Vegetation analogs and differences in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres: A global comparison

Biogeographic comparisons help to identify similarities, differences, larger contexts, and useful hypotheses. Between the (extra-tropical) Northern and Southern Hemispheres taxonomy differs almost completely, but other useful bases for vegetation comparison include phenophysiognomy, form composition and vegetation architecture, subphysiognomic morphology, environmental limits of plant types, taxonomic richness, and some aspects of function. All major biome types occur in both hemispheres except the boreal forests and analogous montane coniferous forests of the Northern Hemisphere. Some vegetation and plant types appear clearly unique, including Eucalyptus, campo cerrado, and flat-cushions such as Azorella, all of these in the Southern Hemisphere. Different but parallel adaptations to different but analogous conditions include the tall submediterranean forests, temperate rainforests, and continental versus maritime temperate deserts. Climatic limits appear similar in the two hemispheres, but mechanisms for some differences remain unresolved. Per unit land area, the Southern Hemisphere has higher annual net primary productivity than the Northern. Dissimilar analogs continue to suggest hypotheses and research questions.     

Simulating the onset of spring vegetation growth across the Northern Hemisphere

Changes in the spring onset of vegetation growth in response to climate change can profoundly impact climate–biosphere interactions. Thus, robust simulation of spring onset is essential to accurately predict ecosystem responses and feedback to ongoing climate change. To date, the ability of vegetation phenology models to reproduce spatiotemporal patterns of spring onset at larger scales has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we took advantage of phenology observations via remote sensing to calibrate and evaluated six models, including both one‐phase (considering only forcing temperatures) and two‐phase (involving forcing, chilling, and photoperiod) models across the Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2012. Overall, we found that the model that integrated the photoperiod effect performed best at capturing spatiotemporal patterns of spring phenology in boreal and temperate forests. By contrast, all of the models performed poorly in simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. These results suggest that the photoperiod plays a role in controlling the onset of growth in most Northern Hemisphere forests, whereas other environmental factors (e.g., precipitation) should be considered when simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. We also found that the one‐phase model performed as well as the two‐phase models in boreal forests, which implies that the chilling requirement is probably fulfilled across most of the boreal zone. Conversely, two‐phase models performed better in temperate forests than the one‐phase model, suggesting that photoperiod and chilling play important roles in these temperate forests. Our results highlight the significance of including chilling and photoperiod effects in models of the spring onset of forest growth at large scales, and indicate that the consideration of additional drivers may be required for grasslands.     

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

Convergence of bark investment according to fire and climate structures ecosystem vulnerability to future change

Fire regimes in savannas and forests are changing over much of the world. Anticipating the impact of these changes requires understanding how plants are adapted to fire. In this study, we test whether fire imposes a broad selective force on a key fire‐tolerance trait, bark thickness, across 572 tree species distributed worldwide. We show that investment in thick bark is a pervasive adaptation in frequently burned areas across savannas and forests in both temperate and tropical regions where surface fires occur. Geographic variability in bark thickness is largely explained by annual burned area and precipitation seasonality. Combining environmental and species distribution data allowed us to assess vulnerability to future climate and fire conditions: tropical rainforests are especially vulnerable, whereas seasonal forests and savannas are more robust. The strong link between fire and bark thickness provides an avenue for assessing the vulnerability of tree communities to fire and demands inclusion in global models.     

DIVERSIFICATION AND PERSISTENCE AT THE ARID–MONSOONAL INTERFACE: AUSTRALIA‐WIDE BIOGEOGRAPHY OF THE BYNOE'S GECKO (HETERONOTIA BINOEI; GEKKONIDAE)

Late Neogene aridification in the Southern Hemisphere caused contractions of mesic biota to refugia, similar to the patterns established by glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere, but these episodes also opened up new adaptive zones that spurred range expansion and diversification in arid‐adapted lineages. To understand these dynamics, we present a multilocus (nine nuclear introns, one mitochondrial gene) phylogeographic analysis of the Bynoe's gecko (Heteronotia binoei), a widely distributed complex spanning the tropical monsoon, coastal woodland, and arid zone biomes in Australia. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses, estimates of divergence times, and demographic inferences revealed episodes of diversification in the Pliocene, especially in the tropical monsoon biome, and range expansions in the Pleistocene. Ancestral habitat reconstructions strongly support recent and independent invasions into the arid zone. Our study demonstrates the varied responses to aridification in Australia, including localized persistence of lineages in the tropical monsoonal biome, and repeated invasion of and expansion through newly available arid‐zone habitats. These patterns are consistent with those found in other arid environments in the Southern Hemisphere, including the South African succulent karoo and the Chilean lowlands, and highlight the diverse modes of diversification and persistence of Earth's biota during the glacial cycles of the Pliocene and Pleistocene.     

Tropical rainforest canopies and climate change

Abstract There is less certainty about the impact of climate change on tropical rainforests than on temperate forests because of the comparative lack of background data and because few large scale experiments have been, and are being, carried out in tropical rainforests. Many of the factors critical to the future of tropical rainforests concern canopies, the key processes that take place there, and the roles and interactions of canopy biodiversity. In particular there are almost no data on how forest canopies and processes are changing with increased carbon dioxide levels. The implications of elevated carbon dioxide, climatic stress and related changes in water‐use efficiency, nutrient availability and other such changes are discussed particularly with references to Australia's tropical rainforests.     

Spatial and topographic trends in forest expansion and biomass change,from regional to local scales

Natural forest growth and expansion are important carbon sequestration processes globally. Climate change is likely to increase forest growth in some regions via CO₂ fertilization, increased temperatures, and altered precipitation; however, altered disturbance regimes and climate stress (e.g. drought) will act to reduce carbon stocks in forests as well. Observations of asynchrony in forest change is useful in determining current trends in forest carbon stocks, both in terms of forest density (e.g. Mg ha^?1) and spatially (extent and location). Monitoring change in natural (unmanaged) areas is particularly useful, as while afforestation and recovery from historic land use are currently large carbon sinks, the long‐term viability of those sinks depends on climate change and disturbance dynamics at their particular location. We utilize a large, unmanaged biome (>135 000 km²) which spans a broad latitudinal gradient to explore how variation in location affects forest density and spatial patterning: the forests of the North American temperate rainforests in Alaska, which store >2.8 Pg C in biomass and soil, equivalent to >8% of the C in contiguous US forests. We demonstrate that the regional biome is shifting; gains exceed losses and are located in different spatio‐topographic contexts. Forest gains are concentrated on northerly aspects, lower elevations, and higher latitudes, especially in sheltered areas, whereas loss is skewed toward southerly aspects and lower latitudes. Repeat plot‐scale biomass data (n = 759) indicate that within‐forest biomass gains outpace losses (live trees >12.7 cm diameter, 986 Gg yr^?1) on gentler slopes and in higher latitudes. This work demonstrates that while temperate rainforest dynamics occur at fine spatial scales (<1000 m²), the net result of thousands of individual events is regionally patterned change. Correlations between the disturbance/establishment imbalance and biomass accumulation suggest the potential for relatively rapid biome shifts and biomass changes.     

Climate change and modelled biome representation in Canada's national park system: implications for system planning and park mandates

Aim The study examined the potential for change in biome representation within Canada's national park system under multiple climate change scenarios and subsequent potential vulnerabilities in Parks Canada policy and planning frameworks. Location The study was conducted for Canada's 39 national parks. Methods The vegetation change scenarios were based on modelling results from the BIOME3 and MAPSS equilibrium process‐based global vegetation models (GVM), run with multiple doubled‐CO₂ climate change scenarios. The six vegetation distribution scenarios were calculated at 0.5° latitude–longitude resolution and the boundaries of 39 national parks superimposed in a geographic information system (GIS). Park management plans and other planning documents were also reviewed as part of the analysis. Results The proportional distribution of biomes in Canada's national park system was very similar (within 3% of area for each biome) using BIOME3 and MAPSS under the current climate. Regardless of the GVM and climate change scenario used, the modelling results suggest the potential for substantial change in the biome representation in Canada's national park system. In five of six vegetation scenarios, a novel biome type appeared in more than half of the national parks and greater than 50% of all vegetation grid boxes changed biome type. The proportional representation of tundra and taiga/tundra in the national park system declined in each of the vegetation scenarios, while more southerly biomes (temperate forests and savanna/woodland) increased (in some scenarios doubling to quadrupling). Results for boreal forest varied among the climate change scenarios. A range of potential vulnerabilities in existing policy and planning frameworks were identified, including the national park system plan, individual park objectives, and fire and exotic species management plans. Conclusions Climate change represents an unprecedented challenge to Parks Canada and its ability to achieve its conservation mandate as presently legislated. Research is needed not only on ecosystem responses to climate change, but also on the capacity of conservation systems and agencies to adapt to climate change.     

Increased Drought Impacts on Temperate Rainforests from Southern South America: Results of a Process-Based,Dynamic Forest Model

Increased droughts due to regional shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes are likely to affect forests in temperate regions in the coming decades. To assess their consequences for forest dynamics, we need predictive tools that couple hydrologic processes, soil moisture dynamics and plant productivity. Here, we developed and tested a dynamic forest model that predicts the hydrologic balance of North Patagonian rainforests on Chiloé Island, in temperate South America (42°S). The model incorporates the dynamic linkages between changing rainfall regimes, soil moisture and individual tree growth. Declining rainfall, as predicted for the study area, should mean up to 50% less summer rain by year 2100. We analysed forest responses to increased drought using the model proposed focusing on changes in evapotranspiration, soil moisture and forest structure (above-ground biomass and basal area). We compared the responses of a young stand (YS, ca. 60 years-old) and an old-growth forest (OG, >500 years-old) in the same area. Based on detailed field measurements of water fluxes, the model provides a reliable account of the hydrologic balance of these evergreen, broad-leaved rainforests. We found higher evapotranspiration in OG than YS under current climate. Increasing drought predicted for this century can reduce evapotranspiration by 15% in the OG compared to current values. Drier climate will alter forest structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value in OG. The model presented here can be used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on forest hydrology and other threats of global change on future forests such as fragmentation, introduction of exotic tree species, and changes in fire regimes. Our study expands the applicability of forest dynamics models in remote and hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests.     

Impact of fire and the recovery of molluscs in south‐east Australian salt marsh

Fire has long been recognised as a natural force in structuring Northern Hemisphere salt marshes, yet little is known about the impact of fire on molluscs and native vegetation dynamics of Southern Hemisphere coastal salt marshes. Following a fire at Ash Island, Hunter River New South Wales, Australia in the summer 2012, we assessed patterns of recovery through time of gastropod populations and resident salt marsh vegetation including biomass for three keystone native plant species, Native Rush (Juncus kraussii Hochst.), a chenopod (Sarcocornia quinqueflora Bunge ex Ungen‐Sternberg A.J. Scott), Salt Couch (Sporobolus virginicus, L. Kunth) and the invasive Spiny Rush (Juncus acutus). In temperate east‐coast Australian salt marshes, Spiny Rush is displacing native salt marsh vegetation. After twelve months, the biomass of Native Rush recovered to similar pre‐burn levels. While fire affected the abundance, richness and composition of the gastropod assemblage differences were also largely driven by spatial variability. Gastropod assemblages associated with two of the higher elevation native species (Native Rush and Salt Couch) were impacted the most by fire. Greater abundance (between 1 and 5 orders of magnitude difference in abundance) and richness of gastropods were found in unburnt compared with burnt Native Rush and Salt Couch vegetation, while more gastropods were found in Spiny Rush in one site. Species prevalent in burnt vegetation included larger species of gastropods Ophicardelus ornatus (Ferussac, 1821) and Phallomedusa solida (Martens, 1878) with an unexpected spike in number of the smaller gastropod Tatea huonensis (Tenison‐Woods, 1876) in the spiny rush at one site only. In salt marsh habitats, many gastropods have planktonic larval dispersal stages which are dependent on the tidal height for transport and the structural complexity provided by vegetation at settlement. Since fire appears to negatively affect salt marsh gastropod populations within structurally complex Native Rush and Salt Couch, due consideration of the importance of these refuges for gastropods is recommended when fire or other disturbances occur in ecologically endangered salt marsh in the Southern Hemisphere. Managers need to consider spatial heterogeneity of molluscs and their recovery in the event of fire in Southern Hemisphere salt marshes.     

Global patterns of insect herbivory in gap and understorey environments,and their implications for woody plant carbon storage

Insect herbivory is thought to favour carbon allocation to storage in juveniles of shade‐tolerant trees. This argument assumes that insect herbivory in the understorey is sufficiently intense as to select for storage; however, understoreys might be less attractive to insect herbivores than canopy gaps, because of low resource availability and – at temperate latitudes – low temperatures. Although empirical studies show that shade‐tolerant species in tropical forests do allocate more photosynthate to storage than their light‐demanding associates, the same pattern has not been consistently observed in temperate forests. Does this reflect a latitudinal trend in the relative activity of insect herbivory in gap versus understorey environments? To date there has been no global review of the effect of light environment on insect herbivory in forests. We postulated that if temperature is the primary factor limiting insect herbivory, the effect of gaps on rates of insect herbivory should be more evident in temperate than in tropical forests; due to low growing season temperatures in the oceanic temperate forests of the Southern Hemisphere, the effect of gaps on insect herbivory rates should in turn be stronger there than in the more continental temperate climates of the Northern Hemisphere. We examined global patterns of insect herbivory in gaps versus understories through meta‐analysis of 87 conspecific comparisons of leaf damage in contrasting light environments. Overall, insect herbivory in gaps was significantly higher than in the understorey; insect herbivory was 50% higher in gaps than in understoreys of tropical forests but did not differ significantly between gaps and understories in temperate forests of either hemisphere. Results are consistent with the idea that low resource availability – and not temperature – limits insect herbivore activity in forest understoreys, especially in the tropics, and suggest the selective influence of insect herbivory on late‐successional tree species may have been over‐estimated.     

Lichenological evidence for the recognition of inland rain forests in western North America

Aim The coastal temperate rain forests of north‐western North America are internationally renowned as the archetypal expression of the temperate rain forest biome. Less well documented is the existence of somewhat similar forests 500–700 km inland on the windward slopes of the Columbia and Rocky Mountains. Here we attempt to show that these inland ‘wetbelt’ forests warrant rain forest status. Location North‐western North America. Methods We use tree‐dwelling macrolichens to assess the degree of environmental congruence between the coastal temperate rain forests and their inland counterparts. Results We report three key findings: (1) 40% of oceanic, epiphytic macrolichens found in Pacific coastal rain forests occur also in inland regions; (2) epiphytic species richness decreases with decreasing latitude, such that roughly 70% of disjunct oceanic species are restricted to regions north of 51° N; and (3) the southward decline in lichen diversity is correlated with a parallel decrease in summer precipitation, but not with mean annual precipitation. Main conclusions These observations are consistent with the recognition of an inland rain forest formation between 50 and 54° N. Inland rain forests represent a small, biologically significant ecosystem whose continued fragmentation and conversion to tree plantations warrant close scrutiny.     

Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate–boreal ecotone of eastern North America

Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonize boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non‐climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada, to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional‐scale forest transitions. We used a continuous‐time multi‐state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short‐term transient dynamics and long‐term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long‐term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad‐scale biome shifts.     

High and dry: post‐fire tree seedling establishment in subalpine forests decreases with post‐fire drought and large stand‐replacing burn patches

Aim Climate warming and increased wildfire activity are hypothesized to catalyse biogeographical shifts, reducing the resilience of fire‐prone forests world‐wide. Two key mechanisms underpinning hypotheses are: (1) reduced seed availability in large stand‐replacing burn patches, and (2) reduced seedling establishment/survival after post‐fire drought. We tested for regional evidence consistent with these mechanisms in an extensive fire‐prone forest biome by assessing post‐fire tree seedling establishment, a key indicator of forest resilience. Location Subalpine forests, US Rocky Mountains. Methods We analysed post‐fire tree seedling establishment from 184 field plots where stand‐replacing forest fires were followed by varying post‐fire climate conditions. Generalized linear mixed models tested how establishment rates varied with post‐fire drought severity and distance to seed source (among other relevant factors) for tree species with contrasting post‐fire regeneration adaptations. Results Total post‐fire tree seedling establishment (all species combined) declined sharply with greater post‐fire drought severity and with greater distance to seed sources (i.e. the interior of burn patches). Effects varied among key species groups. For conifers that dominate present‐day subalpine forests (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa), post‐fire seedling establishment declined sharply with both factors. One exception was serotinous Pinus contorta, which did not vary with either factor. For montane species expected to move upslope under future climate change (Larix occidentalis, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Populus tremuloides) and upper treeline species (Pinus albicaulis), establishment was unrelated to either factor. Greater post‐fire tree seedling establishment on cooler/wetter aspects suggested local topographic refugia during post‐fire droughts. Main conclusions If future drought and wildfire patterns manifest as expected, post‐fire tree seedling establishment of species that currently characterize subalpine forests could be substantially reduced. Compensatory increases from lower montane and upper treeline species may partially offset these reductions, but our data suggest important near‐ to mid‐term shifts in the composition and structure of high‐elevation forests under continued climate warming and increased wildfire activity.     

A new global biome reconstruction and data-model comparison for the Middle Pliocene

Aim To produce a robust, comprehensive global biome reconstruction for the Middle Pliocene (c. 3.6–2.6 Ma), which is based on an internally consistent palaeobotanical data set and a state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate–vegetation model. The reconstruction gives a more rigorous picture of climate and environmental change during the Middle Pliocene and provides a new boundary condition for future general circulation model (GCM) studies. Location Global. Methods Compilation of Middle Pliocene vegetation data from 202 marine and terrestrial sites into the comprehensive GIS data base TEVIS (Tertiary Environmental Information System). Translation into an internally consistent classification scheme using 28 biomes. Comparison and synthesis of vegetation reconstruction from palaeodata with the outputs of the mechanistically based BIOME4 model forced by climatology derived from the HadAM3 GCM. Results The model results compare favourably with available palaeodata and highlight the importance of employing vegetation–climate feedbacks and the anomaly method in biome models. Both the vegetation reconstruction from palaeobotanical data and the BIOME4 prediction indicate a general warmer and moister climate for the Middle Pliocene. Evergreen taiga as well as temperate forest and grassland shifted northward, resulting in much reduced tundra vegetation. Warm‐temperate forests (with subtropical taxa) spread in mid and eastern Europe and tropical savannas and woodland expanded in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Discrepancies which occurred between data reconstruction and model simulation can be related to: (1) poor spatial model resolution and data coverage; (2) uncertainties in delimiting biomes using climate parameters; or (3) uncertainties in model physics and/or geological boundary conditions. Main conclusions The new global biome reconstruction combines vegetation reconstruction from palaeobotanical proxies with model simulations. It is an important contribution to the further understanding of climate and vegetation changes during the Middle Pliocene warm interval and will enhance our knowledge about how vegetation may change in the future.     

Climate change decreases the cooling effect from postfire albedo in boreal North America

Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS‐derived ‘blue sky’ albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire‐driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of ?1.77 ± 1.35 W/m² from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971–2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south–north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large‐scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long‐term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%–28% due to climate change.     

Post‐fire vegetation and climate dynamics in low‐elevation forests over the last three millennia in Yellowstone National Park

Conifer forests of the western US are historically well adapted to wildfires, but current warming is creating novel disturbance regimes that may fundamentally change future forest dynamics. Stand‐replacing fires can catalyze forest reorganization by providing periodic opportunities for establishment of new tree cohorts that set the stage for stand development for centuries to come. Extensive research on modern and past fires in the Northern Rockies reveals how variations in climate and fire have led to large changes in forest distribution and composition. Unclear, however, is the importance of individual fire episodes in catalyzing change. We used high‐resolution paleoecologic and paleoclimatic data from Crevice Lake (Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA), to explore the role of fire in driving low‐elevation forest dynamics over the last 2820 yr. We addressed two questions: 1) did low‐elevation forests at Crevice Lake experience abrupt community‐level vegetation changes in response to past fire events? 2) Did the interaction of short‐term disturbance events (fire) and long‐term climate change catalyze past shifts in forest composition? Over the last 2820 yr, we found no evidence for abrupt community‐level vegetation transitions at Crevice Lake, and no evidence that an interaction of climate and fire produced changes in the relative abundance of dominant plant taxa. In part, this result reflects limitations of the datasets to detect past event‐specific responses and their causes. Nonetheless, the relative stability of the vegetation to fires over the last 2820 yr provides a local baseline for assessing current and future ecological change. Observations of climate–fire–vegetation dynamics in recent decades suggest that this multi‐millennial‐scale baseline may soon be exceeded.     

Whole range and regional‐based ecological niche models predict differing exposure to 21st century climate change in the key cool temperate rainforest tree southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii)

The warmer and drier climates projected for the mid‐ to late‐21st century may have particularly adverse impacts on the cool temperate rainforests of southeastern Australia. Southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii; Nothofagaceae), a dominant tree species in these forests, may be vulnerable to minor changes in its climate envelope, especially at the edge of the species range, with Holocene fossil evidence showing local extinction of populations in response to small climate changes. We modelled the stability of this species climate envelope using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and two thresholds of presence/absence by projecting the modern climate envelope onto four Global Circulation Models forecasted for two time periods (2050s and 2070s). The climate envelope, as estimated from the species present climatic range, is predicted to shrink by up to 49% by the 2050s and up to 64% by the 2070s. The greatest predicted reduction is in Victoria with 91–100% of its current range being climatically unsuitable by the 2070s. Climatically similar areas to the species present range are predicted to remain in mountainous areas of western Tasmania, the Northeast Highlands of Tasmania, and the Baw Baw Plateau in the Central Highlands of Victoria. However, region‐specific modelling approaches made very different predictions from the whole‐range based models, especially in the severity of the predicted decline for Victorian populations of N. cunninghamii which occur in much warmer climates than the rest of the species geographical range. This shows that, for widespread species that span a range of climate zones, the exposure of current populations to climate change may be better modelled using a regional based approach. How the species responds to climate change will depend on the species ability to respond to drier and warmer climates and the concomitant increase in fire intensity.     

Post-Glacial Climate–Fire Interactions Control Tree Composition of Mesic Temperate Forests in Eastern North America

Stand-scale gap-phase dynamics is generally viewed as the main driver of development in mesic deciduous forests of the temperate biome. Soil charcoal of temperate forests in eastern North America are unnoticed in most surveys, thus explaining why fire is undervalued as a driver of forest succession. The extent to which gap-phase, fire, or other processes are responsible for the regeneration and maintenance of mesic deciduous forests is unknown because paleoecological evidence is lacking. We tested the fire-driven succession hypothesis on the development of this major forest type. Based on charcoal ¹⁴C dates of two sites, 44 and 55 fires occurred since early Holocene, with a mean interval of 170 to 215 years. The vegetation of both sites followed comparable post-glacial trajectories consisting of three distinct periods. Conifers dominated the two first periods during 5200–6000 years and were replaced by hardwoods–conifers over the last 3500 years. The first period was represented by boreal conifers, whereas the second period, dominated by white pine (Pinus strobus) forests, persisted during 3000–4300 years. The third period marked the development of hardwood (sugar maple, Acer saccharum) forests. Fires occurred continuously on the sites since early Holocene likely under dry conditions during the conifer periods and cooler and moister conditions during the hardwood–conifer period. Recurrent fires appear with climate as key drivers of the long-term dynamics of several temperate forests in eastern North America. Similar studies on other temperate forests should be pursued to test the hypothesis of climate–fire interactions influencing tree composition change.

     

Disturbance maintains alternative biome states

Understanding the mechanisms controlling the distribution of biomes remains a challenge. Although tropical biome distribution has traditionally been explained by climate and soil, contrasting vegetation types often occur as mosaics with sharp boundaries under very similar environmental conditions. While evidence suggests that these biomes are alternative states, empirical broad‐scale support to this hypothesis is still lacking. Using community‐level field data and a novel resource‐niche overlap approach, we show that, for a wide range of environmental conditions, fire feedbacks maintain savannas and forests as alternative biome states in both the Neotropics and the Afrotropics. In addition, wooded grasslands and savannas occurred as alternative grassy states in the Afrotropics, depending on the relative importance of fire and herbivory feedbacks. These results are consistent with landscape scale evidence and suggest that disturbance is a general factor driving and maintaining alternative biome states and vegetation mosaics in the tropics.