Spatial and temporal variability across life's hierarchies in the terrestrial Antarctic

Antarctica and its surrounding islands lie at one extreme of global variation in diversity. Typically, these regions are characterized as being species poor and having simple food webs. Here, we show that terrestrial systems in the region are nonetheless characterized by substantial spatial and temporal variations at virtually all of the levels of the genealogical and ecological hierarchies which have been thoroughly investigated. Spatial variation at the individual and population levels has been documented in a variety of genetic studies, and in mosses it appears that UV-B radiation might be responsible for within-clump mutagenesis. At the species level, modern molecular methods have revealed considerable endemism of the Antarctic biota, questioning ideas that small organisms are likely to be ubiquitous and the taxa to which they belong species poor. At the biogeographic level, much of the relatively small ice-free area of Antarctica remains unsurveyed making analyses difficult. Nonetheless, it is clear that a major biogeographic discontinuity separates the Antarctic Peninsula and continental Antarctica, here named the 'Gressitt Line'. Across the Southern Ocean islands, patterns are clearer, and energy availability is an important correlate of indigenous and exotic species richness, while human visitor numbers explain much of the variation in the latter too. Temporal variation at the individual level has much to do with phenotypic plasticity, and considerable life-history and physiological plasticity seems to be a characteristic of Antarctic terrestrial species. Environmental unpredictability is an important driver of this trait and has significantly influenced life histories across the region and probably throughout much of the temperate Southern Hemisphere. Rapid climate change-related alterations in the range and abundance of several Antarctic and sub-Antarctic populations have taken place over the past several decades. In many sub-Antarctic locations, these have been exacerbated by direct and indirect effects of invasive alien species. Interactions between climate change and invasion seem set to become one of the most significant conservation problems in the Antarctic. We conclude that despite the substantial body of work on the terrestrial biodiversity of the Antarctic, investigations of interactions between hierarchical levels remain scarce. Moreover, little of the available information is being integrated into terrestrial conservation planning, which lags far behind in this region by comparison with most others.     

Metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes: significant interactions between genetic and demographic processes

We formulated a mathematical model in order to study the joint influence of demographic and genetic processes on metapopulation viability. Moreover, we explored the influence of habitat structure, matrix quality and disturbance on the interplay of these processes. We showed that the conditions that allow metapopulation persistence under the synergistic action of genetic and demographic processes depart significantly from predictions based on a mere superposition of the effects of each process separately. Moreover, an optimal dispersal rate exists that maximizes the range of survival rates of dispersers under which metapopulation persists and at the same time allows the largest sustainable patch removal and patch‐size reduction. The relative impact of patch removal and patch‐size reduction depends both on matrix quality and the dispersal strategy of the species: metapopulation persistence is more affected by patch‐size reduction (patch removal) for low (high)‐dispersing species, in presence of a low (high) quality matrix. Avoidance of inbreeding, through increased dispersal when the rate of inbreeding in a population is large, has positive effects on low‐dispersing species, but impairs the persistence of high‐dispersing species. Finally, size heterogeneity between patches largely influences metapopulation dynamics; the presence of large patches, even at the expense of other patches being smaller, can have positive effects on persistence in particular for species of low dispersing ability.     

On the relation between genetic and environmental variability in animals

Summary If a phenotypic character is under stabilizing selection, the selective disadvantage of a nonoptimal genotype will decrease exponentially to zero as the proportion of phenotypic variation that is environmental in origin -V _e /V _p - increases. Under the modified mutation-drift hypothesis of genetic polymorphism, the proportion of mutations that are effectively neutral and average heterozygosity should increase with this ratio. Invertebrates, because of their small size, fast development, and low degree of homeostasis (relative to vertebrates), are expected to show a larger environmental component of phenotypic variation than vertebrates. This may help explain why invertebrates are in general more genetically variable than vertebrates and why, when laboratory populations ofDrosophila are maintained in heterogeneous environments, genetic variability is lost less rapidly than when they are kept in constant conditions.     

Effects of habitat size and quality on equilibrium density and extinction time of Sorex araneus populations

1. The effects of changes in habitat size and quality on the expected population density and the expected time to extinction of Sorex araneus are studied by means of mathematical models that incorporate demographic stochasticity.
2. Habitat size is characterized by the number of territories, while habitat quality is represented by the expected number of offspring produced during the lifetime of an individual.
3. The expected population density of S. araneus is shown to be mainly influenced by the habitat size. The expected time to extinction of S. araneus populations due to demographic stochasticity, on the other hand, is much more affected by the habitat quality.
4. In a more general setting we demonstrate that, irrespective of the actual species under consideration, the likelihood of extinction as a consequence of demographic stochasticity is more effectively countered by increasing the reproductive success and survival of individuals then by increasing total population size.     

On the expected relationship between inbreeding,fitness, and extinction

We assessed the expected relationship between the level and the cost of inbreeding, measured either in terms of fitness, inbreeding depression or probability of extinction. First, we show that the assumption of frequent, slightly deleterious mutations do agree with observations and experiments, on the contrary to the assumption of few, moderately deleterious mutations. For the same inbreeding coefficient, populations can greatly differ in fitness according to the following: (i) population size; larger populations show higher fitness (ii) the history of population size; in a population that recovers after a bottleneck, higher inbreeding can lead to higher fitness and (iii) population demography; population growth rate and carrying capacity determine the relationship between inbreeding and extinction. With regards to the relationship between inbreeding depression and inbreeding coefficient, the population size that minimizes inbreeding depression depends on the level of inbreeding: inbreeding depression can even decrease when population size increases. It is therefore clear that to infer the costs of inbreeding, one must know both the history of inbreeding (e.g. past bottlenecks) and population demography.     

The effect of temporal variability on persistence conditions in rivers

There has been great interest in the invasion and persistence of algal and insect populations in rivers. Recent modeling approaches assume that the flow speed of the river is constant. In reality, however, flow speeds in rivers change significantly on various temporal scales due to seasonality, weather conditions, or many human activities such as hydroelectric dams. In this paper, we study persistence conditions by deriving the upstream invasion speed in simple reaction-advection-diffusion equations with coefficients chosen to be periodic step functions. The key methodological idea to determine the spreading speed is to use the exponential transform in order to obtain a moment generating function. In a temporally periodic environment, the averages of each coefficient function determine the minimal upstream and downstream propagation speeds for a single-compartment model. For a two-compartment model, the temporal variation can enhance population persistence.     

Inbreeding effects on pair fecundity and population persistence

Despite strong empirical evidence of the harmful effects of inbreeding on fecundity, spontaneous recessive deleterious mutations are generally considered as acting on survival only in evolutionary models and population viability analyses. In this study, we modelled a species with separate sexes to assess the effect of selection on fecundity in small populations on the risk of extinction. We showed that the impact of inbreeding on short-term fitness changes and that population dynamics are strongly influenced by phenotypic interactions among males and females during reproduction. In particular, population persistence was found to be highly sensitive to the level at which selection acts (i.e. individual vs. pair) and to asymmetry among sexes (in terms of mutation rates and mutational effects).  © 2005 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2005, 86 , 467–476.     

Recruitment variability and age structure in harvested animal populations

The sensitivity to harvesting in a discrete-time, age-structured model of an animal population is considered. Density dependence and stochasticity are confined to the first year of the life cycle. Sensitivity is characterized by (a) the characteristic return time and (b) the relative variance (coefficient of variation) of recruitment and yield. Harvesting affects the return time and relative variance through two mechanisms: (1) a displacement of the equilibrium down the stock-recruitment curve and (2) a change in the shape of the “fecundity profile.” The first mechanism occurs in models without age structure and usually has the effect of increasing both return time and relative variance. The second mechanism has opposite effects on return time and relative variance—reducing the former while in most cases increasing the latter. For this model it can be concluded that the overall effect of harvesting is to increase the relative variance of recruitment and yield. The behavior of the return time is ambiguous and is in poor agreement with that of the relative variance.     

Sexual selection predicts the persistence of populations within altered environments

The effect of sexual selection on species persistence remains unclear. The cost of bearing ornaments or armaments might increase extinction risk, but sexual selection can also enhance the spread of beneficial alleles and increase the removal of deleterious alleles, potentially reducing extinction risk. Here we investigate the effect of sexual selection on species persistence in a community of 34 species of dung beetles across a gradient of environmental disturbance ranging from old growth forest to oil palm plantation. Horns are sexually selected traits used in contests between males, and we find that both horn presence and relative size are strongly positively associated with species persistence and abundance in altered habitats. Testes mass, an indicator of post‐copulatory selection, is, however, negatively linked with the abundance of species within the most disturbed habitats. This study represents the first evidence from a field system of a population‐level benefit from pre‐copulatory sexual selection.     

High variability in patterns of population decline: the importance of local processes in species extinctions

A fundamental goal of conservation science is to improve conservation practice. Understanding species extinction patterns has been a central approach towards this objective. However, uncertainty remains about the extent to which species-level patterns reliably indicate population phenomena at the scale of local sites, where conservation ultimately takes place. Here, we explore the importance of both species- and site-specific components of variation in local population declines following habitat disturbance, and test a suite of hypotheses about their intrinsic and extrinsic drivers. To achieve these goals, we analyse an unusually detailed global dataset for species responses to habitat disturbance, namely primates in timber extraction systems, using cross-classified generalized linear mixed models. We show that while there are consistent differences in the severity of local population decline between species, an equal amount of variation also occurs between sites. The tests of our hypotheses further indicate that a combination of biological traits at the species level, and environmental factors at the site level, can help to explain these patterns. Specifically, primate populations show a more marked decline when the species is characterized by slow reproduction, high ecological requirements, low ecological flexibility and small body size; and when the local environment has had less time for recovery following disturbance. Our results demonstrate that individual species show a highly heterogeneous, yet explicable, pattern of decline. The increased recognition and elucidation of local-scale processes in species declines will improve our ability to conserve biodiversity in the future.     

On the persistence and pervasiveness of a new mutation

It has frequently been assumed that the persistence of a deleterious mutation (the average number of generations before its loss) and its pervasiveness (the average number of individuals carrying the gene before its loss) are equal. This is true for a particular simple, widely used infinite model, but this agreement is not general. If hs > 1/(4N(e)), where hs is the selective disadvantage of mutant heterozygotes and N(e) is the effective population number, the contribution of homozygous mutants can be neglected and the simple approximate formula 1/hs gives the mean pervasiveness. But the expected persistence is usually much smaller, 2(log(e)(1/2hs) + 1 - gamma) where gamma = 0.5772. For neutral mutations, the total number of heterozygotes until fixation or loss is often the quantity of interest, and its expected value is 2N(e), with remarkable generality for various population structures. In contrast, the number of generations until fixation or loss, 2(N(e)/N)(1 + log(e)2N), is much smaller than the total number of heterozygotes. In general the number of generations is less than the number of individuals.     

Long‐term persistence of wildlife populations in a pastoral area

Facilitating coexistence between people and wildlife is a major conservation challenge in East Africa. Some conservation models aim to balance the needs of people and wildlife, but the effectiveness of these models is rarely assessed. Using a case‐study approach, we assessed the ecological performance of a pastoral area in northern Tanzania (Manyara Ranch) and established a long‐term wildlife population monitoring program (carried out intermittently from 2003 to 2008 and regularly from 2011 to 2019) embedded in a distance sampling framework. By comparing density estimates of the road transect‐based long‐term monitoring to estimates derived from systematically distributed transects, we found that the bias associated with nonrandom placement of transects was nonsignificant. Overall, cattle and sheep and goat reached the greatest densities and several wildlife species occurred at densities similar (zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, Kirk's dik‐dik) or possibly even greater (giraffe, eland, lesser kudu, Grant's gazelle, Thomson's gazelle) than in adjacent national parks in the same ecosystem. Generalized linear mixed models suggested that most wildlife species (8 out of 14) reached greatest densities during the dry season, that wildlife population densities either remained constant or increased over the 17‐year period, and that herbivorous livestock species remained constant, while domestic dog population decreased over time. Cross‐species correlations did not provide evidence for interference competition between grazing or mixed livestock species and wildlife species but indicate possible negative relationships between domestic dog and warthog populations. Overall, wildlife and livestock populations in Manyara Ranch appear to coexist over the 17‐year span. Most likely, this is facilitated by existing connectivity to adjacent protected areas, effective anti‐poaching efforts, spatio‐temporal grazing restrictions, favorable environmental conditions of the ranch, and spatial heterogeneity of surface water and habitats. This long‐term case study illustrates the potential of rangelands to simultaneously support wildlife conservation and human livelihood goals if livestock grazing is restricted in space, time, and numbers.     

Demographic influences on mitochondrial DNA lineage survivorship in animal populations

Summary Probability models of branching processes and computer simulations of these models are used to examine stochastic survivorship of female lineages under a variety of demographic scenarios. A parameter II, defined as the probability of survival of two or more independent lineages over G generations, is monitored as a function of founding size of a population, population size at carrying capacity, and the frequency distributions of surviving progeny.Stochastic lineage extinction can be very rapid under certain biologically plausible demographic conditions. For stable-sized populations initiated by n females and/or regulated about carrying capacity k=n, it is highly probable that within about 4n generations all descendants will trace their ancestries to a single founder female. For a given mean family size, increased variance decreases lineage survivorship. In expanding populations, however, lineage extinction is dramatically slowed, and the final k value is a far more important determinant of II than is the size of the population at founding. The results are discussed in the context of recent empirical observations of low mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence heterogeneity in humans and expected distributions of asexually transmitted traits among sexually reproducing species.     

Probabilistic measures of persistence and extinction in measles (meta)populations

Persistence and extinction are fundamental processes in ecological systems that are difficult to accurately measure due to stochasticity and incomplete observation. Moreover, these processes operate on multiple scales, from individual populations to metapopulations. Here, we examine an extensive new data set of measles case reports and associated demographics in pre‐vaccine era US cities, alongside a classic England & Wales data set. We first infer the per‐population quasi‐continuous distribution of log incidence. We then use stochastic, spatially implicit metapopulation models to explore the frequency of rescue events and apparent extinctions. We show that, unlike critical community size, the inferred distributions account for observational processes, allowing direct comparisons between metapopulations. The inferred distributions scale with population size. We use these scalings to estimate extinction boundary probabilities. We compare these predictions with measurements in individual populations and random aggregates of populations, highlighting the importance of medium‐sized populations in metapopulation persistence.     

Spatial and temporal determinants of golden sun moth Synemon plana distribution

In this study we examined the spatial and temporal variation in a population of the critically endangered golden sun moth Synemon plana over four years in a conservation reserve in south‐eastern Australia. We found golden sun moth spatial distribution and abundance dramatically declined from a peak in extent and abundance from 2008–2009 to 2011–2012 due to a shift from drought to above average rainfall. Autoregressive correlative models indicated that a northerly aspect and landscape position were key predictors of abundance over time, and golden sun moth distribution shifted from wet to dry locations in the landscape. We conclude that: our data provide a counterpoint to conclusions that golden sun moth has been known to persist in very small areas and suggest that distribution can change quite markedly (from large connected populations to small patches) at a local scale, and this will be due to dispersal and survivorship; the variability in the data may have implications for adequate detection of the species over time, especially when populations have contracted and species have a naturally restricted activity and breeding period; and long‐term weather patterns and landscape configuration (aspect, wet or dry position) interact to significantly affect local distribution and abundance over time. This has implications for the species under global change; increased variability in rainfall, temperature, productivity and exotic pasture growth may all alter and interact to either reduce or enhance persistence of golden sun moth populations over time.     

Geographical and temporal mitochondrial DNA variability in populations of pink salmon

Pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha from odd and even year generations in rivers of Sakhalin Island, Kuril Island, Kamchatka Peninsula, and Alaska were investigated with five informative restriction endonucleases for mtDNA variation. The odd and even generations from the same rivers of South Sakhalin differed greatly. The time of divergence between the two broodlines was estimated at 0.9-1.1 Myr. The variability of mtDNA in odd year generations was higher than in even year generations and may have been due to' founder' and/or' bottleneck' effects. The differences among river populations within the Sakhalin region in 1991-1993 were not significant and this confirms the highly migratory nature of pink compared with other Pacific salmon. The mtDNA samples revealed statistically significant differences between regions. The northern populations (Kamchatka, Alaska) were less diverse in number and frequency of haplotypes than the southern populations (Sakhalin). This suggests that pink salmon originated in the Sakhalin-Kuril region and that a founder effect during the spread of this species may have restricted the mtDNA variability in other regions.     

Spatial and temporal variability in cyanobacterial populations controlled by physical processes

The Fitzroy impoundment is a long slender water body (10 m deep)formed by the regulation of the Fitzroy River in tropical Australia.Large, monsoonally driven discharges in late summer flush theimpoundment repeatedly leaving, after 2 months, a longitudinallyuniform, well-mixed water column, rich in dissolved nutrientsand with high turbidity. For the rest of the year flows arenegligible. Paradoxically, two sites with initially identicalnutrient and stratification characteristics, and located only30 km apart, develop quite different patterns of cyanobacterialsuccession. The upstream site is initially dominated by Anabaenacircinalis which appears in early spring and collapses withinthe month. A mixed population of Anabaenopsis elenkinii andAphanizomenon issatschenkoi then develops at both sites. Thisis followed by a mixture of small cyanobacteria (consistingof Cylindrospermopsis, Planktolyngbya and Limnothrix) whichdevelops mainly at the downstream site and persists for 3 monthsuntil flushed away by flood flows. We report on data coveringan 8 month period of investigation of the stratification, lightclimate, temperature and nutrient dynamics at these two sites.We show that large-scale climatic conditions and the local weatherpattern set the physical and chemical conditions which determinethe cyanobacterial response.     

Genetic variability and drift load in populations of an aquatic snail

Abstract Population genetic theory predicts that in small populations, random genetic drift will fix and accumulate slightly deleterious mutations, resulting in reduced reproductive output. This genetic load due to random drift (i.e., drift load) can increase the extinction risk of small populations. We studied the relationship between genetic variability (indicator of past population size) and reproductive output in eight isolated, natural populations of the hermaphroditic snail Lymnaea stagnalis . In a common laboratory environment, snails from populations with the lowest genetic variability mature slower and have lower fecundity than snails from genetically more variable populations. This result suggests that past small population size has resulted in increased drift load, as predicted. The relationship between genetic variability and reproductive output is independent of the amount of nonrandom mating within populations. However, reproductive output and the current density of snails in the populations were not correlated. Instead, data from the natural populations suggest that trematode parasites may determine, at least in part, population densities of the snails.     

Interactions between spatial and temporal scales in the evolution of dispersal rate

The evolution of dispersal rate is studied with a model of several local populations linked by dispersal. Three dispersal strategies are considered where all, half or none of the offspring disperse. The spatial scale (number of patches) and the temporal scale (probability of local extinction) of the environment are critical in determining the selective advantage of the different dispersal strategies. The results from the simulations suggest that an interaction between group selection and individual selection results in a different outcome in relation to the spatial and temporal scales of the environment. Such an interaction is able to maintain a polymorphism in dispersal strategies. The maintenance of this polymorphism is also scale-dependent. This study suggests a mechanism for the short-term evolution of dispersal, and provides a testable prediction of this hypothesis, namely that loss of dispersal abilities should be more frequent in spatially more continuous environments, or in temporally more stable environments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.