivalent dose of A-bomb radiation using DS02 weighted by this RBE system reduces the cancer risk by a factor of 0.7 compared with the current estimates using DS86, with neutrons weighted by a constant RBE of 10.     

Solid cancer mortality associated with chronic external radiation exposure at the French atomic energy commission and nuclear fuel company

Studies of nuclear workers make it possible to directly quantify the risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure at low doses and low dose rates. Studies of the CEA (Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique) and AREVA Nuclear Cycle (AREVA NC) cohort, currently the most informative such group in France, describe the long-term risk to nuclear workers associated with external exposure. Our aim is to assess the risk of mortality from solid cancers among CEA and AREVA NC nuclear workers and its association with external radiation exposure. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated and internal Poisson regressions were conducted, controlling for the main confounding factors [sex, attained age, calendar period, company and socioeconomic status (SES)]. During the period 1968-2004, there were 2,035 solid cancers among the 36,769 CEA-AREVA NC workers. Cumulative external radiation exposure was assessed for the period 1950-2004, and the mean cumulative dose was 12.1 mSv. Mortality rates for all causes and all solid cancers were both significantly lower in this cohort than in the general population. A significant excess of deaths from pleural cancer, not associated with cumulative external dose, was observed, probably due to past asbestos exposure. We observed a significant excess of melanoma, also unassociated with dose. Although cumulative external dose was not associated with mortality from all solid cancers, the central estimated excess relative risk (ERR) per Sv of 0.46 for solid cancer mortality was higher than the 0.26 calculated for male Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors 50 years or older and exposed at the age of 30 years or older. The modification of our results after stratification for SES demonstrates the importance of this characteristic in occupational studies, because it makes it possible to take class-based lifestyle differences into account, at least partly. These results show the great potential of a further joint international study of nuclear workers, which should improve knowledge about the risks associated with chronic low doses and provide useful risk estimates for radiation protection.     

Effect of radiation exposure on survival after first solid cancer diagnosis in A-bomb survivors

BackgroundComparison of the estimated effect of atomic bomb radiation exposure on solid cancer incidence and solid cancer mortality in the RERF Life Span Study (LSS) reveals a difference in the magnitude and shape of the excess relative risk dose response. A possible contributing factor to this difference is pre-diagnosis radiation effect on post-diagnosis survival. Pre-diagnosis radiation exposure theoretically could influence post-diagnosis survival by affecting the genetic makeup and possibly aggressiveness of cancer, or by compromising tolerance for aggressive treatment for cancer.MethodsWe analyze the radiation effect on post-diagnosis survival in 20,463 LSS subjects diagnosed with first-primary solid cancer between 1958 and 2009 with particular attention to whether death was caused by the first-primary cancer, other cancer, or non-cancer diseases.ResultsFrom multivariable Cox regression analysis of cause-specific survival, the excess hazard at 1 Gy (EH_1Gy) for death from the first primary cancer was not significantly different from zero – p = 0.23, EH_1Gy = 0.038 (95 % CI: −0.023, 0.104). Death from other cancer and death from non-cancer diseases both were significantly associated with radiation dose: other cancer EH_1Gy = 0.38 (95 % CI: 0.24, 0.53); non-cancer EH_1Gy = 0.24 (95 % CI: 0.13, 0.36), both p < 0.001.ConclusionThere is no detectable large effect of pre-diagnosis radiation exposure on post-diagnosis death from the first primary cancer in A-bomb survivors.ImpactA direct effect of pre-diagnosis radiation exposure on cancer prognosis is ruled out as an explanation for the difference in incidence and mortality dose response in A-bomb survivors.     

Effective dose of A-bomb radiation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki as assessed by chromosomal effectiveness of spectrum energy photons and neutrons

The effective dose of combined spectrum energy neutrons and high energy spectrum γ-rays in A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki has long been a matter of discussion. The reason is largely due to the paucity of biological data for high energy photons, particularly for those with an energy of tens of MeV. To circumvent this problem, a mathematical formalism was developed for the photon energy dependency of chromosomal effectiveness by reviewing a large number of data sets published in the literature on dicentric chromosome formation in human lymphocytes. The chromosomal effectiveness was expressed by a simple multiparametric function of photon energy, which made it possible to estimate the effective dose of spectrum energy photons and differential evaluation in the field of mixed neutron and γ-ray exposure with an internal reference radiation. The effective dose of reactor-produced spectrum energy neutrons was insensitive to the fine structure of the energy distribution and was accessible by a generalized formula applicable to the A-bomb neutrons. Energy spectra of all sources of A-bomb γ-rays at different tissue depths were simulated by a Monte Carlo calculation applied on an ICRU sphere. Using kerma-weighted chromosomal effectiveness of A-bomb spectrum energy photons, the effective dose of A-bomb neutrons was determined, where the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons was expressed by a dose-dependent variable RBE, RBE(γ, D _n), against A-bomb γ-rays as an internal reference radiation. When the newly estimated variable RBE(γ, D _n) was applied to the chromosome data of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the city difference was completely eliminated. The revised effective dose was about 35% larger in Hiroshima, 19% larger in Nagasaki and 26% larger for the combined cohort compared with that based on a constant RBE of 10. Since the differences are significantly large, the proposed effective dose might have an impact on the magnitude of the risk estimates deduced from the A-bomb survivor cohort.     

Sex differences in the incidence of chronic myeloid leukemia

The incidence of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), which is caused by BCR/ABL chimeric oncogene formation in a pluripotent hematopoietic stem cell (HSC), increases with age and exposure to ionizing radiation. CML is a comparatively well-characterized neoplasm, important for its own sake and useful for insights into other neoplasms. Here, Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) CML data are analyzed after considering possible misclassification of chronic myelo-monocytic leukemia as CML. For people older than 25 years, plots of male and female CML log incidences versus age at diagnosis are approximately parallel straight lines with males either above or to the left of females. This is consistent with males having a higher risk of developing CML or a shorter latency from initiation to diagnosis of CML. These distinct mechanisms cannot be distinguished using SEER data alone. Therefore, CML risks among male and female Japanese A-bomb survivors are also analyzed. The present analyses suggest that sex differences in CML incidence more likely result from differences in risk than in latency. The simplest but not the sole interpretation of this is that males have more target cells at risk to develop CML. Comprehensive mathematical models of CML could lead to a better understanding of the role of HSCs in CML and other preleukemias that can progress to acute leukemia.     

Cancer risk estimates from the combined Japanese A-bomb and Hodgkin cohorts for doses relevant to radiotherapy

Most information on the dose–response of radiation-induced cancer is derived from data on the A-bomb survivors who were exposed to γ-rays and neutrons. Since, for radiation protection purposes, the dose span of main interest is between 0 and 1 Gy, the analysis of the A-bomb survivors is usually focused on this range. However, estimates of cancer risk for doses above 1 Gy are becoming more important for radiotherapy patients and for long-term manned missions in space research. Therefore in this work, emphasis is placed on doses relevant for radiotherapy with respect to radiation-induced solid cancer. The analysis of the A-bomb survivor’s data was extended by including two extra high-dose categories (4–6 Sv and 6–13 Sv) and by an attempted combination with cancer data on patients receiving radiotherapy for Hodgkin’s disease. In addition, since there are some recent indications for a high neutron dose contribution, the data were fitted separately for three different values for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the neutrons (10, 35 and 100) and a variable RBE as a function of dose. The data were fitted using a linear, a linear-exponential and a plateau-dose–response relationship. Best agreement was found for the plateau model with a dose-varying RBE. It can be concluded that for doses above 1 Gy there is a tendency for a nonlinear dose–response curve. In addition, there is evidence of a neutron RBE greater than 10 for the A-bomb survivor data. Many problems and uncertainties are involved in combing these two datasets. However, since very little is currently known about the shape of dose–response relationships for radiation-induced cancer in the radiotherapy dose range, this approach could be regarded as a first attempt to acquire more information on this area. The work presented here also provides the first direct evidence that the bending over of the solid cancer excess risk dose response curve for the A-bomb survivors, generally observed above 2 Gy, is due to cell killing effects.     

Concepts of association between cancer and ionising radiation: accounting for specific biological mechanisms

The probability that an observed cancer was caused by radiation exposure is usually estimated using cancer rates and risk models from radioepidemiological cohorts and is called assigned share (AS). This definition implicitly assumes that an ongoing carcinogenic process is unaffected by the studied radiation exposure. However, there is strong evidence that radiation can also accelerate an existing clonal development towards cancer. In this work, we define different association measures that an observed cancer was newly induced, accelerated, or retarded. The measures were quantified exemplarily by Monte Carlo simulations that track the development of individual cells. Three biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) models were applied. In the first model, radiation initiates cancer development, while in the other two, radiation has a promoting effect, i.e. radiation accelerates the clonal expansion of pre-cancerous cells. The parameters of the TSCE models were derived from breast cancer data from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. For exposure at age 30, all three models resulted in similar estimates of AS at age 60. For the initiation model, estimates of association were nearly identical to AS. However, for the promotion models, the cancerous clonal development was frequently accelerated towards younger ages, resulting in associations substantially higher than AS. This work shows that the association between a given cancer and exposure in an affected person depends on the underlying biological mechanism and can be substantially larger than the AS derived from classic radioepidemiology.

     

Radiation and smoking effects on lung cancer incidence by histological types among atomic bomb survivors

While the risk of lung cancer associated separately with smoking and radiation exposure has been widely reported, it is not clear how smoking and radiation together contribute to the risk of specific lung cancer histological types. With individual smoking histories and radiation dose estimates, we characterized the joint effects of radiation and smoking on type-specific lung cancer rates among the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Among 105,404 cohort subjects followed between 1958 and 1999, 1,803 first primary lung cancer incident cases were diagnosed and classified by histological type. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risks under several interaction models. Adenocarcinoma (636 cases), squamous-cell carcinoma (330) and small-cell carcinoma (194) made up 90% of the cases with known histology. Both smoking and radiation exposure significantly increased the risk of each major lung cancer histological type. Smoking-associated excess relative risks were significantly larger for small-cell and squamous-cell carcinomas than for adenocarcinoma. The gender-averaged excess relative risks per 1 Gy of radiation (for never-smokers at age 70 after radiation exposure at age 30) were estimated as 1.49 (95% confidence interval 0.1-4.6) for small-cell carcinoma, 0.75 (0.3-1.3) for adenocarcinoma, and 0.27 (0-1.5) for squamous-cell carcinoma. Under a model allowing radiation effects to vary with levels of smoking, the nature of the joint effect of smoking and radiation showed a similar pattern for different histological types in which the radiation-associated excess relative risk tended to be larger for moderate smokers than for heavy smokers. However, in contrast to analyses of all lung cancers as a group, such complicated interactions did not describe the data significantly better than either simple additive or multiplicative interaction models for any of the type-specific analyses.     

Risk coefficient for gamma-rays with regard to solid cancer

A previous investigation has uncoupled the solid cancer risk coefficient for neutrons from the low dose estimates of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons and the photon risk coefficient, and has related it to two more tangible quantities, the excess relative risk (ERR1) due to an intermediate reference dose D1 = 1 Gy of gamma-rays and the RBE of neutrons, R1, against this reference dose. With tentatively assumed RBE values between 20 and 50 and in terms of organ-averaged doses--rather than the usually invoked colon doses--the neutron risk factor was seen to be in general agreement with the current risk estimate of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP). The present assessment of the risk coefficient for gamma-rays incorporates--in terms of the unchanged A-bomb dosimetry system, DS86--this treatment of the neutrons, but is otherwise largely analogous to the evaluation of the A-bomb data for the ICRP report and for the recent report of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the effects of ionizing radiation, UNSCEAR. The resulting central estimate of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for solid cancer mortality is 0.043/Gy for a working population (ages 25-65), and is nearly the same whether the age at exposure or the attained age model is used for risk projection. For a population of all ages 0.042/Gy is obtained with the attained age model and 0.068/Gy with the age at exposure model. The values do not include a dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF), and they are only half as large as the new UNSCEAR estimates of 0.082/Gy (attained age model and all ages) and 0.13/Gy (age at exposure model and all ages). The difference is only partly due to the more explicit treatment of the neutrons. It reflects also the fact that UNSCEAR has converted ERR into LAR in a way that differs from the ICRP procedure, and that it has summed the overall risk coefficient for solid tumor mortality and incidence from separate estimates for eight solid tumor categories, whereas the present study employs a combined computation for all solid tumors and uses the ICRP procedure for the conversion of ERR into LAR. The appendix gives results for the solid cancer incidence data.     

Risk of second primary thyroid cancer after radiotherapy for a childhood cancer in a large cohort study: an update from the childhood cancer survivor study

Previous studies have indicated that thyroid cancer risk after a first childhood malignancy is curvilinear with radiation dose, increasing at low to moderate doses and decreasing at high doses. Understanding factors that modify the radiation dose response over the entire therapeutic dose range is challenging and requires large numbers of subjects. We quantified the long-term risk of thyroid cancer associated with radiation treatment among 12,547 5-year survivors of a childhood cancer (leukemia, Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, central nervous system cancer, soft tissue sarcoma, kidney cancer, bone cancer, neuroblastoma) diagnosed between 1970 and 1986 in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study using the most current cohort follow-up to 2005. There were 119 subsequent pathologically confirmed thyroid cancer cases, and individual radiation doses to the thyroid gland were estimated for the entire cohort. This cohort study builds on the previous case-control study in this population (69 thyroid cancer cases with follow-up to 2000) by allowing the evaluation of both relative and absolute risks. Poisson regression analyses were used to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIR), excess relative risks (ERR) and excess absolute risks (EAR) of thyroid cancer associated with radiation dose. Other factors such as sex, type of first cancer, attained age, age at exposure to radiation, time since exposure to radiation, and chemotherapy (yes/no) were assessed for their effect on the linear and exponential quadratic terms describing the dose-response relationship. Similar to the previous analysis, thyroid cancer risk increased linearly with radiation dose up to approximately 20 Gy, where the relative risk peaked at 14.6-fold (95% CI, 6.8-31.5). At thyroid radiation doses >20 Gy, a downturn in the dose-response relationship was observed. The ERR model that best fit the data was linear-exponential quadratic. We found that age at exposure modified the ERR linear dose term (higher radiation risk with younger age) (P < 0.001) and that sex (higher radiation risk among females) (P = 0.008) and time since exposure (higher radiation risk with longer time) (P < 0.001) modified the EAR linear dose term. None of these factors modified the exponential quadratic (high dose) term. Sex, age at exposure and time since exposure were found to be significant modifiers of the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer and as such are important factors to account for in clinical follow-up and thyroid cancer risk estimation among childhood cancer survivors.