Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark–recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one‐in‐seventy‐year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long‐held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change.     

Water temperature and fish growth: otoliths predict growth patterns of a marine fish in a changing climate

Ecological modeling shows that even small, gradual changes in body size in a fish population can have large effects on natural mortality, biomass, and catch. However, efforts to model the impact of climate change on fish growth have been hampered by a lack of long‐term (multidecadal) data needed to understand the effects of temperature on growth rates in natural environments. We used a combination of dendrochronology techniques and additive mixed‐effects modeling to examine the sensitivity of growth in a long‐lived (up to 70 years), endemic marine fish, the western blue groper (Achoerodus gouldii), to changes in water temperature. A multi‐decadal biochronology (1952–2003) of growth was constructed from the otoliths of 56 fish collected off the southwestern coast of Western Australia, and we tested for correlations between the mean index chronology and a range of potential environmental drivers. The chronology was significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the region, but common variance among individuals was low. This suggests that this species has been relatively insensitive to past variations in climate. Growth increment and age data were also used in an additive mixed model to predict otolith growth and body size later this century. Although growth was relatively insensitive to changes in temperature, the model results suggested that a fish aged 20 in 2099 would have an otolith about 10% larger and a body size about 5% larger than a fish aged 20 in 1977. Our study shows that species or populations regarded as relatively insensitive to climate change could still undergo significant changes in growth rate and body size that are likely to have important effects on the productivity and yield of fisheries.     

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.     

Temperature,invaders and patchy habitat interact to limit the distribution of a vulnerable freshwater fish

Interacting global‐change drivers such as invasive species and climate warming are likely to have major and potentially unexpected influences on aquatic ecosystems. In river networks, modified water temperature combined with patchy physical conditions will likely cause shifts in the amount and distribution of suitable habitat, with influential invasive species further altering habitat availability. We examined how distributions of a thermally sensitive galaxiid fish native to the alpine rivers of New Zealand, Galaxias paucispondylus, were influenced by these drivers using spatially extensive presence–absence electrofishing surveys of 46 sites spread over four subcatchments. A unimodal response to water temperature and an interaction with substratum size meant G. paucispondylus were limited to streams with average summer water temperatures between 10.6 and 13.8 °C and were absent when average substratum sizes were <36 mm, regardless of temperature. In addition, non‐native trout >150 mm long excluded G. paucispondylus, but were only found in streams with average summer water temperatures <10.6 °C. These influences of trout likely strengthened the unimodal temperature response of G. paucispondylus and led to a very small G. paucispondylus realized niche. When predicted temperature increases were applied to catchment models, G. paucispondylus distributions were patchy and variable across subcatchments. Moreover, local physical characteristics of river networks were particularly important because of the non‐linear and interactive influences of temperature and substratum size on the outcome of species interactions. Therefore, substratum sizes, water temperature and a non‐native predator combined to influence the distribution of this thermally sensitive fish, illustrating how the effects of climate warming will likely be strongly context‐dependent and interactive.     

Multiscale topoedaphic heterogeneity increases resilience and resistance of a dominant grassland species to extreme drought and climate change

It is argued that the inclusion of spatially heterogeneous environments in biodiversity reserves will be an effective means of encouraging ecosystem resilience and plant community conservation under climate change. However, the resilience and resistance of plant populations to global change, the specific life‐history traits involved and the spatial scale at which environmentally driven demographic variation is expressed remains largely unknown for most plant groups. Here we address these questions by reporting an empirical investigation into the impacts of an unprecedented 3‐year drought on the demography, population growth rates (λ) and biogeographical distribution of core populations of the perennial grassland species Austrostipa aristiglumis in semiarid Australia. We use life‐history analysis and periodic matrix population models to specifically test the hypothesis that patch‐ and habitat‐scale variation in vital life‐history parameters result in spatial differences in the resilience and resistance of A. aristiglumis populations to extreme drought. We show that the development of critical soil water deficits during drought resulted in collapse of adult A. aristiglumis populations (λ?1), rapid interhabitat phytosociological change and overall contraction towards mesic refugia where populations were both more resistant and resilient to perturbation. Population models, combined with climatic niche analysis, suggest that, even in core areas, a significant reduction in size and habitat range of A. aristiglumis populations is likely under climate change expected this century. Remarkably, however, we show that even minor topographic variation (0.2–3 m) can generate significant variation in demographic parameters that confer population‐level resilience and resistance to drought. Our findings support the hypothesis that extreme climatic events have the capacity to induce rapid, landscape‐level shifts in core plant populations, but that the protection of topographically heterogeneous environments, even at small spatial scales, may play a key role in conserving biodiversity under climate change in the coming century.     

Fire resilience of a rare,freshwater crustacean in a fire‐prone ecosystem and the implications for fire management

Understanding species’ responses to fire regimes, particularly rare or threatened species, is important for land managers tasked with managing for biodiversity. Hickman's Allanaspides (Allanaspides hickmani, Anaspidesidae) is a rare, primitive, shrimp‐like crustacean, with high conservation value. It is restricted to a single catchment in the island state of Tasmania, Australia, where it occurs within moorland pools typically containing crayfish (Ombrastacoides spp.) burrows. Although its moorland habitat has a long history of firing, adverse fire regimes are a potential threat to the species. A large part of its range is subject to planned burning to help manage the detrimental effects of high‐intensity wildfires. The resilience of A. hickmani to low–moderate‐intensity fires was investigated over 13 years using a replicated before‐after‐control‐impact design. The fires resulted in an initial reduction in vegetation cover and surface water and an increase in water temperature. There was no effect of fire on A. hickmani captures 4 months after small‐scale, low‐intensity autumn burns. However, 5 months later, following an unintended larger‐scale, medium‐intensity spring burn, there was an 80–90% reduction in A. hickmani captures and their numbers did not recover until 6–9 years post‐fire. It is not known whether the reduced catch was due to a reduction in the number of A. hickmani or their movement from pools into crayfish burrows. These findings together with evidence of a varied fire history, including high‐intensity wildfires, within their range suggests that A. hickmani and its habitat are resilient to a range of fire frequencies and intensities provided that the fire regime does not degrade or lead to a complete loss of peat. Climate change predictions for warmer and drier summers in western Tasmania will increase the risk of peat loss. Planned burning is likely to be important for the protection of A. hickmani habitat from predicted adverse fire regimes.     

Silver fir and Douglas fir are more tolerant to extreme droughts than Norway spruce in south‐western Germany

Improving our understanding of the potential of forest adaptation is an urgent task in the light of predicted climate change. Long‐term alternatives for susceptible yet economically important tree species such as Norway spruce (Picea abies) are required, if the frequency and intensity of summer droughts will continue to increase. Although Silver fir (Abies alba) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) have both been described as drought‐tolerant species, our understanding of their growth responses to drought extremes is still limited. Here, we use a dendroecological approach to assess the resistance, resilience, and recovery of these important central Europe to conifer species the exceptional droughts in 1976 and 2003. A total of 270 trees per species were sampled in 18 managed mixed‐species stands along an altitudinal gradient (400–1200 m a.s.l.) at the western slopes of the southern and central Black Forest in southwest Germany. While radial growth in all species responded similarly to the 1976 drought, Norway spruce was least resistant and resilient to the 2003 summer drought. Silver fir showed the overall highest resistance to drought, similarly to Douglas fir, which exhibited the widest growth rings. Silver fir trees from lower elevations were more drought prone than trees at higher elevations. Douglas fir and Norway spruce, however, revealed lower drought resilience at higher altitudes. Although the 1976 and 2003 drought extremes were quite different, Douglas fir maintained consistently the highest radial growth. Although our study did not examine population‐level responses, it clearly indicates that Silver fir and Douglas fir are generally more resistant and resilient to previous drought extremes and are therefore suitable alternatives to Norway spruce; Silver fir more so at higher altitudes. Cultivating these species instead of Norway spruce will contribute to maintaining a high level of productivity across many Central European mountain forests under future climate change.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.     

Climate change impacts on the conservation outlook of populations on the poleward periphery of species ranges: A case study of Canadian black‐tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus)

Given climate change, species' climatically suitable habitats are increasingly expected to shift poleward. Some imperilled populations towards the poleward edge of their species' range might therefore conceivably benefit from climate change. Interactions between climate and population dynamics may be complex, however, with climate exerting effects both indirectly via influence over food availability and more directly, via effects on physiology and its implications for survival and reproduction. A thorough understanding of these interactions is critical for effective conservation management. We therefore examine the relationship between climate, survival and reproduction in Canadian black‐tailed prairie dogs, a threatened keystone species in an imperilled ecosystem at the northern edge of the species' range. Our analyses considered 8 years of annual mark–recapture data (2007–2014) in relation to growing degree days, precipitation, drought status and winter severity, as well as year, sex, age and body mass. Survival was strongly influenced by the interaction of drought and body mass class, and winter temperature severity. Female reproductive status was associated with the interaction of growing degree days and growing season precipitation, with spring precipitation and with winter temperature severity. Results related to body mass suggested that climatic variables exerted their effects via regulation of food availability with potential linked effects of food quality, immunological and behavioural implications, and predation risk. Predictions of future increases in drought conditions in North America's grassland ecosystems have raised concerns for the outlook of Canadian black‐tailed prairie dogs. Insights gained from the analyses, however, point to mitigating species management options targeted at decoupling the mechanisms by which climate exerts its negative influence. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding the interaction between climate and population dynamics in peripheral populations whose viability might ultimately determine their species' ability to track climatically suitable space.     

Northward displacement of optimal climate conditions for ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum L. across a latitudinal gradient in Alaska

Plants are often genetically specialized as ecotypes attuned to local environmental conditions. When conditions change, the optimal environment may be physically displaced from the local population, unless dispersal or in situ evolution keep pace, resulting in a phenomenon called adaptational lag. Using a 30‐year‐old reciprocal transplant study across a 475 km latitudinal gradient, we tested the adaptational lag hypothesis by measuring both short‐term (tiller population growth rates) and long‐term (17‐year survival) fitness components of Eriophorum vaginatum ecotypes in Alaska, where climate change may have already displaced the optimum. Analyzing the transplant study as a climate transfer experiment, we showed that the climate optimum for plant performance was displaced ca. 140 km north of home sites, although plants were not generally declining in size at home sites. Adaptational lag is expected to be widespread globally for long‐lived, ecotypically specialized plants, with disruptive consequences for communities and ecosystems.     

Causal or spurious relationship? Climate and the distribution of Phelsuma geckos on Grand Comoro Island

The volcanic island of Grand Comoro, Malagasy biogeographic region, is inhabited by three species of Phelsuma day geckos; two island‐endemic taxa (Phelsuma comorensis and Phelsuma v‐nigra comoraegrandensis) and the introduced Phelsuma dubia. Phelsuma comorensis is restricted to elevations of greater than 150 m above sea level on the northern of the island's two volcanoes and is the only Phelsuma above 300 m. The other species are widespread at low elevations but also reach levels above 900 m at the southern volcano. To investigate these divergent distribution patterns, we used environmental niche models based on climate and habitat data and tested whether predicted climate change may influence species distributions. Analyses of niche overlap did not show significant differences between present‐day and predicted future potential distributions of any Phelsuma species studied, which could be seen as an indicator of resilience towards climate change. Climate models reflected the restricted distribution of P. comorensis with precipitation of the wettest month detected as most important variable, whereas habitat models predicted an island‐wide distribution. While climate appears to determine the distribution of P. comorensis, we propose isolation by migration barriers as an alternative and discuss the detection of causal versus spurious relationships in ecological niche models.     

Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid‐zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) population in the southwestern United States from 1998 to 2013. Over 16 years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1 days over 9 years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16 years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8 years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern United States has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species' decline and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest.     

Population viability analysis of Walia ibex (Capra walie) at Simien Mountains National Park (SMNP), Ethiopia

Population viability analysis (PVA) has been applied to the management of many threatened populations. The objective of this study was, therefore, to estimate the PVA of Walia ibex at the Simen Mountains National Park, in the north‐central highlands of Ethiopia, with respect to population growth parameters, the probability of the population reaching a lower extinction threshold and the mean time to extinction. Direct census of the population was carried out in 2009. Secondary census data were also collected from park authorities and the literature reviews. The result revealed that the estimates of the infinitesimal mean, μ (0.04117) was greater than the infinitesimal variance, σ² (0.0219). The probability that the population reaches the extinction threshold was very low (0.15%). The mean time required for the counts to decline from the existing population size to one individual animal was 160 years. But threatened species are adversely affected by changes in landscape. These changes can be brought by short‐ and long‐term human and climate change impacts, respectively. Therefore, with the absence of environmental and demographic stochasticity and, with the application of appropriate reproductions and habitat management, the population of Walia ibex will be viable and reaches its mean time of extinctions after 160 years.     

Evaluating monitoring methods to guide adaptive management of a threatened amphibian (Litoria aurea)

Prompt detection of declines in abundance or distribution of populations is critical when managing threatened species that have high population turnover. Population monitoring programs provide the tools necessary to identify and detect decreases in abundance that will threaten the persistence of key populations and should occur in an adaptive management framework which designs monitoring to maximize detection and minimize effort. We monitored a population of Litoria aurea at Sydney Olympic Park over 5 years using mark–recapture, capture encounter, noncapture encounter, auditory, tadpole trapping, and dip‐net surveys. The methods differed in the cost, time, and ability to detect changes in the population. Only capture encounter surveys were able to simultaneously detect a decline in the occupancy, relative abundance, and recruitment of frogs during the surveys. The relative abundance of L. aurea during encounter surveys correlated with the population size obtained from mark–recapture surveys, and the methods were therefore useful for detecting a change in the population. Tadpole trapping and auditory surveys did not predict overall abundance and were therefore not useful in detecting declines. Monitoring regimes should determine optimal survey times to identify periods where populations have the highest detectability. Once this has been achieved, capture encounter surveys provide a cost‐effective method of effectively monitoring trends in occupancy, changes in relative abundance, and detecting recruitment in populations.     

Littoral habitat loss caused by multiyear drought and the response of an endemic fish species in a deep desert lake

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Experimental migration upward in elevation is associated with strong selection on life history traits

One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up‐slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high‐elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower‐elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up‐slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower‐elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up‐slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower‐elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change.     

Migratory behaviour shapes spatial genetic structure of cyprinid fishes within the Lake Malawi catchment

• Genetic differences among freshwater fish populations are dependent on life‐history characteristics of the species, including the range of adult dispersal and the extent of homing to natal breeding grounds. However, the effects of variation in such characteristics on population genetic connectivity are rarely studied comparatively among closely related species.
• We studied population genetic structure within three congeneric cyprinid species from the Lake Malawi catchment that differ substantially in life‐history traits and conservation status, using a combination of microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA markers. Mpasa (Opsaridium microlepis) is a large (70 cm total length) migratory species that spawns in rivers, but as an adult is exclusively known from the main lake body. Sanjika (Opsaridium microcephalum), is a medium size (30 cm total length) species that exists in lake breeding, river‐lake migratory and apparently landlocked populations. Dwarf sanjika (Opsaridium tweddleorum) is a small non‐migratory species (15 cm total length) that persists in small tributaries surrounding the main lake and adjoining rivers.
• The results revealed striking differences among the three species in spatial genetic structuring. The river‐lake migratory mpasa showed only weak yet significant population genetic structure within the main Lake Malawi catchment, suggesting that there is no strong natal homing. The habitat‐generalist sanjika showed only weak spatial genetic differentiation at microsatellite loci within the Lake Malawi catchment, but moderate structure in mitochondrial DNA, potentially reflecting male‐biased dispersal. The river‐restricted dwarf sanjika showed strong genetic structure in both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA, suggesting strictly limited dispersal at both adult and juvenile stages.
• We conclude that contrasting migration life histories have resulted in dramatically different patterns of population genetic structure among these congeneric species. The observed patterns demonstrate how divergent life‐history evolution may strongly influence broader patterns of population genetic connectivity in freshwater fish, with consequences for management and conservation. Specifically the results suggesting gene flow among Lake Malawi populations of mpasa, an IUCN red‐listed ‘Endangered’ species endemic to the lake catchment, imply that conservation initiatives operating at both local and catchment scales are needed to reverse local population decline.

     

Future vulnerability mapping based on response to extreme climate events: Dieback thresholds in an endemic California oak

Aim

This study presents a bioclimate modelling approach, using responses to extreme climate events, rather than historical distributional associations, to project future species vulnerability and refugia. We aim to illustrate the compounding effects of groundwater loss and climate on species vulnerability.

Location

California, USA.

Methods

As a case study, we used the 2012–2015 California drought and resulting extensive dieback of blue oak (Quercus douglasii). We used aerial dieback surveys, downscaled climate data and subsurface water change data to develop boosted regression tree models identifying key thresholds associated with dieback throughout the blue oak distribution. We (1) combined observed dieback–climatic threshold relationships with climate futures to anticipate future areas of vulnerability and (2) used satellite‐derived measurements of subsurface water loss in drought/dieback modelling to capture the mediating effect of groundwater on species response to climatic drought.

Results

A model including climate, climate anomalies and subsurface water change explained 46% of the variability in dieback. Precipitation in 2015 and subsurface water change accounted for 62.6% of the modelled probability of dieback. We found an interaction between precipitation and subsurface water in which dieback probability increased with low precipitation and subsurface water loss. The relationship between precipitation and dieback was nonlinear, with 99% of dieback occurring in areas that received <363 mm precipitation. Based on a MIROC_rcp85 future climate scenario, relative to historical conditions, 13% of the blue oak distribution is predicted to experience more frequent years below this precipitation threshold by mid‐century and 81% by end of century.

Main conclusions

As ongoing climate change and extreme events impact ecological processes, the identification of thresholds associated with observed dieback may be combined with climate futures to help identify vulnerable populations and refugia and prioritize climate change‐related conservation efforts.     

Changes in structure of over‐ and midstory tree species in a Mediterranean‐type forest after an extreme drought‐associated heatwave

Worldwide, extreme climatic events such as drought and heatwaves are associated with forest mortality. However, the precise drivers of tree mortality at individual and stand levels vary considerably, with substantial gaps in knowledge across studies in biomes and continents. In 2010–2011, a drought‐associated heatwave occurred in south‐western Australia and drove sudden and rapid forest canopy collapse. Working in the Northern Jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) Forest, we quantified the response of key overstory (E. marginata, Corymbia calophylla) and midstory (Banksia grandis, Allocasuarina fraseriana) tree species to the extreme climate event. Using transects spanning a gradient of drought impacts (minimal (50–100 m), transitional (100–150 m) and severe (30–60 m)), tree species mortality in relation to stand characteristics (stand basal area and stem density) and edaphic factors (soil depth) was determined. We show differential mortality between the two overstory species and the two midstory species corresponding to the drought‐associated heatwave. The dominant overstory species, E. marginata, had significantly higher mortality (~19%) than C. calophylla (~7%) in the severe zone. The midstory species, B. grandis, demonstrated substantially higher mortality (~59%) than A. fraseriana (~4%) in the transitional zone. Banksia grandis exhibited a substantial shift in structure in response to the drought‐associated heatwave in relation to tree size, basal area and soil depth. This study illustrates the role of climate extremes in driving ecosystem change and highlights the critical need to identify and quantify the resulting impact to help predict future forest die‐off events and to underpin forest management and conservation.