Diversification rates and the latitudinal gradient of diversity in mammals

The latitudinal gradient of species richness has frequently been attributed to higher diversification rates of tropical groups. In order to test this hypothesis for mammals, we used a set of 232 genera taken from a mammalian supertree and, additionally, we reconstructed dated Bayesian phylogenetic trees of 100 genera. For each genus, diversification rate was estimated taking incomplete species sampling into account and latitude was assigned considering the heterogeneity in species distribution ranges. For both datasets, we found that the average diversification rate was similar among all latitudinal bands. Furthermore, when we used phylogenetically independent contrasts, we did not find any significant correlation between latitude and diversification parameters, including different estimates of speciation and extinction rates. Thus, other factors, such as the dynamics of dispersal through time, may be required to explain the latitudinal gradient of diversity in mammals.     

Diversity Dynamics in Nymphalidae Butterflies: Effect of Phylogenetic Uncertainty on Diversification Rate Shift Estimates

The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution.     

The phylogenetic signal of diversification rates

Hypotheses to explain the causes of diversity gradients have increasingly focused on the factors that actually change species numbers, namely speciation, extinction and dispersal. A common assumption of many of these hypotheses is that there should be phylogenetic signal in diversification rates, yet this assumption has rarely been tested explicitly. In this study, we compile a large data set including 328,219 species of plants, mammals, amphibians and squamates to assess the level of phylogenetic signal in their diversification rates. Significant phylogenetic signal was detected in all data sets, except for squamates, suggesting not only that closely related clades indeed might share similar diversification rates, but also that the level of phylogenetic signal might vary considerably between them. Moreover, there were intriguing differences among taxa in the rate of decay in phylogenetic autocorrelation over time, underscoring the existence of taxon-specific patterns of phylogenetic autocorrelation. These results have important implications for the development of more realistic models of species diversification.     

Primate extinction risk and historical patterns of speciation and extinction in relation to body mass

Body mass is thought to influence diversification rates, but previous studies have produced ambiguous results. We investigated patterns of diversification across 100 trees obtained from a new Bayesian inference of primate phylogeny that sampled trees in proportion to their posterior probabilities. First, we used simulations to assess the validity of previous studies that used linear models to investigate the links between IUCN Red List status and body mass. These analyses support the use of linear models for ordinal ranked data on threat status, and phylogenetic generalized linear models revealed a significant positive correlation between current extinction risk and body mass across our tree block. We then investigated historical patterns of speciation and extinction rates using a recently developed maximum-likelihood method. Specifically, we predicted that body mass correlates positively with extinction rate because larger bodied organisms reproduce more slowly, and body mass correlates negatively with speciation rate because smaller bodied organisms are better able to partition niche space. We failed to find evidence that extinction rates covary with body mass across primate phylogeny. Similarly, the speciation rate was generally unrelated to body mass, except in some tests that indicated an increase in the speciation rate with increasing body mass. Importantly, we discovered that our data violated a key assumption of sample randomness with respect to body mass. After correcting for this bias, we found no association between diversification rates and mass.     

Ecology predicts large-scale patterns of phylogenetic diversification in birds

One of the most striking patterns in evolutionary biology is that clades may differ greatly in the number of species they contain. Numerous hypotheses have been put forward to explain this phenomenon, and several have been tested using phylogenetic methods. Remarkably, however, all such tests performed to date have been characterized by modest explanatory power, which has generated an interest in explanations stressing the importance of random processes. Here we make use of phylogenetic methods to test whether ecological variables, typically ignored in previous models, may explain phylogenetic tree imbalance in birds. We show that diversification rate possesses an intermediate phylogenetic signal across families. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we then build a multipredictor model that explains more than 50% of the variation in diversification rate among clades. High annual dispersal is identified as the strongest predictor of high rates of diversification. In addition, high diversification rate is strongly associated with feeding generalization. In all but one instance, these key findings remain qualitatively unchanged when we use an alternative phylogeny and methodology and when small clades, containing five species or less, are excluded. Taken together, these results suggest that large-scale patterns in avian diversification can be explained by variation in intrinsic biology.     

Neutral biodiversity theory can explain the imbalance of phylogenetic trees but not the tempo of their diversification

Numerous evolutionary studies have sought to explain the distribution of diversity across the limbs of the tree of life. At the same time, ecological studies have sought to explain differences in diversity and relative abundance within and among ecological communities. Traditionally, these patterns have been considered separately, but models that consider processes operating at the level of individuals, such as neutral biodiversity theory (NBT), can provide a link between them. Here, we compare evolutionary dynamics across a suite of NBT models. We show that NBT can yield phylogenetic tree topologies with imbalance closely resembling empirical observations. In general, metacommunities that exhibit greater disparity in abundance are characterized by more imbalanced phylogenetic trees. However, NBT fails to capture the tempo of diversification as represented by the distribution of branching events through time. We suggest that population-level processes might therefore help explain the asymmetry of phylogenetic trees, but that tree shape might mislead estimates of evolutionary rates unless the diversification process is modeled explicitly.     

Multilocus analyses of an Antarctic fish species flock (Teleostei, Notothenioidei, Trematominae): phylogenetic approach and test of the early-radiation event

Clades that have undergone episodes of rapid cladogenesis are challenging from a phylogenetic point of view. They are generally characterised by short or missing internal branches in phylogenetic trees and by conflicting topologies among individual gene trees. This may be the case of the subfamily Trematominae, a group of marine teleosts of coastal Antarctic waters, which is considered to have passed through a period of rapid diversification. Despite much phylogenetic attention, the relationships among Trematominae species remain unclear. In contrast to previous studies that were mostly based on concatenated datasets of mitochondrial and/or single nuclear loci, we applied various single-locus and multilocus phylogenetic approaches to sequences from 11 loci (eight nuclear) and we also used several methods to assess the hypothesis of a radiation event in Trematominae evolution. Diversification rate analyses support the hypothesis of a period of rapid diversification during Trematominae history and only a few nodes in the hypothetical species tree were consistently resolved with various phylogenetic methods. We detected significant discrepancies among trees from individual genes of these species, most probably resulting from incomplete lineage sorting, suggesting that concatenation of loci is not the most appropriate way to investigate Trematominae species interrelationships. These data also provide information about the possible effects of historic climate changes on the diversification rate of this group of fish.     

净多样化速率和进化时间对虎耳草目科间物种多样性差异的影响

不同生物类群包含的物种数目常存在巨大差异,这是生态学和生物学研究中普遍观察到的现象。然而,这一现象产生的原因仍然是未解之谜。从宏观进化的角度,进化时间假说和多样化速率假说是两个比较流行的假说。进化时间假说认为类群的演化时间越长,积累的物种丰富度越高;而多样化速率假说认为类群的净多样化速率越快,则其物种丰富度越高。为验证这两个假说,该文以一棵包含1 539个物种化石定年的虎耳草目系统发育树为基础,通过宏观进化分析获取了虎耳草目内15个科的物种形成和灭绝速率,并计算了每个科的平均多样化速率。结果表明：(1)虎耳草目的物种多样化速率有着增加的趋势,并且多样化速率的增加主要出现在温带和高山类群,如茶藨子科、景天科和芍药科等。(2)采用系统发育广义最小二乘模型(PGLS)和线性回归模型(LM)结果表明,虎耳草目15个科的物种丰富度与科的分化时间和科内物种的最近共同祖先年龄都没有显著相关关系,而与净多样化速率显著正相关(R² =0.380,P<0.05)。该研究支持了多样化速率假说,认为不同科的净多样化速率的差异是导致虎耳草目科间物种数目差异的主要原因之一。全球气候变冷...     

Resolution of a concatenation/coalescence kerfuffle: partitioned coalescence support and a robust family‐level tree for Mammalia

Recent phylogenetic analyses of a large dataset for mammalian families (169 taxa, 26 loci) portray contrasting results. Supermatrix (concatenation) methods support a generally robust tree with only a few inconsistently resolved polytomies, whereas MP‐EST coalescence analysis of the same dataset yields a weakly supported tree that conflicts with many traditionally recognized clades. Here, we evaluate this discrepancy via improved coalescence analyses with reference to the rich history of phylogenetic studies on mammals. This integration clearly demonstrates that both supermatrix and coalescence analyses of just 26 loci yield a congruent, well‐supported phylogenetic hypothesis for Mammalia. Discrepancies between published studies are explained by implementation of overly simple DNA substitution models, inadequate tree‐search routines and limitations of the MP‐EST method. We develop a simple measure, partitioned coalescence support (PCS), which summarizes the distribution of support and conflict among gene trees for a given clade. Extremely high PCS scores for outlier gene trees at two nodes in the mammalian tree indicate a troubling bias in the MP‐EST method. We conclude that in this age of phylogenomics, a solid understanding of systematics fundamentals, choice of valid methodology and a broad knowledge of a clade's taxonomic history are still required to yield coherent phylogenetic inferences.     

Habitat use affects morphological diversification in dragon lizards

Habitat use may lead to variation in diversity among evolutionary lineages because habitats differ in the variety of ways they allow for species to make a living. Here, we show that structural habitats contribute to differential diversification of limb and body form in dragon lizards (Agamidae). Based on phylogenetic analysis and ancestral state reconstructions for 90 species, we find that multiple lineages have independently adopted each of four habitat use types: rock‐dwelling, terrestriality, semi‐arboreality and arboreality. Given these reconstructions, we fit models of evolution to species’ morphological trait values and find that rock‐dwelling and arboreality limit diversification relative to terrestriality and semi‐arboreality. Models preferred by Akaike information criterion infer slower rates of size and shape evolution in lineages inferred to occupy rocks and trees, and model‐averaged rate estimates are slowest for these habitat types. These results suggest that ground‐dwelling facilitates ecomorphological differentiation and that use of trees or rocks impedes diversification.     

Exploring the relationship between sequence similarity and accurate phylogenetic trees

We have characterized the relationship between accurate phylogenetic reconstruction and sequence similarity, testing whether high levels of sequence similarity can consistently produce accurate evolutionary trees. We generated protein families with known phylogenies using a modified version of the PAML/EVOLVER program that produces insertions and deletions as well as substitutions. Protein families were evolved over a range of 100-400 point accepted mutations; at these distances 63% of the families shared significant sequence similarity. Protein families were evolved using balanced and unbalanced trees, with ancient or recent radiations. In families sharing statistically significant similarity, about 60% of multiple sequence alignments were 95% identical to true alignments. To compare recovered topologies with true topologies, we used a score that reflects the fraction of clades that were correctly clustered. As expected, the accuracy of the phylogenies was greatest in the least divergent families. About 88% of phylogenies clustered over 80% of clades in families that shared significant sequence similarity, using Bayesian, parsimony, distance, and maximum likelihood methods. However, for protein families with short ancient branches (ancient radiation), only 30% of the most divergent (but statistically significant) families produced accurate phylogenies, and only about 70% of the second most highly conserved families, with median expectation values better than 10(-60), produced accurate trees. These values represent upper bounds on expected tree accuracy for sequences with a simple divergence history; proteins from 700 Giardia families, with a similar range of sequence similarities but considerably more gaps, produced much less accurate trees. For our simulated insertions and deletions, correct multiple sequence alignments did not perform much better than those produced by T-COFFEE, and including sequences with expressed sequence tag-like sequencing errors did not significantly decrease phylogenetic accuracy. In general, although less-divergent sequence families produce more accurate trees, the likelihood of estimating an accurate tree is most dependent on whether radiation in the family was ancient or recent. Accuracy can be improved by combining genes from the same organism when creating species trees or by selecting protein families with the best bootstrap values in comprehensive studies.     

Bats, clocks, and rocks: diversification patterns in Chiroptera

Identifying nonrandom clade diversification is a critical first step toward understanding the evolutionary processes underlying any radiation and how best to preserve future phylogenetic diversity. However, differences in diversification rates have not been quantitatively assessed for the majority of groups because of the lack of necessary analytical tools (e.g., complete species-level phylogenies, estimates of divergence times, and robust statistics which incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty and test appropriate null models of clade growth). Here, for the first time, we investigate diversification rate heterogeneity in one of the largest groups studied thus far, the bats (Mammalia: Chiroptera). We use a recent, robust statistical approach (whole-tree likelihood-based relative rate tests) on complete dated species-level supertree phylogenies. As has been demonstrated previously for most other groups, among-lineage diversification rate within bats has not been constant. However, we show that bat diversification is more heterogeneous than in other mammalian clades thus far studied. The whole-tree likelihood-based relative rates tests suggest that clades within the families Phyllostomidae and Molossidae underwent a number of significant changes in relative diversification rate. There is also some evidence for rate shifts within Pteropodidae, Emballonuridae, Rhinolophidae, Hipposideridae, and Vespertilionidae, but the significance of these shifts depends on polytomy resolution within each family. Diversification rate in bats has also not been constant, with the largest diversification rate shifts occurring 30-50 million years ago, a time overlapping with the greatest number of shifts in flowering plant diversification rates.     

Differential loss of ancestral gene families as a source of genomic divergence in animals

A phylogenetic approach was used to reconstruct the pattern of an apparent loss of 2106 ancestral gene families in four animal genomes (Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila melanogaster, human and fugu). Substantially higher rates of loss of ancestral gene families were found in the invertebrates than in the vertebrates. These results indicate that the differential loss of ancestral gene families can be a significant factor in the evolutionary diversification of organisms.     

Morphometrics of the avian small intestine compared with that of nonflying mammals: a phylogenetic approach

Flying animals may experience a selective constraint on gut volume because the energetic cost of flight increases and maneuverability decreases with greater digesta load. The small intestine is the primary site of absorption of most nutrients (e.g., carbohydrates, proteins, fat) in both birds and mammals. Therefore, we used a phylogenetically informed approach to compare small intestine morphometric measurements of birds with those of nonflying mammals and to test for effects of diet within each clade. We also compared the fit of nonphylogenetic and phylogenetic models to test for phylogenetic signal after accounting for effects of body mass, clade, and/or diet. We provide a new MATLAB program (Regressionv2.m) that facilitates a flexible model-fitting approach in comparative studies. As compared with nonflying mammals, birds had 51% less nominal small intestine surface area (area of a smooth bore tube) and 32% less volume. For animals <365 g in body mass, birds also had significantly shorter small intestines (20%-33% shorter, depending on body mass). Diet was also a significant factor explaining variation in small intestine nominal surface area of both birds and nonflying mammals, small intestine mass of mammals, and small intestine volume of both birds and nonflying mammals. On the basis of the phylogenetic trees used in our analyses, small intestine length and nominal surface area exhibited statistically significant phylogenetic signal in birds but not in mammals. Thus, for birds, related species tended to be similar in small intestine length and nominal surface area, even after accounting for relations with body mass and diet. A reduced small intestine in birds may decrease the capacity for breakdown and active absorption of nutrients. Birds do not seem to compensate for reduced digestive and absorptive capacity via a longer gut retention time of food, but we found some evidence that birds have an increased mucosal surface area via a greater villus area, although not enough to compensate for reduced nominal surface area. We predict that without increased rate of enzyme hydrolysis and/or mediated transport and without increased passive absorption of water-soluble nutrients, birds may operate with a reduced digestive capacity, compared with that of nonflying mammals, to meet an increase in metabolic needs (i.e., a reduced spare capacity).     

The shape and temporal dynamics of phylogenetic trees arising from geographic speciation

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth-death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth-death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.     

LIKELIHOOD OF ANCESTOR STATES IN ADAPTIVE RADIATION

Theories of ecological diversification make predictions about the timing and ordering of character state changes through history. These theories are testable by “reconstructing” ancestor states using phylogenetic trees and measurements of contemporary species. Here we use maximum likelihood to estimate and evaluate the accuracy of ancestor reconstructions. We present likelihoods of discrete ancestor states and derive probability distributions for continuous ancestral traits. The methods are applied to several examples: diets of ancestral Darwin's finches; origin of inquilinism in gall wasps; microhabitat partitioning and body size evolution in scrubwrens; digestive enzyme evolution in artiodactyl mammals; origin of a sexually selected male trait, the sword, in platies and swordtails; and evolution of specialization in Anolis lizards. When changes between discrete character states are rare, the maximum-likelihood results are similar to parsimony estimates. In this case the accuracy of estimates is often high, with the exception of some nodes deep in the tree. If change is frequent then reconstructions are highly uncertain, especially of distant ancestors. Ancestor states for continuous traits are typically highly uncertain. We conclude that measures of uncertainty are useful and should always be provided, despite simplistic assumptions about the probabilistic models that underlie them. If uncertainty is too high, reconstruction should be abandoned in favor of approaches that fit different models of trait evolution to species data and phylogenetic trees, taking into account the range of ancestor states permitted by the data.     

USING PHYLOGENETIC TREES TO STUDY SPECIATION AND EXTINCTION

One tool in the study of the forces that determine species diversity is the null, or simple, model. The fit of predictions to observations, good or bad, leads to a useful paradigm or to knowledge of forces not accounted for, respectively. It is shown how simple models of speciation and extinction lead directly to predictions of the structure of phylogenetic trees. These predictions include both essential attributes of phylogenetic trees: lengths, in the form of internode distances; and topology, in the form of internode links. These models also lead directly to statistical tests which can be used to compare predictions with phylogenetic trees that are estimated from data. Two different models and eight data sets are considered. A model without species extinction consistently yielded predictions closer to observations than did a model that included extinction. It is proposed that it may be useful to think of the diversification of recently formed monophyletic groups as a random speciation process without extinction.     

Phylogenetic properties of Tertiary relict flora in the east Asian continental islands: imprint of climatic niche conservatism and in situ diversification

Understanding biodiversity patterns on islands has long been a central aim in ecology and conservation biology. Island‐specific biogeographical processes play substantial roles in the formation of endemic biota. Here, we examined how climate niche conservatism and geohistorical factors are interactively associated with in situ diversification of Tertiary relict flora in the east Asian continental islands. We generated two novel datasets for species distribution and phylogeny that included all of the known vascular plant species in Japan (5575). Then we tested phylogenetic signal of climatic tolerance, in terms of absolute minimum temperature and water balance, and explored environmental predictors of phylogenetic structure (evolutionary derivedness and clustering) of species assemblages. Although phylogenetic signal of climatic tolerance was significant across the phylogeny of most species, the strength of climatic niche conservatism differed among ferns, gymnosperms, angiosperm trees, and angiosperm herbs. For angiosperm trees, cold temperatures acted as environmental filters that generated phylogenetic derivedness/clustering of species assemblages. For fern and angiosperm herb species, however, phylogenetic properties were not associated with climatic harshness. These contrasting patterns among groups reflected climate niche evolution in vascular plants with different growth forms and traits; for example, diversification of angiosperm trees (but not fern and herb) occurred in response to historical climatic cooling. More importantly, geographical constraints contributed to evolutionary radiation that resulted from isolation by distance from the continent or by elevation. Quaternary climate change was also associated with clade‐specific radiation in refugial habitats. The degree to which geographical, geological, and palaeoclimatic variables explain the phylogenetic structure underscores the importance of isolation‐ and habitat‐stability‐related geohistorical processes in driving in situ diversification despite climatic niche conservatism. We propose that the highly endemic flora of the east Asian islands resulted from the interplay of idiosyncratic regional factors, and ecological and evolutionary processes, such as climate niche assembly and adaptive/nonadaptive radiation.     

Phylogenetic conservatism and biogeographic affinity influence woody plant species richness–climate relationships in eastern Eurasia

Mechanisms underlying species richness patterns remain a central yet controversial issue in biology. Climate has been regarded as a major determinant of species richness. However, the relative influences of different evolutionary processes, (i.e. niche conservatism, diversification rate and time for speciation) on species richness–climate relationships remain to be tested. Here, using newly compiled distribution maps for 11 422 woody plant species in eastern Eurasia, we estimated species richness patterns for all species and for families with tropical and temperate affinities separately, and explored the phylogenetic signals in species richness patterns of different families and their relationships with contemporary climate and climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We further compared the effects of niche conservatism (represented by contemporary-ancestral climatic niches differences), diversification rate and time for speciation (represented by family age) on variation in the slopes of species richness–climate relationships. We found that winter coldness was the best predictor for species richness patterns of most tropical families while Quaternary climate change was the best predictor for those of most temperate families. Species richness patterns of closely-related families were more similar than those of distantly-related families within eudicots, and significant phylogenetic signals characterized the slopes of species richness–climate relationships across all angiosperm families. Contemporary-ancestral climatic niche differences dominated variation in the relationships between family-level species richness and most climate variables. Our results indicate significant phylogenetic conservatism in family-level species richness patterns and their relationships with contemporary climate within eudicots. These findings shed light on the mechanisms underlying large-scale species richness patterns and suggest that ancestral climatic niche may influence the evolution of species richness–climate relationships in plants through niche conservatism.     

Biogeographical basis of recent phenotypic divergence among birds: a global study of subspecies richness

Theory predicts that biogeographic factors should play a central role in promoting population divergence and speciation. Previous empirical studies into biogeography and diversification have been relatively restricted in terms of the geographical area, phylogenetic scope, and the range of biogeographic factors considered. Here we present a global analysis of allopatric phenotypic divergence (measured as subspecies richness) across more than 9600 bird species. The main aim of this study was to examine the extent to which biogeographical factors can explain patterns of phenotypic divergence. Analysis of the taxonomic distribution of subspecies among species suggests that subspecies formation and extinction have occurred at a considerably faster rate than has species formation. However, the observed distribution departs from the expectation under a random birth-death model of diversification. Across 19 phylogenetic trees, we find no significant linear relationship between species age and subspecies richness, implying that species age is a poor predictor of subspecies richness. Both subspecies richness and subspecies diversification rate are found to exhibit low phylogenetic signal, meaning that closely related species do not tend to possess similar numbers of subspecies. As predicted by theory, high subspecies richness was associated with large breeding range size, island dwelling, inhabitation of montane regions, habitat heterogeneity, and low latitude. Of these factors, breeding range size was the variable that explained the most variation. Unravelling whether species that have invaded previously glacial areas have more or fewer subspecies than expected proves to be complicated due to a covariation between the postglacial colonization, latitude, geographic range size, and subspecies richness. However, the effect of postglacial colonization on subspecies richness appears to be small. Mapping the distribution of species' subspecies richness globally reveals geographical patterns that correspond to many of the predictions of the statistical models, but may also reflect geographical variation in taxonomic practice. Overall, we demonstrate that biogeographic models can explain about 30% of the global variation in subspecies richness in birds.