Do species distribution models explain spatial structure within tree species ranges?

Aim To evaluate the ability of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the spatial structure of tree species within their geographical ranges (how trees are distributed within their ranges). Location Continental Spain. Methods We used an extensive dataset consisting of c. 90,000 plots (1 plot km^?2) where presence/absence data for 23 common Mediterranean and Atlantic tree species had been surveyed. We first generated SDMs relating the presence or absence of each species to a set of 16 environmental predictors, following a stepwise modelling process based on maximum likelihood methods. Superimposing spatial correlograms generated from the predictions of the SDMs over those generated from the raw data allowed a model–observation comparison of the nature, scale and intensity (level of aggregation) of spatial structure with the species ranges. Results SDMs predicted accurately the nature and scale of the spatial structure of trees. However, for most species, the observed intensity of spatial structure (level of aggregation of species in space) was substantially greater than that predicted by the SDMs. On average, the intensity of spatial aggregation was twice that predicted by SDMs. In addition, we also found a negative correlation between intensity of aggregation and species range size. Main conclusions Standard SDM predictions of spatial structure patterns differ among species. SDMs are apparently able to reproduce both the scale and intensity of species spatial structure within their ranges. However, one or more missing processes not included in SDMs results in species being substantially more aggregated in space than can be captured by the SDMs. This result adds to recent calls for a new generation of more biologically realistic SDMs. In particular, future SDMs should incorporate ecological processes that are likely to increase the intensity of spatial aggregation, such as source–sink dynamics, fine‐scale environmental heterogeneity and disequilibrium.     

Does flood tolerance explain tree species distribution in tropical seasonally flooded habitats?

In the tropics, seasonally flooded forests (SFF) harbor fewer tree species than terra firme (i.e. non-flooded) forests. The low species diversity of tropical flooded forests has been ascribed to the paucity of species with adaptations to tolerate flooding. To test the hypothesis that flooding is the only factor restricting most species from SFF, we compared plant morphological and physiological responses to flooding in 2-month old seedlings of 6 species common to SFF and 12 species common to terra firme forests. Although flooding impaired growth, total biomass, maximum root length and stomatal conductance in most species, responses varied greatly and were species-specific. For example, after 90 days, flooding reduced leaf area growth by 10-50% in all species, except in Tabebuia, a common species from non-flooded habitats. Similarly, flooding had a 5-45% negative effect on total biomass for all species, except in 1 SFF and 1 terra firme species both of which had more biomass under flooding. A principal component analysis, using the above responses to flooding, provided no evidence that SFF and terra firme species differed in their responses to flooding. Flooding also caused reductions in root growth for most species. Rooting depth and root: shoot ratios were significantly less affected by flooding in SFF than in terra firme species. Although flood tolerance is critical for survival in flooded habitats, we hypothesize that responses to post-flooding events such as drought might be equally important in seasonal habitats. Therefore, we suggest that the ability to grow roots under anoxia might be critical in predicting success in inundated habitats that also experience a strong dry season.     

Climate–growth relationships of the dominant tree species from semi-arid savanna woodland in Ethiopia

Long-term climate–growth relationships, were examined in tree rings of four co-occurring tree species from semi-arid Acacia savanna woodlands in Ethiopia. The main purpose of the study was to prove the presence of annual tree rings, evaluate the relationship between radial growth and climate parameters, and evaluate the association of El Niño and drought years in Ethiopia. The results showed that all species studied form distinct growth boundaries, though differences in distinctiveness were revealed among the species. Tree rings of the evergreen Balanites aegyptiaca were separated by vessels surrounding a thin parenchyma band and the growth boundary of the deciduous acacias was characterized by thin parenchyma bands. The mean annual diameter increment ranged from 3.6 to 5.0 mm. Acacia senegal and Acacia seyal showed more enhanced growth than Acacia tortilis and B. aegyptiaca. High positive correlations were found between the tree-ring width chronologies and precipitation data, and all species showed similar response to external climate forcing, which supports the formation of one tree-ring per year. Strong declines in tree-ring width correlated remarkably well with past El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and drought/famine periods in Ethiopia. Spectral analysis of the master tree-ring chronology indicated occurrences of periodic drought events, which fall within the spectral peak equivalent to 2–8 years. Our results proved the strong linkage between tree-ring chronologies and climate, which sheds light on the potential of dendrochronological studies developing in Ethiopia. The outcome of this study has important implications for paleoclimatic reconstructions and in restoration of degraded lands.     

How does forest landscape structure explain tree species richness in a Mediterranean context?

Although the strong relationship between vegetation and climatic factors is widely accepted, other landscape composition and configuration characteristics could be significantly related with vegetation diversity patterns at different scales. Variation partitioning was conducted in order to analyse to what degree forest landscape structure, compared to other spatial and environmental factors, explained forest tree species richness in 278 UTM 10 × 10 km cells in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia (NE Spain). Tree species richness variation was decomposed through linear regression into three groups of explanatory variables: forest landscape (composition and configuration), environmental (topography and climate) and spatial variables. Additionally, the forest landscape characteristics which significantly contributed to explain richness variation were identified through a multiple regression model. About 60% of tree species richness variation was explained by the whole set of variables, while their joint effects explained nearly 28%. Forest landscape variables were those with a greater pure explanatory power for tree species richness (about 15% of total variation), much larger than the pure effect of environmental or spatial variables (about 2% each). Forest canopy cover, forest area and land cover diversity were the most significant composition variables in the regression model. Landscape configuration metrics had a minor effect on forest tree species richness, with the exception of some shape complexity indices, as indicators of land use intensity and edge effects. Our results highlight the importance of considering the forest landscape structure in order to understand the distribution of vegetation diversity in strongly human-modified regions like the Mediterranean.     

Can a breakdown in competition–colonization tradeoffs help explain the success of exotic species in the California flora?

Determining combinations of functional traits that allow a species to colonize new habitats has been central in the development of invasion ecology. Species able to establish in new communities harbor abilities or traits that allow them to use resources or tolerate stress in ways that native species cannot. Tradeoffs among species functional traits along the competition–colonization (CC) continuum, where competitive ability is a decreasing function of dispersal capacity, may allow invasive species to establish themselves in new habitats. The California flora offers a well‐characterized model system to examine whether native and exotic species differ in the distribution of functional traits and to examine whether a breakdown of the CC tradeoff is present. We used a random subset of 1000 plants and examined seed traits and life form characteristics along with their seed size and adult height using the Jepson Manual of the plants of California. To test the hypothesis that active dispersal strategies aid in the success of exotic species, we classified species into four seed types according to the presence/absence of mechanisms associated with efficient dispersal. In addition, for each species we compiled data on seed size and adult plant height. We conducted all comparisons between native and exotic species within the four most speciose families to control for potential taxonomic non‐independence. Exotic species had smaller seed size but greater plant height than natives of the same families. On the other hand, exotic species also displayed significantly greater proportions of functional traits that enhanced dispersal ability. Additionally, certain sets of functional traits were significantly associated with exotic species, such as annual life histories with small seeds and high dispersal capacity. In the random subset of the California flora examined, exotics of the most speciose plant families show functional trait combinations that appear to violate the tradeoff structures observed in their California counterparts. Our results suggest that taxonomically controlled comparisons of the CC tradeoff structure between natives and exotic species may shed light of the capacity of those exotic species invasive ability to colonize new habitats.     

Can differences in phosphorus uptake kinetics explain the distribution of cattail and sawgrass in the Florida Everglades?

Background  

Cattail (Typha domingensis) has been spreading in phosphorus (P) enriched areas of the oligotrophic Florida Everglades at the expense of sawgrass (Cladium mariscus spp. jamaicense). Abundant evidence in the literature explains how the opportunistic features of Typha might lead to a complete dominance in P-enriched areas. Less clear is how Typha can grow and acquire P at extremely low P levels, which prevail in the unimpacted areas of the Everglades.     

Can the mass effect explain the mid-altitudinal peak in vascular plant species richness?

A mid-altitudinal peak in species richness is commonly observed and the mass effect (or source–sink effect) has been suggested as a possible cause. We test the importance of the mass effect for generating altitudinal patterns of plant species richness at two grain sizes using a simple estimate of sterility/fertility to indicate sinks and sources. To do this we identified species with fertile specimens (fertile species) and species with only sterile specimens (sterile species) in each sampling unit along altitudinal transects and assumed that the number of sterile species indicated the relative number of sink species, correspondingly that the number of fertile species indicated the relative number of source species when looking at the overall pattern of species richness along a transect. To evaluate this approach, we investigated the distribution of sterility and fertility of each species along the altitudinal transects. We found that sterile species are found more often at the edges and fertile species more often in the centre of the species altitudinal ranges than expected by chance. Using a fine grain, sterile species richness had a humped altitudinal pattern on all transects investigated at this scale, whereas using a coarse grain two of the three transects investigated had a humped pattern. At the fine grain, sterile species richness had a more pronounced peak than fertile species richness in two of the three transects investigated supporting the hypothesis of the mass effect, but this pattern did not persist at coarser grain. The observations at the fine grain are in accordance with the idea that the mass effect is important in shaping the mid-altitudinal peak in species richness, whereas the observations from the coarser grain are ambiguous.     

Does governance play a role in the distribution of invasive alien species?

Invasive alien species (IAS) constitute a major threat to global biological diversity. In order to control their spread, a detailed understanding of the factors influencing their distribution is essential. Although international trade is regarded as a major force structuring spatial patterns of IAS, the role of other social factors remains unclear. Despite studies highlighting the importance of strong governance in slowing drivers of biodiversity loss such as logging, deforestation, and agricultural intensification, no study has yet analyzed its contribution to the issue of IAS. Using estimates of governance quality and comprehensive spatiotemporal IAS data, we performed multiple linear regressions to investigate the effect of governance quality upon the distribution of species listed under “100 of the worst” IAS in 38 Eurasian countries as defined by DASIE. Our model suggested that for countries with higher GDP, stronger governance was associated with a greater number of the worst IAS; in contrast, for the lowest GDP countries under analysis, stronger governance was associated with fewer of these IAS. We elucidate how the quality of governance within a country has implications for trade, tourism, transport, legislation, and economic development, all of which influence the spread of IAS. While our findings support the common assumption that strengthening governance benefits conservation interventions in countries of smaller economy, we find that this effect is not universal. Stronger governance alone cannot adequately address the problem of IAS, and targeted action is required in relatively high‐GDP countries in order to stem the influx of IAS associated with high volumes of trade.     

What controls the distribution of tropical forest and savanna?

Forest and savanna biomes dominate the tropics, yet factors controlling their distribution remain poorly understood. Climate is clearly important, but extensive savannas in some high rainfall areas suggest a decoupling of climate and vegetation. In some situations edaphic factors are important, with forest often associated with high nutrient availability. Fire also plays a key role in limiting forest, with fire exclusion often causing a switch from savanna to forest. These observations can be captured by a broad conceptual model with two components: (1) forest and savanna are alternative stable states, maintained by tree cover-fire feedbacks, (2) the interaction between tree growth rates and fire frequency limits forest development; any factor that increases growth (e.g. elevated availability of water, nutrients, CO(2)), or decreases fire frequency, will favour canopy closure. This model is consistent with the range of environmental variables correlated with forest distribution, and with the current trend of forest expansion, likely driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations. Resolving the drivers of forest and savanna distribution has moved beyond simple correlative studies that are unlikely to establish ultimate causation. Experiments using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, parameterised with measurements from each continent, provide an important tool for understanding the controls of these systems.     

Can differences in salinity tolerance explain the distribution of four genetically distinct lineages of Phragmites australis in the Mississippi River Delta?

In the Mississippi River Delta, the common wetland grass, Phragmites australis, displays high genetic diversity, as several genetically distinct populations are co-occurring. Differences in salinity tolerance may be an important factor determining these populations’ distribution in the delta. Our study investigated the salt tolerance of four genotypes exposed to 0, 10, 20, 30, and 40 ppt salinity. The growth rate, biomass, and the light-saturated photosynthetic rate were stimulated at 10 ppt salinity and inhibited at salinities higher than 20 ppt, compared to controls. Increased concentrations of Cl^? and Na⁺ were found in the roots and older leaves of plants exposed to high salinities. Salt tolerance levels differed between genotypes. High salinity tolerance was mainly achieved by reduced water uptake and vacuole compartmentalization of toxic ions. The most tolerant genotype sustained biomass and photosynthesis even at 40 ppt, whereas the most sensitive genotype did not survive salinities higher than 20 ppt. Our findings show that the observed occurrence of different genotypes in the Mississippi River Delta is correlated to genetically determined differences in salinity tolerance. Further investigations are needed to better understand the role that salinity tolerance plays in the invasion of certain introduced P. australis genotypes.     

Can host body size explain the parasite species richness in tropical freshwater fishes?

Summary The variability of monogenean gill ectoparasite species richness in 19 West African cyprinid species was analyzed using the following seven predictor variables: host size, number of drainage basins, number of sympatric cyprinid species, host diversity, association with mainland forest, host ecology, and monogenean biological labelling. The size of the host species accounted for 77% of the variation in the number of parasite species per host, and host ecology an additional 8%. Together the effects of host size and host ecology accounted for 85% of the variation in monogenean species richness. This study shows that the deciding factors for explaining monogenean species richness in West African cyprinid fishes are host species size and host ecology. These results were compared with main factors responsible for parasite species richness in fish communities. Other possible explanations of monogenean community structure in west African cyprinids are discussed.     

Do dispersal traits of wetland plant species explain tolerance against isolation effects in naturally fragmented habitats?

Plant Ecology - The effects of habitat fragmentation and isolation on plant species richness have been verified for a wide range of anthropogenically fragmented habitats, but there is currently...     

Large-scale synchrony of gap dynamics and the distribution of understory tree species in maple–beech forests

Large-scale synchronous variations in community dynamics are well documented for a vast array of organisms, but are considerably less understood for forest trees. Because of temporal variations in canopy gap dynamics, forest communities—even old-growth ones—are never at equilibrium at the stand scale. This paucity of equilibrium may also be true at the regional scale. Our objectives were to determine (1) if nonequilibrium dynamics caused by temporal variations in the formation of canopy gaps are regionally synchronized, and (2) if spatiotemporal variations in canopy gap formation affect the relative abundance of tree species in the understory. We examined these questions by analyzing variations in the suppression and release history of Acer saccharum Marsh. and Fagus grandifolia Ehrh. from 481 growth series of understory saplings taken from 34 mature stands. We observed that (1) the proportion of stems in release as a function of time exhibited a U-shaped pattern over the last 35 years, with the lowest levels occurring during 1975–1985, and that (2) the response to this in terms of species composition was that A. saccharum became more abundant at sites that had the highest proportion of stems in release during 1975–1985. We concluded that the understory dynamics, typically thought of as a stand-scale process, may be regionally synchronized.     

How many species of host-specific insects feed on a species of tropical tree?

The assumptions on the host specificity of beetles that led Terry Erwin to suggest that there may be over 30 million arthropod species were tested for 10 species of trees and their insect associates at a rainforest site in Papua New Guinea. The data included 391 species and 4696 individuals of herbivorous beetles collected during a one year period using hand collecting, beating, branch clipping, intercept flight traps and pyrethrum knockdown. Insect host specificity was assessed by feeding trials in captivity. The data suggest that between 23 and 37 monophagous leaf-feeding species are most likely to be present in this system, whereas Erwin's method yields an estimate of 138 monophagous species. The major factors responsible for the discrepancy between our observations and Erwin's assumptions appears to be (a) the importance of transient species; (b) the insect fauna that is shared among tree species; (c) some generalist wood-eating species may inflate the apparent species richness of leaf-feeding beetles; and (d) the proportion of specialist species varies significantly among tree species. We conclude that studies reporting the proportion of specialist insect herbivores associated with particular tropical tree species will yield only a portion of the information needed to estimate global arthropod species richness, but may be useful for elucidating certain aspects of food-web ecology in tropical rain forests.     

Can receiver psychology explain the evolution of aposematism?

The evolution of aposematism is difficult to explain because: (1) new aposematic morphs will be relatively rare and thus risk extinction during predator education; and (2) aposematic morphs lack the protection of crypsis, and thus appear to invite attacks. I describe a simple method for evaluating whether rare aposematic morphs may be selectively advantaged by their effects on predator psychologies. Using a simulated virtual predator, I consider the advantages that might accrue to dispersed and aggregated morphs if aposematic prey can cause neophobic avoidance, accelerate avoidance learning and decelerate predator forgetting. Simulations show that aposematism is very hard to explain unless there are particular combinations of ecological and psychological factors. If prey are dispersed throughout a locality then aposematism will be favoured only if (1) there is neophobia, learning effects and forgetting or if (2) there are learning effects and warning signals reduce forgetting rates. However, the best scenario for aposematic advantage involves learning rates, forgetting and neophobia when prey are aggregated. Prey aggregation has two important effects. First, it is a highly effective way to maximize the per capita benefits of the neophobia. Second, after an attack on a single prey the benefits of learnt aversions will be immediately conferred on the surviving members of an aggregation without the diluting effects of forgetting. Aggregation therefore provides good protection against forgetting. The simulations thus provide new insights into the complexities of aposematic protection and suggest some important directions for empirical work. Copyright 2001 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.     

Can salinity-induced mortality explain larval vertical distribution with respect to a halocline?

For the larvae of two echinoderm species that coexist in Atlantic Canada (bipinnaria of the sea star Asterias rubens and 4- and 6-arm echinoplutei of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis), we examined the effect of short- and long-term exposure to salinity (ranging from 18 to 35) on the probability of larval survival in laboratory experiments. We also related larval vertical distributions in response to sharp haloclines generated in the laboratory to survival probability in the salinity of different layers in the water column. For both species and developmental stages, survival probability decreased with decreasing salinity, and a salinity range of 24-27 emerged as the critical threshold for larval tolerance. The relationship between the proportion of larvae that crossed a halocline into the top water layer and the survival probability of larvae in the salinity of that layer was significant for both species. Interestingly, the shape of this response was species-specific but not stage-specific for S. droebachiensis. Our findings suggest that larval avoidance of low-salinity water layers may be an adaptive behavior that increases survival and indirectly influences larval distribution.     

Can environmental tolerances explain convergent patterns of distribution in endemic spring snails from opposite sides of the Australian arid zone?

Patterns of distribution are influenced by species environmental requirements and limits, but experimental tests are needed to discern whether correlates of abundance directly affect survival and success. Springs in Australia’s arid interior support a wide diversity of gastropods only found in springs, and these species show dichotomous patterns of distribution. “Amphibious” species are broadly distributed across many springs and microhabitats, and “aquatic” species confined to the deepest pool areas within large springs. This pattern appears to be driven by the interaction between different environmental conditions in different microhabitats and the environmental tolerances of each endemic snail species. Factorial experiments were used to test whether conditions in the environmentally extreme and variable tail area of springs (considering pH, conductivity, temperature and desiccation potential, alone and in synergistic scenarios) elicited lethal or sub-lethal responses in spring snails endemic to springs on opposite sides of the Australian arid zone. All species restricted to spring pools were able to endure 24 h exposed to the average tail conditions, alone and in combination, but most suffered mortalities when subjected to extremes, and mortalities occurred sooner in the most restricted species when elevated pH and conductivity were experienced in combination. Responses of species from different locations are similar, but pattern of distribution in the field were not correlated with tolerance of environmental extremes—with the “amphibious” species from the sub-tropics being far more sensitive than its arid counterpart. These findings suggest that environmental variance within springs can influence patterns of distribution and abundance, particularly when extremes are experienced simultaneously over sustained time periods. But despite similarities in responses across species from these two spring complexes, no simple generalisations linking distribution and tolerance were discernible.