Spatiotemporally explicit demographic modelling supports a joint effect of historical barriers to dispersal and contemporary landscape composition on structuring genomic variation in a red‐listed grasshopper

Inferring the processes underlying spatial patterns of genomic variation is fundamental to understand how organisms interact with landscape heterogeneity and to identify the factors determining species distributional shifts. Here, we use genomic data (restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing) to test biologically informed models representing historical and contemporary demographic scenarios of population connectivity for the Iberian cross‐backed grasshopper Dociostaurus hispanicus, a species with a narrow distribution that currently forms highly fragmented populations. All models incorporated biological aspects of the focal taxon that could hypothetically impact its geographical patterns of genomic variation, including (a) spatial configuration of impassable barriers to dispersal defined by topographic landscapes not occupied by the species; (b) distributional shifts resulting from the interaction between the species bioclimatic envelope and Pleistocene glacial cycles; and (c) contemporary distribution of suitable habitats after extensive land clearing for agriculture. Spatiotemporally explicit simulations under different scenarios considering these aspects and statistical evaluation of competing models within an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework supported spatial configuration of topographic barriers to dispersal and human‐driven habitat fragmentation as the main factors explaining the geographical distribution of genomic variation in the species, with no apparent impact of hypothetical distributional shifts linked to Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Collectively, this study supports that both historical (i.e., topographic barriers) and contemporary (i.e., anthropogenic habitat fragmentation) aspects of landscape composition have shaped major axes of genomic variation in the studied species and emphasizes the potential of model‐based approaches to gain insights into the temporal scale at which different processes impact the demography of natural populations.     

Tackling intraspecific genetic structure in distribution models better reflects species geographical range

Genetic diversity provides insight into heterogeneous demographic and adaptive history across organisms’ distribution ranges. For this reason, decomposing single species into genetic units may represent a powerful tool to better understand biogeographical patterns as well as improve predictions of the effects of GCC (global climate change) on biodiversity loss. Using 279 georeferenced Iberian accessions, we used classes of three intraspecific genetic units of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana obtained from the genetic analyses of nuclear SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), chloroplast SNPs, and the vernalization requirement for flowering. We used SDM (species distribution models), including climate, vegetation, and soil data, at the whole‐species and genetic‐unit levels. We compared model outputs for present environmental conditions and with a particularly severe GCC scenario. SDM accuracy was high for genetic units with smaller distribution ranges. Kernel density plots identified the environmental variables underpinning potential distribution ranges of genetic units. Combinations of environmental variables accounted for potential distribution ranges of genetic units, which shrank dramatically with GCC at almost all levels. Only two genetic clusters increased their potential distribution ranges with GCC. The application of SDM to intraspecific genetic units provides a detailed picture on the biogeographical patterns of distinct genetic groups based on different genetic criteria. Our approach also allowed us to pinpoint the genetic changes, in terms of genetic background and physiological requirements for flowering, that Iberian A. thaliana may experience with a GCC scenario applying SDM to intraspecific genetic units.     

Accounting for multi‐scale spatial autocorrelation improves performance of invasive species distribution modelling (iSDM)

Aim Analyses of species distributions are complicated by various origins of spatial autocorrelation (SAC) in biogeographical data. SAC may be particularly important for invasive species distribution models (iSDMs) because biological invasions are strongly influenced by dispersal and colonization processes that typically create highly structured distribution patterns. We examined the efficacy of using a multi‐scale framework to account for different origins of SAC, and compared non‐spatial models with models that accounted for SAC at multiple levels. Location We modelled the spatial distribution of an invasive forest pathogen, Phytophthora ramorum, in western USA. Methods We applied one conventional statistical method (generalized linear model, GLM) and one nonparametric technique (maximum entropy, Maxent) to a large dataset on P. ramorum occurrence (n = 3787) to develop four types of model that included environmental variables and that either ignored spatial context or incorporated it at a broad scale using trend surface analysis, a local scale using autocovariates, or multiple scales using spatial eigenvector mapping. We evaluated model accuracies and amounts of explained spatial structure, and examined the changes in predictive power of the environmental and spatial variables. Results Accounting for different scales of SAC significantly enhanced the predictive capability of iSDMs. Dramatic improvements were observed when fine‐scale SAC was included, suggesting that local range‐confining processes are important in P. ramorum spread. The importance of environmental variables was relatively consistent across all models, but the explanatory power decreased in spatial models for factors with strong spatial structure. While accounting for SAC reduced the amount of residual autocorrelation for GLM but not for Maxent, it still improved the performance of both approaches, supporting our hypothesis that dispersal and colonization processes are important factors to consider in distribution models of biological invasions. Main conclusions Spatial autocorrelation has become a paradigm in biogeography and ecological modelling. In addition to avoiding the violation of statistical assumptions, accounting for spatial patterns at multiple scales can enhance our understanding of dynamic processes that explain ecological mechanisms of invasion and improve the predictive performance of static iSDMs.     

Montane refugia predict population genetic structure in the Large‐blotched Ensatina salamander

Understanding the biotic consequences of Pleistocene range shifts and fragmentation remains a fundamental goal in historical biogeography and evolutionary biology. Here, we combine species distribution models (SDM) from the present and two late Quaternary time periods with multilocus genetic data (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites) to evaluate the effect of climate‐induced habitat shifts on population genetic structure in the Large‐blotched Ensatina (Ensatina eschscholtzii klauberi), a plethodontid salamander endemic to middle and high‐elevation conifer forest in the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern California and northern Baja California. A composite SDM representing the range through time predicts two disjunct refugia, one in southern California encompassing the core of the species range and the other in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir of northern Baja California at the southern limit of the species range. Based on our spatial model, we would expect a pattern of high connectivity among populations within the northern refugium and, conversely, a pattern of isolation due to long‐term persistence of the Sierra San Pedro Mártir population. Our genetic results are consistent with these predictions based on the hypothetical refugia in that (i) historical measures of population connectivity among stable areas are correlated with gene flow estimates; and (ii) there is strong geographical structure between separate refugia. These results provide evidence for the role of recent climatic change in shaping patterns of population persistence and connectivity within the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, an evolutionary hotspot.     

Inferring climatic controls of rice stem borers’ spatial distributions using maximum entropy modelling

Accurate assessment of pest potential distributions is needed to identify their establishment risks that play a key role in pest management in agricultural ecosystems. We used a correlative niche modelling method (Maxent) to predict and map the spatial distributions of two important rice stem borers, Chilo suppressalis and Sesamia cretica, in paddy fields of Iran. In total, 195 presence occurrence records (101 records for C. suppressalis and 94 records for S. cretica) were compiled. A set of environmental and topographic variables, with the highest effects on the species distributions and the lowest correlations among themselves, were used. The results showed that mainly the northern parts of Iran were the most suitable areas for C. suppressalis, and north, north‐east and south‐west of Iran as the most suitable areas for S. cretica. Both models performed well, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.983 and 0.786 for C. suppressalis and S. cretica, respectively. The Maxent models showed higher accuracy for predicting the distribution of the specialist pest with the small range sizes compared to the generalist species. Assessing the importance of environmental variables, which were derived from the jackknife test, showed the precipitation as the variable with the highest contribution (66%) in explaining the spatial distribution of C. suppressalis compared to the other variables. The distribution of S. cretica was influenced by a set of variables derived from both the precipitation and temperature. The Maxent predictions were useful to map the geographical distributions of the risk for both rice stem borers that is needed to develop effective management strategies.     

Using maximum entropy to predict the potential distribution of an invasive freshwater snail

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New view of population genetics of zooplankton: RAD‐seq analysis reveals population structure of the North Atlantic planktonic copepod Centropages typicus

Detection of population genetic structure of zooplankton at medium‐to‐small spatial scales in the absence of physical barriers has remained challenging and controversial. The large population sizes and high rates of gene flow characteristic of zooplankton have made resolution of geographical differentiation very difficult, especially when using few genetic markers and assuming equilibrium conditions. Next‐generation sequencing now allows simultaneous sampling of hundreds to thousands of genetic markers; new analytical approaches allow studies under nonequilibrium conditions and directional migration. Samples of the North Atlantic Ocean planktonic copepod, Centropages typicus, were analysed using restriction site‐associated DNA (RAD) sequencing on a PROTON platform. Although prior studies revealed no genetic differentiation of populations across the geographical range of the species, analysis of RAD tags showed significant structure across the North Atlantic Ocean. We also compared the likelihood for models of connectivity among NW Atlantic populations under various directional flow scenarios that replicate oceanographic conditions of the sampled domain. High‐density marker sampling with RAD sequencing markedly outperformed other technical and analytical approaches in detection of population genetic structure and characterization of connectivity of this high geneflow zooplankton species.     

Molecular diversity and landscape genomics of the crop wild relative Triticum urartu across the Fertile Crescent

Modern plant breeding can benefit from the allelic variation that exists in natural populations of crop wild relatives that evolved under natural selection in varying pedoclimatic conditions. In this study, next‐generation sequencing was used to generate 1.3 million genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on ex situ collections of Triticum urartu L., the wild donor of the A^u subgenome of modern wheat. A set of 75 511 high‐quality SNPs were retained to describe 298 T. urartu accessions collected throughout the Fertile Crescent. Triticum urartu showed a complex pattern of genetic diversity, with two main genetic groups distributed sequentially from west to east. The incorporation of geographical information on sampling points showed that genetic diversity was correlated to the geographical distance (R² = 0.19) separating samples from Jordan and Lebanon, from Syria and southern Turkey, and from eastern Turkey, Iran and Iraq. The wild emmer genome was used to derive the physical positions of SNPs on the seven chromosomes of the A^u subgenome, allowing us to describe a relatively slow decay of linkage disequilibrium in the collection. Outlier loci were described on the basis of the geographic distribution of the T. urartu accessions, identifying a hotspot of directional selection on chromosome 4A. Bioclimatic variation was derived from grid data and related to allelic variation using a genome‐wide association approach, identifying several marker–environment associations (MEAs). Fifty‐seven MEAs were associated with altitude and temperature measures while 358 were associated with rainfall measures. The most significant MEAs and outlier loci were used to identify genomic loci with adaptive potential (some already reported in wheat), including dormancy and frost resistance loci. We advocate the application of genomics and landscape genomics on ex situ collections of crop wild relatives to efficiently identify promising alleles and genetic materials for incorporation into modern crop breeding.     

Red herrings revisited: spatial autocorrelation and parameter estimation in geographical ecology

There have been numerous claims in the ecological literature that spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models results in shifts in the partial coefficients, which bias the interpretation of factors influencing geographical patterns. We evaluate the validity of these claims using gridded species richness data for the birds of North America, South America, Europe, Africa, the ex‐USSR, and Australia. We used richness in 110×110 km cells and environmental predictor variables to generate OLS and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) multiple regression models for each region. Spatial correlograms of the residuals from each OLS model were then used to identify the minimum distance between cells necessary to avoid short‐distance residual spatial autocorrelation in each data set. This distance was used to subsample cells to generate spatially independent data. The partial OLS coefficients estimated with the full dataset were then compared to the distributions of coefficients created with the subsamples. We found that OLS coefficients generated from data containing residual spatial autocorrelation were statistically indistinguishable from coefficients generated from the same data sets in which short‐distance spatial autocorrelation was not present in all 22 coefficients tested. Consistent with the statistical literature on this subject, we conclude that coefficients estimated from OLS regression are not seriously affected by the presence of spatial autocorrelation in gridded geographical data. Further, shifts in coefficients that occurred when using SAR tended to be correlated with levels of uncertainty in the OLS coefficients. Thus, shifts in the relative importance of the predictors between OLS and SAR models are expected when small‐scale patterns for these predictors create weaker and more unstable broad‐scale coefficients. Our results indicate both that OLS regression is unbiased and that differences between spatial and nonspatial regression models should be interpreted with an explicit awareness of spatial scale.     

Climate change,genetic markers and species distribution modelling

Ecologists and biogeographers are currently expending great effort forecasting shifts in species geographical ranges that may result from climate change. However, these efforts are problematic because they have mostly relied on presence‐only data that ignore within‐species genetic diversity. Technological advances in high‐throughput sequencing have now made it cost‐effective to survey the genetic structure of populations sampled throughout the range of a species. These data can be used to delineate two or more genetic clusters within the species range, and to identify admixtures of individuals within genetic clusters that reflect different patterns of ancestry. Species distribution models (SDMs) applied to the presence and absence of genetic clusters should provide more realistic forecasts of geographical range shifts that take account of genetic variability. High‐throughput sequencing and spatially explicit models may be used to further refine these projections.     

Isolation by instability: Historical climate change shapes population structure and genomic divergence of treefrogs in the Neotropical Cerrado savanna

Although the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on the diversification of the tropical biota was once dismissed, increasing evidence suggests that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations greatly affected the distribution and population divergence of tropical organisms. Landscape genomic analyses coupled with paleoclimatic distribution models provide a powerful way to understand the consequences of past climate changes on the present‐day tropical biota. Using genome‐wide SNP data and mitochondrial DNA, combined with projections of the species distribution across the late Quaternary until the present, we evaluate the effect of paleoclimatic shifts on the genetic structure and population differentiation of Hypsiboas lundii, a treefrog endemic to the South American Cerrado savanna. Our results show a recent and strong genetic divergence in H. lundii across the Cerrado landscape, yielding four genetic clusters that do not seem congruent with any current physical barrier to gene flow. Isolation by distance (IBD) explains some of the population differentiation, but we also find strong support for past climate changes promoting range shifts and structuring populations even in the presence of IBD. Post‐Pleistocene population persistence in four main areas of historical stable climate in the Cerrado seems to have played a major role establishing the present genetic structure of this treefrog. This pattern is consistent with a model of reduced gene flow in areas with high climatic instability promoting isolation of populations, defined here as “isolation by instability,” highlighting the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations structuring populations in tropical savannas.     

Environmental gradients shape the genetic structure of two medicinal Salvia species in Jordan

• Environmental gradients, and particularly climatic variables, exert a strong influence on plant distribution and, potentially, population genetic diversity and differentiation. Differences in water availability can cause among‐population variation in ecological processes and can thus interrupt populations’ connectivity and isolate them environmentally. The present study examines the effect of environmental heterogeneity on plant populations due to environmental isolation unrelated to geographic distance.
• Using AFLP markers, we analyzed genetic diversity and differentiation among 12 Salvia spinosa populations and 13 Salvia syriaca populations from three phytogeographical regions (Mediterranean, Irano‐Turanian and Saharo‐Arabian) representing the extent of the species’ geographic range in Jordan. Differences in geographic location and climate were considered in the analyses.
• For both species, flowering phenology varied among populations and regions. Irano‐Turanian and Saharo‐Arabian populations had higher genetic diversity than Mediterranean populations, and genetic diversity increased significantly with increasing temperature. Genetic diversity in Salvia syriaca was affected by population size, while genetic diversity responded to drought in S. spinosa. For both species, high levels of genetic differentiation were found as well as two well‐supported phytogeographical groups of populations, with Mediterranean populations clustering in one group and the Irano‐Turanian and Saharo‐Arabian populations in another. Genetic distance was significantly correlated to environmental distance, but not to geographic distance.
• Our data indicate that populations from moist vs. arid environments are environmentally isolated, where environmental gradients affect their flowering phenology, limit gene flow and shape their genetic structure. We conclude that environmental heterogeneity may act as driver for the observed variation in genetic diversity.

     

Relationships between survival and habitat suitability of semi‐aquatic mammals

Spatial distribution and habitat selection are integral to the study of animal ecology. Habitat selection may optimize the fitness of individuals. Hutchinsonian niche theory posits the fundamental niche of species would support the persistence or growth of populations. Although niche‐based species distribution models (SDMs) and habitat suitability models (HSMs) such as maximum entropy (Maxent) have demonstrated fair to excellent predictive power, few studies have linked the prediction of HSMs to demographic rates. We aimed to test the prediction of Hutchinsonian niche theory that habitat suitability (i.e., likelihood of occurrence) would be positively related to survival of American beaver (Castor canadensis), a North American semi‐aquatic, herbivorous, habitat generalist. We also tested the prediction of ideal free distribution that animal fitness, or its surrogate, is independent of habitat suitability at the equilibrium. We estimated beaver monthly survival probability using the Barker model and radio telemetry data collected in northern Alabama, United States from January 2011 to April 2012. A habitat suitability map was generated with Maxent for the entire study site using landscape variables derived from the 2011 National Land Cover Database (30‐m resolution). We found an inverse relationship between habitat suitability index and beaver survival, contradicting the predictions of niche theory and ideal free distribution. Furthermore, four landscape variables selected by American beaver did not predict survival. The beaver population on our study site has been established for 20 or more years and, subsequently, may be approaching or have reached the carrying capacity. Maxent‐predicted increases in habitat use and subsequent intraspecific competition may have reduced beaver survival. Habitat suitability‐fitness relationships may be complex and, in part, contingent upon local animal abundance. Future studies of mechanistic SDMs incorporating local abundance and demographic rates are needed.     

Revisiting the connectivity puzzle of the common coral Pocillopora damicornis

Understanding levels of connectivity among scleractinian coral populations over a range of temporal and spatial scales is vital for managing tropical coral reef ecosystems. Here, we use multilocus microsatellite genotypes to assess the spatial genetic structure of two molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs, types α and β) of the widespread coral Pocillopora damicornis on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and infer the extent of connectivity on spatial scales spanning from local habitat types to latitudinal sectors of the GBR. We found high genetic similarities over large spatial scales spanning > 1000 km from the northern to the southern GBR, but also strong genetic differentiation at local scales in both MOTUs. The presence of a considerable number of first‐generation migrants within the populations sampled (12% and 27% for types α and β, respectively) suggests that genetic differentiation over small spatial scales is probably a consequence of stochastic recruitment from different genetic pools into recently opened up spaces on the reef, for example, following major disturbance events. We explain high genetic similarity among populations over hundreds of kilometres by long competency periods of brooded zooxanthellate larvae and multiple larval release events each year, combined with strong longshore currents typical along the GBR. The lack of genetic evidence for predominantly clonal reproduction in adult populations of P. damicornis, which broods predominantly asexually produced larvae, further undermines the paradigm that brooded larvae settle close to parent colonies shortly after the release.     

Evolutionary history of a widespread tree species Acer mono in East Asia

East Asia has the most diverse temperate flora in the world primarily due to the lack of Pleistocene glaciation and the geographic heterogeneity. Although increasing phylogeography studies in this region provided more proofs in this issue, discrepancies and uncertainty still exist, especially in northern temperate deciduous broad‐leaved and coniferous mixed forest region (II). And a widespread plant species could reduce the complexity to infer the relationship between diversity and physiographical pattern. Hence, we studied the evolution history of a widespread temperate tree, Acer mono, populations in region II and the influence of physiographic patterns on intraspecific genetic diversity. Analyses of chloroplast sequences and nuclear microsatellites indicated high levels of genetic diversity. The diversity distribution was spatially heterogeneous and a latitudinal cline existed in both markers. The spatial distribution pattern between genetic diversity within A. mono and the diversity at species level was generally consistent. Western subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forest subregion (IVb) had a unique ancient chloroplast clade (CP3) and a nuclear gene pool (GP5) with dominance indicating the critical role of this area in species diversification. Genetic data and ecological niche model results both suggested that populations in region II disappeared during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and recovered from south of Changbai Mt. and the Korean Peninsula. Two distribution centers were likely during the LGM, one in the north edge of warm temperate deciduous broad‐leaved forest region (III) and another in the south edge of region III. This was reflected by the genetic pattern with two spatially independent genetic groups. This study highlights the key role of region III in sustaining genetic diversity in the northern range and connecting diversity between southern and northern range. We elucidated the diversity relationship between vegetation regions which could facilitate the understanding of biodiversity origin and maintenance in East Asia.     

Molecular biogeography and host relations of a parasitoid fly

Successful geographic range expansion by parasites and parasitoids may also require host range expansion. Thus, the evolutionary advantages of host specialization may trade off against the ability to exploit new host species encountered in new geographic regions. Here, we use molecular techniques and confirmed host records to examine biogeography, population divergence, and host flexibility of the parasitoid fly, Ormia ochracea (Bigot). Gravid females of this fly find their cricket hosts acoustically by eavesdropping on male cricket calling songs; these songs vary greatly among the known host species of crickets. Using both nuclear and mitochondrial genetic markers, we (a) describe the geographical distribution and subdivision of genetic variation in O. ochracea from across the continental United States, the Mexican states of Sonora and Oaxaca, and populations introduced to Hawaii; (b) demonstrate that the distribution of genetic variation among fly populations is consistent with a single widespread species with regional host specialization, rather than locally differentiated cryptic species; (c) identify the more‐probable source populations for the flies introduced to the Hawaiian islands; (d) examine genetic variation and substructure within Hawaii; (e) show that among‐population geographic, genetic, and host song distances are all correlated; and (f) discuss specialization and lability in host‐finding behavior in light of the diversity of cricket songs serving as host cues in different geographically separate populations.     

The population genomic basis of geographic differentiation in North American common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.)

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is an invasive, wind‐pollinated plant nearly ubiquitous in disturbed sites in its eastern North American native range and present across growing portions of Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. Phenotypic divergence between European and native‐range populations has been described as rapid evolution. However, a recent study demonstrated major human‐mediated shifts in ragweed genetic structure before introduction to Europe and suggested that native‐range genetic structure and local adaptation might fully explain accelerated growth and other invasive characteristics of introduced populations. Genomic differentiation that potentially influenced this structure has not yet been investigated, and it remains unclear whether substantial admixture during historical disturbance of the native range contributed to the development of invasiveness in introduced European ragweed populations. To investigate fine‐scale population genetic structure across the species' native range, we characterized diallelic SNP loci via a reduced‐representation genotyping‐by‐sequencing (GBS) approach. We corroborate phylogeographic domains previously discovered using traditional sequencing methods, while demonstrating increased power to resolve weak genetic structure in this highly admixed plant species. By identifying exome polymorphisms underlying genetic differentiation, we suggest that geographic differentiation of this important invasive species has occurred more often within pathways that regulate growth and response to defense and stress, which may be associated with survival in North America's diverse climatic regions.     

Delimiting shades of gray: phylogeography of the Northern Fulmar,Fulmarus glacialis

The Northern Fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) is a common tube‐nosed seabird with a disjunct Holarctic range. Taxonomic divisions within the Northern Fulmar have historically been muddled by geographical variation notably including highly polymorphic plumage. Recent molecular analyses (i.e., DNA barcoding) have suggested that genetic divergence between Atlantic and Pacific populations could be on par with those typically observed between species. We employ a multigene phylogenetic analysis to better explore the level of genetic divergence between these populations and to test an old hypothesis on the origin of the modern distribution of color morphs across their range. Additionally, we test whether mutations in the melanocortin‐1 receptor gene (MC1R) are associated with dark plumage in the Northern Fulmar. We confirmed that mitochondrial lineages in the Atlantic and Pacific populations are highly divergent, but nuclear markers revealed incomplete lineage sorting. Genetic divergence between these populations is consistent with that observed between many species of Procellariiformes and we recommend elevating these two forms to separate species. We also find that MC1R variation is not associated with color morph but rather is better explained by geographical divergence.     

Field heritability of a plant adaptation to fire in heterogeneous landscapes

The strong association observed between fire regimes and variation in plant adaptations to fire suggests a rapid response to fire as an agent of selection. It also suggests that fire‐related traits are heritable, a precondition for evolutionary change. One example is serotiny, the accumulation of seeds in unopened fruits or cones until the next fire, an important strategy for plant population persistence in fire‐prone ecosystems. Here, we evaluate the potential of this trait to respond to natural selection in its natural setting. For this, we use a SNP marker approach to estimate genetic variance and heritability of serotiny directly in the field for two Mediterranean pine species. Study populations were large and heterogeneous in climatic conditions and fire regime. We first estimated the realized relatedness among trees from genotypes, and then partitioned the phenotypic variance in serotiny using Bayesian animal models that incorporated environmental predictors. As expected, field heritability was smaller (around 0.10 for both species) than previous estimates under common garden conditions (0.20). An estimate on a subset of stands with more homogeneous environmental conditions was not different from that in the complete set of stands, suggesting that our models correctly captured the environmental variation at the spatial scale of the study. Our results highlight the importance of measuring quantitative genetic parameters in natural populations, where environmental heterogeneity is a critical aspect. The heritability of serotiny, although not high, combined with high phenotypic variance within populations, confirms the potential of this fire‐related trait for evolutionary change in the wild.     

Climate‐driven range shifts explain the distribution of extant gene pools and predict future loss of unique lineages in a marine brown alga

The climate‐driven dynamics of species ranges is a critical research question in evolutionary ecology. We ask whether present intraspecific diversity is determined by the imprint of past climate. This is an ongoing debate requiring interdisciplinary examination of population genetic pools and persistence patterns across global ranges. Previously, contrasting inferences and predictions have resulted from distinct genomic coverage and/or geographical information. We aim to describe and explain the causes of geographical contrasts in genetic diversity and their consequences for the future baseline of the global genetic pool, by comparing present geographical distribution of genetic diversity and differentiation with predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) during past extremes, present time and future climate scenarios for a brown alga, Fucus vesiculosus. SDM showed that both atmospheric and oceanic variables shape the global distribution of intertidal species, revealing regions of persistence, extinction and expansion during glacial and postglacial periods. These explained the distribution and structure of present genetic diversity, consisting of differentiated genetic pools with maximal diversity in areas of long‐term persistence. Most of the present species range comprises postglacial expansion zones and, in contrast to highly dispersive marine organisms, expansions involved only local fronts, leaving distinct genetic pools at rear edges. Besides unravelling a complex phylogeographical history and showing congruence between genetic diversity and persistent distribution zones, supporting the hypothesis of niche conservatism, range shifts and loss of unique genetic diversity at the rear edge were predicted for future climate scenarios, impoverishing the global gene pool.