An investigation into the relationship between water beetle (Coleoptera) distribution and land cover in Scotland and northeast England

Aims To determine the relationship between satellite‐derived land cover data and distribution patterns of water beetle species pools. Location A total of 687 British national grid 10 km squares in Scotland and 588 1 km grid squares in 99 10 km grid squares in northeast England. Methods Multivariate classification and constrained ordination analyses were used with water beetle species and land cover data. Results The major variation in both the Scotland and northeast England 10 km species pools was from squares with upland acid water habitats to squares with lowland fens and ponds whilst for the 1 km northeast England data it was from squares dominated by fast‐flowing streams and rivers to those with fens and ponds. The secondary variations in the 10 and 1 km analyses were the primary ones juxtaposed. Constrained ordination of the Scottish 10 km data showed upland land cover types to be most influential in determining species pool distribution whilst lowland covers were more important with both the 10 and 1 km northeast England pools. The three analyses showed that coastal cover had a relatively high influence on species pool distribution but no species pool group was dominated by coastal species. Main conclusions There were strong relationships between water beetle species pool distributions and the satellite‐derived land cover types dominating upland and lowland areas. The major variation in the northeast England species pool data differed at the two scales analysed. Results indicated that there is considerable potential for the synthesis of water beetle distribution and land cover data for use in environmental and conservation monitoring at both the regional and national scales.     

The Definition of British Water Beetle Species Pools (Coleoptera) and their Relationship to Altitude, Temperature, Precipitation and Land Cover Variables

Pooled water beetle species lists from 1826 British national grid 10-km squares were analysed using multivariate ordination and classification methods. The relationships of pool groups to the climate, altitude and land cover variables were assessed using constrained and partial ordinations. Ordination of the species pool data indicated a major trend between squares in the north-west of Scotland and those in southern England, illustrating differences in acid and basic water standing water. Secondary variation was from acid standing water to fast-flowing streams and rivers. Classification generated nine species pool groups. These showed a distinct north-west to south-east trend but there was no obvious coastal or brackish water effect on distribution. The climatic and land cover variables were all significantly related to each other, and to north-south variation in grid square location, but the constrained ordination results indicated that that the most important influence on water beetle species pool distribution was mean summer temperature. Although the amount of variation explained by the environmental variables was low, spatial variation in the environmental predictors was almost as important as the environmental variables themselves in determining species pool composition. Mean annual temperature was also strongly correlated with species pool distribution with two land cover variables slightly less important. Altitude and precipitation had the least influence. The water beetle national recording scheme database appears to be of sufficiently high quality for environmental investigations at the British scale. There is considerable potential for the synthesis of invertebrate species distribution, land cover and climate change predictions in the assessment of environmental change. The results, together with previous work on other invertebrate species, indicate that changing summer temperatures may have a considerable influence on the distribution British invertebrate species.     

Ground beetle species (Coleoptera, Carabidae) associations with land cover variables in northern England and southern Scotland

Distribution data concerning 172 ground beetle species derived from 1145 pitfall trap sites in northern England and southern Scotland were used to assess the relationship between species distribution and 12 satellite-derived land cover variables at the regional scale. A number of species were strongly associated with one cover type and negatively with others. The major variation was for preferences for covers in upland or lowland parts of the region. Other distinct preferences for some species were covers such as those at the coast whilst a number of common species showed no strong preference for any cover variable. The synthesis of ground beetle species distribution and satellite-derived cover data is discussed in relation to environmental assessment and change.     

Ecosystem classification and inventory maps as surrogates for ground beetle assemblages in boreal forest

Aims We compare performance of ecosystem classification maps and provincial forest inventory data derived from air photography in reflecting ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) biodiversity patterns that are related to the forest canopy mosaic. Our biodiversity surrogacy model based on remotely sensed tree canopy cover is validated against field-collected ground data.Methods We used a systematic sampling grid of 198 sites, covering 84 km 2 of boreal mixedwood forest in northwestern Alberta, Canada. For every site, we determined tree basal area, characterized the ground beetle assemblage and obtained corresponding provincial forest inventory and ecosystem classification information. We used variation partitioning, ordination and misclassification matrices to compare beetle biodiversity patterns explained by alternative databases and to determine model biases originating from air photo-interpretation.Important findings Ecosystem classification data performed better than canopy cover derived from forest inventory maps in describing ground beetle biodiversity patterns. The biodiversity surrogacy models based on provincial forest inventory maps and field survey generally detected similar patterns but inaccuracies in air photo-interpretation of relative canopy cover led to differences between the two models. Compared to field survey data, air photo-interpretation tended to confuse two Picea species and two Populus species present and homogenize stand mixtures. This generated divergence in models of ecological association used to predict the relationship between ground beetle assemblages and tree canopy cover. Combination of relative canopy cover from provincial inventory with other geo-referenced land variables to produce the ecosystem classification maps improved biodiversity predictive power. The association observed between uncommon surrogates and uncommon ground beetle species emphasizes the benefits of detecting these surrogates as a part of landscape management. In order to complement conservation efforts established in protected areas, accurate, high resolution, wide ranging and spatially explicit knowledge of landscapes under management is primordial in order to apply effective biodiversity conservation strategies at the stand level as required in the extensively harvested portion of the boreal forest. In development of these strategies, an in-depth understanding of vegetation is key.     

Comparing the effects of farming practices on ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) and spider (Araneae) assemblages of Scottish farmland

Multivariate techniques were used to compare and contrast the effects of land cover and farming practice on ground beetle and spider assemblages of Scottish farmland. For both ground beetles and spiders, the ordination and fuzzy clustering of sites were related to land cover rather than geographical location or year of sampling. The same four types of land cover group were identified: that is, heather moorland, semi-natural grassland, intensive grassland and arable land. The robustness of these land cover groups was tested using previously unsampled sites and it was found that 79 and 86% of sites, for ground beetle and spider assemblages respectively, were allocated to the land cover group predicted from their actual land cover. Furthermore, procrustes rotational analysis found a strong relationship between ground beetle and spider assemblages in intensively managed sites, suggesting that the assemblage structure of one group could be used to predict that of the other. The observed relationship between spider and ground beetle assemblages does not necessarily indicate that both groups were responding to agricultural practices in the same way. Indeed, the highest number of beetle species occurred in intensively managed grassland and arable sites while the highest number of spider species occurred in semi-natural grassland and heather sites. When conducting ecological assessments, one might wish to collect information on a wide range of ecologically different taxa; however, financial constraints make this unfeasible. From the results it could be concluded that spiders should be chosen in preference to ground beetles when seeking to make predictions on how farming practices influence invertebrates. However, such a conclusion would be premature since not only were spiders more numerous in the traps, but they were also more time consuming to process. In addition, the strong relationship found between the spider and ground beetle assemblages further justifies carabids as a target group when monitoring the influence of farming practices on biodiversity.     

Exploring the relationship between land cover and the distribution of water beetle species (Coleoptera) at the regional scale

The advent of remote-sensed satellite land cover data has provided the opportunity to assess the relationship between invertebrate species distributions and individual land cover types. Water beetle species occur in habitats within specific land cover types and the relationship between the distribution of water beetle species and land covers at the regional scale was investigated using records of 154 species from 1018 sites in north-east England. The land covers of tilled land and urban in the lowlands and of shrub heath and heath grassland in the upland areas proved to be most important in explaining the distribution of species. There were both positive and negative associations between some species and other covers such as woodland and the coast. However, a considerable number of species, generally those with a large number of records, showed no strong relationships with any land cover types. The integration of water beetle species recording data and remote-sensed land cover data as a basis for predicting and monitoring both species distribution and environmental change is discussed.     

A Strategic Interpretation of Beetle (Coleoptera) Assemblages, Biotopes, Habitats and Distribution, and the Conservation Implications

The identification of beetle, and other invertebrate, biotopes based on the recording of species assemblages has become a regular occurrence as a result of increased survey work, with the approach expanded into classifications of grid square pooled species lists at the national scale. A reassessment of beetle biotopes and distribution has been attempted by interpreting the classifications in terms of the major environmental factors of productivity and disturbance, identified as being important drivers in work on habitat templates and strategic triangles. For grassland ground beetle biotopes, productivity was generally related to soil quality whilst disturbance was associated with land management or cover. Productivity of exposed riverine sediment ground beetle biotopes was dependent on deposited organic matter and disturbance on the effects of water flow on site structure. With both ground beetle biotopes, the distribution of assemblages was also affected by substrate water, another abiotic driver. Productivity in aquatic beetle biotopes was a function of base-status, generally reflected by pH, whilst disturbance was mainly due to water flow and wave action. However, disturbance in ditches was also the result of site vegetation management whilst another factor affecting assemblage distribution was water permanence, with temporary water having specific assemblages. For large-scale British, grid-based, classifications productivity and disturbance were interpreted from satellite-derived land cover data. At the national scale, the other important factor influencing distribution was temperature. There is a requirement for better quantification of a number of the factors influencing biotope and assemblage definition. Species strategies employed to cope with the various environmental variables were reflected in traits in such factors as morphology and life-cycles. The effects of environmental perturbations including climate change, pollution and land use are discussed in relation to the environmental variables and to the various species strategies. Biotope classifications, using standardised and reproducible survey methods, allied to a better understanding of the underlying environmental pressures, could produce a unified approach for the conservation of beetle and other invertebrate species.     

Ground beetle species (Carabidae,Coleoptera) activity and richness in relation to crop type,fertility management and crop protection in a farm management comparison trial

Ground beetle activity and species richness was monitored using pitfall traps in a plot trial system on a farm in northern England where the effects of organic and conventional fertility and crop protection management were separated within different crop types between 2005 and 2008. As well as analyses on species activity the beetles were split into small, medium‐sized and large groups, and into groups of herbivores and specific Collembola feeders. Crop type had significant effects on the activity of the 20 most abundant species and all groups, generally with most in beans and winter barley and least in vegetables and spring barley. Most significant reactions to crop protection and fertility management were in cereals and grass/clover. Activity of small species was highest in conventionally crop‐protected cereals but not in vegetables, with more medium‐sized and herbivorous species in organic plots, but there was little influence of crop protection management on large and Collembola feeding species. However, large species were significantly more active in organically fertilised cereals and grass/clover, but not in vegetables, and there were more Collembola feeders in conventional cereals but not in grass/clover. Small species were more abundant in conventionally fertilised grass/clover but there were more in organic cereals and vegetables. These inconsistent activity reactions to management were also observed with individual species but most preferred organically managed plots. There were few significant crop protection : fertility management interactions. Species richness was also significantly affected by crop type and where management had an influence, more species were found in organically managed plots. Constrained ordination emphasised that ground beetle activity was influenced more by crops than by management. Given the diverse nature of organic crop rotations, crop type should be considered a major influence in any environmental manipulation aimed at increasing ground beetle activity for provision of ecosystem services.     

The Rove Beetles (Coleoptera, Staphylinidae) of Exposed Riverine Sediments in Scotland and Northern England: Habitat Classification and Conservation Aspects

Exposed riverine sediments (ERS) by four rivers in Scotland and northern England were sampled for beetles in 1996 and 1997. One hundred and sixty rove beetle (Staphylinidae) species lists were analysed using ordination and classification techniques in order to identify habitat groups within and between catchments and to assess which factors were affecting species assemblage distribution. There were major differences between the species assemblages of ERS by rivers of highland and lowland catchments. Within catchments, assemblage distribution was mainly influenced by the position of sites within the catchment; vegetation cover and sediment composition had less influence. The number of rove beetle habitats was not the same as those for ground and phytophagous beetle groups, indicating that conservation considerations should take into account variations in ERS habitat diversity. A considerable number of records of nationally rare and scarce rove beetle species were recorded, most on ERS by rivers and tributaries unaffected by river management or engineering.     

The influence of multi‐scale environmental variables on the distribution of terricolous lichens in a fog desert

Question: How do environmental variables in a hyper‐arid fog desert influence the distribution patterns of terricolous lichens on both macro‐ and micro‐scales? Location: Namib Desert, Namibia. Methods: Sites with varying lichen species cover were sampled for environmental variables on a macro‐scale (elevation, slope degree, aspect, proximity to river channels, and fog deposition) and on a micro‐scale (soil structure and chemistry). Macro‐scale and micro‐scale variables were analysed separately for associations with lichen species cover using constrained ordination (DCCA) and unconstrained ordination (DCA). Explanatory variables that dominated the first two axes of the constrained ordinations were tested against a lichen cover gradient. Results: Elevation and proximity to river channels were the most significant drivers of lichen species cover in the macro‐scale DCCA, but results of the DCA suggest that a considerable percentage of variation in lichen species cover is unexplained by these variables. On a micro‐scale, sediment particle size explained a majority of lichen community variations, followed by soil pH. When both macro and micro‐scale variables were tested along a lichen cover gradient, soil pH was the only variable to show a significant relationship to lichen cover. Conclusion: The findings suggest that landscape variables contribute to variations in lichen species cover, but that stronger links occur between lichen growth and small‐scale variations in soil characteristics, supporting the need for multi‐scale approaches in the management of threatened biological soil crust communities and related ecosystem functions.     

Environmental drivers of tree community turnover in western Amazonian forests

A more comprehensive understanding of the factors governing tropical tree community turnover at different spatial scales is needed to support land‐management and biodiversity conservation. We used new forest inventory data from 263 permanent plots in the Carnegie Biodiversity‐Biomass Forest Plot Network spanning the eastern Andes to the western Amazonian lowlands of Peru to examine environmental factors driving genus‐level canopy tree compositional variation at regional and landscape scales. Across the full plot network, constrained ordination analysis indicated that all environmental variables together explained 23.8% of the variation in community composition, while soil, topographic, and climatic variables each explained 15.2, 10.9, and 17.0%, respectively. A satellite‐derived metric of cloudiness was the single strongest predictor of community turnover, and constrained ordination revealed a primary gradient of environmentally‐driven community turnover spanning from cloudy, high elevation sites to warm, wet, lowland sites. For three focal landscapes within the region, local environmental variation explained 13.4–30.8% of compositional variation. Community turnover at the landscape scale was strongly driven by topo‐edaphic factors in the two lowland landscapes examined and strongly driven by potential insolation and topography in the montane landscape. At the regional scale, we found that the portion of compositional variation that was uniquely explained by spatial variation was relatively small (2.7%), and was effectively zero within the three focal landscapes. Overall, our results show strong canopy tree compositional turnover in response to environmental gradients at both regional and landscape scales, though the most important environmental drivers differed between scales and among landscapes. Our results also highlight the usefulness of key satellite‐derived environmental covariates that should be considered when conducting biodiversity analyses in tropical forests.     

Fine‐scale determinants of butterfly species richness and composition in a mountain region

Aim Global patterns of species richness are often considered to depend primarily on climate. We aimed to determine how topography and land cover affect species richness and composition at finer scales. Location Sierra de Guadarrama (central Iberian Peninsula). Methods We sampled the butterfly fauna of 180 locations (89 in 2004, 91 in 2005) at 600–2300 m elevation in a region of 10800 km². We recorded environmental variables at 100‐m resolution using GIS, and derived generalized linear models for species density (number of species per unit area) and expected richness (number of species standardized to number of individuals) based on variables of topoclimate (elevation and insolation) or land cover (vegetation type, geology and hydrology), or both (combined). We evaluated the models against independent data from the alternative study year. We also tested for differences in species composition among sites and years using constrained ordination (canonical correspondence analysis), and used variation partitioning analyses to quantify the independent and combined roles of topoclimate and land cover. Results Topoclimatic, land cover and combined models were significantly related to observed species density and expected richness. Topoclimatic and combined models outperformed models based on land cover variables, showing a humped elevational diversity gradient. Both topoclimate and land cover made significant contributions to models of species composition. Main conclusions Topoclimatic factors may dominate species richness patterns in regions with pronounced elevational gradients, as long as large areas of natural habitat remain. In contrast, both topoclimate and land cover may have important effects on species composition. Biodiversity conservation in mountainous regions therefore requires protection and management of natural habitats over a wide range of topoclimatic conditions, which may assist in facilitating range shifts and alleviating declines in species richness related to climate change.     

The role of land cover in bioclimatic models depends on spatial resolution

Aim We explored the importance of climate and land cover in bird species distribution models on multiple spatial scales. In particular, we tested whether the integration of land cover data improves the performance of pure bioclimatic models. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods The data of the bird atlas survey carried out in 1986–89 using a 10 × 10 km uniform grid system in Finland were employed in the analyses. Land cover and climatic variables were compiled using the same grid system. The dependent and explanatory variables were resampled to 20‐km, 40‐km and 80‐km resolutions. Generalized additive models (GAM) were constructed for each of the 88 land bird species studied in order to estimate the probability of occurrence as a function of (1) climate and (2) climate and land cover variables. Model accuracy was measured by a cross‐validation approach using the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. Results In general, the accuracies of the 88 bird–climate models were good at all studied resolutions. However, the inclusion of land cover increased the performance of 79 and 78 of the 88 bioclimatic models at 10‐km and 20‐km resolutions, respectively. There was no significant improvement at the 40‐km resolution. In contrast to the finer resolutions, the inclusion of land cover variables decreased the modelling accuracy at 80km resolution. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the determinants of bird species distributions are hierarchically structured: climatic variables are large‐scale determinants, followed by land cover at finer resolutions. The majority of the land bird species in Finland are rather clearly correlated with climate, and bioclimate envelope models can provide useful tools for identifying the relationships between these species and the environment at resolutions ranging from 10 km to 80 km. However, the notable contribution of land cover to the accuracy of bioclimatic models at 10–20‐km resolutions indicates that the integration of climate and land cover information can improve our understanding and model predictions of biogeographical patterns under global change.     

河西走廊天然固沙植被区地表甲虫多样性及其对沙漠化的指示作用

干旱、半干旱区沙漠化强烈影响动植物分布及多样性,地表甲虫是荒漠中主要的动物类群,它们对沙漠化引起的植被和土壤环境变化响应十分敏感。鉴于此,以河西走廊中部张掖绿洲外围的天然固沙植被区作为研究区,依据沙漠化发育程度选择流动沙丘（ASD）、丘间低地（IL）、半固定（SFSD）和固定沙丘（FSD）4种生境,调查了地表甲虫群落组成及影响甲虫分布的植被和土壤环境。研究发现,4种生境地表甲虫群落组成明显不同并存在季节变异,5月ASD与IL、SFSD和FSD生境地表甲虫群落的相异性大于8月。5月和8月SFSD生境地表甲虫活动密度均显著高于其他生境,8月FSD生境地表甲虫多样性指数显著高于其他生境。不同大小甲虫对沙漠化的响应模式不同,大中型甲虫对沙漠化的响应较小型甲虫敏感,这在5月表现尤为明显。地表甲虫与环境因子的RDA分析结果表明,12个植被和土壤环境因子解释了49.8%的地表甲虫群落变异,其中植被环境解释了甲虫群落变异的16.3%,土壤环境解释了甲虫群落变异的4.2%,植被和土壤环境相互作用解释了甲虫群落变异的29.3%。pRDA分析结果表明,草本物种丰富度、灌木盖度、土壤有机碳含量和粗砂含量是影响地表甲虫分布的主要环境因子,它们解释了43.7%的地表甲虫群落变异。Pearson相关分析表明,草本物种丰富度与地表甲虫活动密度呈显著正相关,而与地表甲虫均匀度呈显著负相关;灌木盖度与地表甲虫多样性呈显著正相关;地表甲虫物种丰富度与灌木盖度和草本物种丰富度均呈显著正相关。此外,研究还发现戈壁琵甲、克氏扁漠甲、中华砚甲和甘肃齿足象可以用于指示FSD生境,东鳖甲属昆虫可以用于指数SFSD生境,谢氏宽漠王可以用于指示IL及ASD生境。     

Beetles (Coleoptera) on brownfield sites in England: An important conservation resource?

A total of 78 brownfield (post-industrial and urban) sites were surveyed for beetles between 1991 and 2001 throughout England using pitfall traps. The distribution of ground, rove and phytophagous beetle assemblages was investigated using ordination and classification analyses. Site drainage and vegetation cover had a profound effect on the distribution of ground and rove beetle assemblages but site location was also important for phytophagous beetle assemblages. A total of 182 records of 46 nationally rare and scarce species (16 ground, 10 rove and 20 phytophagous species) were generated. A number of these species are more usually associated with other, more natural habitats such as riverine sediments, sandy heaths and chalk grassland. Brownfield sites provide habitat conditions similar to more natural habitats and they may help maintain populations of some rare and scarce species. The results indicate that brownfield sites are important habitats for beetles and there is evidence that the situation is similar for other invertebrate groups. There should be no further assumptions that post-industrial and urban sites have no conservation interest.     

Investigating the relationships between the distribution of British ground beetle species (Coleoptera, Carabidae) and temperature, precipitation and altitude

Aims We examine the relationships between the distribution of British ground beetle species and climatic and altitude variables with a view to developing models for evaluating the impact of climate change. Location Data from 1684 10‐km squares in Britain were used to model species–climate/altitude relationships. A validation data set was composed of data from 326 British 10‐km squares not used in the model data set. Methods The relationships between incidence and climate and altitude variables for 137 ground beetle species were investigated using logistic regression. The models produced were subjected to a validation exercise using the Kappa statistic with a second data set of 30 species. Distribution patterns for four species were predicted for Britain using the regression equations generated. Results As many as 136 ground beetle species showed significant relationships with one or more of the altitude and climatic variables but the amount of variation explained by the models was generally poor. Models explaining 20% or more of the variation in species incidence were generated for only 10 species. Mean summer temperature and mean annual temperature were the best predictors for eight and six of these 10 species respectively. Few models based on altitude, annual precipitation and mean winter temperature were good predictors of ground beetle species distribution. The results of the validation exercise were mixed, with models for four species showing good or moderate fits whilst the remainder were poor. Main conclusions Whilst there were many significant relationships between British ground beetle species distributions and altitude and climatic variables, these variables did not appear to be good predictors of ground beetle species distribution. The poor model performance appears to be related to the coarse nature of the response and predictor data sets and the absence of key predictors from the models.     

Macroinvertebrate species and assemblages in the headwater streams of the River Tyne,northern England in relation to land cover and other environmental variables

The macroinvertebrate species and assemblages of headwater streams of the River Tyne catchment in northern England were classified and their relationship with environmental variables based on stream structure, water acidity, distance from source and land cover investigated using constrained ordination and logistic regression. Fuzzy classification of data from 322 stream sites generated five assemblages. Stream structure, quantified as an exposure index, was found to be the most important environmental variable, with water acidity also important. Distance from source and land cover had less influence on species and assemblage distribution. A considerable amount of variation in assemblage distribution was explained using a two-variable logistic regression with stream structure (exposure index) and water acidity (pH) in a template. Site structure and water acidity appeared to be related to drift, geology and topography with little anthropogenic influence. The applicability of the habitat template concept for explaining the distribution of stream macroinvertebrates is discussed.     

National forest inventories and biodiversity monitoring in Australia

Abstract

Forests currently cover over 20% of the Australian continent and are an important resource, subject to a wide range of economic and environmental pressures. These lands support substantial numbers of forest-dependent species with national forest inventories providing important information on biodiversity. National scale information on these forests has been collected or collated since 1988 under the National Forest Inventory (NFI) programme, but substantial problems with the ‘snap shot’ approach have been recognized, particularly with respect to monitoring change and a consequent move towards a permanent and sample-based continental forest monitoring framework (CFMF) has been proposed. CFMF is proposed to consist of three Tiers: (1) satellite imagery of the continent to identify forest and change in forest cover; (2) systematic high-resolution remotely sensed data and (3) permanent ground points at 20×20 km grid interception points. The CFMF approach is in line with the international trend of national forest inventories in developed countries although the Tier 2 approach offers a useful extension. An alternative inventory approach is provided by the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) which models the mass of carbon and nitrogen in seven separate living and dead biomass pools for any point under forest or agriculture land use since 1970. The NCAS approach allows fine spatial and temporal monitoring of changes in these carbon and nitrogen biomass pools, and predictions of changes that result from policy or management decisions. This paper briefly reviews NFI, NCAS and the proposed CFMF, with particular emphasis on issues of use and potential for monitoring biodiversity in this biologically very diverse country.     

Modelling the potential effects of climate change on calcareous grasslands in Atlantic Europe

Aim This study aims to assess the sensitivity of calcareous grassland vegetation to climate change and to indicate the most probable direction of change. Location The study area was a region of Britain, Ireland, France and Spain, centred on the Bay of Biscay, which was defined using a land classification based on climatic criteria. Methods Vegetation was sampled in the field, with additional data collected on soils, climate, management and land cover. The vegetation samples were ordinated by detrended correspondence analysis in order to explore the main gradients present and as a basis for modelling changes. Environmental data were summarized by ordination techniques, with the scores generated used to predict the current vegetation score on the first two ordination axes by multiple regression. The model was then manipulated to represent a 2 °C increase in temperature and resulting shifts in the vegetation samples in terms of their species composition assessed. Results There was a good general agreement between the original vegetation ordination axis scores and those predicted by the model, the latter of which were based on environmental data alone. Following a 2 °C increase in temperature, the predicted changes in the ordination space were demonstrated to be subtle, consisting of small shifts towards vegetation associated with warmer conditions, representing distances 100 km or less on the ground. Main conclusions The models are simple but nevertheless provide a useful basis for the investigation of potential vegetation change. The shifts in the ordination space represent more minor changes than those predicted in previous studies. This suggests that the potential for major change is lower when environmental factors such as soil and management are considered in addition to climate. The potential for change is also reduced when vegetation is considered as a whole rather than on an individual species basis, due to both interspecific interactions and interactions with environmental factors acting as constraints.