Effects of radiation and lifestyle factors on risks of urothelial carcinoma in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Among the Life Span Study (LSS) of Atomic-bomb survivors, recent estimates showed that unspecified bladder cancer had high radiation sensitivity with a notably high female-to-male excess relative risk (ERR) per radiation dose ratio and were the only sites for which the ERR did not decrease with attained age. These findings, however, did not consider lifestyle factors, which could potentially confound or modify the risk estimates. This study estimated the radiation risks of the most prevalent subtype of urinary tract cancer, urothelial carcinoma, while accounting for smoking, consumption of fruit, vegetables, alcohol and level of education (a surrogate for socioeconomic status). Eligible study subjects included 105,402 (males = 42,890) LSS members who were cancer-free in 1958 and had estimated radiation doses. Members were censored due to loss of follow-up, incident cancer of another type, death, or the end of calendar year 2001. Surveys (by mail or clinical interview) gathered lifestyle data periodically for 1963-1991. There were 63,827 participants in one or more survey. Five hundred seventy-three incident urothelial carcinoma cases occurred, of which 364 occurred after lifestyle information was available. Analyses were performed using Poisson regression methods. The excess relative risk per weighted gray unit (the gamma component plus 10 times the neutron component, Gy(w)) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.43-1.78) but the risks were not dependent upon age at exposure or attained age. Lifestyle factors other than smoking were not associated with urothelial carcinoma risk. Neither the magnitude of the radiation ERR estimate (1.00 compared to 0.96), nor the female-to-male (F:M) ERR/Gy(w) ratio (3.2 compared to 3.4) were greatly changed after accounting for all lifestyle factors. A multiplicative model of gender-specific radiation and smoking effects was the most revealing though there was no evidence of significant departures from either the additive or multiplicative joint effect models. Among the LSS cohort members with doses greater than 0.005 Gy(w) (average dose 0.21 Gy(w)), the attributable fraction of urothelial carcinoma due to radiation was 7.1% in males and 19.7% in females. Among current smokers, the attributable fraction of urothelial carcinoma due to smoking was 61% in males and 52% in females. Relative risk estimates of smoking risk were approximately two for smokers compared to nonsmokers. After adjustment for lifestyle factors, gender-specific radiation risks and the F:M ERR/Gy(w), the ratios of excess urothelial carcinoma risk were similar to the estimates without adjusting for lifestyle factors. Smoking was the primary factor responsible for excess urothelial carcinoma in this cohort. These findings led us to conclude that the radiation risk estimates of urothelial carcinoma do not appear to be strongly confounded or modified by smoking, consumption of alcohol, fruits, or vegetables, or level of education.     

Melanoma and ionizing radiation: is there a causal relationship?

This review was initiated in response to concerns that ionizing radiation could be a cause of melanoma. Studies presenting the relative risks for melanoma after external ionizing radiation exposure were in seven categories: (1) The Canadian Radiation Dose Registry, (2) nuclear industry workers, (3) subjects near nuclear test blasts, (4) survivors of the atomic bombings of Japan, (5) airline pilots and cabin attendants, (6) recipients of medical radiation, and (7) radiological technicians. Relative risks for leukemia in each of the studies were used to confirm the likelihood of exposure to ionizing radiation. When studies within a category were compatible, meta-analytic methods were used to obtain combined estimates of the relative risk, and a meta-regression analysis of melanoma relative risk compared to leukemia relative risk was used to examine consistency across exposure categories. Generally, exposure categories with elevated relative risks of leukemia had proportionately elevated relative risks of melanoma. This suggests that people exposed to ionizing radiation may be at increased risk of developing melanoma, although alternative explanations are possible. Future epidemiological studies of ionizing radiation effects should include melanoma as an outcome of interest.     

Radiation effects on breast cancer risk: a pooled analysis of eight cohorts

Breast cancer incidence rates after radiation exposure in eight large cohorts are described and compared. The nature of the exposures varies appreciably, ranging from a single or a small number of high-dose-rate exposures (Japanese atomic bomb survivors, U.S. acute post-partum mastitis patients, Swedish benign breast disease patients, and U.S. infants with thymic enlargement) to highly fractionated high-dose-rate exposures (two U.S. tuberculosis cohorts) and protracted low-dose-rate exposure (two Swedish skin hemangioma cohorts). There were 1,502 breast cancers among 77,527 women (about 35,000 of whom were exposed) with 1.8 million woman-years of follow-up. The excess risk depends linearly on dose with a downturn at high doses. No simple unified summary model adequately describes the excess risks in all groups. Excess risks for the thymus, tuberculosis, and atomic bomb survivor cohorts have similar temporal patterns, depending on attained age for relative risk models and on both attained age and age at exposure for excess rate models. Excess rates were similar in these cohorts, whereas, related in part to the low breast cancer background rates for Japanese women, the excess relative risk per unit dose in the bomb survivors was four times that in the tuberculosis or thymus cohorts. Excess rates were higher for the mastitis and benign breast disease cohorts. The hemangioma cohorts showed lower excess risks suggesting ameliorating dose-rate effects for protracted low-dose-rate exposures. For comparable ages at exposure (approximately 0.5 years), the excess risk in the hemangioma cohorts was about one-seventh that in the thymus cohort, whose members received acute high-dose-rate exposures. The results support the linearity of the radiation dose response for breast cancer, highlight the importance of age and age at exposure on the risks, and suggest a similarity in risks for acute and fractionated high-dose-rate exposures with much smaller effects from low-dose-rate protracted exposures. There is also a suggestion that women with some benign breast conditions may be at elevated risk of radiation-associated breast cancer.     

Frequent chest X-ray fluoroscopy and breast cancer incidence among tuberculosis patients in Massachusetts

The incidence of breast cancer was determined in 4940 women treated for tuberculosis between 1925 and 1954 in Massachusetts. Among 2573 women examined by X-ray fluoroscopy an average of 88 times during lung collapse therapy and followed for an average of 30 years, 147 breast cancers occurred in contrast to 113.6 expected [observed/expected (O/E) = 1.29; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.1-1.5]. No excess of breast cancer was seen among 2367 women treated by other means: 87 observed versus 100.9 expected. Increased rates for breast cancer were not apparent until about 10 to 15 years after the initial fluoroscopy examination. Excess risk then remained high throughout all intervals of follow-up, up to 50 years after first exposure. Age at exposure strongly influenced the risk of radiation-induced breast cancer with young women being at highest risk and those over age 40 being at lowest risk [relative risk (RR) = 1.06]. Mean radiation dose to the breast was estimated to be 79 cGy, and there was strong evidence for a linear relationship between dose and breast cancer risk. Allowing for a 10-year minimum latent period, the relative risk at 1 Gy was estimated as 1.61 and the absolute excess as 10.7 per 10(4) woman-years per gray. When compared to other studies, our data suggest that the breast is one of the most sensitive tissues to the carcinogenic force of radiation, that fractionated exposures are similar to single exposures of the same total dose in their ability to induce breast cancer, that risk remains high for many years after exposure, and that young women are especially vulnerable to radiation injury.     

Cancer mortality among German aircrew: second follow-up

Aircrew members are exposed to cosmic radiation and other specific occupational factors. In a previous analysis of a large cohort of German aircrew, no increase in cancer mortality or dose-related effects was observed. In the present study, the follow-up of this cohort of 6,017 cockpit and 20,757 cabin crew members was extended by 6 years to 2003. Among male cockpit crew, the resulting all-cancer standardized mortality ratio (SMR) (n = 127) is 0.6 (95% CI 0.5–0.8), while for brain tumors it is 2.1 (95% CI 1.0–3.9). The cancer risk is significantly raised (RR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.2–4.1) among cockpit crew members employed 30 years or more compared to those employed less than 10 years. Among both female and male cabin crew, the all-cancer SMR and that for most individual cancers are close to 1. The SMR for breast cancer among female crew is 1.2 (95% CI 0.8–1.8). Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma among male cabin crew is increased (SMR 4.2; 95% CI 1.3–10.8). However, cancers associated with radiation exposure are not raised in the cohort. It is concluded that among cockpit crew cancer mortality is low, particularly for lung cancer. The positive trend of all cancer with duration of employment persists. The increased brain cancer SMR among cockpit crew requires replication in other cohorts. For cabin crew, cancer mortality is generally close to population rates. Cosmic radiation dose estimates will allow more detailed assessments, as will a pooling of updated aircrew studies currently in planning.     

Incidence of female breast cancer among atomic bomb survivors, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 1950-1980

Ascertainment of breast cancer incidence among the cohort of the RERF Life Span Study extended sample identified 574 breast cancers among 564 cases diagnosed during 1950-1980 of which 412 cancers were reviewed microscopically. There were no dose-dependent differences with respect to diagnostic certainty or histological type. As in previous studies, the dose response appeared to be roughly linear and did not differ between the two cities. The most remarkable new finding was the emergence of a radiation-related excess among women under 10 years of age at exposure. The risk of radiogenic breast cancer appears to decrease with increasing age at exposure, whether expressed in relative or absolute terms. These results suggest that exposure of female breast tissue to ionizing radiation at any time during the first four decades of life, even during the premature stage, can cause breast cancer later in life, and that the length of time that tumor promoters such as endogenous hormones operate following exposure has an important influence on the development of radiation-induced breast cancer. An unresolved question is whether breast cancer risk is increased by radiation exposure at ages older than 40.     

Liver cancers in Mayak workers

Liver cancer mortality risks were evaluated in 11,000 workers who started working at the "Mayak" Production Association in 1948-1958 and who were exposed to both internally deposited plutonium and external gamma radiation. Comparisons with Russian liver cancer incidence rates indicate excess risk, especially among those with detectable plutonium body burdens and among female workers in the plutonium plant. Comparisons within the Mayak worker cohort which evaluate the role of plutonium body burden with adjustment for cumulative external dose indicate excess risk among workers with burdens estimated to exceed 7.4 kBq (relative risk = 17; 95% CI = 8. 0-36) and among workers in the plutonium plant who did not have routine plutonium monitoring data based on urine measurements (relative risk = 2.8; 95% CI = 1.3-6.2). In addition, analyses treating the estimated plutonium body burden as a continuous variable indicate increasing risk with increasing burden (P < 0.001). Relative risks tended to be higher for females than for males, probably because of the lower baseline risk and the higher levels of plutonium measured in females. Because of limitations in current plutonium dosimetry, no attempt was made to quantify liver cancer risks from plutonium in terms of organ dose, and risk from external dose could not be reliably evaluated.     

Risk of second bone sarcoma following childhood cancer: role of radiation therapy treatment

Bone sarcoma as a second malignancy is rare but highly fatal. The present knowledge about radiation-absorbed organ dose–response is insufficient to predict the risks induced by radiation therapy techniques. The objective of the present study was to assess the treatment-induced risk for bone sarcoma following a childhood cancer and particularly the related risk of radiotherapy. Therefore, a retrospective cohort of 4,171 survivors of a solid childhood cancer treated between 1942 and 1986 in France and Britain has been followed prospectively. We collected detailed information on treatments received during childhood cancer. Additionally, an innovative methodology has been developed to evaluate the dose–response relationship between bone sarcoma and radiation dose throughout this cohort. The median follow-up was 26 years, and 39 patients had developed bone sarcoma. It was found that the overall incidence was 45-fold higher [standardized incidence ratio 44.8, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 31.0–59.8] than expected from the general population, and the absolute excess risk was 35.1 per 100,000 person-years (95 % CI 24.0–47.1). The risk of bone sarcoma increased slowly up to a cumulative radiation organ absorbed dose of 15 Gy [hazard ratio (HR) = 8.2, 95 % CI 1.6–42.9] and then strongly increased for higher radiation doses (HR for 30 Gy or more 117.9, 95 % CI 36.5–380.6), compared with patients not treated with radiotherapy. A linear model with an excess relative risk per Gy of 1.77 (95 % CI 0.6213–5.935) provided a close fit to the data. These findings have important therapeutic implications: Lowering the radiation dose to the bones should reduce the incidence of secondary bone sarcomas. Other therapeutic solutions should be preferred to radiotherapy in bone sarcoma-sensitive areas.     

A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure

Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0–1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However, the generalization and interpretation of radiation effect estimates based on the LSS cancer data, when projected to other populations, are particularly uncertain if considerable differences exist between site-specific baseline rates in the LSS and the other populations of interest. Definitive conclusions, regarding the appropriate method for transporting cancer risks, are limited by a lack of knowledge in several areas including unknown factors and uncertainties in biological mechanisms and genetic and environmental risk factors for carcinogenesis; uncertainties in radiation dosimetry; and insufficient statistical power and/or incomplete follow-up in data from radio-epidemiological studies.     

Estimates of relative risks for cancers in a population after prolonged low-dose-rate radiation exposure: a follow-up assessment from 1983 to 2005

Radiation effects on cancer risks in a cohort of Taiwanese residents who received protracted low-dose-rate gamma-radiation exposures from (60)Co-contaminated reinforcing steel used to build their apartments were studied, and risks were compared to those in other radiation-exposed cohorts. Analyses were based on a more extended follow-up of the cohort population in which 117 cancer cases diagnosed between 1983 and 2005 among 6,242 people with an average excess cumulative exposure estimate of about 48 mGy. Cases were identified from Taiwan's National Cancer Registry. Radiation effects on cancer risk were estimated using proportional hazards models and were summarized in terms of the hazard ratio associated with a 100-mGy increase in dose (HR(100mGy)). A significant radiation risk was observed for leukemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia (HR(100mGy) 1.19, 90% CI 1.01-1.31). Breast cancer exhibited a marginally significant dose response (HR(100mGy) 1.12, 90% CI 0.99-1.21). The results further strengthen the association between protracted low-dose radiation and cancer risks, especially for breast cancers and leukemia, in this unique cohort population.     

Cancer mortality following in utero exposure among offspring of female mayak worker cohort members

Little is known about long-term cancer risks following in utero radiation exposure. We evaluated the association between in utero radiation exposure and risk of solid cancer and leukemia mortality among 8,000 offspring, born from 1948-1988, of female workers at the Mayak Nuclear Facility in Ozyorsk, Russia. Mother's cumulative gamma radiation uterine dose during pregnancy served as a surrogate for fetal dose. We used Poisson regression methods to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of solid cancer and leukemia mortality associated with in utero radiation exposure and to quantify excess relative risks (ERRs) as a function of dose. Using currently available dosimetry information, 3,226 (40%) offspring were exposed in utero (mean dose = 54.5 mGy). Based on 75 deaths from solid cancers (28 exposed) and 12 (6 exposed) deaths from leukemia, in utero exposure status was not significantly associated with solid cancer: RR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.49; ERR/Gy = -0.1 (95% CI < -0.1 to 4.1), or leukemia mortality; RR = 1.65, 95% CI 0.52 to 5.27; ERR/Gy = -0.8 (95% CI < -0.8 to 46.9). These initial results provide no evidence that low-dose gamma in utero radiation exposure increases solid cancer or leukemia mortality risk, but the data are not inconsistent with such an increase. As the offspring cohort is relatively young, subsequent analyses based on larger case numbers are expected to provide more precise estimates of adult cancer mortality risk following in utero exposure to ionizing radiation.     

Historical review of occupational exposures and cancer risks in medical radiation workers

Epidemiological studies of medical radiation workers have found excess risks of leukemia, skin and female breast cancer in those employed before 1950 but little consistent evidence of cancer risk increases subsequently. Occupational radiation-related dose-response data and recent and lifetime cancer risk data are limited for radiologists and radiologic technologists and lacking for physicians and technologists performing fluoroscopically guided procedures. Survey data demonstrate that occupational doses to radiologists and radiologic technologists have declined over time. Eighty mostly small studies of cardiologists and fewer studies of other physicians reveal that effective doses to physicians per interventional procedure vary by more than an order of magnitude. For medical radiation workers, there is an urgent need to expand the limited information on average annual, time-trend and organ doses from occupational radiation exposures and to assess lifetime cancer risks of these workers. For physicians and technologists performing interventional procedures, more information about occupational doses should be collected and long-term follow-up studies of cancer and other serious disease risks should be initiated. Such studies will help optimize standardized protocols for radiologic procedures, determine whether current radiation protection measures for medical radiation workers are adequate, provide guidance on cancer screening needs, and yield valuable insights on cancer risks associated with chronic radiation exposure.     

BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation analysis of 208 Ashkenazi Jewish women with ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer is a component of the autosomal-dominant hereditary breast-ovarian cancer syndrome and may be due to a mutation in either the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. Two mutations in BRCA1 (185delAG and 5382insC) and one mutation in BRCA2 (6174delT) are common in the Ashkenazi Jewish population. One of these three mutations is present in approximately 2% of the Jewish population. Each mutation is associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer, and it is expected that a significant proportion of Jewish women with ovarian cancer will carry one of these mutations. To estimate the proportion of ovarian cancers attributable to founding mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 in the Jewish population and the familial cancer risks associated with each, we interviewed 213 Jewish women with ovarian cancer at 11 medical centers in North America and Israel and offered these women genetic testing for the three founder mutations. To establish the presence of nonfounder mutations in this population, we also completed the protein-truncation test on exon 11 of BRCA1 and exons 10 and 11 of BRCA2. We obtained a detailed family history on all women we studied who had cancer and on a control population of 386 Ashkenazi Jewish women without ovarian or breast cancer. A founder mutation was present in 41.3% of the women we studied. The cumulative incidence of ovarian cancer to age 75 years was found to be 6.3% for female first-degree relatives of the patients with ovarian cancer, compared with 2.0% for the female relatives of healthy controls (relative risk 3.2; 95% CI 1.5-6.8; P=.002). The relative risk to age 75 years for breast cancer among the female first-degree relatives was 2.0 (95% CI 1.4-3.0; P=.0001). Only one nonfounder mutation was identified (in this instance, in a woman of mixed ancestry), and the three founding mutations accounted for most of the observed excess risk of ovarian and breast cancer in relatives.     

Cancer mortality following radium treatment for uterine bleeding

Cancer mortality in relation to radiation dose was evaluated among 4153 women treated with intrauterine radium (226Ra) capsules for benign gynecologic bleeding disorders between 1925 and 1965. Average follow up was 26.5 years (maximum = 59.9 years). Overall, 2763 deaths were observed versus 2687 expected based on U.S. mortality rates [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 1.03]. Deaths due to cancer, however, were increased (SMR = 1.30), especially cancers of organs close to the radiation source. For organs receiving greater than 5 Gy, excess mortality of 100 to 110% was noted for cancers of the uterus and bladder 10 or more years following irradiation, while a deficit was seen for cancer of the cervix, one of the few malignancies not previously shown to be caused by ionizing radiation. Part of the excess of uterine cancer, however, may have been due to the underlying gynecologic disorders being treated. Among cancers of organs receiving average or local doses of 1 to 4 Gy, excesses of 30 to 100% were found for leukemia and cancers of the colon and genital organs other than uterus; no excess was seen for rectal or bone cancer. Among organs typically receiving 0.1 to 0.3 Gy, a deficit was recorded for cancers of the liver, gall bladder, and bile ducts combined, death due to stomach cancer occurred at close to the expected rate, a 30% excess was noted for kidney cancer (based on eight deaths), and there was a 60% excess of pancreatic cancer among 10-year survivors, but little evidence of dose-response. Estimates of the excess relative risk per Gray were 0.006 for uterus, 0.4 for other genital organs, 0.5 for colon, 0.2 for bladder, and 1.9 for leukemia. Contrary to findings for other populations treated by pelvic irradiation, a deficit of breast cancer was not observed (SMR = 1.0). Dose to the ovaries (median, 2.3 Gy) may have been insufficient to protect against breast cancer. For organs receiving greater than 1 Gy, cancer mortality remained elevated for more than 30 years, supporting the notion that radiation damage persists for many years after exposure.     

Risk factors and risk reduction of breast cancer

Because of its increasing incidence, breast cancer is a significant burden for women worldwide. In industrialized countries, breast cancer is the second-leading cause of cancer-related deaths among women, and it is estimated that 1 in every 8 women will develop the disease during her lifetime. Sufficient evidence indicates that a number of genetic, environmental and lifestyle risk exposures during life may play important roles in the etiology of this disease. The purpose of this paper is to review some etiologic factors and underlying mechanisms in relation to breast cancer risk. Based on the published literature, there is sufficient evidence that some established factors are associated with breast cancer risk. Age, early age at menarche, late menopause, height, post-menopausal obesity, family history of breast cancer, ionizing radiation, oral contraceptives, hormonal replacement therapy, mammographic density, some gene mutations and clinical conditions, such as benign breast disease, are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. The risk decreases with early childbearing, high parity and physical activity, and breastfeeding. Alcohol increases the risk, while caloric restriction may confer protection from breast cancer. Epidemiological evidence for other nutritional factors is insufficient. These results suggest that breast cancer is a multifactorial disease where genetic susceptibility, environment, nutrition and other lifestyle risk factors interact. Better identification of modifiable risk factors and risk reduction of breast cancer may allow implementation of useful strategies for prevention.     

Lithuanian cohort of Chernobyl cleanup workers: Cancer incidence follow-up 1986–2012

BackgroundCancer risks following radiation exposure in adulthood after Chernobyl are less studied compared to those after exposure in childhood. We aimed to evaluate cancer risk in the Lithuanian cohort of Chernobyl cleanup workers 26 years after their exposure in Chernobyl.MethodsStudy population (6707 men) was followed for cancer incidence upon return from Chernobyl till the end of 2012 by linkage procedure with the Lithuanian Cancer Registry and for migration and death – with Central Population Registry. The site-specific cancer risk in the cohort was estimated by calculating the standardised incidence ratio (SIR) with 95 % confidence interval (CI).ResultsA total of 596 cancer cases was observed in the cohort, against 584 expected (SIR 1.02; 95 % CI 0.94, 1.11). Only incidence of mouth and pharynx cancers was increased compared to the expected (SIR 1.41; 95 % CI 1.07, 1.86). Nevertheless, an increased risk of thyroid cancer was observed among cleanup workers who were younger than 30 years when entering the Chernobyl zone (SIR 2.90; 95 % CI 1.09, 7.72), whose radiation dose was above 100 milisievert (mSv) (SIR 3.13; 95 % CI 1.30, 7.52) and who had shorter duration of stay (SIR 2.30; 95 % CI 1.03, 5.13).ConclusionsOur findings are consistent with those observed in other cohorts of workers, namely, the increased risk of cancer sites related to behavioural factors. The increased risk of thyroid cancer among cleanup workers who were younger than 30 years when entering Chernobyl and whose radiation dose was above 100 mSv cannot exclude the association with the radiation exposure in Chernobyl.     

Can paternal preconceptional radiation account for the increase of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in Seascale?

OBJECTIVE--To determine if the excess of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma in Seascale is restricted to those born in the parish and whether it might be explained by the postulated relation with paternal preconceptional radiation. DESIGN--Comparison, separately for those born in the parish and those born elsewhere, of the numbers of these malignancies observed in Seascale with those expected on the basis of reference rates for England and Wales. Details of paternal radiation levels were sought for each case. SETTING--The parish of Seascale in west Cumbria. SUBJECTS--Residents of Seascale below age 25 years in the years 1951-91. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The observed and expected numbers of cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma within Seascale among those born there and among those born elsewhere. Also, the levels of any paternal preconceptional radiation associated with each case. RESULTS--A significant excess of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma at ages 0-24 was found in Seascale in those who were born there (ratio of observed to expected cases 8.6 and 20.2 respectively; p < 0.01). This also applied to those not born there (7.2 and 16.5; p < 0.01), a group often regarded as not showing an excess. The estimates were then conservatively recalculated so as to overestimate the risks among those born in Seascale and underestimate them among those born elsewhere. On this basis the six cases in those born in Seascale compare with 0.38 expected (15.8; p < 0.001), of which two were associated with paternal preconceptional life-time levels of 100 mSv or greater and three others with levels of 90-99 mSv. Among those born elsewhere, there were five cases (expected 0.74; ratio 6.7, p < 0.01), of which only one was associated with a high level of such radiation. CONCLUSIONS--Paternal preconceptional radiation cannot be the sole cause of the excess in Seascale since it will not explain the excess among those born outside Seascale. It follows that, unless two causes are to be postulated, any single cause must be a factor other than paternal preconceptional radiation. On this basis, the association found among those born there, if not partly due to chance, may reflect an indirect relation with the true cause. The recent hypothesis about such paternal radiation has originated in a subgroup of the excess cases that have aroused concern.     

Risk of second primary thyroid cancer after radiotherapy for a childhood cancer in a large cohort study: an update from the childhood cancer survivor study

Previous studies have indicated that thyroid cancer risk after a first childhood malignancy is curvilinear with radiation dose, increasing at low to moderate doses and decreasing at high doses. Understanding factors that modify the radiation dose response over the entire therapeutic dose range is challenging and requires large numbers of subjects. We quantified the long-term risk of thyroid cancer associated with radiation treatment among 12,547 5-year survivors of a childhood cancer (leukemia, Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, central nervous system cancer, soft tissue sarcoma, kidney cancer, bone cancer, neuroblastoma) diagnosed between 1970 and 1986 in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study using the most current cohort follow-up to 2005. There were 119 subsequent pathologically confirmed thyroid cancer cases, and individual radiation doses to the thyroid gland were estimated for the entire cohort. This cohort study builds on the previous case-control study in this population (69 thyroid cancer cases with follow-up to 2000) by allowing the evaluation of both relative and absolute risks. Poisson regression analyses were used to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIR), excess relative risks (ERR) and excess absolute risks (EAR) of thyroid cancer associated with radiation dose. Other factors such as sex, type of first cancer, attained age, age at exposure to radiation, time since exposure to radiation, and chemotherapy (yes/no) were assessed for their effect on the linear and exponential quadratic terms describing the dose-response relationship. Similar to the previous analysis, thyroid cancer risk increased linearly with radiation dose up to approximately 20 Gy, where the relative risk peaked at 14.6-fold (95% CI, 6.8-31.5). At thyroid radiation doses >20 Gy, a downturn in the dose-response relationship was observed. The ERR model that best fit the data was linear-exponential quadratic. We found that age at exposure modified the ERR linear dose term (higher radiation risk with younger age) (P < 0.001) and that sex (higher radiation risk among females) (P = 0.008) and time since exposure (higher radiation risk with longer time) (P < 0.001) modified the EAR linear dose term. None of these factors modified the exponential quadratic (high dose) term. Sex, age at exposure and time since exposure were found to be significant modifiers of the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer and as such are important factors to account for in clinical follow-up and thyroid cancer risk estimation among childhood cancer survivors.     

Germline p53 mutations in a cohort with childhood sarcoma: sex differences in cancer risk

To characterize cancer risk in heterozygous p53 mutation carriers, we analyzed cancer incidence in 56 germline p53 mutation carriers and 3,201 noncarriers from 107 kindreds ascertained through patients with childhood soft-tissue sarcoma who were treated at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. We systematically followed members in these kindreds for cancer incidence for >20 years and evaluated their p53 gene status. We found seven kindreds with germline p53 mutations that include both missense and truncation mutation types. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed similar cancer risks between 21 missense and 35 truncation p53 mutation carriers (log-rank chi(2)=0.04; P=.84). We found a significantly higher cancer risk in female carriers than in male carriers (log-rank chi(2)=12.1; P<.001), a difference not explained by an excess of sex-specific cancer. The calculated standardized incidence ratio (SIR) showed that mutation carriers had a risk for all types of cancer that was much higher than that for the general population (SIR = 41.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 29.9-55.0) whereas noncarriers had a risk for all types of cancer that was similar to that in the general population (SIR = 0.9; 95% CI 0.8-1.0). The calculated SIRs showed a >100-fold higher risk of sarcoma, female breast cancer, and hematologic malignancies for the p53 mutation carriers and agreed with the findings of an earlier segregation analysis based on the same cohort. These results quantitatively illustrated the spectrum of cancer risk in germline p53 mutation carriers and will provide valuable reference for the evaluation and treatment of patients with cancer.     

Solid cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors: 1958-1998

This is the second general report on radiation effects on the incidence of solid cancers (cancers other than malignancies of the blood or blood-forming organs) among members of the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The analyses were based on 17,448 first primary cancers (including non-melanoma skin cancer) diagnosed from 1958 through 1998 among 105,427 cohort members with individual dose estimates who were alive and not known to have had cancer prior to 1958. Radiation-associated relative risks and excess rates were considered for all solid cancers as a group, for 19 specific cancer sites or groups of sites, and for five histology groups. Poisson regression methods were used to investigate the magnitude of the radiation-associated risks, the shape of the dose response, how these risks vary with gender, age at exposure, and attained age, and the evidence for inter-site variation in the levels and patterns of the excess risk. For all solid cancers as a group, it was estimated that about 850 (about 11%) of the cases among cohort members with colon doses in excess of 0.005 Gy were associated with atomic bomb radiation exposure. The data were consistent with a linear dose response over the 0- to 2-Gy range, while there was some flattening of the dose response at higher doses. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant dose response when analyses were limited to cohort members with doses of 0.15 Gy or less. The excess risks for all solid cancers as a group and many individual sites exhibit significant variation with gender, attained age, and age at exposure. It was estimated that, at age 70 after exposure at age 30, solid cancer rates increase by about 35% per Gy (90% CI 28%; 43%) for men and 58% per Gy (43%; 69%) for women. For all solid cancers as a group, the excess relative risk (ERR per Gy) decreases by about 17% per decade increase in age at exposure (90% CI 7%; 25%) after allowing for attained-age effects, while the ERR decreased in proportion to attained age to the power 1.65 (90% CI 2.1; 1.2) after allowing for age at exposure. Despite the decline in the ERR with attained age, excess absolute rates appeared to increase throughout the study period, providing further evidence that radiation-associated increases in cancer rates persist throughout life regardless of age at exposure. For all solid cancers as a group, women had somewhat higher excess absolute rates than men (F:M ratio 1.4; 90% CI 1.1; 1.8), but this difference disappears when the analysis was restricted to non-gender-specific cancers. Significant radiation-associated increases in risk were seen for most sites, including oral cavity, esophagus, stomach, colon, liver, lung, non-melanoma skin, breast, ovary, bladder, nervous system and thyroid. Although there was no indication of a statistically significant dose response for cancers of the pancreas, prostate and kidney, the excess relative risks for these sites were also consistent with that for all solid cancers as a group. Dose-response estimates for cancers of the rectum, gallbladder and uterus were not statistically significant, and there were suggestions that the risks for these sites may be lower than those for all solid cancers combined. However, there was emerging evidence from the present data that exposure as a child may increase risks of cancer of the body of the uterus. Elevated risks were seen for all of the five broadly classified histological groups considered, including squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma, other epithelial cancers, sarcomas and other non-epithelial cancers. Although the data were limited, there was a significant radiation-associated increase in the risk of cancer occurring in adolescence and young adulthood. In view of the persisting increase in solid cancer risks, the LSS should continue to provide important new information on radiation exposure and solid cancer risks for at least another 15 to 20 years.