NEUTRAL THEORY OF QUANTITATIVE GENETIC VARIANCE IN AN ISLAND MODEL WITH LOCAL EXTINCTION AND COLONIZATION

Additive genetic variance maintained by mutation in a selectively neutral quantitative character is analyzed for an ideal population distributed on n islands, each with local effective size N, that exchange migrants at a small rate, m. In a stable population structure, the expected genetic variance maintained within islands is identical to that in a panmictic population of the same total size, regardless of the migration rate (m > 0). This result contrasts with Wright's classical conclusion, based on inbreeding coefficients, that at least one immigrant per island every other generation (Nm > ½) is necessary for the genetic variance within local populations to approach that under panmixia. The expected genetic variance maintained among islands is inversely proportional to m and increases with the number of islands, but is independent of N. Local extinction and colonization diminish the genetic variance maintained within islands by reducing the effective size of island populations through the founder effect, although the expected genetic variance within islands is nearly as large as that in a panmictic population of the same total effective size. If the founders of new colonies originate from more than one island, rates of local extinction and colonization larger than about twice the migration rate will substantially reduce the genetic variance maintained among islands. These results indicate the importance of mutation and migration in maintaining quantitative genetic variance within small local populations.     

COLOR PATTERN POLYMORPHISM IN THE LAKE ERIE WATER SNAKE,NERODIA SIPEDON INSULARUM

Populations of the water snake, Nerodia sipedon, on islands in western Lake Erie are polymorphic for color pattern. These populations include banded, intermediate, and unbanded morphs while surrounding mainland populations consist solely of the banded morph. The hypothesis that this polymorphism is maintained by strong selection and migration pressures is widely accepted. Unbanded morphs are apparently more cryptic along island shorelines while banded morphs are more cryptic on the mainland. Migration of banded morphs from the mainland explains their persistence in island populations. Data collected in a capture-mark-recapture program on six islands provide no evidence of differential selection among morphs; morph frequencies do not differ among age classes, between once-captured and multiply-captured snakes, or between scarred and unscarred snakes. Furthermore, herring gulls, the most common snake predators in the island area, appear to detect banded and unbanded model snakes with equal ease. High site fidelity of water snakes and the distribution of morphs among islands suggest that migration from the mainland is not common. However, islands close to each other are similar in morph frequency, and water snakes have colonized islands elsewhere in the Great Lakes, indicating that some migration does occur. Recently, the frequency of banded morphs has increased in island populations while adult population sizes have declined. This increase in banded morphs is interpreted as reflecting an increased impact of migration from the mainland into these reduced populations. One scenario for the evolution and maintenance of this polymorphism is that selection was important in establishing unbanded morphs in island populations as they became isolated from the mainland. As populations declined to their present size, the impact of migration from the mainland increased and is now swamping the effect of selection. Further declines in island population size may result in fixation of the banded morph.     

Exploring population genetic structure in three species of Lesser Antillean bats

We explore population genetic structure in phyllostomid bats (Ardops nichollsi, Brachyphylla cavernarum and Artibeus jamaicensis) from the northern Lesser Antilles by investigating the degree to which island populations are genetically differentiated. Our hypothesis, that the island populations are genetically distinct because of a combination of founding events, limited migration and genetic drift exacerbated by catastrophe-induced fluctuations in population size, is derived from a priori hypotheses erected in the literature. The first prediction of this hypothesis, that within each species island populations are monophyletic, was tested using a parametric bootstrap approach. Island monophyly could not be rejected in Ardops nichollsi (P = 0.718), but could be rejected in B. cavernarum (P < 0.001) and Artibeus jamaicensis (P < 0.001). A second prediction, that molecular variance is partitioned among islands, was tested using an amova and was rejected in each species [Ardops nichollsi (P = 0.697); B. cavernarum (P = 0.598); Artibeus jamaicensis (P = 0.763)]. In B. cavernarum and Artibeus jamaicensis, the admixture in mitochondrial haplotypes from islands separated by > 100 km of ocean can be explained either by interisland migration or by incomplete lineage sorting of ancestral polymorphism in the source population. As an a posteriori test of lineage sorting, we used simulations of gene trees within a population tree to suggest that lineage sorting is an unlikely explanation for the observed pattern of nonmonophyly in Artibeus jamaicensis (PW < 0.01; PSE = 0.04), but cannot be rejected in B. cavernarum (PW = 0.81; PSE = 0.79). A conservative interpretation of the molecular data is that island populations of Artibeus jamaicensis, although isolated geographically, are not isolated genetically.     

Genetic and phylogenetic consequences of island biogeography

Abstract.— Island biogeography theory predicts that the number of species on an island should increase with island size and decrease with island distance to the mainland. These predictions are generally well supported in comparative and experimental studies. These ecological, equilibrium predictions arise as a result of colonization and extinction processes. Because colonization and extinction are also important processes in evolution, we develop methods to test evolutionary predictions of island biogeography. We derive a population genetic model of island biogeography that incorporates island colonization, migration of individuals from the mainland, and extinction of island populations. The model provides a means of estimating the rates of migration and extinction from population genetic data. This model predicts that within an island population the distribution of genetic divergences with respect to the mainland source population should be bimodal, with much of the divergence dating to the colonization event. Across islands, this model predicts that populations on large islands should be on average more genetically divergent from mainland source populations than those on small islands. Likewise, populations on distant islands should be more divergent than those on close islands. Published observations of a larger proportion of endemic species on large and distant islands support these predictions.     

Population demographic history of a temperate shrub,Rhododendron weyrichii (Ericaceae), on continental islands of Japan and South Korea

Continental islands provide opportunities for testing the effects of isolation and migration on genetic variation in plant populations. In characteristic of continental islands is that the geographic connections between these islands, which are currently distinguished by seaways, have experienced fluctuations caused by sea‐level changes due to climate oscillations during the Quaternary. Plant populations on the islands have migrated between these islands via the exposed seafloors or been isolated. Here, we examined the demographic history of a temperate shrub, Rhododendron weyrichii, which is distributed in the southwestern parts of the Japanese archipelago and on an island of South Korea, using statistical phylogeographic approaches based on the DNA sequences of two chloroplast and eight nuclear loci in samples analyzed from 18 populations on eight continental islands, and palaeodistribution modeling. Time estimates for four island populations indicate that the durations of vicariance history are different between these populations, and these events have continued since the last glacial or may have predated the last glacial. The constancy or expansion of population sizes on the Japanese islands, and in contrast a bottleneck in population size on the Korean island Jeju, suggests that these islands may have provided different conditions for sustaining populations. The result of palaeodistribution modeling indicates that the longitudinal range of the species as a whole has not changed greatly since the last glacial maximum. These results indicate that exposed seafloors during the glacial period formed both effective and ineffective migration corridors. These findings may shed light on the effects of seafloor exposure on the migration of plants distributed across continental islands.     

Vicariance and marine migration in continental island populations of a frog endemic to the Atlantic Coastal forest

The theory of island biogeography is most often studied in the context of oceanic islands where all island inhabitants are descendants from founding events involving migration from mainland source populations. Far fewer studies have considered predictions of island biogeography in the case of continental islands, where island formation typically splits continuous populations and thus vicariance also contributes to the diversity of island populations. We examined one such case on continental islands in southeastern Brazil, to determine how classic island biogeography predictions and past vicariance explain the population genetic diversity of Thoropa taophora, a frog endemic to the Atlantic Coastal Forest. We used nuclear microsatellite markers to examine the genetic diversity of coastal and island populations of this species. We found that island isolation has a role in shaping the genetic diversity of continental island species, with island populations being significantly less diverse than coastal populations. However, area of the island and distance from coast had no significant effect on genetic diversity. We also found no significant differences between migration among coastal populations and migration to and from islands. We discuss how vicariance and the effects of continued migration between coastal and island populations interact to shape evolutionary patterns on continental islands.     

Metapopulations of moths on islands: a test of two contrasting models

1. We describe a generalized mainland-island metapopulation model which includes migration among the island populations. We test model predictions with quantitative data on more than 200 species of moths in two contrasting networks of small islands. The data include a direct measure of migration rate, based on trapping of moths on rocky skerries with no local populations of the vast majority of species.
2. We predicted that moths which are strong fliers but uncommon on the islands have a higher incidence on scattered islands than on islands in a group, because the latter 'compete' for immigrants from the mainland. In contrast, we predicted that weakly flying species with potentially large local populations on the islands occur more frequently on islands in a group due to enhanced colonization rate.
3. Both predicted patterns were observed. Island occupancy increased significantly with the number of individuals caught on the rocky skerries, which is our measure of migration rate from the mainland, supporting the basic assumption that the species occur on the islands in a balance between colonizations and extinctions.
4. These results demonstrate that the moth metapopulations on islands represent a mixture of Levins's and mainland-island metapopulations, and that the mixture is different for different species in the same landscape.     

Genetic structure of insular Mediterranean populations of the house mouse

The genetic structure of six western Mediterranean island populations of Mus musculus domesticus were investigated by means of an electrophoretic analysis at 34 loci and compared to that of five neighbouring mainland populations. No reduction in variability (H = 0.09 for both island and mainland samples) was observed in the island populations except for a very small island (6 ha), in which one-third of the variability was lost. Patterns of colonization inferred from a Wagner cluster analysis and the distribution of rare variants suggest that, although these island populations are clearly related to European mainland mice, their genetic structure is the result of multiple founding events from sources dispersed throughout the Mediterranean Basin. Furthermore, the presence of the same rare alleles in Sardinia, Corsica and Piana, suggest that the three islands share a common history of colonization.
Estimates of genetic distance and gene flow indicate that the level of genie differentiation is greater between island and mainland populations that between the latter due to geographic isolation. Multiple founder events and post-colonization evolution are the factors that best explain the observed levels of genie variability and differentiation in these Mediterranean islands.     

Evidence for frequency‐dependent selection maintaining polymorphism in the Batesian mimic Papilio polytes in multiple islands in the Ryukyus,Japan

Batesian mimicry is a well‐studied adaptation for predation avoidance, in which a mimetic species resembles an unpalatable model species. Batesian mimicry can be under positive selection because of the protection gained against predators, due to resemblance to unpalatable model species. However, in some mimetic species, nonmimetic individuals are present in populations, despite the benefits of mimicry. The mechanism for evolution of such mimetic polymorphism remains an open question. Here, we address the hypothesis that the abundance of mimics is limited by that of the models, leading to mimetic polymorphism. In addition, other forces such as the effects of common ancestry and/or isolation by distance may explain this phenomenon. To investigate this question, we focused on the butterfly, Papilio polytes, that exhibits mimetic polymorphism on multiple islands of the Ryukyus, Japan, and performed field surveys and genetic analysis. We found that the mimic ratio of P. polytes was strongly correlated with the model abundance observed on each of the five islands, suggesting negative frequency‐dependent selection is driving the evolution of polymorphism in P. polytes populations. Molecular phylogenetic analysis indicated that the southern island populations are the major source of genetic diversity, and the middle and northern island populations arose by relatively recent migration. This view was also supported by mismatch distribution and Tajima's D analyses, suggesting a recent population expansion on the middle and northern islands, and stable population persistence on the southern islands. The frequency of the mimetic forms within P. polytes populations is thus explained by variations in the model abundance rather than by population structure. Thus, we propose that predation pressure, rather than neutral forces, have shaped the Batesian mimicry polymorphism in P. polytes observed in the Ryukyus.     

Variation on islands: major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) polymorphism in populations of the Australian bush rat

Loss of genetic variation in small, isolated populations is commonly observed at neutral or nearly neutral loci. In this study, the loss of genetic variation was assessed in island populations for a locus of major histocompatibility complex (Mhc), a locus shown to be under the influence of balancing selection. A total of 36 alleles was found at the second exon of RT1.Ba in 14 island and two mainland populations of Rattus fuscipes greyii. Despite this high overall diversity, a substantial lack of variation was observed in the small island populations, with 13 islands supporting only one to two alleles. Two populations, Waldegrave and Williams Islands, showed moderately high levels of heterozygosity (52-56%) which were greater than expected under neutrality, suggesting the action of balancing selection. However, congruence between the level of variation at this Mhc locus and in previous allozyme electrophoresis and mitochondrial DNA studies highlights the dominant influence of genetic drift and population factors, such as bottlenecks and structuring in the founding population, in the loss of genetic variation in these small, isolated populations.     

Melanesian mtDNA complexity

Melanesian populations are known for their diversity, but it has been hard to grasp the pattern of the variation or its underlying dynamic. Using 1,223 mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from hypervariable regions 1 and 2 (HVR1 and HVR2) from 32 populations, we found the among-group variation is structured by island, island size, and also by language affiliation. The more isolated inland Papuan-speaking groups on the largest islands have the greatest distinctions, while shore dwelling populations are considerably less diverse (at the same time, within-group haplotype diversity is less in the most isolated groups). Persistent differences between shore and inland groups in effective population sizes and marital migration rates probably cause these differences. We also add 16 whole sequences to the Melanesian mtDNA phylogenies. We identify the likely origins of a number of the haplogroups and ancient branches in specific islands, point to some ancient mtDNA connections between Near Oceania and Australia, and show additional Holocene connections between Island Southeast Asia/Taiwan and Island Melanesia with branches of haplogroup E. Coalescence estimates based on synonymous transitions in the coding region suggest an initial settlement and expansion in the region at approximately 30-50,000 years before present (YBP), and a second important expansion from Island Southeast Asia/Taiwan during the interval approximately 3,500-8,000 YBP. However, there are some important variance components in molecular dating that have been overlooked, and the specific nature of ancestral (maternal) Austronesian influence in this region remains unresolved.     

Genetic and morphometric differentiation among island populations of two Norops lizards (Reptilia: Sauria: Polychrotidae) on independently colonized islands of the Islas de Bahia (Honduras)

Aim Anole lizards (Reptilia: Sauria: Polychrotidae) display remarkable morphological and genetic differentiation between island populations. Morphological differences between islands are probably due to both adaptive (e.g. differential resource exploitation and intra‐ or interspecific competition) and non‐adaptive differentiation in allopatry. Anoles are well known for their extreme diversity and rapid adaptive speciation on islands. The main aim of this study was to use tests of morphological and genetic differentiation to investigate the population structure and colonization history of islands of the Islas de Bahia, off the coast of Honduras. Location Five populations of Norops bicaorum and Norops lemurinus were sampled, four from islands of the Islas de Bahia and one from the mainland of Honduras. Methods Body size and weight differentiation were measured in order to test for significant differences between sexes and populations. In addition, individuals were genotyped using the amplified fragment length polymorphism technique. Bayesian model‐based and assignment/exclusion methods were used to study genetic differentiation between island and mainland populations and to test colonization hypotheses. Results Assignment tests suggested migration from the mainland to the Cayos Cochinos, and from there independently to both Utila and Roatán, whereas migration between Utila and Roatán was lacking. Migration from the mainland to Utila was inferred, but was much less frequent. Morphologically, individuals from Utila appeared to be significantly different in comparison with all other localities. Significant differentiation between males of Roatán and the mainland was found in body size, whereas no significant difference was detected between the mainland and the Cayos Cochinos. Main conclusions Significant genetic and morphological differentiation was found among populations. A stepping‐stone model for colonization, in combination with an independent migration to Utila and Roatán, was suggested by assignment tests and was compatible with the observed morphological differentiation.     

Genetic variation and island biogreography: Microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA variation in island populations of the Australian bush rat, Rattus fuscipes greyii

To understand the impact of various factors on the maintenance of genetic variation in natural populations, we need to focus on situations where at least some of these factors are removed or controlled. In this study, we used highly variable, presumably neutral, microsatellite and mtDNA markers to assess the nature of genetic variation in 14 island and two mainland populations of the Australian bush rat, where there is no migration between islands. Thus we are controlling for selection and gene flow. Both marker sets revealed low levels of diversity within the small island populations and extreme differentiation between populations. For six microsatellite loci, all of the small island populations had less genetic variation than the mainland populations; reduction in allelic diversity was more pronounced than loss of heterozygosity. Kangaroo Island, the large island population, had similar levels of diversity to the mainland populations. A 442 base pair (bp) section of the mtDNA control region was screened for variation by outgroup heteroduplex analysis/temperature gradient gel electrophoresis (OHA/TGGE). Only three of the 13 small island populations showed haplotypic diversity: Gambier (2), Waldegrave (2), and Eyere (3). The level of haplotypic diversity in the small island populations was similar to that on the mainland, most likely reflecting a recent population bottleneck on the mainland. In contrast, Kangaroo Island had 9 mtDNA haplotypes. The dominant factor influencing genetic diversity on the islands was island size. No correlation was detected between genetic diversity and the time since isolation or distance form the mainland. The combination of genetic drift within and complete isolation among the small island populations has resulted in rapid and extreme population divergence. Population pair-wise comparisons of allele frequency distributions showed significant differences for all populations for all loci (F _st = 0.11–0.84, R _st = 0.07–0.99). For the mtDNA control region, 92.6% of variation was apportioned between populations; only the Pearson islands shared a haplotype. Mantel tests of pair-wise genetic distance with pair-wise geographic distance showed no significant geographical clustering of haplotypes. However, population substructuring was detected within populations where sampling was conducted over a broader geographical range, as indicated by departures from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Thus substructuring in the ancestral population cannot be ruled out. The dominant evolutionary forces on the islands, after the initial founder event, are stochastic population processes such as genetic drift and mutation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Extranuclear differentiation and gene flow in the finite island model

Use of sequence information from extranuclear genomes to examine deme structure in natural populations has been hampered by lack of clear linkage between sequence relatedness and rates of mutation and migration among demes. Here, we approach this problem in two complementary ways. First, we develop a model of extranuclear genomes in a population divided into a finite number of demes. Sex-dependent migration, neutral mutation, unequal genetic contribution of separate sexes and random genetic drift in each deme are incorporated for generality. From this model, we derive the relationship between gene identity probabilities (between and within demes) and migration rate, mutation rate and effective deme size. Second, we show how within- and between-deme identity probabilities may be calculated from restriction maps of mitochondrial (mt) DNA. These results, when coupled with our results on gene flow and genetic differentiation, allow estimation of relative interdeme gene flow when deme sizes are constant and genetic variants are selectively neutral. We illustrate use of our results by reanalyzing published data on mtDNA in mouse populations from around the world and show that their geographic differentiation is consistent with an island model of deme structure.     

THE DIVERGENCE OF NEUTRAL QUANTITATIVE CHARACTERS AMONG PARTIALLY ISOLATED POPULATIONS

The neutral model of phenotypic evolution has yielded several simple predictions about the long-term rates of between-population divergence of polygenic traits and about the equilibrium level of within-population variance when mutation and random genetic drift are the sole evolutionary forces. These conclusions must be modified if populations are only partially isolated. A quantitative model is presented for the development of within- and between-population variance for neutral quantitative characters in pairs of populations with arbitrary effective sizes and migration rates. Both the variance in the base population and subsequent variance generated by mutation are considered, and several dynamical and equilibrium properties are shown to be adequately described by simple approximations. The resultant formulations provide some insight into the sensitivity of measures of morphological distance to gene flow, the necessity of isolation for the accumulation of variation between incipient species, and the consequences of gene flow into captive populations of endangered species.     

Predicting community structure in snakes on Eastern Nearctic islands using ecological neutral theory and phylogenetic methods

Predicting species presence and richness on islands is important for understanding the origins of communities and how likely it is that species will disperse and resist extinction. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography (ETIB) and, as a simple model of sampling abundances, the unified neutral theory of biodiversity (UNTB), predict that in situations where mainland to island migration is high, species-abundance relationships explain the presence of taxa on islands. Thus, more abundant mainland species should have a higher probability of occurring on adjacent islands. In contrast to UNTB, if certain groups have traits that permit them to disperse to islands better than other taxa, then phylogeny may be more predictive of which taxa will occur on islands. Taking surveys of 54 island snake communities in the Eastern Nearctic along with mainland communities that have abundance data for each species, we use phylogenetic assembly methods and UNTB estimates to predict island communities. Species richness is predicted by island area, whereas turnover from the mainland to island communities is random with respect to phylogeny. Community structure appears to be ecologically neutral and abundance on the mainland is the best predictor of presence on islands. With regard to young and proximate islands, where allopatric or cladogenetic speciation is not a factor, we find that simple neutral models following UNTB and ETIB predict the structure of island communities.     

Genetic structure of house mouse (Mus musculus Linnaeus 1758) populations in the Atlantic archipelago of the Azores: colonization and dispersal

We analyzed the genetic structure and relationships of house mouse (Mus musculus) populations in the remote Atlantic archipelago of the Azores using nuclear sequences and microsatellites. We typed Btk and Zfy2 to confirm that the subspecies Mus musculus domesticus was the predominant genome in the archipelago. Nineteen microsatellite loci (one per autosome) were typed in a total of 380 individuals from all nine Azorean islands, the neighbouring Madeiran archipelago (Madeira and Porto Santo islands), and mainland Portugal. Levels of heterozygosity were high on the islands, arguing against population bottlenecking. The Azorean house mouse populations were differentiated from the Portuguese and Madeiran populations and no evidence of recent migration between the three was obtained. Within the Azores, the Eastern, Western, and Central island groups tended to act as separate genetic units for house mice, with some exceptions. In particular, there was evidence of recent migration events among islands of the Central island group, whose populations were relatively undifferentiated. Santa Maria had genetically distinctive mice, which may relate to its colonization history. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London     

Distribution of genetic diversity within and between Western Mediterranean island populations of the black rat Rattus rattus (L. 1758)

Genetic diversity was estimated by allozyme analysis at 26 loci in black rat populations (Rattus rattus) from 15 western Mediterranean islands (Hyéres, Corsica, Sardinia and related islets). Although overall variability levels were low (H = 0.025), the mean heterozygosity values for the islands were similar to those for three reference mainland populations. Within the islands, however, genetic diversity varied in relation to island size and geographic isolation. In particular, most small insular populations were significantly more variable than those on both large and isolated islands. The generic relationships between island populations were established by F_ST analyses indicating possible geographic origins and patterns of colonization. The maintenance of unexpectedly high levels of variability in the small island populations is discussed in relation to changes in the demographic and social structure observed in these populations. These island populations of black rat illustrate how genetic diversity may be efficiently maintained in a series of interconnected spatially fragmented populations.     

Genetic diversity,structure, and demography of Pandanus boninensis (Pandanaceae) with sea drifted seeds,endemic to the Ogasawara Islands of Japan: Comparison between young and old islands

Pandanus boninensis, endemic to the Ogasawara Islands, Japan, is distributed on both the older Bonin and younger Volcano Islands. In this study, we conducted population genetic analyses of P. boninensis on these islands to examine the population diversity and structure across old and young islands, to assess potential differences in population demography with island age, and to collect any evidence of migration between old and young islands. We found that the genetic diversity of expressed sequence tag (EST)–based microsatellite (SSR) markers, the nucleotide diversity of nuclear DNA sequences, and the haplotype diversity of chloroplast DNA on young islands were lower than those on old islands. Clustering analyses of EST‐SSR indicated that populations on old islands were strongly diverged from those on young islands. Approximate Bayesian computation analysis of EST‐SSR suggested that population expansion occurred on old islands while population reduction occurred on young islands. We also found evidence of migration among old islands (mostly from south to north), while it appears that there have been very few migration events between old and young islands. These differences could be due to the fact that young islands tend to be geographically isolated and support smaller populations that began a shorter time ago from limited founders. The P. boninensis populations on the Volcano Islands are interesting from an evolutionary perspective as they constitute a classic example of the early stages of progressive colonization on oceanic islands with small effective population sizes and low genetic diversity.     

Testing for Selective Neutrality of Electrophoretically Detectable Protein Polymorphisms

The statistical assessment of gene-frequency data on protein polymorphisms in natural populations remains a contentious issue. Here we formulate a test of whether polymorphisms detected by electrophoresis are in accordance with the stepwise, or charge-state, model of mutation in finite populations in the absence of selection. First, estimates of the model parameters are derived by minimizing chi-square deviations of the observed frequencies of genotypes with alleles (0,1,2...) units apart from their theoretical expected values. Then the remaining deviation is tested under the null hypothesis of neutrality. The procedure was found to be conservative for false rejections in simulation data. We applied the test to Ayala and Tracey 's data on 27 allozymic loci in six populations of Drosophila willistoni . About one-quarter of polymorphic loci showed significant departure from the neutral theory predictions in virtually all populations. A further quarter showed significant departure in some populations. The remaining data showed an acceptable fit to the charge state model. A predominating mode of selection was selection against alleles associated with extreme electrophoretic mobilities. The advantageous properties and the difficulties of the procedure are discussed.