Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change

Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.     

Candidate gene SNP variation in floodplain populations of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) near the species' southern range margin: Weak differentiation yet distinct associations with water availability

Populations residing near species' low‐latitude range margins (LLMs) often occur in warmer and drier environments than those in the core range. Thus, their genetic composition could be shaped by climatic drivers that differ from those occurring at higher latitudes, resulting in potentially adaptive variants of conservation value. Such variants could facilitate the adaptation of populations from other portions of the geographical range to similar future conditions anticipated under ongoing climate change. However, very few studies have assessed standing genetic variation at potentially adaptive loci in natural LLM populations. We investigated standing genetic variation at single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located within 117 candidate genes and its links to putative climatic selection pressures across 19 pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) populations distributed along a regional climatic gradient near the species' southern range margin in southeastern Europe. These populations are restricted to floodplain forests along large lowland rivers, whose hydric regime is undergoing significant shifts under modern rapid climate change. The populations showed very weak geographical structure, suggesting extensive genetic connectivity and gene flow or shared ancestry. We identified eight (6.2%) positive F_ST‐outlier loci, and genotype–environment association analyses revealed consistent associations between SNP allele frequencies and several climatic variables linked to water availability. A total of 61 associations involving 37 SNPs (28.5%) from 35 annotated genes provided important insights into putative functional mechanisms in our system. Our findings provide empirical support for the role of LLM populations as sources of potentially adaptive variation that could enhance species’ resilience to climate change‐related pressures.     

Integrated Environmental and Genomic Analysis Reveals the Drivers of Local Adaptation in African Indigenous Chickens

Breeding for climate resilience is currently an important goal for sustainable livestock production. Local adaptations exhibited by indigenous livestock allow investigating the genetic control of this resilience. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) provides a powerful avenue to identify the main environmental drivers of selection. Here, we applied an integrative approach combining ENM with genome-wide selection signature analyses (XPEHH and Fst) and genotype−environment association (redundancy analysis), with the aim of identifying the genomic signatures of adaptation in African village chickens. By dissecting 34 agro-climatic variables from the ecosystems of 25 Ethiopian village chicken populations, ENM identified six key drivers of environmental challenges: One temperature variable—strongly correlated with elevation, three precipitation variables as proxies for water availability, and two soil/land cover variables as proxies of food availability for foraging chickens. Genome analyses based on whole-genome sequencing (n = 245), identified a few strongly supported genomic regions under selection for environmental challenges related to altitude, temperature, water scarcity, and food availability. These regions harbor several gene clusters including regulatory genes, suggesting a predominantly oligogenic control of environmental adaptation. Few candidate genes detected in relation to heat-stress, indicates likely epigenetic regulation of thermo-tolerance for a domestic species originating from a tropical Asian wild ancestor. These results provide possible explanations for the rapid past adaptation of chickens to diverse African agro-ecologies, while also representing new landmarks for sustainable breeding improvement for climate resilience. We show that the pre-identification of key environmental drivers, followed by genomic investigation, provides a powerful new approach for elucidating adaptation in domestic animals.     

Signatures of local adaptation along environmental gradients in a range‐expanding damselfly (Ischnura elegans)

Insect distributions are shifting rapidly in response to climate change and are undergoing rapid evolutionary change. We investigate the molecular signatures underlying local adaptation in the range‐expanding damselfly, Ischnura elegans. Using a landscape genomic approach combined with generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM), we detect selection signatures on loci via allelic frequency change along environmental gradients. We analyse 13,612 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), derived from restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (RADseq), in 426 individuals from 25 sites spanning the I. elegans distribution in Sweden, including its expanding northern range edge. Environmental association analysis (EAA) and the magnitude of allele frequency change along the range expansion gradient revealed significant signatures of selection in relation to high maximum summer temperature, high mean annual precipitation and low wind speeds at the range edge. SNP annotations with significant signatures of selection revealed gene functions associated with ongoing range expansion, including heat shock proteins (HSP40 and HSP70), ion transport (V‐ATPase) and visual processes (long‐wavelength‐sensitive opsin), which have implications for thermal stress response, salinity tolerance and mate discrimination, respectively. We also identified environmental thresholds where climate‐mediated selection is likely to be strong, and indicate that I. elegans is rapidly adapting to the climatic environment during its ongoing range expansion. Our findings empirically validate an integrative approach for detecting spatially explicit signatures of local adaptation along environmental gradients.     

The Genetic Architecture of Climatic Adaptation of Tropical Cattle

Adaptation of global food systems to climate change is essential to feed the world. Tropical cattle production, a mainstay of profitability for farmers in the developing world, is dominated by heat, lack of water, poor quality feedstuffs, parasites, and tropical diseases. In these systems European cattle suffer significant stock loss, and the cross breeding of taurine x indicine cattle is unpredictable due to the dilution of adaptation to heat and tropical diseases. We explored the genetic architecture of ten traits of tropical cattle production using genome wide association studies of 4,662 animals varying from 0% to 100% indicine. We show that nine of the ten have genetic architectures that include genes of major effect, and in one case, a single location that accounted for more than 71% of the genetic variation. One genetic region in particular had effects on parasite resistance, yearling weight, body condition score, coat colour and penile sheath score. This region, extending 20 Mb on BTA5, appeared to be under genetic selection possibly through maintenance of haplotypes by breeders. We found that the amount of genetic variation and the genetic correlations between traits did not depend upon the degree of indicine content in the animals. Climate change is expected to expand some conditions of the tropics to more temperate environments, which may impact negatively on global livestock health and production. Our results point to several important genes that have large effects on adaptation that could be introduced into more temperate cattle without detrimental effects on productivity.     

Livestock Diversification: an Adaptive Strategy to Climate and Rangeland Ecosystem Changes in Southern Ethiopia

Pastoral cattle production in southern Ethiopia is becoming increasingly vulnerable to impacts of climate variability and rangeland resource degradation, giving rise to livestock diversification. Using a household (n?=?242) survey among herders, the relative functions, adaptability and vulnerability of four livestock species and factors influencing livestock diversification were analyzed. The stated major drivers of livestock diversification were recurrent droughts, bush encroachment, increased vulnerability of cattle and growing demand for adaptive species. Different livestock species are kept to fulfill various livelihood priorities with subsistence objectives outweighing production goals of the herders. Adaptability and vulnerability analyses of the livestock species showed camels and cattle to be the most and least adaptable species, respectively. Livestock species diversification varied significantly with family size and per capita holding of cattle, implicating the influence of labor and economic factors on adoptions. Multispecies herding emerged as the dominant local adaptation strategy, likely because it enhances resilience of households to climate and rangeland ecosystem changes by broadening the set of existing strategies.     

A unigene set for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and its use to decipher the molecular mechanisms involved in dormancy regulation

Systematic sequencing is the method of choice for generating genomic resources for molecular marker development and candidate gene identification in nonmodel species. We generated 47 357 Sanger ESTs and 2.2M Roche‐454 reads from five cDNA libraries for European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). This tree species of high ecological and economic value in Europe is among the most representative trees of deciduous broadleaf forests. The sequences generated were assembled into 21 057 contigs with MIRA software. Functional annotations were obtained for 85% of these contigs, from the proteomes of four plant species, Swissprot accessions and the Gene Ontology database. We were able to identify 28 079 in silico SNPs for future marker development. Moreover, RNAseq and qPCR approaches identified genes and gene networks regulated differentially between two critical phenological stages preceding vegetative bud burst (the quiescent and swelling buds stages). According to climatic model‐based projection, some European beech populations may be endangered, particularly at the southern and eastern edges of the European distribution range, which are strongly affected by current climate change. This first genomic resource for the genus Fagus should facilitate the identification of key genes for beech adaptation and management strategies for preserving beech adaptability.     

PRLH and SOD1 gene variations associated with heat tolerance in Chinese cattle

With the proposed global climate change, heat tolerance is becoming increasingly important to the sustainability of livestock production systems. Results from previous studies showed that variants in the prolactin releasing hormone (PRLH) (AC_000160.1:g.11764610G>A) and superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) (AC_000158.1:g.3116044T>A) genes play an important role in heat tolerance in African indicine cattle. However, it is unknown whether or not the mutations are associated with heat tolerance in Chinese cattle. In this study, PCR and DNA sequencing were used to genotype two missense mutations in 725 individuals of 30 cattle breeds. Analysis results demonstrated that two classes of base substitution were detected at two loci: AC_000160.1:g.11764610G>A and AC_000158.1:g.3116044T>A or T>C respectively, with amino acid substitutions arginine to histidine and phenylalanine to isoleucine or leucine. The frequencies of the G and T alleles of the two loci gradually diminished from northern groups to southern groups of native Chinese cattle, whereas the frequencies of A and A or C alleles showed a contrary pattern, displaying a significant geographical difference across native Chinese cattle breeds. Additionally, analysis of these two loci in Chinese indigenous cattle revealed that two SNPs were significantly associated with mean annual temperature (T), relative humidity (RH) and temperature humidity index (THI) (P < 0.01), suggesting that cattle with A or C alleles were distributed in regions with higher T, RH and THI. Our results suggest that the two mutations of PRLH and SOD1 genes in Chinese cattle were associated with the heat tolerance.     

Parallel adaptation to climate above the 35th parallel

Independent or parallel evolution of similar traits is key to understanding the genetics and limitations of adaptation. Adaptation from the same genetic changes in different populations defines parallel evolution. Such genetic changes can derive from standing ancestral variation or de novo mutations and excludes instances of adaptive introgression. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Walden et al.(2020) investigate the scale of parallel climate adaptation from standing genetic variation between two North American Arabidopsis lyrata lineages, each formed by a distinct evolutionary history during the last glacial cycle. By identifying adaptive variants correlated with three ecologically significant climatic gradients, they show that instead of the same genetic variants or even genes, parallel evolution is only observed at the level of biological processes. The evolution of independent adaptive variants to climate in two genetically close lineages is explained by their different post‐glacial demographic histories. Separate glacial refugia and strong population bottlenecks were probably sufficient to change the landscape of shared allele frequencies, hindering the possibility of parallel evolution.     

Single Base-Resolution Methylome of the Dizygotic Sheep

Sheep is an important livestock in the world for meat, dairy and wool production. The third version of sheep reference genome has been recently assembled, but sheep DNA methylome has not been profiled yet. In this study, we report the comprehensive sheep methylome with 94.38% cytosine coverage at single base resolution by sequencing DNA samples from Longissimus dorsi of dizygotic Sunit sheep, which were bred in different habitats. We also compared methylomes between the twin sheep. DNA methylation status at genome-scale differentially methylated regions (DMRs), functional genomic regions and 248 DMR-containing genes were identified between the twin sheep. Gene ontology (GO) and KEGG annotations of these genes were performed to discover computationally predicted function. Lipid metabolism, sexual maturity and tumor-associated categories were observed to significantly enrich DMR-containing genes. These findings could be used to illustrate the relationship between phenotypic variations and gene methylation patterns.     

Population genomics of the eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides)

Despite its economic importance as a bioenergy crop and key role in riparian ecosystems, little is known about genetic diversity and adaptation of the eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides). Here, we report the first population genomics study for this species, conducted on a sample of 425 unrelated individuals collected in 13 states of the southeastern United States. The trees were genotyped by targeted resequencing of 18,153 genes and 23,835 intergenic regions, followed by the identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This natural P. deltoides population showed low levels of subpopulation differentiation (F_ST = 0.022–0.106), high genetic diversity (θ_W = 0.00100, π = 0.00170), a large effective population size (N_e ≈ 32,900), and low to moderate levels of linkage disequilibrium. Additionally, genomewide scans for selection (Tajima's D), subpopulation differentiation (X^TX), and environmental association analyses with eleven climate variables carried out with two different methods (LFMM and BAYENV2) identified genes putatively involved in local adaptation. Interestingly, many of these genes were also identified as adaptation candidates in another poplar species, Populus trichocarpa, indicating possible convergent evolution. This study constitutes the first assessment of genetic diversity and local adaptation in P. deltoides throughout the southern part of its range, information we expect to be of use to guide management and breeding strategies for this species in future, especially in the face of climate change.     

Genome‐wide DNA methylation signatures of infection status in Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata)

Epigenetic modification, especially DNA methylation, can play an important role in mediating gene regulatory response to environmental stressors and may be a key process affecting phenotypic plasticity and adaptation. Parasites are potent stressors with profound physiological and ecological effects on their hosts, yet it remains unclear how parasites influence host methylation patterns. Here, we used a well‐studied host–parasite system, the guppy Poecilia reticulata and its ectoparasitic monogenean Gyrodactylus turnbulli to gain mechanistic insight into the dynamics of DNA methylation in host–parasite interactions. To explore this, we quantitatively measured genome‐wide DNA methylation in guppy skin tissue using reduced representation bisulphite sequencing and characterized differential methylation patterns in guppies during distinct phases of infection. We identified 365, 313, and 741 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) between infected and control fish in early infection, peak infection and recovery phases, respectively. The magnitude of the methylation difference was moderate in DMRs, with an average of 29% (early infection), 27% (peak infection) and 30% (recovery) differential methylation per DMR. Approximately 50% of DMRs overlapped with CpG islands, and over half of the DMRs overlapped with gene bodies, several of which encode proteins relevant to immune response. These findings provide the first evidence of an epigenetic signature of infection by ectoparasites and demonstrate the changing relationship between epigenetic variation and immune response in distinct phases of infection.     

The challenge of separating signatures of local adaptation from those of isolation by distance and colonization history: The case of two white pines

Accurately detecting signatures of local adaptation using genetic‐environment associations (GEAs) requires controlling for neutral patterns of population structure to reduce the risk of false positives. However, a high degree of collinearity between climatic gradients and neutral population structure can greatly reduce power, and the performance of GEA methods in such case is rarely evaluated in empirical studies. In this study, we attempted to disentangle the effects of local adaptation and isolation by environment (IBE) from those of isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by colonization from glacial refugia (IBC) using range‐wide samples in two white pine species. For this, SNPs from 168 genes, including 52 candidate genes for growth and phenology, were genotyped in 133 and 61 populations of Pinus strobus and P. monticola, respectively. For P. strobus and using all 153 SNPs, climate (IBE) did not significantly explained among‐population variation when controlling for IBD and IBC in redundancy analyses (RDAs). However, 26 SNPs were significantly associated with climate in single‐locus GEA analyses (Bayenv2 and LFMM), suggesting that local adaptation took place in the presence of high gene flow. For P. monticola, we found no evidence of IBE using RDAs and weaker signatures of local adaptation using GEA and F_ST outlier tests, consistent with adaptation via phenotypic plasticity. In both species, the majority of the explained among‐population variation (69 to 96%) could not be partitioned between the effects of IBE, IBD, and IBC. GEA methods can account differently for this confounded variation, and this could explain the small overlap of SNPs detected between Bayenv2 and LFMM. Our study illustrates the inherent difficulty of taking into account neutral structure in natural populations and the importance of sampling designs that maximize climatic variation, while minimizing collinearity between climatic gradients and neutral structure.     

Lineage‐specific adaptation to climate involves flowering time in North American Arabidopsis lyrata

Adaptation to local climatic conditions is commonly found within species, but whether it involves the same intraspecific genomic variants is unknown. We studied this question in North American Arabidopsis lyrata, whose current distribution is shaped by post‐glacial range expansion from two refugia, resulting in two distinct genetic clusters covering comparable climatic gradients. Using pooled whole‐genome sequence data of 41 outcrossing populations, we identified loci associated with three niche‐determining climatic variables in the two clusters and compared these outliers. Little evidence was found for parallelism in climate adaptation for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and for genes with an accumulation of outlier SNPs. Significantly increased selection coefficients supported them as candidates of climate adaptation. However, the fraction of gene ontology (GO) terms shared between clusters was higher compared to outlier SNPs and outlier genes, suggesting that selection acts on similar pathways but not necessarily the same genes. Enriched GO terms involved responses to abiotic and biotic stress, circadian rhythm and development, with flower development and reproduction being among the most frequently detected. In line with GO enrichment, regulators of flowering time were detected as outlier genes. Our results suggest that while adaptation to environmental gradients on the genomic level are lineage‐specific in A. lyrata, similar biological processes seem to be involved. Differential loss of standing genetic variation, probably driven by genetic drift, can in part account for the lack of parallel evolution on the genomic level.     

Patterns of persistence and isolation indicate resilience to climate change in montane rainforest lizards

Globally, montane tropical diversity is characterized by extraordinary local endemism that is not readily explained by current environmental variables indicating a strong imprint of history. Montane species often exist as isolated populations under current climatic conditions and may have remained isolated throughout recent climatic cycles, leading to substantial genetic and phenotypic divergence. Alternatively, populations may have become contiguous during colder climates resulting in less divergence. Here we compare responses to historical climate fluctuation in a montane specialist skink, Lampropholis robertsi, and its more broadly distributed congener, L. coggeri, both endemic to rainforests of northeast Australia. To do so, we combine spatial modelling of potential distributions under representative palaeoclimates, multi‐locus phylogeography and analyses of phenotypic variation. Spatial modelling of L. robertsi predicts strong isolation among disjunct montane refugia during warm climates, but with potential for localized exchange during the most recent glacial period. In contrast, predicted stable areas are more widespread and connected in L. coggeri. Both species exhibit pronounced phylogeographic structuring for mitochondrial and nuclear genes, attesting to low dispersal and high persistence across multiple isolated regions. This is most prominent in L. robertsi, for which coalescent analyses indicate that most populations persisted in isolation throughout the climate cycles of the Pleistocene. Morphological divergence, principally in body size, is more evident among isolated populations of L. robertsi than L. coggeri. These results highlight the biodiversity value of isolated montane populations and support the general hypothesis that tropical montane regions harbour high levels of narrow‐range taxa because of their resilience to past climate change.     

Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation–climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire‐sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon “montane rainforest”) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high‐resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.     

Functional genomic analysis of corals from natural CO2‐seeps reveals core molecular responses involved in acclimatization to ocean acidification

Little is known about the potential for acclimatization or adaptation of corals to ocean acidification and even less about the molecular mechanisms underpinning these processes. Here, we examine global gene expression patterns in corals and their intracellular algal symbionts from two replicate population pairs in Papua New Guinea that have undergone long‐term acclimatization to natural variation in pCO₂. In the coral host, only 61 genes were differentially expressed in response to pCO₂ environment, but the pattern of change was highly consistent between replicate populations, likely reflecting the core expression homeostasis response to ocean acidification. Functional annotations highlight lipid metabolism and a change in the stress response capacity of corals as key parts of this process. Specifically, constitutive downregulation of molecular chaperones was observed, which may impact response to combined climate change‐related stressors. Elevated CO₂ has been hypothesized to benefit photosynthetic organisms but expression changes of in hospite Symbiodinium in response to acidification were greater and less consistent among reef populations. This population‐specific response suggests hosts may need to adapt not only to an acidified environment, but also to changes in their Symbiodinium populations that may not be consistent among environments, adding another challenging dimension to the physiological process of coping with climate change.     

Tropical specialist vs. climate generalist: Diversification and demographic history of sister species of Carlia skinks from northwestern Australia

Species endemic to the tropical regions are expected to be vulnerable to future climate change due in part to their relatively narrow climatic niches. In addition, these species are more likely to have responded strongly to past climatic change, and this can be explored through phylogeographic analyses. To test the hypothesis that tropical specialists are more sensitive to climate change than climate generalists, we generated and analyse sequence data from mtDNA and ~2500 exons to compare scales of historical persistence and population fluctuation in two sister species of Australian rainbow skinks: the tropical specialist Carlia johnstonei and the climate generalist C. triacantha. We expect the tropical specialist species to have deeper and finer‐scale phylogeographic structure and stronger demographic fluctuations relative to the closely related climate generalist species, which should have had more stable populations through periods of harsh climate in the late Quaternary. Within C. johnstonei, we find that some populations from the northern Kimberley islands are highly divergent from mainland populations. In C. triacantha, one major clade occurs across the deserts and into the mesic Top End, and another occurs primarily in the Kimberley with scattered records eastwards. Where their ranges overlap in the Kimberley, both mitochondrial DNA and nuclear DNA suggest stronger phylogeographic structure and range expansion within the tropical specialist, whereas the climate generalist has minimal structuring and no evidence of recent past range expansion. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that tropical specialists are more sensitive to past climatic change.