Multi‐generational long‐distance migration of insects: studying the painted lady butterfly in the Western Palaearctic

Long‐range, seasonal migration is a widespread phenomenon among insects, allowing them to track and exploit abundant but ephemeral resources over vast geographical areas. However, the basic patterns of how species shift across multiple locations and seasons are unknown in most cases, even though migrant species comprise an important component of the temperate‐zone biota. The painted lady butterfly Vanessa cardui is such an example; a cosmopolitan continuously‐brooded species which migrates each year between Africa and Europe, sometimes in enormous numbers. The migration of 2009 was one of the most impressive recorded, and thousands of observations were collected through citizen science programmes and systematic entomological surveys, such as high altitude insect‐monitoring radar and ground‐based butterfly monitoring schemes. Here we use V. cardui as a model species to better understand insect migration in the Western Palaearctic, and we capitalise on the complementary data sources available for this iconic butterfly. The migratory cycle in this species involves six generations, encompassing a latitudinal shift of thousands of kilometres (up to 60 degrees of latitude). The cycle comprises an annual poleward advance of the populations in spring followed by an equatorward return movement in autumn, with returning individuals potentially flying thousands of kilometres. We show that many long‐distance migrants take advantage of favourable winds, moving downwind at high elevation (from some tens of metres from the ground to altitudes over 1000 m), pointing at strong similarities in the flight strategies used by V. cardui and other migrant Lepidoptera. Our results reveal the highly successful strategy that has evolved in these insects, and provide a useful framework for a better understanding of long‐distance seasonal migration in the temperate regions worldwide.     

Long-term temporal patterns in flight activities of a migrant diurnal butterfly

Recent studies demonstrated that the Painted Lady (Vanessa cardui), a cosmopolitan diurnal butterfly performs long-range migration between subtropical Africa and north-western Europe, covered by individuals belonging to up to six generations. Here we analyze temporal patterns of complete annual migratory activity of the Painted Lady in Hungary, located in its Central European migratory route, almost completely unstudied before. To do so, we used field occurrence data collected between 2000 and 2019 and estimated temporal patterns in migratory activity by fitting kernel density functions on the daily mean number of individuals and observation frequency. The temporal distributions of kernel density estimates were analyzed as a function of time and key climatic predictors of the study area. We found that (i) the timing of spring arrivals has been advancing; (ii) the relative intensity of the first and last migratory peaks of the Painted Lady significantly increased during the past decades; and (iii) intensity of the last migratory peak is related to the mean temperature of the previous month, inferring that the migration is shifting to earlier dates and their volume of the migration has substantially intensified, evoking mutually nonexclusive, competing hypotheses. Our study indicates the strengthening migration activities of a southerly distributed, long-distance migrant diurnal butterfly, most probably linked to the northward shift of wintering areas induced by warming trends of the southern parts of Europe. However, the complexity of the likely processes leading to changing migratory strategies calls up for further research in both breeding and wintering areas.     

Investigating a flower-insect forager network in a mountain grassland community using pollen DNA barcoding

Faced with the decline of pollinators, it is relevant to strengthen our understanding of the whole plant-pollinator web in semi-natural grasslands that serve as refuges for pollinator populations. The aim of this study was to explore the diversity of flower-foraging insects involved in pollen transfer in mountain semi-natural grasslands. Insects actively collecting pollen and/or nectar were caught in spring in six mountain semi-natural grasslands displaying a floristic richness gradient. Individual determinations of insects were made at the finest possible taxonomic scale and pollen loads were removed from the insect body. Using next-generation DNA sequencing, pollens were identified through the ribosomal DNA cistron using the ITS2 database and the ITS plant rDNA cistron sequences from Genbank. A total of 236 flower-foraging insects were collected. Diptera represented 82% of the total catches distantly followed by Hymenoptera (15%) and Apoidea (bees) (11%). Visual observations revealed that Diptera foraged on 16 of the 21 flower species visited by insects. DNA metabarcoding showed that 82% (191) of all of the collected insects were carrying pollen and 44% (104) were carrying two genera of plants or more. Our results demonstrate that Diptera are potential key-pollinators in mountain semi-natural grasslands that cannot be overlooked by the scientific community. However difficulties of taxonomic determination due to severe shortage of experts for Diptera have to be urgently overcome. Further studies on the link between pollen transfer and actual pollination in a global change context are also required. Moreover, our results support the idea that DNA metabarcoding provides accurate information about the plants-insects networks but it also pointed out sensitive issues, especially the necessity to build reliable national barcode databases.     

Discovering the migration and non‐breeding areas of sand martins and house martins breeding in the Pannonian basin (central‐eastern Europe)

The central‐eastern European populations of sand martin and house martin have declined in the last decades. The drivers for this decline cannot be identified as long as the whereabouts of these long distance migrants remain unknown outside the breeding season. Ringing recoveries of sand martins from central‐eastern Europe are widely scattered in the Mediterranean basin and in Africa, suggesting various migration routes and a broad non‐breeding range. The European populations of house martins are assumed to be longitudinally separated across their non‐breeding range and thus narrow population‐specific non‐breeding areas are expected. By using geolocators, we identified for the first time, the migration routes and non‐breeding areas of sand martins (n = 4) and house martins (n = 5) breeding in central‐eastern Europe. In autumn, the Carpathian Bend and northern parts of the Balkan Peninsula serve as important pre‐migration areas for both species. All individuals crossed the Mediterranean Sea from Greece to Libya. Sand martins spent the non‐breeding season in northern Cameroon and the Lake Chad Basin, within less than a 700 km radius, while house martins were widely scattered in three distinct regions in central, eastern, and southern Africa. Thus, for both species, the expected strength of migratory connectivity could not be confirmed. House martins, but not sand martins, migrated about twice as fast in spring compared to autumn. The spring migration started with a net average speed of > 400 km d^–1 for sand martins, and > 800 km d^–1 for house martins. However, both species used several stopover sites for 0.5–4 d and were stationary for nearly half of their spring migration. Arrival at breeding grounds was mainly related to departure from the last sub‐Saharan non‐breeding site rather than distance, route, or stopovers. We assume a strong carry‐over effect on timing in spring.     

Quantitative multi‐locus metabarcoding and waggle dance interpretation reveal honey bee spring foraging patterns in Midwest agroecosystems

We explored the pollen foraging behaviour of honey bee colonies situated in the corn and soybean dominated agroecosystems of central Ohio over a month‐long period using both pollen metabarcoding and waggle dance inference of spatial foraging patterns. For molecular pollen analysis, we developed simple and cost‐effective laboratory and bioinformatics methods. Targeting four plant barcode loci (ITS2, rbcL, trnL and trnH), we implemented metabarcoding library preparation and dual‐indexing protocols designed to minimize amplification biases and index mistagging events. We constructed comprehensive, curated reference databases for hierarchical taxonomic classification of metabarcoding data and used these databases to train the metaxa 2 DNA sequence classifier. Comparisons between morphological and molecular palynology provide strong support for the quantitative potential of multi‐locus metabarcoding. Results revealed consistent foraging habits between locations and show clear trends in the phenological progression of honey bee spring foraging in these agricultural areas. Our data suggest that three key taxa, woody Rosaceae such as pome fruits and hawthorns, Salix, and Trifolium provided the majority of pollen nutrition during the study. Spatially, these foraging patterns were associated with a significant preference for forests and tree lines relative to herbaceous land cover and nonflowering crop fields.     

Epichloae infection in a native South African grass,Festuca costata Nees

Fungal endophytes have been documented in almost all terrestrial plant groups. Although the endophyte infection syndrome in agronomic cultivars is well studied, relatively little work addresses questions of spatial ecology and fire effects on epichloae endophyte infection in native grasses, and none, to our knowledge, in sub‐Saharan Africa. We sampled seven populations of the native Festuca costata Nees along the spline of the Drakensberg range in South Africa at several spatial scales, including both recently burned and unburned stands. We tested epichloae presence and prevalence with immunoblot assays, PCR and genetic sequencing. We found epichloae endophytes were present and prevalent (38–98% infection rates depending on location). Variation in infection rates occurred primarily among locations, but also among bunches. There was little evidence that endophyte infection rates varied with fire. Novel evidence of epichloae infection of a native Festuca in South Africa opens the door to several new research questions, from the phylogenetic relationship between epichloae of sub‐Saharan Africa and other continents to the ecological advantages or disadvantages that endophytes confer upon their hosts, especially in a fire‐prone ecosystem vulnerable to global environmental change.     

Understanding the migration ecology of European red admirals Vanessa atalanta using stable hydrogen isotopes

Tracking migratory movement of small animals with variable migration patterns is difficult with standard mark–recapture methods or genetic analysis. We used stable hydrogen isotope (δD) measurements of wings from European red admirals Vanessa atalanta to study several aspects of this species’ migration. In the central part of southern Europe we found large differences in δD values between red admirals sampled in autumn and spring supporting the hypothesis that reproduction takes place in the Mediterranean region during winter. There was also an apparent influx to southern Europe in the spring of individuals with a more southerly origin, since many samples had higher δD values and similar to those expected from coastal areas of North Africa. We found a clear seasonal difference in the δD values of red admirals sampled in northern Europe. Spring migrants arriving in northern Europe generally had high δD values that indicated a southerly origin. In autumn, δD values suggested that red admirals were mostly from regions close to the sampling sites, but throughout the sampling period there were always individuals with δD values suggesting non‐local origins. The migration pattern of this species is supposedly highly variable and plastic. δD differences between individuals in the western part of Europe were generally small making migratory patterns difficult to interpret. However, butterflies from western Europe were apparently isolated from those from north‐eastern Europe, since δD values in the western region rarely corresponded to those of autumn migrants from the north‐east. Use of δD data for inferring butterfly migration in Europe is complex, but our study showed that this technique can be used to help uncover previously unknown aspects of red admiral migration.     

Molecular‐ and pollen‐based vegetation analysis in lake sediments from central Scandinavia

Plant and animal biodiversity can be studied by obtaining DNA directly from the environment. This new approach in combination with the use of generic barcoding primers (metabarcoding) has been suggested as complementary or alternative to traditional biodiversity monitoring in ancient soil sediments. However, the extent to which metabarcoding truly reflects plant composition remains unclear, as does its power to identify species with no pollen or macrofossil evidence. Here, we compared pollen‐based and metabarcoding approaches to explore the Holocene plant composition around two lakes in central Scandinavia. At one site, we also compared barcoding results with those obtained in earlier studies with species‐specific primers. The pollen analyses revealed a larger number of taxa (46), of which the majority (78%) was not identified by metabarcoding. The metabarcoding identified 14 taxa (MTUs), but allowed identification to a lower taxonomical level. The combined analyses identified 52 taxa. The barcoding primers may favour amplification of certain taxa, as they did not detect taxa previously identified with species‐specific primers. Taphonomy and selectiveness of the primers are likely the major factors influencing these results. We conclude that metabarcoding from lake sediments provides a complementary, but not an alternative, tool to pollen analysis for investigating past flora. In the absence of other fossil evidence, metabarcoding gives a local and important signal from the vegetation, but the resulting assemblages show limited capacity to detect all taxa, regardless of their abundance around the lake. We suggest that metabarcoding is followed by pollen analysis and the use of species‐specific primers to provide the most comprehensive signal from the environment.     

Construction,validation, and application of nocturnal pollen transport networks in an agro‐ecosystem: a comparison using light microscopy and DNA metabarcoding

1. Moths are globally relevant as pollinators but nocturnal pollination remains poorly understood. Plant–pollinator interaction networks are traditionally constructed using either flower‐visitor observations or pollen‐transport detection using microscopy. Recent studies have shown the potential of DNA metabarcoding for detecting and identifying pollen‐transport interactions. However, no study has directly compared the realised observations of pollen‐transport networks between DNA metabarcoding and conventional light microscopy. 2. Using matched samples of nocturnal moths, we constructed pollen‐transport networks using two methods: light microscopy and DNA metabarcoding. Focussing on the feeding mouthparts of moths, we developed and provide reproducible methods for merging DNA metabarcoding and ecological network analysis to better understand species interactions. 3. DNA metabarcoding detected pollen on more individual moths, and detected multiple pollen types on more individuals than microscopy, although the average number of pollen types per individual was unchanged. However, after aggregating individuals of each species, metabarcoding detected more interactions per moth species. Pollen‐transport network metrics differed between methods because of variation in the ability of each to detect multiple pollen types per moth and to separate morphologically similar or related pollen. We detected unexpected but plausible moth–plant interactions with metabarcoding, revealing new detail about nocturnal pollination systems. 4. The nocturnal pollination networks observed using metabarcoding and microscopy were similar yet distinct, with implications for network ecologists. Comparisons between networks constructed using metabarcoding and traditional methods should therefore be treated with caution. Nevertheless, the potential applications of metabarcoding for studying plant–pollinator interaction networks are encouraging, especially when investigating understudied pollinators such as moths.     

Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly

Understanding the impacts of climate on migratory species is complicated by the fact that these species travel through several climates that may be changing in diverse ways throughout their complete migratory cycle. Most studies are not designed to tease out the direct and indirect effects of climate at various stages along the migration route. We assess the impacts of spring and summer climate conditions on breeding monarch butterflies, a species that completes its annual migration cycle over several generations. No single, broad‐scale climate metric can explain summer breeding phenology or the substantial year‐to‐year fluctuations observed in population abundances. As such, we built a Poisson regression model to help explain annual arrival times and abundances in the Midwestern United States. We incorporated the climate conditions experienced both during a spring migration/breeding phase in Texas as well as during subsequent arrival and breeding during the main recruitment period in Ohio. Using data from a state‐wide butterfly monitoring network in Ohio, our results suggest that climate acts in conflicting ways during the spring and summer seasons. High spring precipitation in Texas is associated with the largest annual population growth in Ohio and the earliest arrival to the summer breeding ground, as are intermediate spring temperatures in Texas. On the other hand, the timing of monarch arrivals to the summer breeding grounds is not affected by climate conditions within Ohio. Once in Ohio for summer breeding, precipitation has minimal impacts on overall abundances, whereas warmer summer temperatures are generally associated with the highest expected abundances, yet this effect is mitigated by the average seasonal temperature of each location in that the warmest sites receive no benefit of above average summer temperatures. Our results highlight the complex relationship between climate and performance for a migrating species and suggest that attempts to understand how monarchs will be affected by future climate conditions will be challenging.     

Honey bee waggle dance communication increases diversity of pollen diets in intensively managed agricultural landscapes

The benefits of honey bee dance communication for colony performance in different resource environments are still not well understood. Here, we test the hypothesis that directional dance communication enables honey bee colonies to maintain a diverse pollen diet, especially in landscapes with low resource diversity. To test this hypothesis, we placed 24 Apis mellifera L. colonies with either intact or experimentally disrupted dance communication in eight agricultural landscapes that differed in the diversity of flowering plants and in the dominance of mass‐flowering crops. Pollen from incoming foragers was collected and identified via DNA metabarcoding. Disrupting dance communication affected the way the diversity of honey bee pollen diets was impacted by the dominance of mass‐flowering crops in available flower resources (p = .04). With increasing dominance of mass‐flowering crops in resource environments, foragers of colonies with intact communication foraged on an increasing proportion of available plant genera (p = .01). This was not the case for colonies with disrupted dance communication (p = .5). We conclude that the honey bee dance communication benefits pollen foraging on diverse plant resources and thereby contributes to high quality nutrition in environments with low‐resource diversity.     

Honey bee‐collected pollen in agro‐ecosystems reveals diet diversity,diet quality,and pesticide exposure

European honey bees Apis mellifera are important commercial pollinators that have suffered greater than normal overwintering losses since 2007 in North America and Europe. Contributing factors likely include a combination of parasites, pesticides, and poor nutrition. We examined diet diversity, diet nutritional quality, and pesticides in honey bee‐collected pollen from commercial colonies in the Canadian Maritime Provinces in spring and summer 2011. We sampled pollen collected by honey bees at colonies in four site types: apple orchards, blueberry fields, cranberry bogs, and fallow fields. Proportion of honey bee‐collected pollen from crop versus noncrop flowers was high in apple, very low in blueberry, and low in cranberry sites. Pollen nutritional value tended to be relatively good from apple and cranberry sites and poor from blueberry and fallow sites. Floral surveys ranked, from highest to lowest in diversity, fallow, cranberry, apple, and blueberry sites. Pesticide diversity in honey bee‐collected pollen was high from apple and blueberry sites and low from cranberry and fallow sites. Four different neonicotinoid pesticides were detected, but neither these nor any other pesticides were at or above LD₅₀ levels. Pollen hazard quotients were highest in apple and blueberry sites and lowest in fallow sites. Pollen hazard quotients were also negatively correlated with the number of flower taxa detected in surveys. Results reveal differences among site types in diet diversity, diet quality, and pesticide exposure that are informative for improving honey bee and land agro‐ecosystem management.     

Toward a standardized quantitative and qualitative insect monitoring scheme

The number of insect species and insect abundances decreased severely during the past decades over major parts of Central Europe. Previous studies documented declines of species richness, abundances, shifts in species composition, and decreasing biomass of flying insects. In this study, we present a standardized approach to quantitatively and qualitatively assess insect diversity, biomass, and the abundance of taxa, in parallel. We applied two methods: Malaise traps, and automated and active light trapping. Sampling was conducted from April to October 2018 in southern Germany, at four sites representing conventional and organic farming. Bulk samples obtained from Malaise traps were further analyzed using DNA metabarcoding. Larger moths (Macroheterocera) collected with light trapping were further classified according to their degree of endangerment. Our methods provide valuable quantitative and qualitative data. Our results indicate more biomass and higher species richness, as well as twice the number of Red List lepidopterans in organic farmland than in conventional farmland. This combination of sampling methods with subsequent DNA metabarcoding and assignments of individuals according depending on ecological characteristics and the degree of endangerment allows to evaluate the status of landscapes and represents a suitable setup for large‐scale long‐term insect monitoring across Central Europe, and elsewhere.     

Warming increases plant biomass and reduces diversity across continents,latitudes, and species migration scenarios in experimental wetland communities

Atmospheric warming may influence plant productivity and diversity and induce poleward migration of species, altering communities across latitudes. Complicating the picture is that communities from different continents deviate in evolutionary histories, which may modify responses to warming and migration. We used experimental wetland plant communities grown from seed banks as model systems to determine whether effects of warming on biomass production and species richness are consistent across continents, latitudes, and migration scenarios. We collected soil samples from each of three tidal freshwater marshes in estuaries at three latitudes (north, middle, south) on the Atlantic coasts of Europe and North America. In one experiment, we exposed soil seed bank communities from each latitude and continent to ambient and elevated (+2.8 °C) temperatures in the greenhouse. In a second experiment, soil samples were mixed either within each estuary (limited migration) or among estuaries from different latitudes in each continent (complete migration). Seed bank communities of these migration scenarios were also exposed to ambient and elevated temperatures and contrasted with a no‐migration treatment. In the first experiment, warming overall increased biomass (+16%) and decreased species richness (?14%) across latitudes in Europe and North America. Species richness and evenness of south‐latitude communities were less affected by warming than those of middle and north latitudes. In the second experiment, warming also stimulated biomass and lowered species richness. In addition, complete migration led to increased species richness (+60% in North America, + 100% in Europe), but this higher diversity did not translate into increased biomass. Species responded idiosyncratically to warming, but Lythrum salicaria and Bidens sp. increased significantly in response to warming in both continents. These results reveal for the first time consistent impacts of warming on biomass and species richness for temperate wetland plant communities across continents, latitudes, and migration scenarios.     

Cross‐continental migratory connectivity and spatiotemporal migratory patterns in the great reed warbler

Migratory connectivity describes to which degree different breeding populations have distinct (non‐overlapping) non‐breeding sites. Uncovering the level of migratory connectivity is crucial for effective conservation actions and for understanding of the evolution of local adaptations and migratory routes. Here we investigate migration patterns in a passerine bird, the great reed warbler Acrocephalus arundinaceus, over its wide Western Palearctic breeding range using geolocators from Spain, Sweden, Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Turkey. We found moderate migratory connectivity: a highly significant spatial structure in the connections between breeding and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding grounds, but at the same time a partial overlap between individual populations, particularly along the Gulf of Guinea where the majority of birds from the Spanish, Swedish and Czech populations spent their non‐breeding period. The post‐breeding migration routes were similar in direction and rather parallel for the five populations. Birds from Turkey showed the most distinctive migratory routes and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding range, with a post‐breeding migration to east Africa and, together with birds from Bulgaria, a previously unknown pre‐breeding migration over the Arabian Peninsula indicating counter‐clockwise loop migration. The distances between breeding and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding sites, as well as between first and final sub‐Saharan non‐breeding sites, differed among populations. However, the total speed of migration did not differ significantly between populations; neither during post‐breeding migration in autumn, nor pre‐breeding migration in spring. There was also no significant relationship between the total speed of migration and distance between breeding and non‐breeding sites (neither post‐ nor pre‐breeding) and, surprisingly, the total speed of migration generally did not differ significantly between post‐breeding and pre‐breeding migration. Future challenges include understanding whether non‐breeding environmental conditions may have influenced the differences in migratory patterns that we observed between populations, and to which extent non‐breeding habitat fluctuations and loss may affect population sizes of migrants.     

Pollen transfer in fragmented plant populations: insight from the pollen loads of pollinators and stigmas in a mass‐flowering species

Pollinator and/or mate scarcity affects pollen transfer, with important ecological and evolutionary consequences for plant reproduction. However, the way in which the pollen loads transported by pollinators and deposited on stigmas are affected by pollination context has been little studied. We investigated the impacts of plant mate and visiting insect availabilities on pollen transport and receipt in a mass‐flowering and facultative autogamous shrub (Rhododendron ferrugineum). First, we recorded insect visits to R. ferrugineum in plant patches of diverse densities and sizes. Second, we analyzed the pollen loads transported by R. ferrugineum pollinators and deposited on stigmas of emasculated and intact flowers, in the same patches. Overall, pollinators (bumblebees) transported much larger pollen loads than the ones found on stigmas, and the pollen deposited on stigmas included a high proportion of conspecific pollen. However, comparing pollen loads of emasculated and intact flowers indicated that pollinators contributed only half the conspecific pollen present on the stigma. At low plant density, we found the highest visitation rate and the lowest proportion of conspecific pollen transported and deposited by pollinators. By contrast, at higher plant density and lower visitation rate, pollinators deposited larger proportion of conspecific pollen, although still far from sufficient to ensure that all the ovules were fertilized. Finally, self‐pollen completely buffered the detrimental effects on pollination of patch fragmentation and pollinator failure. Our results indicate that pollen loads from pollinators and emasculated flowers should be quantified for an accurate understanding of the relative impacts of pollinator and mate limitation on pollen transfer in facultative autogamous species.     

Soil‐dwelling insect pests of tree crops in Sub‐Saharan Africa,problems and management strategies—A review

This review aims to draw the attention of researchers, ecologists and farmers to the threats of soil‐dwelling insect pests on important tree crops in sub‐Saharan Africa, with a special focus on termites. It synthesizes the information on the effects of various factors affecting soil pest occurrence and damage, suggesting that the resultant undesirable effects of soil pests in this region are largely as a result of indiscriminate tree cutting, slash‐and‐burn agriculture and indiscriminate use of pesticides. Major insect orders, their host ranges and the nature of damage on selected tree crops are described. This study further critiques existing soil pest management practices, showing that majority of soil pest management practices are ineffective. Thus, management strategies like “attract and kill” approach based on entomopathogenic fungi need to be studied, developed and emphasized for the management of soil insect pests in sub‐Saharan Africa. A conclusion section attempts to offer suggestions for ways in which future work on soil pests in sub‐Saharan Africa could proceed.     

Climatic connectivity between Africa and Europe may serve as a basis for phenotypic adjustment of migration schedules of trans-Saharan migratory birds

Most European migratory birds wintering in sub‐Saharan Africa have anticipated arrival to the breeding areas over the past decades. This phenological change may be ultimately caused by warming of the Northern Hemisphere via evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity in migration behavior. First arrival dates are negatively predicted by temperatures upon arrival to the breeding grounds. This seems puzzling, because migrants should be unable to predict weather conditions at long range. Migrants can enjoy diverse fitness benefits from early arriving. However, if weather conditions at destination cannot be predicted, early arrival can also entail severe costs. If meteorological conditions in Europe during breeding covary with those in sub‐Saharan Africa during late winter, long‐distance migrants may have a clue to predict meteorological conditions in their breeding areas while they are still in Africa and adjust their migration schedule consequently, an idea that has never been tested. We analyzed the correlation between March–April temperature anomalies (T_an) in Europe and February T_an in the Sahel and sub‐Sahel, where long‐distance migrants winter or stop‐over. T_an in Africa negatively predicted T_an in Europe, the association being particularly strong (unsigned effect size, z_r>0.35) for eastern Sahel and northern and eastern Europe, where the risks of early arrival may be larger. However, the strength of the correlations between T_an in the two continents has declined during the last 25 years; thus, possibly, partly compromising adaptive mechanisms of adjustment of migration. The existence of such climatic connectivity leads to several predictions, including that positive T_an in Africa should delay arrival. Consistent with this prediction, we found that first arrival dates of seven long‐distance migratory species positively covaried with February T_an in Africa. Thus, while wintering, migrants might be able to predict meteorological conditions at the beginning of the breeding season, and phenotypically adjust migration schedules to optimally tune arrival date.     

Potential impacts of climatic change on the breeding and non-breeding ranges and migration distance of European Sylvia warblers

Aim  To explore the potential impacts of climatic change on species with different migratory strategies using Sylvia warblers breeding in Europe as a ‘model’ species group. Location  Europe and Africa. Methods  Climate response surfaces and generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to model relationships between species recorded breeding and non‐breeding ranges and recent climate. Species potential future breeding and non‐breeding ranges were simulated for three scenarios of late 21st‐century climate. The simulated potential future and present ranges were compared in terms of their relative extent and overlap, as well as their location. The impact of any shifts in potential range location on migration distance were quantified. Results  Potential breeding ranges consistently showed a shift northwards, whereas potential non‐breeding ranges showed no consistent directional shift, even when trans‐Saharan migrants were considered separately from resident/short‐distance or partial migrants. Future potential range extent relative to simulated recent range extent varied considerably among species, although on average range extent increased. Overlap between future and recent simulated range was generally low, averaging < 36% for both breeding and non‐breeding ranges. Overlap was consistently less for range‐restricted than for widespread species. Migration distance increased generally, by about twice as much in the case of trans‐Saharan migrant species than for short‐distance migrants. In many cases potential future non‐breeding areas were simulated in regions far from the species present non‐breeding area, suggesting that new migration strategies and routes may need to be developed in response to climatic change. Main conclusions  Migratory species can be expected to suffer greater negative impacts from climatic change than species that are resident or undertake only short‐distance or partial migrations. Trans‐Saharan migrants face the greatest potential increases in migration distances, whereas range‐restricted species are expected to experience major population reductions because of the limited, or in some cases lack of, overlap between their present and potential future ranges.     

Individual consistency of long‐distance migration in a songbird: significant repeatability of autumn route,stopovers and wintering sites but not in timing of migration

Through new tracking techniques, data on timing and routes of migration in long‐distance migrant birds are accumulating. However, studies of the consistency of migration of the same individuals between years are still rare in small‐sized passerine birds. This type of information is important to understand decisions and migration abilities at the individual level, but also for life history theory, for understanding carry over effects between different annual cycle stages and for conservation. We analysed individual repeatability of migration between years in great reed warblers Acrocephalus arundinaceus; a medium‐sized European songbird migrating to sub‐Saharan Africa. In seven males, with geolocator data from 2–4 yr per bird, we found low to moderate (non significant) repeatability in timing of migration parameters (R ≤ 0.41), but high (and significant) repeatability for most spatial parameters, i.e. autumn route (R = 0.64) and stopover sites (R = 0.59–0.87) in Europe, and wintering sites (R = 0.77–0.99) in sub‐Saharan Africa. This pattern of high spatial but low temporal within‐individual repeatability of migration between years contrasts other tracking studies of migrating birds that generally have found consistency in timing but flexibility in routes. High spatial consistency of migration in the great reed warbler may be due to it being a specialist in wetlands, an unevenly distributed habitat, favouring a strategy of recurrence at previously visited sites. Low temporal repeatability may be caused by large between‐year variation in carry‐over effects from the breeding season, high flexibility in decision rules during migration or high sensitivity to environmental factors (weather, wind) during migration.