Markov chain Monte Carlo for mapping a quantitative trait locus in outbred populations

A Bayesian approach is presented for mapping a quantitative trait locus (QTL) using the 'Fernando and Grossman' multivariate Normal approximation to QTL inheritance. For this model, a Bayesian implementation that includes QTL position is problematic because standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms do not mix, i.e. the QTL position gets stuck in one marker interval. This is because of the dependence of the covariance structure for the QTL effects on the adjacent markers and may be typical of the 'Fernando and Grossman' model. A relatively new MCMC technique, simulated tempering, allows mixing and so makes possible inferences about QTL position based on marginal posterior probabilities. The model was implemented for estimating variance ratios and QTL position using a continuous grid of allowed positions and was applied to simulated data of a standard granddaughter design. The results showed a smooth mixing of QTL position after implementation of the simulated tempering sampler. In this implementation, map distance between QTL and its flanking markers was artificially stretched to reduce the dependence of markers and covariance. The method generalizes easily to more complicated applications and can ultimately contribute to QTL mapping in complex, heterogeneous, human, animal or plant populations.     

Bayesian mapping of quantitative trait loci under the identity-by-descent-based variance component model

Variance component analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) is an important strategy of genetic mapping for complex traits in humans. The method is robust because it can handle an arbitrary number of alleles with arbitrary modes of gene actions. The variance component method is usually implemented using the proportion of alleles with identity-by-descent (IBD) shared by relatives. As a result, information about marker linkage phases in the parents is not required. The method has been studied extensively under either the maximum-likelihood framework or the sib-pair regression paradigm. However, virtually all investigations are limited to normally distributed traits under a single QTL model. In this study, we develop a Bayes method to map multiple QTL. We also extend the Bayesian mapping procedure to identify QTL responsible for the variation of complex binary diseases in humans under a threshold model. The method can also treat the number of QTL as a parameter and infer its posterior distribution. We use the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method to infer the posterior distributions of parameters of interest. The Bayesian mapping procedure ends with an estimation of the joint posterior distribution of the number of QTL and the locations and variances of the identified QTL. Utilities of the method are demonstrated using a simulated population consisting of multiple full-sib families.     

Bayes factors for detection of Quantitative Trait Loci

A fundamental issue in quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping is to determine the plausibility of the presence of a QTL at a given genome location. Bayesian analysis offers an attractive way of testing alternative models (here, QTL vs. no-QTL) via the Bayes factor. There have been several numerical approaches to computing the Bayes factor, mostly based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), but these strategies are subject to numerical or stability problems. We propose a simple and stable approach to calculating the Bayes factor between nested models. The procedure is based on a reparameterization of a variance component model in terms of intra-class correlation. The Bayes factor can then be easily calculated from the output of a MCMC scheme by averaging conditional densities at the null intra-class correlation. We studied the performance of the method using simulation. We applied this approach to QTL analysis in an outbred population. We also compared it with the Likelihood Ratio Test and we analyzed its stability. Simulation results were very similar to the simulated parameters. The posterior probability of the QTL model increases as the QTL effect does. The location of the QTL was also correctly obtained. The use of meta-analysis is suggested from the properties of the Bayes factor.     

Linkage disequilibrium fine mapping of quantitative trait loci: A simulation study

Recently, the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to locate genes which affect quantitative traits (QTL) has received an increasing interest, but the plausibility of fine mapping using linkage disequilibrium techniques for QTL has not been well studied. The main objectives of this work were to (1) measure the extent and pattern of LD between a putative QTL and nearby markers in finite populations and (2) investigate the usefulness of LD in fine mapping QTL in simulated populations using a dense map of multiallelic or biallelic marker loci. The test of association between a marker and QTL and the power of the test were calculated based on single-marker regression analysis. The results show the presence of substantial linkage disequilibrium with closely linked marker loci after 100 to 200 generations of random mating. Although the power to test the association with a frequent QTL of large effect was satisfactory, the power was low for the QTL with a small effect and/or low frequency. More powerful, multi-locus methods may be required to map low frequent QTL with small genetic effects, as well as combining both linkage and linkage disequilibrium information. The results also showed that multiallelic markers are more useful than biallelic markers to detect linkage disequilibrium and association at an equal distance.     

Study on mapping Quantitative Trait Loci for animal complex binary traits using Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

It is a challenging issue to map Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) underlying complex discrete traits,which usually show discontinuous distribution and less information,using conventional statisti-cal methods. Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo (Bayesian-MCMC) approach is the key procedure in mapping QTL for complex binary traits,which provides a complete posterior distribution for QTL parameters using all prior information. As a consequence,Bayesian estimates of all interested vari-ables can be obtained straightforwardly basing on their posterior samples simulated by the MCMC algorithm. In our study,utilities of Bayesian-MCMC are demonstrated using simulated several ani-mal outbred full-sib families with different family structures for a complex binary trait underlied by both a QTL and polygene. Under the Identity-by-Descent-Based variance component random model,three samplers basing on MCMC,including Gibbs sampling,Metropolis algorithm and reversible jump MCMC,were implemented to generate the joint posterior distribution of all unknowns so that the QTL parameters were obtained by Bayesian statistical inferring. The results showed that Bayesian-MCMC approach could work well and robust under different family structures and QTL effects. As family size increases and the number of family decreases,the accuracy of the parameter estimates will be im-proved. When the true QTL has a small effect,using outbred population experiment design with large family size is the optimal mapping strategy.     

Study on mapping Quantitative Trait Loci for animal complex binary traits using Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

It is a challenging issue to map Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) underlying complex discrete traits, which usually show discontinuous distribution and less information, using conventional statistical methods. Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo (Bayesian-MCMC) approach is the key procedure in mapping QTL for complex binary traits, which provides a complete posterior distribution for QTL parameters using all prior information. As a consequence, Bayesian estimates of all interested variables can be obtained straightforwardly basing on their posterior samples simulated by the MCMC algorithm. In our study, utilities of Bayesian-MCMC are demonstrated using simulated several animal outbred full-sib families with different family structures for a complex binary trait underlied by both a QTL and polygene. Under the Identity-by-Descent-Based variance component random model, three samplers basing on MCMC, including Gibbs sampling, Metropolis algorithm and reversible jump MCMC, were implemented to generate the joint posterior distribution of all unknowns so that the QTL parameters were obtained by Bayesian statistical inferring. The results showed that Bayesian-MCMC approach could work well and robust under different family structures and QTL effects. As family size increases and the number of family decreases, the accuracy of the parameter estimates will be improved. When the true QTL has a small effect, using outbred population experiment design with large family size is the optimal mapping strategy.     

Genome-wide associations for fertility traits in Holstein–Friesian dairy cows using data from experimental research herds in four European countries

Genome-wide association studies for difficult-to-measure traits are generally limited by the sample population size with accurate phenotypic data. The objective of this study was to utilise data on primiparous Holstein–Friesian cows from experimental farms in Ireland, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Sweden to identify genomic regions associated with traditional measures of fertility, as well as a fertility phenotype derived from milk progesterone profiles. Traditional fertility measures investigated were days to first heat, days to first service, pregnancy rate to first service, number of services and calving interval (CI); post-partum interval to the commencement of luteal activity (CLA) was derived using routine milk progesterone assays. Phenotypic and genotypic data on 37 590 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were available for up to 1570 primiparous cows. Genetic parameters were estimated using linear animal models, and univariate and bivariate genome-wide association analyses were undertaken using Bayesian stochastic search variable selection performed using Gibbs sampling. Heritability estimates of the traditional fertility traits varied from 0.03 to 0.16; the heritability for CLA was 0.13. The posterior quantitative trait locus (QTL) probabilities, across the genome, for the traditional fertility measures were all <0.021. Posterior QTL probabilities of 0.060 and 0.045 were observed for CLA on SNPs each on chromosome 2 and chromosome 21, respectively, in the univariate analyses; these probabilities increased when CLA was included in the bivariate analyses with the traditional fertility traits. For example, in the bivariate analysis with CI, the posterior QTL probability of the two aforementioned SNPs were 0.662 and 0.123. Candidate genes in the vicinity of these SNPs are discussed. The results from this study suggest that the power of genome-wide association studies in cattle may be increased by sharing of data and also possibly by using physiological measures of the trait under investigation.     

QTL fine mapping with Bayes C(π): a simulation study

Background

Accurate QTL mapping is a prerequisite in the search for causative mutations. Bayesian genomic selection models that analyse many markers simultaneously should provide more accurate QTL detection results than single-marker models. Our objectives were to (a) evaluate by simulation the influence of heritability, number of QTL and number of records on the accuracy of QTL mapping with Bayes Cπ and Bayes C; (b) estimate the QTL status (homozygous vs. heterozygous) of the individuals analysed. This study focussed on the ten largest detected QTL, assuming they are candidates for further characterization.

Methods

Our simulations were based on a true dairy cattle population genotyped for 38 277 phased markers. Some of these markers were considered biallelic QTL and used to generate corresponding phenotypes. Different numbers of records (4387 and 1500), heritability values (0.1, 0.4 and 0.7) and numbers of QTL (10, 100 and 1000) were studied. QTL detection was based on the posterior inclusion probability for individual markers, or on the sum of the posterior inclusion probabilities for consecutive markers, estimated using Bayes C or Bayes Cπ. The QTL status of the individuals was derived from the contrast between the sums of the SNP allelic effects of their chromosomal segments.

Results

The proportion of markers with null effect (π) frequently did not reach convergence, leading to poor results for Bayes Cπ in QTL detection. Fixing π led to better results. Detection of the largest QTL was most accurate for medium to high heritability, for low to moderate numbers of QTL, and with a large number of records. The QTL status was accurately inferred when the distribution of the contrast between chromosomal segment effects was bimodal.

Conclusions

QTL detection is feasible with Bayes C. For QTL detection, it is recommended to use a large dataset and to focus on highly heritable traits and on the largest QTL. QTL statuses were inferred based on the distribution of the contrast between chromosomal segment effects.     

Bayesian methods for quantitative trait loci mapping based on model selection: approximate analysis using the Bayesian information criterion.

We describe an approximate method for the analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) based on model selection from multiple regression models with trait values regressed on marker genotypes, using a modification of the easily calculated Bayesian information criterion to estimate the posterior probability of models with various subsets of markers as variables. The BIC-delta criterion, with the parameter delta increasing the penalty for additional variables in a model, is further modified to incorporate prior information, and missing values are handled by multiple imputation. Marginal probabilities for model sizes are calculated, and the posterior probability of nonzero model size is interpreted as the posterior probability of existence of a QTL linked to one or more markers. The method is demonstrated on analysis of associations between wood density and markers on two linkage groups in Pinus radiata. Selection bias, which is the bias that results from using the same data to both select the variables in a model and estimate the coefficients, is shown to be a problem for commonly used non-Bayesian methods for QTL mapping, which do not average over alternative possible models that are consistent with the data.     

A Decision Rule for Quantitative Trait Locus Detection Under the Extended Bayesian LASSO Model

Bayesian shrinkage analysis is arguably the state-of-the-art technique for large-scale multiple quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping. However, when the shrinkage model does not involve indicator variables for marker inclusion, QTL detection remains heavily dependent on significance thresholds derived from phenotype permutation under the null hypothesis of no phenotype-to-genotype association. This approach is computationally intensive and more importantly, the hypothetical data generation at the heart of the permutation-based method violates the Bayesian philosophy. Here we propose a fully Bayesian decision rule for QTL detection under the recently introduced extended Bayesian LASSO for QTL mapping. Our new decision rule is free of any hypothetical data generation and relies on the well-established Bayes factors for evaluating the evidence for QTL presence at any locus. Simulation results demonstrate the remarkable performance of our decision rule. An application to real-world data is considered as well.     

A Bayesian method for simultaneously detecting Mendelian and imprinted quantitative trait loci in experimental crosses of outbred species

Genomic imprinting is interpreted as a phenomenon, in which some genes inherited from one parent are not completely expressed due to modification of the genome caused during gametogenesis. Subsequently, the expression level of an allele at the imprinted gene is changed dependent on the parental origin, which is referred to as the parent-of-origin effect. In livestock, some QTL for reproductive performance and meat productivity have been reported to be imprinted. So far, methods detecting imprinted QTL have been proposed on the basis of interval mapping, where only a single QTL was tested at a time. In this study, we developed a Bayesian method for simultaneously mapping multiple QTL, allowing the inference about expression modes of QTL in an outbred F2 family. The inference about whether a QTL is Mendelian or imprinted was made using Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation by comparing the goodness-of-fits between models, assuming the presence and the absence of parent-of-origin effect at a QTL. We showed by the analyses of simulated data sets that the Bayesian method can effectively detect both Mendelian QTL and imprinted QTL.     

The Use of Multiple Markers in a Bayesian Method for Mapping Quantitative Trait Loci

Information on multiple linked genetic markers was used in a Bayesian method for the statistical mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL). Bayesian parameter estimation and hypothesis testing were implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Variables sampled were the augmented data (marker-QTL genotypes, polygenic effects), an indicator variable for linkage or nonlinkage, and the parameters. The parameter vector included allele frequencies at the markers and the QTL, map distances of the markers and the QTL, QTL substitution effect, and polygenic and residual variances. The criterion for QTL detection was the marginal posterior probability of a QTL being located on the chromosome carrying the markers. The method was evaluated empirically by analyzing simulated granddaughter designs consisting of 2000 sons, 20 related sires, and their ancestors.     

A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach for Mapping Dynamic Quantitative Traits

In biology, many quantitative traits are dynamic in nature. They can often be described by some smooth functions or curves. A joint analysis of all the repeated measurements of the dynamic traits by functional quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping methods has the benefits to (1) understand the genetic control of the whole dynamic process of the quantitative traits and (2) improve the statistical power to detect QTL. One crucial issue in functional QTL mapping is how to correctly describe the smoothness of trajectories of functional valued traits. We develop an efficient Bayesian nonparametric multiple-loci procedure for mapping dynamic traits. The method uses the Bayesian P-splines with (nonparametric) B-spline bases to specify the functional form of a QTL trajectory and a random walk prior to automatically determine its degree of smoothness. An efficient deterministic variational Bayes algorithm is used to implement both (1) the search of an optimal subset of QTL among large marker panels and (2) estimation of the genetic effects of the selected QTL changing over time. Our method can be fast even on some large-scale data sets. The advantages of our method are illustrated on both simulated and real data sets.     

Estimation of quantitative trait locus effects with epistasis by variational Bayes algorithms

Bayesian hierarchical shrinkage methods have been widely used for quantitative trait locus mapping. From the computational perspective, the application of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is not optimal for high-dimensional problems such as the ones arising in epistatic analysis. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation can be a faster alternative, but it usually produces only point estimates without providing any measures of uncertainty (i.e., interval estimates). The variational Bayes method, stemming from the mean field theory in theoretical physics, is regarded as a compromise between MAP and MCMC estimation, which can be efficiently computed and produces the uncertainty measures of the estimates. Furthermore, variational Bayes methods can be regarded as the extension of traditional expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms and can be applied to a broader class of Bayesian models. Thus, the use of variational Bayes algorithms based on three hierarchical shrinkage models including Bayesian adaptive shrinkage, Bayesian LASSO, and extended Bayesian LASSO is proposed here. These methods performed generally well and were found to be highly competitive with their MCMC counterparts in our example analyses. The use of posterior credible intervals and permutation tests are considered for decision making between quantitative trait loci (QTL) and non-QTL. The performance of the presented models is also compared with R/qtlbim and R/BhGLM packages, using a previously studied simulated public epistatic data set.     

QTL mapping using a memetic algorithm with modifications of BIC as fitness function

The problem of locating quantitative trait loci (QTL) for experimental populations can be approached by multiple regression analysis. In this context variable selection using a modification of the Bayesian Information Criterion (mBIC) has been well established in the past. In this article a memetic algorithm (MA) is introduced to find the model which minimizes the selection criterion. Apart from mBIC also a second modification (mBIC2) is considered, which has the property of controlling the false discovery rate. Given the Bayesian nature of our selection criteria, we are not only interested in finding the best model, but also in computing marker posterior probabilities using all models visited by MA. In a simulation study MA (with mBIC and mBIC2) is compared with a parallel genetic algorithm (PGA) which has been previously suggested for QTL mapping. It turns out that MA in combination with mBIC2 performs best, where determining QTL positions based on marker posterior probabilities yields even better results than using the best model selected by MA. Finally we consider a real data set from the literature and show that MA can also be extended to multiple interval mapping, which potentially increases the precision with which the exact location of QTLs can be estimated.     

Bayesian mapping of quantitative trait loci for multiple complex traits with the use of variance components

Complex traits important for humans are often correlated phenotypically and genetically. Joint mapping of quantitative-trait loci (QTLs) for multiple correlated traits plays an important role in unraveling the genetic architecture of complex traits. Compared with single-trait analysis, joint mapping addresses more questions and has advantages for power of QTL detection and precision of parameter estimation. Some statistical methods have been developed to map QTLs underlying multiple traits, most of which are based on maximum-likelihood methods. We develop here a multivariate version of the Bayes methodology for joint mapping of QTLs, using the Markov chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We adopt a variance-components method to model complex traits in outbred populations (e.g., humans). The method is robust, can deal with an arbitrary number of alleles with arbitrary patterns of gene actions (such as additive and dominant), and allows for multiple phenotype data of various types in the joint analysis (e.g., multiple continuous traits and mixtures of continuous traits and discrete traits). Under a Bayesian framework, parameters--including the number of QTLs--are estimated on the basis of their marginal posterior samples, which are generated through two samplers, the Gibbs sampler and the reversible-jump MCMC. In addition, we calculate the Bayes factor related to each identified QTL, to test coincident linkage versus pleiotropy. The performance of our method is evaluated in simulations with full-sib families. The results show that our proposed Bayesian joint-mapping method performs well for mapping multiple QTLs in situations of either bivariate continuous traits or mixed data types. Compared with the analysis for each trait separately, Bayesian joint mapping improves statistical power, provides stronger evidence of QTL detection, and increases precision in estimation of parameter and QTL position. We also applied the proposed method to a set of real data and detected a coincident linkage responsible for determining bone mineral density and areal bone size of wrist in humans.     

Bayesian mapping of genome-wide epistatic imprinted loci for quantitative traits

Genomic imprinting, an epigenetic phenomenon of parent-of-origin-specific gene expression, has been widely observed in plants, animals, and humans. To detect imprinting genes influencing quantitative traits, the least squares and maximum likelihood approaches for fitting a single quantitative trait locus (QTL) and Bayesian methods for simultaneously modeling multiple QTL have been adopted, respectively, in various studies. However, most of these studies have only estimated imprinting main effects and thus ignored imprinting epistatic effects. In the presence of extremely complex genomic imprinting architectures, we introduce a Bayesian model selection method to analyze the multiple interacting imprinted QTL (iQTL) model. This approach will greatly enhance the computational efficiency through setting the upper bound of the number of QTLs and performing selective sampling for QTL parameters. The imprinting types of detected main-effect QTLs can be estimated from the Bayes factor statistic formulated by the posterior probabilities for the genetic effects being compared. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by several simulation experiments. Moreover, this method is applied to dissect the imprinting genetic architecture for body weight in mouse and fruit weight in tomato. Matlab code for implementing this approach will be available from the authors upon request.     

Detection of quantitative trait loci in outbred populations with incomplete marker data.

Augmentation of marker genotypes for ungenotyped individuals is implemented in a Bayesian approach via the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Marker data on relatives and phenotypes are combined to compute conditional posterior probabilities for marker genotypes of ungenotyped individuals. The presented procedure allows the analysis of complex pedigrees with ungenotyped individuals to detect segregating quantitative trait loci (QTL). Allelic effects at the QTL were assumed to follow a normal distribution with a covariance matrix based on known QTL position and identity by descent probabilities derived from flanking markers. The Bayesian approach estimates variance due to the single QTL, together with polygenic and residual variance. The method was empirically tested through analyzing simulated data from a complex granddaughter design. Ungenotyped dams were related to one or more sons or grandsires in the design. Heterozygosity of the marker loci and size of QTL were varied. Simulation results indicated a significant increase in power when ungenotyped dams were included in the analysis.     

A model for quantitative trait loci mapping,linkage phase,and segregation pattern estimation for a full-sib progeny

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping is an important approach for the study of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits. For perennial species, inbred lines cannot be obtained due to inbreed depression and a long juvenile period. Instead, linkage mapping can be performed by using a full-sib progeny. This creates a complex scenario because both markers and QTL alleles can have different segregation patterns as well as different linkage phases between them. We present a two-step method for QTL mapping using full-sib progeny based on composite interval mapping (i.e., interval mapping with cofactors), considering an integrated genetic map with markers with different segregation patterns and conditional probabilities obtained by a multipoint approach. The model is based on three orthogonal contrasts to estimate the additive effect (one in each parent) and dominance effect. These estimatives are obtained using the EM algorithm. In the first step, the genome is scanned to detect QTL. After, segregation pattern and linkage phases between QTL and markers are estimated. A simulated example is presented to validate the methodology. In general, the new model is more effective than existing approaches, because it can reveal QTL present in a full-sib progeny that segregates in any pattern present and can also identify dominance effects. Also, the inclusion of cofactors provided more statistical power for QTL mapping.     

Point and interval estimates of marker location in radiation hybrid mapping.

Radiation hybrid (RH) mapping is a powerful method for ordering loci on chromosomes and for estimating the distances between them. RH mapping is currently used to construct both framework maps, in which all markers are ordered with high confidence (e.g., 1,000:1 relative maximum likelihood), and comprehensive maps, which include markers with less-confident placement. To deal with uncertainty in the order and location of markers, marker positions may be estimated conditional on the most likely marker order, plausible intervals for nonframework markers may be indicated on a framework map, or bins of markers may be constructed. We propose a statistical method for estimating marker position that combines information from all plausible marker orders, gives a measure of uncertainty in location for each marker, and provides an alternative to the current practice of binning. Assuming that the prior distribution for the retention probabilities is uniform and that the marker loci are distributed independently and uniformly on an interval of specified length, we calculate the posterior distribution of marker position for each marker. The median or mean of this distribution provides a point estimate of marker location. An interval estimate of marker location may be constructed either by using the 100(alpha/2) and 100(1-alpha)/2 percentiles of the distribution to form a 100(1-alpha) % posterior credible interval or by calculating the shortest 100(1-alpha) % posterior credible interval. These point and interval estimates take into account ordering uncertainty and do not depend on the assumption of a particular marker order. We evaluate the performance of the estimates on the basis of results from simulated data and illustrate the method with two examples.