Demographic analysis of the variation in the rates of multiple maternities in Sweden since 1751

To elucidate the causes and mechanisms of twinning and higher multifetal maternities, we have taken advantage of the statistical sources of Sweden, where continuous statistics for the whole population are the oldest available. We found strong secular and regional fluctuations. The rates of multiple maternities were the highest during the last three decades of the 18th century, when the twinning rate was more than 17 per 1,000, the triplet rate was more than 3 per 10,000, and the quadruplet rate was almost 7 per 1 million maternities. During 1849-1873 the twinning rate in Sweden was 14.2 per 1,000, but this rate showed great regional differences, being 18.0 per 1,000 on the island of Gotland and 12.6 per 1,000 in the county of Alvsborg. During this period the twinning rate in the countryside in the county of Stockholm was 20.4, but in the city of Stockholm it was only 14.1 per 1,000. In Sweden after the 1930s there was a marked decrease in the twinning rate, which by the 1960s had fallen to only about half of what it had been two centuries earlier. The corresponding reductions for triplet and quadruplet rates were about 75%. The aim of this paper was to study the temporal and regional variations in multiple maternities in Sweden from 1751 to 1960 based on demographic and some socioeconomic data for the counties. We confirmed our earlier studies that maternal age and parity cannot satisfactorily explain the secular and regional differences in the twinning rates. In contrast to studies in France (1901-1968), we found no unequivocal association between the twinning rates and the crude birth rates. The correlation coefficients between the twinning rate and the crude birth rate showed statistically significant regional and temporal variations. After eliminating the temporal trends, regional differences in the correlation coefficients remained. The twinning rates for the counties seem to converge toward a common low level, 10-12 per 1,000. The observed convergence toward relatively similar levels may be caused by the increased matrimonial migration distances and decreased endogamy of the citizens as a consequence of better communications. The increased urbanization and industrialization that started in the last decades of the 19th century broke up the old static agrarian isolates and caused Sweden, within 2-3 generations, to develop from a poor nation to one of the most prosperous in the world. A more urban and affluent lifestyle, a better diet, and increased stress and sedentary occupations may have reduced the physical capacity of mothers to carry gestations with multiple embryos or fetuses to completion.     

Statistical analysis of the seasonal variation in the twinning rate.

There have been few secular analyses of the seasonal variation in human twinning and the results are conflicting. One reason for this is that the seasonal pattern of twinning varies in different populations and at different periods. Another reason is that the statistical methods used are different. The changing pattern of seasonal variation in twinning rates and total maternities in Denmark was traced for three periods (1855-69, 1870-94, and 1937-84). Two alternative methods of analysis are considered. The method of Walter and Elwood and a trigonometric regression model give closely similar results. The seasonal distribution of twin maternities for the periods in the 19th century showed highly significant departures. For both twin and general maternities, the main peaks can be seen from March to June and a local peak in September. During the spring-summer season the twinning rates were higher than the total birth rates, indicating a stronger seasonal variation for the twin maternities than for the general maternities. For 1937-84, there was a similar, but less accentuated, pattern. Studies of other populations are compared with the Danish results. The more accentuated seasonal variation of twinning in the past indicate that some factors in the past affected women during summer-autumn and around Christmas time, making them more fecund and particularly to be more prone to polyovulation and/or more able to complete a gestation with multiple embryos.     

Seasonal variation of livebirths, stillbirths, extramarital births and twin maternities in Switzerland.

A study was made of the seasonal variation in all births, and births according to marital status, multiplicity and birth status (live and still) in Switzerland recorded between 1876 and 1990. To obtain seasonal variation in as pure as possible form, our analyses are based on rates. When comparing the seasonality in data sets showing markedly different levels, standardised indices were used. Assuming the length of pregnancies with twins to be about one month shorter than for pregnancies with singletons, lagged twinning rates were calculated but, in comparison with actual twinning rates, the general seasonal variation remained. Therefore, this study was based on actual twinning rates. A monotonic increase in the amplitude of the seasonal variation in general births was noted for the period 1876-1930, with strong seasonal variation holding for 1921-1980. After that, a marked decline in the amplitude can be observed. Seasonality of both all births and twin maternities showed very similar pattern for the periods 1876-1930 and 1969-1990, with maxima in the spring (March-May) and troughs in late autumn (October-December). Twin maternities showed a strong seasonality for the period 1876-1930, being about 20% higher in March than in October. The twinning rate in the period 1876-1930 was about 2.6 per thousand units higher than in the period 1969-90. For twin maternities there was also a stronger seasonal variation during the earlier period than during the later one. The pattern of the seasonal variation for extramarital births, showing a maximum in February (conceptions in May-June) and a minimum in August (conceptions in November-December) with a difference of no less than 24% was more marked than for the marital births. It seems likely that this seasonality of extra-marital maternities was due mainly to seasonal variation of coital rates and multiple ovulation in the early summer months coinciding with optima of light, temperature and food supply. A strong reduction in the rate of stillbirths (gestational age more than 29 weeks) was observed during the twentieth century. The stillbirth rate declined from about 40 per 1000 in the 1870s to fewer than 5 per 1000 in the 1980s. Irrespective of this strong decline in the stillbirth rate, the same seasonal rhythm was noticed throughout the period with high stillbirth rates among births around March and low rates during the summer and autumn.     

Temporal differences in the regional twinning rates in Sweden after 1750.

When twinning rates are studied, maternal age and parity should be considered. Data on parity are seldom available. We studied information about the mean parity, using the gross reproduction rate, the total fertility rate and the crude birth rate. These are strongly correlated with the mean parity. The crude birth rate is more readily available than the gross reproduction rate or the total fertility rate. Earlier studies have shown that it is difficult to model variations in the twinning rate with data for the macrolevel. In this study these findings are explained by theoretical analyses and illustrated by empirical data. Sweden, having the oldest continuous population statistics and high twinning rates, offers excellent possibilities for analyses of the twinning rate. We considered data for the counties of Gotland, Alvsborg and Stockholm and the city of Stockholm from 1749 to 1960 and for Sweden until 1996. For Alvsborg, the twinning rate was low for the whole period, showing no statistically significant decreasing trend. It is mainly about 11-14 per thousand, which is only 50-60% of the twinning rate in Gotland in the 18th century. In Gotland, in the county of Stockholm, in the city of Stockholm and in Sweden as a whole, the decreasing trends in the twinning rate were statistically significant. The decreasing twinning rates converge towards the low twinning rate of Alvsborg. After standardization of the twinning rate, the differences remained and the low rate in Alvsborg could not be explained by maternal age.     

Weinberg's differential rule reconsidered

A central problem in research on twins is the estimation of the rates of monozygotic and dizygotic twin maternities. The estimation usually follows Weinberg's differential rule. According to this rule, the rate of dizygotic twinning is twice the rate of twin maternities in which the twins are of opposite sex. The monozygotic twinning rate is the difference between the rates of same-sex and opposite-sex twin sets. Weinberg's differential rule is implicitly based on the assumptions that the probability of a male equals the probability of a female and that the sexes in a dizygotic twin set are independent. Although Weinberg's differential rule has been the target of continuing discussions, the reliability of these assumptions has never been conclusively verified or rejected. In this study we present new variance formulas for the monozygotic and dizygotic twinning rates obtained using Weinberg's differential rule and stress that these new formulas have to be used. We analyze the accuracy of Weinberg's differential rule by considering alternative attempts. Especially, we build a general likelihood function and show that the maximum-likelihood estimates differ only slightly from the rates obtained using Weinberg's differential rule. In addition, our methods are applied to twinning data from Finland and Sweden. We compare our results with findings in the literature. In conclusion, our findings indicate that Weinberg's differential rule is rather robust and that despite its simplicity, it gives reliable results when official birth registers are analyzed.     

A multiple pregnancy register in the north of England.

A regional population-based Multiple Pregnancy Register was established in 1998, with the aim of collecting detailed information on multiple pregnancies to enable research into mortality and morbidity in multiples. Multiple pregnancies are notified to the Register as soon as they are detected, irrespective of whether they resulted in a spontaneous abortion, termination of pregnancy or registered birth. Nine hundred and twenty-six twin pregnancies were recorded during 1998-99, giving a twinning rate of 14.8 per 1000 maternities (rate at birth 13.0 per 1000 maternities). Sixty one per cent of twin pregnancies were detected before 13 weeks of gestation. Chorionicity was determined in 82.6% of 849 twin maternities with at least one stillbirth or livebirth. The fetal loss rate before 24 weeks of gestation was 10.5% (194/1852). The perinatal and infant mortality rates were 40.6 per 1000 births and 32.6 per 1000 livebirths respectively. A prospective Multiple Pregnancy Register not only allows monitoring of trends in multiple birth rates and mortality, but also etiological research and long-term follow-up studies.     

A comparative study of zygotic twinning and triplet rates in eight countries, 1972-1999

Annual changes in twinning and triplet rates by zygosity were investigated in eight countries during the period 1972-1999 using vital statistics. The monozygotic (MZ) twinning rates in Denmark, Switzerland and the Slovak Republic remained more or less constant throughout this period, whereas those in England and Wales, the Federal Republic of Germany (Germany), the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Japan increased significantly year by year. With the exception of the Slovak Republic, the dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate increased significantly year by year in each country. It was 2.9 times higher in Denmark and 1.5 times higher in Germany in 1999 than in 1972, and within the same range in the other countries. With two exceptions, the MZ triplet rates remained more or less constant in each country. On the other hand, the DZ and trizygotic (TZ) triplet rates increased significantly year by year in each country. The TZ rate increased 30-fold in Germany, 16.6-fold in Japan, 11.7-fold in Switzerland, 9.7-fold in the Czech Republic, 8.7-fold in the Netherlands, 6.4-fold in Denmark, 5.6-fold in England and Wales and 3.5-fold in the Slovak Republic. The higher DZ twinning rate and higher DZ and TZ triplet rates since 1983 have been attributed to the higher proportion of mothers being treated with ovulation-inducing hormones and in vitro fertilization (IVF) in Denmark, England and Wales, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Japan. After the introduction of fertility drugs and IVF, variations in the DZ twinning and triplet rates and the TZ triplet rates were not only due to biological factors, but also depended on the popularity of fertility drugs and IVF in each country. In the Slovak Republic, where human fertility might not be affected by some adverse environmental factors, the DZ:MZ ratio remained constant during the period 1972-1999.     

Recent secular trends in dizygotic twinning rates in Europe

The author analyzes trends of declining maternal-age-specific dizygotic twinning rates in Europe for the period 1960-80. Using data from country publications on vital statistics, rates were available for most European countries; no useful data was, however, available for Albania, Romania, and Turkey. Dizygotic twinning rates declined for most countries tries through the 1970s, yet ceased their decline in the 1970s following initial drops in the 1960s were England and Wales, Scotland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Switzerland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. In the absence of concrete reasons for the observed twinning rates declines and subsequent decline cessation in several countries, the author hypothesizes potential causes. It is speculated that declining sperm quality over the period is related to the declines in European dizygotic twinning rates. Specifically, environmental pollution may have been at the root of deteriorating sperm quality, which in turn fueled the observed declines in dizygotic twinning rates. Cessation of the rate declines for selected countries in the 1970s may be related to the removal of certain polluting environmental agents from those countries. Forming 2 geographic European subregions, countries experiencing rate decline cessation or increase may have common elements to their environmental policy which foster the improvement of sperm quality. Examination of regulations regarding certain agents in these countries within a few years of 1970 may help identify agents responsible for dizygotic twinning rate trends in most European countries. The author also suggests that rate decline cessation may have stemmed from an increase in hormonally-induced twinning, counterbalancing the decline in natural twinning over the period.     

Twin seasonality in a rural Catalonian population

The seasonality of twinning in the Spanish populations has not been studied until now. Differences between seasonal distribution of the twin conceptions and those of the single births have been observed in other populations. The aim of this work is to explore the frequency of twinning in a rural population from Catalonia during the nineteenth century, as well as the seasonality patterns characterizing each of the twinning types. Data corresponding to all births recorded at Tortosa (South Catalonia) from 1801 to 1900 have been analyzed in order to study the twinning distribution. The distribution of the moving averages of the monthly rates of twins shows a peak in autumn. Twinning distribution differs from the total births' distribution in Tortosa. This fact is very clear in the case of unlike-sexed twins that have their greater incidence in the last quarter of the year, while the total maternities have their peak in the first one.     

Seasonality of birth and sex ratio in Tehran, Iran

234 218 births (1975-1983) from a hospital in Tehran have been analysed for seasonality of birth and sex ratio. The results show more births in winter and less births in fall. The sex ratio is higher in summer and lower in fall. The occurrence of multibirths shows higher twinning and triplet rates in spring and fall, respectively, whereas lower twinning and triplet rates occur in winter and summer, respectively. It could be demonstrated that geographical factors influence the rates of births and multibirths as well as the sex ratio.     

Standardization of the twinning rate

There is a great interest in comparing twinning rates. These comparisons can be performed between different time periods for a specific population, between different regions within the same country, and between different populations. However, there are several factors (maternal age, parity, urbanization, etc.) that influence the twinning rate. The most dominant one is maternal age, and because the age distribution of the mother varies, it is necessary to standardize the data to make these comparisons. If we want to compare the twinning rates in different countries, we have to face the problem that the composition of the data from different countries may differ to a great extent. The applicable method is determined by the data of the lowest quality. Often the available data do not allow the traditional (direct and/or indirect) methods of standardization. Under such circumstances other methods have to be used. Earlier, Fellman and Eriksson (1987) proposed and successfully applied a new method. In this article we discuss the standardization problem in more detail. We suggest different methods and apply them to different data on twinning from Australia, Finland, and Baden-Württemberg (West Germany). The new standardization methods give standardized twinning rates similar to the rates obtained by traditional methods. It is noted that, irrespective of standardization method, changes in maternal age alone cannot explain temporal or regional variations in the twinning rate. Other factors that may raise or lower the twinning rate are decreasing parity, sociodemographic changes with increased communication, which causes the breakup of isolates, and deteriorating physical condition of mothers as a result of increased industrialization and urbanization.     

Twinning and heteropaternity in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

Unlike monozygotic (MZ) twins, dizygotic (DZ) twins develop from separate ova. The resulting twins can have different sires if the fertilizing sperm comes from different males. Routine paternity testing of a pair of same-sexed chimpanzee twins born to a female housed with two males indicated that the twins were sired by two different males. DNA typing of 22 short-tandem repeat (STR) loci demonstrated that these twins were not MZ twins but heteropaternal DZ twins. Reproductive data from 1926-2002 at five domestic chimpanzee colonies, including 52 twins and two triplets in 1,865 maternities, were used to estimate total twinning rates and the MZ and DZ components. The average chimpanzee MZ twinning rate (0.43%) equaled the average human MZ rate (0.48%). However, the chimpanzee DZ twinning rate (2.36%) was over twice the human average, and higher than all but the fertility-enhanced human populations of Nigeria. Similarly high twinning rates among African chimpanzees indicated that these estimates were not artifacts of captivity. Log-linear analyses of maternal and paternal effects on recurrent twinning indicated that females who twinned previously had recurrence risks five times greater than average, while evidence for a paternal twinning effect was weak. Chimpanzee twinning rates appear to be elevated relative to corresponding estimated human rates, making twinning and possibly heteropaternity more important features of chimpanzee reproductive biology than previously recognized.     

Errors in birth registrations and coding of twins and higher order multiples.

Dizygotic compared with monozygotic conceptions are at decreased risk of fetal and infant death and serious morbidity in surviving infants. Different sex twin maternities must be dizygotic but miscoding and incorrect registration of sex and number of fetuses may lead to an incorrect assignment of zygosity. The aim of the study was to validate the coding and registration of number and sex of births in multiple pregnancies. Fetal and infant death registrations from all multiple maternities in England and Wales 1993-1998 were examined. There were 51,792 twin, 1627 triplet and 51 higher order multiple maternities that were registered. Among these there were 1926 fetal deaths, 58 of which were registered as being of indeterminate sex but were coded as male in 56 and female in 2 cases. A fetus papyraceous was registered as male in 19 and as female in 19 cases. Other fetal deaths weighing >/= 100g, with no mention of papyraceous on the death certificate, nevertheless, likely to be of indeterminate sex, were registered as male in 26 and as female in 23 cases. In 13 maternities, the number of infants registered at birth was less than the number mentioned on the registration certificate. It cannot be assumed that multiple births of different registered sex are dizygotic. As surviving infants from a monozygotic multiple birth are at much greater risk of infant death and serious morbidity than dizygotic multiple births, incorrect assignment of sex has important implications for parental counselling and may have medico-legal relevance when attributing negligence as the cause of morbidity in a survivor from a multiple pregnancy.     

Constant multiple birth rates in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic until recently, 1972-1995.

Using vital statistics, yearly changes in the twinning and triplet rates by zygosity were investigated in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic during the period 1972-1995. Monozygotic (MZ) twinning rates in both countries had remained nearly constant (about 3 per 1000 total births) during that period. With a few exceptions, the dizygotic (DZ) twinning rates remained constant from 1972 to 1994, and increased in 1995 for both countries. MZ twinning rates for both countries were the lowest in Europe. As for triplet rates, overall rates increased significantly year by year in the Czech Republic, but not in the Slovak Republic. The triplet rate was significantly higher in 1995 than in the period 1972-1982 for both countries. The MZ triplet rate remained constant during that period in the Czech Republic. The trizygotic (TZ) triplet rates increased 3-fold for the Czech Republic and 4-fold for the Slovak Republic in 1972-1976 and 1992-1995. In the later period, the TZ rate was 1.5-fold higher in the Czech Republic than in the Slovak Republic. The quadruplet rate increased 2.3-fold from 2.9 per million births in 1982-1986 to 6.7 in 1992-1995 in the Czech Republic. The corresponding values were 2.7, 2.20 and 5.9-fold in the Slovak Republic. Both the Czech and the Slovak Republics were not affected by fertility drugs and assisted reproductive techniques until recently.     

Evidence for a proximate influence of winter temperature on metabolism in passerine birds.

The roles of ultimate and proximate factors in regulating basal and summit metabolic rates of passerine birds during winter have received little study, and the extent to which winter temperatures affect these variables is unknown. To address this question, we measured basal and summit (maximum cold-induced) metabolic rates in black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus), dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis), and American tree sparrows (Spizella arborea) during winters from 1991/1992 to 1997 in southeastern South Dakota. Both temperature and these metabolic rates varied within and among winters. Least-squares regression revealed significant negative relationships for normalized basal and summit metabolism against mean winter temperature for all species pooled (R2=0.62 to 0.69, P相似文献   

Resource heterogeneity does not explain the diversity–productivity relationship across a boreal island fertility gradient

Many studies at the regional scale have found either negative or hump‐shaped relationships between productivity and diversity, and some theories propose that these occur because soil resource heterogeneity is either lower or less important in more productive environments. However, there have been few explicit tests of these theories in natural ecosystems. We evaluated the relationship between soil resource heterogeneity and plant richness within a well characterized system of 30 islands in northern Sweden across which soil fertility and productivity declines, and species richness increases, as a consequence of ecosystem retrogression. On each island we created a spatially explicit grid consisting of 49 sampling points in a 9.5 m quadrat, which we used to quantify spatial heterogeneity of five soil variables (NH₄⁺‐N, amino N, PO₄^?‐P, microbial biomass, and decomposition), and plant community composition. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we estimated mean semivariograms of each variable for each island size class to compare three components of spatial heterogeneity: total variability, spatial grain, and patchiness. This analysis showed that variability within islands was usually lowest on small islands, where species richness was highest and productivity lowest; however, NH₄⁺‐N and amino N had greater patchiness and spatial grain on small islands. We did not detect any significant across‐island correlations between whole‐plot plant species richness and either whole‐plot standard deviation or coefficient of variation of any soil variable. Using partial Mantel tests, we found that mean correlation coefficients between within‐plot plant community composition and the soil variables were never significant for any island size class, and did not differ between island size classes. Our findings do not provide any evidence that soil resource heterogeneity controls the productivity–diversity relationship in this system, and suggests other mechanisms are primarily responsible.     

Correlations of phytoplankton standing crop,species diversity and dominance with physical-chemical data in a coastal salt pond

A set of environmental variables from a coastal salt pond were regressed in a stepwise fashion against the following dependent variables: phytoplankton standing crop, species diversity and dominance. Multiple variable interaction, as measured by multiple correlation coefficients yielded higher values than the coefficients obtained by regressing individual environmental variables against the dependent variables. The seasonal variation in the dependent variables could, therefore, be explained to a greater extent by the effects of multiple variables rather than single limiting factors.Financial support was supplied by a fellowship from the Jessie Smith Noyes Foundation to the senior author.     

Generating Correlation Matrices Based on the Boundaries of Their Coefficients

Correlation coefficients among multiple variables are commonly described in the form of matrices. Applications of such correlation matrices can be found in many fields, such as finance, engineering, statistics, and medicine. This article proposes an efficient way to sequentially obtain the theoretical bounds of correlation coefficients together with an algorithm to generate n n correlation matrices using any bounded random variables. Interestingly, the correlation matrices generated by this method using uniform random variables as an example produce more extreme relationships among the variables than other methods, which might be useful for modeling complex biological systems where rare cases are very important.     

Detecting spatial patterns in species composition with multiple plot similarity coefficients and singularity measures

Recently, several multiple plot similarity indices have been presented that cure some of the problems associated with the approaches for the calculation of compositional similarity for groups of plots by averaging pairwise similarities. These new indices calculate the similarity between more than two plots whilst considering the species composition on all compared plots. The resulting similarity value is true for the whole group of plots considered (called neighborhood in the following). Here, we review the possibilities for multiple plot similarity calculation and additionally explore coefficients that examine multiple plot similarity between a reference plot (named focal plot in the following) and any number of surrounding plots. The latter represent measures of singularity. Further, we establish a framework for applying these two kinds of multiple plot measures to gridded data including an algorithm for testing the significance of calculated values against random expectations. The capability of multiple plot measures for detecting species compositional gradients and local/regional hotspots within this framework is tested. For this purpose, several artificial data sets with known gradients in species composition (random, gradient, central hotspot, hotspot bottom right) are constructed on the basis of a real data set from a Tundra ecosystem in northern Sweden (Abisko). The coefficients that best reflect the positions of the plots on the realized gradients in species composition are considered as performing best with regard to pattern detection. The tested measures of multiple plot similarity and singularity produced considerably different results when applied to one real and 4 artificial data sets. The newly proposed symmetric singularity coefficient has the best overall performance which makes it suitable for local/regional hotspot detection and for incorporating local to regional similarity analyses in reserve selection procedures.     

Insurance ovulation, embryo mortality and twinning.

The 'insurance ova' hypothesis (Anderson, 1990) views dizygotic twinning as a by-product of selection for multiple ovulation which sometimes--in error--results in the birth of twins. From this viewpoint, polyovulation is a mechanism which reduces the risks of fertilization failure or embryo defect/mortality. If DZ twin births are a 'side-effect' of a mechanism which compensates for defective embryos one might predict that embryo defect rates and twinning rates will covary. This prediction is tested using national-level data on twinning rates and rates of trisomy-21 (Down's syndrome), and a strong positive correlation is found, even when controlling for maternal age. One suggestion that follows from this finding is that intra- and interpopulation variation in both twinning rates and Down's syndrome rates may result, in part, from individual variation in pre-implantation rejection of embryos in the very early stages of pregnancy. In this paper it is proposed that the 'insurance ova' explanation for twinning in humans could be expanded to incorporate a model of rejection of anomalous embryos, be they anomalies of number or type. Variation in the efficiency of an embryo rejection mechanism, combined with variation in frequency of polyovulation, would have consequences for individual reproductive success.